Footballguys

Tucker Kraft is Love's third-most common partner in optimal lineups at 23 percent, behind Watson at 34 percent and Golden at 30 percent.

Watson is Love's most common partner in optimal lineups at 34 percent. Given how popular Golden is projected to be, the source would lean toward pairing Love with Watson.

Sam LaPorta is one of the preferred ways to get exposure to the Lions game instead of rostering Goff. The source's simulation would rather get exposure to the Lions through Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the preferred ways to get exposure to the Lions game instead of rostering Goff. The source's simulation would rather get exposure to the Lions through Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta.

Penix is rostered at 8.1 percent against 4.0 percent optimal, making him one of the chalk quarterback options the source would be underweight on.

Stafford is rostered at 8.4 percent against 6.7 percent optimal, making him one of the chalk quarterback options the source would be underweight on. Stafford also carries the Nacua risk.

Purdy is rostered at 9.6 percent against 7.9 percent optimal, making him one of the chalk quarterback options the source would be underweight on.

Burrow lands in 7.6 percent optimal against 5.4 percent rostered, making him under-rostered. He threw for four touchdowns against Miami in Week 5 before the bye, and he had 428 yards against Jacksonville the week before. The source projects him at about 37 pass attempts, 271 yards, and two touchdowns, and Cincinnati has a 25-point implied total in Baltimore. He also has a strong track record against the Ravens, averaging 327 passing yards with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions over his last four full games against them, including 392 yards and five touchdowns and 428 yards and four touchdowns in the two 2024 meetings.

Young is good chalk at 7.3 percent rostered against 6.2 percent optimal. He has thrown for at least 281 yards in every game this season (1,549 yards, 11 touchdowns and two interceptions through five games), and he gets a Tampa Bay defense that will be without safety Antoine Winfield Jr. The source projects him at about 36 pass attempts, 275 yards, and nearly two touchdowns, and Carolina is a 3-point home favorite with a 23.75 implied total. Coker is his most common partner in optimal lineups at 46 percent, followed by McMillan at 36 percent. This is one of those good but not great spots that might fly slightly under the radar with so many teams projected for 24 or more points.

Love is good chalk at 14.9 percent rostered against 14.0 percent optimal, the most optimal lineups of any quarterback on the slate. He has thrown for 1,684 yards, 11 touchdowns, and four interceptions through six games. He practiced in full on Thursday and carries no designation after a back injury put him on the report early in the week. The source projects him at about 36 pass attempts, 309 yards, and nearly two touchdowns against a Detroit defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, in the highest-total game on the slate. Watson is his most common partner in optimal lineups at 34 percent, followed by Golden at 30 percent and Tucker Kraft at 23 percent.

Henry lands in 14.9 percent optimal against 10.1 percent rostered, making him under-rostered. Ravens players fill 40 percent of optimal lineups against 33 percent of the field's roster spots, and Henry is the main reason for this gap.

Chase is under-rostered coming out of Cincinnati's bye. Bengals players fill 51 percent of optimal lineups against 44 percent of the field's projected roster spots, mostly because Chase and Joe Burrow are both under-rostered.

Williams is good chalk against a Las Vegas defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs.

Bowers is right in line with the field in terms of rostering, but the matchup is a concern since the Rams have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season.

Cousins lands in 5.9 percent optimal against 2.9 percent rostered, making him under-rostered. Raiders players fill 50 percent of optimal lineups against 42 percent of the field's projected roster spots, and Cousins is one of the main reasons for this gap.

Allen's workload is uncertain as the source's projection splits the work between Hall and Braelon Allen, so neither one stands out at his price. Miami has allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs.

Smith is one of the main reasons Jets players are under-rostered in optimal lineups. The Jets fill 35 percent of optimal lineups against 22 percent of the field's projected roster spots, with their 22-point implied total 16 percent above league-average expectations against Miami's defense.

Wilson lands in 11.9 percent optimal against 6.4 percent rostered, making him one of the main reasons Jets players are under-rostered. The Jets fill 35 percent of optimal lineups against 22 percent of the field's projected roster spots, with their 22-point implied total 16 percent above league-average expectations against Miami's defense.

Likely has 24 targets with Theo Johnson doubtful, making him one of the Giants' two main pass catchers worth a look in a game they should be trailing. Houston has allowed the second-most fantasy points to receivers.

Nabers has drawn 35 targets over the last two games. Even with the Giants having the lowest implied total on the board, Nabers is worth a look in a game they should be trailing against Houston's defense, which has allowed the second-most fantasy points to receivers.

Collins is under-rostered and is Stroud's most common partner in optimal lineups at 32 percent. With Collins also under-rostered at 10.1 percent rostered, the Stroud-Collins stack is the preferred stack on the slate according to the source's simulation.

Stroud lands in 10.2 percent of optimal lineups against 4.6 percent rostered, the biggest gap at the quarterback position and second-most optimal lineups of any QB after Love. He has thrown for 1,714 yards, nine touchdowns, and one interception through six games, including 312 yards and three touchdowns against Jacksonville last week. He gets a Giants defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Houston has the second-highest implied total on the slate as a 10.5-point favorite, and the source projects him at about 34 pass attempts, 260 yards, and nearly two touchdowns.

Johnson is doubtful, which opens up additional targets for Isaiah Likely.

Likely has 24 targets over the last two games with Theo Johnson doubtful, and is worth a look in a game the Giants should be trailing. Houston has allowed the second-most fantasy points to receivers.

Nabers has drawn 35 targets over the last two games and is worth a look in a game the Giants should be trailing. Houston has allowed the second-most fantasy points to receivers.

Collins is under-rostered relative to optimal lineups as the field overlooks the Texans offense. Texans players fill 60 percent of optimal lineups against 46 percent of field's projected roster spots.

Stroud is under-rostered at 4.6 percent against 10.2 percent optimal, representing significant leverage. The Texans have the second-highest implied total on the slate as 10.5-point favorites against the Giants.

Penix is over-rostered at 8.1 percent against 4.0 percent optimal as the field goes too hard on the Falcons offense.

London is over-rostered at 18.9 percent against 11.8 percent optimal. He has drawn at least 10 targets in three of the last four games but has not scored a touchdown this season. The source identifies him as a post-hype candidate who disappointed as chalk last week, suggesting he could go overlooked this week despite elevated rostered percentage.

Coker lands in 20.2 percent of optimal lineups, the most of any receiver, and is identified as good chalk in a game where Panthers players fill more of the optimal lineups than any team except Detroit.

Mayfield returns from a dislocated thumb with an implied total of only 20.75 points, limiting offensive upside for Tampa Bay pass catchers.

Hurst is significantly over-rostered at 8.9 percent against 3.4 percent optimal as the field chases pass catchers in line to replace Egbuka's targets. Baker Mayfield returns from a dislocated thumb with an implied total of only 20.75 points.

Godwin is over-rostered at 12.7 percent against 8.2 percent optimal as the field chases pass catchers in line to replace Egbuka's targets. Baker Mayfield returns from a dislocated thumb with an implied total of only 20.75 points, limiting upside.

Watson is identified as good chalk in a game where Packers players fill 74 percent of field's roster spots against 66 percent of optimal lineups.

Love is identified as good chalk in a game where Packers players fill 74 percent of field's roster spots against 66 percent of optimal lineups.

Golden is the most popular receiver on the slate at 25.5 percent rostered against just 15.8 percent optimal, representing significant over-rostering relative to optimal lineups.

Goff is the most popular quarterback on the slate at 19.8 percent rostered against just 5.6 percent optimal, representing significant over-rostering. The source suggests getting Detroit exposure without going to Goff.

Gibbs is the most popular player on the slate at 34.2 percent rostered and also lands in the most optimal lineups at 29.4 percent, making him good chalk. He faces a Green Bay defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs and will be without linebacker Zaire Franklin.

Jacobs is on track to make his season debut but is not available on FanDuel this week. Projection still has him at about 13 carries, which leaves too little work for Pierre Strong Jr. or MarShawn Lloyd to be useful salary savers.

Ridley is questionable and projected to sit.