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Footballguys fantasy football takes on Matthew Stafford
Every source-backed article insight STACKED has extracted from Footballguys about Matthew Stafford.
71
Insights
50
Positive
17
Negative
Insight ledger
All Footballguys insights about Matthew Stafford
NegativeValueOct 24, 2026
Stafford is rostered at 8.4 percent against 6.7 percent optimal, making him one of the chalk quarterback options the source would be underweight on. Stafford also carries the Nacua risk.PositiveProjectionOct 24, 2026
Stafford stands just two touchdown passes from tying Roman Gabriel's Rams franchise record of 154 touchdown passes. He would become the only player to hold the franchise touchdown-pass record with two different franchises.NegativeMatchupOct 24, 2026
If Puka Nacua is out, it's tough to trust Matthew Stafford in the 4:25 PM game.PositiveProjectionOct 24, 2026
If Puka Nacua is unable to play, it becomes tough to trust Matthew Stafford in DFS, as Nacua is his primary target and has been highly productive since returning from injury.PositiveProjectionOct 22, 2026
Stafford leads the league with 1,794 passing yards through six games and has kept producing despite two losses in the last two weeks. He threw for 383 yards in Week 5's 37-34 overtime loss to Buffalo and 222 yards with two touchdowns in Week 6's 18-16 loss to Arizona. Against Las Vegas, which allows 1,424 passing yards through six games (237 per game, fifth-most in the league), Stafford has a good chance at his second 300-yard game in three weeks.PositiveProjectionOct 22, 2026
Stafford has four 300-yard passing games already in 2026, matching his entire 2025 total; this elevated passing volume supports strong fantasy production for his receiving corps.NegativeRoleOct 22, 2026
Stafford remains the Rams quarterback and is a key factor in Mumpfield's fantasy value as a boom-bust flex option. The Rams lead the league in passing attempts through six weeks, supporting elevated target volume for pass-catchers.PositiveValueOct 18, 2026
Selected as the primary cash game quarterback at $7,800 salary for Week 6 on FanDuel.NegativeProjectionOct 17, 2026
Expected to be the most popular quarterback play on the slate; the Rams have the highest implied total of the season at 32 points, making Stafford the natural stacking partner for Puka Nacua and other Rams pass-catchers. More of the field will look to Stafford ($6,400) over Josh Allen due to the Rams' elite scoring environment, though this creates ownership concentration risk.PositiveValueOct 17, 2026
Stafford is projected to be the most popular quarterback at 14.9 percent rostered, and the source calls him 'good chalk this week'; the source also notes Stafford may come in at 20 percent or more in many tournaments, indicating strong field consensus and potential for tournament leverage if he underperforms.PositiveValueOct 17, 2026
Under-rostered relative to optimal lineups at 16.2 percent optimal against 14.9 percent rostered; projection has him at about 35 pass attempts after throwing 51 or more in each of the last three games, as the Rams are a big favorite that may take their foot off the gas in the second half.NegativeProjectionOct 17, 2026
Stafford leads the NFL in completions, attempts, and passing yards, and has thrown at least 50 passes in three straight games. At $6,400, he is well below Josh Allen's price, which leaves room for two of the expensive running backs on the slate. Arizona has allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league (14), the highest yards per reception (14.3), and ranks 31st in opponent passer rating. Even at 30 attempts, the matchup against Arizona carries him, though the 12.5 point spread raises a fair concern about him sitting late in a blowout.PositiveMatchupOct 17, 2026
Stafford threw for 383 yards and three touchdowns without an interception in last week's overtime loss and faces Arizona, which ranks 30th against quarterbacks, allowing 23.2 FanDuel points per game and 32.4 points per game overall (most in the league). The Rams are 12.5 point favorites with the softest pass defense on the slate, though early game resolution could limit fourth-quarter volume.PositiveProjectionOct 15, 2026
Matthew Stafford is placed in the HIGH CEILING QB1 tier for Week 6 against Arizona, suggesting significant upside potential in his matchup.PositiveMatchupOct 15, 2026
Matthew Stafford excels at punishing weak secondaries; Arizona's secondary lacks proven talent and is widely attackable, with top cornerbacks Denzel Burke and Max Melton allowing a combined 107.0 passer rating. The Cardinals' pass rush ranks 25th in pressure rate and threatens no one, making secondary vulnerabilities worse. Arizona has already allowed 6 different pass catchers to record 80-plus yards, including a pair of tight ends, and safety Budda Baker has slipped badly in coverage, creating additional seam vulnerabilities.PositiveProjectionOct 15, 2026
Stafford and the Rams appear to be playing on easy mode. No one has thrown more times, completed more passes, or compiled more yards than Stafford, who's averaged 354 yards over the last 4 weeks. He excels at punishing weak secondaries, and the Cardinals' secondary is widely attackable.PositiveProjectionOct 14, 2026
Matthew Stafford threw for 383 yards and three touchdowns in the overtime loss to Buffalo and looks like the top option at his position; he faces Arizona, which has allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks (23.2 per game), and Dan Hindery's Matchup Rating has Stafford 9 percent better than usual.NegativeValueOct 14, 2026
Matthew Stafford was offered as a return in a Ken Walker III, Jordan Love, and 2027 1st trade, representing one example of sell-high marketplace activity for Walker.PositiveProjectionOct 13, 2026
Stafford rose two spots to QB12 in the rest-of-season rankings.PositiveMatchupOct 13, 2026
Matthew Stafford has significant ceiling potential for Los Angeles against Arizona in Week 6; the Rams are a concentrated group of fantasy stars primed to exploit Arizona's defense, which just surrendered 45 points to Detroit.PositiveProjectionOct 13, 2026
Listed as a Three Stars quarterback pick for Week 6 DFS, indicating strong game script appeal based on Vegas odds analysis for the Rams matchup.PositiveProjectionOct 11, 2026
Stafford won MVP last season, ranking second in passing yards per game (278) and first in passing touchdowns per game (2.6). This year, he ranks fourth in passing yards per game (297.3) but just 13th in total passing touchdowns (6). With Puka Nacua back in the lineup, his passing touchdowns could increase quickly. This is a favorable spot for Stafford at home against a Bills defense that ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 20th in Dropback EPA Allowed.PositiveProjectionOct 10, 2026
Stafford is 3 touchdown passes away from 150 with the Rams and could become the first player in NFL history to throw 150+ touchdown passes for two different franchises. He is also 7 touchdown passes away from becoming the Rams franchise leader in touchdown passes (Roman Gabriel, 154), which would make him the only player to lead two different franchises in touchdown passes. He needs 3,162 passing yards to reach Jim Everett on the Rams' career leaderboard.PositiveMatchupOct 9, 2026
Matthew Stafford is listed as a QB with potential for an explosive scoring week. The source categorizes him among players likely to exceed fantasy expectations and projections.PositiveMatchupOct 8, 2026
Stafford and the Rams have averaged 345 passing yards since Week 2 with 6 touchdowns. Against Buffalo, the Bills rush the passer effectively, but the secondary has holes to exploit throughout. With Puka Nacua back and Davante Adams as a strong secondary option, Stafford should find openings if he can step comfortably into the pocket; the Bills' tendency to coax shootouts from opponents works in his favor.PositiveProjectionOct 8, 2026
Matthew Stafford is placed in the HIGH FLOOR QB1 tier for Week 5 against Buffalo, indicating strong consistency and a reliable floor for starting lineup decisions.PositiveValueOct 8, 2026
Stafford's Week 4 fantasy dud was mostly due to a tough matchup and Kyren Williams scoring both offensive touchdowns on the ground, not poor performance. Stafford has previously faced tough defenses—throwing for 390 yards and two scores against the Broncos and 327 yards and four scores against the Giants (a game essentially decided by Jaxson Dart's first-half injury). With an easier schedule ahead against pass-friendly defenses, Stafford's ceiling is much higher than his current ranking indicates, making him a perfect target for win-now dynasty teams.PositiveMatchupOct 6, 2026
Listed as a Three Stars quarterback pick in the Vegas Value Chart for Week 5, indicating the Rams game is among the most appealing matchups for DFS based on Vegas odds and projected game script.NegativeProjectionOct 6, 2026
Matthew Stafford is ranked QB14 in rest-of-season fantasy football rankings, down 3 spots from the previous week's rankings.NegativeMatchupOct 6, 2026
Matthew Stafford playing on Monday night in Week 5 is not recommended as a streaming option, suggesting unfavorable conditions or matchup concerns for that game.PositiveValueOct 6, 2026
Matthew Stafford is a matchup leverage play in Week 5 against Buffalo with a QB5 Footballguys projection; the Rams carry an implied total approaching 29 in a 54.5-point game, making him a concentrated fantasy core play.PositiveProjectionOct 3, 2026
Stafford's QB12 projection of 17.8 points is conservative given his recent performance and matchup. Over the last two weeks, he scored 27 points against the Giants and 20.9 in Denver, combining for 717 passing yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions. The Eagles secondary has blown coverages and given too much cushion to opposing receivers, with a pass rush recording just three sacks in three games (tied for 29th in the NFL). With Puka Nacua on track to return, expecting Stafford to land multiple scoring strikes and finish inside the top 10 is reasonable.PositiveMatchupOct 1, 2026
Matthew Stafford is tiered as HIGH FLOOR QB1 for Week 4 at Philadelphia, indicating reliable floor with lower ceiling upside in this road matchup.PositiveProjectionSep 30, 2026
Matthew Stafford finished 2025 as QB2 with 356.4 fantasy points (21.0 FP/G) after throwing 4,707 passing yards and 46 TDs across 17 games. His 46 passing touchdowns represent the elite passing volume threshold that can substitute for rushing production; unless a quarterback throws 45+ touchdowns, 350–500 rushing yards is nearly mandatory to contend for an elite QB1 spot.PositiveProjectionSep 29, 2026
Stafford is ranked QB11 in rest-of-season rankings and has moved up three spots from last week.NegativeProjectionSep 27, 2026
Stafford's production dips noticeably without Puka Nacua; over 7 games without Nacua, he averaged 226.3 yards and 15.2 DKPt/Gm compared to his overall 248.4 yards and 17.2 DKPt/Gm across 52 games (2023-26). The source notes he rarely reaches upper-end outcomes without his No. 1 receiver, and with Nacua doubtful, Stafford may spend most of his time handing off against Denver's defense. The source explicitly states Stafford 'doesn't carry much upside at all without a huge line from Adams.'PositiveMatchupSep 24, 2026
Matthew Stafford posted a near-perfect game with 327 yards and four touchdowns in a blowout Rams win against the Giants, doing so without the services of Puka Nacua. The Giants secondary had no answers for Davante Adams, who won on every level of the field at age 33, finishing with eight catches for 195 yards and two touchdowns.PositiveProjectionSep 17, 2026
With the Rams' defense losing Myles Garrett for a month, the offense will lean on Stafford's arm to win games, suggesting increased offensive responsibility and volume opportunity in the coming weeks.PositiveProjectionSep 17, 2026
Stafford's dreadful Week 1 game against the 49ers in Melbourne should be safely discarded; he won't play another game in the Southern Hemisphere, after a 15-hour flight, or on a cricket ground again. The reigning MVP had some duds as a Ram in 2024, but most games will be much better starting with Monday night's home game against the Giants. A perfect storm of weird game time, intercontinental travel, and bad coaching decisions led to the Rams falling flat in Week 1. Stafford was a top-5 fantasy quarterback last year, and while regression is expected, it will not be as bad as Week 1. With his weapons, he will be back in the top-15 discussion after Week 2.PositiveMatchupSep 17, 2026
Matthew Stafford is placed in the HIGH FLOOR QB2/SUPERFLEX/STREAMER tier for Week 2 against New York Giants, indicating reliable floor as a streamer option.NegativeProjectionSep 16, 2026
Matthew Stafford appeared fatigued and underperformed in Week 1, looking like a 38-year-old quarterback after a 17-hour flight, suggesting potential jet lag or travel-related performance decline that may impact early-season projections.NegativeProjectionSep 15, 2026
The source recommends benching Stafford if you have good options, treating Week 1 as a meaningless aberration and suggesting caution until the Lions prove they can move the ball consistently.NegativeMatchupSep 15, 2026
The source recommends benching Stafford if you have good options, as the Giants defense had a good debut against Dallas in Week 1, and it's reasonable to see if this result was a meaningless Week 1 aberration before trusting Stafford against them.PositiveProjectionSep 10, 2026
Matthew Stafford is placed in the HIGH FLOOR QB1 tier for Week 1 against San Francisco (Thursday game in Australia), indicating strong floor with lower ceiling variance.NegativeBustSep 6, 2026
Matthew Stafford received 2 votes from industry experts as the most overrated quarterback in drafts. Voters included Jacob Gibbs and Justin Boone.NegativeValueSep 5, 2026
Matthew Stafford is a premium starter with a Week 11 bye; his backup T. Simpson costs $5 to roster as injury insurance in contest play.PositiveValueSep 5, 2026
Stafford has the 6th-highest projection among quarterbacks at the 12th-highest contest price, indicating strong value relative to his projected fantasy points.PositiveValueSep 5, 2026
Matthew Stafford has the 6th-highest projection among quarterbacks at the 12th-highest contest price, suggesting favorable ROI value; he projects 376.7 fantasy points at $17 contest cap with 22.2 FPs/$ ROI ranking 12th.PositiveProjectionSep 3, 2026
Stafford still has a top-five arm despite age concerns, and his inconsistency throughout his career has been tied to injuries to key talent or lack of key talent rather than declining ability. With elite route runners and a strong offense, Waldman projects Stafford should rank in the top five at his position.PositiveValueSep 3, 2026
Waldman argues that projecting or ranking Stafford outside the top five at his position is ludicrous, and valuing him outside the top-12 is inexplicable. Despite age concerns, Stafford retains a top-five arm and benefits from top route runners and a strong offense in a tough division that will require passing volume. Waldman would take Stafford as early as the seventh round if other targets are available in rounds 8-10, noting that older passers in good shape can play into their early 40s.NegativeValueAug 28, 2026
Bloom won't talk drafters out of taking Matthew Stafford and also lists him as a value add in 6-point pass TD leagues, indicating he's an acceptable QB pick without being a standout value or concern.PositiveValueAug 25, 2026
Multiple analysts (Bob Harris, Jeff Tefertiller) note that Matthew Stafford is available after overrated quarterbacks like Jaxson Dart and Caleb Williams come off the board, making him a better value pick.NegativeValueAug 25, 2026
Chad Parsons includes Matthew Stafford in a list of QBs likely available late in drafts for those who wait at the position, describing the situation as a fish-in-the-barrel opportunity; Stafford is positioned as a viable late-round target alongside other options.PositiveValueAug 18, 2026
The Los Angeles Rams quarterback had an ADP in Round 13 a year ago, yet outscored Josh Allen by about a fantasy point per game, demonstrating the value advantage of waiting on quarterback and targeting mid-round options.PositiveValueAug 12, 2026
Matthew Stafford is ranked QB12 in ADP, just after Jaxson Dart (QB11). The source argues that Stafford offers comparable production to Dart at a better or similar price point, making him a preferable target in drafts.NegativeProjectionAug 9, 2026
The source characterizes Stafford's 2025 MVP season as an outlier even by his lofty standards. At age 38, Stafford started all 17 games, led the league in passing yards (4,707), and set career highs in passing touchdowns (46) and TD% (7.7). The source states it is extraordinarily likely that most, if not all, of those numbers will decline in 2026, and that even if he plays all 17 games again—which at his age is also hard to do—it will be tough to match 2025 production. Stafford adds next to nothing with his legs. His ADP is QB13 this season, but in both 2023 and 2024 he came up short of even that mark, finishing QB15 two years ago and QB19 in 2023.PositiveValueAug 6, 2026
Matthew Stafford could have been drafted as QB1 instead of Jordan Addison, allowing Jared Goff to be drafted as QB2 later. A Stafford-Goff-Khalil Shakir trio would feel more confident than an Addison-Goff-Tyler Shough combo.PositiveProjectionAug 6, 2026
Got advice from Tom Brady when it came to training; Stafford is four years younger than Aaron Rodgers; Brady retired at 46 and was never the athlete Stafford was, and never had Stafford's arm talent; Stafford has two of the best receivers in the league, a strong ground game, and a skilled offensive mind for a head coach; Zachariason would take him where he took Caleb Williams in other drafts if he had to.NegativeValueAug 6, 2026
Matthew Stafford has fallen 7 spots in FBG OC ADP, dropping from rank 96 to rank 103 (QB13), indicating declining draft interest in the Los Angeles Rams quarterback.NegativeRoleAug 5, 2026
The one real limiter for Stafford is rushing equity: he has posted 65 or fewer rushing yards for five straight seasons and just one rushing score since 2017, providing minimal upside from the ground game.PositiveValueAug 5, 2026
Stafford lost 42.15 expected points to drops last season, fifth-most in the NFL behind only Dak Prescott, Lawrence, Jared Goff, and Cam Ward. Eliminating even half those drops would make his numbers look even more dominant. His ADP at QB13 (eighth-round price) hasn't caught up to his QB2 finish. Harris advises: if waiting at quarterback, don't chase unproven upside -- chase discounted elite production, and Stafford is exactly that.PositiveProjectionAug 5, 2026
Stafford won his first MVP last season, leading the NFL with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns while completing 65% of passes. He delivered nine top-10 fantasy weeks (tied for third-most at position) and finished QB2 overall, his first top-10 finish since 2019. Bob Harris ranks him QB10 despite QB13 ADP at an eighth-round price, noting that with Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, a strong line, and Sean McVay calling plays, everything is in place for another high-end season.NegativeValueAug 5, 2026
Stafford is a preferred QBBC target ranked QB13; he is part of the source's QB Plan B strategy to take two or more quarterbacks after the top 10 are drafted and bank advantages at RB, WR, and TE.PositiveValueJul 30, 2026
After last year, it's surprising Stafford is available this late; age is a big factor, but Stafford has always been a hard worker in the gym and has consulted Tom Brady to generate a quality training regimen; the Rams are an elite, balanced offense on the cutting edge of testing defenses, and Stafford has lost little as a thrower, meaning his arm is still better than most.PositiveValueJul 30, 2026
Waldman selects Stafford as his QB in Draft No. 2, indicating he values Stafford as a middle-round QB option with upside comparable to his selections of Brock Purdy and Baker Mayfield in Draft No. 1.PositiveValueJul 30, 2026
After last year, it's surprising Stafford is available this late in drafts. While age is a factor, Stafford has always been a hard worker in the gym and has consulted Tom Brady to generate a quality training regimen. The Rams are an elite, balanced offense on the cutting edge of testing defenses, and Stafford has lost little as a thrower—his arm is still better than most. Few trap doors with his game this year.PositiveValueJul 30, 2026
Waldman selects Stafford at pick 97 in Draft No. 2, indicating he values Stafford as a QB option with top-five ceiling potential in the middle rounds.NegativeProjectionJul 23, 2026
Stafford's 2025 season was an outlier—he paced the NFL in passing yards and touchdown passes, finished second in fantasy points, and won MVP, but the source calls him a 'Mirage' verdict; his 7.7% touchdown percentage was the highest of his 17-year career, he had just 44 combined touchdown passes in 2023-2024, and 2025 was his first 4,000-yard season since the Rams' 2021 Super Bowl win; while his QB12 ADP isn't unreasonable, Stafford is almost certainly going to regress in 2026.PositiveValueJul 19, 2026
Despite finishing QB2 in 2025, Stafford is priced as QB12 ADP in the seventh round and ranked QB14 on Footballguys projections, well below his finish. Underrated Quarterbacks ranks him QB10. He has limited rushing equity (65 or fewer rushing yards in five straight seasons, one rushing TD since 2017), but elite outcomes remain possible. With Puka Nacua and Davante Adams as dominant receivers, a strong offensive line, an effective rushing attack, and Sean McVay as one of the league's most innovative and aggressive playcallers, Stafford has everything needed for another high-end season. Even a step back from QB2 would make him a bargain at current cost.PositiveProjectionJul 19, 2026
Stafford lost 42.15 expected points added to drops in 2025, the fifth-highest total in the league per FTN Charting data. He ranked behind only Dak Prescott (70.15), Trevor Lawrence (67.58), Jared Goff (66.7), and Cam Ward (56.8). Had even half of those drops been secured, his already top-five efficiency numbers would have been even more dominant, suggesting his 2025 production was constrained by receiver execution rather than his own performance.PositiveProjectionJul 19, 2026
Stafford had arguably the best season of his career in 2025, winning his first MVP award and leading the Rams to the NFC Championship Game. He completed 65% for 4,707 yards (league-leading) and 46 TDs with 8 INTs, delivering nine top-10 fantasy weeks (tied for third-most at position) despite being drafted as QB25. He finished as QB2 overall, his first top-10 finish since 2019.