Footballguys on Matthew Stafford

ArticleBuyer Beware: 8 Fantasy Stars Set to Backslide in 2026
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Stafford is screaming regression for 2026. His 2025 MVP campaign was magical. At age 38, Stafford started all 17 games, led the league in passing yards (4,707) and set career highs in passing TDs (46) and TD% (7.7). It is extraordinarily likely that most, if not all, of those numbers take a dip in 2026.

STACKED’s take

Negative signalProjection

Stafford's 38-year-old MVP season (4,707 yards, 46 TDs) is an outlier; regression likely.

The source characterizes Stafford's 2025 MVP season as an outlier even by his lofty standards. At age 38, Stafford started all 17 games, led the league in passing yards (4,707), and set career highs in passing touchdowns (46) and TD% (7.7). The source states it is extraordinarily likely that most, if not all, of those numbers will decline in 2026, and that even if he plays all 17 games again—which at his age is also hard to do—it will be tough to match 2025 production. Stafford adds next to nothing with his legs. His ADP is QB13 this season, but in both 2023 and 2024 he came up short of even that mark, finishing QB15 two years ago and QB19 in 2023.

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