Footballguys on Matthew Stafford

ArticleMonster or Mirage: Can Last Year's Surprise Stars Back It Up in 2026?
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Stafford is almost certainly going to regress this season. His touchdown percentage of 7.7 last season was the highest of his 17-year career.

STACKED’s take

Negative signalProjection

Stafford's 7.7% TD rate was career-high; mirage verdict signals regression despite QB12 ADP.

Stafford's 2025 season was an outlier—he paced the NFL in passing yards and touchdown passes, finished second in fantasy points, and won MVP, but the source calls him a 'Mirage' verdict; his 7.7% touchdown percentage was the highest of his 17-year career, he had just 44 combined touchdown passes in 2023-2024, and 2025 was his first 4,000-yard season since the Rams' 2021 Super Bowl win; while his QB12 ADP isn't unreasonable, Stafford is almost certainly going to regress in 2026.

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