From the video
if I had to pick a single player in the first round to fully fade this season, it would be Justin Jefferson... only averaged about eight fantasy points per game over the last seven weeks last season... Kyler has some of the worst accuracy down the field on throws over 10 yards over the last couple years... he's just not really targeted his outside wide receivers as near as much as maybe he should have.
STACKED’s take
Fade Jefferson in first round; scheme fit concerns with Murray.
Miami Should recommends fading Justin Jefferson as a first-round pick despite his ADP of 8-10. Jefferson faces significant downside due to Kyler Murray's arrival and poor outside-receiver accuracy; Murray ranks 49th of 55 quarterbacks in catchable target rate to outside receivers and has some of the worst accuracy on throws over 10 yards. The 12.5-percentage-point gap between Murray's 31% outside target rate and Kevin O'Connell's 43.5% scheme preference creates a structural headwind for Jefferson's target volume and efficiency. Jefferson's concerning floor (8 PPG over last 7 weeks of 2024) combined with expensive draft capital makes him a candidate for mid-second round value instead of late first round.
Justin JeffersonWR · MINPlayer page — value, ADP, projections, and every insight