Fantasy Points

AJ Brown is projected as WR12 despite volume concerns and recent poor performance. While he had a 53% first read target share in his first game back and 35% last week (top-10 in XFP per game extrapolated), he's only averaging 6.8 fantasy points (WR73 pace). The source's projection argument is that this regresses to the mean, but counters include: Miami is top-5 in fantasy points per game allowed to outside wide receivers, and film analysis suggests he 'looked awful these last two weeks' coming back from injury. The source notes the best film the source said AJ Brown looked washed a year and a half ago, and he's now returning from injury with poor recent tape.

Drake May has finished QB1, QB1, QB5, QB2 over his last four games and is projected as a top-three option for Week 8 against Miami. The source notes he's been 'white hot, on fire' with only 29 fewer rushing yards than Josh Allen on the full season. With the Patriots favored by 7 on the road and an implied point total of 26 points (fifth highest of the week), Vegas and projections still like Drake May enough to get there in the first half. Miami's defense gives up the second most fantasy points per drop back, and the Patriots should have great starting field position and frequent red zone opportunities.

Dobbin's health status is a key variable affecting Jonah Coleman's fantasy value and start/sit decision for Week 8; his availability will determine Coleman's role and upside.

The source expresses low confidence in starting Jonah Coleman in Week 8 given the Broncos' offensive dysfunction. Start/sit decision hinges on JK Dobbin's health status; his availability will determine Coleman's role and upside. The source is bullish on Coleman's league-winning potential in the second half after the bye week but characterizes him as an on-the-fence play for fantasy purposes, possibly a flex option. However, the source likes his prop bet of 50.5 rushing plus receiving yards combined at DraftKings or BetMGM.

Jaylen Waddle is out for Week 8. The source previously stated love for Waddle at ADP but also noted his absence is 'not prohibitive to Courtland Sutton having a great season.' However, the Broncos offense has underperformed dramatically, with no receivers getting off; Waddle's injury status is moot given the offense's overall dysfunction. The broader Broncos offensive collapse makes his absence less impactful than it would be in a functional system.

Despite being 'widely considered a draft bust,' Keon Coleman has three 100-yard games and reaches six-plus targets in roughly one-third of his games. Comparison to Xavier Worthy reveals Coleman's production efficiency is actually superior to Worthy's despite far less opportunity; Worthy 'has been worse and has had way more opportunity,' making Coleman's bust label relatively unfair by comparison. The source's analysis suggests Coleman's underlying production metrics are better than consensus perception.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes' accuracy metrics over the last two to three years, especially on intermediate and deep throws, rank him among the worst in the NFL. Orders of magnitude higher production comes from throws behind the line of scrimmage; on 10+ yard throws, he ranks 'really down all the way down the list.' This decline from his elite Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce era explains Xavier Worthy's underperformance despite high target volume.

Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy has significantly underperformed relative to his target volume; in 37 career games, he has received at least six targets in over half of those games yet has never reached 85 receiving yards in a single game. The source identifies Worthy as 'the worst deep ball tracker' they've ever seen, noting that while he is 'really fast, the NFL conflates speed with being a good deep threat, which is not true.' Worthy has been worse than widely-panned Keon Coleman despite far more opportunity, indicating a fundamental efficiency and production problem.

Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker exploited the Broncos' vulnerable run defense in their first meeting, scoring 34 fantasy points; the Broncos missed 16 tackles in that game, establishing them as an extremely vulnerable matchup for opposing running backs despite their improved run defense metrics since Week 1.

Chargers tight end Tyler Higbee was on a hot streak in recent weeks but faces significant competition in a tight end committee; Kobe Parkinson has received five more targets than Higbee over the same period, indicating a shift in target distribution and reduced role clarity for Higbee.

Chargers wide receiver Puka Nacua is a clear start in Week 8; the source explicitly states there is no need to recommend starting him, indicating his role and matchup are favorable enough to warrant automatic inclusion in lineups.

Chargers running back Kamani Vidal is projected to receive heavy volume in a run-heavy game plan under Mike McDaniel's offensive scheme; the source projects 12 carries for Vidal in the upcoming game, reflecting the emphasis on the ground game.

Justin Herbert is ranked 12th or 13th among NFL quarterbacks in talent when all contextual factors (offensive line, pass catchers) are held equal, yet he is currently playing significantly below that level. The source notes that while Herbert has been hampered by poor circumstances, his on-field performance has been notably poor relative to his underlying skill, making him a concerning fantasy option despite his talent ceiling. In a franchise quarterback selection exercise, the source chose Herbert over Sam Darnold, Jaylen Hertz, Tyler Shuck, and Bryce Young, though with hesitation after Young's recent performance shift.

Chris Godwin is viewed as a constraint on the Buccaneers offense; the source suggests removing Godwin to create slot opportunities for Mecole Hardman, implying Godwin's current role is not optimizing team fantasy upside.

Mecole Hardman's fantasy production has stalled despite a respectable 10th-place target share ranking; he ranks 31st in fantasy points per game and 73rd in yards per route run, suggesting inefficiency in his current role. The source proposes moving Hardman to the slot full-time as a pathway to improved production, implying his current outside receiver role is not optimizing his fantasy value.

Jaylen Smith (JSN) ranked among the top 15 dynasty wire wide receivers by consistency; he has hit 65+ receiving yards in 17 of his last 18 games and accumulated approximately 14 double-digit target games over that span, demonstrating elite reliability compared to other top-tier dynasty receivers.

Elite WR1 with Michael Pennix since his return, ranking behind only JSN in yards per game at 107.2; 40% first-read target share. Buccaneers play single-high coverage at fourth-highest rate in league; London averages 4+ yards per route run against single-high (second-best in league) but only about half that against two-high. Favorable schematic spot despite pass-funnel defense potentially hurting other Falcons receivers.

Excellent schematic matchup vs Buccaneers, one of the worst defenses in the league against 12/13 personnel (allowing 9 yards per attempt, 74% completion rate). Pennix seeing 33% of dropbacks in 12/13 personnel, averaging 8.5 yards per attempt with positive completion percentage over expectation. Buccaneers also run cover-three frequently, which Pennix has shredded this year (9.3 yards per attempt, 57% success rate). DFS consideration; has scored over 20 fantasy points in his last two games with three touchdowns.

Only 11 pass attempts in Week 7 against the Saints; injury concern affecting game script and volume. The source notes that Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers medical staff have a pattern of returning players sooner than ideal, creating uncertainty around Mayfield's workload and health status heading into Week 8 despite the blowout game script justifying the low attempt volume.

Significant efficiency disconnect in projections: ranked WR19 in fantasy projections and WR10 by first-read targets per game, but WR36 in fantasy points per game. The source characterizes this as "extremely inefficient" production despite strong volume. However, Metcalf does face the most man-heavy defense in the league and is nearly twice as efficient against man coverage this year, providing some schematic upside against Cleveland.

Strong start recommendation against Cleveland Browns run defense; the source likes Warren "quite a bit" in this matchup. Browns have allowed 129 yards to Tony Pollard, 116 to Braelon Allen, and 93 to Warren in their first meeting this season. Run defense has cracked due to Mason Graham being banged up and Malik Collins out of the lineup. Steelers expected to want to run the ball here.

Despite holding an RB1 role with explosive playmaking ability, Jahmyr Gibbs has zero targets against the blitz this season. With Minnesota blitzing at 73-74% of dropbacks, the source expects Gibbs to be heavily utilized in pass protection rather than receiving opportunities, which will significantly limit his fantasy ceiling this week despite his elite rushing role.

Amon-Ra St. Brown carries a 36% target share against the blitz and is ranked as a WR4 this week, which the source feels is appropriate for the matchup. Against Brian Flores' Vikings defense, St. Brown has averaged 21.4 fantasy points per game historically and had 12 targets in both games last year against Flores. He shows the highest targets per route run and yards per route run against the blitz, making him a high-confidence start.

Aaron Jones is receiving rest and workload management this week; the team wanted to give him a week to catch his breath. With limited expected usage, the source projects his fantasy value at 60-40 at max, which translates to minimal fantasy production in this spot.

Jordan Mason feels overrated in the Vikings-Lions matchup despite the favorable defensive setup. San Francisco gave Aaron Jones a week to catch his breath, suggesting Mason's elevated usage is temporary. At best, Mason is projected for a 60/40 workload split, which does not provide sufficient fantasy value in this spot.

Kyler Murray looks awful across nearly every measure and ranks 28th of 34 quarterbacks in fantasy points per drop back. Despite facing a favorable matchup against Detroit's defense (which gives up the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks), the source expresses extreme skepticism about starting Murray due to his overall poor performance this season.

George Pickens is a start option for Week 8 against Arizona, though with secondary appeal. Pickens is more of a single-high beater, which is less favorable against Arizona's too-high coverage scheme (the league's most frequent). He ranks 26th in fantasy points per game and is high-end WR3/fringe WR2 in XFP per game, making him the secondary option in this matchup despite trending up. The source expresses consistent confidence in Pickens as a start ('I like them both. I always do'), but the coverage scheme and volume discrepancy versus CeeDee Lamb limit his ceiling.

CeeDee Lamb is a strong start for Week 8 against Arizona. Arizona plays too-high coverage at the highest rate in the league and gives up the most fantasy points per drop back in too-high coverage. Lamb ranks top three in both fantasy points per game and XFP per game, with a massive volume advantage over George Pickens (26th in fantasy points per game). The source prefers Lamb over Pickens in this matchup due to coverage scheme alignment and production differential, positioning him as a core receiving option in the Cowboys' passing game hierarchy.

Javante Williams is a top-five start for Week 8 against Arizona. Arizona's run defense ranks as 'complete garbage' and gives up 6 yards per carry more against zone concepts; Williams is a zone-heavy runner creating a sticky matchup advantage. The source notes Williams has regained his explosiveness from pre-injury (three years ago) and looks 'fantastic' on tape. With Dallas holding a 30.75-point implied total (highest on the week), Williams carries massive touchdown upside. His consensus prop line is 79.5 yards. The source also previously touted him on another show and calls it a great spot.

McBride is a short-area-of-the-field demon who wins from zero to nine yards, with a huge swath of his production coming from that zone. In 12 games over the last two years where Brissett dropped back 40+ times, McBride averages an insane 11 targets per game and 24 fantasy points per game. He hits no matter what happens, even when defenses contract and congest around him and Wilson.

Despite panic about Michael Wilson following the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade, the source trusts his volume, which remains excellent. The source attributes recent underperformance to bad luck and Jacoby Brissett playing poorly rather than a fundamental role decline. Even if Wilson finishes below average in efficiency, his volume should support a ranking around low-end WR2 at worst. Wilson is WR16 in XFP per game and faces a favorable matchup against Dallas, which plays single high at the third highest rate in the league. He's nearly three times as efficient against single high this year and ranks top 12 in targets per route run against single high over the last two years, well above Trey McBride, making this a better spot for Wilson than McBride on paper.

Tee Higgins had 90+ yards in four straight games before the bye week, when he was used as a decoy. He faces a top-10 matchup against Tennessee alongside Ja'Marr Chase, positioning him as a strong play in this elite defensive matchup.

Despite ranking as WR10 in fantasy with zero games over 95 yards all year, Ja'Marr Chase faces a top-10 matchup against Tennessee, which is dreadful against the slot. Chase will be deployed in the slot on at least 30% of routes, possibly more, and even when not in slot is condensed to a slot route tree. Chase is off the injury report. The source states 'I think Chase is back, though. I think this is a good week for him,' indicating confidence in a bounce-back performance.

Joe Burrow has been on fire, averaging 25.7 fantasy points per game over his last three games and is now the QB2 in fantasy football. The Bengals are 10.5-point favorites with the second-highest implied point total on the slate, positioning Burrow for great starting field position and numerous red zone drives. The source recommends starting him 'with confidence.'

Against the Bengals defense last week, Zay Jones recorded 10 catches for 137 yards, but the source notes that production was 'all after the catch basically' and 'weren't like getting beaten routes.' The Bengals are elite at stopping the deep ball and funnel shorter/underneath routes, suggesting Jones's intermediate route tree is his calling card.

Cam Ward has thrown for over 185 passing yards in only one game all year, averaging just 145 yards per game and largely sucking outside that single outlier. While he ranks top 10 in first read target share, the source characterizes his offense as 'the grossest deadest offense with the worst quarterback in football,' severely limiting upside despite the target share ranking.

Likes Tony Pollard in this matchup against Cincinnati because the Bengals have been so bad against the run; Cincinnati ranks fourth-best in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. Over the last five weeks, Cincinnati has given up 5 yards per carry and 549 yards on the ground over four games with a super high explosive run rate. However, this is conditional on depth chart status: if Taj Spears is out, start Pollard; if Taj Spears is back, don't start him. The source notes Pollard's bullcase argument—he averages 36.5 fantasy points in games the Titans have led at least 7% of the time, though that was a one-game sample size and the source doubts Tennessee will lead in this forecasted blowout.

Ranks 1st in yards per route run among tight ends, but role share has declined post-DJ Moore injury, which is unusual. Kincaid struggles against two-high coverage, and Baltimore plays two-high at a top-five rate. Buffalo's pass game appears broken, raising questions about whether the offense is dysfunctional or whether Kincaid was removed from the field because the pass game deteriorated.

Projected to go nuclear in Ravens-Bills matchup; Buffalo is giving up the most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers. Flowers moves all over the formation and will face mismatch opportunities against a defense terrible against both slot and outside receivers. This is Flowers' first full game with Lamar Jackson for the entirety of the game after playing only two full quarters in each of his first three games. With Lamar on field, Flowers averages 8 yards per route run. Great matchup on paper in this high-scoring game (54 over/under, second-highest on the slate).

Start recommendation vs. Baltimore; Moore will draw Marlon Humphrey in coverage most of the time, which is a win given Humphrey's poor 2024 season. Moore has recorded 5+ catches and 67+ yards in both of his full games. Elite utilization metrics: WR2 in air yards per route run and WR11 in targets per route run—top-12 in both stats while catching passes from the best quarterback in football. Part of the source's fantasy bonanza outlook for this high-scoring Ravens-Bills matchup.