Week 8 Fantasy Football: Start/Sit Decisions to Win Your League!
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 9 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 29, 2026
Published
Thu, October 29, 2026
28
Player insights
28
Players mentioned
Topics
Aaron JonesAmon-Ra St. BrownCam WardCeeDee LambChristian WatsonChuba HubbardD.J. MooreDalton KincaidDerrick HenryGeorge PickensJa'Marr ChaseJahmyr GibbsJalen CokerJavonte Williams
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Jones
NegativeUsage42:08
Aaron Jones is receiving rest and workload management this week; the team wanted to give him a week to catch his breath. With limited expected usage, the source projects his fantasy value at 60-40 at max, which translates to minimal fantasy production in this spot.
Insight pageAmon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveMatchup45:05
Amon-Ra St. Brown carries a 36% target share against the blitz and is ranked as a WR4 this week, which the source feels is appropriate for the matchup. Against Brian Flores' Vikings defense, St. Brown has averaged 21.4 fantasy points per game historically and had 12 targets in both games last year against Flores. He shows the highest targets per route run and yards per route run against the blitz, making him a high-confidence start.
Insight pageCam Ward
PositiveProjection24:00
Cam Ward has thrown for over 185 passing yards in only one game all year, averaging just 145 yards per game and largely sucking outside that single outlier. While he ranks top 10 in first read target share, the source characterizes his offense as 'the grossest deadest offense with the worst quarterback in football,' severely limiting upside despite the target share ranking.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
PositiveMatchup33:33
CeeDee Lamb is a strong start for Week 8 against Arizona. Arizona plays too-high coverage at the highest rate in the league and gives up the most fantasy points per drop back in too-high coverage. Lamb ranks top three in both fantasy points per game and XFP per game, with a massive volume advantage over George Pickens (26th in fantasy points per game). The source prefers Lamb over Pickens in this matchup due to coverage scheme alignment and production differential, positioning him as a core receiving option in the Cowboys' passing game hierarchy.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveMatchup10:00
Christian Watson is WR6 in fantasy points per game and already a WR1 on fringe WR1 volume (WR11 in XFP per game). He is seven times as efficient against zone coverage (3.45 yards per route run vs. man coverage). Carolina plays zone at the fourth highest rate in the league, making Watson the preferred start over Matthew Golden this week. The source favors Watson overs in betting.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
PositiveMatchup5:47
Chuba Hubbard faces Green Bay, which allows the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Hubbard finished as a fantasy RB1 every single week until last week, making this a favorable matchup despite Bryce Young's struggles with coverage disguises.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
PositiveMatchup13:40
Start recommendation vs. Baltimore; Moore will draw Marlon Humphrey in coverage most of the time, which is a win given Humphrey's poor 2024 season. Moore has recorded 5+ catches and 67+ yards in both of his full games. Elite utilization metrics: WR2 in air yards per route run and WR11 in targets per route run—top-12 in both stats while catching passes from the best quarterback in football. Part of the source's fantasy bonanza outlook for this high-scoring Ravens-Bills matchup.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
NegativeRole18:58
Ranks 1st in yards per route run among tight ends, but role share has declined post-DJ Moore injury, which is unusual. Kincaid struggles against two-high coverage, and Baltimore plays two-high at a top-five rate. Buffalo's pass game appears broken, raising questions about whether the offense is dysfunctional or whether Kincaid was removed from the field because the pass game deteriorated.
Insight pageDerrick Henry
PositiveMatchup13:40
Projected for a major bounceback in Ravens-Bills matchup; Buffalo is giving up the third most fantasy points per game to running backs, creating a favorable environment for Henry's production in this high-scoring game (54 over/under, second-highest on the slate).
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
NegativeMatchup37:38
George Pickens is a start option for Week 8 against Arizona, though with secondary appeal. Pickens is more of a single-high beater, which is less favorable against Arizona's too-high coverage scheme (the league's most frequent). He ranks 26th in fantasy points per game and is high-end WR3/fringe WR2 in XFP per game, making him the secondary option in this matchup despite trending up. The source expresses consistent confidence in Pickens as a start ('I like them both. I always do'), but the coverage scheme and volume discrepancy versus CeeDee Lamb limit his ceiling.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
PositiveMatchup26:04
Despite ranking as WR10 in fantasy with zero games over 95 yards all year, Ja'Marr Chase faces a top-10 matchup against Tennessee, which is dreadful against the slot. Chase will be deployed in the slot on at least 30% of routes, possibly more, and even when not in slot is condensed to a slot route tree. Chase is off the injury report. The source states 'I think Chase is back, though. I think this is a good week for him,' indicating confidence in a bounce-back performance.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
NegativeUsage45:12
Despite holding an RB1 role with explosive playmaking ability, Jahmyr Gibbs has zero targets against the blitz this season. With Minnesota blitzing at 73-74% of dropbacks, the source expects Gibbs to be heavily utilized in pass protection rather than receiving opportunities, which will significantly limit his fantasy ceiling this week despite his elite rushing role.
Insight pageJalen Coker
NegativeMatchup6:45
Jaylen Coker faces a poor schematic matchup against Green Bay, which plays two-high coverage at the third-highest rate in the league (two-thirds of the time). Coker is 36% less efficient against two-high coverage over the last two years, and had pristine schematic matchups earlier in the season but this is a bad one. He is ranked a step below T McMillan in this matchup.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
PositiveMatchup33:00
Javante Williams is a top-five start for Week 8 against Arizona. Arizona's run defense ranks as 'complete garbage' and gives up 6 yards per carry more against zone concepts; Williams is a zone-heavy runner creating a sticky matchup advantage. The source notes Williams has regained his explosiveness from pre-injury (three years ago) and looks 'fantastic' on tape. With Dallas holding a 30.75-point implied total (highest on the week), Williams carries massive touchdown upside. His consensus prop line is 79.5 yards. The source also previously touted him on another show and calls it a great spot.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
PositiveProjection24:57
Joe Burrow has been on fire, averaging 25.7 fantasy points per game over his last three games and is now the QB2 in fantasy football. The Bengals are 10.5-point favorites with the second-highest implied point total on the slate, positioning Burrow for great starting field position and numerous red zone drives. The source recommends starting him 'with confidence.'
Insight pageJordan Mason
NegativeUsage41:41
Jordan Mason feels overrated in the Vikings-Lions matchup despite the favorable defensive setup. San Francisco gave Aaron Jones a week to catch his breath, suggesting Mason's elevated usage is temporary. At best, Mason is projected for a 60/40 workload split, which does not provide sufficient fantasy value in this spot.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveMatchup12:57
Matchup-proof QB who performs at Superman level 95% of the time regardless of opponent. Buffalo's defense has massively regressed, giving up more than a touchdown per game compared to last year, creating a fantasy bonanza scenario where Allen will need to be aggressive on offense. The Ravens defense ranks bottom five in fantasy points per game to wide receivers, amplifying Allen's upside in this high-scoring game (54 over/under, second-highest on the slate).
Insight pageJosh Jacobs
NegativeMatchup3:00
The source identifies Josh Jacobs as having one of the best matchups available against the Carolina Panthers, who have the worst run defense in football, giving up the most rushing fantasy points per game, highest yards per carry at 5.21, and highest rushing yards over expectation per carry. The Packers are favored at home and expected to lean heavily into the run game, particularly given the Panthers' vulnerability when trailing in games like Chicago and Tampa Bay, where they gave up over 200 yards to running backs. Jacobs is RB14 after his first game back from injury, receiving a top-five workload at the position. The source recommends starting him with confidence as a low-end RB1 at worst and suggests playing props on him for added value. However, in his first game back, all production came through the air (five catches, 55 yards and a touchdown) with only 3.3 yards per carry on the ground, highlighting a concern about the Packers' struggling running game and offensive line—but the Panthers' historically poor run defense presents an opportunity for Jacobs to establish ground game production he hasn't yet demonstrated in his return.
Insight pageKyler Murray
NegativeProjection41:16
Kyler Murray looks awful across nearly every measure and ranks 28th of 34 quarterbacks in fantasy points per drop back. Despite facing a favorable matchup against Detroit's defense (which gives up the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks), the source expresses extreme skepticism about starting Murray due to his overall poor performance this season.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
NegativeInjury12:00
Lamar Jackson was listed as full participation at practice as of Wednesday, but still has pain cutting and sprinting; pain tolerance is the remaining concern. Pre-injury, he led all QBs in EPA per dropback and averaged 23.2 fantasy points per game. Post-injury return last year, his numbers dropped to 14.2 fantasy points per game (identical to Aaron Rodgers), with worse EPA per dropback, passer rating, accurate throw rate, and turnover-worthy throw rate. Without hyper-mobility, Lamar becomes a pocket passer without elite arm talent, allowing defenses to play him honestly without QB spies or linebacker shading. The source characterizes this as 'Lamar Jackson without his hyper mobility is like Cyclops without his laser vision. He's just a guy.' Expected production level is closer to 115% Tyler Huntley rather than his typical 250% ceiling.
Insight pageMatthew Golden
NegativeProjection9:09
The source describes Matthew Golden as potentially 'the best cost adjusted pick you could have made in all of fantasy.' He ranks WR8 in expected fantasy points per game and leads the league in air yards. Currently WR15 in fantasy points per game, but if drop rate regresses to normal baselines, he projects as a mid-range to low-end WR1. His volume and usage are trending up; he has 14 more targets than Christian Watson, making him the WR1 by volume moving forward. However, he also leads the league in drops and drop air yards, creating downside risk if volume doesn't sustain or if drop rate doesn't regress.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
PositiveValue27:54
Despite panic about Michael Wilson following the Marvin Harrison Jr. trade, the source trusts his volume, which remains excellent. The source attributes recent underperformance to bad luck and Jacoby Brissett playing poorly rather than a fundamental role decline. Even if Wilson finishes below average in efficiency, his volume should support a ranking around low-end WR2 at worst. Wilson is WR16 in XFP per game and faces a favorable matchup against Dallas, which plays single high at the third highest rate in the league. He's nearly three times as efficient against single high this year and ranks top 12 in targets per route run against single high over the last two years, well above Trey McBride, making this a better spot for Wilson than McBride on paper.
Insight pageTee Higgins
PositiveMatchup26:04
Tee Higgins had 90+ yards in four straight games before the bye week, when he was used as a decoy. He faces a top-10 matchup against Tennessee alongside Ja'Marr Chase, positioning him as a strong play in this elite defensive matchup.
Insight pageTommy Tremble
NegativeMatchup2:15
The source explicitly calls out Tommy Tremble as the sole exception to an otherwise favorable fantasy matchup environment in the Packers-Panthers game. While the rest of the slate shows strong fantasy upside (described as 'greens all up and down the board'), Tremble is not on anyone's radar and does not benefit from the favorable game conditions, suggesting limited fantasy relevance in this spot.
Insight pageTony Pollard
PositiveMatchup20:00
Likes Tony Pollard in this matchup against Cincinnati because the Bengals have been so bad against the run; Cincinnati ranks fourth-best in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. Over the last five weeks, Cincinnati has given up 5 yards per carry and 549 yards on the ground over four games with a super high explosive run rate. However, this is conditional on depth chart status: if Taj Spears is out, start Pollard; if Taj Spears is back, don't start him. The source notes Pollard's bullcase argument—he averages 36.5 fantasy points in games the Titans have led at least 7% of the time, though that was a one-game sample size and the source doubts Tennessee will lead in this forecasted blowout.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveUsage29:00
McBride is a short-area-of-the-field demon who wins from zero to nine yards, with a huge swath of his production coming from that zone. In 12 games over the last two years where Brissett dropped back 40+ times, McBride averages an insane 11 targets per game and 24 fantasy points per game. He hits no matter what happens, even when defenses contract and congest around him and Wilson.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveMatchup13:40
Projected to go nuclear in Ravens-Bills matchup; Buffalo is giving up the most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers. Flowers moves all over the formation and will face mismatch opportunities against a defense terrible against both slot and outside receivers. This is Flowers' first full game with Lamar Jackson for the entirety of the game after playing only two full quarters in each of his first three games. With Lamar on field, Flowers averages 8 yards per route run. Great matchup on paper in this high-scoring game (54 over/under, second-highest on the slate).
Insight pageZay Jones
NegativeMatchup24:33
Against the Bengals defense last week, Zay Jones recorded 10 catches for 137 yards, but the source notes that production was 'all after the catch basically' and 'weren't like getting beaten routes.' The Bengals are elite at stopping the deep ball and funnel shorter/underneath routes, suggesting Jones's intermediate route tree is his calling card.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Can you do me a favor? No. Pull out your phone. Do you have your phone? Yeah. Hold it in your hand like this. Okay.
0:06Yeah. Go to the alarm tool. Have you ever used the alarm tool? But here's this cool feature you have. You can go repeat. You click it. You're Tom Coughlin. I'm 10 minutes late. I'm being dead serious.
0:20You can check Monday. You can check Tuesday. And you can check Wednesday since we record at the same time those three days.
0:25All right. Well, you know what I was doing? It was very important. What were you doing? firing off banger tweets.
0:34That CTE tweet really important to get off instead of being here on time, wasn't it?
0:39My, you know, my uncle was was has been sending me a bunch of emails about it. I don't I don't know why. He's a literal
0:4699th percentile genius, John Hopkins researcher. I I was going to send him that tweet. He's that good of a researcher. What happened to you?
0:59Shout out [clears throat] Uncle George. Shout out. Any relation to Big Red?
1:09Are you serious? What? [laughter] That's awesome.
1:15So sick. [music] All right, game one of [music] 14, Thursday Night Football. The Carolina Panthers traveling to Lambeau Field to
1:28take on the Packers. Both teams looking for a bounceback performance after a disappointing week seven. The overunder here is 47 and a half. Green Bay a three and a half point favorite at home. Scott, do you have any early leans on
1:40Gamecript here? Uh well, three and a half point favorite that's roughly 60% chance for the Packers to win. Um but you know I I typically qualify you know plus minus
1:52three and a half as shootout spread. You know it's a close game implies shootout potential and um yeah I think we see a pass heavy affair by pass rate over
2:05expectation. Both offenses are top three. And so, you know, it's the third highest overunder of the slate. And I I see this game with massive shootout potential. Could be a
2:17fantasy bonanza. You sort of see that on the screen here. It's a whole lot of green, baby. It's just greens all up and
2:24down the board except for Tommy Tremble, who, you know, is wasn't on anyone's radar to begin with. So, yeah, whole whole bunch of fantasy goodness in this spot. Hm. That's interesting. I I kind of have a
2:37different feel. I think Oh, I think maybe the overunder is a little high here. Okay. Okay. Uh let me guess. Let me
2:45guess. We just saw Bryce Young turn back into a pumpkin. Looked like 2022 to 2025. Bryce Young or 23. But um and
2:56Packers defense maybe looked a pretty decent last week and the week before that. Packers defense did not look decent last week. Okay. Well, not that, but Josh Jacobs is back. So, they lean on the run, slow the
3:07That's That's my lean here is I think both teams kind of lean a little bit heavier into the run game.
3:13The one thing the Packers have done really well so far this year is their deep passing, but it's kind of built
3:18like a paper tiger. I think I talked about this last week or or earlier this week even. And the Panthers, shockingly,
3:25have been awesome against the deep ball. I think they've only given up six receptions on throws 20 or more yards downfield and a couple of those came in in week two versus the Lions or week three, whatever it was. So, I I do think
3:38um I think this is going to be a more ball control style game. I think you're going to see a lot of Chuba and a lot of
3:44Josh Jacobs. Really like this match up for Josh Jacobs. The Carolina Panthers. I know we're listing him as a start anyways, but just for a little added juice, maybe play some props on him. Um, Carolina Panthers have been really bad
3:55against the run when they've been tested and when they've been in favorable game scripts where they have a lead, they haven't really been tested like that Detroit game, but in games where they're losing like Chicago, like Tampa Bay,
4:06they've gotten absolutely obliterated on the ground. They've given up over 200 yards to running backs in both those games. So, I think if the Packers are they're the home team favorite, I think they keep it, you know, it's going to
4:19favor them throughout the game. I think Josh Jacobs is like probably better than running back 14, but we're not going to
4:24get into that. No. So, I agree with that. I I do think there's a high degree of volatility here. A lot of variance. We, you know, I cited the pro numbers, top three for
4:36both offenses, but keep in mind, last week was Josh Jacob's first game back. Yeah.
4:41Uh his usage and volume was great. He scored 20.1 fantasy points uh on 21.7 XFP that ranked top five on the week. I will say all of that came through the air. Five catches, 55 yards and a score
4:55on the ground. 3.3 yards per carry. And that's really what you've seen from the Packers all year is this running game
5:02sucks. Their offensive line sucks. And well, the Lions run defense is really good, too, by the way.
5:10Sure. and and you know buried lead is the Panthers have the worst run defense in football. They're giving up the most rushing fantasy points per game, the highest yards per carry, 5.21, the
5:22highest rushing yards over expectation per carry. So if there was ever a get right spot, it has to be this one. And so Josh Jacobs RB14 after his first game
5:34back getting, you know, top five workload at the position. Um, yeah, I would start him with confidence as, you know, this is one of the best spots he's gonna get for a while. Uh, as as a
5:46low-end RB1 at worst. Yep. Agree. I like the flip side of that, too, with Chuba Hubard. I think it's a ball. Like, we saw Bryce turn of the pumpkin. We know Green Bay is
5:56incredibly aggressive when it comes to coverage disguises. Those typically have been the types of things that trip Bryce Young up. Um, we saw Bryce really struggle with with two high disguise looks last week against Tampa Bay. I
6:09think that's exactly it leans right into Green Bay's wheelhouse of what they do. Um, so I think Green Bay is just going
6:14to build off of the tape Tampa Bay put out last week. I I really like both run games in this affair. Yeah, Green I'm not out on the pass
6:21catchers, by the way. I just really like the run game. Yeah, Green Bay allows the six most fantasy points per game to opposing
6:27running backs. Uh, so it's a good spot for Chuba Hubard as well, who up until last week finishes a fantasy RB1 every
6:34single week. Um, do you have a a lean here on the wide receivers, Jaylen Coker and T McMillan? Because I do. Okay. If you have a lean, work it out in
6:47real time with me. Well, it it's coming down to the schematic matchup, which is, you know, really one of our most potent edges here and biggest advantages as, you know, partly a data company, Fantasy Points
6:59Data. Uh we spend a lot of time tracking looking into these coverage shell matchups and that's not something that that Vegas prices in. You know, they look at the opposing cornerback you're
7:11facing, how good the opposing defense is at limiting play volume. They don't spend a ton of time with this. And so if
7:19I were a betting man, Brett, I I think I would go with the under on on Jaylen Coker, the over on T McMillan. Green Bay
7:26plays two high coverage at the third highest rate in the league. twothirds of the time. Jaylen Coker is 36% less efficient against too high this year over the last two years. Uh but that's really more so where T McMillan shines,
7:40becomes more of the focal point. He's at 2.71 yards per route run against Tuhai this year. That's that's a top 10 rate. And so uh yeah, I really like him. I you
7:51keep seeing people talk about these well in their last 10 full games together.
7:56You know, Jaylen Coker averages five more yards per game. Yeah. I I don't know how much that matters when, you know, he was he was playing through a serious foot injury at the tail end of last year. Coker had some pristine uh
8:09schematic matchups up until this point. And again, this is a bad one, but uh listen, T McMillan, he's at eight plus
8:15targets, 75 plus yards in four of six games. uh wide receiver 12 in fantasy points per game on the year. XFP right around there. So I like him uh just about where we have him projected as a
8:27low-end wide receiver one. Yeah, Poker is a step below that. How is Green Bay at defending the slot in in your numbers? Our numbers, I should say. Uh they are the 10th best defense at
8:39defending the slot. Okay. And they're the fourth worst defense at defending outside wide receivers. So what do we call that? We we would call that a reverse slot funnel. That's um further beneficial for
8:52T McMillan. Boom. Although Coker is playing on the outside a lot more than he did early in the year. Yeah. But still, you know, McMillan's more on the outside than he is.
9:05Cool. Um anything on these Packers white outs? I mean, you're starting them if you got them. They've been awesome. I I
9:11think maybe Are you Are you Brad? Well, you have to start them, Scott. Come on. I I I would start them with the
9:17expectation that they underperform by a little bit. No, you you're you're absolutely you're starting them as as wide receiver once.
9:24Like there's if you invested in this Green Bay passing attack, you are just like counting stacks, throwing money in the air. Uh it's been glorious. I think
9:35even with Josh Jacobs coming back in a perfect matchup, you still have to view both of these guys as wide receiver ones. Yeah. Listen, you're definitely starting both of these guys. I I think there's a world
9:46where Matthew Golden turns out to be the best cost adjusted pick you could have made in all of fantasy. Uh he's the wide receiver eight right now in XFP per
9:57game. He leads the league in air yards. Uh but he also leads the league in drops and drop air yards. He's wide receiver
10:0515 in fantasy points per game on the year. You know, with just like if that regresses to normal baselines, like yeah, you should be a mid-range to low-end wide receiver one. but like his volume and usage is trending up. He has
10:1714 more targets than Christian Watson. Um, and so the argument for Matthew Golden as like a mid-range wide receiver one moving forward is just yeah, like he looks like the wide receiver one by
10:29volume. Uh, which is the stickier thing. The argument against is well like maybe they just stopped doing that because the guy uh is just dropping the ball at the highest rate in the league by a lot. And you have Christian Watson who's sort of
10:42the reverse of Matthew Golden. He's the wide receiver six in fantasy points per game. He's already a wide receiver one and he's doing it on fringe wide receiver one levels of volume. Just wide receiver 11 in XFP per game. Um I also
10:55like Watson more in this spot. Carolina plays zone at the fourth highest rate in the league. Christian Watson this year is seven times as efficient against zone coverage. Uh 3.45 yards per rat run than
11:09against man. Golden meanwhile is clearly the team's man beater. He is uh more than double the target per route run of
11:16any other player on the team. So we just talked about it. Uh T McMillan overs, Jaylen Coker unders, and then this one, Christian Watson overs, Matthew Golden
11:27unders. That's the way I would play it if I were a betting man. Yeah, I like Watson more than Golden this week. I do I do think they'll both slightly underperform, though. Um all right, let's move on. Let's move
11:39on to to game two. The Baltimore I almost said the Buffalo Ravens. The Baltimore Ravens travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills. Crazy overunder, a 54 in this game. Buffalo is also a three
11:52and a half point favorite at home. Gamecript wise, we're obviously feeling shootouts. Scott, any other notes beyond that? Yeah. Yeah. Again, a three-point favorite. That's that shootout spread. The totals very high, second highest
12:06overunder on the slate. But you look at the matchup, it's just, yeah, Buffalo is giving up the third most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, third most fantasy points per game to running
12:18backs, the most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers. Against the slot, they're bottom 10 as well against tight ends, bottom 12. And so it's just,
12:28you know, one of the most exploitable defenses in the league. And then even the Ravens, they're bottom five in fantasy points per game to wide receivers. So that's beneficial on Buffalo's side as And if Lamar Jackson
12:39plays, you know, this this uh this overunder might not be optimistic enough because you have sure the matchup's insanely favorable for
12:50Lamar. The offense gets a major boost when he's back. Uh but like for Josh Allen, matchups don't matter. It's really just like, hey, do you do they need the best quarterback in football to
13:02be Superman to put the entire team on his back and go crazy? He will. 95% of the time, regardless of the opponent, he can do that. He will do that. And yeah,
13:13this defense has massively regressed. That's beneficial for Lamar and his supporting cast, but it's also beneficial for Josh Allen. They're giving up more than a touchdown per game than he did last year. And it's like, yeah, he needs to be Superman. Uh they
13:26need to be aggressive on offense. And so, yeah, this this looks like another fantasy bonanza. Although, just because of how I don't know how both teams like to spread the ball around a lot and the Bills in particular like to cap route
13:43shares. You don't see as much green on the board, but still like I see Z Flowers going nuclear. I see a big game for DJ Moore. I see both quarterbacks
13:54going crazy. Derrick Henry major bounceback. uh you just you just have to penalize uh just about everyone if if Lamar's another week. However, I think Lamar's playing. He as of the
14:09recording today, he was an FP at practice, which is Wednesday today. So, yeah. And I talked to Jeff Mueller. He said it's really just pain tolerance uh for him at this point. But he still has
14:21pain cutting and sprinting at this point. But this ties us back to a conversation that I I I kept saying in
14:29the offseason trying to excuse Lamar Jackson's numbers last year. Uh maybe we could show it on the screen, but before he suffered this injury, he was lighting
14:40the world on fire. He led all quarterbacks in EPA for dropback, averaged 23.2 fantasy points per game, and you saw the same thing last year before the injury. And then he came back and bro, his numbers were identical to
14:52Aaron Rogers. 14.2 fantasy points per game to 14.2 fantasy points per game.
14:58And then he was worse in EPA per drop back, passer rating, accurate throw rate, hero throw rate, turnover worthy throw rate. And so this is what I say with Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson
15:08without his hyper mobility is like Cyclops without his laser vision. He's just a guy. Defenses can play him honestly. they can keep. They don't have to put a QB spy on him. They don't have
15:20to worry put the linebackers shaded up front. They don't have to worry about him running all over them. And you could
15:26treat him like a pocket passer and a pocket passer Lamar Jackson is not. And so that was something I wanted to ask
15:32you about here is do you think we see not the Lamar of old but maybe like 115% Tyler Huntley instead of Lamar's typical
15:45250%. Well I mean I I said it all offseason my hypothesis was that Declan Doyle would be the best thing to happen to Lamar Jackson because of that. He hasn't been a very good pocket passer, but I think Declan
15:58Doyle fixes that. Just the pass concepts, you know, he comes from the Shawn Peyton coaching tree by way of Ben Johnson. Um, it's designed for pocket passing. That's what they want. It's a
16:09It's a West Coast system. It's a supercharged West Coast system. I I think Lamar Jackson should be relatively fine. You're not You're not going to get the the crazy fantasy production you do, but I think he'll be enough to get
16:21explosive games from Z Flowers. That's really all that matters to me. That that was really my only note from this game was Zbe Bay because [laughter]
16:30I like that note. Buffalo's terrible against the slot. They're terrible against outside receivers. Zay Flowers moves all over the formation. He's going they're going
16:36to do whatever they can to get him in mismatch opportunities and [snorts] he's freaking awesome. It will be the first game he had played all season with Lamar Jackson for the entirety of the game. Yeah. Yeah. Which is a crazy stat. Like
16:48listen, this is your inseason Exodia. Uh and we haven't even he he hasn't even hit his final form. He's wide receiver five and fantasy points per game, which is an inaccurate stat. Not just because
16:59of all the Tyler Huntley weeks, but the first three games, he basically only played two full quarters in each of the
17:07first three. And then uh uh on top of that, with Lamar Jackson on the field, he average he averages eight yards per route, which is JSN is having one of the
17:21best seasons in NFL history. and he's he's like half that. So, um yeah, and it's a great matchup on paper. So, Zabbe
17:29Bay and uh give me ladders. Give me ladders if uh if Lamar is back. We We said that last week. Uh Zay Ladders last week. That worked out quite
17:41well for us. Yes, absolutely. I like DJ Moore a little bit in this game as well. Um he goes against presumably more more Marlon Humphrey than anybody. Marlon Humphrey has been bad this season. So I know
17:53fellow fellow fantasy points um fellow is uh fellow fellow is Thomas Tipple big Ravens guy. He wants Marlon Humphrey cut. So DJ Moore is going to draw him in
18:06coverage most of the time and I think that that's a win for DJ Moore at this stage. Yeah, I like him. I'm optimistic really.
18:13Uh five plus catches, 67 plus yards in both of his full games. But here's a better stat for you. Look at it on a per route basis. Wide receiver two and air
18:23yards per route run. Wide receiver 11 and targets per route run. That is elite utilization for let's not lose sight of
18:30the fact that it's a wide receiver one catching passes from the best quarterback in football. Uh so I I was a
18:37DJ Moore skeptic coming into the season, but uh bullish for however long you know he's top 12 in those stats. Yeah. Worth noting that that sample size is shorter than Bryce Young. So
18:49It's a good one, Brett. All right. Game three, the Tennessee Titans. Oh, wait. Hold on. I got a I got a Don
18:54Concade stat for you. Oh, you do? Okay. You want to guess where he ranks by yards per route run?
19:00Um, do I want to guess? So, Brock Bower is having a crazy season. Trey McBride going nuts. Isaiah likely going nuclear. Okay. Where does Don Concaid rank? I'll say 11th first.
19:13No, he doesn't. He does. [gasps] He does. So, did the role go back backwards?
19:19No. Yeah. Yeah. The row share has come back down to about which is weird without DJ Moore. Um, and also uh he he
19:28kind of sucks against too high. Baltimore plays too high at a top five rate. That should honestly be uh Yeah, go ahead. This is like uh what came first, the chicken or the egg. So, I've been noting and remember in all these shows
19:40Buffalo's pass game looks broken, but it's like okay, well, you're taking your best pass catcher off the field and Daltton Concade. So, is it broken because Kade's off the field? Or did they take him off the field because it's
19:52broken? Cuz they needed to go to a run game. It's like, what came first, the chicken or the egg?
19:57I don't know. They get into these game scripts sometimes where they're just like, "Yeah, we're going to run James Cook 25 times, Josh Allen 10, backup
20:03running backs five a piece." It's like, I don't know, whatever. That's a That's a fun stat, though. So, if he gets the
20:09roll back, you're saying there's a chance. Yeah. But, you know, you're not starting him with confidence this week?
20:14No. Game three, the Tennessee Titans travel to Cincinnati. Uh, this is a a forecasted blowout as you would expect with Tennessee being arguably the worst team in the league. Over under here, 46
20:25and a half, but that's heavy on the Cincinnati side with an implied point total of 28.5. They're a 10 and a half
20:32point favorite at home. This is this is wild. And the craziest part about that is Scott, I really want to like Tony
20:39Pard in this matchup because Cincinnati's been so bad against the run, but uh I just don't know that I can get there. [laughter] I mean, he just went nuclear last week. I know. I know. It's like shout out to Chris Wack, by the way. No
20:51one We were the highest in the industry on Tony Pard last week. And so like the the bullcase argument you can make is hey he he averages 36.5 fantasy points
21:03in games the Titans have led at least 7% of the time. Uh 7% that's that's the qualifier. The Yeah. The bad news is that was only a oneame sample size. I don't think
21:13they're going to lead for a single second in this game. Uh and before that he had a high of just 13.6 fantasy
21:19points on the year. I think even last year he had like two games over that.
21:24So, um, wait, you're you're saying this is a great match up for him because the numbers don't bear that out to me. Uh, they bear it out to me, sir. Cincinnati fourth best in fantasy points
21:36per game to running backs. Yeah, you're you're looking. Let's see here.
21:42Are you schedule adjusted and I'm not? Is that what's going on? Nope. I can tell you in two seconds.
21:48Maybe it's the underlying yards before contact per attempt. Something like But hey, listen. This one's very simple. If Taj Spears is out, you're starting him. If Taj Spears is back, you're not starting. That's That's how I would play
22:01it. Interesting. Do we actually know what's up with Taj Spears? I I meant to look that up.
22:07I don't know. He's been in and out of the lineup, right? Okay. Last five weeks, Cincinnati Bengals given up five yards a carry, 549 yards on the ground. That's over four games.
22:19Okay. So, they're get they're getting gashed. Super high explosive run rate. Yeah. You saw them look amazing those those first few games of the season, but if you look over the more recent sample, fair enough.
22:30Yeah. And and remember early in the season I was saying that they weren't even getting tested and that that's kind of what you see.
22:36Now that they're getting tested, it's it's been bad. Yeah. So, let's see. They gave up what 88 and a touchdown to Ali
22:43Gordon recently, 127 to Jaylen Warren. So, I think and they shut down Derk Henry.
22:51Yeah, that I mean that's game script though. They they beat the piss out of Baltimore. Yeah, Dererick Henry had like two carries in the second half or something. So
23:02they're a really weird dichotomy because like they have not been tested in most games, but when they have been tested, it hasn't been great. So Basil Tutin had the the 73 yards and the two called back
23:14touchdowns against them. So anyways, I I like Tony Pard. I like Tony Pard and I think there's a chance. So like Cam Ward's coming off probably his best game as a pro. Not statistically obviously but from the tape standpoint. Tony Pard
23:27his best game statistically in a while. So it's like well maybe we're building on something with the Titans and they get into this game and they're like hey
23:32we're we're heavy underdogs. Let's try to shorten the game. We're going to pound the rock you know ball control take care of it like that. I I think pard there's a chance. I think there's a chance and I I really do like the matchup here.
23:44Yeah. Cardinal Tate, you excited? No. I mean, he's got a great role.
23:51Ridiculous role, right? Well, I could do the same thing. I could do the same thing I just did with Tony Pard. Uh, in games, Cam Ward H has thrown for over 185 passing yards, which
24:03is like nothing, which is like the Tanner McKe has a projection above that this week. Um, in games, Cam Ward has
24:11over 185 passing yards. He averages 145 yards per game. The bad news is that's that's only one game all year and he's largely sucked outside of that. He does rank top 10 in first read target share.
24:24It's just like the grossest deadest offense with the worst quarterback in football throwing him the ball. Uh so I I'm I'm in line with our our projections here. Yeah, Bengals corners are good, too, man. So
24:38I don't know. They they gave up like 10 and 137 to Z last week, but that was all after the catch basically. Those weren't
24:44like getting beaten routes. So, you know, they're elite at stopping the deep ball and they're kind of funneling stuff shorter and underneath. I kind of assumed the bulk of Tate's production was coming deep and that wasn't the case
24:56at all. Yeah. Intermediate, right? Yeah. So, yeah, that's that's what that's his calling card. Intermediate.
25:01Okay. Yeah. All right. Anything on the Bengals side? I mean, you're starting these guys minus Sam Per, right? You're starting Chase, Higgins, Brown, Burrow. I think we feel really comfortable with all that. The The only worry for the pass
25:13catchers is that this game gets so out of hand that they stop throwing, right? I mean, yeah. I mean, even with that in mind, uh the Bengals have the highest PO pass
25:25rate over expectation in football, that takes into account because Chase Brown sucks, by the way. Yes. That that takes into account
25:31playing with a lead. And so they've always under Zack Taylor been aggressive, you know, scoring touchdowns deep in the fourth quarter despite multiple touchdown leads. The Lions are like that as well. Uh and Burrow has
25:42been on fire. 25.7 fantasy points per game over his last three. Um he's now the QB2 in fantasy. Um Burrow is I thought I thought golf was. No, it's it's Burrow now. He overtook
25:54him and so yeah, they're 10.5 point favorites, but they also have the second highest implied point total of the slate. He could get there in a half. you know, there's going to be great starting field position, a ton of red zone drives
26:06in the first half. So, uh, you're starting him with confidence, and then I I have a little bit of a hot take here.
26:14You've heard me allude to it on yesterday's episode, the one before that as well, but it's, you know, we have Chase well ahead of T. Higgins, and I'm questioning that. I'm questioning that because, uh, minus the game before the
26:26buy where T. Higgins was basically the decoy. He had 90 plus yards in four straight games. Jamar Chase has zero games over 95 yards all year. Uh he's
26:39the wide receiver 10 in fantasy football. Even if you you count the decoy game, you count the other stuff.
26:44Um and this is a top 10 matchup for for both Higgins and Chase. But you and I talked about it. You saw it on the tape. You think uh you know Chase isn't quite right? They're both a little banged up,
26:56but Chase is someone who wins on athleticism a little bit more than T. Higgins. He Chase is off the injury report,
27:01though. Oh, okay. And Tennessee is dreadful against the slot. And they're going to get Chase in the slot at least 30% of routes,
27:08possibly more. And even when he's not in the slot, he's like reduced or condensed. And so, it's basically a slot route tree. I uh typically I would agree with you on this. I I think Chase is back, though. I
27:20think this is a good week for him. All right, you sold me. Awesome. Cool. Game four, the Arizona Cardinals travel to the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas a heavy home favorite. Six and a half points. This is the Is this the biggest
27:33overunder on the slate? 54 and a half. This is a a massive total. I guess it's because both defenses royally stink.
27:40Cardinals have an implied point total 24. The Cowboys at 30.5. We love these game strips. This is just shootout, shootout, shootout, start them if you got them kind of thing. I will say though, are we panicking about
27:52Michael Wilson at all yet? Well, that's a good question. Let's let's start off there. You people are panicking there. The narrative is that he needed Marvin Harrison Jr. He needed
28:03that sacrificial X to get him open. And now without that, no one really to stretch the defense that's not Kendrick Bor kind of overlaps in that short to intermediate area of the field. Uh he's
28:16in trouble. I kind of don't see that. I think it's just kind of like bad luck in Jacobe Brassette just playing really poorly. And uh I'm gonna trust the volume, which is excellent, that he even
28:29if he's below average in efficiency to round out the year, is still, you know, about where we have him ranked, like a low-end wide receiver, two at worst. But what do you think? You're the film expert. You're the best film
28:42guy in the game, so you tell me. I'm just a numbers nerd. Um, yeah. I, you know, I I think Wilson still looks really, really good. I think the the usage pattern in in the route
28:55distribution sometimes gets a little cloudy with Trey McBride on the field.
29:00It'd be like, well, think about it like this. Like, you know, Trey McBride is a short area of the field demon. That's where he wins. Zero to nine yards. Like, a huge swath of his productions coming from
29:12that zone. But that's kind of been the route distribution for Michael Wilson, too. And so it's like, you know, if you're going to put them on opposite sides of the field and and you're going to primary Trey McBride and run the offense through him, well, guess what?
29:27Jacobe Brassette's probably throwing it to the all-world tight end first. And so I'd like to see them mix it up a little
29:32bit. And that's what they were doing earlier in the season. Michael Wilson was uses the motion man a lot more than he is lately. He's been in a really
29:39static role. You you asked me yesterday, I think, if Marvin Harrison Jr. being gone is hurting Michael Wilson and I think I shot it down kind of immediately. Yeah. But in hindsight, I went back and watched through some tape. I'm like, you
29:52know what? I think that's actually a really smart call. There's no one taking the top off this defense. And so when you're seeing teams can play single high and they can smother the underneath routes. Trey
30:03McBride is all world, so he's going to get his no matter what happens. Michael Wilson is paid like he's all world, but
30:09like he's got to earn it a little bit more. I think Mike Laflur needs to do a better job at getting him in space
30:14freely like he was early in the season. But I think that is kind of what's going on. Like the defenses can contract and
30:20congest around those two and and McBride still gets his targets, but Wilson hasn't. Yeah. So, in this spot, everyone should eat. It's Yeah. two really bad defenses. is they both rank bottom three in EPA per dropback.
30:37Uh the the Cowboys, they're bottom five in schedule adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. They're uh bottom five against the slot, bottom 10 against
30:47running backs. Arizona the worst fantasy points per drop back allowed. Um and so yeah, it's it looks great here. It's such a shame for Jacobe Brassette, but he's he's playing awful. There was a
31:02phenomenal stat from Ryan Heath. So he's he's right now the QB8 in XFP per game, which is measures volume. He's the QB 21 in fantasy points per game. And that
31:15minus 4.8 point gap is the worst by a full-time starter in fantasy points data history.
31:23And so I brought this up to you recently. I'm like, it's it's we're getting close to that time, that Carson Beck time, and this might be the ultimate spot because this is an awful Cowboys defense. They rank third worst
31:35in adjusted net yards per attempt. That's despite playing three backups in Marcus Mariota, Jaylen Daniels, Tanner McKe, and so yeah, you know what's interesting? Cowboys
31:48have been sneakily good against tight ends. They gave up week one they gave up eight catches for 78 and two touchdowns
31:54to Isaiah likely. Since then, dude, like nothing. Dallas 548. Tucker Craft 5 for 37. K. Do three for 25. Daltton Schulz two for nine. Like Mark Andrews 3 for 24.
32:08They've been like sneaky good against tight ends. So yeah, maybe this is Michael Wilson week, Scott. Maybe it is. Well, yeah. For for one thing, I I don't know that it's fair. For one thing,
32:20tight end matchups are overrated. Like, it matters a lot for slot wide receivers, outside wide receivers, running backs. For tight ends, it's
32:26generally overrated. And then Trey McBride might also be one of those guys might also be one of those guys where it's like, do you even classify him as a tight end rather than a slot wide receiver? He's he's a big slot. Yeah. And he's a
32:38move tight end. He's a move tight end. Yeah. So the note on him and then I'll get to circle back to Michael Wilson
32:44that Ryan Heath had yet again. In 12 games over the last two years where Brassette dropped back 40 plus times, Trey McBride averages an insane 11 targets per game, 24 fantasy points per
32:56game. So he just he just hits no matter what. It's what it feels like. But I do like this a lot for Michael Wilson. Like I said, the volume's great. Wide receiver 16 in XFP per game. And Dallas
33:10Maybe things change uh with no Marv, but you talked about it. Teams don't have to teams playing single high. Dallas plays single high at the third highest rate in the league. He's nearly three times as
33:24efficient against single high this year. Over the last two years, he's top 12 in targets per route run against single high, well above Trey McBride. So, I do think this looks like a better spot for
33:35Michael Wilson than Trey McBride on paper. Yeah, I I think I like that on the Dallas side. Just just play him right outside of outside of Florenoi and Ferguson obviously, but CD pickings
33:47Javant I think it's a great spot for Javvante by the way. I actually touted him on on John's Visen show. Why? Um well, Arizona's run defense is complete garbage. And furthermore,
34:00they're really bad against zone. They they give up like 6 yards per carry more against zone concepts. Javvante is a zone heavy runner who's also better in zone run concepts than gap concepts. So,
34:12I know it's a little bit of micro analysis, but those matchups are typically pretty sticky. And Javvante looks awesome. So, I start all my research with the tape. Yeah, tape tape on Javvante is just
34:22phenomenal. He looks fantastic. So, I think he's he's got his explosiveness back to where it was pre-injjury, which is like three years ago at this point, but took him a long time to get it back, but he he looks back. He was one of my
34:34favorite prospects ever coming out. He's fun. He is so fun. And then uh really just looked like a shell of his former self for years. But yeah, you saw it on the tape and I I gotta say when I start my
34:45research, I watch the spreadsheets and spreadsheet said uh he looks great. So I'm I'm with you. It's also Yeah, I just had an insane idea. Let's hear it. You should feed
34:59Oh my gosh. You should you should come up with what you think are the most valuable statistics on a play level.
35:05Yeah. And then feed it to Claude and ask it to recreate the play on video and see what it looks like. And then you could actually watch your spreadsheets. Okay. No, I don't, bro. That'd be so fun. That'd be so fun.
35:17Come on. Listen, we we've been over this. It's I'm like a beautiful mind. I just I just comb through the spreadsheets and I see the plays in my head. I don't need Claude to do it for me. Uh but hey,
35:27listen. 30.75 point implied total for the Cowboys, highest on the week. That is massive. And that is massive for Javvante Williams, who is like Derrick Henry.
35:38He's more Derrick Henry this year than Derrick Henry. He looks better on the ground. And massive touchdown upside, especially this week. So, I'm with you. Uh Javvante, where do we have him in the
35:51start set? We have him Yeah. as a top five option. And I I I have to get on board with that. His prop on the week
35:58consensus is 79 and a half yards. I like it. But here's the thing, Scott. What What were we gonna say? I was gonna say I like I like anytime two touchdowns more, I would say.
36:08Oo. So yeah, I wouldn't necessarily take betting advice from you and I though, Scott. You know who I would take betting advice from?
36:13Who? Our head better, Tom Broly. Our head of projections, Chris Wet. They're a combined up 39 units on the season. Tom
36:22Malone hitting 64% of his bets. He was over 60% last year. That means if you tailed their picks with a hundred bucks
36:28per unit, you'd be up nearly $4,000. All thanks to Fantasy Points. We're not even two months into the season. Like, you literally could, you know, get your wife home from work, you know, have her
36:41have her raise the kids, homeschool the kids, and uh and and make up her income with a little bit of tailing Tom Broly and Christopher Wet. You know what I'm saying? And we have a promo code for you. Promo code grinder gets you 70% off
36:54your first month of our in-season betting package. That brings the cost down to 5250. Head over to fantasypoints.com and start winning today. So So 5250 for a month. And if you'd
37:08been tailing those two guys, you you'd already be up nearly $4,000.
37:13Yeah. And it's about to get better, too, because we also have like Justin Barnes is the third official better. He always
37:19starts seasons a little third and final together they're 37 units he's down minus two but uh and Tom and Chris are 39 and those are our only official betterers. Point being the boom for Varn is coming.
37:32He's been over 60% also the last three years. Yeah. Crazy. Um he like his track record is insane.
37:38And so he he's one of those guys who really comes on in the second half like you need to build up a sample of data y to
37:43work with and so he always starts off slow and then is just white hot. Exactly. Exactly. So, he's a good guy to
37:48tail now. So, remember fantasypoints.com promo code grinder for 70% off your first month our inseason betting package. All right, let's finish up this game. We got uh CD Lamb and George Pickkins. What's
38:00up? What's up? What's up? What's up? You tell me. I don't know, man. I like them both. I I always do. They're both Yeah, I know you do. I To me, this is a CD game. Uh, again, you know, I'm I'm
38:13not the genius proven winner Tom Broly is, but I I again, I like this kind of angle. CD Lamb over Pickkins under, maybe even CD
38:25ladders. It's Arizona plays too high at the highest rate in the league. That really benefits CD Lamb over George Pickkins, who's more of a single high beater. Um, and also, by the way, Arizona not good at too high. They're
38:37giving up the most fantasy points per drop back when in too high coverage. Um, but I I need to to run that by you,
38:44Brett. Like, does that check check out to you or you is this like a different type of too high coverage where maybe
38:50it's misleading? It's the bad kind. What does that mean? Like sucking it. Yeah. Okay.
38:57It's like it doesn't matter. You know, last time we had this debate, there was some actual signal that George Pickkins was getting the the target bump against
39:03too high. I I think that sense flipped on its head, but um you know, worth noting George Pickkins did in fact go
39:09off in that game. I I do think Dak looks for CD on too high, but it's not like George Pickkins is bad at it either. I I
39:16think we have these guys appropriately slotted to be honest with you. Yeah, I don't know. These guy the the volume discrepancy is massive. So CD is
39:22top three on fantasy points per game in XFP per game. George Piggins, he's like high-end wide receiver three, fringe wide receiver two. I I think the thesis in what
39:35in fantasy points per game, XFP per game, the two best most predictive metrics once we're in season looking forward. And so I I think the thesis we initially had this is wide receiver 1A a
39:46wide receiver 1B. I I don't know that that's right.
39:51Um where where's Pickkins in terms of what uh [snorts] fantasy points per game?
39:5626th. Interesting. Okay.
40:02Well, I have him I have him at 23. I don't know what your data source is, but um yeah, I I think Pickicket is still on he's trending up, so I I feel pretty good about him. Okay,
40:13looks great. Um all right, let's move on. Game five, Vikings at Lions. Detroit favored by three and a half at home. Probably the smallest overunder you'll see this
40:26season in a Lions game, 45. That's because the Vikings defense has been awesome.
40:31However, their offense has not been good. And Detroit's defense is trending up, Scott. Oh, is it? Uh, very much so. So, uh, why don't you
40:43start us here? Where is there anything you like about this Vikings matchups with the Lions defense?
40:49Well, the thing I think is hilarious is it's like really the best defense in football up against one of the best offenses. And then on paper, one of the worst defenses in football against one
41:00of the worst offenses in football. Brett's going to say, "Oh, no. The Lions have really turned a corner. This defense is so much better." Now, you have to factor in mind he's a he's a Lions homer, so he can't
41:11No, I have data to back it up. Don't be a loser. [laughter] I know I'm messing with you. But, uh, if
41:17you look at it across the full season, uh, the Lions are giving up the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks,
41:22the second most to slot wide receivers, the 10th most to outside wide receivers, and the most to tight end. So, I think
41:28even if they have potentially turn a corner, it is a favorable matchup. It's just, can these guys really be able to
41:36take advantage of it? Kyler Murray looks awful. Awful. uh but by just about every measure for a guy who like we were hoping runs he's 28th of 34 quarterbacks and fantasy points per drop back. Uh I
41:49really don't trust him despite you know even if this is a much better matchup than than Brett will say. Um color me
41:56extremely skeptical and so looking at the start sits here even Jordan Mason even Jordan Mason feels high. Yeah. I don't I don't I don't love it. We talked about how they just wanted to
42:10give Aaron Jones a week to catch his breath. Um, and I don't know. I I think I think 6040 at max. And then what is that worth in this spot? Not Not a lot. [snorts] Yeah, I agree. Um, if you have the
42:25fantasy points data suite, you can look at some really cool numbers featuring the Lions. The first thing I'd encourage you to do is go to our onoff tool, check
42:31out the Lions defense onoff splits with Brian Branch from last year to to this year. Um it's pretty stark. They're they're a significantly better defense across the board. Um but then you just look at like the first four games of the
42:45season versus their last two, they've jumped from uh 28th in adjusted yards per attempt allowed to 11th. Uh ninth in uh yards per attempt allowed from 26. Pass rating allowed sits at 13th. A massive improvement from 29th their
43:01first four games. Completion percentage allowed all the way up at third in the NFL. Scott, only 63.3% of passes allowed um to be caught. That was 25th in the first four games of the season. So like they really have kind of turned a
43:15corner. Now the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. I don't think they all of a sudden became a top 10 defense. Scott, I think it's like if we
43:22can just get league average from the Lions defense, that's still a massive improvement though. And I think with Brian Branch back, Kirby Joseph back by
43:29the way for the first time in over a year as well. So, they're going to have both their allp pro safeties um soon. I
43:35don't know that Joseph plays in this game. Probably doesn't. They want to ramp them up. But point being, I think the Lions defense trending in the right
43:40direction. Pressure pack has been awesome as well. Aiden Hutchson had like 18 pass rush wins against the Packers, which is like that's insane. That's like I think Jordan Love had 38 dropbacks. He
43:52had 18 pass rushers wins on 38 dropbacks. It's disgusting. So, feel pretty good about the Lions defense. I feel great about the Lions offense. Do you up against the toughest defense
44:03in football up against Brian Flores, the mad scientist genius?
44:08Yeah, he's a raging psychopath and I kind of like we talked about it like if I if I were the owner of the Vikings, I would just
44:14be like, hey, we're gonna we're gonna we're going to go with a change of plans here. Uh, hey Brian, you're the head
44:19coach this week and moving forward. Kevin Oonnell, good news for now. You're you're the still the offensive coordinator. So that Yeah. Uh, yeah. So, the Lions offense
44:30has traditionally actually wrecked Brian Flores. Last year was a different story, but it was largely in part because the Lions had a massive hole at center. They had Graham Glascow um and and then a slew of third and
44:44fourth string centers in the second game against Max Bromer. I really think with Cade May in the fold with the way this Lions offensive line is playing, they are much better
44:55equipped to handle that blitz. and Jared Goff has traditionally just annihilated this defense. So, you know, they've added a few wrinkles, but I'm I'm not I don't think they're scared. I think they feel really good about the man beaters they have, about the the blitz beaters
45:08they have. Ammon St. Brown is like a 36% target share against the Blitz as well. So, you know, wide receiver 4 feels
45:14super appropriate for him. Maybe we're a little bullish on Gibbs. I know like it's hard to come off the RB1 thing
45:20because the role is ridiculous and he's so explosive, but like Gibbs doesn't get target. He doesn't have a single target against the Blitz this year, Scott. Wow. Not one. And the Vikings, as you know,
45:31blitz on 73% of dropbacks or something ridiculous. So, I would expect Gibbs to be a a heavy heavy part of their pass protection plan this week. Yeah. So, when I dug into the notes, I I
45:45saw some of the same things you're seeing. Um, so Minnesota allows just 9.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They blitz at the highest rate in the league by a lot, 74% of the time. The good news
46:00for Jared Goff is he's easily the league's best quarterback against the Blitz over the last two seasons. 16 touchdowns to zero interceptions, easily the highest EPA per dropback. His fantasy point per dropback uh jumps by
46:1438%. And if you go into the fantasy points data suite, you look at all quarterbacks against Brian Flores over the last five years. Um Jared Goff really one of the better. I think he's
46:26still like a little below his his averages in in all other games, but um certainly seems better equipped. Yeah, those two last year are dragging that down quite a bit, too.
46:37Yeah. So, they're dragging it down for Jared Goff, but they're not dragging it down for Aman Ross St. Brown, who had 12 targets in both of those games. And
46:44since Brian Flores joined the Vikings, he averages 21.4 fantasy points per game uh against Brian Flores. And uh you know, we just talked about the Blitz uh
46:56really one of the highest targets per route run, yards per route run against the Blitz. So um I I feel very confident
47:03in him. And uh the the the question mark really is just is there enough for all of these guys to be starts? And I I wonder how much of that is just like, oh well, we don't really know the answer,
47:16but you know, you have to balance it out in aggrid. It's like, yeah, all these guys come out to be starts.
47:22It's a great question because it's like strength on strength, right? Good defense versus good offense. It's like I don't know. The crazy thing too is like the way the Vikings play, it's like if JMO catches a ball in space, he gone.
47:36Like there's there's no one that's a massive if. He catches the ball. He we all know he's worse hands than Matias Buuker. It's another bit another bit. [snorts] Yeah, man. He looked uh looked like he
47:49really struggled to catch the ball with his five for 92 and two scores last week. Hey, well, I liked him last week. Okay. So, that doesn't count then.
47:55Okay. Well, if they get J Mo open on one of these runaway routes, I I think he could score on one. He could house one. So, yeah. Historically, that's been the vulnerability to this hyperaggressive
48:06Vikings defense is is you can if you're going to beat them anywhere, it typically comes deep.
48:13All right, we good here. Sure. Sure. The Indianapolis Colts are traveling to um Parker Washingtonville.
48:23The Parker Washington Jaguars are Jacksonville Smith and Jigba, baby. Jaguar. Smith and Jiga. It's way cooler.
48:30Keep start saying it that way. Jaguar, Smith, and Jigba. Jackson's in his name. It fits perfectly.
48:36Jacksonville Smith and Jigba. All right. Well, we're talking about Parker Washington, though. You know that, right?
48:42Yeah. That's his nickname is Jacksonville Smith and Jigba. Jaguar Smith and Jigba. Anyways, the Jacksonville Jaguars are nine and a half
48:48point favorites. The overunder is 46 and a half. Uh Scott, I mean, that's a lot of not red for a dead team that's tearing apart their roster. I'm
49:01not even going to talk about Josh DS because I'm assuming he's not playing. But yeah, if they're trying to trade it, I mean, it came out today they're trying to actively trade him, they're going to shut him down, right? You can't you can't put a guy in a a game you're
49:13actively trying to trade. Unless, you know, the alternative to that is like maybe they want to feature him to make to bump the round four pick
49:20to a round. It's not a bunch of Scott Barretts running NFL teams. They don't need to see more tape, you know?
49:26Yeah. They don't they're not desperate to watch. Yeah. Imagine if there were a bunch of Scott Barretts running these NFL teams.
49:31These teams have tape on them. They're they're good. They know what's up. So, kind Marvin Harrison Jr. didn't play that last game with the Cardinals. Yeah. Healthy scratch. Yeah. I mean, like, dude, even if he
49:42does play, check out how gross this stat is that I pulled. Like, who are you starting? Josh DS, who's the ascot, is
49:50not 37 years old. We think is really good. Or Keenan Allen. Uh the stat I had was with Warren off the field, he has a team high 25% target share and
50:04double the targets per route run of Josh DS. Like he's clearly the wide receiver one. Jacksonville, by the way, giving up
50:11the second most outside uh wide receiver fantasy points per game. So it's actually like a really good spot for him. And if you look at the numbers across the full season, he's wide receiver 38 in fantasy points per game,
50:22wide receiver 36 in XFP per game. And again, he's been trending up every single week. Benefits from Tyler Warren being out, Josh DS being shut down. So I saw that wide receiver 22nd. I'm like, what? And then I dug into it. I'm like,
50:36actually Keenan Allen's kind of a fun start this week. I looked at his ass and I've never done that with a man before. It's true.
50:44There it is. You you invoke the ascod. So that's so good.
50:50Uh yeah, Keenan I have to start him in a couple leagues this year or this week I should say. So hopefully hopefully
50:55you're right [laughter] because I need need some production. Uh Jonathan Taylor though.
51:01What's his wife say about this game? I'm curious. I have no idea. Did you Did you see that on Twitter? She's been like live documenting everything going on in Indie. It's kind I've watched all of her videos. They're
51:12actually kind of cool. Yeah. Nice. Yeah. [laughter] I need to implement uh WAG interviews into my pregame analysis. You know, they don't come up naturally for me and my wife always shows me.
51:24Oh, is it? Okay. Yeah. She's funny. They've she's like a fantasy wag. Oh, is she?
51:30I guess. Oh, my wife. My wife. She's Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, she is. Means wives and girlfriends. So, she watches all of our all of our shows.
51:38That's awesome. Shut up, babe. Shout out Kristen. How you doing? Oh my. Easy, Joey. Hey, Jonathan Taylor. So, he's RB5 in fantasy points per game. Uh he he's not so
51:52gamecript sensitive this year. We we talked about this in the past, most game script sensitive player in fantasy, but he's averaging 21.5 fantasy points per game in losses. That's the good news. The bad news, Jacksonville is giving up
52:04the fewest rushing fantasy points per game, the lowest yards per carry, the lowest rushing success rate to opposing running backs. The Colts just traded away future Hall of Famer Quinton Nelson and he had a season low 63% backfield
52:17XFP share. And then I also wonder Brett, what happens if they get a little call from Cincinnati at halftime and they're like, "We've seen enough.
52:29Here's your second round pick. Send him over." The seen enough part was Chase Brown, right?
52:35This guy stinks. We've seen enough. Get him out of here. You're very witty today, Brett. You're you're on point. Shout out.
52:43Shout out. Uh it's because I got some sleep last night. Oh, that's right. Yeah. I forget you're sleepd deprived every Tuesday night until start. Yeah. I had a buddy hit me up actually. He was like, "Hey, do you want to you want to
52:55run some some games tonight? Some video games." And I was like, "Heck no, I'm going to bed." Nice.
53:00Yeah. Today's show episode sponsored by sleep. Get your eight hours of sleep.
53:07I love that for us. Yeah. Uh, on the Jacksonville side, this is absolutely Exodia Parker Washington's moment. Oh, baby. Colts stink. They're a dumpster fire. Parker's just going to tee off on him.
53:20I like Brentton Strange a little bit, too. But, uh, I I think PW goes nuts here.
53:26PW, baby. Yeah, it's uh, again, it's the nine and a half point spread. And that's really been the issue for Parker Washington, who like ranks mid-range wide receiver two by fantasy points per
53:38game, XFP per game, but under a per route basis is closer to low-end wide receiver one, if not better. Um, I will
53:46say this is also like even if this wasn't just like a dead Colts team that's not trying anymore. Um, he has
53:54twice as many slot targets as anyone else on the team and he draws an extreme slot funnel matchup. The Colts uh second
54:00best right now to outside wide receivers. Easily bottom 10 against the slot. So I'm with you. I'm with you this week. I'm with you every week. Chris Wack skeptical, but uh hold on.
54:11Hey Scott, do you have any guilty pleasures? Hol notes.
54:19How's that a guilty pleasure? Holotes is awesome. Right. That's what I say. I I I have people. By the way, Brett like 99% of the music he listens to is like death
54:29metal at max volume. And then that's actually not true, by the way. And then and then some hollow notes.
54:35I do love me some death metal, but I I also am a very I have a very eclectic like I was just listening to
54:42like Basantine Orthodox himnels this morning. You know what I mean? I don't know what that is.
54:47It's like Basantine chanting. Oh, Byzantine. Byzantine. Sorry. Leave it to the philosophy major to to correct me on that one. Isn't that a religious thing or Orthodox Christian? Yeah.
54:58Okay. Byzantine. Yeah. Okay. I was listening to uh the the Beirut Choir. You know, they slap. They slap. So, anyways, today's episode brought to you by the
55:10Beirut Choir. [laughter] Um I asked you about your guilty pleasures because one of mine is uh Heartland. You ever seen the show Heartland? No.
55:21It's like it's cheesy. It's just awful. It's like everything about it is terrible, but I love the show. And occasionally my wife and I, we get we get some episodes in and we're like on season four right now out of like 20.
55:33It's so cheesy, bro. It's a horse show. It's about an equestrian farm in in Canada. But anyways, one of the main characters
55:39just married a guy named PW. And it got me thinking about Parker Washington. And PW is easily the coolest character on
55:45the show. And I think Parker Washington is gonna smash this week because of PW. Bro, the disdain I have for like the
55:52slop you consume. I am such a snoody, obnoxious elitist when it comes to television and film and Yeah, we know you've watched The Sopranos 5,000 times. I know. And it gets better every single
56:04time. You You really haven't lived and truly been able to appreciate the medium of television until you've watched Sopranos at least 50,000 times. You know why I watch a show like
56:16Heartland? Because there's enough things in life that can spike your cortisol. I just need something that's an easy watch. It's wholesome, bro. Talk about sport. I I literally cannot watch the final season of uh of
56:29Sopranos anymore. It just turns me into a rage monster where I'm just like on the phone with my mom. Where's the
56:35gobble go? What are you talking about? Like I don't know. I got to stop watching Sopranos. I got to stop. We got
56:40to Exactly. Exactly. So I I'm trying to manage my cortisol levels. You know, I'm very very intense job here. I have to do
56:46a show with you every day. [laughter] So, uh, I'm also not good for your cortisol levels.
56:52Yeah, there we go. All right, let's let's get to the last game here. Game seven, the Las Vegas Raiders taking on
56:58the New York Jets. The Jets are favorite at home. AG going to save his job with this one. One and a half point favorites. Overunders's 45.5. Scott there. I love so many Jets in this
57:11game. Really? Yeah. Brillin Allen, baby. Let's go. Play his prop. Play his ladder. I know we're calling him a sit. I think this Well, what if Breeze Hall's back? Don't care. Great. That'll drive his
57:23prop number down. What? They're not going to come back with Bree Hall in a bell call role after an injury after the way Brilland Allen's been
57:29running the football. Yeah, but then he's his his backfield XP share goes from 90% to 60%. That's That's not enough to get it done. I think against the Raiders defense, it is enough to get it done. The Raiders
57:41The Raiders defense has been really bad against running backs, dude. Yeah, really really bad. Um, worst in the league is by my numbers. Yeah, worst in the league by a lot too. And like some of the back like they they
57:53allowed Omari and Hampton to go for 90 yards. You know how hard that is? The Chargers run game sucks and they allowed
57:59Omar and Hampton to go for 90 plus yards. Yeah, Scott Brilin Allen's going to cook. I don't care if Bree Hall's on the field
58:04or not. And my take's more of a prop take, unfortunately. I know this a start sit show, but I I think you get away with
58:11get away with both of them probably. My big take though is Omar Cooper Jr.
58:18Your your what? My big take is Omar Cooper Jr. Let's hear that one. Scott, I think this is you you mentioned
58:24on the Waverwire show and I kind of laughed at you. A potential league winner. The tape on him is outrageous.
58:30Is it? It's outrageous, dude. He's got he's ran 45 routes. He's already got six explosive plays.
58:36Yeah. And and was that wasn't that like not part of his game in college? Like I I remember him as like I remember having
58:43question marks about him as a deep threat. I think No, no. I I wrote him up as having like alien like literally extraterrestrial catch. So then he's just awesome because he was
58:54an elite incredible he was an elite miss tackle force machine. The the best ever in PFF college history which goes back to 200 Yeah. Seven. and and uh usually you don't see,
59:08you know, deep ball tracking, deep speed to come with that, but you know, maybe he's a complete receiver.
59:13Yeah. I mean, in and my only real knock on him was like some route running stuff, but like he's separating. He's
59:20think he's ninth in in ass. I looked at his ass and I've never done that with a man before. It's true. Anyways, he's ninth in ass already. Um, I know it's a small sample, but dude,
59:32he's winning all over the place. And I think the thing that's most impressive, man, is they they're using him like he's
59:39the number one wide receiver. And I know that's crazy. They have Garrett Wilson Scott, but seriously, like he they're using him on these orbit motions that Tyreek Hill was getting in Miami. He's getting into his route, running full speed. They're lining them
59:50up all over the formation. They they run dagger at a really high level. They're one of the best dagger teams in the league. Do you know what a dagger is?
59:57Uh, yeah. It's like a pointy knife that Yeah. Okay. It's a dagger concept is where you have a clear out from the slot
60:03either on a a seam or a post and then you have a a dig on the back side of that coming underneath the clear out.
60:10That dig route is the money route. That's what all the top receivers in the NFL run. Jamar Chase, Puka Nakua, Ammon
60:17Ross St. Brown, uh CD Lamb, they're they're the dig guy in dagger. Well, Cooper's been the dig guy in dagger for
60:23them the last two weeks. They're running flood concept. Cooper's the the primary in the flood concept, not Garrett Wilson. It's extremely bullish for Amari C. Am I calling him Amari? Omar Cooper.
60:35It's awesome. I love the usage. He looks great on tape. Uh I think they're just going to keep rolling with this. And uh I you know, I know we can't account for that in projections, so I'm not I'm not going to ask Chris to yet, but uh I
60:49think Cooper's legit league winning potential here. Yeah. Listen, what you're saying is crazy. You're saying this this rookie who's only played two full Yeah. 45 routes run. 45 routes run is the wide receiver one of the Jets. Uh
61:03over Garrett Wilson who's like widely regarded as one of the top 15 best separators if not higher. Uh going to be
61:10one of the highest top seven highest paid wide receivers in the league is blah blah blah. He's not the wide receiver one. It's this rookie. Yeah. Who's And guess what? I kind of had this in my notes, Brad. how disappointing and
61:23underwhelming it's been for Garrett Wilson. So, if you look at the games, the the games where um Omar Cooper andor Adai Mitchell were healthy. Week one, Garrett Wilson averaged 3.76 yards per
61:38route run. Okay, guess what? Adai Mitchell averaged three. Omar Cooper averaged 30. In week two, uh Adam Mitchell 1.75, Garrett Wilson 1.4 54. And then you look
61:52um to when Omar Cooper came back uh he averaged 3.81, Garrett Wilson all the way down at 1.33 and then last week of
62:02course Omar Cooper 5.23 23 Garrett Wilson 0.96 and this bears out by XFP target share first read target share and so yeah man we on this waiver we're wire
62:14show we're like we're very bullish on he's an S regardless of cost to acquire just massively underrated league winning potential um but yeah I'm I'm willing to
62:26double down I'm willing to triple down is Garrett Wilson the new Luther Burden [laughter] just gonna get mogged every week by a different guy on his own team. Well, I mean, this is the thing is like everyone was always just like, "He just
62:37needs a quarterback. He just" And I was like, "Yeah, but he also has the toughest target competition of his career this year." It's like, "No, no,
62:43he's great. He's great." Like, really? You know, he's he's always top 10 in targets, but he's outside the top 25 in
62:50fantasy points. Like, isn't that a bit of a red flag? No, no, he's elite. He's elite. And uh and yeah, man, it's Do you
62:58know how rare it is for a rookie to have two 100 plus yard games and a touchdown?
63:03let alone two in a row, let alone the first two full games of your career. Um, six explosives on 45 routes run. That's bro, and they were all earned, by the way.
63:15These weren't like busted coverages. These were earned explosives. Here's the stat. And I didn't really articulate it as efficiently as I should
63:22have. Through the first two weeks, Adani Mitchell had more targets, more air yards than Garrett Wilson. And then Omar Cooper when on the field he averages 4.96 yards per routin. Garrett Wilson
63:331.40. Major red flags there. And guess what? Um I don't know. I'm with you.
63:40What are we starting him as? Screw Chris's projections. YKKB. IKB. I know ball. We're going off the the eye test, baby.
63:53I don't know. I I meanh [sighs] I I want to clarify something to you really quick. This isn't anti-Garrett Wilson for me by the way because I think Garrett Wilson still looks good on tape. In fact, I talked to Stephen Aor today.
64:06You know my he's my right hand basically in data and Stephen's telling me like man Cooper looks amazing. Looks incredible but they do need to get Garrett Wilson more involved. So like I do think Wilson looks good but Cooper is
64:17a special player. He's a special talent. So um where we putting where we sliding Cooper in? Uh, I'm gonna say low-end
64:26wide receiver two instead of a low-end wide receiver three. So, that's a big jump. I I think so, too. I think you're right.
64:31Hey, hey, real talk. I'm going to surprise you with something. Hey, can we go to a sponsor real quick or sponsor of today's show is Wendy's?
64:45Wendy's nuts. No, no, sorry. is is is sponsored by the official the official fantasy football daily drinking game. I just got a text two
64:58seconds ago from JP. Okay. Who decided Shout out JP who decided to make the official Fantasy Points Daily drinking game. I'm going to see if uh Trey can add it in in postprouction.
65:12Or actually, maybe I'll just send it to you now. Trey, that's like stealing a bit from Dynasty Points. What's that?
65:18They they they play a drinking game on that show. At least they have in the past. They have like a bingo card on the
65:23screen, I'm pretty sure, with all the different things. One of them was anytime someone mentions Scott Barrett's name. I'm not kidding. Oh, really? Shout out Dynasty Points, by the way. If you want some exceptional Dynasty content, go over to the Fantasy Points
65:34Dynasty YouTube channel and check out Dynasty Points. Those guys do an incredible job. Thomas Tipple, Jacob Sanderson, Lucas Patrick, the the
65:41nuclear scientist over there, whatever he is. And uh Lucas Gilbert. Lucas did I say Lucas Patrick?
65:48Lucas Patrick is an NFL Curtis Patrick Patrick too. Lucas Gilbert and then of course the Golden Boy Ryan Heath. Yeah. I just assume we we cut all this out. Oh, I was assuming we wouldn't. So,
66:01all right. This is live. I got this two seconds ago. Okay. You want to run through it?
66:08Go ahead. Go ahead. All right. Ask or ask God. One sip.
66:14Exodia. One sip. Power law. One sip. Drake Mau. One sip. Trust me, bro. One.
66:24Hydrostatic equilibrium. One sip. Motion man. Hey Trey. Jamie. Pull that up. One sip. JJ McCarthy mentioned one sip.
66:37A cooking with Brett take. One sip. Buinger or any Scott Hero? One sip.
66:43Scott's blue light blockers, one sip. Upside wins championships, two sips.
66:48That one's going to get you in trouble. A fake sponsored. Does Does this count as a fake SP? I think it does. Two sips.
66:55Scott Brett cuts bread off. Two sips. Everyone's blackout drunk already, so that's it. I know.
67:01Akin, you spelled his name right. It's Aan, but Akin Kak Manis. Oh, maybe he spelled it wrong on purpose because we always get it wrong. Aken Call Manis or Aan Kiaak Manis two sips. He should be
67:15like a secret Easter egg. 10 sips. Um Brett Victory Labs JJ two sips. A Caleb Williams argument two sips. Scott Rose Jameson Williams two sips. Or a new bet
67:29is made. Finish your drink. Dude, we're getting people wasted. We We should We should have a a a disclaimer.
67:37You know, we're not liable. Please no drinking and driving. Please uh you know drink respon this is water. We're talking about Pepsi. We're not talking about alcohol. I don't condone drinking alcohol. I
67:49don't drink alcohol myself. So drink you drink your own urine which is wild. I just just finished it actually.
67:54Yeah. You you say it it puts hair in your chest, right? That's why you do it.
68:00Yeah. That that's why I do it 100%. Yeah. So today's today's episode sponsored by uh the official Fantasy Football Daily drinking game. Someone someone put that on rash fantasy football daily.
68:16Someone someone make a subreddit for us because I'm very jealous of uh Danny Kelly Danny Hifitz their uh Ringer fantasy subreddit which is very weird and scary and hilarious and funny.
68:30What's a Reddit? I don't know what a Reddit is. Brett, see, Brett doesn't even know what a Reddit is. So, we need one of our loyal listeners to go ahead
68:35and do that for us. And uh and and yeah, let let us know how this official drinking game treats you. All right, let's tie a bow on this. We are all set with week eight start set
68:48part one, guys. Thank you so much for listening. Hopefully, you tuned in. Start sit. I thought we were Oh, Drake, I just cut you off. I thought we were We were changing this to to game previews.
68:58It is game. It's both. We still call it start sit for the SEO, man. The SEO is where it's at. So,
69:04all right, week eight, start sit part one. Hopefully, you listen to our live stream from last night and [music] you come leave us a comment about what you heard on the live stream because we're looking forward to that, guys. Thank you so much for listening.
69:15We are out. [music]
