Should We AVOID DRAFTING This First Round RB in 2026 Fantasy Football?
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
18 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 20, 2026
Published
Thu, August 20, 2026
5
Player insights
5
Players mentioned
Topics
Ashton JeantyDevin SingletaryJeremiyah LoveJonah ColemanTrent Richardson
Player analysis
Player insights
Ashton Jeanty
NegativeBust13:21
Ashton Jeanty had one of the worst rookie seasons for a running back in decades, recording 14.4 fantasy points per game despite heavy volume (266 carries, 55 receptions). He is the only player among 79 historical instances with that volume to average fewer than 15 fantasy points per game, leading to a drop in the source's rankings. His performance is compared to Trent Richardson's bust-level rookie season, and his prospect profile is viewed with caution due to high production in non-power conferences, similar to Devin Singletary.
Insight pageDevin Singletary
NegativeProjection15:16
Devin Singletary is used as a prospect comparison for Ashton Jeanty due to their shared backgrounds of high production in non-power conferences, which the source notes increases the risk of a bust.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
NegativeUsage17:08
The source references Jeremiah Love as a comparison point for coaching decisions, suggesting that the Cardinals should have recognized his talent and adjusted his usage after only a couple of carries, implying a missed opportunity for the team to evaluate him properly.
Insight pageJonah Coleman
PositiveSleeper16:43
The source identifies Jonah Coleman as a sleeper running back for the Broncos who is already working with the first-team offense. He demonstrated impressive ability during the preseason, including a standout run in week one that led Sean Payton to pull him early because he had already seen enough to be satisfied with his performance.
Insight pageTrent Richardson
NegativeBust17:01
The source compares Ashton Jeanty's disappointing rookie performance to that of Trent Richardson, highlighting the risk associated with drafting Jeanty in the first round. The source uses Trent Richardson's rookie season as a historical benchmark for a disappointing performance, citing it as a comparison for a current first-round running back who is struggling to meet expectations.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Searching for some fantasy takeaways
0:02with NFL director of analytics Ryan
0:04Paganetti. [music]
0:05This is Fantasy Football Daily with
0:07Brett and Scott. Let's dive right in.
0:18>> Ryan, how are you, sir?
0:19>> I am uh I'm doing great. You know, I'm
0:21I'm finally excited that there's real
0:23games and I don't have to talk about
0:24rain pants as much anymore. [laughter]
0:26No, a couple people were tagging me that
0:29there was like nearly a rain pants game
0:31with the the um the the the Bears were
0:34playing and there was like a significant
0:37downpour before the game and people were
0:39kind of tipping me off. They're like,
0:40"All right, we're going to have somebody
0:41looking for rain pants." But um but
0:43yeah, we can start talking about real
0:44players and, you know, preseason usage
0:46and, you know, different trends and
0:48whatnot. I'm excited about that.
0:51>> Well, the the first thing I wanted to
0:53ask you, I wanted to ask you about
0:54Ashton Genty. So, I I had you on this
0:57show and I kind of gave you grief for
0:59being,
1:01you know, director of analytics with the
1:03Las Vegas Raiders and in a year that
1:06they took a running back top 10 where
1:08that that's typically viewed as like a
1:11cardinal sin in the analytics community
1:13where, you know, hashtag running backs
1:15don't matter was a a major trend. Even
1:17though I might not entirely agree with
1:20it, I know there's certainly some truth
1:22to that. you gave a take. We ended up
1:24scrubbing it from the episode and then
1:27on on our my last episode I I was
1:30talking about how I talked to you and
1:33you kind of spooked me a little bit and
1:36I moved Ash and Genty down in my
1:38rankings. I wouldn't say why. Uh just
1:40that you kind of spooked me and so I'm
1:42wondering if there's anything you could
1:43say here on this that we can keep in the
1:47episode and and not take out.
1:49>> So you if you have to be careful, I get
1:51it. But
1:52>> yeah, so what I'd say is, so I I got
1:55offered this job to uh to report
1:58directly for Pete as an actual assistant
2:00coach. And um my kind of role there was
2:06very very heavily coaching analytics and
2:09game management based. And um they had
2:13an infrastructure there of people that
2:15were I I got there March till about a
2:17month before the draft, maybe a month
2:18and a half. And um you know I offered to
2:22kind of help these guys out in terms of
2:25because I I had just been director of
2:26football analytics for the Jaguars and
2:30um they kind of had an an infrastructure
2:32already set up there for the front
2:34office kind of analytics I guess you
2:36could say and um this is no this is no
2:39disrespect to anybody there but um I was
2:43a little bit behind the eightball in the
2:45sense that you know I I came in a little
2:48bit after Pete had already started. and
2:50there was about a million projects to
2:51deal with regarding, you know, coaching
2:53related topics and whatnot. So, um, my
2:57role really there was like serve in a
3:00sort of supplementary role in terms of
3:03some of the draft stuff. Now, I will say
3:06um, to me, you can't be like a real
3:10analytics person and actually advocate
3:12for a running back in the top 10. And
3:15like yes,
3:17occasionally it works out. Okay. Um I
3:20totally come from the world of offensive
3:23line is light years more important. And
3:27um you know I I know for example I know
3:30Jeff Stelton very well. My brother's run
3:32game coordinator in the NFL. And um you
3:34know, I've been part of a team that won
3:35the Super Bowl and we we were basically
3:39using very marginal players at times at
3:41running back, but when the line was
3:44really good, it didn't matter. And so,
3:46like, my personal take is that I would
3:48much rather, you know, like a top 10
3:51offensive line and a and a just practice
3:54a list of practice squad running backs.
3:56And I actually think that would be more
3:57fun than then as opposed to having like
3:59the 25th best offensive line and the,
4:02you know, a top 10 running back from a
4:05macro perspective. Yes, the Raiders
4:08offensive line was a disaster and I
4:11would not want to be any running back
4:12behind that line last year, but they're
4:16also, you know, there's been some
4:17different kind of
4:20viewpoints on that that it may not have
4:22been as simple as strictly the offensive
4:25line being an issue. And I'm not, trust
4:27me, I'm not discounting that. Like I, it
4:29was painful to be a part of that at
4:31times. Um but uh you know some of the
4:34metrics it was it was as about as bad as
4:36you could get from a rush offense. And
4:38this is coming from some people in terms
4:40of Pete and Chip that have been part of
4:42elite run offenses. Like they know how
4:44to scheme up a good offense. And to give
4:46you a perspective um you know I think
4:48there was probably seven times that Chip
4:51had the number one rush yard rush yards
4:54or yards per carry offense in college.
4:56And then his first year in the league
4:58with Philly, they were the number one
5:00yards per carry and rush yards offense.
5:03Um, and he did it I think at UCLA in say
5:0622 or so, maybe 21 with DTR and
5:09Charbanet. Like they were number one in
5:11yards per carry by like two standard
5:14deviations. And so he's a very creative
5:16scheme guy. We were we tried to
5:18accommodate Genty kind of being more of
5:20a downhill underenter type player. Um be
5:23and in terms of like that sort of
5:25fitting his skill set a little bit and
5:29um we actually the fourth game of the
5:32year we had a we really had a great
5:33rushing game against the Bears and a few
5:36plays before the end of the game Colton
5:38Miller had an injury. He ended up going
5:41out for the season. He was by far our
5:42best offensive lineman and we really
5:44were not the roster was not set up in a
5:46way that there was a a player to step in
5:48at tackle that could very easily
5:51no one was going to replace it but to at
5:53least like be manageable there. Um, and
5:57you know, I think at that time in that
5:58fourth week, we actually it was the
6:00highest rushing output of any team
6:03go like through four games and then
6:06after that it was just like a car
6:08accident in terms of like you know we
6:09really really struggled. The division
6:11was was pretty talented too. Um, I I
6:14think at the end of the day, um,
6:18like whenever something goes wrong in
6:20the NFL, just to sum up this viewpoint,
6:22like it's it's never as simple as just
6:26point the finger at one
6:28variable and like a lot of times there's
6:30more nuance like what are the what's the
6:32scheme? What's the what are the
6:33techniques being used? Is how is the
6:34running back reading it? You know, what
6:36um is are they just playing a lot of
6:38really talented defenses? And I guess my
6:41position is that
6:44there was a little bit more than
6:46strictly the offensive line that sort of
6:48explained that. And if you look at some
6:49of the metrics like expected rushing
6:50yards and whatnot, that attempts to kind
6:52of account for that a little bit. I
6:54think there's some questions there. And
6:56um you know I I I think it's uh I know I
7:00I especially being on social media like
7:02pretty extensively over the last month
7:04like you see how passionate the fans are
7:06and they there's almost like they just
7:08find a lightning rod to sort of attack
7:10and weaponize and clearly that the the
7:13whether it was coaching or offensive
7:15line like that those were the those were
7:17the topics for the Raiders last year and
7:19I'm not I'm not absolving anybody from
7:22any blame but that's kind of my position
7:24on that And
7:26just from just from like a summary
7:29standpoint, you see Brock Bowers at
7:31practice with the with the Raiders and
7:33you think like there's some things here
7:36where this guy might be a first bout
7:37Hall of Famer and I wasn't necessar that
7:40may have been the only player, you know,
7:42on that offense that I was seeing that
7:43from. And um that's kind of just I guess
7:46my summary of that topic.
7:48>> Yeah. Let me bring this back to fantasy.
7:50So this is, you know, partly what you've
7:52told me over the phone. Some of the
7:54other things I think we can keep under
7:55wraps, but I this this really kind of
7:58gels with how I've kind of viewed Genty
8:02from the start, which was, you know,
8:04obviously there's Well, first of all, it
8:06was like legitimately one of the worst
8:08rookie seasons ever by a running back.
8:11He Well, it was one of the worst EPA per
8:14runs we've seen in decades uh for the
8:16the unit as a whole. Um he had 266
8:20carries and 55 receptions. Obviously,
8:23volume is the most important thing with
8:25the running back position for fantasy,
8:27but like on that volume, it was one of
8:30the worst seasons ever. That's been done
8:3279 times in NFL history. Of those 79
8:35running back seasons, Jy's 2025 was the
8:39only one with fewer than 15 fantasy
8:40points per game. He was all the way down
8:42at 14.4.
8:44Um, I think there's more to it than the
8:47offensive line. And even if he wanted to
8:49blame the offensive line, it's not like
8:50this offensive line looks much better.
8:53And then it's the prospect. It's Aston
8:54Genty, the prospect. You know, he 2024
8:58he gained 2,601
9:00rushing yards. It was the second most in
9:03FBS history behind only Barry Sanders
9:06legendary 1988 season, but it came in
9:09the Mountain West. And so, you know,
9:11when I when I listed my comps for Genty,
9:15one of the top ones was Devin Singleary,
9:17who in the C USA had 56 touchdowns over
9:22his last two years. And that was
9:24something I really found with doing my
9:27analytics pro prospect modeling was
9:30like, it's not so much that you need to,
9:32you know, um, devalue production coming
9:36outside of the power conferences. It's
9:38really just that it just like massively
9:40raises your risk of busting. And so I
9:44think that's a real Yeah. Like sure he
9:47he also had the best and most missed
9:50tackles in PFF college history, but it's
9:53also like, you know, Mountain West
9:55defenders are missing tackles a lot more
9:57often than Alabama defenders, right? And
10:00so you have to factor that in as well.
10:03And so what we're left with is sure he
10:05saw a ton of volume, but he wasn't all
10:07that great with it. And uh and yes,
10:11certainly I have some concerns for a guy
10:14who is going like mid to late round one
10:18just about everywhere after like
10:20borderline Trent Richardsonesque
10:23rookie season. Um and so yeah, I I ended
10:26up moving him down two spots in my
10:28rankings. We'll see if that burns me.
10:30Certainly, I'm a big Clint Kubak
10:32believer. I think you are too, Ryan. Uh,
10:35and he has shown over the years uh, an
10:37ability to elevate the offensive line.
10:40Uh, New Orleans had a bottom three
10:42offensive line on paper. Seattle had a
10:44bottom three offensive line on paper
10:46last year, but in both instances, they
10:48fiddle finished middle of the pack in
10:50yards before contact per attempt. I
10:52wanted to get a plug in for the site.
10:54And so, I'll just I'll just reiterate
10:57what you said on Twitter a couple of
10:59weeks ago, Ryan. You said fantasy points
11:01data, which you're using to cook up some
11:03of these super dank stats and awesome
11:06tweets, uh, is better than the data
11:10provider that NFL teams paid six figures
11:12for. And this is fantasy points data you
11:15can get with a $200 a year subscription.
11:18Uh, any comments on that, Ryan? Yeah,
11:21I'd say this is like, you know, there's
11:24there's some in the league, maybe more
11:27than some, that are really turned off by
11:30the these other providers that attempt
11:33to sort of grade the tape subjectively.
11:36And um there's people that just wildly
11:40wildly disagree with what those the
11:42conclusions that are reached and the
11:44idea. And there's players that hate it.
11:45a lot of the players really hate it when
11:47they're playing on Sunday Night Football
11:48and it says that they're 67th of 88
11:50players when they're actually playing
11:52great. And um I think that that this
11:56other you know company that everyone
11:58kind of is familiar with like they they
12:01were very dismissive at concerns on the
12:03team side. Um you know whether it was in
12:05the quality of the data or like how are
12:08they classifying things like things you
12:09know and and I think um the players were
12:12you know relatively hostile about you
12:14know some of the grading methodologies.
12:16Coaches were very hostile. You know,
12:18there was times where people,
12:21you know, from this company came in and
12:23attempted to explain their grading to
12:24coaches and the coaches like left the
12:26meeting when I was part of teams and
12:28they say, I don't want to use any of
12:30their stuff like and it actually like it
12:32hurt my ability to do my job because
12:34like in in many cases like the objective
12:36data is fine like if it's like hey is it
12:38what is the offensive personnel group
12:40and whatnot but um like there's also
12:44cases where like I I you know I'm
12:45showing an offensive coordinator I'm
12:47like Hey, this uh this team is really
12:49poor against duo and they're like,
12:51"Okay, well, can you get me a cut up
12:52using that classification?" And I give
12:55them a cutup and then they call me into
12:56their office and they're like three of
12:58the first seven plays are not duo. And
13:01then it's like it's almost like
13:02embarrassing from my standpoint. So like
13:04I would use the data at times as like a
13:07initial sort of sweep and then I'd have
13:10to manually go through it and clean it
13:12up and then so like when I've used some
13:13of your guys data it it totally aligns
13:16with what like coaches actually classify
13:19some of these concepts for example with
13:21and I think that that
13:24it's it's a much more reasonable you
13:27know people don't like like like it's
13:29it's a little bit unfair but like when
13:31there's some questions regarding the
13:32data
13:33it can turn into like a zero versus 100
13:36binary thing where people just shut
13:37everything off. So, um, but I think that
13:40that just like I had no bias. There was
13:43no reason why I would particularly use
13:46like your guys data. I simply just was
13:48intrigued by the idea of another vendor
13:50sort of competing in a world where there
13:52was like kind of a monopoly. And you
13:55guys obviously have built like a
13:56significant market share in like sort of
13:58the consumer market, but it's it's been
14:00entirely like merit-based versus like
14:03this other group is essentially leaned
14:06on having just like market power and
14:09having no one to really compete with.
14:11And then, you know, I mean, there's
14:12there's it's widely been reported that
14:14there's been like issues, there's been
14:16sales and, you know, whatnot and like,
14:17you know, different moving parts and
14:19whatnot, you know, people losing jobs
14:20and things like that. But I'm the I'm
14:22just a believer in meritocracy and like
14:24if there was another company that was
14:26called uh like
14:29not fantasy points and they and their
14:30data was better than your guys like I I
14:32might you know point that out too but
14:34like I'm just I'm just from what I have
14:36experience like the stuff is awesome and
14:38it's helped me tremendously and like
14:40I'll take a look at your guys data and
14:42I'll I'll kind of cross-check it with
14:43the film that I'm looking at and like
14:45it's it's really excellent and it's it's
14:47it's really actionable and and I see
14:49what you guys are doing on on social
14:51media all the time. like you guys are
14:52turnurning out so much content that
14:55um it's really just lapping everybody
14:57that that I you know else that I see and
14:59you know you're seeing other companies
15:01basically just give up on the media part
15:02of things because they I would argue
15:04that they almost just can't compete with
15:05it because there's a lot of talent with
15:06what you guys are doing and um yeah I'd
15:10say that uh I my attitude on all this
15:14stuff is like if you want to get coaches
15:15for example to like change their
15:17behavior like your analysis has to be
15:21topnotch.
15:22And it's the most embarrassing because
15:24it's literally happened to me. The most
15:25embarrassing thing ever to like say,
15:28"Hey, we should do XYZ because of this
15:31and then here's the plays and oh, just
15:33kidding." Like that that was incorrectly
15:36classified and and then it's like, you
15:37know, it's sort of a a turnoff. So like
15:39I I literally would spend hours and
15:41hours a week cleaning up data like
15:43manually or having interns clean up data
15:45at times which I would prefer not to do
15:47that because it's like a significant
15:50life inconvenience to have to do that.
15:52So anyway like I I've just really
15:53appreciated what you guys have done. Um
15:55and uh you know I I there's there I mean
15:59it's the I didn't even know Scott. The
16:00only reason that like I ever met Scott
16:02was because I just started seeing his
16:04stats pop up on on Twitter where like
16:07he'd have points about certain players
16:08and I'm like, "Oh god, like we we better
16:10like look into this like this separation
16:12stat or XYZ because we didn't even have
16:14it." And then there would be things that
16:16were like a lot of coaches really and
16:18like personnel people, they like lists
16:19and Scott's a big list guy. So, like
16:22when the list is terrible and like
16:24you're about to like draft a player and
16:26guarantee him tens of millions of
16:27dollars or like you're about to sign a
16:28guy in free agency and there's a list
16:30out there that shows like eight of nine
16:32guys being like total bust like you you
16:35you have to in this era like you have to
16:38be on top of all that stuff. And you
16:39know I think a great example is the
16:41running back from the Broncos. You know
16:43what's it what is it Coleman?
16:45>> Jonah Coleman. Yeah.
16:46>> Yeah. And like I I didn't follow the
16:48draft too closely this year. I had some
16:50other things going on, but you know, you
16:51guys kind of picked up on him being sort
16:53of a sleeper and he's, you know, he's
16:55working with the ones. They're pulling
16:56him after the first quarter. He had a he
16:58had a sick run on in week one. I know
17:00it's just preseason, but he had one of
17:01the more impressive runs of the whole,
17:03you know, week. And then they were
17:04basically saying Shawn Peyton pulled him
17:05out. He's like, "All right, I've seen
17:06enough." Which is what the which is what
17:08the Cardinals should have done after,
17:10you know, a couple carries of Jeremiah
17:12Love. But, you know, it's super
17:13unfortunate how that played out. But um
17:16I think that just kind of goes to show
17:17you that like the people that are really
17:19digging into the data and it's high
17:21quality data and high quality like
17:22talent analyzing the data like you can
17:24sort of be ahead of the game whether
17:26it's in fantasy or even in the you know
17:28whether it's it's in like real football
17:29in the draft.
17:31>> Dude, thank you for your time. It's been
17:32a pleasure getting getting to talk to
17:34you. Also, I do owe you some things. So,
17:36I'll make sure you get that off camera
17:38here. I'll get you a delivery of goods.
17:40But, uh yeah, we just want to say thank
17:42you for coming on. And uh listeners,
17:44please go out to fantasypoints.com,
17:46check out the new website, check out the
17:48new front office tool. It is an
17:49industrychanging tool for your fantasy
17:51leagues. And with that, we will be back
17:53next time.
18:00>> [music]
