BUY or SELL? Players to Draft at Their Current ADP - Fantasy Football 2026

Alec Pierce is dealing with a foot injury and may not be fully healthy to start the season, coming back from an ankle injury. This injury context strengthens Tyler Warren's target opportunity in the Colts passing game.

Melton was part of the Packers' rotation, inserted for a handful of routes to create inefficiency in the wide receiver distribution. His role in the rotation prevented any Packer receiver from playing a full-time role and limited Watson and Reed's fantasy relevance.

Brian Thomas is cited as part of the ADP tier where Tyler Warren is currently going (around 65 overall in Underdog). The source identifies this tier—alongside Jordan Tyson and Romo Dunay—as the sweet spot for Warren's draft value.

Brock Bowers is cited as one of the three elite rookie tight end comparisons for Tyler Warren's production context, alongside Sam Leaporta. The source notes that Bowers, Leaporta, and Colston Loveland all had awesome seasons at the end of last year, which has knocked Warren down a few tiers in draft rankings despite his elite rookie production.

Early-down grinder whose goal-line role is uncertain despite career highs in touches last season. Tutin was taking goal-line work away from him even with Travis ETN on the roster, suggesting Rodriguez may not secure the full goal-line role. The source has 'little to no belief' in Rodriguez and argues that Tutin is the more proven NFL pass catcher despite Rodriguez's longer tenure; Tutin had 70 routes and 13 targets on early downs last year versus Rodriguez's career highs. However, the Jaguars backfield has top-12 expected touchdowns and rushing touchdown equity inside the 10, meaning even a split goal-line role could provide value.

Watson is positioned for his best career setup after the Packers lost Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks. The source notes Watson has been consistently one of his guys every season, but this year is special because the team should finally eliminate the obnoxious wide receiver rotation that plagued the offense under Matt LaFleur. Previously, Watson was held to under 60–70% route share due to rotational players like Wicks (40% route share), Jaden Reed, and B Melton getting snaps. Now the Packers have only Watson, Matthew Golden, and Jaden Reed—a logical three-receiver 11 personnel set that should give Watson full-time role opportunity. In 13 career games with a 75%+ route share, Watson averaged 17.5 fantasy points per game, which would have ranked WR6 last season. He is eighth-best in yards per route run from two-or-fewer receiver sets with over 3 yards per route run, and had a 96th percentile separation score on crossing routes and 88th percentile on slant routes, demonstrating efficiency beyond deep-ball threat status. Even at an 80% route share—below full-time receiver usage—Watson's usage would rank in the top 15–16 receivers in fantasy. Watson has a lower-body injury history that is cited as the primary reason for his depressed ADP at WR27, but comparable receivers at his ADP range—DeVante Adams and Mike Evans—are older and have equally lengthy or more recent lower-body injury histories, making Watson's injury concern relative rather than disqualifying. Watson underwent specialized hamstring mass study and medical intervention at University of Wisconsin before last season, resulting in improved health overall. Over the last two seasons, Watson trails only JSN and Puka Nakua in yards per route run, ranking him among the elite efficiency metrics in the NFL. Watson is going one to two full rounds later than comparable wide receivers like Terry McLaurin and Jaylen Waddle despite being a similar caliber bet, with ADP at WR26–28 despite finishing WR19 last season post-ACL injury. The source ranks Watson back-to-back with Terry McLaurin in their tiers ranking article, viewing them as very similar bets, and believes Watson should be going in the fourth round.

Complementary RB option in balanced running-back build strategy; cited as boring, reliable production to pair with a premium early-round back and a higher-upside year-two breakout like Tuton.

The source believes Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren should be in the same tier, but notes that Loveland probably has slightly more upside because of the Bears offense and the team's directional trajectory. The Colts are currently a few ticks below the Bears in implied points per game. Despite this, Warren's target opportunity is strong enough to merit similar tier placement.

Source prefers Bashel Tutin over Swift in the round 5–6 range, though acknowledges Swift as an intriguing bet in his own right.

Daniel Jones was leading the NFL in passing yards through week nine last year before injuring his fibula. This context supports the Colts passing offense upside, as the offense was working incredibly well at one point in the season, suggesting potential for higher productivity than current ADP reflects.

Adams is cited as a comparable receiver to Watson in the same ADP range. Adams goes before or around Watson despite being older and having a lengthy lower-body injury history, suggesting Watson's injury concern is relative and his ADP is not out of line with peers.

One of the highest floors of any running back at his current ADP, especially when adjusted for draft cost. Consistent producer who will reliably accumulate volume; positioned as a stabilizing force in running back builds, particularly when paired with higher-upside options like Tuton. Available one to two rounds later than Javante Williams depending on platform, offering an effectively identical profile but with better running ability even at this stage of his career. Source has been 'pounding the table' for Montgomery and views him as excellent value in the round three dead zone, offering the same profile as Javante Williams, Kairen Williams, and Travis Etienne but at a later draft position. Source has some questions about the Texans offense overall.

Chase is cited as a bellcow receiver playing 90%+ of snaps. The source uses Chase as a ceiling comparison for Watson, noting that even at 80% route share—below Chase's full-time usage—Watson would rank in the top 15–16 receivers in fantasy.

Source prefers Bashel Tutin over Price in the round 5–6 range, though acknowledges Price as an intriguing bet in his own right.

Hurts is priced at his floor despite a strong historical track record; he averaged over 21.5 fantasy points per game and finished as QB2 in every season except last year, when he finished QB7—exactly his current ADP. The source argues the fantasy community has massively overthought his offseason, overlooking that he excels from under center (8.0 adjusted net yards per attempt, QB2 EPA per drop back, QB1 fantasy points per drop back over five seasons) and ranks second among 62 qualifying QBs in EPA per drop back when targeting the middle of the field (9.8 adjusted net yards per attempt). Under new OC Shawn Manion's Shanahan/McVey-style scheme featuring more under-center play and middle-of-field throws, Hurts should return to top-two QB production while maintaining his rushing touchdown upside (still leading the NFL in designed rush attempts per game last year). He's now a sixth-to-seventh round pick, a massive discount from his historical fourth-round ADP.

Jameson Williams is cited as going in the 50s overall, marking the upper threshold where the source would be hesitant to take Tyler Warren as a tight end. If Warren is pushed into the tier where Williams is going, the source would be "a lot more hesitant" to draft him.

Source is explicitly selling on Javante Williams as a third-round running back, stating 'It's time to be a hater and I am fine being a hater on Javante Williams.' Being drafted close to his ceiling in round three with limited upside across all fantasy avenues. His 2024 target share was inflated by situation: 38% of his season targets came in four games when CeeDee Lamb missed (weeks 3–6), and his target share was cut in half when Lamb played; he fell to RB45 in games without Lamb and never hit 10% target share after Lamb returned in week seven. While he ranked top-eight in carries inside the 10-yard line on a strong Cowboys offense, he averaged only 15.3 fantasy points per game (low-end RB1). He lacks elite metrics in yards after contact, explosive run rate, and big-play production. Average pass-catcher not meaningfully better than Quincy Judkins or Derrick Henry. Source concludes: 'I am out on Javvante Williams,' citing him as an example of the running back dead zone—lower-upside profiles drafted in rounds 3–4 out of desperation.

Daniels is positioned as a key catalyst for Terry McLaurin's upside. Two years ago in his rookie year, Daniels and McLaurin had one of the best QB-WR connections in football, with McLaurin posting WR16 fantasy points per game. Last year, Daniels suffered 15 different types of injuries, which disrupted the connection. Coming back fully healthy, Daniels demonstrated prolific passing ability and elite accuracy in his rookie season, which should support McLaurin's target volume and efficiency going forward.

Reed was limited to 1.5% of two-receiver set snaps compared to Watson's 62%, indicating Watson is the clear lead receiver in the Packers' simplified three-receiver set. Reed was previously held to sub-full-time route share due to the team's rotation and was not fantasy relevant as a result.

Waddle is cited as a comparable wide receiver to Watson in terms of draft tier and bet quality. Watson is going one to two full rounds later than Waddle despite being a similar caliber prospect, making Watson undervalued relative to this peer group.

Jordan Tyson is cited as part of the ADP tier where Tyler Warren is currently going (around 65 overall in Underdog). The source identifies this tier—alongside Brian Thomas and Romo Dunay—as the sweet spot for Warren's draft value.

Josh Jacobs presents a very similar bet to Javante Williams and should be going ahead of Williams in draft order, according to the source. However, Jacobs is hampered by potential suspension risk looming from off-field transgressions potentially occurring this offseason. The source notes Jacobs should be going ahead of Williams if not for the suspension risk, positioning him as slightly overpriced at ADP around 33–35 overall.

Michael Pitman is no longer with the Colts after leading the team with 111 targets last year (one fewer than Tyler Warren's 112). His departure creates a 23% vacated target share that Warren and other Colts receivers are positioned to inherit.

Evans is cited as a comparable receiver to Watson in the same ADP range. Evans goes before or around Watson despite being older and having a lengthy lower-body injury history, suggesting Watson's injury concern is relative and his ADP is not out of line with peers.

Doubs is departing the Packers. Although he led the team in routes run, the source notes he was not efficient enough to capitalize on his opportunity to matter much in fantasy, making his departure less impactful than Wicks' in terms of opening opportunity for Watson.

Sam Leaporta is cited as one of the three elite rookie tight end comparisons for Tyler Warren's production context, alongside Brock Bowers. The source notes that Leaporta and other top rookie tight ends had awesome seasons at the end of last year, which has knocked Warren down a few tiers in draft rankings despite his elite rookie production.

McLaurin is positioned as one of the best buys in the fourth round at his current ADP, which is very close to David Montgomery's. The source is 'buying all the Terry McLaurin' they can get this season, citing multiple factors: (1) he has the least amount of target competition he's ever had; (2) two years ago in Jaden Daniels' rookie year, McLaurin was WR16 by fantasy points per game with one of the best QB-WR connections in football; (3) last year he suffered severe injury luck (quad injury that he couldn't get right, then reinjured mid-season) while Daniels dealt with 15 different types of injuries; (4) his catchable throw rate dropped from 83% two years ago to 74% last year, but the source expects regression to the mean; (5) with Jaden Daniels coming back fully healthy and the Washington offense likely needing to throw more due to team weakness, McLaurin has WR1 upside; (6) he has been the clear lead target, accumulating 115-135 targets throughout his career. The source views this as a situation where McLaurin could have a career year. He is cited as a comparable wide receiver to Watson in terms of draft tier and bet quality, with Watson going one to two full rounds later despite being a similar caliber prospect.

The source is planting a big flag on Tyler Warren, projecting him ahead of Colston Loveland—a contrarian stance across the industry. Warren is going in the 60s overall (65 in Underdog) but should be going in the mid-50s as a fifth-round pick; the source calls this "a really really strong price for him." Warren became just the ninth rookie tight end all time to average 11+ PPR points per game and eighth all time with 48 receiving yards per game. He led the Colts with 112 targets last year (one more than Michael Pitman's 111), and with Pitman now gone, the Colts are vacating 23% of their target share. Alec Pierce is dealing with a foot injury and may not be fully healthy to start the season, further strengthening Warren's opportunity. Warren is described as a versatile player capable of dump-and-run YAC catches and also a strong route runner with excellent separation up the middle.