The Anatomy of a 2026 Fantasy Football League Winner
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 3, 2026
Published
Mon, August 3, 2026
20
Player insights
20
Players mentioned
Topics
Amon-Ra St. BrownBlake CorumChase BrownChristian McCaffreyD'Andre SwiftDe'Von AchaneDerrick HenryGeorge PickensJ.K. DobbinsJa'Marr ChaseJavonte WilliamsJoe BurrowJonathan TaylorJosh Allen
Player analysis
Player insights
Amon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveValue15:06
Amon-Ra St. Brown is suggested as a viable target for managers opting to draft a wide receiver in the middle of the first round.
Insight pageBlake Corum
NegativeUsage35:18
Blake Corum represents a legitimate threat to Kyren Williams' workload, specifically in the goal-line area. Last season, Corum split carries with Williams 52% to 38% inside the five-yard line, signaling a significant erosion of Williams' previous monopoly on high-value touches.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveValue13:28
Chase Brown is a preferred round two running back target who often slips into early round three on home league sites. He offers an amazing goal-line and pass-catching profile on one of the league's best offenses, with coaching staff comments indicating he is a primary focal point for touches alongside Ja'Marr Chase.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
PositiveProjection20:14
Christian McCaffrey is the most valuable player in fantasy football due to his elite, scarce production. His positional advantage is unmatched, and his value remains supreme regardless of whether he scores 22 points in PPR or 20.5 in half-PPR formats.
Insight pageD'Andre Swift
PositiveValue37:26
D'Andre Swift is a superior value alternative to running backs drafted in the third and fourth rounds. He is a target for managers looking to bet on a high-end touchdown outcome within an offense that is generating significant excitement.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeBust33:38
De'Von Achane is categorized as a 'theoretically safe' player who fails to provide the overwhelming ceiling outcomes necessary to justify his mid-to-late third-round ADP. He is considered part of the 'dead zone' of running backs who are not actually safer or higher-upside than players drafted several rounds later.
Insight pageDerrick Henry
NegativeProjection15:41
Derrick Henry's fantasy ceiling is consistent across PPR and half-PPR formats, relying on touchdown efficiency and Ravens' offensive dominance rather than pass-catching volume. He is a benchmark for high-end, multi-touchdown weekly upside and has the potential to slip into the third round on platforms like Sleeper, where his ADP is currently 24-25 overall.
Insight pageGeorge Pickens
PositiveValue58:38
George Pickens is highlighted as a prime example of a team wide receiver two in an offense capable of supporting multiple fantasy-relevant receivers; the source advises managers to target these players rather than overvaluing a team's perceived 'wide receiver one'. Pickens is also cited as a successful example of a high-volume passing offense outcome from last season.
Insight pageJ.K. Dobbins
PositiveValue37:34
J.K. Dobbins is a value-based alternative to running backs going in the third and fourth rounds. He serves as the nominal starter for an offense capable of creating explosive plays, offering a similar profile to earlier-drafted backs at a much lower cost.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
NegativeUsage40:07
Ja'Marr Chase serves as the primary target competition for Tee Higgins in the Bengals' passing offense; however, the source notes that the overall volume in the offense is sufficient to support both players and fuel a productive season for Higgins.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
NegativeBust33:33
Javonte Williams is a 'dead zone' running back who lacks the high-end ceiling required for a league-winning pick. Despite a valuable goal-line role and top-10 carry share inside the five-yard line, his ceiling is capped as a low-end RB1. Because he already achieved that role last year without providing league-winning upside, he is considered a wasted pick at his mid-to-late third-round ADP.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
PositiveProjection15:12
Joe Burrow's health is a primary driver of Bengals offensive production. When he is active, Chase Brown has performed as a top-five running back in both PPG and expected PPG, and Tee Higgins has averaged over 17 PPR points per game, consistently performing as a top-eight fantasy wide receiver.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
PositiveValue5:22
Jonathan Taylor is a proven league-winning asset, having been a successful middle-of-the-second-round pick last year who appeared on over 55% of ESPN playoff rosters. He was a key component of a dominant early-round draft strategy alongside Puka Nacua.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveValue27:37
Josh Allen is identified as one of the rare players drafted in the third round over the last two years who has performed as a league-winning asset.
Insight pageKyren Williams
NegativeBust15:58
Kyren Williams is considered one of the most overvalued players in recent fantasy history. His goal-line monopoly has vanished, with Blake Corum taking a 38% share of carries inside the five-yard line last season. Additionally, he lacks receiving upside due to Sean McVay's scheme, which has ranked 31st, 31st, and 32nd in RB receptions over the last three years.
Insight pageLuther Burden
NegativeUsage69:07
Luther Burden is part of an ambiguous Chicago Bears receiving corps where the lack of a clear target leader creates value for drafters, as the uncertainty keeps their draft costs lower than if they were clear-cut options.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveValue30:10
Puka Nacua is cited as a key component of a successful early-round draft strategy from the previous season, serving as a model for high-impact early picks.
Insight pageRome Odunze
NegativeUsage69:09
Rome Odunze is part of the Chicago Bears' ambiguous receiving group; the source argues that the uncertainty regarding who will lead the team in targets makes these players attractive targets for their league-winning upside.
Insight pageTee Higgins
PositiveValue39:08
Tee Higgins is significantly undervalued at his current ADP of WR15-16. He has consistently performed as a top-eight fantasy wide receiver on a per-game basis when Joe Burrow is healthy, averaging over 17 PPR points per game over the last two seasons. This production outperforms many running backs drafted in the third round, making him a priority target in offenses that can support multiple fantasy-relevant receivers.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveValue27:37
Trey McBride is identified as one of the rare players drafted in the third round over the last two years who has performed as a league-winning asset.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:13Yo, what is going on? It is Fantasy Football Daily, guys. I am so hyped for this episode. We have an awesome episode
0:20lined up for you guys today. We are going to be building the anatomy of a league winner with our guy Ryan Heath.
0:26He just dropped his excellent Magnum Opus style article last week. We're going to be going through position, going through strategy, everything that
0:35you need to get dialed in on your fantasy drafts this week. Chat, what's going on? See you guys firing off already. Good morning. Good morning,
0:44Ryan. What's going on, man? This this uh this article is only 86 minutes to read on fantasypoints.com. It literally it seriously is, guys. It's like a PhD in
0:52fantasy football. Uh it's not just a draft guide. It really is just like there's so many small little takeaways that you'll read in the article to get
1:00smarter. Ryan, uh we'll go through like just kind of broad strokes of the article and just kind of like some of
1:05the bigger discussion points that I pulled out for this pod, but uh are your fingers tired yet from typing? Uh I'm
1:12sure I'm sure you got a little tired from writing this article.
1:16>> Yeah, man. I the fingers are fine. The fingers are used to the typing. Uh definitely the the mental was a little
1:23bit tired uh by the end of this, but I I had a fun weekend. We recovered. I'm back. I'm ready to talk every single
1:30angle of this. So pumped for football.
1:33Let's do it, man. Yeah. Anatomy of the league winner. Uh you see it up on the screen right here. Uh very very sexy
1:40article graphic with Jensy is the anatomy. Uh we'll be walking through Ryan's article today, going through kind of some of the more important pieces of
1:48information that we pulled up for this article. Uh new site is live. Real quick before we get going, the new site looks
1:56fantastic. Our guy Brock, the the developer here at Fantasy Points, he spent about a year getting the new site ready. Uh we'll be walking through the
2:04new site uh today going through the article. Uh as you can tell, we finally have dark mode. We finally have the dark
2:10mode up on the site. Uh, looks fantastic. And if you have not already subscribed to read Ryan's article, to read Scott Barrett's draft guide, which
2:19just dropped a few moments ago, literally a couple hours ago, you can subscribe now using code fantasy, one word fantasy. Get yourself 10% off any
2:28subscription at fantasypoints.com. Get in, read Ryan's article, Scott's article. I got a superflex draft guide dropping here very soon. John's draft
2:35guides up. It is go time here at fantasypoints.com.
2:41Ryan is an overachiever pebbud. That is right. Let's get into the anatomy of a league winner. And I figured we got to
2:46get started at the most important position in fantasy. Ryan, it's running back. You noted in your article. You put some data behind just how more much more
2:54important running back is than any position in fantasy football. This is something that we've all been saying here at Fantasy Points for years. We've
3:01never really been zero RB bros here. At the very minimum, we go here running back and try to get one solid running
3:07back in the first couple rounds. We know that you have to build around running back foundationally to win in fantasy football. That has been especially true
3:15the last two years in particular. The second round has yielded just some massive league winners. Two years ago it was Saquon Barkley. Last year it was
3:22Jonathan Taylor going in that kind of middle of the second round pocket. So running back, let's talk through that.
3:27Let's talk through the most important position fantasy. You put the data behind it, Ryan. just how much more important is running back than receiver
3:35and just how much more does it help your ceiling in terms of value in your fantasy rosters?
3:41Yeah. So, I should say first is setup.
3:44Uh, anytime I say the word league winner when I'm talking about this article or when I just anytime I say the word
3:50league winner, uh, I'm talking very specifically about players that were on an ESPN playoff roster in over 55% of
4:00ESPN leagues. This is data that ESPN releases every year. It's just kind of what I use to get an idea of who were
4:06the players that were actually dragging teams to the fantasy football playoffs, right? It's actual results. This is just how I define a league winner over 55%.
4:17There's a handful of them every year.
4:19These are the guys that matter by far the most uh in fantasy football. So, yeah, to get to your question, how
4:26important is the running back position?
4:29One way to kind of look at that is what overall share of the league winners come from the running back position. Uh, and
4:37it's the highest share out of any single position. 38.7% of league winners since 2017 have been running backs. That's more than any
4:46other position, more than wide receivers. Uh, about 30% more than wide receivers. So, I say running backs are about 1.3 times as valuable as
4:56receivers. uh and all of those positions, running back, wide receiver, uh roughly 3x as valuable as quarterbacks and tight ends. Uh I have a
5:08few other kind of approaches to answer that question, just how valuable are running backs relative to everybody else. In the article, we can use value
5:16over replacement, just seeing how much a top three running back has outscored a bottom three starter at the position on average over each of the past several
5:26years. Uh, and that is just much higher if you run that for top three versus bottom three starter running backs uh
5:34versus any other position, right? So, that's another way we can see, okay, running backs clearly at the top, they're giving you the most value over
5:42replacement. Uh, and yeah, just kind of every single season, running backs are among the top of the league winning charts in terms of how many of these
5:52league winners are at that position. So, it it's just overall very very important to hit on your running backs. Uh, and I
5:59guess like the the biggest thing to understand is that most of these league winning running backs come from the early rounds from rounds one through
6:07four. It's been kind of kicked in round five, round six more recently. So really those top four to top six rounds, you
6:14want to make sure that you are setting yourself up to select those league winners at the running back position.
6:20And you kind of have to plan your entire draft strategy around that.
6:25I agree. And this season in particular, Ryan, we're seeing running back get compressed upwards. We'll talk a little bit more about that in just a moment.
6:33When you're walking through Ryan's article and you're reading Ryan's article, like he mentioned at the top, he's he's doing it through the lens of
6:40ESPN league winners. And just to kind of lay of the land here on ESPN, it's two running backs, two receivers, one flex,
6:46one quarterback, and one tight end.
6:47That's your your kind of standard typical league build in ESPN. I got to ask you, Ryan, as a followup, does does
6:54your opinion change in three wide receiver formats? Do receivers become a little more valuable? I know this is more theoretical here. It's not
7:02necessarily something you address totally in your article, but in most league formats, you know, you are going to start two running backs and two
7:08receivers, but I'm I'm curious, theoretically, does that change for you when you have to start three receivers?
7:14Uh, it actually does. Yes. Um, when you introduce a third wide receiver to the starting lineup, uh, what we see, and I
7:23don't know if producer Trey is going to be able to find this, it's down in the tight end uh, strategy section. Uh
7:28there's a tweet showing wins above replacement for each position. Uh good good luck producer Trey. Hopefully you'll get to that at at some point.
7:36Click into the tweet. Um and yeah, there's a a link showing three wide receiver leagues and how it changes. But basically what happens is when you add a
7:44third wide receiver, the points that you get from the wide receiver spot become just as valuable in terms of actually turning into wins. I have it graphed out
7:54for each position where 15 to 20 fantasy points from a running back is literally worth more than 15 to 20 fantasy points
8:02from a wide receiver in terms of turning into actual wins if you only have two wide receivers in the lineup. But that
8:10entire line for the wide receivers, it's that green line shifts up to where that red and purple line are for running
8:16backs if you add a third wide receiver to the mix. So the short answer is yes.
8:21uh in a three wide receiver league, the wide receiver position does become more important inherently. Uh it's can be a little bit hard to balance that. I think
8:33it's while it's true that yes, that therefore wide receivers are more important, maybe you want to draft them a little bit earlier and certainly my
8:40rankings uh will shift upward accordingly on the whole wide receiver position for that format. Uh what also kind of happens is there's you don't
8:50always see like a big increase in where people are drafting the wide receivers in in leagues like that is what I've
8:55noticed. Uh like unless your platform is shifting up the ADPs which is not generally the case. Uh they the wide receivers kind of just go where the wide
9:05receivers go where like where the default ADP list has them. So so yes to some extent they're more important.
9:11their better values at different points in your draft to actually click the wide receivers. Uh but you're not always actually going to need to draft them
9:19earlier, right? I think a big point this year for me at least is there is just a ton of wide receiver value in the middle
9:27rounds this year, like rounds three through round six or seven is just an amazing wide receiver spot this year.
9:35Uh, and I think even in those three wide receiver leagues, I don't want to super move away from my like get my running
9:42backs kind of early strategy just because I still think that's where the value is at the wide receiver position.
9:48Uh, is like once we get into what I'm calling like the return of the running back dead zone this year. That's when I
9:54just want to start hammering wide receivers kind of regardless of whether it's a two wide receiver or a three wide receiver format. To Ryan's point, we're
10:02seeing, you know, receiver basically get pushed all into rounds three, four, five, and six this year just because running back is getting compressed
10:10upwards. And to his point, if you are in a league where you have to start three wide receivers, yeah, I mean, you're
10:15probably going to get some insane values, you know, just kind of using the default ADP on some of these sites.
10:21Ryan, another another lens I got to ask you about is, you know, most of us play in PPR leagues. We play in a ton of PPR,
10:28full point per reception leagues. But one thing we've noticed with running back scoring in regards to receiver scoring, just kind of like talking about
10:34the inner positional values, is when you introduce half PPR, it makes the running backs more valuable. Running backs on average are scoring about two and a half
10:44two to two and a half more points per game in half PPR uh among top 100 scorers over the last couple years where
10:50it's like about a point to a point and a half in PPR. In theory, Ryan, does this make the running backs even more
10:56valuable in half PPR leagues?
10:59>> Yeah, it does. Uh, short short answer, yes, it makes them more valuable. I running back compared to wide receiver is more important in half PPR. I will
11:10say I think people overrate the degree to which PPR versus half PPR matters for like the archetype of a running back or
11:19of a wide receiver. Uh like Derrick Henry in a PPR versus a half PPR league is not ultimately that different to me.
11:27Uh the projection might be different, but like the the ceiling bet of how does a Derrick Henry as a like non-P
11:34passcatching running back hit a ceiling is not really that different in a PPR league versus a half PPR league. The way
11:40he does it is by incredible touchdown efficiency, the Ravens bowling everybody over, right? Like the thesis for an individual player rarely changes. Uh but
11:50yes, there at that point, of course, you sh need to shift running backs a little bit ahead of wide receivers in rankings
11:57just to make that adjustment.
11:59>> Yeah, makes sense. I mean, for full PPR, it really does just kind of like increase the viability of receivers, but
12:07to Ryan's point, it it doesn't necessarily uh increase the ceiling of those players. Running back is still by far the more scarce position. And when
12:14you have a running back like Christian McCaffrey putting up 22 PPR points per game, it doesn't really matter if it's 22 in PPR or 20.5 and half PPR, he's
12:23still, you know, by far the most valuable player in fantasy when he's putting up that level of production at the position. Let's talk more about the
12:30running back market, Ryan. It is compressed upwards this year. Like I've been saying, we've been saying this for a number of shows. You know, this this
12:36year in particular just looks incredible from rounds three through five, 3 through six at receiver. But let's get into kind of the nitty-gritty of the
12:43running back market. Uh, this year, round two just feels like a a pocket where you've got to you've got to be
12:51right. I think I think in this this year there's less margin for error in round two than ever. We talked a lot about
12:58ranking out the running back tiers last week. So, go back and listen to that show. Ryan and I went back and and went
13:04through all that last week. went through the tiers of of each player in the round two pocket. In your opinion, Ryan, after
13:12all your research, you put it all together. Which round two running back is the best bet this year? As you can
13:17see on your screen right now, you can see the the biggest league winners have typically come from rounds one and two
13:22when we're talking about running backs.
13:24So, Ryan, who's your favorite bet in that round two pocket right now?
13:28>> Um, sure. So, if I'm kind of ignoring guys that typically go on like the turn, uh if I'm just like looking at solidly a
13:37round two running back, uh Chase Brown really is the guy that I gravitate toward the most. Uh and he goes toward
13:44the end of round two or even into early round three on some of these home league sites uh by ESPN ADP. So, that that's
13:51like an amazing click for me every single time uh in round two on most of these sites. To me, Brown is just what
14:00you're getting such an amazing goal line and pass catching profile out of him on one of the league's best offenses where
14:09his quarterback uh in the over the last week or so continually just keeps telling us, "Yeah, Chase Brown is our Velcro. We want him on the field all the
14:18time. He's like a close second behind Jamar Chase in terms of wanting to get the ball in his hands and let him be
14:24explosive and do amazing things." So, yeah, to me, Chase Brown is just like my kind of go-to bread and butter round two
14:32running back. Uh, anytime that Joe Burrow has been on the field, Brown has been a top five running back by fantasy
14:39points per game, by expected fantasy points per game. You can nitpick around like the rushing efficiency. Uh, I've kind of gone back and forth on a lot of
14:48those arguments that we talked about in last week's show. So, I I won't expand more here. Um, but yeah, you guys can go
14:54check that out. uh that show that we did last week on this channel uh for our kind of round two running back thoughts.
15:01>> Yeah, Chase Brown's one of the best foundational picks in the second round.
15:04I think if you go receiver in the middle of the first round, maybe you take Aman Ross Brown or you take Jackson Smith and
15:10Jeb, but you come back middle of the second round, you're going to feel really good with Chase Brown as your RB1. I think really the only quibble I
15:17have with Brown at this point, Ryan, to your point, we've talked a lot about him this off season, is just the touchdown
15:22upside, right? like Bengals have been very very pass heavy but you know if if this offense is fully healthy, Joe Baro
15:28stays fully healthy and he throws 40 touchdowns this year, Brown probably is going to be the recipient of a lot of a
15:34lot of big spike scoring weeks regardless if he if you know even if he doesn't maybe have multi-touchdown upside every week like Derk Henry or
15:41Christian McCaffrey maybe does like we've been talking about running back is being pushed up into the second round which means that some of these bets that
15:48we're making in the third and fourth round are a little more unstable.
15:52There's a few players that have been pushed into the third round this year that have, in my opinion, a pretty shaky
15:58profile. Ryan, you go through in your article and you talk about something called Kairen Williams derangement syndrome. And I think it's it's a just
16:05kind of the perfect uh encapsulation of some of these profiles in the third round where it's like we've got a, you
16:11know, pretty decent volume back on a good offense, but there's some severe restrictions and maybe a cap on a couple of these players upside. Let's talk
16:21through some of the more unstable bets in the third and fourth round in this season. Who are these players when how
16:27are you identifying these players? You do a good job of kind of bucketing out the the volume based on, you know,
16:33either like are they full-blown bell cows? Are they more workhorse players?
16:38What one can we do to kind of identify some of these profiles? And then let's talk through the Kairen Williams derangement syndrome.
16:45>> Yeah. So, what I did to kind of bucket out every running back is I I just look at how much of their workload is
16:53dependent upon receiving because classically we think of receiving in PPR leagues as incredibly important for a running back, right? A target is worth
17:03two and a half times that of a carry in terms of the fantasy points it actually turns into. in that format, it raises
17:10the floor and raises the ceiling of any running back that has a good passing down role, a high target share, right?
17:17And drafters are very much aware of that. And what I found when I kind of bucketed out all of those archetypes,
17:24the heavy pass catchers, the guys kind of in the middle, the workh horses, uh, and the non-pass catchers, is that you
17:32can get ceiling outcomes from the guys on either extreme, right? The elite pass catchers and the non-pass catchers both against ADP have had strong ceiling
17:43outcomes over the past five seasons. And I think that's because of yes, pass catchers inherently have a lot of upside. the non-p pass catchers get
17:51punished by ADP because people I think perceive yes these guys are a little bit riskier if their teams uh are are not
17:59very good if they're game script sensitive if their quarterback gets injured if the defense takes a step back and they're negative game scripts these
18:07non-p pass catchers are legitimately risky right but they can still hit upside if everything goes well for their team right so that that's like kind of
18:16the dynamic at play right where we're getting these high ceiling outcomes from both ends of the spectrum. But the guys in the middle who a are not these really
18:27the highest end elite pass catchers, but they catch some passes or at least enough passes for ADP to not kind of
18:35punish them as non-P pass catchers as like unsafe volatile picks. Those have actually been the players where we've seen the worst outcomes the past five
18:44seasons against ADP, right? They're the ones that aren't hitting these big ceiling outcomes. And it's because you are paying for a like just a safety
18:53premium. And I talk about a lot in the intro that the point of fantasy football it a game where it's a 10 or a 12 team
19:02league. Only one of them wins, maybe two of them get payouts. You want to be drafting for upside. You want to win
19:08your league. Uh coming in third place where there's no pay payout is the same as coming in 12th place. you're incentivized to shoot for ceiling at
19:17every single point in your draft. So, the last thing you want to be doing is spending a premium pick, like top three,
19:24four, five rounds on a guy that's only safe, a guy that doesn't have the high-end upside. And what I found this
19:32year is that that profile clusters a lot in these guys that are neither the elite pass catchers nor the non-pass catchers.
19:41The guys in the middle that everyone thinks are stable and safe. And I think for a lot of them, you can specifically
19:47argue, no, these guys aren't actually stable and safe. We we are kidding ourselves. Uh and for me, that starts in basically like the middle of round
19:56three, kind of going into round four. uh where there are just a lot of these running backs that people kind of see
20:03and say, "Well, they're the lead back.
20:06Uh they caught some passes. That's good enough for me. Let's turn the let's turn the brain off now." Uh and that to me
20:13describes the ADP of Javvante Williams.
20:16That describes the ADP of Kairen Williams. That describes the ADP of Travis Achin. All of these guys to me are
20:26theoretically safe. theoretically high floor. They have the skill sets to be used on all three downs or two and a half downs. Uh but they are not guys
20:36that can give you these overwhelming ceiling outcomes above and be far above and beyond where they're being drafted in the mid to late third round, right?
20:45Just with a Javvante, with a Kairen, these guys were on top five offenses last year. These guys had one of the
20:54five best goal line roles of any running back in football last year on some of the best offenses. They were both top
21:00five in carries inside the 5yd line. Uh and both of them saw major like cuts into their uh in at least for Javvante
21:11his receiving role at the end of the year for Kairen uh his rushing role at the end of the year from a Blake
21:18Cororum. right there. There are like legitimate workload concerns for these backs where I think they're a little bit more fragile than the guys were taking
21:25in round one and round two, like the superstars that should just get every touch, at least like within their role, within their archetype. That is not the
21:35case for a Kairen Williams, for a Javvante Williams, for a Travis Han. Uh, I give like specifics on each of these
21:43guys like kind of in depth in the article of why I'm like not buying any of them as like actually safe pieces. To
21:51me, they're just the dead zone. These are the wasted picks. They are not actually any more safe for any higher upside than a lot of the running backs
21:59going in rounds four, round five, round six. Uh, like if if you want to bet on a high-end uh touchdown outcome, how about
22:06DeAndre Swift on the Bears on an offense everyone's super excited about, uh, if you want to bet on a guy that's just the
22:14nominal starter for a team that can create explosive plays, why not JK Dobbins? Uh, even several more rounds later, right? Like the these profiles
22:23just aren't that different to me and the cost is very, very different. Uh, so I am very much leaning toward like kind of
22:31waiting it out at the running back position like once you get into that kind of mid to late round three range. I
22:37just think none of the profiles are are actually that different from each other if you were to wait multiple rounds later.
22:43>> Kairen Williams is one of the most overvalued players I've seen in fantasy in recent years. And it really is like
22:49last year he was a semi- low advance rate player. like he probably didn't totally burn you, but he definitely didn't help your team. To Ryan's, you
22:55know, kind of going by Ryan's guidelines of of a league winner, he wasn't even close to that. His strangle hold on goal
23:01line work, Ryan, is just completely gone. Last year, he split carries with Corm 52 to 38% inside the five. And this
23:08is an offense, Ryan, that just does not throw to running back. Shawn McVey is just not one to ever design plays to his
23:14running backs. The Rams rank 31st, 31st, and 32nd in running back receptions over the last three seasons. I mean, they just don't they don't throw it to their
23:22backs. Uh, I'm fully with you on Kiran.
23:24I do need to push back just a little bit on Javvante. I think he still has a super valuable goal line role. To your
23:31point, yeah, there's probably not a whole lot of passing down upside, but do we really think like Jaden Blue or anybody else on this roster is like
23:37cutting into his share of carries inside the five? I mean, he was top 10 in carry share inside the five, top seven in
23:43expected rushing touchdowns last season.
23:46Uh, he does go like the 34 turn. Kairen is going solidly in the middle of the third round in pretty much every every
23:52platform you look at. But Javvante to me like, yeah, he probably doesn't have like the huge upside. Maybe he is just
23:58one of these average bell cows that you're talking about, but I still think there's a little bit of like touchdown upside with this uh with Javvante and
24:04especially attached to this Cowboys offense.
24:07I agree there's touchdown upside, but it's not above and beyond what he did last year and what is currently priced in. Uh this goes to a question in chat
24:16as well saying like why are we talking about these guys like they had bad seasons last year. They did not. But
24:21they were also not drafted in the third round last year. The issue with a Javvante Williams for me is he already
24:28had that hyper valuable goal line role.
24:30He was already on one of the most valuable offenses in the NFL. And the result is he scored like 15 and a half
24:37fantasy points per game in PPR leagues.
24:39He was a low-end RB1. If that is the absolute ceiling, I'm just not interested in you in round three. I would rather take a wide receiver that
24:49can be a high-end wide receiver one. And I think there are several of those in round three, in round four, several of
24:55those profiles that can make that leap uh above and beyond what a low-end RB1 is going to give you. And furthermore, I
25:03think there are profiles in rounds five, round six that have that kind of low-endish RB1 upside. Maybe it's not as sure of a thing as it is with Javvante
25:14Williams, but you can kind of arrange your draft such that you're getting the legitimate high-end RB ones in the first couple rounds. You're getting the shots
25:24at the high-end wide receiver ones or the low-end wide receiver ones in rounds three, four, five, and then you can still come back and find upside picks to
25:32get to like that fringe top 12 potential range at the running back position in rounds five and round six. To me, if
25:40you're drafting a Javvante Williams, a Kairen Williams, where the expectation is, yeah, they are locked into this workload last year that gave them a
25:49low-end RB1 season, but there's no real argument you can make in terms of how this improves, then that's just a wasted
25:56pick to me. I want to be constantly shooting for the upside outcome on basically every single pick that I make.
26:04Uh, I understand you're not going to hit on every single one of those picks, but you hit on enough of them, you can
26:11supplement your floor through the waiver wire, uh, through kind of the win small picks that you can pick up throughout your draft in the late rounds. And
26:20that's how you build a championship winning team. To me, that that's ultimately what it is. If you're ever having to argue for a player like the
26:29maybe the ceiling's not there, but I like I know the floor is and I'm drafting him in the third round. I'm
26:34just not interested. That that's my kind of entire philosophy on fantasy football and that's like what's behind these takes that I'm giving in terms of the
26:42new running back dead zone. Yeah. The third round, you know, you look at Ryan's data in the article, the players that were drafted in each round. The
26:50third round has been complet like kind of a wasteland for receivers. Running backs have completely destroyed them in the third round. quarterbacks and tight
26:57ends. It's really just been Josh Allen and Trey McBride in particular in the last two years drafted in the third round that have been leaguewinning type
27:03players over the last few seasons. But let's get into that round. I I do think it's an interesting kind of decision
27:08point for this year because the running back market has been pushed from, you know, what you know, a few of these
27:14players, you know, like maybe Chase Brown in years past, Chase Brown last year was going in the third round. Uh there's, you know, potential for Derrick
27:21Henry to slip into the third round on Sleeper. He's going at like 24 25 overall. In general, there's just very few like solid profiles going in the
27:30third round this year. Is there a chance, Ryan, that we're we see kind of a reversal of the trend this year?
27:35Receiver like really takes a step forward in this third round just because so many running backs are getting pushed into the second. I honestly think so.
27:43Yeah. And this is a point I brought up very early in the article, which is that you from year to year, it's very
27:50tempting to overfocus on the individual hit rates that we have on the screen right now for any particular round at any particular position. Uh I made this
28:00mistake last year where a a year ago the hit rates were slightly better at wide receiver in round one. So I was floating
28:07around out there saying, "Oh yeah, let's only do hero running back." like you actually had to get your wide receivers in rounds one and round two. That's not
28:14true. In every subsequent season, the market reacts every year. Uh better profiles get pushed up or pushed down the draft board at different positions
28:24based on last year's results. What we have really seen this year is yeah, running backs have been pushed up into rounds one and two. the most desirable
28:32profiles are going in rounds one and two and a lot of the most desirable wide receiver profiles are getting pushed down the board. Many of them yeah into
28:41round three into round four. So I think it while this data on screen is really cool and I think you can use it to help
28:49you form like a general draft strategy thinking about your entire draft like generally when do I need to get my running backs and wide receivers looks
28:58like early in the draft. uh is when those league winning profiles are available. Uh yeah, I don't think you can overfocus on oh the round three
29:07running back at 18% is higher than the wide receiver at 5% therefore this year I will only draft a running back in
29:15round three or pick any round to do that with. I think that's like the wrong way to kind of go about applying this data.
29:22Uh to me the big takeaway from or there's are several takeaways from what's on screen right now, but one is yeah there basically are no league
29:31winning wide receivers in the double digit rounds. We've had uh just yeah a 3% hit rate in round 11 and nothing else
29:37past round nine over the last nine years. Right. there is a legitimate wide receiver cliff uh where once we flip into the late rounds, you are probably
29:46better off certainly clicking quarterbacks, clicking tight ends, and even clicking running backs rather than clicking wide receivers just generally in this larger kind of span of rounds,
29:56right? Uh that that's like one way that I would apply this rather than oh look at round three, this is the highest
30:03number there, so draft this position.
30:06>> Yeah. And Ryan, I think you need to give yourself a little more credit. I do think here running back really worked
30:10last season. Obviously RB RB was probably, you know, optimal. But if you drafted Puku and Jonathan Taylor in your first two picks last year, you were
30:18probably owning everybody last season.
30:20And to your point about, you know, receiver scoring in general, it doesn't what we're talking about today, it doesn't mean that receiver doesn't move
30:27the needle in the first three rounds.
30:29Running backs just have an outsized effect on your team's ceiling outcomes in the in this pocket. It's, you know, you can draft receiver really well in
30:36rounds one through three, but it kind of like doesn't matter when some of these running backs just really outperform their ADP to a level that receivers
30:43can't get to. But we talk about this every year. You know, the high end of receiver scoring, the most ceiling outcomes come from the first three
30:50rounds of drafts at receiver. I looked at this, just over half of 90th percentile scores at wide receiver and half point PPR leagues will come from
30:59players that are drafted in the first three rounds. So, this is not to say that here running back can't work. It's
31:04just to say that, you know, Ryan's all of Ryan's research and all of our research here suggests that, you know, RBR RB starts are typically going to
31:11have a higher ceiling outcome than, you know, here running back or receiver receiver starts especially. Let's get into some receiver talk. Ryan, uh, what
31:20are some of the key ingredients that fantasy managers need to be looking at to produce a league type season?
31:27Obviously, efficiency is a big part of this. Age is a big part of this and something that you've been talking about
31:33all off season is just kind of the death of wide receiver twos in fantasy football, right? How do we identify some
31:39of the best values in fantasy at receiver?
31:44Yeah, in the article I have kind of four bullet points that I really care about at the wide receiver position this year
31:51just when I'm evaluating an individual receiver and saying does this receiver have league winning upside, right? Uh so one is per routeout efficiency. Uh we
32:03have seen over the last 5 years that wide receivers that are posting elite marks in first downs per route run specifically uh have some of the best
32:14league winning rates uh of of any group of receivers, right? I I I kind of did this in a bunch of statistical ways, but
32:22what I found was wide receivers that are already amazing by first downs per out run are very often hitting league winning seasons in their next year,
32:31right? Uh they don't actually have to get better in first downs per outr run.
32:35They they need more targets. They need more yards per outr run. Uh they need more touchdowns. They need more of every
32:41other stat. But if you identify an elite first downs per outr run player, uh very likely they have the stuff to be an a
32:51league winning wide receiver. They just might need something to break right for them, right? So I like to really focus on the profiles that were elite by first
33:00downs per outr run last year. Uh and there's a handful of names that I throw out in the article. I I can't say all of
33:07them uh here on this show, but that that's like one thing I like to look at, just first downs per outr run. Uh that's
33:14a stat that you can go look at yourself in the fantasy points data suite as well if you're a subscriber. Uh I I've got
33:20them all in the article for you, too. Uh a couple other things to look at. Very often we talk about like the year 2
33:28breakout at the wide receiver position that that that's the thing everyone gets really excited for. When we look at league winning wide receivers in the
33:35past, it has actually been year three, year four, and year five where we see the highest share of league winners. So,
33:44while yes, uh, wide receivers might break out, they might become a top 12 fantasy wide receiver in year two, the most often or or very often, what we're
33:54seeing from the league winners, if we're aiming even higher than just a breakout, is yeah, it's the prime of a wide
34:01receivers's career, year three, year four, year five. So, those are the receivers that I'm really focusing on for league winners, the guys that are in
34:09that range of their career. Uh, and then two other kind of opposing but related
34:16points are we want offenses that are high-flying that have a lot of wide receiver production in general. Uh, one of the most overrated things in fantasy
34:28football that for years now has been, "Oh, I want to draft the guy that's the wide receiver one on his own team." Uh,
34:36that is not true. That that is the opposite of that is correct. if you're actually looking for league winners, right? Uh I went back and tested all of
34:45the team wide receiver ones and all of the team wide receiver twos uh against ADP over the past five seasons who
34:52performed the best. It was actually the team wide receiver twos uh at least within the top 100 picks of ADP. The
35:00reason for that is we're actually very good as an industry at identifying the offenses that can support multiple wide receivers, believe it or not. Uh, if an
35:10offense can't support multiple wide receivers, they probably aren't going to have multiple wide receivers being drafted highly. So, I'm thinking of like
35:18the George Pickins of the world, the T.
35:20Higgins of the world for several years, right? These offenses where we kind of know that multiple receivers can be good. Those are great offenses to just
35:30target the wide receiver two because pe for whatever reason people massively overrate uh just being the wide receiver one on your own team a as we conceive of
35:40it in August, right? Uh so that that's like something to get out of your mind except for and this is like a very
35:48specific to this year kind of caveat to that except for the teams we think are going to live in these heavier personnel
35:55packages. uh very new in the NFL this year. It or not new but probably moving forward expanding in terms of what the
36:03meta of the league is is there are going to be a lot more teams that are running more of their plays out of heavy
36:10personnel with multiple tight ends on the field or with a fullback on the field and fewer wide receivers on the field. Uh so that's generally bad for
36:20teams or receivers that are the second or the third option in their offense that might now not even be on the field
36:26as much uh because of how their offense may shift to a more heavy personnel uh kind of style, right? But that's great
36:36for the wide receiver one on the team as long as they're the one that's actually on the field for all of the snaps is
36:43benefiting from that efficiency cheat code where it's much easier to earn targets against tight ends against fullbacks than against other wide
36:52receivers. So there there's really kind of like a two-way split here where I think you need to identify every single team where the heavy personnel teams we
37:01want the wide receiver one and maybe no one else. and the non-heavy personnel teams, the teams that are just going to
37:08drop back a ton uh in multi-receiver sets, in three receiver sets. Yeah. Then we want to draft the wide receiver twos
37:16on those teams or we should be very open to it. So, I wrote an entire article about this earlier in the offseason. You
37:23guys can go read it. Uh that one's a free read. Uh, finding the next Jackson Smith and Jigba is the name of that
37:28article where I go through every single team that I think will have a relevant amount of heavy personnel uh versus teams that I think could be more 11
37:37personnel heavy kind of sorting through uh which types of receivers we want to target on each of those teams. So, you
37:44can go read that for free right now uh if you're interested. But yeah, that that was like a big point to me where in
37:51general, yes, we like the team wide receiver twos if the team's good enough to have multiple wide receivers drafted.
37:57But new this year, I do think there is just that NFL meta thing we should have in mind where uh like Jackson Smith and
38:04Jigba totally smashed last year because it was the first time he was the lead receiver in two receiver sets. Uh and I
38:10think there will be at least one or two other wide receivers like that this year as more of the league takes on that kind
38:16of heavy personnel style. the Seahawks used last year.
38:19>> Yeah, to Ryan's point, last year 11 personnel, that's a three wide receiver personnel grouping, was down at 57%.
38:26It was by far the lowest rate of 11 personnel we've seen in recent years.
38:30Ryan, it's usually hovers around like 61 to 63% and we just saw a slew of tight ends drafted in the the draft in April.
38:38Uh I think you're just right. I think you're right that we're going to continue to see more tight ends play as
38:43the the NFL tries to find a counter punch. Offensives, you know, try to find a counter punch to the recent trend of
38:49playing a ton of two high safety coverage. And, you know, when you take a defender out of the box, you know,
38:54you're going to have to you're going to potentially have to pay for it with a run game. I think that's going to be a
38:58trend that we continue to see. Ryan, one of the things that you you talk about in your article is just kind of like the
39:03death of the receiver twos. One of the trends that we're going to continue to see as well is like a part slight part
39:08of this is the teams that obviously play a lot a lot of 11 have multiple receivers on the field like yeah they're
39:13going to be just you know these receivers are going to be running more routes but it's also like the receiver twos on teams that are very very pass
39:20heavy are becoming more valuable just because there's just so much more balance across the NFL. Pass routes are starting to shift down. Volume is
39:27shifting down for the pass games. And it's not just the pass games volume shifting down. It's just the way the game is being played now. pickoffs.
39:34Typically, you're going to get starting field position right around the 30 yardd line now. So, you got shorter fields, lower play volume. In my opinion, it's
39:42just going to make these receiver twos that are competing for more, you know, for flex viability more valuable. T.
39:48Higgins, you mentioned just a moment ago. I think we need to spend a second on him. T. Higgins, man, he's been like
39:53a top six, top seven, top eight fantasy wide receiver every single year that Joe Burrow has been healthy by on a perame
39:59basis. And now he's going at wide receiver 15 or 16. In my opinion, Higgins is like the perfect example of this that's being, you know, a player
40:07that's being undervalued because, yeah, he's got to compete for targets with Jamar Chase, Ryan, but there's a lot of volume in this passing offense that will
40:16go forward and and kind of fuel a really nice season for Higgins. Are there any other teams like, you know, beyond T.
40:23Higgins that you're kind of looking at that have a particularly valuable wide receiver, too, that might not necessarily being drafted there right
40:30now?
40:32First, sorry, I want to expand on T.
40:34Higgins a little bit, too. I love T.
40:35Higgins. He's a perfect example of kind of what I'm talking about where Higgins has averaged over 17 PPR fantasy points per game in games with Joe Burrow over
40:44the last two seasons. That is ahead of all of these like dead zone running backs from the end of round three, uh,
40:52what they averaged last year. So, if we're if we're just playing like the what did they average last year game, then yeah, there is more upside at the
41:00wide receiver position in those areas.
41:02Just really wanted to lean in on that.
41:05Uh, in terms of other offenses, uh, where they're going to have like a valuable wide receiver, too, or at least that where I like that there's some
41:15ambiguity and there's multiple wide receivers or pass catchers being drafted high. Uh, the Cowboys, of course, are one. They're just kind of next to the
41:24Bengals. Always one of the better bets to finish top three in the NFL in drop backs. Of course, we saw that outcome
41:31from George Pickins last season. Uh, a couple of interesting ones to me are I I don't know. It It's questionable whether
41:40we get the drop back volume, but I like the ambiguity of the Chicago Bears. Just these three guys, Luther Burton, Colston
41:48Lelin, Roma Dunay. uh just like the question everyone's having to ask themselves of who like whi which of these receivers will be supported by
41:58this offense, how many of them actually can be whi who is actually the wide receiver one, who's actually the top option. All of those being questions to
42:08me is a good thing in terms of us drafting those guys for their league winning upside because there's ambiguity because we don't know uh necessarily who
42:18the leading receiver is, who the top option is. All of them go later than they otherwise would if there were only
42:24one of them, right? So that that's like some it's while I get like it's scary to kind of try to sort out the Bears or the
42:32Jaguars would be another good example of this where there's just all of these wide receivers on this high-flying offense that we feel like we should be
42:40interested in. I'd say like don't be afraid to kind of pick into those types of situations. uh you want to have
42:48conviction in terms of which is the bet on this team that I feel best about paying off and hammer that bet. But just
42:56for the fact that it's ambiguous, I think you don't want to shy away from it because yeah, that's where we see kind
43:02of these league winners come out of these situations is because everyone's so uncertain. Uh we aren't drafting these guys as if they're like the
43:13clearcut top options like uh no worries.
43:16There's so much safety type of picks I that I Yeah, I don't know. I I don't want to like completely spoil all the
43:23picks and the names that I have in the article, but that that those are like a couple offenses I would point people
43:28towards and say you should consider uh or that Yeah. that you should think really hard about. Basically, >> I think you're right. In the in the
43:36past, we have spent too much time on trying to identify who does lead the team in targets. Maybe when it comes to
43:42the Bears or the Jaguars or I would even maybe mention the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a part of this discussion, maybe it
43:47doesn't really matter. Maybe maybe there's just multiple players that are right around a 22 to 25% target share and every single, you know, player is
43:56valuable within that framework of the offense because at the end of the year, Ryan, we're going to be looking up and
44:01there's going to be like 10 or 12 teams that are just completely dead. They're either completely dead for the NFL playoffs and they're kind of tanking or
44:07maybe they're evaluating a new quarterback. uh we're going to look up and we're going to see a lot of teams that are just kind of unusable by the
44:14end of the fantasy season. So trying to identify the teams that are not only just fighting for the, you know, NFL
44:19playoffs, but also like legitimately, you know, not injured, have multiple receivers that are, you know, usable every single week. These offenses as the
44:27season goes on are going to get even more valuable. We're talking anatomy of a league owner with our guy Ryan Heath.
44:34Ryan, you put together an excellent article over on Fantasy Points. If you guys have not subscribed already, I really truly you guys are totally
44:41missing out on Ryan's work, on Scott's work, on my work, John's work, our entire great staff at Fantasy Points.
44:47Use code fantasy. That's one word, fantasy. Get yourself 10% off any subscription right now. Ryan, let's p over pivot over to the onesie positions.
44:57I think one of the most interesting things about your article is the onesie positions and just kind of how you're attacking those. The plurality of league
45:05winning quarterbacks have been taken in rounds three through seven over the last, you know, eight years, nine years since you've been pulling the data over
45:13on ESPN. However, 31% of league winners are taken in rounds 11 through three, uh, excuse me, 11 through 13. We had a
45:23question in chat a moment ago, uh, from someone, and I apologize, I forgot their name. Uh, basically, he was asking, sorry, sorry, it's Sean Gier's question,
45:32Trey. He was asking, you know, we look at the third round in particular, uh, and we see a ton of league winning
45:42quarterbacks, right? Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson. Ryan, did these skew the data in your opinion? Do these three players, these couple of handful
45:52of players really skew the data? And do you think it's something that's like going to continue moving forward this season?
45:59So yes, specific players are going to skew the data at these onesie positions just because of how small the sample is,
46:06right? Uh for example, that round three quarterback figure that you see, I I think it was five out of the seven or
46:13something like that was literally just Josh Allen. Uh and you can say a similar thing at round two tight end where like
46:20all but one of them was literally just Travis Kelce in his prime, right? So that's like one thing you need to keep
46:26in mind. But to get more to Shawn's overall question, I think, which is like, hey, I see that hit rates are so
46:34high for league winners at quarterback in round three, round four, early. Why are you into late round quarterback? Why are you even entertaining this? The
46:43reason for that is opportunity cost, right? Uh so yes, the league winning hit rates at quarterback in rounds three and four are very high. They're among the
46:51highest league winning hit rate that you can find at any point in the draft over the last nine years, right? if we were
46:56to just analyze like that, uh, it's a it's a quote unquote sure thing. But the issue with that is any pick that you
47:04spend on a quarterback in round three or round four is a pick that you can't spend on a potential league winning
47:12running back or a potential league wide receiver. And what we've really seen when we compare across positions is not all league winners are created equal.
47:22Even though we've kind of been talking as if they have been uh for this entire video, right? Uh what we see is if you
47:29just look at the top 15 players by ESPN playoff rate across positions, there's like one quarterback and one tight end in there. It is almost all running backs
47:40and wide receivers. They're the ones that hit the highest end playoff rate outcomes. Uh they're the ones when we look at value over replacement in terms
47:48of a top three running back versus a bottom three and same for a quarterback uh top three versus a bottom three
47:54starter. The running backs just give you a much bigger advantage over the replacement level in your league, right?
48:01Uh the replacement level at quarterback is very high. It's very easy to stream the position, get a top six or a top
48:09eight quarterback in the aggregate just by being active on the waiver wire and getting 80% of the benefit of a Josh
48:17Allen, right? So, the floor is just higher at the quarterback position and arguably at the tight end position because a much easier to hit on in the
48:27late rounds at those positions than it is at the running back and wide receiver positions. Uh, and B, it's just that
48:35they score they they have less separation between the best possible quarterback and the like worst possible starting quarterback that you could have
48:45if you are effectively streaming the position or even if you're just picking up a Matthew Stafford early in the season last year. Uh, or yeah, if you
48:54just hit at the position, you're getting 90% of the benefit. Uh, and it's like part of this also is I just think it's
49:01easiest to find late round quarterbacks compared to any other position. Uh, we nailed Drake May last year here at Fantasy Points. Uh, Scott Barrett's late
49:10round Exodia quarterback has been a massive hit every single year basically like Scott is almost undefeated on that.
49:18It's just much easier to be correct on the late round quarterbacks than it is at any other position. So understanding that like that's our edge, that's our
49:28advantage, uh that we can pretty much always just hit on the late round quarterback. And if not, we can stream uh like a top six fantasy point per game
49:37performance at the position in the aggregate. Uh then we want to spend our highest most valuable resources, our early round picks elsewhere. We want to
49:46spend them on the running back and wide receiver positions where we can get the highest end possible outcomes even if they aren't going to hit maybe quite as
49:56frequently as if you were to just draft Josh Allen in round three every single year. Yeah, you would have hit league
50:01winners more than more than me in round three if you just clicked Josh Allen every time, but you're giving up the
50:07chance to hit the Jackson Smith and Jigba from round three last year, right?
50:12There's just a big opportunity cost you have to keep in mind if you're clicking a onesie position early.
50:18>> Yeah, the Bills fan in your league has just absolutely crushed the third round of his draft every single year just by
50:24clicking Josh Allen. Ryan, I think you're you're hitting on something that's the more important opportunity cost side of this is obviously the early
50:32round pick, but it's also in general, you can see on the screen, we do not do a good job like hand up, all of us do
50:38not do do a good job of identifying valuable receivers in the late round.
50:43So, a lot of the late round receivers that we take end up just being complete zeros or just have very little upside in
50:48the aggregate. So, why not spend those late round picks drafting a position where we feel reasonably confident about our ability to find the values? And this
50:57year in particular, Ryan, we've been talking about it a lot, but like QB8 through QB 20 is stocked. And obviously, there's going to be some injury
51:04attrition here by, you know, weeks four, four and five are going to be feeling a little different about the position by
51:10that point. But, yeah, I think you're just right. in general, you know, late round quarterback is it's becoming a more viable this year than it has in
51:18previous years. There's still a ton of good quarterbacks going in rounds five through six this year. Lamar Jackson's going in round five in many leagues.
51:26Jane Daniels, uh, Joe Burrow, Drake May, all going in rounds six and seven.
51:31Jaylen Herz is a seventh round pick on some platforms, which definitely seems like a good value. But I think you're right that that, you know, we're going
51:38to look up and we're going to see quite a few late round quarterback values this year in a way that we really I don't
51:42think we've we've seen at least in the last couple of years just because the middle rounds have been just dominated by Josh Allen, huge seasons from from
51:50Lamar Jackson and then yeah, like Ryan said, Drake May, Jaden Daniels both were like eighth, ninth, 10th round picks over the last two years and were two of
51:57the most valuable quarterbacks in fantasy. Late round tight end also works extremely well in the aggregate. works better than any other position, even
52:07more so than quarterback. Ryan, you pulled up all the data. It looks like over 40% of league winning tight ends have been drafted in round 10 or later,
52:16going back to ESPN's league w uh league data since 2017. I got to ask from an opportunity cost perspective, Ryan, when
52:24does it make sense to go tighten early?
52:27Does it ever make sense to go tight end early in your opinion? in shallow leagues, does it make sense to kind of
52:32spend up on the second round for for Brock Bowers or third round for Trey McBride this year? And moreover, do do
52:39you have any opinion on this strategy in PPR versus half PPR? Does that make a huge difference to you?
52:47So, the most important thing at in terms of when should I draft a tight end early uh really should be rephrased as when
52:57should I draft a tight end that can outproduce the running back or the wide receiver that I would have drafted there. Uh it is like that. And that
53:05sounds like kind of duh simple, but that that's really what it breaks down to. Uh when we look at the wins above
53:12replacement that a tight end's fantasy points give you, we see that it's basically equivalent to the running back position. So in other words, a tight end
53:22is you're getting about as much of a boost from the scarcity of the tight end position as you're getting from the
53:28scarcity of the running back position if you were to draft a high-end one. Right?
53:32So you really you should only draft a tight end early if you're just not in a position to instead select a running
53:39back that you think is going to outscore them is kind of the test that I think you should run uh in your mind with
53:44every tight end. And of course at Fantasy Points we have all of these projected out. So that's pretty easy to look at at least from a median outcome
53:52perspective of okay at the median which uh of these early round running backs do we think a Brock Bowers can outscore or
53:59a Trey McBride or a Colston Lovelin or what have you right uh so but to answer the question in like a more useful way
54:06uh I think there are scenarios where it could make sense to select a tight end early this year uh at the two three turn
54:14if you're in a league where kind of my entire first couple tiers of running backs have gone off the board and it's
54:21only the dead zone guys left, then yeah, I'm cool with clicking a Brock Bowers, uh, or a wide receiver, uh, like a Drake
54:29London, an AJ Brown, like I I think it can make sense to go tight end there if there just aren't any good running backs
54:37left. Uh or alternatively in shallower leagues as you brought up uh maybe you're just in maybe you're in an ESPN 10 team league, an eight team league or
54:47just your league's ADP is like all out of whack and running backs are falling much further than they should. if you
54:54can swing it to get say a Jir Gibbs or a Bjan Robinson with a top two pick uh another running back that we talked
55:02about that we like in round two at the two three turn and Brock Bowers is still there and you can get both of them.
55:07Yeah, totally do that then. Uh if you've already like filled out your running back slots, I think that makes a ton of
55:14sense. Uh, I think something similar could happen with a Colston Love Lovelin in like the more shallow leagues where it you may be in a position where it's
55:23like, hey, this is an eight or a 10 team league. My league mates are total dunes and I've like already filled out my two
55:31running back slots. I have a wide receiver or two and I can get a Lovelin.
55:35Yeah, totally do it then. because if the opportunity cost has gone away like to the point that you are set at all these
55:42other positions then yeah click a tight end that's cool with me. Uh but I think for the most part in especially in like
55:4912 team leagues and and larger especially in more competitive leagues uh just where the correct players are going to come off the board like when
55:58they probably should. I think it becomes a lot harder to justify uh using one of those early bullets on a tight end just
56:05because you're compete. You have to compete so much harder to get those uh potential league winning running backs and wide receivers. Again, the scarcest
56:14things, the positions that you pretty much have to hammer early. Uh wasting a bullet on a tight end in that scenario
56:22where you don't have like an embarrassment of riches already uh at those other positions. That that's when it doesn't make sense to me. And I I
56:28think that's that's probably most of the people listening to this uh or or reading my article. I I would assume play in like slightly more competitive
56:38leagues um where guys will go off the board when they should or at least close to ADP. Um but yeah, if you find
56:44yourself in that scenario I outline, then yeah, sure, take a Brock Bowers. I think you can build super teams uh in in
56:52like those specific scenarios with an early tight end. Yeah, I got to be honest. I would not take Brock Bowers if
56:58I were in a half point PPR, three wide receiver, start three wide receiver with multiple flex just because there's so much opportunity cost associated with
57:08his ADP in the second round. The same kind of logic applies to Trey McBride, but for secondary reasons, I really think it's like quality of offense and
57:16quarterback potential reasons with McBride. Uh if however if you're in a Yahoo league where you do just start two running backs and two receivers, one
57:24tight end, one flex right now, Brock Bowers is going right at pick 20. And if you're telling me I can start my draft
57:30with Jamir Gibbs or Bejian Robinson and come back and get Brock Bowers in a 10 team league where I only have a few, you
57:36know, starting positions, I only start two receivers, I only have one extra flex spot, then yeah, absolutely I'm going to be way more interested in that
57:44just because there is less opportunity cost associated, there's fewer starting positions that we have to play and you know, Bower's positional potential
57:53positional upside just gets completely uh you know, it's a lot more valuable in those 10 team format. mats for that reason. Ryan, this has been fantastic,
58:01man. Uh, going through anatomy of a league winner here at fantasypoints.com.
58:07Ryan really walks through each position, each strategy, what makes the most sense. Ryan, fantastic work today, man.
58:14This has been an awesome pod.
58:16>> Yeah, thanks so much for having me. I appreciate getting to come on and talk anatomy of a league winner. It is. We
58:22didn't even scratch the surface today, guys. Honestly, I I would really encourage that if Yeah. If you guys are interested in this article, if you're
58:30interested in Scott Barrett's draft guide, uh his Exodia picks, the best in the industry to me, you can go get all
58:37of that right now on fantasypoints.com.
58:40Uh I will also have my own separate kind of draft guide style article that is much less 90minute read rambling about
58:50uh positional strategy and much more here are my rankings. Here are my late round targets. Here are like exactly the kind of bullet points that I want you to
58:59go through when you're drafting. I will have that article coming out later this week. It'll be Ryan Heat's mustdraft players will also be on
59:07fantasypoints.com.
59:08Uh and yeah, we'll also be accessible to fantasy points subscribers. So yeah, highly recommend all of that and everything we have going on at fantasy
59:17points right now. Yeah, Ryan's My Guys is going to be an absolute banger. Just like this podcast, everybody on this pod
59:25will be reading Ryan's article and getting a lot smarter either anatomy or my guys. Ryan is putting together a PhD level offseason in fantasy football
59:35articles and content. Make sure you're checking all of his work out here at fantasypoints.com.
59:41For Ryan, I'm Graham. We'll see you guys at the top of the leaderboards.
59:50Hey, hey,
