Fantasy Football Top Scorers of 2026 REVEALED - League-Winners and Best Picks by Projections!
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
43 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 30, 2026
Published
Thu, July 30, 2026
17
Player insights
16
Players mentioned
Topics
Puka NacuaBijan RobinsonBrock BowersBrock PurdyChristian McCaffreyDe'Von AchaneJa'Marr ChaseJared GoffJoe BurrowJoe FlaccoJosh AllenLamar JacksonMark AndrewsMatthew Stafford
Player analysis
Player insights
Bijan Robinson
PositiveProjection12:48
Robinson ranks 1.02 with elite workload potential; Tyler Algier poses minimal competition for inside-five carries, and Tua Tagovailoa is one of the most target-heavy quarterbacks to running backs in his career. Robinson hit 30 fantasy points in five of his last eight games, accumulated nearly 2,300 yards from scrimmage (12th most in NFL history), and scored more receiving fantasy points per game than Ladd Maconi, DK Metcalf, and Alec Pierce. The source ranks him in the same tier as Gibbs with a massive falloff to the next running back, comparing the 1.01–1.02 dynamic to LaDainian Tomlinson–Priest Holmes/Shaun Alexander dominance.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveProjection35:32
Projected at 14.3 PPR PPG with league-winner potential; ranked as tight end one by the source nine spots ahead of Trey McBride. Bowers is going in ADP between wide receiver seven and eight, which aligns with his historical production tier (roughly WR7-WR8 over last two seasons). The source argues his breakout season justifies taking him around Nico Collins and AJ Brown in draft order. Bowers has elite prospect pedigree and has averaged PPR points per game in his first two NFL seasons second only to Rob Gronkowski among tight ends, with significantly lower target competition than McBride.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
PositiveValue12:00
Purdy's price in Superflex leagues is too cheap; he projects incredibly well and is available in the second and third round pocket, making him a value target in Superflex formats.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
NegativeProjection19:54
The source projects Christian McCaffrey as a median outcome; a healthy McCaffrey could push Gibbs and Bijan down the rankings, but the source notes McCaffrey has lost a step while both Gibbs and Bijan are significantly more explosive runners. In PPR leagues, McCaffrey's volume—particularly his reception history (four 100-reception seasons in his career; only 40 RBs in the last 20 years have achieved this)—keeps him competitive, though the source does not see him finishing as RB1 given the explosive upside of Gibbs and Bijan. McCaffrey could finish very close to RB2 in scoring this season.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
PositiveValue11:20
Achane is a top 25 player in the source's overall projections despite going at the 2–3 turn in Superflex drafts, positioning him as a viable second-round running back option after Josh Allen at 1.01. This represents significant value relative to his ADP.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
NegativeValue21:48
Chase goes ADP 103 in FFPC format, but the source prefers Puka at 103–104 due to historical outscoring analysis: Chase has outscored the Rams WR1 in only one of the last five seasons. Over the last two seasons, Chase averages 22.6 PPR points per game per Burrow start—a full point better than Puka—and benefits from Burrow's league-leading 37.7 pass attempts over the last four seasons and first-place catchable throw rate over the last two seasons. However, Chase has only 3 end zone targets in 13 games with Adams, versus Adams' 24, limiting touchdown upside relative to Puka. The source views this as a true 50/50 decision and would diversify between both at picks 103–104.
Insight pageJared Goff
PositiveValue12:00
Goff's price in Superflex leagues is too cheap; he projects incredibly well and is available in the second and third round pocket, making him a value target in Superflex formats.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
NegativeProjection23:06
Burrow leads all passers in pass attempts over the last four seasons at 37.7 attempts per game and ranks first in catchable throw rate over the last two seasons when healthy. This elite volume and accuracy support Chase's 22.6 PPR points per game average over the last two seasons, significantly outpacing Stafford's best two seasons at 35 pass attempts. However, Burrow carries injury risk; he balled out with backup Joe Flacco last year, who is noted as probably the best backup quarterback the Bengals have had in a long time, mitigating downside if Burrow is unavailable.
Insight pageJoe Flacco
NegativeRole28:18
Flacco is noted as probably the best backup quarterback the Bengals have had in a long time. Chase balled out with Flacco last year, mitigating injury risk concerns about Burrow's availability. This backup quality reduces downside for Chase if Burrow is unavailable.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveProjection4:24
Josh Allen is the top projected quarterback at Fantasy Points by a significant margin. He has finished as QB1 by fantasy points per game in four of his last five seasons, with one year tying Jaylen Hertz for QB1; he has been the runaway QB1 in fantasy for essentially five straight years. The Bills offense scored 28.3 points per game this past season, nearly leading the league and implying second-most points per game going forward. Over the last five years, Allen ranks second in passing touchdowns and fourth in rushing touchdowns, establishing him as a consistent touchdown machine. He is projected for 23.7 more fantasy points this season than Lamar Jackson, establishing him as the clear QB1. He has legitimate 450 fantasy point upside; he has scored over 400 fantasy points three times in his career and gone over 370 six straight times, demonstrating absolute dominance at the position. In Superflex leagues, he is a slam dunk 1.01 pick.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
NegativeInjury6:06
Lamar Jackson picked up a lower body injury late in 2024 that transformed his fantasy performance from elite to Aaron Rodgers-like post-injury. The source argues that removing Lamar's hyper mobility via lower body injury changes how defenses play him—they no longer have to play soft coverage due to fear of his rushing threat—materially reducing his fantasy value relative to his pre-injury pace.
Insight pageMark Andrews
PositiveValue41:21
The source cites Mark Andrews as part of a historic 2019 draft strategy where ADP was exceptionally soft; the speaker was 'all in on McCaffrey and Lamar and Mark Andrews' that year, and all three 'went off.' The source notes that current 2026 ADP 'hasn't been this soft since 2019,' suggesting similar value opportunity exists now.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
NegativeProjection26:47
Stafford's best two seasons have featured 35 pass attempts per game, achieved in his first year with the Rams and last season. This volume is 2.7 attempts below Joe Burrow's league-leading 37.7 over the last four seasons, supporting the source's volume-based argument for Jamar Chase over Puka Nacua. The source also expects Stafford's touchdown rate to regress this season, which would narrow the red zone target gap between Adams and Puka and reduce Adams' end zone involvement.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveValue21:48
Puka Nakua is positioned as a strong value play and coin flip with Jamar Chase at ADP 103 versus Chase's typical ADP of 103 (Puka goes around 106 in FFPC format). The source notes Puka 'went absolutely nuclear' last season and projects him to outscore Jamar Chase this season. Puka leads the league in yards per route run in back-to-back seasons, averaging 3.76 YPRR—a full yard more than the next closest player and 1.38 yards ahead of Chase. Matthew Stafford's 7.7% touchdown rate last season is expected to regress toward his 5.5–6% base rate with the Rams, yet Stafford still projects as QB13 and Puka still outprojects Chase. The source explicitly states he would have the decision at 'very close to 50/50' and might take Puka at 103 instead of Chase, suggesting Puka offers value relative to his typical draft position.
Insight pageNegativeValue23:06
Puka is the source's preferred pick at 103–104 ADP in the Nacua vs. Chase debate. Puka leads the league in yards per route run in back-to-back seasons, averaging 3.76 YPRR—a full yard more than the next closest player and 1.38 yards ahead of Chase (the same differential as between Chase and WR117 David Moore). The source acknowledges Puka's injury risk and red zone target disadvantage (3 targets in 13 games vs. Adams' 24), but notes that Adams' regression and Stafford's touchdown rate decline should narrow this gap. Puka's snap share was limited to below 55% in seven games due to injury, but the source views the matchup as 50/50 and would take Puka gun-to-head at pick 103.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
NegativeProjection11:20
Barkley is a top 25 player in the source's overall projections despite going at the 2–3 turn in Superflex drafts, positioning him as a viable second-round running back option after Josh Allen at 1.01.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveProjection32:26
Scored the third-most fantasy points by any tight end in NFL history with 18.6 PPR points per game in 2024, accumulating over 100 fantasy points more than the next-closest tight end. This elite production was driven by Jacobe Brassette's league-leading tight end target rate and McBride's exceptional talent. Now going in the middle of the third round around T. Higgins and Chris Olave, positioning him to be drafted around wide receiver 12, 13, or 14. The source finds this ADP appealing in both 10-team and 12-team leagues, making him a viable tight end option in the middle of the third round regardless of league format.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:13Yo, what is going on? It is Fantasy Football Daily. I'm Graham Barfield joined today by my guy, Mr. CEO Scott Barrett. He was just saying behind the
0:22scenes he is finishing up his draft guide for this season. Exodia plays all of his smash plays and fades at ADP. I'm
0:30super excited for Scott to drop the draft guide. And today on this pod, we're going to be dropping a little bit
0:34of knowledge about the top projected players in fantasy football this season, going through our projections, debating each position. Is there a legitimate
0:44contender to Josh Allen? We'll debate through Jir Gibbs versus Von Robinson and talk through Puka Nua and Jamar Chase. Scott and I talked a little bit
0:52yesterday. We viewed that one legitimately as a coin flip. Excited to get into the projections and everything today with Scott. I need to say off the
1:00top, we had the most accurate weekly pro projections last season compared to the industry. We looked at our projections compared them to a bunch of competitors
1:09throughout the industry and our guy Chris Wet had the most accurate in the industry last year. You see that up on
1:17your screen last year. It was it was pretty close. It's close across the industry, a lot of sameness in the industry, but our guy Chris Wet
1:24absolutely crushed projections last year, and we're going to help you crush your fantasy leagues this season. Scott, what's going on, man? Hey. Yeah. Yeah.
1:33So, we had the most accurate weekly projections last year. That really matters, especially if you're a DFS player. But even if you're a reddraft
1:41player, you're making your start sit decisions, you want the utmost confidence. Well, fantasy points is the best. Uh, and that's also true with, you
1:49know, draft rankings. Like I I I think my you put my rankings up against anyone else in the industry. I think I kicked
1:55their butts. Um, but that was always the case. You know, uh, Joe Dolan won the Fantasy Pros rankings contest. He was
2:02the number one ranker over a cumulative five-year period, and then we stopped giving our rankings away to a competitor for free because that's stupid. Um, but
2:12you know, when we were actually in that contest, uh, we were wiping the floor with everyone else. Um, and it's like no
2:18surprise we have the best rankings and we have the best projections. It's because all that is powered by Fantasy Points data, which is the best NFL data
2:28in the industry. It's way better, more accurate than PFF. If you don't believe me, NFL director of analytics Ryan Pagnetti tweeted just last week quote
2:40unquote for a decade. I used the source teams pay six figures for and I can clearly say that fantasy points data's
2:46accuracy is better. He's talking about PFF there. So, uh, shout out to, you know, the team we have Chris Wet doing
2:53projection. Shout out to Brett Whitefield running the charting team. uh PFF is like a ninef figureure juggernaut and you know little old fantasy points
3:05data if we're more accurate than them if we're collecting better data than them uh really think that's a testament to us
3:11but yeah we because of the because we have the best data in the industry we should have the best rankings we should
3:16have the best projections and uh by the numbers we do so uh shout out to fantasy points fantasy points data do you have a
3:24promo code is there do we get a promo code going >> yeah use code fantasy for 10% off. Uh that'll get you 10% off any plan. Scott,
3:32you got your draft guide coming out. Uh the basic plan is $60 a year, so you can save yourself 10% off of that. And if
3:40you're listening to us on YouTube, hit the QR code on the screen right now.
3:43It's in the bottom right hand corner.
3:45You can scan that code, get all of Scott's draft guides, John's draft guide this year. I've got my Superflex draft guide coming out next week as well, and
3:54our awesome projections. But yeah, man, you're right. Uh little teaser, we we have some fun stuff coming out with data in the next very soon in the next couple
4:02months. I I think we're going to have hopefully uh some some really cool stuff coming out. Uh either this this year or
4:08next year. You guys are going to absolutely love uh what we have coming down the pike when it comes to data.
4:13Man, it's uh it's mind-blowing.
4:14Legitimately mind-blowing. But Scott, let's get started, man. We'll get started with each position's top rejected player, going through each position, debating the top projected
4:23player at fantasy points. The first one really isn't much of a debate. I think we're actually going to have a legitimate debate between running backs,
4:30receivers, and tight ends. We'll get started with Josh Allen. Josh Allen is just by far and away our top projected quarterback. And it makes sense, Scott.
4:38I mean, the dude has finished as the QB1 by fantasy points per game in four out of his last five seasons. Just
4:44remarkable consistency. He had one year where he did tie Jaylen Herz as the QB1, but he's basically been the runaway QB1
4:51in fantasy for, you know, five straight years essentially. Uh, this offense, this Bills offense has just been like a metronome of scoring, Scott. It's just
4:59every year they're pumping out touchdowns in an incredibly high rate.
5:02Uh, this past season, you know, Bills were up at 28.3 points per game, nearly led the league. The Rams and the Lions
5:10were just slightly ahead of the Bills in points per game this year. uh Seahawks right there as well. But Bills are
5:15implied for second most points per game, man. Josh Allen has just been an absolute touchdown machine. I went back and looked at this over the last 5
5:23years. He ranks second passing touchdowns and fourth in rushing touchdowns. He's just scored a ton uh over the last couple of years, man. I I
5:30don't really think there's any debate that Josh Allen is a QB1. How close is like Lamar Jackson and the the rest of
5:36the kind of secondary tier to to Allen for you?
5:40Yeah, I I mean I don't think it's that close. You can make a devil's advocate argument that Lamar Jackson is the the
5:49better value going what is it, you know, round and a half later. Um because in 2024, Lamar Jackson was Fantasy's QB1.
5:59He averaged three fantasy points per game, more than Josh Allen, who ranked second. And then through the first three weeks last year, Lamar Jackson was
6:07continuing that pace. He looked like head and shoulders above everyone else.
6:11And then he picked up that lower body injury and he turned into Aaron Rodgers from a a fantasy perspective, from a
6:18real life NFL perspective. And like that's that's what I keep saying is it's like you take away um Cyclops, you know, laser vision and he's
6:30just a guy, right? So, if you take away Lamar's hyper mobility, you give him a lower body injury, uh defenses, you
6:38know, they don't have to to to play him, you know, as soft as they typically play him because they're so worried about the
6:45threat uh through his legs. And so, you can make an argument that, hey, like if if everyone's fully healthy, this is
6:52really close. Um, but no, I I I do have Josh Allen one. like you said, he's finished first or second at the position
6:59in fantasy points per game in six straight seasons. Over that span, he has 330 more fantasy points than anyone else. Uh he he plays through any injury
7:10and he, you know, his efficiency and productive uhness don't really suffer like it does for Lamar Jackson. Uh no Shawn McDermad, it's it's it's Joe
7:20Brady, the OC, now the head coach. Uh, so maybe they go even more pass heavy uh than we've become accustomed. Maybe that
7:27was a a Shawn McDermott thing, wanting to go as runheavy and slow pace as they have. Um, just like the consistency is
7:34remarkable. The medium projections remarkable and the ceiling is is unreal.
7:40I I said uh he's he's one of the best underdog picks right now in baseball. Um the stack is really cheap, but more than
7:49anything, he just has impossible to win without upside. Uh he has the most fantasy points of any quarterback in any game all time. And then I think he
8:00scored like 58, something like that. And then the next week I think he scored like 41. It's like imagine that happens
8:07in the the playoff rounds of the underdog format. Like you're not going to be able to advance your teams without a Josh Allen. So um yeah, add it all up.
8:16I think easy QB1. I think it's kind of worth the premium ahead of Lamar Jackson, ahead of everyone else. But, um, it's also like, you know, me, my
8:26late round Exodia quarterback has smashed in like eight straight seasons.
8:30Drake May last year, Exodia quarterback was the QB2 behind Josh Allen. So, when you can hit on when it's like really
8:38easy to hit on these late round gems at the quarterback position, I'm always going to take that approach in my own
8:44drafts.
8:45This is in particular a great year for late round quarterback. I've been saying that all summer. I think it's an awesome
8:50year for late round quarterback. We It's really deep. Big long flat tier after like QB7 or QB8. Really, it's like after
8:57Herbert and Lawrence and and Dak.
8:59There's just like a really nice big long flat tier. But yeah, I don't think it's particularly close either. Producer Trey had the projections up on the screen
9:05just a moment ago. We have Josh Allen projected for 23.7 more fantasy points this season than Lamar Jackson. Keep in mind when we're talking through all
9:14these projections that Chris does, these are median projections. So, it's it's definitely waiting floor and ceiling, but to give Josh Allen a a 23-point head
9:22start over QB2 and QB3, Lamar Jackson, Drake May. Yeah, I mean, it's it's just a slam dunk. We did have a question in
9:29chat I saw pop up, which was a pretty good one, uh, from NPG 2424. He asks, "Any chance you'd take Gibbs over Josh
9:38Allen 101 in Superflex?" I don't think I can do it just because Allen absolutely outp projects uh every quarterback by such a wide margin like I just said and
9:48he's also got like legitimate 450 fantasy point type upside. Allen has scored over 400 fantasy points three times in his career. He's gone over 370
9:58six times, six straight times. It's just uh absolute dominance at the position.
10:03Um Scott, in Superflex, I know you don't do a ton of Superflex leagues and content, but Allen's just like the slam
10:09duck 101, right?
10:11Allen is >> Yeah.
10:13>> No, no, I don't think so. I So, yeah.
10:16So, in Superflex, quarterback matters more than running back. And it's like you could do some simple back of the napkin math, there's 24 you you ideally
10:27you're starting your league starting 24 quarterbacks every week. Um, but there's only in a 12 team league, but there's only 32 starting quarterbacks available.
10:38Um, and so due to positional scarcity, it becomes the most important. But again, it ties back to what I was saying
10:43about the late round quarterbacks hitting at an inordinately high rate and just, you know, catapulting themselves into that mid QB1 range because you have
10:55that. Whereas with the running back position, like who are the league winning running backs every year? it's always the guys going rounds one through
11:01two and it's really hard to find anyone beyond that who's, you know, majorly impactful. Um, so because of that, uh, I
11:12I am still taking a a late round quarterback approach in my superflex drafts and I' I'd gravitate more towards the running backs.
11:20>> Interesting. Yeah. I mean, I I still think Allen's the 101 because I mean, this season in particular in Superflex, we still have like Devon Achan, Saquon
11:28Barkley, Ashen Genty, all going at like the two three turn just because you're like you're saying, you know, quarterbacks do get pushed up. I think
11:34there's there's a way that you can structurally get a team where it's like Josh Allen's like you're clear 101 and then you come back, you get a really
11:41good running back there in the second round of the two-3 turn you feel good about. I I will say Jir Gibbs does
11:46straight up like out project Josh Allen in our in our projections this year by about 10 12 fantasy points. So Scott,
11:54maybe you're right. I mean, maybe it is a little closer than I think. I guess I'm just looking at this as like Josh
11:58Allen's like the clear QB1. And then I'm I'm with you. Typically, I take like a late round approach as well in in
12:04reddraft and in superflex and that extends into this year. I love Brock Pury and J Jared Goff's prices in Superflex leagues uh this season. I
12:12think they project incredibly well and they're they're a little too cheap there in that like second and third round pocket. But I I I think just this year
12:18the way drafts are setting up in terms of ADP, you get Josh Allen at the 101, you're going to feel pretty good about
12:24the running backs that are coming back to you. Yeah, maybe sure it's not Jamir Gibbs and Bejian Robinson level of projection, but I mean Devon Achan,
12:31Saquon Barkley in particular, Ashen Jenty, all all three of those running backs are still top 25 players in our projections overall. So, I'm I'm still
12:39very very into Josh Allen at the 101.
12:42Let's talk through Jir Gibbs and Bjun Robinson though. Scott, how close is it for you? I think maybe the one thing I
12:48keep coming back to is like, yeah, Bjun Robinson's workload this season, bro. It might be like absolutely crazy. No, Tyler Algier this season to steal, you
12:56know, inside five carries. Plus, we've got Tua starting at quarterback most likely. And Tua has been one of the most, you know, target heavy
13:04quarterbacks to running backs in his career. He's Jake Triby just put out an excellent article at Fantasy Points going through target tendencies and Tua
13:12has always been one of the most voluminous quarterbacks to his running backs. That said, bro, the Lions just significantly outpro the Falcons this
13:22year. Lions are second implied points per game. They're our top projected team by just total fantasy points, quarterback, running back, receiver, and
13:29tight end. Falcons are below average, 23rd in total projected fantasy points and they're 25th in implied points per game. So Scott, I I'll pose the question
13:38to you. Jir Gibbs, I I feel pretty strongly as the 101, but how close is it for you?
13:44>> Um, so I have them in this in the same tier. Like it's it's 101 to me is Gibbs, then it's 102 Bejian, and then it feels
13:52like a really big falloff between, you know, those two guys and the next one.
13:56Like I I've been saying it's it's kind of reminiscent of you know like the first year that I ever played fantasy
14:03football where it's like Leenian Tomlinson goes 101 and then it was Priest Holmes or Shawn Alexander 102.
14:09And it's like those are the only two teams who like have a chance at winning the championship. Like though Leinian Tomlinson was so dominant he broke snake
14:18style drafts. Like you you had to just move to auction or you know your 101 was just so overpowered. Um, and I think
14:27they have that in their range of outcomes. Like that's how strongly I feel about the 101 and the 102.
14:33>> Bejian Robinson, you know, to make the case for him. Uh, he hit 30 fantasy points in five of his last eight games
14:40last year. He had nearly 2,300 yards from scrimmage. It was the 12th most in NFL history. Um, he he scored more
14:49receiving fantasy points per game than Lad Maconi and DK Metaf and Alec Pierce.
14:54and then only four running backs had more rushing fantasy points. There is a a real scenario where you you see it on
15:01the screen right here. Touago Valoa targets running backs at the highest rate in the league. There is a real scenario where he could have a he could
15:10have a 1,00 1000 season. You know, Christian McCaffrey was the last one to do it. He could have a Christian McCaffrey s season. But yeah, obviously
15:18the big concern here is like we're not high on the Falcons and you know, we don't really trust to uh to stay
15:24healthy. We don't really think he is a good quarterback and Michael Penn we don't think is a good and so uh also I I
15:30thought he I thought Zack Robinson did some some really good things to you know for for Bejon to benefit from the scheme
15:38particularly on the ground that he had that you know the new play caller maybe that's more of a question mark. Um, but
15:44Jamir Gibbs, yeah, it's it's I don't remember the last time a 101 pick felt this easy to me. Uh, you hear you hear
15:53um uh Dan Campbell talk about Gibbs as the bellcow now where you lose David Montgomery. Uh, I think that, you know,
16:05really goes a long way and certainly by the data we've seen that in games without David Montgomery over his career, he averages 27.4
16:15fantasy points per game. Um, which is the most in NFL history. Uh, it's about five more than the next closest, Christian McCaffrey. It's there
16:27on the screen right now. And so, yeah, it's just, you're talking about an unreal ceiling here. Um, and uh, and yeah, I I feel good about it.
16:37>> Gibbs is one of the most high confidence 101s we've had. I I'm with you on that.
16:41And and I like how you kind of relate it back to the the heydays of running backs with Leanny and Tomlinson and Priest
16:47Holmes. So maybe maybe I need to adjust my Superflex rankings a little bit and give uh more thought to Gibbs and Bejon
16:53at 101. Scott, you're making some compelling arguments, but uh, bro, Jir Gibbs is going to the moon this season.
17:00Uh the Lions have the easiest strength of schedule this season going into the year by the Vegas win totals. Scott Jir
17:06Gibbs has put up like ridiculous numbers in wins compared to losses. It's it's like only Christian McAffrey really can compete with in in terms of like his
17:15level of output over 29 PPR points per game in wins last season for Jir Gibbs.
17:21And yeah, I mean it's like he's been splitting carries inside the 10 with David Montgomery for how long now? Yeah.
17:28And the last three seasons, bro, the Lions have 66 expected rushing touchdowns. Last three seasons, 66. The next closest team is the Ravens with 54.
17:38The touchdown upside with Gibbs is just ridiculous. I mean, he has legitimate 20 touchdown upside if he plays 16 or 17
17:45games this year. One thing I looked at, too, is the the Lions remained very, very runheavy inside the 10 last season
17:51as well. They had a negative 7% pass rate under expectation inside the 10.
17:56That's right in line with their last season with Ben Johnson, too. They're at negative9% in terms of their their PO.
18:01So, Gibbs just has like scorched earth upside. Bejian Robinson does, too. I just have legitimately huge concerns with Tua and Penn compared to Jared
18:11Goth. I mean, Goth has been super underrated, dude. The last two seasons, Goth is third in EPA per dropback. Only Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have been
18:20better, and both those guys obviously just have like elite rushing upside. So, it's not just like this offense. It's the quarterback. It's the play caller.
18:27Uh I I just have legitimate concerns about, you know, the Falcons and their ability to get inside the 10. But I
18:33mean, dude, the the volume with Bejon, I think he leads all players in expected fantasy points this year. Like it would
18:38not Scott, would it surprise you at all if he's like two or three points clear of like all players in XFP this year?
18:44>> No. No, it wouldn't. But but again like the the difference in the offense really like if you want to break the ties I
18:52think I think the first thing you would say is just like okay this is a top five offense Falcons are probably below
18:58average and just you know way more opportunity for points and then the second thing is shout out to D bro good
19:06friend of the show like really value his opinion we were we were debating this and he was he pointed out to me what
19:13concerns him is you know looking at the splits last year. Jir Gibbs numbers with without Sam Laaporta, like he was so
19:20much more involved in the passing game when Leaporta was out. And like my counter to that was like I don't I don't
19:26care. Again, look at the splits with without David Montgomery. Like if Montgomery was still on this team, where would Gibbs be going? He'd be going 102.
19:35And now he's off the team. And there like he Gibbs is top three in fantasy points per game every year with a 55%
19:44snapshare. and now it's going to 75%.
19:46And so it should just be Yeah, I think I think this is really like for a player this talented, you know,
19:54Leini and Tomlinsonesque Christian McAffreyesque outcomes are are almost the median projection here.
20:01>> Yeah, it is. It is basically the the median projection for us here at Fantasy Points. Uh, I I hear the concerns about
20:08Leaporta maybe, but even like a dude, a one or two percent reduction in the target share, it doesn't make up for the
20:14fact that Gibbs is going to have significantly more touchdown upside this season than he's had in prior years. We didn't have this on the show sheet,
20:21Scott, but I think a healthy Christian McCaffrey does push these two guys. Uh, the the one push back there is McAffrey
20:28has lost a step. Gibbs, Bejon, just both significantly more explosive runners.
20:33But I mean, McAffrey, particularly in PPR leagues where a target is two and a half times worth more two and a half
20:39times than a than a carry in PPR, man, like it's it's still pretty clo like it's it's Bejian and Gibbs for sure. But
20:45I think McAffrey, like if he stays healthy for a full season, uh I I don't know if I see him finishing as the RB1
20:51cuz I think both these players are just better and have more explosive upside.
20:54But McAffrey, the volume has just been so good. like it's been, dude, he's been so good volume-wise for fantasy, especially in the pass game. McAffrey
21:04has four 100 reception seasons in his career. Over the last 20 years, only 40 players have done that at running back.
21:10He's got four of them. Uh I just want to give a quick shout out to McCaffrey, too. I do think uh we could look up and
21:16see him be very close to the RB2 in scoring this season.
21:21>> Yeah.
21:22>> All right, we'll switch over to receiver. Puka, like I was saying, Puka versus Jamar Chase is legitimately a coin flip. It's It's a legitimately fun
21:29coin flip. Scott, I I think last year, you know, the Rams were one of the teams that you just had to have. This is like
21:35been a a running theme in fantasy is you want the best players from the best offenses, and it's especially true now
21:41with with some of the rule changes in the NFL and just kind of like the shift towards, you know, slower pace, lower
21:46volume, more runheavy. Rams were just dominated in terms of advance rates last season into the playoffs in fantasy football. Pu Puka Nakua just went
21:55absolutely nuclear. Uh [snorts] the the one big difference that I think we have to talk about with these two offenses this year, it's it's kind of like a
22:04twofold thing. Stafford had a 7.7% touchdown rate last season. That is bound to fall back closer to his base rate with the Rams, which is like 5 1/2
22:136%. And even with this baked in, Stafford came out of projections pretty favorably. QB13 and so did Puka. Puka outp projects Jamar Chase this season.
22:23That being said, a healthy Joe Burrow, dude, it's been the most pass like efficient pass offense in football with Joe Burrow on the field since 2022. The
22:31Bengals lead all teams in EPA per dropback when Burrow is on the field.
22:35And it's by a significant margin. It's by a few ticks. So, it's really close, man. Scott, let's talk through Jamar Chase versus Puka. In your opinion, who
22:44are you taking at 101 or you, you know, you just splitting that difference whenever you get the 103? Uh, is there a
22:50clear wide receiver one for you?
22:52>> Yeah, I'm going to have Puka in my rankings. And, you know, I I don't like I I make fun of the diversification
22:58people. Um, but this really to me looks like a spot to diversify where I I would have very close to 5050. Um, and so I
23:06did a live stream with the the folks over at FFPC and they were sort of flabbergasted when I said I might be taking Puka 103
23:17instead of Jamar Chase because on their format Puka goes like 106. Jamar Chase always goes 103. There's like very
23:25little people never do that. Uh, and they were like they were like how could that be the case? And I was like, well,
23:34um, Jamar Chase has outscored the Rams wide receiver one in only one out of the last five seasons. You can see that on
23:43the screen there. And they're like, "Oh, I didn't I didn't know that. Well, well, what about Puka's injury risk?" And I'm
23:51like, "Well, what about Joe Burrow's injury risk? The guy the guy is never healthy." And and so they were like, "Ah, yeah, maybe you're right. May maybe
24:00it should should be a lot closer than it is. Um and yeah, so our projections have have uh Puka, I have Puka, but again, it
24:09is it is really close. Uh another point in Puka's favor is uh he's led the league in yards per route run in
24:16back-to-back seasons. He averages 3.76 yards per route run. That's a full yard per route more than the next closest player. That's 1.38
24:27between him and Chase, which is the same difference as between Jamar Chase and the wide receiver 117, David Moore. Uh the guy is really good. Yeah. And so,
24:38you know, that's a concern is the Joe Burrow injury. The concern is, you know, maybe the the Bengals don't lead the
24:43league in dropbacks like they do every year. Maybe um I don't know. T Higgins is really good, too. Uh why it's it's a
24:525050 though or very close to it is is one thing I I've been talking about that no one else has talked about and so
24:59maybe it's just a nitpicky concern I I shouldn't be too worried about but up until the Devonte Adams injury Puka
25:09Nua was like never on the field in those 13 personnel snaps and then Adams goes down and Puka gets those snaps um
25:19primarily only really care about this inside the red zone, but it makes sense. And I've talked to film experts, uh, Ryan
25:27Pagnetti, Brett Wayfield, Max Tusano, who all say, "No, no, no. It makes sense for Puka not to be on the field and for
25:34Devonte Adams to be on the field in those red zone snaps when they're in 13 personnel, which were so effective for
25:42the Rams last year because he's the X, because he's the red zone ascod. his separation win rate inside the red zone
25:51last year was 2x that of any other player. And so if that's a real thing that carries over and it kind of makes
25:59sense that it would, I think it it it somewhat limits Puka's touchdown upside relative to a Jamar Chase. But again, it's it's really close to me and it does
26:09feel a little nitpicky.
26:12>> Can I make the bull case for Jamar Chase?
26:14>> Go ahead.
26:15>> Let me make the bull case for Jamar Chase. Mark Rebel is going to like that.
26:18>> Um, over the last two seasons, Chase is averaging 22.6 PPR points per game per Burough start. So, yeah, uh, Burrow does
26:29have injury risk for sure, but that 22.6 PPR points per game is a full point better than Nua. And the pass offense in
26:37terms of the Bengals volume has also been significantly better. Burrow leads all passers in in attempts. 37.7 over the last four seasons. Stafford's
26:47best two seasons have been like 35 pass attempts. He just had one last year and the first year he was with the Rams. So,
26:54I'm looking at this from like a volume perspective. I'm looking at this from a Burrow is just incredible perspective, bro. He's first and first in catchable
27:02throw rate over the last two seasons when he's been on the field. He's been incredible. And I think there's there's also like a touchdown upside debate that
27:09we could maybe quibble with with Puka.
27:12Last season in their 12, excuse me, 13 full games together. Bro, Devonte Adams had 24 end zone targets. Puka had three.
27:20>> Like that's a leg that's a legitimate that's a legitimate thing. Like Puka maybe does not have the touchdown upside that Jamar Chase has, especially if
27:28those trends continue. I do think we'll see those two things kind of narrow this season. And I think Puka, like there's
27:33just no way Adams has that level of end zone involvement. Again, that's going that's part of the thing that's going to
27:38regress, like I said, with Stafford's touchdown rate. But that is a legitimate quibble I have with Puka is that he just
27:44does not have the touchdown upside in my opinion that Jamar Chase does.
27:48>> Yeah. Yeah. So, so that's again why it's a 5050 to me. And, and you know, to argue against your over the last two
27:54years with Joe Burrow, Chase's fantasy points per game is higher. To argue against that, I would just say, you know, Puka has what, seven games over
28:03that sample with a snap share below 55% because, you know, you'd get hurt in the second quarter and he would leave that
28:10game. But again, that's that's also not not really a feather in his cap. That's again, yeah, uh greater injury risk than
28:19Jamar Chase where even if Joe Burrow is injuryprone, he balled out with Joe Flacco last year. Joe Flacco is probably the best backup quarterback the Bengals
28:27have had in a long time. So, so yeah, again, it it feels very much 5050 to me.
28:33Um, and that's probably how I'll play it. Probably diversify. But if I'm only in one league and I have that pick, the
28:41103, 104, uh, gun to my head, I I'd take Puka.
28:46>> Yeah, gun to my head, I would take Chase. But I'm with I'm with you, Scott.
28:50If you have 103s this year, take five Puka shares. Take five Chase shares, and you're going to be sleeping like a baby.
28:56I will say the final point I wanted to make on this debate is the Rams defense is just significantly better. I think
29:02there's a chance by by EPA this is like one of the top three defenses now.
29:05They've added Miles Garrett. I think the Bengals are actually going to be a little better on defense. I think Dexter Lawrence is incredible up front, but
29:11they're still not good. The secondary is still pretty bad. They're they are couple years away. Uh DJ Turner is awesome. Maybe the most underrated
29:19corner in football, but they really they're they're a pretty bad secondary beyond DJ Turner. Uh this is this is a Bengals team that's going to give up a
29:26ton of points in a way that I don't I don't necessarily think the Rams are. I think the Rams, you know, certainly
29:30could be in a lot of shootouts this year just because their offense is going to put up points and force the other team
29:35to score. But yeah, the Bengals, man, they're still they're still a bottom tier defense in my opinion. Not in the top 20 right now in the NFL uh in terms
29:44of the defense. We'll switch over and we'll make this a Brock Bowers versus Trey McBride debate. And this this is another shout out to Chris Wet. Our
29:50projections are here at Fantasy Points.
29:52He had Trey McBride ahead of Brock Bowers in projections last season and that was a contrarian take. Bowers was the consensus tight end won and and that
30:00ended up being right. McBride had just an incredible season just hoovering up targets from Jacobe Brassette. Uh some of it fueled by garbage time but most of
30:09it fueled by Trey McBride just being freaking incredible. The guy rolls out of bed and gets a 25% target share.
30:16Scott, this year we have it flipped here at Fantasy Points. We have Brock Bowers ahead of Trey McBride. Let's talk through some of the decisions behind
30:24that projection. I think the main one this year is Bower's target competition is just significantly less than Trey McBride. And like I just said, McBride,
30:32dude, he is the engine of that Cardinals offense. Marvin Harrison, Michael Wilson are just significantly more target competition than no disrespect to the
30:41ascot Jaylen Naylor, but he and Jaylen Naylor and and Trey Trey Tucker, these guys just are not the level of competition that the Cardinals have. I
30:49also think that there's legitimate downside risk with the Cardinals this season. I know Brassette just got the $15 million bag, Scott, but they this
30:56team could tank at some point leading us to Carson Beck or, you know, Gardner Menchu by the middle of the year.
31:01Fernando Mendoza and Kurt Cousins are just a significantly higher floor of quarterbacks than the Cardinals. I'm all I'm all about Bowers this season. I
31:11think he's in terms of talent, he's one of the most, you know, talented players that we've had come into the NFL just in
31:17terms of his prospect profile. And then he's balled out in the NFL. In his first two years, only Rob Gronowski has
31:24averaged more PPR points per game among tight ends in their first two seasons than Bowowers. And Bowowers is legitimately close, like two or three
31:30ten of a point behind Gronk in points per game. So Scott, let's have the Bowowers versus McBride debate. How close is it this year? And where do you
31:37land on these two players?
31:40Um I I think it's fairly close honestly it's I mean that's what it looks like according to our projections. Uh love
31:48Bowers like really believe in the talent. U but to make the devil's advocate argument the lack of target competition is a flaw not a not a perk
31:57when it comes to Bowowers. According to Brett Whitefield, our our film expert, he's saying, you know, it's like really easy to shut down a tight end when he's
32:06your number one receiver than it is a wide receiver. You just you just put a quarterback on the guy and that's what
32:12teams are going to do. Brett's been saying like, oh, if they trade for a Chris Olive, Brock Bowers is going to
32:18break records. But, you know, with the supporting cast they have right now, this is actually not a great setup for him. Uh, and then Trey McBride just
32:26scored the third most fantasy points by any tight end in NFL history. Uh, his 18.6 fantasy points per game or he he
32:36had over a 100 fantasy points, more than the next closest tight end, which is just like the most insane cheat code
32:42there is. Uh, he did all this with uh Jacobe Brassette, who's like the tight end whisperer. As soon as Brassette was
32:50named the starter, Johnny Proctor and I on our DFS show were like, "We're playing Trey McBride DFS every single week." Uh because he's targeted tight
32:59ends at the highest rate in the league every year of his career dating back to college. Like college, like college quarterbacks don't even target tight
33:07ends. And he was leading the FBS in in tight end target rate. Uh and then, you know, with Kobe Fleiner, you know, just
33:14peppering him with targets back in the day. Uh, and so it just looks like this, you know, amazing setup. Uh, maybe
33:21there's some concern you lose Drew Pig, a new play caller. Um, you know, this is one of the most, you know,
33:30pass heavy teams of the decade, uh, if not the most. And so, you know, really benefited from garbage time. But, uh,
33:38the new head coach, Michael, that that's actually his his MO, too. um when he was with the Jets, if you remove Zack Wilson
33:46games where it was just like Mike White and Joe Flacco and whoever else, they actually would have led the league over
33:51that span in passing yards per game. Um and so yeah, that's the that's the argument. Like there's like I don't know
33:57why there's stink on McBride's name after the year he had, but it really does seem like there's some stink on his
34:05name.
34:07I think it's because most people are viewing this kind of similarly in that a lot of his volume was fueled by garbage
34:15time. Our guy Rich Reebar, he put out a great stat earlier this off season and basically was saying that Trey McBride
34:21ran like 22 games worth of routes, which is just it's not going to it's not going to repeat. I mean, he ran significantly
34:28more routes than the tight end two last season. That's just something that's really hard to bank on and something that certainly will regress back to the
34:35base rate. Um, I think that's a part of it and the part of the stink too is like dude Jacobe Brassette has been at a
34:41below a like I know the volume has been good but he's he's a below average quarterback by by yards per pass attempt
34:45by EPA drop back. He's been a below average quarterback. There's some legitimate you know legitimate reasons to be excited about the Raiders between
34:52you know you know Mendoza coming in Kurt Cousins being you know just better. I think it's in terms of a floor razor for
34:59this offense than Gino Smith was. Uh let's talk through kind of the the opportunity costcott of these tight ends. Brock >> Bowers real quick. I
35:06>> Yeah.
35:07>> Why I have in my overall rankings right now I have Bowers nine spots ahead of Trey McBride. You know, just making the
35:16argument I made, you you think it would be closer. The reason the the main concern is this is a team that probably
35:25is hoping to get Arch Manning next year, right? And so there's a very real chance we get Carson Beck, who >> Brett Whitefield had a day three grade
35:33on starting all throughout November and December, in which case, yeah, this is this is a nightmare scenario for Trey McBride. So, um, yeah, I I do have Brock
35:44Bowers as the tight end one and, you know, a nine spot difference means it's really not that close. Um, so yeah.
35:52Yeah, let's talk about uh opportunity.
35:55>> Yeah. So, Bowowers 14.3 projected PPR points per game. McBride's like in that 13 and a half range. So, we're projecting a pretty significant drop off
36:03in fantasy points per game. But, there is a significant opportunity cost to these early round tight ends. Scott, we can look back over the last five years.
36:11basically 70% or so, 65 70% of like the the best values, league winning values at tight end come past 100 overall.
36:21Really, the last two seasons, the only early round strategy at tight end that's worked is just draft the hell out of
36:27Trey McBride. That certainly could be the case again this year. The guy is just incredible. And you know, now he's going even cheaper middle of the third
36:33round. Uh Brock Bowers is basically going in between like the wide receiver seven and wide receiver eight in fantasy points per game or excuse me in ADP. And
36:42I think that makes sense. Over the last two seasons, McBride is, you know, roughly wide receiver seven, wide receivers eight. So we say, "Hey Bowers,
36:49this is like his his breakout season.
36:51Makes sense to take him around Nico Collins, AJ Brown. Structurally, Scott, how are you how are you approaching Bowowers and McBride verse the receivers
37:01in that pocket?" And I think, you know, secondarily, it also kind of depends on your first round pick. Like if you get a
37:07if you get Christian McCaffrey in the middle of the first round or somehow Browers falls you at the two-3 turn after you took Jamir Gibbs or Bejian
37:14Robinson, like if you feel comfortable with your ability to like outdraft your opponents, you know, receiver in the middle rounds, I think it makes it makes
37:21it more advantageous in my opinion.
37:24>> Yeah. Um it is going to sound like a copout, but it's not a copout. It's uh Oh, I dude.
37:31Brock Bowowers is almost mustd in an 18 team league at this ADP. In a 10 team league, I would really try and grab him.
37:42In a 12 team league, I I have no interest. It's just kind of the way the the game works. And also, especially
37:47this year where there's so much value in the middle to late rounds, it's it's kind of shocking, especially at the wide
37:54receiver position. um that I think if you follow my draft guide and you are in an eight team 10 team league and yeah
38:02definitely get Bowowers go ahead and yeah honestly get get Josh Allen too because uh that's when you know at the one onesie positions a positional
38:12scarcity matters a little bit less and you really want those highest end producers. Um, but in a 12 team, no, I I
38:21don't like the opportunity cost in foregoing a running back or a wide receiver. That's really the the league winning positions that that matter. So,
38:29um, yeah, and there's and there's a lot of there's a lot of great tight end value late uh, in just about every
38:37format, too. So, uh, 12 team league, I I I would wind up with very little exposure to Bowowers, McBride, Loveland,
38:47Warren at all. So, I'm with Scott that the more teams in your league, you know, decreases the scarcity of the onesie
38:56positions. I also think it depends on your league settings, too. If you start in a if you're in a league where you
39:01only start, you know, two receivers, two running backs, and one flex, then yeah, the points over, you know, average that Bowowers or McBride or Josh Allen give
39:10you matters significantly more. But if you're in a deep league with multiple receiver spots, you're going to be able to make up for any lost fantasy points
39:17at tight end and and really over the last five or six years, tight end scoring after the top two or three,
39:23Scott, in points per game, it's been very very long and flat. like you can always find somebody who's in between that like 10, 12, 13 points per game
39:31pocket after the top tight ends. And like I said, it's usually six or seven players in that bucket. So if you're in
39:37a in a league where you have multiple receiver spots, let's say you start three receivers and two flexes PPR leagues, that increases the viability of
39:44of receivers to begin with compared to half PPR leagues, then yeah, I I'm I'm with you. I'm a lot less interested in
39:50some of these elite tight ends. But the shallower the league, the more interested that you should be in Bowowers verse McBride. Trey McBride is
39:57now going in the middle of the third round though. He's going around T.
39:59Higgins and Chris Olive. And Scott, I'm I'm all in on T. Higgins this year. The guy's wide receiver five when Joe
40:04Burrow's healthy over the last two seasons. Uh I think this like I was just saying with the Bengals pass offense, man, it's just like so locked in. Feels
40:11really really good in terms of projection. But you know, McBride is now going in a pocket where you can draft him around the wide receiver 12, 13 or
40:1814. I think that does make him pretty appealing there in the middle of the third round regardless if it's like a 10
40:24or a 12 team league.
40:26>> Yeah, Scott, this has been awesome, man. Going through the top projected players by position. Scott, you've got your draft
40:36guide coming out here on Monday, August the 3rd. You'll break down each player and each of your favorite picks at each
40:45ADP. It should be awesome. Again, code fantasy. Save yourself 10% off at checkout at fantasypoints to get Scott's draft guide. You can go to
40:54fantasypoints.com/plans or hit the QR code on the screen if you're listening to us on YouTube bottom right corner. Scott got any uh interest in leaking an Exodia
41:05play for the people? Any interest?
41:07>> I'm not a man of the people. I'm a man of [laughter] the paid subscribers. So uh yeah, Monday draft guy drops. Uh I
41:14honestly think it's the best one I've ever written. I feel like really good. I feel like I'm in a state of zen.
41:19>> I feel like you started this one early.
41:21You started this one earlier than you typically do. Based on >> I did and I'm so glad I I did. I I feel
41:26like I'm in a state of zen where I could just like like a Neo in the matrix where I could just see
41:31>> I I don't think I've ever seen things so so crystal clearly before. Um, you know, hopefully hopefully all the plays work
41:38out, but um, right right now today, I think ADP hasn't been this soft since 2019, which was like a historic year for
41:47me where I was, you know, all in on McCaffrey and Lamar and Mark Andrews and kind of everyone who went off. I blame
41:54baseball. I think baseball has just like rotted people's brains and just like is really bad and it's just a totally different game from reddraft start sit
42:03and uh it's made things really easy on us or what happens every year is is all the Exodia guys jump like three rounds
42:11of value by September which hopefully that doesn't happen.
42:15>> There will be some some uh some players moving up for sure. I think Scott, a part of it, you touched on it earlier in
42:20the show, a part of the reason it feels easier this year is just because one, running backs have been pushed into the
42:25second round, uh, which has pushed receiver back and in particular on sleeper, ESPN, and Yahoo, we typically get less sharp ADP in general. And that
42:35receiver group, man, is just so good.
42:36Like from rounds three through five, three through six, it just feels it feels easier than ever to build out some really strong receiver rooms.
42:44>> Yeah.
42:47>> All right. All right. Well, that has been an excellent show. Top score at each position. Scott, excellent work as always. Tomorrow, we have an awesome
42:56show planned for you guys. We'll have our new hire, Jeff Mueller. He's our new injury expert here at Fantasy Points.
43:01We're going to go through all of the most important injury topics that you'll need to know for your drafts. And then I
43:08will have JJ Zacharesa, Mr. Late round quarterback, come on the show as well.
43:12That pod will drop on the YouTube feed later on Thursday. and on our pod feed on Apple, Spotify, wherever you get your
43:20podcasts. Scott, awesome show for Scott.
43:24I'm Graham. We'll see you guys at the top of the leaderboards.
