0:13School is in session again live with another School of Scott here on the Fantasy Points YouTube. I'm Brett Whitefield, your host, along with my
0:21co-host, Mr. CEO Scott Barrett himself.
0:25Scott, how are you doing today, buddy?
0:27>> I'm doing great. That's a That's a great intro. You've really come a long way since the days of >> Bill. For for those who don't know,
0:34there was like one the first time I feel like it took 15 takes, but uh man, that like literally 10 out of 10 intro. Great
0:42job.
0:42>> Thank you. Are you going to say that every week I do this?
0:45>> I don't know. Are you going to keep crushing these intros? Because that was that was impressive. You brought the energy. I'm fired up. I'm excited.
0:52>> Yeah. Rewind. Two three years ago when we first started film verse analytics. I was I was new to the hosting game.
0:58>> Yeah.
0:58>> But it's been years now, Scott. I have my own show that I do two episodes a week of that I host and do the intro.
1:03It's like riding a bike for me at this point. I don't I don't need the attab boy every time it comes off good. You
1:08know what I mean? Like I'm going to nail this every week. All right.
1:10>> All right. All right. Let's do it.
1:12>> All right. Cool. So, we're doing another AMA. Ask us anything. Um Scott, a lot of these questions we got pre-show are are
1:19fantasy relevant. So, I'm probably going to lean on you heavily for some of these, but I obviously will still contribute my film takes and and stuff
1:26like that. So, but we wanted to kick this off with a little bit of a rant on beatw writers. I don't know if you want
1:32to call it that, so to speak, but Scott, what's on your mind about beat writers?
1:36This is an itch you need to scratch, apparently. So, what is it? What's going on?
1:39>> Yeah, I I was I've been thinking about this. And so I think my edge over everyone else is in terms of my rankings
1:48and and like their historical accuracy and whatnot is really just like a simple process thing. It's, you know, as I'm doing my rankings, which I'm working on
1:57right now, probably 99% done. I already shared it with a few subscribers who have their drafts before my draft guide comes out August 3rd. But as I'm working
2:07through my rankings, it's just like I log everything. You know, I'm good with data. So like I need everything to be a
2:12data point that I could look back to and measure. And so like I'm okay Jamar Chase versus Puka Nua, this feels really
2:21tight for me. Okay, the tiebreaker's this. Uh I'm also factoring in this and this. And so I'm logging all of this and
2:30then the draft guide comes out, the season happens, the season ends, it's January, it's February and I go through what I call my self flagagillation
2:41session where it's for like two weeks, three weeks I really beat myself up. I really rub my nose in my own mistakes. I
2:51look back at the draft guide and it's like here's what you got wrong. How can you learn from this? And I'll like for
2:59those you I think you know is like January, February like I'm in an awful mood. I'm not fun to be around. I'm like
3:05literally depressed, you know, because like you know I I take this too seriously. But um actually this past year was probably like the best it's
3:13ever been. I usually very hard on myself. This time I was like actually no. Like you know good process, bad results here. Good process, mediocre
3:22results here. Uh, I was actually pretty pleased with with uh, you know, looking back over the draft guide. [snorts] But anyway, yeah. And so as I'm doing that,
3:30I look at, you know, okay, why did I make this decision? Uh, because this ended up not being right. You know, I
3:38should have went Tyler Warren over Coloulston Lovelin or something like that. And so I'll leave myself notes in January, February that I'll circle back
3:47on as I'm doing my rankings in July like, "Hey, don't forget this." or hey, you know, you went a little too deep
3:53into the weeds on the play caller stuff.
3:55You know, pump the brakes a little bit.
3:57And so, a note I had this past year, it's also a note I had the year before that, and I think two years before that
4:03as well, is it's like momento. It's like a tattoo sprawled on my wrist. It's ignore the beatwriters. The beat writers are freaking worthless. And like I know
4:14this sounds like peak hubris where it's like really you think you know more than the guy whose job it is to cover the
4:20team. Uh I wouldn't be saying this if I didn't just like write this to myself multiple years in a row that like I my
4:27rankings would have been better off if I just kind of ignored the beat writers.
4:31And I really think this is the case Brett. I think like the these guys are awful when it comes to projecting
4:38playing time. They have absolutely no I mean the exception is like an Aaron Wilson, a Dan Dugen.
4:44>> Those guys are awesome, but like I feel like 97% of beats are are kind of worthless.
4:50>> Scott, >> worse than worthless.
4:52>> How long have I been telling you this?
4:53>> I know. [laughter] I don't know. That's why I wanted to bring it up is because you've been all over this. Yeah.
4:59>> Yeah. I It's It's tough. So, we live in this content driven culture where like if you're a full-time job is to to be a
5:08beatw writer for a team, you have to churn that machine no matter what's going on at practice, right? And we know
5:14positivity sells more than negativity.
5:17>> Unless you're on sports talk radio, it's a totally different animal. But for beat writers, it's like, okay, cool. They go
5:22sit down and watch practice. They see a a fourth string guy or a fourth receiver look good. They're going to write a
5:27story about it. And the problem is is like you just pointed out, their expertise isn't winning fantasy leagues.
5:33Their expertise isn't projecting playing time or even snaps or opportunity. It's just like, hey, this is a fun story. I'm going to go talk to the player and I'm
5:41going to write about it. And then we have all these aggregators that then take that information and they pump it up for the hype train because we live in
5:48this constant content machine that that constantly has to get churned. Has to be new information every day. There has to be little blurbs about every player.
5:57when you go on sleeper.com and you click on a player's name, we got to have our, you know, four most recent blurbs
6:02written about them and that like that's the world we live in. And so for most teams, their beat writers, they're they're really not football experts at
6:10all. They're journalist majors who ended up covering the NFL. There are exceptions, of course. I think of like the Detroit Lions have like a Dave
6:16Berquette and a Justin Rogers and a Jeremy Ryman. You know, Justin Rogers knows the game of football, but he also stays in his lane. He's not trying to
6:24win you fantasy leagues and he's uh Dave Briquette doesn't really he's not an X's in those guys so he doesn't try to be
6:30one and I think there are good beat writers out there that kind of just stay in their lane. They're they're really
6:35well established at what they do but for the most part a lot of these guys are just playing to the constant content
6:41machine that we're in. And so you really just can fade the noise. It's just a lot of noise. It's a lot of fluff. I think
6:48my film study, your analytic stuff, that's way more predictive than what exew writer says from watching a practice. By the way, they're not even
6:55allowed to watch most practices. Do does everyone know that?
6:58>> Yes.
6:59>> So, they >> It's a new thing, right? A rule change in the last year or two.
7:03>> Yeah. They for during the season stuff especially, they get to watch the first 15 minutes of practice >> and that's it.
7:09>> And that's it.
7:10>> Wow.
7:10>> So, whatever you're taking away from that is completely diminished.
7:15>> Exactly. It's like, hey, we're featuring Taesm Hill this week. Let's do it after the first 15 minutes so this doesn't
7:21leak, >> right? And then for training camp, so like for teams that have new coaches and new coordinators and new personnel, like
7:28the first few weeks of training camp is install. They're literally installing base looks. And just because a team puts, here's a classic one. Every year
7:36there's we get reports of teams using two running back sets. Oh, Jir Gibbs and David Montgomery were on the field together for like the first 30 minutes
7:43of practice. Yeah, it's just they're installing a package. We have no idea how much that package will get used, right? It's like, hey, we want to have
7:50this package available to us in the case in the event we want to use it. We've never practiced this package before. So,
7:56for the first 30 minutes of practice, we're going to run 10 plays out of this package. We have no clue how often
8:01they're going to use that package. And it's just and the beatw writers especially don't know. So, yeah, I there's a lot like so much beat writer
8:10stuff gets pumped up. And it's not to slam them. I think they have a job. they have to do and I respect it, but like
8:16the fantasy crowd just continues to elevate what these guys say like it's gospel and a lot of times it's just completely worthless.
8:22>> That's exactly right. And School of Scot listeners have heard me reference this quote a million times. Charlie Munger, show me the incentive, I'll show you the
8:30outcome. And so it's very much like they write what their readers want to hear, right? Like if you're a you're a Saints
8:38fan, you don't want to say like, "Hey, actually I think this is like just a 500 ball club. You know, they're going to
8:44win 50% of their games." Um, and so like or like Buffalo Bills, you don't want to hear like, "Hey, this was a desperation
8:51move. Brandon Bean's an idiot. They overpaid on DJ Moore, who's probably watched." It's, "Hey, the Bills finally have their Stfan Diggs again and they're
9:00gonna smash." And so, like, it's always this positive bent. And these guys are basically like in my mind like glorified fan bloggers. Like I don't want to throw
9:11anyone under the bus, but John Shipley is like one of the biggest like fantasy heroes. Like everyone in the fantasy community loves. Shipley who does the
9:20Jaguars beat. We got into it a number of years ago. It was Doug Peterson's last year. He blocked me. we got into like
9:27this this debate where like I was tweeting negatively about Trevor Lawrence and you know he just came at me like a fan you know and and I have it on
9:36good authority that like hey I was dead right Trevor Lawrence at that time at the end of uh the Doug Peterson tenure
9:43was like the slimmest sea hair away from getting benched and you know according to you know Shibly it was oh it's none
9:50of it's his fault it's all the receivers it's blah blah blah um and like he's this guy's going viral. I'm seeing like
9:5750 roto world blurbs. Uh, hey, Ball Knowledge Fantasy Points AI. We have a news feed. You're going to see a bunch
10:05of Shipley reports there. If you if you go to the balln knowledge AI um Zayn Danani who's doing an amazing job with
10:12you know covering all the the important news one of our guys a ton of you know shiply reports but it's like you read
10:20what he's saying and it's like hey I don't have any sources here but this is just my opinion based off of last year
10:27is that Parker Washington's going to lead the league in lead the team in targets. Parker Washington's going to get a new contract this off season. It's
10:35like, yeah, that's like exactly what I think. And are we really just like moving off like going off of the same
10:40information, which was just, hey, he looked awesome in the last four weeks last year, you know, he's he's better than his round six rookie contract. And
10:49yeah, it's it just like you're taking like someone's opinion, which like is really almost no different than like Chris Wex doing projections or that's
10:58the other part of it. Like I don't know if you remember two years ago so much was made of Tyler Algier versus Bjan
11:05Robinson where some beat was like you know I think Tyler Alier Alier is going to get 14 to 16 touches per game
11:13like like that oh okay so Bejian Robinson should actually be going in round seven instead of round one. I like replied to him I'm like I'm like so how
11:21many do you think Bejian's going to get?
11:22He's like I don't know 28 touches per game. It's like, oh, okay. So, you think the Falcons are going to run more than
11:28any team since the 1920s, >> right?
11:31>> Um, and like the they're just like the a mental block when it comes to projections. Um, and so like yeah, there
11:40it requires a lot of like tea leaf re a lot of like reading between the lines and and even then it's just like again I
11:47think we'd be better off just kind of ignoring 95% of this.
11:51>> Yeah, spot on. Um, should we get into some of these questions now, Scott?
11:55>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Let's do it.
11:56>> Oh, you wanted to talk best rookie tight ends from last year.
12:00>> Uh, yeah. I mean, it's just Yeah. As I was working through my rankings, um, I I just wanted to hear if you thought
12:05anything differently than what I sort of expected you to think. Tell me >> how. So, I said coming out, last year's
12:15tight end class was historically great.
12:18It was an all-time great tight end class. You had Tyler Warren who had the most yards from scrimmage of any power
12:28conference tight end in college football history. You had Harold Fannon Jr. with the most receiving yards of any FBS tight end in college football history.
12:38You had Colston Lovelin with the best yardage market share of any tight end in 50 years. you had a Ronda Gatston
12:45who there was some questions of whether he's a receiver or tight end, but >> um historically great age adjusted yards per team pass attempt in at least one of
12:55his seasons. And so those four guys I really kind of circled as like these guys are special and >> all of them to varying degrees had
13:06really impressive rookie seasons. And so I would like to know where you sit on those four tight ends and how bullish
13:16you are on each of them heading into their sophomore years.
13:19Oh, that's such a good question because I like you, they all were in incredibly impressive in different ways.
13:26>> Yeah.
13:27>> I think the best rookie tape period for me was probably Harold Fannon Jr.
13:31>> Whoa. Did not expect that.
13:34>> Yeah.
13:34>> Wow.
13:35>> Here's that high on him, right?
13:38>> Well, I had massive questions about athleticism, man.
13:40>> Yeah.
13:41>> And just the the translatability of what he was asked to do in college to the pro game. I mean, I I still had a day two
13:46grade on him. I I was higher on him than the league was. What he go He ended up going third round.
13:52>> Yeah, I think so.
13:53>> Yeah, I think I still had a two on him, but um right right in line really with what the NFL thought, but man, this guy
14:00is the hardest dude in the league to tackle.
14:03>> There's there's not a >> the hardest dude in the league to I mean, >> there's not a scarier player in the open
14:08field to come across than Harold Fannon Jr.
14:11>> George KD levels. He's Tucker Craft levels. vintage George KD and probably better than Tucker Craft.
14:18>> Wow.
14:18>> The the tape is insane. I mean, the the data speaks for itself. The yards after catch, the force missed tackles were
14:23insanely high. But you actually watch the nature of those force missed tackles, they're vicious. They're brutal. There's no corner in the league
14:31that's going to want to come up and tackle that dude. They are scared of that man. Safeties are scared of that
14:36man. So, like, yeah, I I think for for the way they used him Oh, also the route running was better than I thought it was
14:43going to be, Scott. Like, I I thought, you know, the crisp crispiness getting in and out of his brakes was was far
14:50beyond what I thought he was capable of considering the anatomical limitations I thought he had. Um, and I thought the play speed was perfectly fine. You know,
14:57I was worried about the athleticism and the the overall juice, but honestly, the play speed looked good. I thought he looked fast. He looked athletic and one
15:05of the hardest dudes to tackle in the league. And and that's the in the too high era we're living in, Scott. That's
15:10the trait you really want for these tight ends is that run after catch ability. Um that's why Tucker Craft is so dominant. That's why George KD that's
15:17how he carved out a role early in his career. And KD's become a fantastic route runner and separator as well. And
15:23the scheme goes a long way for him too.
15:24But man, that that run after catch ability that really is the differentiating mark right now for tight ends breaking out. And yeah, I think
15:31Fannon Jr. had the best tape as a rookie. That said, I think Coulson Loveland's going to be the best of the
15:36bunch long term.
15:37>> I think he's got a more complete skill set. I think he's good after the catch, but he's also a dynamic route runner.
15:42>> Insane ball skills, catch radius, you know, catch ability, stuff like that, separation ability.
15:47>> Hey, hold on one second. So, I I get a graphic on screen and this is probably my worst take according to my followers.
15:56Certainly according to Ryan Heath. He Ryan hates this take, but it's just like looking at ADP, Coloulston Lovelin goes three rounds earlier than Harold Fannon
16:06and some formats, four rounds earlier.
16:08And it's just like, you know, I'm I'm not saying take Fannon over Lovelin. I'm I'm just saying like I like I like
16:15logical consistencies and this seems, you know, inconsistent is everyone's like Coulson Lovelin's last four games.
16:22Coulson Love's last four games. I'm like, well, if you just look at last four games, really last 16 quarters, cuz they both left their final games with an
16:31injury. Last 16 quarters versus last 16 quarters. Fan in with like much worse quarterback play, everything. 18.2 fantasy points per game to Lovelin's 20
16:41fantasy. And so it's just like, hey, you know who was also freaking sick in his last four games? It was Harold Fannon,
16:47who you could get at a three or four round discount. And like Loveland, there's some concerns there where, you know, we've talked about it where over
16:56those four games that everyone's pointing at is Chicago was outlierishly pass heavy with extreme negative game script. Um, but all other games you
17:07really saw like uh Cole KT cannibalizing Lovelin's playing time and upside. And so, yeah, it's just it's just kind of weird how everyone's in love with with
17:18Loveland and Fannon's like, "Ah, he's a good backup plan if I miss out on him."
17:22But you're saying, "Hey, the tape was incredible. This is like a special talent for a guy who again had the best
17:31tight end season in FBS history. Uh, and so I like this. This this feels interesting and spicy to me." Well, so
17:39for fantasy, the the question you have to answer is like what offense is more sustainable for that guy to continue breaking out?
17:46>> Oh, I mean, yeah.
17:47>> Yeah. The Bears seem to have a better ecosystem, but the, you know, quarterback, play caller, stuff like that, >> but the Browns are also building from
17:56scratch. So, like maybe Harold Fannon Jr. is already the guy there. I don't know.
18:01>> Well, if you listen to the GM, that's basically what he's saying is like, yeah, we want to we want to build the
18:06ship around Fannon. uh you know, our young guys, we have a lot of belief in him, blah blah. And hey, they got rid of
18:11David and Jooku. Um but yeah, I mean certainly the the Ben Johnson offense uh that doesn't have DJ Moore in it or
18:20Media Zakias anymore is is more exciting, but again there's like a four round discount, so you you kind of have to
18:25>> right >> bake that in. Um what about Tyler Warren? What about Aronda Gatston? What about Terren Ferguson? What about those
18:33guys?
18:35Well, let's hit Aronda first because he's kind of a an odd one. Yeah, is a big power slot receiver and that's kind
18:42of the way the Chargers use him and and the snap share route share reflects that where like when they were in obvious
18:48rundowns they just couldn't play him.
18:50He's not good enough in the run game and they really kind of refused to live in 12 personnel last year and I don't
18:55really know why. They wouldn't play Gatsson and Dley together or Gatson and their other tight ends together. It was super strange. So, he was really
19:03dependent on game script. He was really dependent on them, you know, needing to throw the ball, which happened plenty.
19:10Let's let's, you know, not be shy about that. But this offseason is troubling for Gatson because they bring in Charlie Kolar, who I think is a very underrated
19:19player. I think he's a really good complete every down type tight end. And then they also bring in David and Jooku
19:25as a kind of a yak threat. So, they they can mix up these personnel groupings.
19:29They're also going to use a fullback in this offense a little bit more. It's like I don't know how much more
19:34Gatsson's going to play. So, we may have already seen the ceiling for fantasy for Gatsson that was like week 10 through
19:40week 14 or something like that. That stretch that he had where the offense is kind of running through him. That may
19:44have been the peak for him for for now anyways. And so, also talk about Mike McDaniel and the fact that he's never
19:50valued the tight end position yet he's got a tight end room that's rich. I don't know. It's a really strange kind
19:55of thing to figure out here. So, I'm a little out on Gadson right now. I think Kolar is going to be their every down
20:00tight end and then you're going to see Gatsson have to find those spots again like he did last year where he might be
20:05a pass down only player or a big slot type and and can't really get, you know, the the workload we need for him to be
20:11consistently fantasy relevant. Um, as far as Warren goes, I mean, Warren has the run after catch gene as well that Harold Fannon does. He's a monster. Um,
20:20you he's viable in the run game as well.
20:22He's a fantastic blocker, every down player, and he was trending towards having a really good rookie season as well, right? And then Daniel Jones goes
20:29down and the whole thing kind of falls apart. Um, where would his season have ranked historically though if if the whole offense kind of stayed on the
20:37course it was on?
20:38>> Yeah, I had a great graphic actually.
20:40So, so up until uh Daniel Jones fractured his fibula, they had to have a custom 3D printed brace
20:49that's never existed before uh for him to play the next two weeks where he really struggled and then he missed a
20:56bunch of time. But up until that initial injury, I think it's like the first six or seven or eight weeks, uh he his
21:03numbers on a per route per target basis were indistinguishable from rookie season Brock Bowers. So, he looked incredible. He was the tight end too in
21:12fantasy um behind only Trey McBride. And then he's he's catching passes from a 47year-old literal grandfather Philip
21:21Rivers. Um and so yeah, he's another player I think we're sleeping on, another incredibly productive, highly accomplished collegiate tight end. And
21:31so again, yeah, I think this is a really special tight end class. And one thing we know about tight ends is historically
21:37like they they struggle as rookies and then you have that sophomore year breakout where if you plot it um you know age curves, career curves, it's
21:46it's like rookie season you're 40% baseline, sophomore season you're like 110% baseline and it's, you know, this amazing year where there's a ton of
21:56value. Um so yeah.
21:59>> Yeah. I want to hit uh Mark Lambert's comment here. He said Colar is a blocking tight end. I don't get this
22:05taking away from Gatson. I don't know who told you Kar is a blocking tight end. That's just not true. He was a
22:09dominant passcatching tight end in college. He was drafted ahead of Isaiah likely as a passcatching tight end with the Baltimore Ravens and and suffered an
22:17injury his first year of training camp and then likely kind of passed him on the depth chart and he was stuck behind,
22:23you know, very good tight end Mark Andrews and a and a very viable tight end too. and and Isaiah likely. I think
22:29Colar is a good blocking tight end for sure, but he was a dominant pass catcher. Producer Trey knows all about this. This is a clone to the bone right
22:36here in and Charlie Kolar. So, I I think people are absolutely sleeping on I think he had he had like 2,200 receiving
22:43yards and 23 touchdowns in three years at Iowa State. Like he's like an absolute dog as a rece one of the
22:49highest um catch rates ever for a tight end as well at the college rank. So, I I'm a big Charlie Colar guy. I don't
22:56think he's a quote unquote blocking tight end.
23:00>> Yeah, there's that there's that Brock Bowers versus Tyler Warren comparison.
23:04Yeah, look at that. 2.11 yards per route run. Alltime great numbers for a rookie and Warm is actually better than that.
23:11La last tight end we'll get to.
23:13>> Uh do you have any leans on Terrence Ferguson? The kind of unique way he was used as like a deep threat tight end. Do
23:20you have haven't really seen that for a long time? Greg Olsen was sort of like that, like a a more a rare deep threat
23:27for a tight end. But, uh, you have Beats, again, we we're talking about how we're kind of throwing a lot of shade at
23:33Beats, but they're saying, uh, he could be the Rams wide receiver three this year, Terren Ferguson.
23:39>> I mean, they they invested a lot of draft capital into a receiving only type tight end. I feel like having a plan for
23:46him to get on the field would be good, but uh I don't know, man. And then they went and drafted Max Cla in a very
23:51similar slot, right? A second round pick. So yeah, I mean Ferguson has juice for days. That's what he was awesome at
23:57at Oregon. I think for me it's like Shawn McVey is so unpredictable with what the new wrinkle he's going to add,
24:05right? So 13 personnel was the wrinkle last year. I think they were like 30% 13 personnel. It's like yeah, Ferguson's going to play in every one of those and
24:14get all the deep shots out of that look.
24:16Sure. Yeah, he could be he could be their wide receiver three. I'm not really counting on it, though. So, >> I'm I'm looking at uh Terren Ferguson's
24:24head shot. He looks like uh Scott Farcus from A Christmas Story.
24:30But, uh but yeah, I uh also he like I didn't really love him as a prospect coming out, but I think, you know, he's
24:36kind of aged a little bit more gracefully because, you know, you look at Kenyan Sadi's numbers, he was actually more productive than Kenyan
24:43Sadik in the same offense back in 2024.
24:46They also have um another tight end on the team who's supposed to go round one next year.
24:51>> He'll be a top 20 pick. Yeah.
24:53>> Yeah. So, uh yeah, that's that kind of helps me uh get a better gauge on these sophomore tight ends, which honestly
25:01like might be one of the, you know, most important questions of the year. Um >> certainly a lot of excitement surrounding uh a number of these names.
25:10Why don't you hit us with some of the the fan questions?
25:13>> Yeah, let's go. Let's go one from Pops.
25:15Papa Dubs, Greg Whitefield, my dad.
25:17>> Shut up.
25:18>> So, who has a higher PPR dynasty ceiling? And does your rank differ for this year? I'm assuming by this year he
25:23means reddraft, >> Jaylen McMillan from Tampa Bay, Parker Washington, Jordan Addison, or Jaden Higgins? This is a fun cluster to talk
25:30about, right? I think Graham and I did our wide receiver rankings and Addison was outside the top 50. We got a lot of
25:35push back about that, but this uh this group in general has a lot I feel like they're all ceiling plays. Scott, what
25:42do you think here?
25:44Um, so I don't I don't know that I agree. So we could start with Jaden Higgins, who you're very high on.
25:50>> Yeah, >> I'm a little worried Tankell might not be dead. Tank might still be alive and might might be cutting into uh Jaden
25:59Higgins breakout potential, but but I have said multiple times I'm going to be higher on Higgins than Consensus, which is really just deferring to your uh X's
26:08and O's brilliance, your your film game.
26:11Jordan Addison I'm not high on at all, especially not in reddraft because, you know, he's he's behind Justin Jefferson on the target totem pole. And then
26:20whether it's JJ McCarthy or Kyler Murray, it's it's not really a good setup. You know, Kyler Murray's only ever had one wide receiver finish top 24
26:29in fantasy points throughout his entire career. JJ McCarthy probably even worse than that. And so it's really down to T McMillan and Parker Washington for me.
26:40Who has the higher dynasty ceiling?
26:42>> Wait, was that T McMillan? That was Jaylen McMillan, I thought.
26:46>> Oh, >> Tampa Bay receiver. Ted's too obviously better than those guys.
26:50>> No, no. I feel like T Jaylen McMillan's too obviously like below everyone else.
26:55>> Dad, if you're watching, please clarify what McMillan you mean. Yeah, we got to go firstname basis here, you know? So,
27:01so I'll say if it's T McMillan, I think is like legitimately like a fringe top 12 wide receiver in the league already.
27:08>> Yeah.
27:08>> Um it's just Young, >> he plays with Bryce Young who stinks and is short and [laughter] he's awful. Uh and so like that's what's
27:17holding him back. We're like if he went down and like dude, our guy King Hayes, you know, was was quarterback, like I'd
27:24legitimately be bullish or Andy Dalton if if Dalton's still there. I don't even know if he is. um way more bullish. But
27:31yeah, it's just with Bryce Young that's like oh 198 passing yards even if he has this elite yardage market share which he
27:38did uh you know that's not going to get it done and uh you know really good rookie season despite battling with a
27:45ton of injuries that people are kind of losing sight on. It's really that quarterback situation which luckily for Dynasty is like they they can't have
27:53Bryce Young starting next year. Right.
27:55Right. There there's no way they give him a contract extension. Right. like it's that bad.
28:00>> And then with Parker Washington, like I feel like I talk about Parker Washington every episode. He is one of the most,
28:06you know, boomer bust players in drafts right now where there's like a very real scenario where I see him busting. It's,
28:15hey, BTJ was just hurt last year. Let's not lose sight of what he did as a rookie, what he did in college. He was
28:22just hurt last year and like the ass really backs that up and now he's going to be healthy. He's gonna ball out. He's
28:28the wide receiver one. Oh, and everyone else, it's it's a gross wide receiver committee. Jacobe Meyers has had a 25% target share every year of his career.
28:37Travis Hunter is going to get somewhere between 20 and 40% of the routes. And so, it just Parker Washington also coming off the field in heavy personnel
28:45is a wasted pick. That's the downside.
28:49upside is dude balled the f out last year was the featured wide receiver one and those were all of Jacksonville's best games by far and so maybe they
28:59should just keep featuring him uh in the Liam Cohen slot role which has been historically productive I really see yeah there's a chance he's a wasted pick
29:08there's a chance he's like legitimately a fantasy wide receiver one like a mid-range wide receiver one I could really easily see that being the case
29:16and when you look at his ADP and Factor in upside wins championships.
29:20Factor in that upside matters more than downside is detrimental. He's an amazing pick. Like even if he busts the f out.
29:29>> If he, you know, week four you're dropping him from your rosters, I'm still going to be like, I don't care.
29:35That was a great pick. You know, risk versus reward, upside wins championships, even if it doesn't work out. Good process regardless of the
29:44results. You didn't even mention Liam Cohen slot archetype either.
29:49>> I did. I did. Like that's that's a key part is like looking back, dude. That it's so crucial to me. Chris Godwin with
29:56Liam Cohen ranked behind only Jamar Chase and fantasy points per game. He was the overall wide receiver, too. And that's like bearing the lead. The lead
30:05to me is Mike Evans was nine fantasy points per game less. Mike Evans.
30:11>> That's crazy, bro. Right. So Mike Evans is like an alltime alpha and Chris Godwin in the Liam Cohen slot role turn
30:19him into a beta. So it's like the BTJ argument I think is really compelling.
30:23But it's like hey maybe he's just in the Mike Evans role and this Chris Godwin Parker Washington role is just way more
30:29valuable. And it's also it's also let's not lose sight of Trevor Lawrence and his issues over the years is what have
30:36we always said? He locks on to his first read. He needs a wide receiver who can separate really quickly and that seems
30:43way more Parker Washington than or deep threat BTJ.
30:48>> Yeah, for me the answer is Parker Washington as well because you know everything you mentioned plus I think about like this Trevor Lawrence breakout
30:54we've praised so openly.
30:56>> It came in conjunction with this growth with Parker Washington. So they're going to want to duplicate that success. Also, they're like living together this
31:03offseason. Like they clearly have a thing and when quarterbacks have like think about Matthew Stafford that like twinkly gets in his eye with his wide
31:11receiver one. Yeah. It's like you're just getting fed when you become that guy.
31:15>> BTJ might be a more talented player.
31:17Doesn't matter. Washington's getting fed because that is Trevor Lawrence's dude now. So >> that's that's when they were at their best last year. And that's crucial
31:25because like if they're just a middle of the pack team like Vegas thinks they're 16th in scoring this year. If Vegas is
31:31right, then then like, yeah, whatever.
31:34All these guys are just mid as as f, right? And but if they are who they were at the tail end of last season, which
31:41was a top three offense, then there's a ton of upside. And who were they featuring at that point in time? That
31:48was Parker Washington.
31:49>> Nice. I want to move on, but I want to address this real quick before we get to another question. Not criticism. you
31:56guys crush and have un >> unenviable >> enviable expectation of being always right. How do you adjust scout process with players like Roman Wilson, Damian?
32:03That's definitely pointed at me because those are guys I liked. Um >> I didn't like >> I don't adjust anything. Honestly, it's
32:10it sounds sounds it sounds ego. I mean, I I evaluate why did I miss, >> you know? Also, the book's not written
32:17on either of those guys. Probably more so written on Damen Martinez, but Roman still might have a role this year with
32:22Pittsburgh and and he could develop a little I know he dealt with injuries his his first year and that kind of set him
32:27back, but I don't I really don't adjust much of anything. I look for is there a a glaring reason why I missed and maybe
32:34I make an adjustment, but ultimately like I trust my own process because my hit rate has allowed me to. You know, I
32:41I still hit at a higher rate at pretty much every position than uh than the NFL does. And so like, yeah, I'm going to be
32:49wrong. It's I'm fully aware I'm going to be wrong. I've been wrong plenty of times and I'll be wrong more, but I'm
32:53also right a lot. And so, um, yeah, man.
32:58>> Yeah. I I'll say your hit rate is uncanny. Like I I look at, you know, people across the industry, their
33:04results, and yeah, they they don't come close to you. I will say though, I was a big Roman Wilson hater, and your track
33:10record on prospects is better than mine, better than anyone. But if you take the film versus analytics consensus where like if I really hate someone and you
33:19really like him, you just cross them off, that's that's the best hit rate there is, I think.
33:24>> Oh, yeah. Good [clears throat] call.
33:25Hey, we got a super chat here. We got a hit.
33:27>> Oh, >> M Love 107 with a $10 super chat. Thank you so much for that, man. Uh 12 team auction league halfpoint PPR Flex 10.
33:37What do you think of going all in and spending twothirds or more of budget on Bejian and Gibbs? We've gotten this
33:42question so many times. Or would you rather pair one of them with elite wide receiver Chaser Puka? I think we've answered this the same way every time.
33:48Just Yeah, if you can get Bjan and Gibbs, it's it's pretty fun. Just do it.
33:53>> Yeah, man. Um [laughter] that's that's wild. Uh I I would not pair with Chase or Puka. I would really place a premium on Bejon andor Gibbs. I
34:05I feel like grabbing both might put you at a disadvantage where you're you're too weak on depth and it does more harm
34:12than good.
34:13>> Oh, because it's 10 team. Is that why?
34:15No, it's 12 team.
34:15>> No, 12 team. Well, just Yeah. So, depth matters more in 12 team than 10 10 team.
34:21So, I don't know that I'd go after both, but but certainly one of those guys. And maybe don't pair with with Chase or
34:27Puka. I I don't really know though. I'll be honest. I'm more of a a snake guy. um you know, people who read the draft
34:33guide, tons of auction players who've had a ton of success, but this this question actually isn't in my wheelhouse. So, >> right on. All right, let's uh let's hit
34:42another one from the tweets from script.
34:46What's a backfield that isn't perceived as murky, but has an RB2 that can take over the role by the end of the season?
34:55There it is. Uh, I have a I want to hear your thoughts, Scott, but I have a super hot take for
35:03this after.
35:04>> Oh, boy. I So, I actually didn't put enough thought into this. Um, I mean, Kairen Williams, obviously, your boy Blake Cororm was incredibly efficient
35:15last year.
35:16>> Bears.
35:17>> Yeah, >> there's >> that was going to be my hot take. So, you kind of you kind of nerfed me on
35:22that one, but >> So, I don't think that's a hot take. I think a lot of people have that take. I
35:26was going to say the Bears backfield where it's like >> DeAndre Swift had a ton of injuries last year. So maybe he's just like goes back
35:34to being the RB1 healthy this year or like I don't know those those injuries, lower body injuries, hamstring injuries that have plagued him just keep piling
35:43up and like Kyle Manangi was you know what a round seven pick and just like Isaiah Pacheco out of Ruckers slept on
35:50but like grading on a curve that he's a rookie round seven pick was like really impressive last year and so maybe
35:58>> dude runs hard. Yeah, I think they like the the tandem, but um you know, maybe that's one people are sleeping on.
36:06>> Manungai like totally respect what he did as a seventh round rookie. He just doesn't have a diversified enough skill set to like warrant being a bellcow.
36:14>> So I I think Swift is probably the RB1.
36:17>> Yeah.
36:17>> But like can it get close to a 50/50?
36:20Absolutely. It kind of already was. So >> I I was trying to come up with a spicy one. The chalk ones are are for sure. Uh
36:27Blake Cororum. I got a spicy one.
36:29>> And Jonathan Brooks. Let's hear it.
36:32>> Broncos. Jonah Coleman.
36:34>> Oh, okay. I So, I don't know that this one's all that impactful for fantasy either, just because I feel like
36:40>> RJ Harvey ces catches passes.
36:44>> JK Dobbins is the lead back running the ball.
36:48>> Do Exactly.
36:49>> So, he's until he gets her. But here's the thing. Coleman is a very good receiver.
36:54>> That was That's one of the things I hated about his profile. It's like you're 5'8 225 and you're better at like
36:59the finesse components of playing running back than you are the power components. And so, but he's a really good receiver. He caught a million
37:06passes at Washington. So, I I don't know, man. And I just like there was enough on R.J. Harvey's tape last year
37:12to scare me a little bit into thinking Payton might be off of him. So, just saying I did say it was a hot take. I didn't
37:21say it was like a guaranteed slam dunk, but like >> he he wants to know he wants to know some unexpected ones, right? A backfield
37:27that isn't perceived as murky.
37:28>> Well, I think >> yeah, >> I think Coleman could absolutely be a factor there.
37:32>> Okay, >> so um all right, let's do another one from the only Hanch who's the one player non-QB you're not drafting, but you're
37:43afraid he might come back to bite you.
37:48>> Um I don't know. I I needed to give this one more thought than I did. Uh I will say like I I mentioned this multiple
37:54times on multiple podcasts. I think Ama Igbuka is the trickiest player to get right. And maybe it's just as simple as
38:02hey, he he was a top five fantasy wide receiver his first five weeks. It was the third most by a wide rookie wide
38:10receiver first five games since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Um and then he got injured and Baker got injured. And so if
38:18you want to just write off week six on where the GPS tracking says, yeah, he was seriously dealing with something.
38:25Jeff Mueller, best injury expert in the game, was like, "Yeah, they needed to give him two weeks off." And because they didn't, he was just like playing at
38:34less than 90% for the next however many months. Um, and yeah, and so if you just write that off and it's like, hey, no,
38:42Mike Evans, Baker Mayfield's a baller and a dog. Uh, could he be a league winner? He's in the Zack Robinson Cooper
38:49Cup role, etc., etc. Uh, I see I see some really serious red flags as well.
38:56Um, and you know, Jeff Mueller, who I just mentioned, is actually really bullish on Chris Godwin and whatnot, but yeah, like I said, he's one I've really
39:05struggled with, and I've struggled because I think it matters a lot. Like I you the the the upside and the downside
39:12here. I think he's an important player I really want to get right and so so I've struggled with him. What what what about
39:19you Brett? Do you have an answer to this? [gasps] >> I don't you know I'm I'm like scanning the the the ADP right now to find one.
39:29>> I think maybe the guy I'm it's probably Lad Mani for me.
39:33>> Oh, okay.
39:34>> I I have basically no interest in drafting him. I'm I'm QJ.
39:38>> If I'm drafting one of them, it's QJ.
39:39And then it's like, but I do know that Lad's super talented. Like Lad has a ton of talent and it's like if he wins the
39:48opportunity to be their wide receiver one. Yeah. He's going to make me look silly. So I'm a little scared about that
39:53one.
39:54>> Yeah. Yeah. Ryan Heath's JSN this year and and you and I are both kind of >> fading lads. So that's scary for sure.
40:01>> Yeah.
40:02All right, let's move on. Uh tweet from King to Icon. Oh, he's already Look, producer Troy had it up before I even
40:10queued him verbally. Bashel Tutin vers Trayvon Henderson. Who has more league winning upside?
40:17>> This is a more loaded question I think people realize.
40:23>> Can I just say something? Can we just we just like ignore this question and have a conversation about Beasel Tudin?
40:29Because uh this is Ryan Heath's guy and you know like I showed him my rankings.
40:35I'm like what do you think? And you know I he's like I don't agree with this but I get why you got there. I don't agree
40:40with this. I don't get why you got there. And he's just like Basel 2 needs to be way higher. And I'm like I kind of
40:45thought I was already high on it. I was like needs to be way higher. This is this is his guy. And like there's no one
40:51in the space, no fantasy analyst I respect more than Ryan Heath. He's really just brilliant and amazing. So it makes me nervous whenever we we're
40:59misaligned here. And I worry my take is like a cognitive bias. It's like emotion driven, which is like inexcusable.
41:08I can't have that. And it's because I love Chris Rodriguez coming out. I was a big Chris Rodriguez. I I thought he
41:16deserved draft capital way better than he got.
41:19>> And then he came on the show. He came on School of Scott. I interviewed Chris Rodriguez. We we had a great time. We we
41:27became chummy. He follows me on Twitter.
41:30Wish him a happy birthday. We're friends. I love Chris Rodriguez. And so like I look at Basil Tutin and Ryan Heath is like the the base case bare
41:40minimum is he's Etienne from last year but more efficient because you know he's not washed like Etienne is. You you we
41:49were both really high on Beijel Tutin coming out and me I just like I just think Chris Rodriguez is just going to
41:56get 12 to 14 carries every single week.
41:59So with Tutin it's everything that's left over. like Crod's not going to get a single target, but 12 to 14 carries
42:06every single week. And so like it it shrinks the pie that's left for Totin.
42:11But I don't know if this is just because like I want this to be the case because Crod's my boy. He came on the pod. Uh so
42:18you tell me, am I thinking about this logically or not?
42:22>> Well, first of all, I just got to point something out here that there was something said in that in that diet
42:26tribe that I can't let go. Uh >> oh. We think Tootton could be a more efficient version of Travis ETN or
42:33Achan, whatever we're calling him these days.
42:35>> Etn.
42:36>> Do do we really think running back the running back himself is who controls their efficiency?
42:43>> Well, I'm just saying like the expectation for a Liam Cohen backfield should be extremely high and it wasn't last year and I think that's because ETN
42:51was washed and it's going to be much better this year. Yeah, I'm pointing out that offensive line is what controls a
42:56running back's efficiency.
42:58>> Okay.
42:58>> More than the running back itself, right?
43:00>> More than the play caller. Okay.
43:01>> They didn't upgrade their offensive line.
43:03>> Okay.
43:03>> And so we can point at metrics from Travis all day long and say he wasn't very good. The force miss tackle rate
43:10was low. The yards after contact were low. Explosive run rate was average.
43:14yada yada. That's offensive line driven mostly in my opinion. So I like can Basel Tuton increase the efficiency on his own a little bit? Sure. He's a more
43:22explosive player, maybe has more wiggle than than Travis does at this point in time. However, like it's generally an offensive ecosystem equation, and can
43:31Liam Cohen improve that second year in the system? Sure, we saw a massive jump in Tampa Bay. However, his offensive line in Tampa Bay at his disposal
43:39significantly better than what he's got in Jacksonville. So, like I just want to point that out. I think the expectations of Tuton taking this to another level on
43:47his own accord is a little out of my perfect like I'm not willing to go that far for one and then for two there's a
43:54real downside case with Tuton that is scary and it is you mentioned how much you like you know Chris Rodriguez you
44:00know who else does Liam Cohen >> the guy you love coming out of college played for Liam Cohen and he was that
44:07entire offense he was a wildcat quarterback he was an every down back for them like he was a monster and so
44:15yeah there's a chance Liam Cohen just wants his boy and I know there's a health risk right now with Rodriguez but
44:20I I think he'll end up being fine for the season right and then on top of that they have a third back and Laquent Allen
44:25who's probably a better pass catcher than Basel Tutin so like there's an extreme downside case for Tuton where it's like >> yeah you're right Rodriguez might get 8
44:35to 12 carries a game and then if Laquent Allen plays even half of the third downs >> Toutton is completely fantasy irrev
44:42elephant. Now, I'm not predicting that's going to happen, but like there's so much risk involved with Tuton to me that it's like [snorts] he's another one I'm
44:50kind of like I see the upside. I do see the ceiling if he does win that job.
44:53He's a bellcow. It's insane. However, there's enough downside here where I'm like I just don't know how I feel about it where Trayvon Henderson really just
45:00like we kind of know what his situation is. We know Raandre is a good football player and if Raandre were to get hurt
45:06or get in the doghouse, Henderson's like a to the moon type player. I kind of tied this full circle back to the
45:12question, but >> so I don't know.
45:15>> I'm going to blow your mind with a stat real quick. Yeah. Shout out to producer Trey. Chris Rodriguez is a less athletic
45:20Marshon Lynch. That was his own comp for himself. He said that on our podcast, but um >> and I think that was also our comp uh
45:28based on film. All right, here's a stat to blow your mind. Since entering the league of 67 qualifying running backs, Chris
45:36Rodriguez ranks first in yards after contact per attempt, which Liam Cohen had, every time he's asked about a running back, he talks about how much he
45:46values yards after contact per attempt.
45:48Chris Rodriguez number one since entering the league, number two in success rate, number two in stuff rate, number three in EPA per run behind only
45:55Devon Aan and Derek Henry, fifth in touchdown rate, eighth in miss tackles force per attempt. Uh I still think, you know, Basil Tutin's for sure probably
46:04the better back, but again like Liam Cohen his history uh he, you know, went out of his way to sign him. Uh and it's
46:13a player I've always been high on. I will say this. So, so factor in injuries. Trayvon Trayvon Henderson way more upside. If Raandre Stevenson goes
46:21down, Henderson to the moon like you said, but assume full health for Raandre and Crod. Tutin has way more upside in
46:28my mind.
46:30>> Yeah, that's >> which is a hot take, which I don't I don't People are very high on Travian. I think I think we're I think I'm out on
46:36TV. I think Chris Wet is out on Tvian Henderson. just a guy who just like takes up space on your bench and you
46:43just you just hate come week seven you're like gh why did I draft you?
46:49>> I have to nerd out for a second. You mentioned Chris Rodriguez yards after contact success rate. You know to me
46:55that's the that's the hallmark of an efficient running back like for a running back that's going to control efficiency. It's like success rate EPA
47:02per rush non-exlosives and then um yards after contact. And so what is the goal of of offense? It's to score points,
47:11right? The goal isn't necessarily to have the most robust run game. The best way to score points is to have a robust
47:16pass game, Scott. And so the best way to do that is to get your quarterback in manageable situations, to stay on
47:22schedule, to get play action, right? We we've talked about all the the cheat codes to to efficient offensive play calling. Well, having a an efficient,
47:32success driven back like Chris Rodriguez is is a huge cheat code. And this is why Kenneth Walker didn't work out in
47:38Seattle because he's not any of those things and he's uh an explosive runner only and and that's why Zack Charbanet routinely played over him is because
47:46Charbanet is the stay on schedule guy and so you if you want to live in this play action world which we know Liam
47:51Cohen does like that's the best way to do it being second and five not you know second and nine with every once in a
48:00while hitting explosive and Tuton is definitely a more boomer runner than he's he's definitely more on the the Kenneth Walker. per train than say Chris
48:07Rodriguez. So >> I I have a devil's advocate argument for Tudin. Um okay, >> which is going to be a nice segue into a
48:16follow-up question.
48:17>> Uh so so one thing that matters is, you know, play callers don't want to be tipping their play calling hand, whether
48:24the play is going to be a run or a pass.
48:26Here's a crazy Chris Rodriguez stat.
48:28Since high school, he averages just 3.3 receptions per game. like he is a total and complete non-factor in the passing game which is why Tuton has way more
48:38upside than Chris Rodriguez does even if he Rodriguez is as good as we want him to be. Um and so maybe there's a world
48:46where yeah they just want Toutin to be their bellcow. It's not tipping the play call, etc., etc., but this is something
48:54that's been explicitly said by commander, new commanders OC David Blau, uh, that they don't want to be tipping their play calling hands. They want a
49:04multiaceted running back. And so I'm wondering who you think that's going to be. Do you think that's going to be Rashad White who is an exceptional pass
49:16catcher, not a great runner, and we've seen him be a bellcow for a stretch or do you think it's going to be Jacore
49:23Kroski Merritt who I think is a really underrated impressive early down runner with a rare explosive skill set that again is rare and it's hard to find and
49:34OC's are valuing that much more explosives in the run game today than they have in the but has historically been a non-factor
49:43in the passing game. Who do you think is more likely to run away with it? Uh, by the way, Jakori Kroski Merritt also led
49:51the league in yards per carry from outside zone. This is supposedly going to be an outside zone scheme. Rashad White pretty bad in zone, much better in
50:00man gap. Um, what what do you think it's it's is trickier to teach? you know, catching the ball or uh who do you think
50:07is more likely to get that bellcow role if if one exists?
50:11>> It's a great question. I I think right now without seeing how these guys develop in training camp, I think Rashad
50:17White's the more complete player. I think he's functional on early downs and really good on pass downs where I think JCM is early down only right now. But
50:24like I haven't been, you know, standing next to JCM when he's doing his pass drills this off seasonason. So I have no
50:31idea where he's at. You know, I I kind of think like we started the conversation talking about beatw writers and overvaluing it. I think coach speak
50:41is also up there with things we overvalue.
50:44>> It's like remember these guys when they say things they're not ever saying things in terms of production or fantasy football.
50:50>> Like they're just simply pointing out like a lot of it is just like hey I have to answer this question because it was
50:56asked and here's my answer. It's like it's not always well thought out. It's not always there's not always some carrot to find and every little thing
51:04they say and I think we we kind of over you know analyze that stuff as well. So I don't know I mean JSM's younger with
51:11probably more ceiling so I think maybe they work him into an every down role at some point but I think Rashad White's a
51:16really good football player just not great on early downs.
51:19>> Yeah I just want to say on coach speak that's something we added to ball knowledge uh you just go to
51:24fantasypoints.ai AI. If you're a subscriber, you can access it. But yeah, we included all press conference transcripts into the AI. And so that's
51:32actually been really helpful for me in my research process is again like I don't I don't care that the coach is
51:39saying, "Oh, Rashad White's really good.
51:41We really like him. Oh, Jakori Crossy, he's really talented." What I'm asking are questions like, "Hey, uh, do the Giants want Jackson Dart to run more
51:50this year or run less this year because the injuries?" and it pulls up the exact quotes and it's it's like hardball
51:56saying, you know, we we need to protect him, but that's more just he needs to get out of bounds. He needs to slide. We
52:02don't want him running less because that's such a valuable component to his game. And it's like, okay, good. Yeah, I don't have to move him down in my
52:09rankings. You know, he's still going to be a Konami code uh quarterback. And so, yeah, shout out to Ball Knowledge. Also,
52:15shout out to Ryan Heath, who uh is here in the comments. Tudin led all rookie running backs in the fantasy points data
52:22era in success rate. So he had an all-time great success rate last year.
52:26So I again I just said you know Chris Rodriguez top two since he came into the league. Well, uh might have been even
52:32better. So you know shout out to Ryan Heath who's the toughest guy in the world to argue with just because dude
52:37he's so smart. He knows what's predictive and what's not. So yeah this is one of the ones that has has really
52:43I've struggled with is is where to rank tootin. I again I worry it's just because like it's wish casting. It's emotional. Like I pride myself on being
52:51cold and logical and rational and it's like do I just want Chris Rodriguez to be a thing because he's my boy? I don't
52:58I don't know. You tell me. Con comments.
53:00Please leave comments. Tell me. Tell me where you stand on Tuden versus Crod.
53:04>> All right. We got a question here that I absolutely love talking about. Brock Chain asked, "What's Romeo Dub's ceiling if he's getting the majority of the slot
53:14work?
53:17I have I have a great answer to this, but uh I I'm really curious to hear what you think because I saw you leave a a
53:24GIF in response and uh seemed like you thought this was a stupid question >> or not worth answering.
53:32>> No, >> maybe I just can't read your gifts.
53:34>> Maybe I'm a bad ger. I don't know. My wife thinks I'm hilarious.
53:37>> Maybe you're a bad ger.
53:38>> I don't know. No, I think this is this is such a fun >> your love language.
53:44No, that's that's actually not physical touch for those wondering.
53:50>> All right.
53:52Good to know.
53:54>> All right. You want You want me to just >> No, hold on. Hold on. Hold on. So, you wanted my take on Dub. I think Dub is a
54:00fantastic player. I've been saying for years he's underrated. I think he's a total package. Route runner, body control, ball skills, but he's lived
54:09primarily on the boundary. Right. When he does go on the slot though, if you look at the ass metric, Scott, >> number one in in separation,
54:16>> number one >> for for players aligned in the slot.
54:19Isn't that crazy? No, it's a relatively small sample, so let's not get super crazy with that. It's just it is interesting. I think
54:25>> he's an under underrated separator. Out of like 12 or 120 qualifiers, he was like 39th in separation score the last
54:32year. Look at the last three years, he's top 30. Um, and that was primarily as like an X guy, right? But when he kicks
54:37into the slot, it gets even better. And then I know you're about to lead us on a journey through Josh McDaniel's history
54:44as [laughter] a play caller and the slot receiver. So why don't you go ahead and do that?
54:48>> Uh yeah, so the stat you're referencing over the last two years, Romeo Dobs leads the league in ass from the slot.
54:56He's one, Z Flowers two, George Pickkins three. Lot of lot of commentary this offseason about the Cowboys trying to get in more work from the slot. Jerry
55:04Judy four, Malik Neighbors five, Jamar Chase six, Aman Ross St. round seven, Justin Jefferson eight, only 15.8% of his routes in the slot, but when he was
55:14there, he was exceptional. Also led in separation win rate, as you could tell from this this list, a lot of really
55:20good wide receivers on there. And then the Josh McDaniel slot thing is, yeah, you look at Josh McDaniel slot, uh, since he came into the league as a play
55:31caller, his slot wide receiver finishes top 12 in fantasy points per game 44% of the time. Top 25 72% of the time. Do you
55:41want to guess what Romeo Dob's ADP is >> in underdog?
55:46>> Go ahead.
55:47>> Wide receiver 52.
55:49>> Smash that.
55:50>> I know. So, I'm not a baseball guy, but that's dude, basketball ADP is awful this year. I don't know what these
55:57basketball drafters are doing, but uh Romeo Dobs is, you know, an extreme value. And uh yeah, shout out to our guy
56:04Zayn Dani. I know we we were trashing beats earlier, but he had a great he's had multiple tweets where it's like no
56:11no Dobs is very clearly the slot in this offense, but one of the beats and one of the better ones said uh two days ago
56:19that they envision him as like the PPR cheat code Stfan Diggs role where AJ Brown is more like the deep threat
56:28stretching the the field putting pressure on the defense even when he's not getting the ball which is like oh Maybe maybe we're all way too low on
56:37Romeo Dobs, way too high on uh AJ Brown.
56:41Certainly this is one of those things that and by the way the the Josh McDaniel slot thing people are like oh
56:46yeah well they had Wes Welker and they had Julian Edelman and it's like yeah those were UDFAS like [laughter] it's kind of the chicken and the egg
56:57thing.
56:57>> Um >> and so yeah it's like dude no one's talking about this. No one's talking about this this slot role which is
57:04historic oh Jacobe Meyers another UDFA historically super valuable. Uh and so I I've struggled with where to rank him.
57:12He's still kind of I don't know does he have enough upside to really matter to be uh you know a flag plant. I don't
57:21know but uh there there's something here and it's and it's really curious no one else is talking about him except for
57:27you, me and Zayn. If if the ADP stays around 52 for reddraft, wide receiver 52. Yeah, I'm flag planting this. This
57:36this is an ascending offense that's completely revamped their pass catching unit. Like, >> yeah.
57:41>> Yeah, we AJ Brown's good. That doesn't pro, you know, prohibit Romeo Dubs from being super fantasy viable, man.
57:46>> He's uh he's 54 on ESPN, 53 on Yahoo.
57:51>> Yeah, that's crazy.
57:53>> Yeah, but I mean there's a lot of guys like that. like your boy Ricky Pearl is wide receiver 46.
57:58Um so there's just kind of >> this is why we're hammering running backs early, Scott.
58:03>> Yeah. Yeah, that is right. That's that's exactly right.
58:06>> Um all right, I want to do one more tweet we got and then we'll we'll move over to to some Discord questions that
58:10we got. But um here's a here's a tweet from Oh, I put the tweets from Dvont Smith. That's actually not true. It's a
58:16question about Dvont Smith. But uh guy asks, "Dvont Smith, great role but poor at beating press coverage. What stops every team from pressing him and
58:27dramatically lowering lowering his ceiling?"
58:30Um here isn't that common, right? Ex.
58:34>> That's what I was say. Here's the thing about press. Jamar Chase saw press the most of any receiver last year and it
58:39was like 118 snaps like like 20% of his routes run or something like that. So, like, sure, they could press Dvonte a
58:48little bit more, but like what is the net result of that gonna be? I also think they're gonna hide Dvontto a
58:54little bit. I think Dantavian Wixs profiles as a X better than Dvont. So, I think they'll keep him in the Z or F
59:01role and we don't have to worry about this much, if at all. Um, actually, I'm going to look it up. I'm going to look
59:07up how many times Dvont Smith was pressed last year.
59:09>> Well, I can tell you his efficiency.
59:11Shout out to Fantasy Points data uh against press coverage last year.
59:16>> Yeah, not great actually.
59:17>> This is true. This is true press. 0.88 yards per route run which you ranks 62nd. And then against on plays without
59:26press coverage, 2.12 yards per route run that ranked top 20. Um and so yes, skinny Batman I think is just a little
59:34too skinny. And and it's not just press coverage. He could also get as he's running his routes, he could get bullied
59:40by more physical quarterbacks. He could get pushed to the boundary, uh, not really give himself enough room to work.
59:47And so, uh, yeah, I think this is a fair concern, but I I mean, I also think he's going to be incredibly successful
59:53without AJ Brown there.
59:56>> Yeah, it is a fair concern, but again, pressed on just 56 routes. He had negative ass on those routes. Even if
60:02that doubles, guys, >> like Taylor Swift negative ass.
60:06>> Oh my god.
60:09Wow. Uh, dark places here on the School Scott live. Um, even after us, >> even if his press routes double, that
60:18would mean he's number one in the NFL in the amount he gets pressed, which I don't even think they're going to allow
60:22to happen. They're gonna hide him at the Z or the F. And then so but even if that happens, the increased opportunity he
60:28gets from AJ Brown leaving will completely offset those 50 snaps he's going to get pressed extra. So um I'm I'm not too worried about it. Do you
60:37want to hit some Discord ones?
60:39>> Yeah, let's do it.
60:41>> I have a a real fun one. I I thought this question was awesome and something I can relate to because I think it's
60:48easy to get left in the weeds in some of these, but long as Simus asked, most industry analysts speak primarily in terms of I want some shares
60:58of X guy or Y guy. Can you demystify this language for those of us who care the most about winning our top one to
61:05two leagues? Can you help us remove the need for a diversified portfolio? How you would draft differently >> if it was your only draft? I I love this
61:14question so much because I hate >> I shouldn't say I hate I don't like talking about fantasy players in terms of like the stock market and I know if
61:23you play in 30 Dynasty Leagues that's the that's the you know a lot of people feel like they have to have that
61:28attention to detail in order to be successful across all 30. But Scott, you said something pre-show that I just think was a banger line. I want you to
61:36go ahead and wrap on that for a second.
61:38Then I'll throw in my two cents.
61:39>> I I don't even remember what I said.
61:42>> You You basically said, "No, I draft the exact same because if I find an edge, I'm just going to keep exploiting that
61:48edge over and over and over and over and over."
61:50>> Yeah. Yeah. It's it's diversification is for cowards. Yeah. when my whole thing is there is a market inefficiency here on this player on a Parker Washington on
62:00my Exodia quarterback. And so when I see an edge like that, I'm just going to keep tapping that button over and over
62:08and over again. And so like legitimately if I draft 25 FFPC teams, I'm going to diversify very little. And the only
62:17instances where I am going to diversify is let's say I have the 103 in 10 leagues. I'm gonna draft 50% Puka, 50%
62:26Jamar Chase. Why? Because like literally to me it's 5050. It feels like a coin flip between them. Um but for the most
62:33part it's like no on those 25 teams I'm going to have 93% Parker Washington. I'm going to have 100% Exodia quarterback.
62:42I'm gonna have And so that's really what it is. And you know you know you talked about the stock market upside wins
62:48championships. The whole thing was about how actually fantasy football is not like the stock market. It's it's it's in many ways like the complete opposite.
62:57And so, uh, yeah, diversification is for cowards. Shout out to my guy Theo, but that's something we always buted heads on last year where it's like, no, Cam
63:06Scataboo in every draft, no matter what.
63:08>> Yeah, >> not diversify.
63:10>> An Exodia player is an Exodia player whether you're in 30 leagues or one league, right? So, yep, >> go go go collect those. for me too, like
63:18winning is obviously super important, but so is like being convicted and there's just some players I'm convicted on that I don't want pieces of, you
63:26know, it's very rare for me and I I play a lot more dynasty than reraft obviously, but it's very rare for me to
63:32concede to, oh, I need a share of that guy. Does it happen occasionally? Sure.
63:36Like I think I have one Caleb Williams share, you know? Um, but >> don't draft out of FOMO. Yep. try and
63:43remove the emotion from the equation and really just when you see an edge, hammer it.
63:48>> Boom. Love that. Um, here's another one from the Discord. Charles Morrison says, "If TDs are more important than ever and
63:56Devonte is who he is in that respect, is he still undervalued for the same reason? Is Z Flowers overrated?"
64:04>> Uh, so actually this is really interesting. This is something that uh Ryan Heath and I were were debating in our projections channel yesterday where
64:12it's like he was like, "Hey, are we way too low on Z Flowers, a guy I've always kind of been something of a hater on,
64:18and I saw that getting a play caller downgrade because of just I mean Declan Doyle comes from the right tree, but I
64:24had a ton of respect for Todd Monkin.
64:26And Z Flowers really benefited because he saw a ton of screens, a ton of manufactured touches, a ton of busted coverage, and he was running routes from
64:36a heavy personnel at one of the highest rates in the league, which is an efficiency cheat code for wide receivers. It's easier target
64:42competition against tight ends than it is wide receivers. And so that guy's leaving. And but they they haven't replaced him with anyone. Like I I was
64:50like, "All right, Keenan Allen's going to be on this team. Maybe Keenan and Stefan Diggs are going to be, but they're not adding anyone. it doesn't
64:56seem like they're in any rush to. And so if Mark Andrews is dust, it's Zay Flowers as um just like the only guy. And so like
65:06the only nitpick here is like the guy doesn't score touchdowns. And Ryan Heath was like, well, you know, we've said we
65:13we know touchdowns are kind of fluky and random and they regress to the mean. You know, Antonio Brown didn't have a lot of
65:20touchdowns early in his career. Trey McBride had a lot of touchdowns early in his career. And this is these are great
65:25arguments. Like I'm not saying he's wrong, but to me it's like, yeah, I know. I dude I was writing, you know,
65:31uh, touchdown regression articles probably when Antonio Brown was a rookie, you know, saying touchdowns regress the mean and it's volatile. But
65:40you look at a Z Flowers and like, you know, I want to like think I know better that I think I know when I can break the
65:48rules. And I feel like Zay Flowers, 5 foot8, 185 pounds. he he ranks outside of the top 50 wide receivers and end
65:56zone targets every single year that hey maybe this is just a guy who doesn't score a ton of touchdowns and is really
66:04just a PPR scam and so he doesn't have you know bury you upside and then Devonte Adams conversely it I struggle to see a ton of upside for him
66:15beyond the the touchdowns. Um, and so, by the way, this this question is coming from a tweet I put out two days ago with
66:23the Kball kickers making longer and longer field goals than ever before with um, you know, starting field position going closer and closer to the end zone
66:32because they're changing the kickoff rules every year. T it shaves off about like 22 yards per game. And so touchdowns are worth more. They're more
66:42important. Yards are worth a little bit less. And so he's asking, "Hey, is Devonte Adams maybe someone we want to target?" And so, yeah, uh, elite
66:52touchdown upside. He he led the league in ass from a red zone ass last year, separation win rate, and he was like 2x
67:01the next closest player. Like, he's just really good at that. And if you look at the Rams, what they did was it was a ton
67:06of 13 personnel with Adams on the field, no puka on the field. And so, yeah, a ton of touch touchdown upside for this
67:13guy. But that's really all it is. Like I I like Adams this year. Um a crazy stat is in games he played on at least half
67:22of the team snaps last year. So controlling for injury games he played on at least half the team snaps. 19.2 XFP per game. 17.1 fantasy points per
67:32game. Both top five numbers. And he's wide receiver 26 by ADP. But he's old. I really like Mike Evans. I really like
67:40Devonte Adams. I really like their touchdown upside. Their ass was amazing.
67:45These old ass wide receivers, Adams was one, Evans or Evans was two in in ass last year. And so they still got it.
67:53What do they got? They still got separation. What do they don't have?
67:57They don't have Yak. If you look at the worst yards after the catch per reception seasons in fantasy points data history, they were both in the bottom
68:06six. So over a fiveyear span, 33y old Devonte Adams, 32y old Mike Evans.
68:13They're both a year older now. Bottom six. So like clearly there's some deterioration in skill set, but these where you you can't expect a ton of yak.
68:24What can you expect? And we talked about this in our last episode is the separation ability. This is more less physical ability, more film study, route
68:34running, technician nuances, subtle head fakes, IQ, etc. And so I think that's going to be there. And so to answer the
68:43question is is yeah, I think I think because of the way the the game is headed, it's going to give them a buffer
68:52um where their separation matters, especially inside the red zone. Um, and it gives them a it gives them a nice little buffer. Um, do they have league
69:02winning upside? Um, what do you think, Brett?
69:07>> I don't I don't know about league willing winning upside, but here's the I just want to say this, too. Like scoring
69:13touchdowns is a is a skill. It is a skill. Like, yeah, I in aggregate across the whole league, there is a regression
69:20to the mean for touchdown scoring.
69:22However, there's a reason Devonte Adams is always good at it. It's because he's good at it. like he scores a lot of
69:27touchdowns because he's a really good red zone receiver. He's he you mentioned the separation numbers in the red zone.
69:32They're they're crazy outlandish, but that actually is a skill. So like, and the reason this is an important conversation, Scott, and I don't know,
69:41we probably didn't back it enough for people that don't have time to follow every story line. One of the things we've uncovered, you know, pretty
69:48clearly is passing is down across the league. Touchdown scoring is down across the league. And so touchdowns, they mean a little bit more when when you're
69:56scoring less of them, when scoring in general is down, when passing yards are down. So I do think it's important, you
70:01know, to have a guy like Adams feels really reliable because, you know, he's going to be in the mix in the red zone
70:07offense and score a bunch of touchdowns where to your point, Zay hasn't proven now for what, three years, four years that he can score touchdowns.
70:15>> So >> yeah. Yeah, >> there is something to that. Yeah, I will say I do think Adams is a value, but um
70:23you do have some injury risk there with the age and whatnot. You know, Rams were kind of flirting with the idea of
70:28trading him and acquiring AJ Brown. Um but yeah, should should be, you know, among the favorites to lead the league in receiving touchdowns this year for
70:38sure. Probably going to score a lot more of those than Puka even.
70:42>> Do we want to have the Caleb Williams discussion again or can we just tell them to go watch the last episode? Go
70:48watch the last 10 in a row.
70:50>> Jeb 217, I see your your question here about Caleb. Uh last Friday's school, Scott, we did a quarterback tears episode. We talked Caleb Williams for
70:59about 10 minutes.
71:01>> Yeah. So, >> definitely watch that episode.
71:02>> I would say go check that out if you want my answer on Caleb. Plenty of data cited as well. Um all right, let's let's
71:09move on here. Let's do um John stupid in the Discord writes and I'm not calling him stupid. That's what he calls
71:15himself. Is zero RB sneaky viable this year? RB is getting pushed up the board and there's always value in zigging where others zag. I don't know if
71:25there's always value in that, but uh this is this is absolutely a question for you, Scott. I I'm very comfortable pounding running backs early and I I
71:32don't even when zero RB was cool, I never did it. So, I'll just let you take this one.
71:37>> Yeah, I would definitely say running back running back feels optimal and I feel really confident in saying that.
71:43This would be a case where I diversify, though. Like I if if I had 25 FFPC teams, I a number of those I would just
71:50go uh zero RB to to mix it up to to try and capture enough upside to win their million-dollar grand prize. Um and you
71:58could win with any strategy. And so like if you read my draft guide, it's hey, I I really want to go RB RB or RB wide
72:07receiver RB. And if you look at my overall rankings, there's a clear priority on the running backs over wide receivers early.
72:15And then there's a running back I really like in round four. There's an Exodia in round five. There's a running back I
72:21really like in round six to seven.
72:23There's an Exodia in what is it? Round nine. And then there's some dart throws I really like. I think there's a ton of
72:32ton of upside in a we talked about Rashad White, Jakori Kroski Merritt.
72:37There's a last round running back I really like. I I want in all my leagues.
72:42So I think yeah I think you can win with a zero RB approach. It's just yeah maybe you start Puka
72:51Drake AJ Brown and then dude if my Exodia round nine running back round five running back uh late round running
73:01backs hit like you are this unstoppable juggernaut. So, um yeah, I I think you know any strategy can work and if you
73:10read my draft guide, um you know, it should work. So, um no matter what you do, I think you could feel confident
73:17you're going to have an edge.
73:19>> Word. All right, let's hit um let's go black mamba. This is a great follow-up to your to that question I was just
73:24asked. If you go RB in the first, which receiver do you like late second? Nico Brown, I'm assuming AJ Brown, George
73:33Pickkins, Rashi Rice.
73:36Oh, that's a toughy, man.
73:38>> It is tough.
73:39>> My My instant lean is George Pickkins, >> but I see the case for all of those guys, to be honest with you. They all
73:46have pretty awesome roles, but I just think George is going to play in probably the best passing offense among that group. And so even though he might
73:55not have the role that Arashi Rice or Nico Collins has, I think it's going to be offset by just overall opportunity
74:03and explosiveness. And you know, Dak's going to lead the league in dropbacks. I think it'd be him or Bo Knicks probably.
74:08So >> yeah, I'm going to I'm going to just punt this question because I have those guys all ne like right after each other
74:15in my rankings. Yes.
74:16>> It's one I I keep I keep flipping back and forth on because it is really tough.
74:20>> Yeah. Well, I've I've called on this very show I've called CD Lamb the the worst first round pick you can make. So,
74:25I have to back that up by saying Pickkins might be the best second round pick you can make. Right. So, >> so I I'd lean uh Pickkins there.
74:33>> All right. Mikey Tay asked, "What's the be Oh, that's Mike Taylor, by the way.
74:37Uh one of our OG charters here. He's amazing. Fantasy point.
74:41>> Shout out to the Charters.
74:42>> What's the best landing spot for Stfan Diggs and does it matter?" Absolutely it matters. I think I think Diggs I mean
74:49he's a thousand yard receiver last year on like a 50% route share which is ridiculous right so still still has some
74:55stuff in the tank I Scott for me it's like for are we talking fantasy or X's and O's for fantasy it's got to be
75:04well let's do realistic spots I I'll like cancel out Miami or or Las Vegas I don't think he's going to either of
75:10those two teams >> oh man Las Vegas would be sweet they should >> Could you imagine Diggs in Vegas though that'd be
75:18>> [laughter] >> Yeah, >> you would move Brock Bowers up, right?
75:24>> Yeah, I think I would.
75:26>> Yeah, >> like that's a good thing for Brock Bowers if that happens.
75:29>> Yeah, he needs someone else the defense has to pay attention to for sure. Um like Yeah. Anyways, I don't know. I
75:36think fantasy-wise, I'm going to say the Washington Commanders probably.
75:41>> I mean, that's where he's going to go.
75:42It feels like a foregone conclusion at this point.
75:46Yeah, it it matters for sure. I think Digs can play. Scary Terry is on an island out there right now. It'd be it'd
75:52be good for Scary Terry, actually.
75:54Probably. Yeah.
75:55>> You know.
75:55>> Yeah.
75:56>> So, Hershey Forever says, "Digs to the ners is the most dangerous."
76:01>> Could you imagine him and Evans together? Like the geriatric unit.
76:06>> Wow. Yeah.
76:09>> Digs in BBL Capital Miami would be the worst. Oh my gosh. [laughter] Um, all right. Brain frog, brain frog, not brain fog, asks, "Where is the value
76:19upside at QB? In superflex leagues, late round QBs shift into the fourth, sixth round next to wide receiver, running back value picks.
76:32This is you, Scott."
76:34>> Um, >> I I don't do like a lot of reddraft superflex. Isn't that weird? If I do reddraft, it's usually one QB. And I
76:40don't know why that is, but >> yeah. Let me let me pull up my draft guide. Um, in Superflex, like the
76:48equation train ch changes really dramatically. So, it's my Exodia um quarterback is going to be different in Superflex. And also for 16, like 16
76:59and I'll just give it away. It's Dak Prescott, which is who it was last year.
77:03Uh, crazy good value in six point per passing touchdown leagues. In superflex, I think it's it's Malik Willis.
77:11definitely like draft either one of Yeah, it's it's Malik Willis.
77:16>> Okay.
77:16>> And then Kyler Murray is another good quarterback late. Um make sure you uh that's just like insane value for the
77:23super flex format. But also like Brock Pury types are are pretty good value.
77:28>> Where's Bo Knicks going?
77:30>> I don't know. I I don't like Boon Knicks though. So >> I I kind of do. I mean, he's Yeah, he
77:35feels like one of those kind of safer high-end QB2 types who beat his ADP.
77:41>> Yeah, he led the league in dropbacks last year and he runs a little bit >> his ankle, but yeah, >> the ankle wasn't It's not that bad.
77:49He'll be all right.
77:49>> It was really bad.
77:50>> He'll be all right.
77:52>> It's like his seventh surgery on that ankle, too.
77:55>> Oh, is it actually dang, I didn't know that.
77:58>> Look at writer Scott over here telling me what's up with these injuries. But anyways, he leads the league in led the
78:03league in dropbacks. Ecosystem got dramatically improved with Jaylen Wadd at receiver. Plus, he's going to run a little bit. I still think he'll run a
78:09little bit. It's in his DNA. That's why he keeps having surgery on that ankle, Scott.
78:12>> Yeah.
78:13>> But all right, we got >> We got to get out of here. Yeah, >> we do. We got to wrap this up. It was
78:16awesome.
78:16>> People wanting more.
78:18>> Yeah, exactly. We got to just give them give them enough to where they want more andaste. A taste.
78:22>> Yeah, give them a taste. Uh, this was awesome. Chat was popping off again. Um, I see a lot of the same faces in here
78:29too, like every time we do a show and I love that for us. That means we have a really solid community here and we're
78:34very appreciative to you guys. Thanks for all the amazing questions, the super chats, yada yada. We'll be back next Should I tease next Friday?
78:41>> Sure.
78:41>> Well, actually to we have another episode coming out later with um Danny Kelly. That's that's one you don't want to you don't want to miss. Shout out.
78:48Then next Friday, we have Matt Harmon coming on the live to do a >> kind of like a reception perception verse ass episode. It's not going to be
78:57contentious. I know that's branded as it's going to be fun. We're going to talk about our biggest differences and and some lessons learned at wide
79:02receiver and stuff like that. It's going to be a really fun episode. So, make sure you're back next Friday. And on
79:07that note, I'm Brett Whitefield. This is my co-host Scott Barrett. And we are out. [music]