Rich Hribar’s Must Draft Fantasy Football Players | League-Winners and Flag Plants (2026)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 12 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 24, 2026
Published
Fri, July 24, 2026
12
Player insights
12
Players mentioned
Topics
A.J. BrownDe'Von AchaneDerrick HenryDeVonta SmithJames CookJonathan TaylorJustice HillJustin HerbertLamar JacksonNico CollinsSaquon BarkleyZay Flowers
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
PositiveProjection18:45
AJ Brown projects as a high-upside weekly play with the Patriots after moving from Philadelphia. Under Kevin Patula's offense (weeks 11-17 last year), Brown was fourth in receptions, fifth in receiving yards, had 95+ yards in four of six games, and posted WR5 fantasy points per game. His route composition shifted strategically: 24% hitches (career high), crossing routes dropped from 8.2% to 5.8% (second lowest of career), and play-action targets fell to career-low 24 targets. With Drake May at QB (10th in snaps under center vs. Jaylen Hertz at 29th), Brown will see more accurate downfield targets; May posted 61% completion rate (second in NFL) and led NFL in yards per attempt on 10+ yard throws. Josh McDaniels' scheme has produced elite WR1 seasons historically (Davante Adams: 100 catches, 1500 yards, 14 TDs in 2022). Brown projects to have significantly higher snap rate than Stefan Diggs (63% route participation) and faces less target competition than in Philadelphia (DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert vs. Romeo Dubs and Hunter Henry). Patriots ranked fifth in pass rate over expectation vs. Eagles' max 11th in last four seasons. Brown has double-digit touchdown potential, having achieved it twice in his career including his first year with the Eagles. Sharp Football recommends drafting him in the middle of the second round after taking a running back in the first round.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeProjection8:02
Devon Achan is projected to score in the 6–10 touchdown range, a more conservative projection than Marian Hampton's 15-TD outlook; this difference in touchdown equity is cited as the reason for ranking Hampton above Achan.
Insight pageDerrick Henry
NegativeProjection35:30
Sharp Football acknowledges that Father Time eventually catches up with all running backs; Derrick Henry will not sustain 300 touches indefinitely, and the Ravens' depth behind him is poor, meaning any significant injury would force Baltimore into a passing-heavy offense. If Henry misses even a four-week stretch, the Ravens would be forced to pivot to a passing team, as backup options (Justice Hill, Adam Randle) are not viable carries. This limits his ceiling and creates volatility in a run-heavy offense.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
PositiveProjection23:30
DeVonta Smith gets a significant target share upgrade with AJ Brown's departure. When Brown has missed time over the past two years, Smith has run 252 routes with a 29% target rate on those plays and 37% team target share, averaging just under 20 PPR points per game in a four-game sample with 20+ routes. Even accounting for regression from these peak numbers, Smith can operate at wide receiver one levels. Sharp Football views him as an ADP pick and a player to target if available late, given his elite prospect pedigree (Heisman winner, 1,800 yards at Alabama) and opportunity to carry the passing game. Sharp platforms like FFPC and Underdog have Smith solidly as a front-end third-round pick, but on Sleeper he's going around pick 45 overall, and on ESPN and Yahoo in managed leagues he's significantly cheaper. The market is sleeping on his upside in the Eagles offense despite the team's improved strength of schedule (top 10 easiest) compared to last season's bottom-three schedule.
Insight pageJames Cook
PositiveBreakout11:22
James Cook has as many top-24 scoring weeks in the past two years as Jalen Gibbs and Bejian Robbins despite sharing touchdowns with Josh Allen and not catching passes; he has recorded 31-32 touchdowns over his last 33 games, establishing him as a touchdown machine. James Cook is the same type of running back as Jalen Gibbs and Bejian Robbins but hasn't received credit because he hasn't been unlocked in the passing game yet; he has a strong pass-catching profile from college and could rival those elite backs if used similarly. Pete Carmichael's arrival and the team's stated goal of getting him more involved in the passing game could unlock this upside. If Jalen Gibbs or Bejian Barkley miss time, Cook projects as a top-two or top-three weekly play in fantasy football. The Bills have used Tai Johnson to keep Cook fresh on passing downs and early downs, limiting Cook's snap share and passing-game opportunity despite his college pass-catching profile.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
NegativeRole15:45
Jonathan Taylor's 2024 receiving usage serves as a benchmark for potential Saquon Barkley passing game increase. With AJ Brown's departure, Barkley could be utilized more in the passing game, potentially reaching Taylor's receiving baseline from last season.
Insight pageJustice Hill
NegativeDepth Chart36:00
Justice Hill is not a viable backup option behind Derrick Henry; Sharp Football questions his role in the Ravens backfield.
Insight pageJustin Herbert
PositiveValue3:00
Sharp Football flagged Justin Herbert as a big flag plant quarterback in recent appearances. The Chargers are not as top-heavy as Mike McDaniel's Miami teams (which featured Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Devon Achane), so one way to play the Chargers offense is to target Herbert and let the rest of the offense fall in line, rather than chasing multiple Chargers skill players.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveProjection30:06
Lamar Jackson is capable of a 9% touchdown rate spike and has improved significantly as a passer over the last three seasons, ranking top-three in completion rate over expectation. Even while playing injured with a hamstring issue last year, he maintained top-three accuracy, establishing him as a legitimately pinpoint accurate passer beyond his athletic upside. This supports his elite efficiency metrics when operating under center with Derrick Henry: 75% completion rate, 9 yards per pass attempt (QB5), and 11% touchdown rate (league-high).
Insight pageNico Collins
PositiveValue36:36
Nico Collins is probably the most underrated receiver in the NFL with elite separation metrics across all route types. He's legitimately good at every single route and consistently leads the league in first-read target share when on field; the offense runs through him. He was WR11 in target share, WR7 in air yards share, and WR12 in yards per route run. Price has dropped from 1-2 turn last year to 2-3 turn this year despite unchanged production and role. Tank Dell's return and second-year receivers (Jaden Higgins, Jayen Nol) have not impacted his target allocation.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveProjection15:17
Saquon Barkley is a bounce-back candidate after significant 2024 regression: yards per carry fell from 2nd to 33rd, success rate 14th to 39th, explosive run rate 8th to 25th, stuff rate 20th to 47th, and yards before contact per rush dropped from 2.64 to 1.36 (38th). However, when given a runway, Barkley still produced at elite levels with 6.6 yards per rush when not hit behind the line and five 10+ yard touchdown runs. Eagles offensive line health should improve with Lane Johnson returning and Chris Cooper replacing Jeff Stoutland, emphasizing wider outside zone and more movement. Additional upside exists if Barkley increases passing game usage from 17% of routes (with AJ Brown off field, 110-route sample) toward Jonathan Taylor's 2024 receiving baseline. Barkley is underpriced relative to his elite talent; the Eagles' elite offensive line with Lane Johnson healthy (top-three EPA per play with him on field vs. average without) and Saquon's identical mistackle force per touch to his 2024 breakout season suggest significant upside if the situation improves. Jaylen Hertz's processing ability and the Eagles' overall offensive variance present some ceiling concerns, but the team's defensive strength and commitment to the run game should support Barkley's floor.
Insight pageZay Flowers
NegativeBreakout29:48
Zay Flowers has full-blown alpha target potential in the Ravens offense with a 28% target share last season and target share climbing in each of his three NFL seasons. He was WR5 in target share, WR6 in yards per route run, and 36% of team air yards last year. On plays with actual pass attempts, he ranks third in yards per route run behind only Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The key to vaulting him into top-10 WR consideration is touchdown equity; he's run cold historically (4-5 TDs per season) but needs just 8-9 TDs to become a consistent top-8 to top-10 fantasy WR. He has 16 TDs in three seasons with 18 career red-zone targets (only 5 last year), and his red-zone target share has been inconsistent (20%, 11%, 19%) while his outside-red-zone share has climbed (23%, 28%, 30%). Sharp Football projects him to catch 95–100 balls in PPR leagues and be one of the highest-floor players in fantasy this year. His route-tree profile—horizontal and crossing routes rather than fade routes—matches the offensive schemes of Ben Johnson (who worked with Amon-Ra St. Brown) and Sean Payton (who used Brandon Cooks and Michael Thomas on horizontal routes), suggesting he can unlock red-zone target equity if the Ravens scheme him appropriately. Lamar Jackson's under-center rate has increased from 16.6% (2024) to 29% (2025) and could rise further; when Lamar operates under center with Derrick Henry, he posts elite efficiency: 75% completion rate, 9 yards per pass attempt (QB5), and 11% touchdown rate (league-high), creating a favorable passing environment. Sharp Football prefers Flowers over Garrett Wilson, Lad Maki, and T McMillan in draft rankings, citing superior target equity and offensive environment; Flowers is priced lower than these peers despite better offensive context and role fit.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:12What is going on? It is Fantasy Football Daily and we have a special show today.
0:18I am joined by everybody's favorite fantasy analyst, your favorite fantasy analysts. favorite fantasy analyst and my favorite, it is Rich Freebar from
0:29Sharp Football Analysis. Rich, it is good to have you on the show, man. It has been a minute since you and I have
0:35linked up. I'm excited to talk ball and uh talk some of your favorite players and flag plants that you're drafting this season.
0:43>> Yeah, brother. It's been a while uh since we've been on a show together, and it's been even longer since we've, you
0:48know, seen each other in person. But it it's great that they kind of got you back in this role and you're getting
0:53your voice back out there, getting your your beautiful face on screen. It's good to talk [laughter] to you, man.
0:58>> Yeah, thank you, man. Yeah, it's been a minute. We uh we linked up at the expo a couple years ago. I think you're headed
1:03out to the expo this year. A lot of folks heading out this uh this se this uh this summer. So, >> you'll see Rich in those in the streets,
1:10man. The streets of Canton.
1:12>> Yeah. If anyone's out there this week going to the expo, you know, definitely come say come say hello. Uh I'm always
1:18interested to share beverage with it with with the folks talking fantasy football.
1:22>> Yeah. Yeah. Rich is uh Rich is a man of the people and he's a man of the people joining the show again. Uh he was on the
1:28show with Theo and Scott earlier this summer. Go back and listen to that show on YouTube or the podcast feed. Rich
1:35gave out the goods of a lot of players he's kind of uh high on early in the offseason. This one will kind of we're
1:41just kind of running it back and talking through some of the players that Rich has uh come around on. maybe come a
1:47maybe moved up his rankings, moved up his tears a little bit. Rich, I saw you've posted your tears article. You posted your team aggression series.
1:54Seriously, if you don't check out Rich's work over at Sharp Football, uh truly it's it's some of the best in the
1:59industry. His worksheet that he posts every week during the season is fantasy gold. Anybody who was reading Roto World back in the heyday of Roto World, uh
2:09man, it was it's go it's seriously fantasy gold. He's been running it back over with Sharp Football for quite some time. I'm a truly a huge fan of Rich.
2:16So, this is this is fun for for me personally. Hopefully, everybody will enjoy it today. Rich, get let's get going, man. Uh mustdraft players. Some
2:24of some of Reeves' mustdraft players. I figured we get started here at running back. Uh running back obviously the most important position in fantasy. It's the
2:33position that helps lift your ceiling.
2:35You can draft receiver extremely well, but if you get running back wrong, you're going to have a bad season. Rich, let's get started with uh Chargers. Man,
2:42we have to get going on Chargers. Omar in Hampton is a player that you said you've moved up a little bit in your
2:47your tiers, your rankings. Let's talk through the logic of like, you know, Hampton is pretty expensive mid-sec round pick. He's going in that pocket
2:54with Ken Walker, with Saquon Barkley.
2:56What are some of the things that you're seeing, some of the things that stand out to you for Hampton's projection this
3:01season? Yeah, f first of all, just in general, like I think just, you know, the the Chargers are a team that, you
3:06know, obviously everyone's talked about and everyone's kind of honed in on them this year. And there's, I think, multiple ways to play the Chargers. Uh,
3:12the last month I was on the show, Herbert was like my big flam plant quarterback. And I think like, you know,
3:17you look at the Chargers versus the Mike McDaniel Miami teams. They're not as topheavy as the those Miami teams. Like Tyreek, Jaylen Wadd, and Devon Ain I
3:26think are three individual talents that are better than what the Chargers have.
3:29I think the Chargers players are really good. It's just I think that those three individual players are better than what they have and the Chargers actually run
3:35a little deeper, although maybe not as topheavy. So, the first way to play that would be like if they're not as top down
3:41consolidated to just get Herbert, right?
3:43Just get Herbert and let everything else fall in line. [snorts] And then I think the second way to play it is obviously
3:48we know that there is going to be like a huge potential backfield spike, you know, with Mike McDaniel. You know, his
3:54Miami offenses ranked, you know, fifth in yards per carry for running backs.
3:58They were fifth in success rate. They were first in explosive run rate. They had 59 rushing touchdowns. That was third in the NFL. And when I kind of
4:05initially did projections and I was thinking about Omar and Hampton, I was okay with him. He it came out solid, you
4:12know, was real good. And then as I started to do the tears and go more under the hood of like what his actual
4:16season was last year, I started to uncover like all these things that were like just like stacking positives and it was a lot better than I remembered it
4:24being. Um, you know, obviously his season was largely incomplete, you know, limited to the nine games with that ankle injury, but like before that ankle
4:31injury, like, you know, he was really coming on, you know, after that Naji Harris injury in week three, he was the
4:36RB4 against the Denver Broncos. He had 25 touches for 130 yards and a touchdown in that game. Obviously, he torched the
4:41Giants, which is everyone kind of talks about that game being like a stat, you know, influencer for him, but it really
4:46isn't. And then, you know, in week five, he had 17 touches, 70 yards on just 58% of the snaps before fracturing his
4:53ankle. Then we just like really never seen him. He returned to like when the offense was a complete shell of itself
4:58the back half of the year. It was just not like a functional offense. I mean the Chargers ended up facing third down
5:04at 55% of their set of downs. Only the Titans were worse. Uh only the Browns averaged fewer yards per play on first
5:10downs the back half of the year than the Chargers. It just like wasn't a functional offense and we just never seen him get inserted back in the
5:16lineup. Then he also hurt his other ankle when he came back in week 18 and we didn't see him play in the playoffs.
5:21But digging under the hood of his actual analytics, um he had, you know, an explosive run on 11% of his runs. That
5:28was 14th out of 49 running backs 100 or more carries. He was 11th in yards after contact. Now, he was 38th on that same
5:36list in yards before contact per rush because the offensive line is trash, right? Like he was hit at or behind the
5:42line of scrimmage on 58% of his runs.
5:44But on 52 runs hit beyond the line of scrimmage, 7 and a half yards per carry, that was seventh out of 49 running
5:49backs. explosive run on 19% of those runs. That was ninth. Um even on the runs that he was hit at or behind the
5:56line of scrimmage on, he was eighth in yards per carry. He was third in explosive run rate on those runs. He
6:01averaged he averaged um a run over yards over expectation on 45% of his runs.
6:06That was seventh in the league. And that was behind an offensive line that their starters played 16 and a half% of the
6:12total snaps last year. Uh was last in the NFL. Uh Bradley Boseman and Zion Johnson were the only starters to play
6:18in every game. Both those guys are out of here. They're off the team. Mai Beckton was a huge bust. Tyler Beadaz
6:23comes in free agent. We know we're getting Slater an altback. Uh Cole Strange is like not like a great interior fit like in terms of like a run
6:31graater, but like he does fit this movement style outside zone scheme of Mike McDaniel. He brings him over. They take Jake Slaughter in the second round.
6:38He's going to be potentially competing to start at left guard. It's just supremely better offensive line. And when I kind of because Keith Mitchell
6:45starting to get a little buzzed, too. I went under the hood and we have only this small sample of Omaran Hampton in
6:50the NFL, but Omarian Hampton has been a better outside zone runner than Katon Mitchell, too. So, um, you know, so it's
6:56like he fits this scheme well. He can catch passes. He's more of like a baseline pass catcher. Like you're not going to be doing things with a Marian
7:02Hampton like Mike McDaniel's doing at Devon Han. Like he's not going to be playing, you know, probably a lot of wide receiver and like a lot of slot,
7:08but he is a chromulent pass catcher if you need to check down to him. uh you know going back to college and then we
7:14saw him catch five or more passes in four of his games last year. So kind of just looking at everything for the
7:20Chargers and Marian Hampton ended up coming a little bullish. Ended up moving him up and I moved him up over a guy
7:24like Kenneth Walker who um I still like positive on too, but he's a guy have like now as a backend first round pick.
7:32>> Hampton is somebody I've been really high on and I'm with you. I have him over Ken Walker as well and it's it's a
7:38number of factors. It's the play caller change. I mean, you mentioned the stats with McDaniel. I mean, this this Dolphins backfield for the past three
7:44seasons has been top eight, top nine in fantasy points scored. I'm super bullish on the offensive line as well. You look
7:49at the splits on off with Rashawn Slater and Joe Walt off the field over the last couple seasons. They've they've basically gone from like 10th in EPA per
7:57play to like bottom five in EPA per play when both players are off the field. So, you say you're taking him over Ken
8:02Walker. Are you going as high as like taking him over Devon Achan?
8:08>> Oh, yeah. I I have him over Han because I mean it's just I you know if you listen to the shows I've done on this
8:13actual stream you know me and Scott kind of fought about Han a little bit. I just look at the touchdown equity right like
8:19Marian Hampton's legitimately a guy that could score 15 touchdowns this year and >> Devon Devon Ahan I think is a guy that
8:26maybe is going to be in like the six to 10 range based on you know so I I love touchdowns man. I'm a touchdown seeker
8:34in fantasy football.
8:36>> Yeah touchdowns are predictable. I think everybody kind of gets in this head space of like touchdowns aren't predictable. They're kind of random.
8:42It's like, well, if that were the case, then why is Dererick Henry scoring a touchdowns at a high rate every single
8:47year?
8:48>> I'm with you on Amari and Hampton. I love your bullishness. I love the flag plan on Hampton over Han. Are you going
8:53as bullish with him over Genty at this point?
8:56>> So, I have them backto back and I do have him over JT because I do think all the lateral pros for JT also exist for
9:05Hampton and they're better, right? like coordinator Clint Kubak to Mike McDaniel I think is still a favor of Mike McDaniel. Uh the their schedules are
9:14equally bad. So it's like one of those things if you're like you're not really So like we already seen the Raiders get
9:19impacted by um the the schedule last year, but uh the Chargers are a team I think can overcome it a little bit
9:24better. They're a little more equipped.
9:26Um and then you talk about just like still having Justin Herbert and a projected be higher scoring team. Like the Raiders are only favored in three
9:32games right now like on the schedule, you know, so it's like still really tough. I think all the pros you make for
9:38JTY, they exist for Hampton and they're probably, you know, just a little bit nudge up. I agree. I So Jenty last year, I mean, he
9:47he played on 80% over 80% of the snaps was a full-blown bellcow, but you look at the first four games before Omar and
9:54Hampton got hurt, he was RB7 in snap rate, 78 79%. He was a full-blown bellcow. It's a small sample, but I'm
10:01with you. I think there's Bellcow upside and it's just a significantly better offense. This was one of my bold takes, too, that Hampton outscores Genty. So, I
10:08love to get the Rich Rebar stamp of >> And I'm not down on JT at all either.
10:13Just, >> you know, >> dude, and he wasn't even like he was bad last year. He definitely did not pay off
10:17ADP, but he wasn't like a mega bust. He was like RB14 in in points per game. He just really needed some good game
10:23scripts down late in the season. Uh, like you mentioned, they're only favored in three games this year. I'm with you.
10:28>> Well, the one thing that the positive for for JT because we talk about too the offensive line we talk about the corner
10:33changing you know he's getting Colton Miller, Jackson Powers Johnson, Tyler Linderbal, but also you know we're getting Rashawn Slater, Joe Al Tyler
10:41Beadaz. Um but JT the one thing that you're the real positive is that just like we saw in college like you can just
10:48give this dude the ball a ton like an absolute ton like he soak up some touches. He can soak up some touches.
10:55that dude that is a skill and that's something I've been saying for years that like maybe okay maybe it's not a
11:00super valuable skill like one that you know running back then that can you know take on a lot of touches but it really
11:06is Jensy is absolutely a full-blown workhorse he could push for 380 touches this year and he might he might need to
11:12to pay off the cost I still kind of I'm a little I'm a lot lower on the Raiders offense than the Chargers but I'm with
11:17you I have them back to back as well I can't get Can you get to Hampton over James Cook I guess that's where I'm
11:22going with this I don't know if I can I can't I still have James Cook. I have James Cook also higher because the thing
11:28about James Cook is >> he if you look at just from like a ceiling perspective he has as many you know top top 24 scoring weeks as you
11:36know guys like Jir Gibbs and Bejian Robbins in the past two years and he's not that's while sharing touchdowns with Josh Allen and not catching passes and
11:44like they're already you know everyone's talked about like the Pete Carmichael factor and they've talked about getting the football more in the passing game
11:49and just like if he does start to catch some passes on top of what he does like I think he he could rival those guys if
11:55he was used in a similar fashion. I think he's the same type of running back as a Gibbs Bejon, but doesn't get the
12:00credit because he just hasn't been unlocked in the passing game yet. But he has that in his profile coming out of
12:05college as well.
12:06>> He does and that that was one of the things that with Cook like that I I earmarked that is like this is his like
12:12standout trait coming out of college.
12:13He's a great pass catcher. We just really haven't fully seen that in the pros. The Bills have wanted to use Tai
12:18Johnson to kind of keep him fresh, you know, on passing downs and on early downs. I'm with you. And we were just
12:22talk we were just talking about touchdowns, man. I mean, James Cook has what 31 touchdowns, 32 touchdowns his last 33 games. Uh, he has just been a
12:29touchdown machine. He has darkhorse RB1 upside. I think if if Jir Gibbs or Bjan, god forbid, were to miss time, we could
12:35be looking at James Cook as like a top two or top three weekly play in fantasy football. Rich Saquon Barkley is another
12:42one of your players that you've become a little higher on. I'm interested to hear if you've got him over Omar and Hansen.
12:48You're buying a bounce back here. Lane Johnson coming back for one last ride.
12:52We've got a new play caller this season getting rid of Kevin Patulo. Hopefully the offense is just a lot more competent. Uh last season the Eagles
13:00were painful to watch. Just absolutely painful to watch. Just so many stagnant 1v1 routes in the pass game. Their run game was was really struggling mainly
13:10because Lane Johnson and their offensive line was was struggling and really regressed last season. What are the reasons you're buying some of the
13:16bounceback hype for Saquon? Well, the Eagles in general, I think, are arguably one of the more fascinating teams of the offseason coming this year given the
13:23changes there went. And I'm very intrigued to see how the fit of, you know, moving on from AJ Brown, uh, hiring Shawn Manion, you know, hiring
13:31Chris Cooper to replace Jeff Stoutland, uh, you know, adding Mia Lemon, you know, potentially playing more under center, like how this impacts the
13:38passing game. But I do believe that there's more variance there based on like the way Jaylen Herz is as a prospect and is as a processor and
13:45throwing with anticipation and can this work. There's definitely upside there, but I do think the one thing that I think is going to be sturdy here for the
13:53Eagles is one, we know the defense is still going to be really good as long as they're healthy and they're still going
13:58to be like the the heart of this team is still going to be running the football and we're going to get a lot more under
14:02center runs. Um, and that just leads me to say like, all right, the Eagles because I want to play through the
14:07Eagles. Like there's teams too talented to just like outright say like they're going to fail. And even last year with Kevin Patulo
14:13completely getting in the way. Like they still won games and and completely like stacked uh you know stacked opportunities for these guys. It's just
14:21you know the offense was just a high school off high school level offense. Um and it really was. But you look at
14:28Barkley you know it's funny because you know you go back two years ago I was higher on Barkley than the field the
14:34year he like smashed. Last year I was below the market on him because we knew there was going to be like natural
14:38regression and like regression works in mysterious ways and like we didn't know like they were going to run a high school offense and like the offensive
14:43line get banged up. But he went from second yards per carry to 33rd, 14th to 39th in success rate. Uh eighth to 25th
14:50in explosive run rate, uh 20th to 47th in stuff rate. Uh he went from 2.64 yards before contact per rush in 2024
14:59down to 1.36 before contact per rush last year. That was 38th. The Eagles starting offensive line played 41.9% of the offensive snaps together last year.
15:09Cam Jurgens missed three games. Landon Dickerson two, Lane Johnson eight. Uh they all missed multiple weeks over the season uh at a time too where like they
15:17were missing two of these guys at once.
15:19Um we talked about Stoutland, you know, stepping away this off season. Uh Chris Cooper was brought in, you know, and then we had Shawn Manion. They've all
15:27talked about like playing, you know, more wider outside zone stuff, you know, getting linemen on the move more. And Barkley though when he still was given a
15:34runway was still Saquon Barkley last year. I mean 6.6 yards per rush when he wasn't hit behind or at the line. He
15:39still had five touchdowns of 10 or more yards. Um and then the other avenue we have here is like what if he's used a
15:45little bit more in the passing game this year. Now he still plays with Jaylen Herz so I don't think there's going to
15:49be like a like a huge huge spike here.
15:52But when you look at the absence of AJ Brown here, I mean Saquon has been targeted on 17% of his routes. It's 110
15:59route sample with AJ Brown off the field the past two seasons. So, we just get him like maybe to like where like
16:05Jonathan Taylor was as a receiver last year, you know, getting him into that range where he's adding that. There are two things that I think do are a little
16:13nervous though about Barkley. One is we don't know like just what the Eagles are going to do with the tush push. There's
16:19been like kind of some whispers that maybe they won't lean on as much. I think it would be a mistake if they just
16:24completely scrapped it because it's still such an advantageous play and anything that they want to run opposite of this is probably just going to be
16:30more uh a gift to the defense. So the past two years Saquon just hasn't had those really scoring opportunities. I mean he had six carries from the one and
16:38two yard line in 2024 and he only had four last year. Um they still should use the tush push. It just we don't know if
16:43they will use it to the same degree. And the Eagles have an amazing schedule this year. They have our fourth easiest
16:48rushing schedule this year. So, I think like as the defense is playing well and as they're trying to iron out this
16:53passing game, they're just going to be able to lean on the run. Now, the one caveat here though is they and if you
16:59get to the fantasy playoffs with the Eagles, they play Seattle, Houston the the opening two playoff games. So, he's more of like I think a guy that I'll be
17:08targeting in like the the baseball format like um as being a value, but they can manage leagues. I think he's going to be a high advance rate player
17:16and then maybe he's a low advance rate in the playoffs guy.
17:19>> Yeah, that's that's totally fair. I'm viewing Saquon as kind of like last year's Jonathan Taylor in a way where he's just like, you know, probably
17:26underpriced based on talent and then yeah, what if the situation does get a whole lot better? I mean, this offense, Rich, with with Lane Johnson, it's been
17:33like night and day. You look at the EPA splits with Lane Johnson on and off the field. They've gone from top three in
17:39EPA per play over the last two seasons to just right around average when he's not on the field. And Saquon Hat was
17:44Saquin last year by mistackle force per touch here at Fantasy Point. He had the same exact mistackle force per touch that he did in his his breakout 25
17:52season, excuse me, 24 season. Uh, you know, it's just really was the quality of the offense and the offensive line really struggling. And I remember Rich,
18:00you were you were all over Saquon two years ago in 2024. You were basically like everybody's kind of overthinking this. He's he's an elite player going to
18:07an elite offense and he ends up rushing for 2,000 yards. I don't think we're projecting that type of crazy season, but I could certainly see a JT like400
18:15yard, 10 touchdown. He catches 40 balls and he's like, you know, the RB3 on the season this year.
18:22>> Rich, this has been awesome so far. If you have not already followed Rich Freebar, do so on Twitter. You can
18:28follow him, Lord Reeves, get all of his awesome content at Sharp Football. Rich, we'll pivot over to receiver here. Going through some of the receivers that you
18:38are a little higher on than the market, some players that you have come around on >> significantly in recent weeks. We'll get
18:45started with one AJ Brown.
18:49>> Uh yeah, >> AJ Brown going to the Patriots. Gets the quarterback upgrade with Drake May.
18:54>> The prices come up, man. The price uh the prices come up on AJ Brown, but we all kind of expected that. Uh he's now
19:00going in the mid-second round. You're buying it though.
19:04>> I am. And and I know we're going to have a couple receivers here that are kind of clustered up like more towards the front
19:09of the draft because the last month when I came on and did like the flag plant show, it was actually like in the
19:14receivers in the tiers below these guys.
19:16So, if you combine with that, like we're going to have like 10 receivers like through like the opening eight rounds that like I I'm like, "All right, these
19:22guys all have a lot of pros uh that that are they're checking off a lot of things that I that I like." AJ Brown definitely
19:28is a guy, you know, obviously the knee stuff is is we're going to price in a little bit the age and the and the and
19:33the knee factor, but this guy when he still saw we saw him in that offense that we just talked about, the Kevin
19:38Patula offense from weeks 11 through 17 last year, I mean, he was fourth in receptions, fifth in receiving yards. He had 95 or more yards in four of those
19:47games, 300 yard games. He has the wide receiver five in fantasy points per game over that stretch. And we talk about
19:52that Kevin Patulo offense. I mean, 24% of his routes last year were hitches, highest rate of his career. Uh, he he
19:59went after an 8.2% crossing route rate in 2024, he went to 5.8% last year, the second lowest rate of his career. And
20:05like AJ Brown is still like a big guy you want moving in space horizontally because he's going to break tackles and
20:12he still is a rugged player. Um, he also had a career low 24 targets on play action last year. Uh you look at the
20:18past three seasons, Brown's rate of play action targets 22% in 2023, 25.8% in 2024, 19.8% in 2025. The previous three
20:29years before that, 33.9% 42% 37%. Significant drop off as they he's you know, Jaylen Herz has been under shock in shotgun not under center
20:40more. the past four seasons with the Eagles, AJ Brown has 19 total targets with his quarterback under center. Um, and we know like these are all
20:49efficiency hacks now in this current iteration of this cat and mouse game between the offensive and defensive meta on 420 career routes though with his
20:56quarterback under center AJ Brown 4.4 yards per route run. Uh, going to New England Drake May 10th in snaps under center last year. Jaylen Herz was 29th.
21:06Uh, and then we're getting just more accurate downfield targets than he was getting with Jaylen Herz. Um, on throws are 10 or more yards downfield last
21:13year. Drake May 61% completion rate, second in the NFL. Uh, he was he was number one in the NFL in yards for pass
21:19attempt on those throws. There'll probably be some natural regression there. Uh, just keeping up that level of efficiency. But this is a better
21:25downfield. I would argue this is still the best quarterback Jaylen Herz has played with in his career to this point.
21:31The other thing is Josh McDaniels. Like that's the one thing that's getting overlooked in this kind of uh transition with AJ Brown too is not he's only
21:38getting like a scheme and efficiency hack in terms of the types of targets he'll get. Josh McDaniels has been a wide receiver one bully man. I mean he's
21:45had some attachments this monster seasons from wide receiver ones.
21:49Obviously the ludicrous Randy Moss season, but even in 2022 when he had we had Dvonte Adams the Raiders. I mean 100
21:54catches, 1500 yards, 14 touchdowns. Um big time big time boom for AJ Brown. I think he's probably in play still to be
22:02like uh maybe not compete with like wide receiver one overall anymore, but this is a guy I believe is going to be a firm
22:08like high upside on a weekly basis. And just look what Stefan Diggs did last year playing with Drake May. And Stefan
22:15Diggs only ran a route on 63% of the drop backs. He was literally on the field like twothirds of the plays. And
22:21AJ Brown's going to be a have a while healthy is going to have a huge immensely higher snap rate than Stefan
22:27Diggs had. Yeah, Diggs was wide receiver 25 in PPR points per game. He was 32 coming off a torn ACL. And then like you
22:33mentioned, he was a part-time player and he was like a really strong like wide receiver too for most of the season. Had
22:38some wide receiver one spiked weeks. I'm with you on AJ Brown. I've been one of the biggest AJ Brown Bulls here at
22:43Fantasy Points. And I love that you mentioned Josh McDaniels. You mentioned the play caller upgrade. This is also just a significant upgrade in terms of
22:51pass volume, too. I mean, this this Patriots pass offense was fifth in pass rate over expectation last year. The Eagles have never ranked higher than
22:5711th in pass rate over expectation in any of the last four seasons. So, we're getting a big volume upgrade here as
23:03well. And I'm just with you, Drake May is 100% the best quarterback AJ Brown's played with. No disrespect at all to
23:09Jaylen Herz. I've always been a Jaylen Herz truther. He's incredible against man coverage, but you the splits really widen uh when Drake May gets zone
23:17coverage. He really improved against zone last year. And AJ Brown, I think he fits perfectly within this offense.
23:23Rich, one thing that we didn't talk about here too is like I think there's significantly less target competition too. Like no disrespect or shade to
23:30Romeo Dubs or Hunter Henry, but like they're not target earners to the same level of Dvontto Smith and Dallas Goddard.
23:36>> Yeah, 100%. And it's a team that's going to throw the football more just top down like you said. So it's less competition,
23:42more access to targets there. It's an it's an improvement of the types of targets he's going to be getting. It just kind of and like the one the one
23:49kind of pullback is just like you know is he a guy that's going to be kind of you know nicked up or be kind of uh you
23:55know a guy that's a you know on the injury report you know at times but that those are things like we that's out of
24:00our control right and you know you can only price in so far and one thing consistent that you've seen so far like
24:06this this is another guy like has doubledigit touchdown potential.
24:09>> Yes. Yeah. He's done it twice in his career. Uh I believe twice in his career. He did it first year with the
24:14Eagles. Yeah. the availability, man.
24:16Like I think every like half of NFL players have arthritic knees by the time they're like 30 years old. So yeah,
24:22sure. Okay. Yeah, he's probably got some problems in his knees, but it's like, dude, half the NFL does at this point,
24:27too. Uh I'm very, very high on AJ Brown.
24:29I think he makes a ton of sense. You get your running back one in the first round, come back at AJ Brown in the
24:33middle of the second round. He's going to be a key target on all of my teams.
24:38We'll flip it over to the other side of the fantasy fallout from this move.
24:41Devonte Smith gets a huge upgrade obviously in terms of his projected target share. He's going to be battling for targets with Mai Limmon and Dallas
24:48Goddard this season. You know, we looked we looked at this. I mean, Devont Smith in terms of first read target share even
24:53with AJ Brown on the field, he's hovered around 28 to 30% over the last couple of seasons. Rich, does he have the alpha
25:01level target earning potential in this Eagles offense to targets? We'll give we'll give credit where it's due with Nick Serriani. At least he does this.
25:09the targets do consolidate in his offense which we appreciate in fans.
25:12>> Yeah. They're not throwing to Jan Datson those years.
25:14>> Yeah, bro. I I I love that. At least at least we can bank on that. [laughter] >> Yeah, that's a you know what we love
25:20about these play cards is get our best foot guys the football as much as pos as much as we can. Yeah. I mean Devonte
25:25Smith I think people actually have forgotten what kind of prospect Devonte Smith was. Like this is the last wide receiver to win the Heisman Trophy. like
25:32this this dude had 1,800 yards in an offense, you know, playing with Jaylen Wadd, like playing with like a lot of
25:38talent at Alabama, was out here dropping 200 yards, you know, in bowl games against Ohio State. Like, he was an absolute demon of a prospect. He's done
25:47nothing but reinforce his level of play in the NFL. He's just been playing with another target earner in a low volume
25:53passing offense. And there is potential for, you know, Mai Lemon, Dantavian Wixs, Dallas, these guys to kind of maybe have more targets spread out. But
26:02there's also an opportunity to where like he just completely dominates this target tree as well. And none of these guys are are completely taking steps up
26:09because they're just not on the level of of caliber of talent that he is. Um we talk about like the offense changing uh
26:16you know changing hands from Kevin Patula to to Shawn Manion. You know, potentially getting more under center uh looks, more play action stuff that we
26:23really have access to this offense. That would be good for him as well. But really, it's just, you know, since you
26:28know, AJ Brown is vacating all of these targets and routes. seen anytime AJ Brown just hasn't played over the past two years or has been off the field.
26:35Devonte Smith has just gone nuts. I mean, he's run 252 routes with him off the field. Uh he's been targeted on 29%
26:42of his routes on those play. 37% team target share, 2.6 yards per out run.
26:47Now, those there's a difference between AJ Brown missing a game and you having to calibrate your offense be be than coming into the season without AJ Brown.
26:55and they talk about these other players, but those numbers are so gaudy that he can have reduction in those and still
27:02like be operating at like wide receiver front end wide receiver one levels in terms of target share and uh you know
27:08target rate per route run. We've had a four game sample of him running 20 or more routes in a game with AJ Brown off
27:13the field and he's averaging just under 20 PPR points per game in those games.
27:18Uh like and again like this I just go back to the caliber of player this guy was um and I don't want to overthink it
27:25because this guy was an elite talent like as a Bulletnikov winner and he's getting an opportunity now in the apex of his career to carry a passing game.
27:33Uh so he's a guy I I look at like he's kind of more of a of a an ADP pick. Like
27:40you got to kind of pick your poison. I do like a couple guys more than him that we'll talk about here in this tier. Uh
27:46but also like if he's like the last man standing like I absolutely want to gobble him up while I can.
27:51>> Yeah. You mentioned the volume with AJ Brown off the field by XFP last season or over the last two seasons when Brown
27:57has missed time. He's been like a you know very very solidly a low-end wide receiver one by expected fantasy points per game and then yeah I mean he's
28:04certainly a player who can absolutely deliver those spiked weeks and give you the efficiency over what his expected volume is because he is so good at the
28:12game. You mentioned a few of the players that you're taking ahead of him. We'll we'll get to those in just a minute. But
28:17like I've noticed a big spread in Devonte Smith's ADP on sharp on sharp platforms like FFPC underdog. He's solidly like front end third round pick.
28:25But bro on Sleeper he's going like 45 overall on ESPN and Yahoo and managed leagues like he is he is way way too
28:31cheap. I think that does come up. It's not really a totally real ADP, but I I think the markets are still kind of
28:38sleeping on Devont Smith's upside in this offense for sure.
28:42>> Yeah, absolutely. like said the uh the one thing about the the Eagles is like they have that great schedule where I do
28:48believe that they're going to like we're going to have a high advance rate for I think a lot of the Eagles the core
28:52Eagles and then you know again we do have Seattle Houston looming it is one of those things I want people to kind of
28:58just get at least keep in the back of their minds you got to get to the dance first and what's a problem we'll deal
29:02with and you know week 15 16 and I think he's a talented enough receiver if you're just giving him a 30% target
29:07share he can still get over against tough matchups but it is something I just want people to to keep up.
29:13>> Yeah. Yeah. And it's the Texans in particular are one that I I have earmarked as well. I mean, that defense
29:18was just shutting everybody down at the end of last season. Obviously, Seahawks ran super hot. Uh we'll see if they can
29:25they can keep up their their magic with all the safeties and everything that McDonald was doing last year. Uh but yeah, I I think you're just dead on. I
29:32mean, the Eagles beyond those two games, uh they have by Vegas win totals, it's like a top 10, easiest strength of
29:38schedule this year. And it's it's completely flipped. I mean, this was a, you know, a team that had a bottom three
29:42strength of schedule last season. One player that you might be taking over Dvont Smith. I don't want to put words in your mouth. This is a player that
29:48I've come around on significantly as well as Z Flowers. Finally, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. You know, they produced a top 12, top 15 fantasy wide
29:56receiver last year, but now this offense should consolidate even further. Zay Flowers had a 28% target share last season. His target share has climbed in
30:04each of his three seasons in the NFL.
30:06And now he's just got I mean he's got full-blown alpha target potential in this Ravens offense. Rich, we're talking about touchdowns. This has kind of been
30:13a running theme of this show. Bro, Lamar Jackson Lamar Jackson is capable of 9% touchdown rate spike deficiency. Like that's that's the type of player he is.
30:21Zay has run cold on touchdowns in his career, but I'm I think this could be a year where Zade like finally gets like
30:28beyond the five four and five touchdowns that he's been on in his career. he gets up to like eight or nine and that might
30:32be all he really needs to get up to eight or nine touchdowns to really be like a top eight, top 10 consistent
30:38fantasy wide receiver.
30:40>> And that still is the the looming question I think to have him vault because all the other peripherals are in
30:45place for for Z Flowers to be a fantasy football wide receiver one. I know he's not largely thought about that. Um but
30:52you know all he's increased his yardage every year in the NFL. Um you know he was wide receiver five in target share
30:59last year. uh 36% of the team air yards, wide receiver six in in yards per out run. He actually too on plays with an
31:05actual pass attempt because yards per out run gets some noise in where like you know if your quarterback scrambles or gets sacked like you're running a
31:11route that doesn't even it didn't have a a target on the play. He actually jumps to over three yards per out run on those
31:17plays when there's actual a throw on the drop back. Now that's something he'll have to deal with because he plays with
31:21Lamar Jackson. But he's even he's even better like in in terms of >> dank stat Rich that's super dank cuz that you're right. I mean, Lamar's going
31:29to scramble like 10 12% of his drop back.
31:31>> Yeah, it was he only Puka and JSN were higher than him on yards per out run on plays with an actual pass attempt last
31:37year uh at wide receiver. So, again, he again he'll have to deal with that. But it really is kind of the the touchdown
31:43equity. Can we get him over the hurdle?
31:44He has 16 touchdowns in three NFL seasons. He has 18 career end zone targets. Last year, he only had five.
31:51His target shares in the red zone to his career 20%, 11% 19%. his target shares outside the red zone. 23% as a rookie,
32:0128% his second year, 30% last year. We just got to have a marriage and we it does take a step of faith. But I think
32:08when you look at Declan Doyle, who spent time with obviously a large section with Shawn Payeyton and then under Ben Johnson last year, what do those guys do
32:17a little bit differently than Mon is it's not the downfield stuff. It's more that horizontal the horizontal route stuff. and they they do get those guys
32:25moving in space and if Zay Flowers can just get red zone targets, he's never made a clasher. Like you're not running
32:29fade routes with Zay Flowers. But you look at like what Ben Johnson did with like Aman Ross St. Brown, right? Um and
32:35what we've seen like Shawn Payeyton do with guys like Michael Thomas, who's definitely a bigger body than Ze Flowers, but these these horizontal
32:42routes like moving cross field, Brandon Cooks is probably a better example in the Shawn Peyton offense than than Michael Thomas off top of my head. If we
32:48can just get him some more of those, that's how he gets over the hurdle. That does take a little bit of step of faith,
32:53but I think that's priced in, right? And I think when you look at where the pocket receiver, Zay Flowers, is going
32:58up against, his offensive environment, I think, is better than a lot of the guys he goes along with. Um, especially if we
33:05get Lamar Jackson, who was kind of murial at the end of last season and they moved on. Like he won kind of the
33:11internal war that was probably going on with him and Harbaugh and Mckin. But under center rate has gone up for Lamar
33:17Jackson in each of the past two years.
33:19It it significantly went up last year.
33:21went from 16.6% in 2024 to 29% last year. It could go up even higher. And when you get Lamar Jackson under center
33:28with Derrick Henry the past three years, he's led the NFL in completion rate under center. 75% nine yards per pass attempt. That's the QB5 and a league
33:37high 11% touchdown rate. So, we need those touchdowns still, I think, to get over. But, I think when you look at the
33:43guys he goes up against, um, he's I'm like more interested in him than like Garrett Wilson still, right? Like I still want Z Flowers over Garrett
33:50Wilson. Um him and Maki is is a little bit tougher, but I do think that there's probably a little bit more target equity
33:58for Z Flowers than Makanki, but I'm still very into Maki as well. But like T McMillan, I'd rather have Z Flowers.
34:05>> Oh yeah. Yeah. I'd much rather I'd rather have Zay than McMillan. It's really just like an offensive quality and and quarterback type situation. We
34:12throw T McMillan on the Ravens offense.
34:14I think we'd all be very very excited about him. Lamar Jackson, man, I I think early in his career, he really struggled
34:20with the accuracy, but over the last three seasons, by completion rate over expectation, he's been top three. And even last year, while injured, playing
34:26with the injured hamstring, he was top three in completion rate over expectation. So, I think we always we think of Lamar Jackson as this like like
34:33obviously freak athlete who's capable of scoring at any point of the field, but he's also become like a legitimately pinpoint accurate passer. And yeah, I
34:41think I think Zay just has huge potential this year to catch 95 to 100 balls in PPR leagues. I think he's going
34:46to be one of the highest floor players in fantasy this year. And the great news, Rich, is like you can, you know,
34:52take one, two running backs in the first two rounds, come back and get Zay in the third. Uh, I'm I'm with you. I have him
34:57over over Lad Manki. And I think it is because the target earning potential. I do think Quinton Johnston can take a
35:02step forward in that offense. We didn't really talk about this with Omar Hampton, but Mike McDaniel is a very like historically he's been a very slow
35:09paced coach, >> skewing towards runheavy. In those early Miami years, he was a lot more pass heavy. I think he just trusted Tua more.
35:17Maybe that was before Tu Tua got all busted up, but he's been a very slow paced, pretty runheavy coach. Uh, you
35:23know, obviously the Ravens have been very runheavy, too, but we've seen some, you know, some spiked huge spiked efficiency seasons with Lamar. Uh, I'm
35:30just with you on Z. I think >> the other outcome too that and no one wants to put this into existence. I
35:35don't even want to put it into his distance. But I mean, listen, eventually Father Time always wins and eventually like Derrick Henry is not going to like
35:45he's not going to have 300 touches. And like their depth behind Derrick Henry is not good. And if like Derrick Henry were
35:51to ever miss any piece of time, like they're going to be a passing team.
35:57>> They would be forced to. I mean, they're not going to give the ball to Rashine Ali, Rich. I mean, Justice Hill, like
36:02what are we doing? Adam Randle's pretty fun, but like he's not gonna like he's pretty raw still. He's only been playing
36:07the position two years. Like if Derrick Henry were to even like miss like a four-week stretch or anything like they're going to be a P they would just
36:13swerving to be a passing team.
36:15>> Yeah, that's a good call, too. There is a little bit of hidden upside with Z, I'm with you on that. I'm I'm very
36:20bullish on Z. It's a player that I've never I've never really been super bullish on, but this is the first year,
36:25especially at this price. I think it just makes a ton of sense, especially in PPR leagues. Rich, we'll pivot over to
36:30the Texans. We're going to talk Texans for a pretty much the majority of the show here. I'm I think the Texans are
36:36kind of like a sleeping like they could be a really good team, man. This is a team that's got a nine and a half win to
36:419 and a half team win total. The defense is obviously incredible. Going to be in a lot of good game script, which I think
36:46will help the run game, but Nico Collins is probably the most underrated receiver in the NFL still. Uh his separation metrics here at Fantasy Points data are
36:54off the charts good. He's he's legitimately good at every single route.
37:00Nico, I'm I'm kind of buying this year, man. I was in on Nico last year. It didn't really work out as well as I
37:06wanted it to at the two-3 turn, but the good news, Rich, is the price or one two turn last year. Now he's going near the
37:12two-3 turn. Price has come down and not much has really changed. They're getting Tank Dell back. We'll see what he can
37:17contribute. Jaden Higgins and Jayen Nol obviously entering their second year, but it hasn't really mattered. When Nico Collins is on the field, this target,
37:24this offense runs through him and he he's consistently been at the top of the league and first read target share.
37:29Yeah, I mean he feels like such a gift when you get Bejan or Gibbs and you can get you can get him back uh you know
37:35coming back at that two three turn.
37:37Well, in general, so I'm writing a team regression series this week. We're always just like you know teams that >> you know we our blind bets to just like
37:44be better than they were last year and have improvement and like the I've written the whole series already and they're all coming out. The first two
37:51articles are are live that the one we have one coming out today on uh Thursday, one on Friday. And one team
37:56that pops up in all four articles is the Houston Texans. Uh they scored 8.4 touchdowns below expectations last year, only the Saints and Titans were worse.
38:06Um the if you look at historically uh teams in that bucket uh since 2010, 83% of the teams that fit that criteria came
38:15back the following season scored more touchdowns with an average increase of 10 team touchdowns per season. Also, the Houston Texans were one of five teams
38:24last year that kicked more field goals than they scored offensive touchdowns.
38:27Uh, you know, in that same bucket, uh, you know, we've had 72 teams since 2010 do that. And of those teams, 75% of
38:36those teams come back the following season and score more touchdowns with an average increase of 11 and a half touchdowns uh, per team. So, it's like,
38:43man, this is a team that I'm just like already penciling in to have and this team is good, right? Like it's like when
38:49you talk about like the maybe like a team like that consistently shows up in this series too as well. Like the Jets,
38:54you still have to take a step of faith of like they're probably going to be a bad team still. Like the Texans are
38:58going to be a good team and they have like functional pieces. So it's like they could actually be one of these
39:02teams that make one of these jumps. Like if you were to tell me the Texans had like in their range of outcomes like a
39:07Seahawks type season of last year. I like why not? Why couldn't they, right?
39:11Like in terms of offensive efficiency, they have all the pieces. Um, even at this point last year, people thought that te uh the Seattle offensive line
39:19wasn't good. And I would argue on paper like the Texans have done a lot this offseason to improve their offensive line. And I think while not having, you
39:26know, maybe JSN level, uh, if you don't consider an Eagle Collins at JSN level, like their depth is better as pass
39:33catchers than what Seattle had last year, too. So, I totally look at Houston as being this potentially just underrated team by even the market in
39:39terms of like maybe even like Super Bowl betting. Now, obviously, you got to bet on CJ Stroud to win a Super Bowl. That's
39:44something we'll get to. But when you look at Nico Collins, I think he's the most disrespected like pure alpha wide receiver. I think in the NFL, I mean, he
39:52still like all his per per route stuff, all of his team equity stuff was amazing. Like he was the wide receiver
39:5911 and share of targets. He's a wide receiver seven and share of area yards, wide receiver 12 yards per out run. The
40:04other interesting thing is he was better when they actually played the young guys. And it's not shocking, right?
40:10Because when you put Xavier Hutchinson and Christian Kirk on the field, it's a it's good for the defense. They can just
40:16focus it on Nico Collins. But I thought it was interesting. He ran 111 routes last year with both Jaden Higgins and
40:21Jaylen Null on the field and his numbers went up on those plays. Like he was actually better and more efficient because probably the offense was better
40:28and more efficient because they weren't playing Xavier Hutchinson and Christian Kirk. Uh the one bugaboo for him is again he hasn't played a full season,
40:35right? like he hasn't he hasn't been on the field uh for a full season in 5 years. But you we know you're
40:40injuryprone to you're not. Um I just look at this team though and maybe Nick Kay is a donkey and we're going to find
40:46like to me I'm willing to give Nick Kayley one season for a hall pass for what he did last year cuz was it because
40:52the running game wasn't good? The wide receivers were banged up when they were rotating wide receivers. Um but they they were 21st in pre uh snap motion
41:01rate. They were 19th in play action rate. But when Straoud did get to use play action, he was 10th in yards for
41:07pass attempt, seventh in yards for completion. When he did get to use motion, he was seventh in yards for pass attempt, ninth in yards per completion.
41:13And the big bene uh beneficiary of all that when they did do creative things was Nico Collins. 2.8 yards per out run
41:21on play action. Uh again, the base rate for wide receivers, that's a full yard better than that. 2.42 yards with uh
41:28motion on the play. Base rate is 1.5 for receivers. Those are top 10 numbers for a player with his overall target total.
41:34So again, like when when you can get one of these Bejian uh Jir Gibbs teams and you can come back with Nico Collins, uh
41:40it it feels just like a home run.
41:42>> I'm with I'm with you. It feels like you're stealing. I've done a number of teams this year from that one-two
41:47position and Nico is like always at the top of my draft queue. It just feels like stealing. I think we'll talk CJ
41:52Strad here in a moment, too. But like every he's kind of been meme'd. He's been a meme'd player this off seasonason
41:58and I think once you get me'd, you know, there's there's a there's kind of like a boomerang risk factor where he just comes back around. CJ
42:04Strad last season was QB1 in EPA per drop back. Like he he wasn't good. He wasn't that good, but he I mean he
42:11wasn't terrible last season either. Uh you know, and you mentioned that the the offense just kind of like massively underwhelmed its touchdown expectations.
42:19Uh, I I think there's a chance here with Straoud getting, you know, Tank Dell back in the fold, Jaylen Nol, Jaden
42:23Higgins back, uh, kind of get, you know, improving in their second year, and then Nico Collins. A lot of his injuries,
42:28man, they've been like hard luck. He's like pulled his hamstring, pulled his calf, he had a concussion there. It's nothing like majorly structurally wrong
42:35with his knees or anything like that.
42:36It's just been a lot of hard luck injuries. So, I'm with you. I think this is a season where, you know, you kind of
42:41have to put all that behind you. Put put the injuries behind you with Nico, uh, and move forward with what the
42:46projection is. And I think in terms of what he, you know, where he went last year and where he's going this year,
42:50there's there's not much not much that's really changed. I think in terms of the value equation, he probably should be going at that closer to the one two
42:57turn. Uh, you know, where he was last year. Uh, Rich, one final receiver we'll talk about today is a player that I've
43:04also come around on. Uh, started doing analysis in in May. I was kind of like, man, Amika Ibuka is a little overpriced.
43:09I still think he might be a little overpriced based on where he, you know, what he produced last season. But you
43:14take Mike Evans out of this offense, Baker Mayfield should be fully healthy again this year. Baker dealt with probably what 15, 16 injuries last year.
43:22The guy played through everything.
43:23Mikbukas is a classic secondyear breakout type wide receiver. I still have questions, Rich, and maybe you can kind of assuade some of these these
43:31questions about just like his true alpha level target earning potential. But maybe that doesn't really matter in this offense when he's competing for targets
43:38with, you know, an aging Chris Godwin and Jaylen McMillan and Ted Hurst.
43:42>> Yeah. and I still do as well. Um, just because like he he didn't really, you know, have high-end numbers against like
43:49man coverage last year. Uh, that's still like the one hurdle I still think we need to see him clear. But I mean, just
43:55the target potential and then this offense in general, I just like as I went under the hood and started to do
44:01more research on the Bucks, like this team I feel like is a high shootout team. Uh, I mean, you look at one, the
44:07hiring of Zack Robinson, I think is actually underrated because I think you people just look at Zack Robinson when he did it in Atlanta and, you know, kind
44:14of maybe count that as a strike against him. But Zack Robinson literally runs the exact same offensive system that Liam Cohen runs and was there when Baker
44:22Mayfield stopped by in 2022. Baker had that awesome year with Liam Cohen in 2024. I think we're going to see a lot
44:28more uh variations of that offense, you know, of what Zack Robinson and what we've seen Liam Cohen do and what Shawn
44:34McVey does show up more in Tampa Bay.
44:36They had to be one of the more static shotgun teams the past two years because one, if you remember two years ago, Kirk
44:42Cousins was coming off of the Achilles and just couldn't play under center. He couldn't move. Remember that year? Like he just couldn't move. And then Michael
44:48Pennix has never played under center. So I think they were forced to be like in shotgun a little bit more. I think we're
44:52going to see um a lot more balance this year playing with this offensive line.
44:58And that was just completely nuked last year. I mean, you look at last year, I mean, like Cody Mock missed basically
45:04the entire season after week two. Chris Tristan Worfs missed games. Like, they were they were just deep in the bag at
45:09offensive line injuries. Luke got only played 11 games. Ben Breden only played in 11 games. Like, they were leaning on some really poor depth, the guys that
45:18they were counting on in terms of starting. And then when you look at the Bucks defense, dude, their front seven looks absolutely gnarly. Uh, you know,
45:27obviously you've got big VT, like he's gonna be doing his thing. You know, you got Clyde Hansy, but they brought in Aan
45:32Robinson, they draft Ruben Bane, they draft Josiah Trout in round two, and they bring in Alex Analone. Like, this front seven looks awesome. You know what
45:39doesn't look awesome? Their secondary.
45:42It looks awful. They are going to be a pass funnel. like oh my goodness they are play like their whole depth is
45:49nothing but like day three undrafted uh you know free agents. Zan McCollum's their lead corner. He's been very boomer bust so far in the NFL. Uh Antoine
45:59Winfield's still a really good player.
46:00They're like their only like plus player in their secondary. But Tyiki Smith starting s the other starting safety was really poor last year. Uh Benjamin
46:08Morrison who's their right quarterback project to be their right corner. He was awful last year. Jacob Parist Nickelback was awful last year. anytime they were
46:16missing Jamal Dean last year, they got crushed by wide receivers. I think they're gonna be like a pretty high shootout team because they they remind
46:22me of like the Lions from a couple years ago. Do you remember like the Lions where they were just they were just
46:27shutting teams out against the run, but their secondary was bad and it was like, "Hey, you should think about like giving
46:32up some rushing yards because you're just making teams attack you through the air." I think that's what's going to we're going to see the like a lot of
46:38Bucks games operate. But, you know, getting back to Ibuka, I just think when you have a first round talent have like
46:44his section of hitting the ground running in the NFL, like I don't want to throw that out, you know, based on the
46:49back half cuz especially with his opportunity with Mike Evans being gone because we saw last year, um, he I mean, he ran almost 400 routes with Mike Evans
46:58off the field. He had a 26%, you know, target share per out run. Like, if you're giving me in like that type of
47:04game environments a 26 plus percent target share, like, I'm going to play that. I'm just gonna play that volume.
47:10Uh especially where I think, you know, they brought in guys like Ted Hurst and Jaylen McMillan coming back who can kind
47:15of maybe play like that, not full sacrificial X, but soak up of some of those on ball targets where I Buuka, if
47:21he still has those man coverage splits versus zone, uh can, you know, have just more free releases and still get open
47:28and maybe even move around in the slot when Chris Godwin's not being there. But he's going to be mostly like that in
47:32that Z role in this offense. And in general, like just like the what happened to the Bucks, I think is adjacent to what happened to the
47:39Chargers. Like what happened to the back half of the year, like I just don't really stock it. You know, Baker Mayfield, you brought up ankle, knee,
47:47oblique, shoulder injury. Uh after his after the week nine buy, uh he completed just 64% of his passes, seven yards for
47:55pass attempt. Um or I'm sorry, that was before the week nine buy and then he went to 62% completion rate, six and a
48:00half yards for passing. He threw nine interceptions. Uh, Ebuka had the highest offtarget rate in the NFL after that point of the season. He had his own
48:08hamstring injury, too, in the middle of the year. So, I I mean, I just I just think from a team environment and volume
48:13stance, like, this is a guy that honestly could get 150 plus targets in in an offense that could really be playing in some shootouts. So, I don't
48:21want to leave that on the table.
48:23>> I don't want to leave it on the table either. And that's part of the reason I've come around, too. It's like, yeah,
48:27he was, you know, earning targets at a pretty decent rate last year, but I went back and looked. I mean, Baker Mayfield
48:32in 2024 when he was fully healthy, had no injuries. He had an 81% catchable throw rate. Here at Fantasy Points data,
48:38that was QB3. Last year, that sunk all the way down to like 75%. He was outside of the top 20 quarterbacks entirely in
48:44catchable throw rate. So, it a little bit, it was a little bit of both, right?
48:47Like young player, rookie season, probably not fully versed in the offense, but also like Baker just was not himself last year. his completion
48:53rate over expectations sunk to -2%. He's always he's never going to be like a, you know, pinpoint Joe Burrow, Brock Pery level passer where he's pushing
49:01five or 6%. But he's always been above average. I think this is a huge play caller upgrade, too. This is something I
49:07talked about with Ryan Heath a couple of weeks ago when we break broke down his play callers uh article. Like going from
49:13Zack Robinson to Josh Grizzard is huge.
49:15And I'm I'm just with you. There's some like just he was severely Robinson was severely limited by his quarterback last season and in prior seasons as well with
49:23the Falcons. You look at basically Baker Mayfield over the last couple years off of play action. Something that I think that this is going to spike with this
49:32offense this year. I mean he was like QB4 QB5 and EPA per drop back off play action and those you know as we've been
49:37talking about these are you know spiked type of plays for the receivers as well.
49:42Uh Igbuka where in terms of price rich he is like you know right there at the 34 turn.
49:48>> He's been climbing.
49:49>> He's been climbing too man. Yeah he's he's gone from like 38 or 39 ADP to like 34 35 as well. You taking him over lad
49:58or is that a >> point? I I think so. I have them overlaid and I talked about this a little bit with uh with Theo and Scott
50:04is just, you know, if I'm if I have two receivers closely together, I usually almost break the tie with with volume,
50:12right? Like just I'm just going to chase the I'm gonna play the volume. Um I do like Glad a lot still, too. But that's
50:17I'm breaking I'm splitting the hairs with just like he could have maybe 40 more targets than Lad.
50:23>> Yes, he could. And I love your point about how this Bucks team could be the Lions of 2024. I remember that year,
50:28dude. They were giving up like 2.9 yards per carry, but just getting smoked every single >> Well, that might be honestly, dude, that
50:37might be the Lions of this year, too, with Terion Arnold off the field. This this secondary might really stink this year. Uh,
50:43>> and I do like I didn't bring it up like, but I do like cuz we're going to talk about Baker, too. Uh, I mean, I do am
50:49interested in Godwin, too. It's just like he falls into a pocket of guys where like it depends on team. Like, am
50:55I just do I need a glue guy? Like if I need a glue guy, I'll pick Godwin. But then there are a lot of high upside guys
51:00in his range too where like if I feel like already good about my wide receiver room, I'm just like taking more of like
51:06the ceiling guys in that area too. So it's it's more team context sensitive.
51:10Um but I don't because I don't think we're going to see Godwin fully just come back because a lot of people have
51:14used like the Liam Cohen splits and saying offense and but I don't think we're going to see him just like come
51:18back to that like specific role at this age with the the more target competition that they have.
51:23>> Yeah. And there's just a chance that and then Chris Godwin has always been one of my guys, but there's a chance that he's
51:28just like lost a couple steps too, torn ACL, and then having just a, you know, horrific knee injury. Uh, Godwin is
51:33someone that I I've struggled with as well. You know, it depends on the platform, but like I was clicking Quinton Johnston over him for quite some
51:39time. Uh, Quinton Johnson now has leaped Godwin in ADP by about a full round and a half on most >> in PPR. You can still get Josh DS after
51:47him. like >> yeah and that's exactly where I was going with it too is like Josh DS and maybe even like Michael Pitman these
51:52guys who I know are going to be target earners and like you know have 75 80 catch potential I think you could squint
51:58and probably see a little more upside with those guys as well whereas like I I think Mika Ibuka clearly leads this team
52:03in targets this season Rich uh that's where I was going with is Baker Mayfield you you're also buying a Baker bounceback over the last two seasons
52:10Baker is QB6 in fantasy points per game just nudging out Patrick Mahomes and Brock Perie by like 110 tenth of a point per game. Uh
52:18we've mentioned a couple times here on the show, he was severely banged up last season. And Rich, when we're thinking about late round quarterbacks, you know,
52:25Baker's going like QB18, QB19 AP. I want early, quick, fast starts. Dude, their schedule to start the season, they get a
52:32shootout with the Bengals and then they get the Browns with no Miles Garrett in week two. It's beautiful.
52:37>> Yeah. And you know, for one QB is more of like a a a break glass if like you miss out. Like you probably won't get
52:42this deep. again like I think there are guys down here like that won't be drafted at one quarterback leagues like if you just somehow miss a run or you
52:49just want to keep draft you just keep or keep want to drafting other position players because you get on the clock and
52:54you're like you know what I can kind of punt quarterback to start the year because there's so much depth in one QB
52:58maybe I just want to keep drafting position players I think have higher upside and I'll just like you know play uh the field at quarterback. I think
53:05he's one of these guys that fits that. I just laid out kind of the case of just kind of you know the coord the
53:10coordinator upgrade him being healthier.
53:12I mean, people he was like in MVP competi conversations like through eight weeks last year and he was coming off 230 touchdown seasons the two prior
53:19years. He also is a sneaky runner like you're getting a little bit of rushing equity from him too. He's had over 300
53:25rushing yards backto-back years as well.
53:27But yeah, he's just kind of one of those guys I look at. And then you get the the fantasy playoffs, you obviously have the
53:32one at Baltimore to open the playoffs, but if you get down there, you have Saints and Falcons as well. Uh two games
53:38that there's no weather concerns. Could be potentially, you know, higher upside games, too. So improved offensive line, shootouts, all those things, just all in
53:46favor of him.
53:47>> It's all in favor of him. I agree. You know, you take Hall of Famer Mike Evans off the field, that's like the only
53:52negative that I can really paint with Baker. But that's something I've noticed with him, too, man. With the scrambling upside is legitimate. Over the last two
53:58seasons, he's QB7 and scramble yards. I mean, that's like I mean, it's not nothing. It's a couple points per game here and there where he's really
54:05boosting the floor and, you know, even in shootout games like you've mentioned, maybe even boosting his ceiling quite a bit there. Uh yeah, I think I I might be
54:12higher on Baker than you. You say he's like a break glass in case of emergency.
54:15Maybe this is just because, you know, late round quarterback and quarterback in general is pretty deep this year.
54:20Yeah, >> I'm I'm I think he's like a top 15 quarterback like straight up in terms of ranking.
54:25>> Yeah, I I mean that's right where I have him too. Um you know, obviously it it's basically like those guys and those one
54:31I've like him and G golf doesn't have the as the rushing upside of Baker or that sprinkling of rushing.
54:37>> Golf could throw 40 touchdowns this year, man. But golf like golf schedule is like stupid and like they play >> the easiest strength of schedule in the
54:44NFL.
54:45>> They play nothing but indoor games.
54:46We're going to talk about that in a bit.
54:47But like so I always have a problem like just if I if I just push quarterback to the limits of one QB, usually golf is
54:54that firewall guy that I'll start with.
54:56But like if golf's gone because you sometimes will have uh Baker Goff go with like the Aman Rod drafter or something like they'll just take him. Uh
55:06then I'll I'll look at like Baker's immediately the next guy that I look at.
55:10>> Yeah, I'm I'm with you. This is a really really great year for for late round quarterbacks. Baker is a part of that
55:16for sure. And I I'm I share your enthusiasm with Jared Goff. We talked Nico Collins just a moment ago and just
55:21kind of Rich and I kind of sharing the same thoughts on this Texans offense being one that could really surprise people this season and and kind of
55:28improve year-over-year. Just offensive line. CJ Strad wasn't as bad as people are making him out. People are talking about CJ Stout like he's a bottom five
55:35quarterback in the NFL. And while he has not been able to replicate his rookie season efficiency, Rich, there's a lot to like with Stout. Now, we're not
55:42sitting here saying you should be drafting CJ Stout in your one quarterback league. I think that's way that's definitely a bridge too far for
55:48me. But in superflex leagues, I think he makes a ton of sense. Is like a very, very cheap QB2. Over the last three
55:54seasons, he's had a decent touchdown rate right around 4%. The you know, the interceptions and turnovers have never truly been that bad. Obviously,
56:01everybody remembers the last playoff game and yeah, I mean that was certainly not the case, the four pick game against the the Patriots, but in the regular
56:08season when fantasy football matters, he's always been a pretty efficient passer. We just need some bigger spiked weeks. Rich, are we going to get him?
56:15You know, he's always he's been a he's been a decent floor play at quarterback every single year. We just need those
56:19spiked efficiency weeks to pop.
56:21>> Yeah. Yeah. and we had we had him his rookie year and I I already kind of tried to make the bull case of why a
56:26blind bet like in multiple categories like they're a team to bet on having doubledigit touchdown improvement uh this season and like you said if they
56:34just didn't incorporate some of these easy buttons with the offensive line being improved, you know, playing their young wide receivers, having a healthier
56:40wide receiver core. I mean, like I said, the the numbers were there for Straoud last year. Like I said, he was a top 10
56:45quarterback, you know, in yards or pass attempt and efficiency, you know, with motion in play action. And if that's just a larger part of the offense, which
56:52it should be, adding David Montgomery, this offensive line is defense, like, please do it. Uh, the other thing, too, is he was pacing for a career-high
57:00scramble rate until he got that concussion. Maybe we don't get it back after that. Uh, it was a it was a pretty
57:05gnarly concussion and like he just didn't run after that. I'm sure they told him not to run to after that.
57:10>> Um, and then you talk about uh their schedules in these two QB leagues. Like if you're looking for like this is
57:16another guy, they're opening seven weeks. He has a week eight buy. They potentially play they play Bills Bengals the open which could be forced to score
57:23point games. Uh they play the Colts and then the Dallas could also be forced to score points games. Then Tennessee, Jacksonville Giants before the buy. Like
57:31this is as good as a QB2 layout and a good as a team environment. Like I think that people are underrating for a team
57:37environment that you have down at this bucket. Like to me like I don't see how he can't be like what what Seattle got
57:45out of Sam Darnold or what Minnesota got out of Sam Darnold. better than what they got out of like what Sam Darnold's
57:50done the past two years in those environments. Um it just really falls on Nick Kayley and if Nick Kay is gonna put
57:56these easy buttons in the offense or not. So uh I'm watching you Nick Kaylee this year.
58:01>> Yeah, we're we're giving you one more chance here. We're giving you one more chance. I want to I want to give a
58:06little bit of credit to CJ Stout. While like he did struggle at times last year for sure behind that offensive line, I
58:12mean he he really cut his sack rate year-over-year Rich and this is something that like is absolutely a quarterback skill. sack rate was cut.
58:18Like I mentioned earlier, his EPA per dropback, he was like right behind Sam Darnold, I believe, QB1 or QB12 in EPA
58:24per drop back. So, we've seen like even just last year, you know, like maybe that wasn't his best season ever, but
58:29the the efficiency wasn't, you know, wasn't too too bad. Uh I'm I'm just fully with Rich that I think Houston is
58:34a very very sneaky team this year. I mainly want to draft that through the lens of obviously Nico Collins and David
58:40Montgomery, but I'm I'm definitely going to leave the light on for [snorts] Stout in Superflex leagues. always one to kind of push my QB2 in superflex leagues. I I
58:48love doing that every year just seeing how far I can push it. Uh Stout is is certainly one of those players this
58:53year. He's he's going outside of the top 20 quarterbacks in that format 2B uh two QB leagues. Rich, we haven't talked any
59:00tight ends on this show, but you were teasing just a minute ago that you're, you know, Jared Goff is one of the late
59:05round quarterbacks that you're kind of eyeing up if you just completely punt the position. You you load up on nine, 10, 11 receivers and running backs. Uh,
59:12in the first couple rounds you get Jared Goff. Sam Leaporta though is a player that's that's basically been the same price for the last three years. He's
59:20just kind of right there at the tight end five and ADP. You know, he kind of he's not forgotten about, but he's just
59:24like like set and forget tied in five.
59:27Is there more upside here that meets the eye?
59:30>> Yeah, with Leaporter. I was just waiting to see if he was going to have a clean bill of health to open and it looks like
59:36he's going to be here. Like that was what I was waiting for. I think this is the first off seasonason he's had, Rich,
59:41where he's been fully healthy in the last two years, right? He was coming back from the ankle injury two years ago
59:45and then it was back last year.
59:46>> Yeah, they had the herniated disc uh last year and uh listen, man, I had two herniated discs uh and and
59:53>> bro, those are those are no joke.
59:55>> I didn't play football. I didn't play football, so I like I like the stuff these dudes go through, man. But
60:01>> dude, it hurts. It hurts to laugh and breathe with those. Like [laughter] >> it's brutal. I couldn't imagine trying to suit up and play a game. The worst
60:09part is like to do the the herniated disc like the the MRIs you have to do these vertical MRIs. So like you have to
60:15like you can't move while standing and it's just like it's the worst. Uh it's like you know uh cuz MRIs in general
60:22like if you're like claustrophobic or anything like they suck but like you you really can't move because like there's nowhere to go.
60:26>> That would be me. Yeah.
60:27>> But the vertical MRIs are even worse because you you you can't you can't like stand or shift your weight or do
60:33anything could mess up the imagery. So if he had to do those I feel I feel bad for him. But Tim G having the clean bill
60:39health is huge. Um, and we talked about golf, right? Like you know, you look at they they play only four outdoor games
60:46during their fantasy season and one of those is, you know, the the fantasy championship. But in their outdoor games, week two at Buffalo, no
60:52temperature concerns really could be high scoring. Panthers week four, that's not exciting, but no weather concerns.
60:57And Miami in week nine, again, no weather concerns. So like cuz golf's one of these guys, the the home road stuff
61:02gets blown out of proportion at golf.
61:04It's really just like the the precipitation stuff with golf is where he struggles because he's got the tiny hands, so he got the small hand
61:10syndrome. You remember at his proday when Pep Hamilton was dumping the water bottle on Goff's hands? [laughter] >> Hey, dude. He knew what he was doing
61:20though. I mean, give him a little credit. [laughter] >> Yeah. Yeah. But G golf was always on the road still like torch defense as he
61:26should. Uh but before Leaporta's injury, tight end nine in target share, tight end six in yards per out run. He was a
61:32tight end nine in receptions, tight end five in yards. Uh Win Leaport has been on the field over his rookie contract.
61:38He is second in the lines in targets behind Aman Ross St. Brown and he leads the team in end zone targets on plays
61:43he's been on the field. He already has a tight end one overall season on his resume. So we know there is upside here.
61:49And then you know I don't want to completely say like Drew Ping's a plus for him because Drew Petting had Trey
61:53McBride but Drew Petting also involved Zack Z heavily in the passing game and Ping's offense has targeted tight ends 34% of the time during his time with the
62:01Cardinals. So, this is a guy to and when him and J Mo were on the field together the past two years, he's completely
62:08dominated Jameson Williams in terms of target equity. So, this is a guy I think that has touchdown like this. He could
62:15be he could potentially lead the tight ends and touchdowns this year and you're getting him, you know, as the tight end
62:21six, tight end through tight end eight in some of these leagues. So, uh, yeah, Leaporta now with a clean bill of health
62:27is definitely on my radar as a guy that I think will climb over the summer, but is undervalued right now.
62:33>> Yeah, Leaporta in his first two seasons, 17 touchdowns and 33 games in the regular season. He ran a little cold on
62:38touchdowns last year. Uh, fantasy points data, we had him slightly below his expectation in terms of expected touchdowns. And yeah, you're right. It
62:47is really just the the health going into this season. for Leaporta, the Lions, man. Dude, I mean, they're implied for the most points per game by the Vegas
62:54look ahead lines. They have the easiest strength of schedule by the look ahead lines. 10 and a half team win total. Uh,
63:00you know, it feels like two years ago was a long time ago. Lions kind of, you know, missed their chance in that loss
63:04to the Commanders. This is a team that I think is right at the top of the NFC.
63:09And Jared Goff could certainly support two to three, you know, weekly assets in fantasy football. I'm on Rod's just like set it and forget it. You can bank on
63:17100 receptions for him every year, but there is going to be, you know, multiple weeks where Aman Rod, J Mo, and Sam
63:22Leaporta. Two of those three players go off for fantasy football. I am 100% with you. Uh, Leaporta is kind of tricky,
63:30Rich, because he is like, like I, you know, like I said, the tight end market really hasn't changed at all. It's kind
63:35of like a repeat of last year. It's the same exact tight end market in terms of ADP pricing within those buckets.
63:41Leaporta is a nice price though because he he goes right at the end of that receiver range we've been talking about
63:46like right at the end of that pocket and that's when I can kind of switch gears and make the decision. Okay, do I want
63:51to attack a onesie position here and Leaporta right there in that like kind of middle >> sixth round seventh round? Uh I I like
63:58that quite a bit. Are you taking him over Tyler Warren real quick? I wanted to ask you.
64:01>> No, no, but the problem is War where Warren goes is against that hotbed of all those dudes that uh that you know
64:07between this show and last show that we talked about. It's it's hard for me to I really love Warren, but it's hard for me
64:14to to take him against the I just really like the receivers and the Colts who I think you have something we're going to
64:20talk about like the I'm a little scared of the Colts in in general this year.
64:25>> Yeah. I I wanted to real quick before we get out of here. I think the Colts are a clear regression candidate
64:29year-over-year. You know, they've got, you know, it's just a seven and a half win team total. Uh, obviously, they would have gotten well over eight wins
64:36last year if if Daniel Jones had stayed healthy. But I'm I'm looking at this maybe the same way that you are. I think
64:41there's some there's some downside risk with this Colts team that maybe not it's certainly not priced into Jonathan Taylor going at 67 overall right behind
64:49Christian McCaffrey right around JSN and I'm on RAW. That's not priced in at all.
64:52But I think there's downside risk with this team like Daniel Jones coming back from popped Achilles and they ran super super hot last year. Like what are you
65:00seeing with the Colts cuz they've been one of the trickier teams to kind of figure out I think just in terms of
65:04projection.
65:05>> Yeah, they're they're a team that's consistently shown up uh in my regression series for the you know from a negative stance of regression to the
65:12mean. Uh they they scored at the the highest rate of their possessions in the NFL last year. Uh 50 51 and a half% of
65:19their possessions scored. Uh since 2010, there's been 24 other teams to score in at least half their possessions. Uh only one of those teams were able to repeat
65:26that the next season, and that was the peak Mahomes Tyreek Kelsey run. Uh they did it back toback years, and only um
65:33one they were the only team of those 24 to scored a higher rate per drive the following season.
65:38>> Those teams on average lose uh 12 touchdowns per season. Uh 2024 had four of those teams and all four teams lost
65:46touchdown. Now, the Bills, this is again where like all regression is not a boogeyman. Bills only lost three touchdowns, but Lions, Commanders, and
65:52Buccaneers all lost double digit touchdowns last year versus their 2024 totals. Then if you go down a step ladder in terms of touchdowns scored
66:00over expectations, they scored uh eight touchdowns over expectations. Uh teams in that bucket uh over since 2010, uh 45 of the 57 teams that kind of hit that
66:10threshold came back and scored fewer touchdowns the following season. Average loss of 13 touchdowns per team. Uh there were uh seven teams that fit that mold
66:18last year and five of them of the seven lost double digit touchdowns. And then you look at last year uh goalto
66:24opportunities. The Colts scored a 94% they scored a touchdown on 30 of 32 go to goal drives. It was the third best
66:32touchdown rate in those chances for any team in the 2000s. League grade is 74%.
66:36Um and yeah, they were the seventh team to have a 90% touchdown error uh in the 2000s. they have the the third highest.
66:44Uh and then every one of those teams came back. Not one of those teams even hit 30 chances, goal to go chances.
66:50Jonathan Taylor scored 43 fantasy points from the one yard line last year. He hadn't scored uh more than 24 from the
66:56one yard line in his career. It's the highest in the NFL last year.
66:59>> And then when you kind of look at what happened to the Colts last year, obviously the opening eight games, they're seven and one. They're setting
67:04all these records. Um they had a pretty light schedule, but then we saw, you know, before even Daniel Jones got hurt,
67:12they were coming back to reality a little bit. Uh you know, the Daniel Jones of the the turnoverprone Daniel Jones, like he had fallen in his last
67:21month before his injury 17th in completion rate. He had seven fumbles.
67:25He had 24th in interception rate. He was 17th in touchdown rate. we had already seen like I would have loved to just
67:30seen what would have happened over the course of the season if uh it would have been like a complete wonky day and
67:35nightight split or not but it it is interesting you look at the Colts too like you have him coming off his
67:39Achilles and remember this is a plantle Achilles for Daniel Jones uh it's so like is he going to be able to push the
67:45ball downfield as much that could help guys like Tyler Will and Josh DS um but Michael Pitman's gone Smith's no longer
67:52on the roster like there's a lot of moving parts here that isn't exciting about the Colts um obviously it's not like all doom and gloom. They have some
67:59good players, but it's been I think at cost like Jonathan Taylor is like the toughest guy because he's been so dependent on game script for fantasy
68:09points in his career. I mean, he's number one since he entered the NFL in PPR leagues points per game in wins and
68:15he goes to RB15 in losses. Last year in Colts wins, Jonathan Taylor was averaging 32 PPR points per game.
68:22>> Like just stupid like and and that speaks to the stat that you just had on the goal to go opportunities.
68:28they ran right there.
68:29>> I think JT is a clear regression candidate. It's a player that I was all in last year. He was somebody that I
68:35freaking in the second round. He is somebody that I've really struggled to click in that middle of the second round. I I just straight up prefer
68:42Christian McCaffrey. I think I prefer Aman Ross St. Brown over him as well. Uh he's he's re really really tricky and
68:48it's like man this offense like and Shane Stken we trust. I think Stken is one of the best play callers in the NFL
68:53right now. He's just like finger on the pulse. fully understands how to, you know, kind of beat some of this current
68:58NFL meta and and use motion and and create leverage with his receivers. But it's like, bro, are we really trusting it with like a maybe busted Alec Pierce
69:06who's who's not practiced this entire summer and Josh DS who's never played in two, Dude, Josh Downs has played 6% of
69:12his career snaps out of 12 personnel.
69:13Like he does he's just not played in those situations. Like I think Josh Downs certainly could he could be a really good flanker in this offense as
69:20the motion man in this offense, but bro, like it's it's uh it is a little scary.
69:24Uh it's it's a little scary with this receiver group and I think that's what's pulled me back into Tyler Warren so so
69:29much this year is like yeah okay he goes in that pocket where a lot of the receivers that you know Rich and I love
69:34are going but man I mean he he was freaking incredible last year and he's going to probably easily lead this team
69:39in targets.
69:41>> Yeah. And you even if you remove like what happened at the end of last year after Daniel Jones was injured in the in
69:46the four losses that Jonathan Taylor played with Daniel Jones. He was the RB21, the RB29, the RB28, and the RB18.
69:54It just kind of goes right back into those splits. And you look at the Colts right now, they're only favored in six
69:59games in uh on their schedule. Uh that's 21st in the NFL. They have a brutal gauntlet to open year there. Baltimore,
70:05Kansas City, Houston. They have an international game against Washington, but then they're not taking the buy and they're going short trip to at
70:13Pittsburgh after the international game.
70:15>> That's rough. Um that's it's just a pretty rough start for them, especially, you know, if Daniel Jones like has just,
70:21you know, is more so like in between the player we've seen for his career and not just that off that blistering
70:27quarterback that we saw at the start of last year.
70:29>> Yeah. I remember that first opening game, I was like, "Wow, this is a pretty freaking pretty freaking big turnaround for Daniel Jones. They blitz Miami."
70:37Then he came back and what he threw for like 350 or 320 yards against the the Broncos and it was legit. Yeah, there
70:43dude there's a there's a chance there's some regression candidate for sure this Colts offense and I Rich's analysis just hit the nail on the head. Rich, this has
70:50been fantastic, man. I could go for another couple hours with you as as always. It's always fun chopping up and talking ball with you. This has been a
70:57great hour plus of fantasy football knowledge drop with Rich Rebar talking about some of his mustdraft players.
71:03Rich has been teasing it throughout the show. He has put out a number of articles about regression candidates from a team level. Rich's tears work is
71:11always must readad and like I was mentioning at the top of the show, the worksheet in season truly is fantasy gold. Uh if you're, you know, in a
71:17number of seasonl long fantasy leagues, use that article to kind of break ties, use Rich's re research to to, you know,
71:24in your in your favor because Rich is truly a madman. He's he's tr one of the the mavens of fantasy football research.
71:31Uh, I I can't can't say enough good things about Rich and his work that he puts in at for fantasy and everything he
71:38does. Uh, follow him on Twitter. I mentioned earlier in the show, follow him on Twitter, Lord Reeves. You can see all of his work at Sharp Football
71:45Analysis. And for Fantasy Points, please subscribe to the channel if you have not already. We just crossed the 26,000 subscriber threshold and we're going got
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