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The Best Week 3 Fantasy Football Trades to Make RIGHT NOW: Buy or Sell?

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 23 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 23, 2026
Published
Wed, September 23, 2026
31
Player insights
30
Players mentioned
Topics
Tucker KraftAlec PierceBrock PurdyBucky IrvingCeeDee LambChase BrownChris GodwinChristian WatsonCourtland SuttonDak PrescottDavid MontgomeryDeebo SamuelDrake LondonGarrett Wilson
Player analysis

Player insights

31

Alec Pierce

NegativeValue36:00

Listed as a potential trade target in exchange for Debo Samuel; positioned as a lower-tier option compared to Courtland Sutton and other receivers in the trade discussion.

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Brock Purdy

PositiveProjection32:57

49ers QB has posted highest QBR in NFL history (or since QBR became a stat); operates top-three offense in yards per play, points per drive, and EPA per play. The source ranks him in the 7–8 range among NFL quarterbacks and emphasizes preference for wide receivers attached to elite QB play like Purdy's, representing a significant upgrade from earlier season rankings.

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Bucky Irving

PositiveValue44:50

Buy-low candidate; ranks 9th in snap share and 6th in target share through two weeks. As a rookie, had one of the best fantasy points per snap seasons ever and was a hyper-efficient player in college; was drafted as RB19 before David Montgomery, DeAndre Swift, and Quinnshot Judkins. Kenneth Gainwell has been basically not involved in the offense, making Irving the lone back.

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CeeDee Lamb

PositiveRole11:15

Lamb got off to a hot start early in the season and is positioned as a potential WR1 candidate. Utilization-for-utilization, Lamb is in the more valuable role for fantasy compared to other Cowboys receivers through two weeks. Benefits from Cowboys' elite passing offense (first in points per drive) and poor run game that forces passing volume; the Cowboys rank dead last in adjusted yards before contact per run attempt (less than one yard), forcing favorable passing game scripts that amplify Lamb's utilization advantage.

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Chase Brown

PositiveRole8:27

Dominant role elevation with Samaj Perine sidelined; not leaving the field basically ever. RB5 rest-of-season projection with elite situation: Bengals now have a good defense and complete team, creating game scripts that will rely on the run game more than ever. In the second half of last season (final 9 weeks), he was RB3 in fantasy points per game. Can easily outscore Derek Henry moving forward due to involvement in both pass game and run game.

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Chris Godwin

NegativeValue36:36

Listed as a potential trade target for Debo Samuel; the source expresses skepticism about trading wide receivers for other wide receivers, suggesting Godwin is not a compelling return for Debo.

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Christian Watson

PositiveBreakout19:19

Watson has been awesome through two weeks and ranks as wide receiver nine by fantasy points per route run since the start of last season. The source notes the Packers have shifted from bottom-three pass rate over expectation to top-12, creating an incredible setup. Watson is winning reps at a high level on inbreakers, slants, and crossers with a developed release package and fast wins on tape. Film evaluation shows significant development in his game that should result in substantially better production. However, the quick-hitting scheme due to poor offensive line may pressure his efficiency; Jordan Love's time to throw has dropped from 2.6 to 2.31 seconds (largest decrease of any QB), and Watson's targets per route run and yards per route run decline when Love gets the ball out under 2.5 seconds.

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Courtland Sutton

PositiveValue36:36

Emerges as a more equitable trade target for Debo Samuel compared to lower-tier options like Blake Quorum and Kyle Manangi; the source indicates that a package of Sutton and Manangi for Debo represents fair value, suggesting Sutton is closer to Debo's tier than earlier trade suggestions.

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Dak Prescott

PositiveProjection11:15

Prescott is performing well across two very different game scripts and is projected to be near the top in dropback volume. Cowboys' inability to run the football (dead last in adjusted yards before contact per run attempt, less than one yard) and poor defense force passing situations. Elite passing offense efficiency (first in points per drive) supports high volume projection.

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David Montgomery

NegativeUsage27:27

Montgomery is one of the best man-gap runners in the league but faces volatility concerns due to splitting backfield time with Woody Marks and Houston's poor play-calling. He takes approximately 80% of the backfield zone carries, but the source flagged this as part of Houston's scheme decisions. The source cautioned against overreacting to early-season usage patterns. Montgomery's profile is comparable to 2024 Joe Mixon—high-touch games with strong defense and turnovers yield 20+ touches and 21+ fantasy points, but weeks without Nico Collins or negative game script produce rougher outputs.

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Deebo Samuel

PositiveValue32:14

Buy-low candidate in 49ers offense that ranks top-three in yards per play, points per drive, and EPA per play. Benefits from Brock Purdy's elite QB play (highest QBR in NFL history) and condensed, high-powered offense. Injury context (Jauan Jennings on IR, Demarcus Robinson high ankle sprain) creates target opportunity. In the more condensed offense, Samuel operates with elevated screen and dump-off volume, providing a higher floor than perceived; the offense carries significant touchdown equity.

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Drake London

PositiveValue15:19

London has been a non-factor through two weeks due to the Cooper Rush situation but represents a buy-low opportunity if available at round five prices (down from round two ADP). With Michael Penix Jr., London has historically averaged 20.6 fantasy points per game across eight to ten games, with a 40% first-read target share and 33% overall target share. Penix has already adjusted London's role from 80% outside snaps in week one to 57% slot rate in week two, positioning him in his optimal power slot role.

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Garrett Wilson

PositiveValue42:54

Source would trade Garrett Wilson straight up for Lad McConkey, indicating strong conviction in McConkey's buy-low value relative to Wilson's current market price.

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George Pickens

NegativeRole11:15

Pickens has adequate target volume but hasn't converted all targets to receptions. Slot rate declined from 15% to 9% and average depth of route remained flat through two weeks, contrary to offseason expectations for increased slot work and shallower routes. Real-life NFL impact is massive but fantasy production has not yet matched opportunity. Benefits from Cowboys' poor defense and high dropback volume (Dak Prescott near top in dropbacks), and the Cowboys rank dead last in adjusted yards before contact per run attempt (less than one yard), forcing pass-heavy game scripts that create an incredible setup for Pickens' skill set. However, role concerns regarding route depth and positioning remain.

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Jadarian Price

PositiveValue17:23

Buy-low candidate despite current injury; Seattle is running the ball heavily (40 carries in recent game) and Price was in the driver's seat before injury, with George Holani taking a back seat. Price ranks top five in both missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt; coach stated heading into week two they would put more on his plate. Had 14 touches before injury while backup Emanuel Wilson got 21 carries in a game script that would have been ideal for 20+ carries; would have had strong fantasy output if he stayed healthy.

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Jalen Coker

NegativeBust3:15

Historical example of player decline in a short sample size; kind of disappeared in a month-long stretch, illustrating how even drafted players can lose opportunity and production within a season.

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Jameson Williams

NegativeValue42:39

Williams is proposed as part of a trade package to acquire Lad McConkey; source would pair him with Devon Vy and Romo Dunay.

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Jordan Addison

NegativeValue36:00

Listed as a potential trade target for Debo Samuel; the source notes that Addison's current value is approximately equivalent to Darren Waller (Johnston), indicating a mid-tier option in the Debo trade discussion.

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Jordan Love

NegativeProjection21:39

Love has dropped his average time to throw from over 2.6 seconds to 2.31 seconds year-over-year (2025 to 2026), the largest decrease of any quarterback. This is described as 'unlike any version of Jordan Love we've ever seen,' driven by a poor offensive line forcing quick-release concepts. The Packers' passing offense ranks fringe top-five in EPA per drop-back, though the source clarifies this is an offense-level stat, not a player stat. Love's compressed time to throw disadvantages receivers like Watson, Craft, and Golden who typically require 2.5+ seconds to generate their best target and yardage rates, but benefits quick-release specialists like Wixs and Doubs.

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Josh Jacobs

PositiveProjection19:19

Jacobs is expected to return in week seven from injury. The source speculates he could return to 20 touches per game once healthy. The Packers' running game has been poor through two weeks, but Jacobs could be 'free' once he returns, implying potential volume upside if the offense continues to struggle and leans on the run game. Benefits from Packers' shift to top-12 pass rate over expectation (up from bottom three over the previous two seasons) and an awful defense.

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Kalif Raymond

NegativeBust36:36

Despite leading the Chicago Bears in passing-game snaps in weeks 1-2 (including more snaps than Luther Burden in week two), ranks dead last in separation win rate at 0.0%, indicating severe inability to create separation from defenders; the source expresses strong skepticism that he will remain a fantasy-relevant asset.

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Ladd McConkey

PositiveValue40:55

Buy-low candidate despite cracked rib; went nuclear in week one before injury. Chargers offense is completely dysfunctional without him, posting 0.22 EPA per play with him on field versus minus-0.6 with him off field in both weeks one and two; appears to be in a Tyreek Hill-caliber role for fantasy. Teams starting 0-2 may not have the luxury to remain patient, but contenders can acquire him at discount.

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Matthew Golden

PositiveBreakout21:12

Golden looks incredible on tape and may end up being the biggest beneficiary of the Packers' quick-hit scheme. He's winning reps at a really high level on fast-developing plays like slants, crossers, and inbreakers—the exact route concepts the Packers are leaning into due to Jordan Love's shortened time to throw (2.31 seconds average, down from 2.6). The source was impressed with Golden's NFL tape for the first time, citing discipline in route running as the key distinction; he's running routes at correct depth with smooth, efficient brakes and no false steps. His developed release package and ability to win on quick-hitting concepts position him as a potential breakout in this condensed receiver rotation. This route-running development should result in significantly better production.

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Mike Evans

PositiveValue12:30

Buy-low candidate despite banged-up status; maintains elite target share (top-three in air yards share) attached to Brock Purdy, who has posted highest QBR in NFL history and operates a top-three offense in yards per play, points per drive, and EPA per play. Recent game vs. Miami saw only 22 pass attempts due to early exit (hip), but offense is condensed and high-powered. Elite receiving talent remains intact despite Demarcus Robinson's high ankle sprain and Jauan Jennings on IR. The source maintains confidence in Evans' elite status in the more condensed 49ers offense.

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Puka Nacua

PositiveValue5:00

Injury discount opportunity on a top-5 WR candidate; WR1 for McVay/Stafford who will go nuclear in that role. In week 1 with Stafford throwing only 155 passing yards and zero touchdowns, Nacua posted 23.3 XFP on 20 routes, demonstrating elite efficiency despite poor QB performance. Source values him alongside Z Flowers over highly regarded peers like Jamar Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

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Rashod Bateman

PositiveRole6:00

Filled Zay Flowers' role while Flowers was injured; went off in week 2 as the featured receiver. Playing in the Zay Flowers role with Baltimore running 13 personnel at a top-3 rate, which is ideal for a WR1. Source suggests he may be a secondary acquisition target if Flowers remains unavailable.

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Romeo Doubs

NegativeRole20:37

Doubs is part of the Packers' condensed receiver rotation and is one of the guys heavily targeted when Jordan Love gets the ball out quickly (under 2.5 seconds). This quick-release role contrasts with the deeper-developing route concepts that benefit Watson, Craft, and Golden, positioning Doubs as a beneficiary of the Packers' current offensive line constraints.

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Tucker Kraft

PositiveBreakout19:19

Craft was tight end three by fantasy points per route run since the start of last season. The source expected a slow ramp-up after his injury, but Craft has just hit a career-high in route share, indicating the Packers no longer have the luxury of easing him back in following Jaden Reed's departure. This condensed receiver room and increased role make Craft a buy candidate in the source's view, especially given his elite per-route efficiency metrics. The Packers have shifted from bottom-three pass rate over expectation to top-12, creating an incredible setup for Craft.

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PositiveValue19:19

Kraft is the actual buy-low candidate among Packers receivers and tight ends. He was tight end three by fantasy points per route run since the start of last season. Expected to have a slow ramp-up after injury, but Kraft has just hit a career-high in route share, indicating the Packers no longer have the luxury of easing him back in following Jaden Reed's departure. This condensed receiver room and increased role make Kraft a buy candidate, especially given his elite per-route efficiency metrics. Benefits from Packers' shift to top-12 pass rate over expectation (up from bottom three over the previous two seasons) and an awful defense.

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Woody Marks

NegativeRole29:00

Marks is playing on approximately 80% of short down and distance snaps in Houston's offense, but the source described him as a player who 'stinks' and is 'like a glorified scatback.' This usage pattern reflects poor play-calling by Houston's coaching staff rather than Marks' actual value, with the source expressing strong skepticism about his fantasy relevance.

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Zay Flowers

NegativeValue5:00

Top-5 WR candidate with injury discount; scored 26 fantasy points on just 11 routes in week 1 before injury. Source wants to be aggressive acquiring him despite the injury concern, positioning him as a buy-low target. Playing 13 personnel at a top-3 rate for Baltimore, the ideal setup for a superstar WR1, similar to how Devonte Adams and Puka Nacua were effective in that role last year.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

869
0:00Look at my traps right now.
0:02Looks like my my back is webbed, you know, like I could fly.
0:06>> Did you hit traps today, Scott?
0:08>> Nope. I don't need to. I'm just naturally jacked.
0:12>> Yeah.
0:14>> And so I I I've decided I I I I don't like football anymore. Uh it's too painful. I don't want to do this show
0:22anymore. So it's time for a rebrand.
0:25>> You're hairy.
0:26>> Oh, yeah.
0:28>> Not hairier than me.
0:29I think I am.
0:31>> No.
0:32>> Oh, my back's pretty pretty clean. My My front is a sweater vest, though. Uh, this is now a podcast about dog
0:40breeding. This is Dog Breeding Daily with Brett and Scott. Uh, a little more.
0:46It It can't hurt you. Dog Dog breeds can't hurt you. So, >> you you seem like the kind of guy that
0:51has some like nasty moles on your back.
0:53>> Oh, I do. I have one and it has no way >> the longest like five strands of hair coming down.
1:01>> I don't know how I called that, but you just seem like that kind of guy.
1:04>> Yeah.
1:05Today, um I wanted to start off today's show talking about the Cavalier King Charles Spaniel. Um uh greyhoundlike dogs appear in ancient
1:16Egyptian art.
1:19>> Another interesting factoid about uh poodles while leaving hair around the vital organs for warmth and protection.
1:28>> That's great. Let's get back to football now. [music] >> All right, let's let's uh let's cut with
1:41the bull. Let's get into the purpose of the show. We're going to tell you trades you should be making. Uh whether it's
1:47buying low on guys, selling high on guys, we're gonna have a lot of conversations. We want to get in the weeds a little bit too and and maybe
1:53even I like to hypothesize some trade ideas, guys you can target as well. I know Scott doesn't always love doing that, but I'm going to force his hand a
2:00little bit today. Let's start with the first bucket here.
2:03>> Before we get into that, I want to say something because >> I have I have people melting down in my
2:10DMs and my mentions. They're they're hysterical. They're panicking. They're crying. Bro, this is this is two games.
2:21Like, I wanna I want to slap you like it's the scene from The Godfather. You can act like a man, not a hysterical
2:27child. It's it's two out of 17 games.
2:32It's it's 11% of our sample size. This is nothing. Do you know how many elite players suck two games in a row or awful
2:41players were awesome across a two game sample size? And like the way the the NFL always works is like they're always
2:49like seasons within a season. So it could be the case where it's like, oh yeah, you remember how in the first
2:55month of the 2026 season, the Carolina Panthers were like shockingly awesome and balling out and Bryce Young was a top three fantasy
3:05quarterback. Oh, and then the the next month of the season where uh they were awful, but T McMillan was like going
3:12off. He was putting up a ton of points.
3:14he was just getting spam targets and Jaylen Coker kind of disappeared. Oh, and then the third month where it was, you know, they they really sucked but
3:22Schuber was getting 20 plus and so it's like that happens all the time where it's like, oh, they have an elite
3:28defense for four weeks and then or they have the league's worst defense and then they figure things out and it's a great
3:36defense and dude things change so rapidly, so dramatically. A twoame sample size is nothing. So do not panic, do not overreact. You want to take
3:47advantage of the people who are panicking, who are overreacting. Uh Adam Harststead has this great famous fantasy football article where it's like
3:58this season doesn't matter as much as um pre-draft ADP until week five or week six. And so yeah, you want to stay
4:09anchored towards that. You don't want to be overreacting to two games, especially when it's just like production and not, you know, volume tied into that or
4:20factoring in matchups and whatnot. So, let's all take a deep breath here.
4:24>> I don't know that you were just being completely upfront with you, straightforward. I'm a straight shooter.
4:29I don't know that you were the person equipped to have that conversation with the audience.
4:32>> Why is that? I mean, you started this very podcast by reading off dog breed Wikipedia pages because you were throwing the season out because your
4:40little, >> you know, crybaby butt hurt about your Giants. So, like I don't I don't think you were the one to give the PSA on
4:47being patient. I'm just saying.
4:49>> Listen, you wanted to do a football podcast. I want to do a show on dog breeds. I got 15 more interesting facts.
4:54So, sound off in the comments. Do you want to hear these facts on on tomorrow's episode or do you want do you
5:00want us to talk Paul?
5:01>> If you're still here, watchers, viewers of the the podcast on YouTube, the Fantasy Points YouTube page, we are going to cut to the chase. We are
5:09actually going to talk about the point of the the show today starting right now, 11 minutes in, 12 minutes in. All
5:16right, here's the first bucket. Check in. These are guys you need to check in on. um they're either banged up or they
5:23are the production hasn't matched the opportunity and so maybe there's some people ready to sell low but maybe not these are high draft picks minus Z
5:33Flowers um we're talking Z Flowers Puka Nua Chase Brown uh Scott all of these guy I mean some of these guys initially were on our buy low
5:44category but we ended up moving them to this check-in bucket just because it's hard it's really hard to acquire a guy
5:49who was drafted top, you know, first pick or first or second pick in your fantasy draft. But why did you like Z
5:55Flowers on this list? Uh, considering the first game he had, he's you think someone's willing to cut bait based on an injury?
6:03>> I mean, I don't know. It's It's worth checking in to see where they're at. Um, but he dude, he scored 26 fantasy points
6:09on just 11 routes in week one. Then he got hurt. Uh, and then last week you saw Rashad Baitman go off as the featured
6:17one. I think he was playing the Z Flowers role. Um, you know, an interesting little stat here is Baltimore uh playing uh 13 personnel at
6:27a top three rate. That's ideal. That's exactly what you want to see for a superstar wide receiver or the team's wide receiver one. That's what allowed
6:35Devonte Adams and Puka Nua to be so effective last year. They were alternating that that role. You saw that with JSN a little bit as well. Um, so
6:44like I don't know, maybe maybe someone's like, "Ah, you know, he's questionable this week and maybe he comes back and he's not 100%." And you know, Rashad
6:53Baitman maybe is someone to work. None of that's true. This is I think a top five fantasy wide receiver moving forward. So he's someone I want to be
7:00aggressive in acquiring. And then Puka Nua, it's kind of the same thing, right?
7:04He's hurt, so maybe you're getting a slight injury discount. You just had Devonte Adams go off, but that was Devonte Adams playing in the Puka Nua
7:13role. In week one, Devonte Adams had just a 54% snap share. He wasn't playing in 13 personnel. That was Puka Nua. Uh,
7:22and yeah, in Listen, when you're the wide receiver, one for Shawn McVey and Matthew Stafford, you're going to go nuclear. And that's what happened.
7:29Dvonte Adams 195 yards in week two. But Puka in week one in a game Matthew Stafford sucked ass, threw 155 passing
7:38yards and zero touchdowns. He had 23.3 XFP on 20 routes. So like I don't know where your league is valuing these guys,
7:46but it's worth a checkin. And so worth a checkin because like like Puka and JSN and then a teardrop and then maybe it's
7:57even Puka JSN Z Flowers over some of these other highly regarded wide receivers like a Jamar Chase Aman Ross Brown. Wouldn't wouldn't blow my mind,
8:08but it's possible they're being valued on par with like a Devonte Adams. If you have one of these hysterical, reactionary types who just, you know,
8:17uh, can't see, you know, beyond their own face and just see 195 yards from Devonte Adams.
8:24>> I like the call on both them. What about Chase Brown?
8:27>> Well, you're the one who wanted to add this to the list, so why don't you make your case?
8:31>> Well, he his role in the offense is insane.
8:34>> Is it?
8:36>> Yes. [laughter] >> How so?
8:38>> I mean, Samaj Pan's just not even playing anymore. Am I wrong?
8:42>> No, you're right.
8:44>> Okay.
8:44>> So, I I didn't have him on the list, but I I wanted to for exactly that reason.
8:48So, Maj Per Ryan is even less involved than I thought he was going to be. And uh not just that, but it's also like,
8:56bro, is is Joe Burrow in his post Tyreek Patrick Mahomes career arc where like they actually have a good defense now?
9:05And so, like >> part of my thesis also. Yes.
9:08>> All right. Go ahead. Take it. I don't want to step on your toes.
9:11>> No, no, it's good. It's good. Go ahead.
9:13I was just gonna say, yeah, they're a complete team now. They're more complete than they've ever been. They're going to have game scripts where they're they're
9:19going to be ahead. They've got a defense that can hold leads presumably. I guess we haven't seen them against a really
9:24good team yet, but a defense that can hold leads and then they're going that's going to rely, you know, cause them to
9:30rely on the run game a little bit more than they ever have. And I think the role Chase Brown has, the fact that he's
9:36not leaving the field basically ever is going to play right into that. And I I do think that this is uh it's an
9:43incredible situation. He was already what a a one-two turn guy through the pre-draft pro or the preseason process.
9:49Now with this role he has, I draft him even higher than that. I think I know the production hasn't matched the
9:54opportunity quite yet in terms of fantasy points. Hasn't been bad, by the way, but it hasn't been great either. So I I'm like I I I think he's probably
10:02what my RB5 rest of season, something like that.
10:06>> Oh, that's that that's kind of high. But I mean like hey, in your defense uh in the second half of last season over the last
10:13final nine weeks of the season, he was Fantasy's RB3 in fantasy points per game above Robinson.
10:21>> Um >> I I could be forgetting somebody. Let's list them out real quick. You have Gibbs, Bejan, CMC, and then that's where I think we get
10:29James Cook, >> bro. John Taylor, Derek Henry.
10:34>> No, see, I think Chase Brown is >> Chase Brown can easily outscore Henry, though.
10:39>> I don't see that. I think Henry is just going to go insane, >> bro. He doesn't do anything in the pass
10:44game.
10:44>> I know, but he never did. And he and he's like he's been like a 16 fantasy points per game.
10:48>> He's like the greatest pure runner in NFL history, arguably since Barry Sanders.
10:53I'll give you since Barry since AP.
10:56Really?
10:56>> Oh, yeah. Fair.
10:57>> Yeah. Anyways, point being is like Chase Brown's involvement in the pass game and the run game. I I just I don't know.
11:04>> Yeah.
11:04>> May maybe five was bullish because I think I I forgot Taylor in the in the initial math, but yeah, he's right
11:11there, though.
11:12>> It was a good shout. Yeah.
11:14>> All right, let's hit these last two.
11:15George Pickkins, Drake London. So, Pickkins for me is is obvious. Like, I I touted him all offseason. and I think he's great. Obviously, CD got out to a
11:24really hot start. Um, but man, Dak Prescott in in two very different game scripts, he's kind of balling. I mean, I
11:33think he looks really good. Pickins has got the targets. He just hasn't converted them all to receptions.
11:38Obviously, this is one where I think the role is just too good on a team where the defense is garbage. Dak's going to
11:44be near the top in in drop backs. I'm same position I had on him all offseason. I just think now the cost is
11:51going to be even cheaper than it was, which was like a late round two cost. I I think you got to check in. Your owner
11:56that drafted him, you know, he he might be a little desperate for for some help, especially, you know, if he's a late
12:04what? He was a late round two pick, right, Scott? Pre preseason.
12:08>> Yeah, around >> two or three, >> you know. So there Go ahead.
12:13>> So I definitely agree with this like this. You're you're absolutely right and I could see both CD Lamb and George
12:19Pickkins finishing as fantasy wide receiver ones. That happens a lot more than you'd think and like I'm getting like Brady Buccaneers vibes with this
12:30Cowboys team or you know Evans Godwin maybe. Um but this offense looks incredible right now. They're first in points per drive which is like kind of
12:39crazy if you think about you know the 49ers who just played the Dolphins or what the Bills have done. It's the
12:45Cowboys right now who have the most efficient offense in football. So, of course, yeah, we should expect better days ahead from George Pickkins. Here's
12:53my concern.
12:55There's a lot of talk this off season about getting Pickkins more work in the slot. You're not seeing that. Actually, it's he's seeing even less work in the
13:03slot, more work for Ryan Florenoi. Uh, a lot of talk about him running more shallower routes, which are the more valuable routes. Um, and so a player
13:14whose real life NFL impact is massive, even when he doesn't really show up in the box score, I was hoping a little
13:22more of an impact from a fantasy perspective and he kind of needed those shallower routes and shallower targets, slot routes, and you have not seen that
13:31through two weeks. So, I I think the role from that perspective is a little underwhelming, but no doubt the number two receiver on what and what's probably
13:41going to be the the team that leads the league in passing yards this year. Uh obviously very bullish and better days
13:47lie ahead.
13:47>> I mean, his his average depth of route run is is down.
13:52>> So, it's it's not just >> I mean, his A dot climbed slightly. His average depth of the route was about the
13:57same and slot rate went from like >> 15% to 9%.
14:04>> We talk about the same guy.
14:05>> Yeah. George Pickkins.
14:07>> Yeah. I mean, he played primarily X last year, like 85%.
14:12>> I I know. I'm I'm just saying I I you this was your number one ride or die and I was like well hey if if they if they
14:19get him in the slot more if they do this >> I don't even think he needed that but >> so so you say Pickkins is the more
14:26valuable real life NFL wide receiver and I'm sure that's true but like utilization for utilization it's it's CD Lamb is in the more valuable role for
14:36fantasy >> two weeks a lot >> through two weeks through two weeks the other thing I'd like to point out with
14:42Cowboys in general for both CD and George Pickkins and Dak Prescott, they can't run the football. They're dead last in the NFL in adjusted yards before
14:52contact per run attempt. It's like less than one. So on average, their backs are getting hit within one yard line of
15:00scrimmage on every that's ridiculous.
15:02And on top of that, Tyler Smith, their allp pro left guard, is on IR, you know, no idea when he'll be back. So,
15:11>> and their defense is awful.
15:12>> Yeah. And their defense is awful. So, they're going to be in in just amazing game scripts to to take advantage of of,
15:19you know, [snorts] Pickkins and Lamb skill set. Um, yeah, Drake London, Atlanta Falcons wide receiver. I I'm not sure I would check in on him cuz
15:29this quarterback situation's untenable.
15:32But he's been such a nothing through two weeks, Scott, that like if you if you can truly get him at like a big
15:38discount, maybe maybe a checkin. Where are you at?
15:42>> I mean, it was so bad with Cooper Rush.
15:44was really just like a totally nonviable offense where like he could have scored negative fantasy points both weeks and you're just like
15:52>> yeah, you know, that's that's really not his fault. It's not too surprising. Um he might be like Michael Penn might be
16:03coming to save the day here. Um because if you look at his numbers with Michael Penn throughout his career and over a
16:09fairly robust sample size, I think it's eight or 10 games, he averages 20.6 fantasy points per game with a 40% first
16:18read target share, a 33% uh target share. And so it's like, yeah, I think um I think Michael Penn
16:27understands the assignment. And so there was there was a lot of concern on Twitter over his his slat lack of slat
16:35usage in week one.
16:37>> And I was kind of saying, listen, this was a Mickey Mouse offense where Bejan Robinson just set the the record for
16:44target share by a running back. You really can't read too much into that.
16:47And again, he did jack [ __ ] in week two, but guess what? He had a 57% slot rate.
16:53That is awesome. And then is that exactly what you want from Drake London who is at his best in that power slot
16:59role. There's certainly a pathway for this to backfire because like yeah, Cooper Rush was awful, but it's not like Michael Pennix is really great. He just
17:07knows to force feed London the ball. Uh and the offensive line isn't great and the offensive coordinator might be a
17:15fake sharp. Um so there's a lot of there's a lot of things going on here, but yeah, I I I would check in on him.
17:23It's like, hey, you could listen, if you're paying w round five prices for a guy go who was going in round two, um,
17:30that's a huge win for you. I think >> I one thing I'd add about the the role switch up from week one to week two, I
17:37don't know that I can remember an such a stark contrast example of a star wide receiver having his role completely changed after one week. Like dude, week
17:48one he was primarily the exceiver, played on the outside on 80% of snaps and then literally overnight they flipped it.
17:55>> Yeah.
17:56>> Like that's like the classic Bradley Cooper meme. We effed up.
18:01>> It's like the guy in the film room was like, "You don't know the meme?"
18:04>> No.
18:05>> From The Hangover.
18:06>> What?
18:09>> Let me Let me >> You've never seen The Hangover?
18:12>> I've seen it. I don't know the meme or the reference.
18:15Oh man, it's it's a great it's a great mo great great scene from a funny movie.
18:20But anyways, >> oh okay, I get >> that. That's that's the Falcons when they got in the film room after week
18:25one. It's like, oh man, we effed up. So like they they flipped it. 12 routes run from the slot. He spent, you know, as
18:31you said, 57% of his his pass downs in the slot, which is just like a massive departure from the way they were using
18:37him week one. So I I think that is positive. Uh I didn't know the Penn splits. That's really nice to hear that
18:43that gives me a little more confidence.
18:44So definitely a guy you want to check in on.
18:47All right, let's move on. Let's go buy lows. These are guys that we uh we are assuming your league mates are going to be a little sour on
18:57for one reason or another and that you should be able to get, you know, at a cost less than their ADP. I' I'd even
19:04like you to think in terms of like what you would pay to acquire, said guys Scott, if we can as we work through some
19:10of these. Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Tucker Craft. We're just listing all the Packers guys. I have a little bit of a contrarian take here for you.
19:19>> Yeah.
19:19>> I don't know that these guys are actually by low except for Craft.
19:23>> Okay.
19:24>> The main reason being Watson's been awesome through two weeks. Do you think you have a league mate that's looking at
19:29his production and his role going, "Oo, I think I might want to sell low on this guy."
19:37>> Well, I mean, you never know. Um, this was an Exodia runner up for me. He didn't make the the five Exodas
19:43unfortunately, but he was he was right there. Um, yeah, it's it's this looks to be an incredible setup for Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Tucker Craft,
19:55and Josh Jacobs, uh, who I think is going to come back in week seven. It's so the Green Bay Packers were bottom
20:03three in pass rate over expectation over the previous two seasons combined. right now they're top 12. The defense looks awful. Um
20:14but but these players were always elite and hyperefficient on a per route basis.
20:19Christian Watson was uh since the start of last season wide receiver nine by fantasy points per route run. Tucker Craft was the tight end three. Jaden
20:28Reed was the wide receiver 23. And the big issue was again how how runheavy they wanted to be. And then this gross
20:37four-way, fiveway wide receiver rotation that had Romeo Dobs and Dante Tavian Wixs in it. But now you lost Jaden Reed, so it's even more condensed. Uh
20:47Christian Watson's balling out. Yeah, maybe maybe he's not a buy low. Um but but certainly the other two are Tucker Craft, you know, we were told they were
20:56going to take it easy on him. It was going to be slow ramp up and he just hit a careerhigh in route share. I don't
21:02think they have that luxury anymore. um without Jaden Reed. You said Matthew Golden looks incredible on tape. Um and
21:12again, I think Josh like the the running game sucks and maybe it's going to suck all year, but you know, Josh Jacobs
21:18could be could be free and he he could be uh you know, back to 20 touches in week seven.
21:24>> That's completely unverified information, by the way.
21:26>> I'm saying he could be.
21:27>> Yeah. Um the other component here that I want to bring up is this offensive line is stinky bad.
21:33>> Yeah. You see it in the run game, but you see it in the pass game as well. The past concepts they're having to live in
21:39are not traditional Green Bay stuff. In fact, no quarterback year-over-year from 2025 to 2026 has had to drop their average time to throw more than Jordan
21:49Love has. He went from over 2.6 average time to throw to 2.31 seconds this year.
21:56>> It's This is unlike any version of Jordan Love we've ever seen. This is ball out quick. It's It's almost too
22:02fast they're having to play it and and it's very deliberate. They're protecting Jordan from this stinky bad offensive line. They just had another season
22:10ending injury to a starter starting offensive lineman as well. This is not a good situation for them. And I I've said
22:16it I think after week one that this might be the worst offensive line Green Bay has ever had in my lifetime. I I was
22:23born in 1987. So, um I we're in trouble here is all I'm saying.
22:28>> Yeah. What's what's also interesting too, I just pulled it up in uh Fantasy Points data suite 2.0 is uh Christian
22:35Watson, Tuckercraft, and Matthew Golden are all typically guys who requir their numbers, targets per route run,
22:44yards per route run go way up when Jordan Love has time in the pocket, ideally more than 2.5 seconds. Under 2.5
22:53seconds, these guys are at a disadvantage. And it was it was Dantavian Wixs and Romeo Dobs who are the guys were heavily targeted uh when
23:01when Love is getting the ball out quickly. So yeah, there's like certainly a pathway where like hey this is just a
23:06bad offense that you don't want pieces of. I again I I think Matt Laflur is is a great play caller certainly from a
23:16fantasy perspective.
23:17>> Yeah.
23:17>> Yeah. Um, and let's let's not lose sight of like Jordan Love being like fringe top five in EPA per drop back, fantasy
23:25points per drop back every year. Um, so I have a hard time.
23:28>> Hold on, hold on, hold on. I can't let you get away with this every show.
23:33Jordan Love is not top five in EPA per drop back. The Green Bay Packers passing offense is top five in EPA per dropback.
23:40It's not the same thing. It's not a It's not a player stat. Don't attribute EPA per drop back to a player. For the love
23:46of God, please don't.
23:47>> Right. Either way, I'm saying I think there's a fall way, a far fall off from really efficient offense to nonviable
23:56offense. Uh, and especially when it's so condensed, when the the defense is bad, they're leaning more pass heavy. So, I I
24:04think this is a buy. I feel pretty good about it.
24:06>> I think >> you want to talk about Matthew Golden's tape real quick, too.
24:10>> Yeah. actually and it kind of parlays off of what you said about him being a better late in the down type of player.
24:18Um, I think that the opposite is is manifesting right now. And I think maybe he might end up being the biggest
24:24beneficiary of this quick hit scheme they're running right now because some of these wins we're seeing on tape are insanely fast wins like developed
24:32release package.
24:33>> Um, they're running them on a ton of inbreakers, slants, crossers, and and he's winning those reps at a really high
24:38level. So, and there something I also want to point out because Eli Dansson, a charter here at Fantasy Points Data, who's a huge Packers fan, um I was
24:46commenting on how impressed I was with Matthew Golden, and in fact, I said it was the first time I've ever really been
24:50impressed with this NFL tape, and he's like, "Well, you just haven't been watching the tape then," which is obviously not true. The distinction for
24:57me is the discipline in the route running. So, it's like, "Hey, when he's running that inbreak from the slot, it's he's cutting off the it's the fourth
25:05step of his inside foot." Like, that's the correct depth. He's actually running routes at the correct depth. The brakes are smooth and efficient. There's no
25:14false steps. It's not just tick- tock, make it up as you go route running. When he when he hits a release as an ex
25:20receiver, uh you against a press corner, it's actually a release that is part of the playbook, part of the scheme, and
25:28he's winning with the release he's being given. And so I I think these are big wins and uh a huge case for the
25:35development in his game that should result in in significantly better production.
25:41>> I love it. Yeah. For the folks at home who don't know, like I think Brett's the best wide receiver film evaluator in the
25:48game. He's he's the inventor of ass. So yeah, that that means a lot to me.
25:53>> As far as like what are you willing to move to acquire these players? Like who are you trading for Christian? And I
25:59don't want to hear like two for one things cuz I think those are far-fetched usually. Who's like a one for one player
26:05you'd give up for Christian Watson right now.
26:07>> Um I don't know. Give throw me some names. Not prepared for this.
26:11>> Okay. Um let's say you're on the sell high end of it. Would you would you trade a Devonte Adams for him? I know it's a receiver
26:20for receiver trade is not super likely.
26:22What about a Kairen Williams? Would you move Kairen Kairen Williams for?
26:25>> Sure. Yeah, absolutely.
26:27Um, what about Omari and Hampton?
26:30>> Uh, I'd move T. Higgins. I'd move T McMillan. I'd move >> What about running back? Give me a running back.
26:38>> Cuz chances are if you're if you're looking to buy low on a wide receiver, it's because you need wide receiver
26:44help. So, you're probably not trading wide receivers to acquire wide receiver help.
26:47>> I'd move Quinnon Judkins, David Montgomery, Tayvon Henderson. Monty's a good one cuz that that was an Exodia running back for
26:58you.
26:58>> Yeah.
26:59>> Um and we're what we're concerned about the role now, right? He's kind of splitting time with Woody.
27:03>> I mean, kind of. It was really it was really weird, honestly. I I like I think you nailed it. I think Nick Kaye is a
27:10total Ponzi scheme. I think he's I mean, this is one of the things. So, I was talking about at the start of this show
27:16is like don't overreact to two weeks.
27:19Um, and and part of that is like like logic and reason prevails at the end of the day. This happens so often. I've
27:28done this job so many times where like always the worst part of my year are the first four weeks of the season where
27:35people panic and like why did you tell me to draft this guy? And I like I'm looking pre hindsight. I'm like it would
27:41be so stupid for this team to do this.
27:44Although they keep telling us they're gonna do it, but like the price is right, so whatever. I'm gonna bet on it.
27:50And then the first four weeks, they do the something stupid, it doesn't work.
27:54They do something stupid, it doesn't work. They do something stupid, it doesn't work. And then we get to October, and then logic and reason
28:01prevails, and they do the smart thing, and then this guy I told you to draft is amazing. It just was a bumpy ride for
28:07the first couple of weeks of the season until logic and reason prevail. But like a big concern heading in was just like
28:15idiot play callers. And so you see that with the Miami Dolphins, but like I think the they they must have told Bobby
28:22like uh hey you're going to keep your job if we get the first overall pick and take Arch Manning. So just do everything
28:29you can. So despite trailing on 90% of their plays, they're dead last. in pace of play. Um they're Malik Willis has two design like
28:41unforgivable sins. You have the worst wide receiver trio in the league in Houston without Nico Collins and you're playing 11 personnel like at the the
28:52league's third highest rate. Like it's absolutely stupid. And the their utilization with the running backs is also stupid. Um, you have David
29:02Montgomery who's one of the best man gap runners in the league. You have him, you know, uh, taking like 80% of the
29:10backfield zone carries. Beyond that, it's like you had Woody Marks play on like 80% of the short down and distance.
29:17This dude stinks. And he he's like a glorified scatback. And so, like, this drives me crazy. And yeah, it is it is a
29:24little alarming. It is a little concerning, but one must think Brett that at the end of the day, logic and reason prevaile will prevail. You you
29:33see the pressure. You see Lance Zerline, a big uh person in the Houston scene, really trashing, clowning on Nick Haley for his awful uh play calling, his his
29:44dumb decisions, and hopefully logic and reason will prevail. Um but yeah, that's that's part of the thesis.
29:53>> I like it. Um, I want >> It's also part of my individual draft strategy is like my teams always are
29:59slow starters and then ideally these steamroll through the playoffs. Why?
30:04Because making the playoffs is easy.
30:06Winning the championship is hard. So you want those juggernauts and so like again September matters a lot less to me than
30:13December, January.
30:14>> That said, you're still willing to trade David Montgomery for Christian Watson?
30:19>> Yeah, probably. I mean like so he's he's 2024 Joe Mixon like he's just going to be volatile but games where Houston wins
30:27their defense is is really strong they get a a turnover he's going to have 20 plus touches 21 fantasy points and then
30:36yeah weeks without Nico Collins by the way weeks where you know negative game script it's going to be a little rougher
30:42>> I know I've like hated on the Texans O line situation several times on this podcast I will say though like being
30:49objective myself. It's that there's a lot of moving parts, right? They've got a rookie at left guard, uh, you know, a
30:57new a new center in Evan Brown, um, a new left tackle and Arante Ersery. So, it's like it's going to take time for
31:03those guys to gel. There is a chance by mid-season this offensive line's playing way better than they have through the first two weeks. There is a chance. So,
31:11um, I want to blindside you with something real quick and get a live reaction to you. Breaking news from Adam Shear. Further testing today revealed
31:20Giants quarterback Jackson Dart's knee injury is worse than initially thought and and basically might require season ending knee surgery.
31:29>> Are we back? Are >> you want to blindside me that are back?
31:33You want to see me pull a Bud Dwire live on the fantasy?
31:36>> What is Bud Dwire? Is that is that something super dark I don't want to know about?
31:40>> Yeah.
31:41>> Okay, let's [laughter] >> um Yeah, back to back to dog breeds. Um, yeah, cocker spaniel was named after the woodcock, which is a a bird native to
31:53the United Kingdom. Uh, >> this is starting to scare me. Let's Let's move on for real. Let's move on for real. I The fact that you're
32:01recalling this much information from dogs is crazy.
32:04>> Um, podcast I wanted to do.
32:08>> Motion man, >> forcing me against my will to talk about football and one of the darkest days, Brett.
32:14>> Yeah. Let's talk about these 49ers players now. Okay, got Mike Evans and Debo Samuel buying low. Um, for one, why
32:22is Mike Evans a buy low?
32:24>> Well, I mean, he was an Exodia and he's been okay. He hasn't been melting people's faces like Parker Washington.
32:33Um, listen, he's still top three and ass.
32:38Uh, you have the 49ers offense balling out. But I think Brock Pury just might have had the highest QBR in NFL history
32:46or since QBR became a stat. The 49ers ranked top three in yards per play, points per drive, EPA per play. Um, you
32:55have shribbling on IR. You have Demarcus Robinson has an high ankle sprain. And so, yeah, Mike Evans, I mean, it was a
33:03game Brock Pury only threw the ball 22 times. He picked up like a hip thing that's like not major. like yanked him
33:10early in that game because the Dolphins are such a joke. Uh but it's like a really valuable offense that looks to be
33:18even more condensed. Um one way this might backfire, Brett, honestly, is like is this an elite 49ers defense with Bobby Wagner back? Um but you know, I
33:29think in competitive games, >> they played the Miami Dolphins in a Rams team that was on zero hours of sleep because Shawn McVey decided to fly them
33:37out day of the game. Great, great call.
33:40Great call. And so you just have this like super potent, high-powered offense uh that's now more condensed. Dude, I still feel great about Mike Evans. Don't
33:48forget, he's been a little banged up, but um still still the the elite ass is there.
33:55>> Yeah. And I I just really do like wide receivers attached to really good quarterbacks. And Brock Pie's balling.
34:01So >> Oh. Oh, is he a really good quarterback?
34:03Because I tried to tell you that for a long time ago and I was met with some resistance.
34:08>> Where is he Brett? Put rank him. Rank him. Brock party >> blind ranking.
34:12>> Yeah. Is the xth best at quarterback in the NFL right now today. Soler X.
34:22>> I think I I would be okay if we started talking about him in the seven eight range.
34:29>> That's still too low.
34:30>> No, it's still too low. Yeah, >> that's like five spots higher than when we did our QB episode a couple months
34:35ago.
34:35>> Yeah. Well, you're you're you're getting closer and closer to where I am, which means you're getting closer and closer to being right.
34:42>> I al you're so dumb. I also think uh there's a there's a cluster of guys you're getting into there where whether
34:49it's like Goff and Dad.
34:52>> Oh god, Pertie is so much better than Goff.
34:56>> I really don't think that's true, but all right, >> bro. Imagine imagine Goff with Pert's offensive line the last three years he
35:02would be Gino Smith.
35:05>> Okay.
35:06>> All right. Next player.
35:08>> So yeah, Debo Sam.
35:10>> Our next dog. You want to talk about the next dog breed?
35:12>> Debo Samuel.
35:14>> I It's the same thing. It's a more condensed offense without shribbling, without Demarcus Robinson. Um and it's a potent offense. He gets these like
35:26screens and dump offs. So, you know, a higher floor than you think and just like this is an offense with a lot of
35:32touchdown equity, I believe.
35:35>> Okay. Uh I don't really have a take on Debo. I'm not a big fan. Don't lose.
35:39>> I don't think he's playable right now.
35:41So, >> yeah. I mean, he's like a what the heck flex. He's somewhere around there, but like I don't know if
35:48>> So, what are you what are you trading for Debo Samuel?
35:51>> Uh this is this is tough to kind of say going in blind. Um, >> well, it's not blind. You put them on
35:59the show sheet. What do you mean?
36:00>> I don't know. Uh, Blake Quorum, Kyle Manangi, um, >> Alex Pierce, Jordan Addison.
36:10>> Yeah, I mean, Addison's probably Johnston at this point.
36:13>> Uh, Courtland Sutton, Mai Lemon, >> Courtland Sutton. Okay, now we're getting somewhere. Okay. Sutton, Debo, Manungi for Debo, >> Chris Godwin, Alex, I don't know. So you
36:24want to trade some w receivers for other wash receivers? I got it.
36:27>> Yeah.
36:27>> Luther Burton, he's a buy low. He's obviously underperformed through two weeks. Khalif Raymond has led the Chicago Bears in the passing attack week
36:36one and week two minus the final drive of week two. So >> yeah, I I refuse to believe Khalif Raymond is going to be a thing. Uh right
36:44now he ranks dead last in separation win rate 0.0%.
36:50Luther Burden very quietly ranks third among all wide receivers in first read target share. He's directly in between Z
36:59Flowers and Nico Collins. You look at this offense. They dropped 60 points in their first game. Was one of the best
37:06rushing performances in a decade and then they faced maybe the toughest defense in the league last week where Caleb was under pressure on like 60% of
37:15his drop backs. These were not normal games. Okay. So I'm I I I feel like one of Romo Dunay by the way who's who's
37:26smashing an ass Coulson Loveland Luther Burden at least one at least one and maybe two are going to flop but given
37:33that first read target share I feel best about Luther Burden my Exodia I really think Tyson Bean's going to come in
37:42pepper him with targets you know run the Ben Johnson offense not this BS bail from the pocket constantly throw on the
37:50move these, you know, scramble drill plays. I think it's going to perfectly suit Luther Burden skill set and that's what they see. But here's a pathway to
37:59where I'm dead wrong. Uh Brett, I was let's say Caleb's only out a week. Like I said, Luther Burton seems to be the
38:08number one, which is what you heard Ben Johnson more or less saying. He comped him to Jarvis Landry. He comped him to
38:14Aman Ross St. Brown two of his former wide receivers who led the league in receptions under Ben Johnson. It seems like he's the featured number one by
38:22that first read target share stat I referenced. Part of the issue is no quarterback targets their first read less frequently than Caleb Williams. Um
38:33is that a real serious concern for Luther Burton and this offense moving forward?
38:38>> This is a multi-layered question because the thesis is wrong in general. Okay, >> your your first read share thing with
38:44with Burton is completely inflated by one drive in which he had five targets to close that game out. It was a
38:51two-minute drill with one minute on the clock.
38:54>> I think it was three targets, but yeah, I mean, >> it was at least four for sure and maybe one was a no play. Maybe he got targeted
39:00and it was a no play, but um yeah, point being it's like you take that drive out, what are we looking at?
39:07>> Yeah. Okay. Well, you take out Khalif Raymond, who I refuse to believe is real. Then what does it look like?
39:13>> But you can't just take him out. He's played both games the whole game. He played more snaps than Luther Burton in
39:17week two.
39:19>> So you can't you can't >> 0% separation win rate.
39:22>> That's one aspect of playing wide receiver. And not to mention >> he makes $4 million guaranteed.
39:27>> Not not to mention that's one aspect of playing receiver, Scott. Not to mention what they're asking him to do doesn't
39:33require a lot of separation.
39:36And they're they're zero graded plays.
39:39Listen, Luther Burden went off at the tail end of last season. Uh I think it took him a while because he was a
39:45rookie, >> okay?
39:46>> And now he missed just about all of August with injuries. I think it's only a matter of time until you see Luther
39:54Burton in like the 2.5 screen targets per game, plus Caleb hitting him on some deep shots wide open because he's nice
40:04like that. And so I I I refuse to give up on my Exodia wide receiver. I'm still bullish.
40:09>> So how long how many shows in a row we can have the same conversation about about Burden?
40:16>> Until you admit I'm right.
40:18>> I need evidence to suggest you're right.
40:20>> Until Until this becomes a show about dog breeding like I I want.
40:24>> Okay.
40:26All right. I'm going to answer the other part of your question and then we'll move on. Is Beent better for Burden? I
40:30think probably. There was once a moment in Beent's rookie season where he had to play in a game and they threw the same
40:36exact screen play, like the same exact design on three plays in a row. They were just alternating which side >> and total five out of six plays. So they
40:44threw five screens in six plays uh when Begent was a rookie at quarterback. And so I think that's kind of funny. All
40:51right, move on to the next next tier people.
40:55Lad Man McConkey, Jadarian Price, Bucky Irving. Um, Lad is an obvious boow. Uh, came out week one with a bang.
41:05Completely dysfunctional offense without him. Well, I was dysfunctional with him as well in week two. But point being, owner of Vlad Makanki might be a little
41:13upset. He He is a little dinged up. I think the the general vibes on the Chargers offense are just bad right now. And so,
41:21you could probably get some value out of trading for him. I'm sure you're gonna you're gonna gloat about Maki the same
41:27way you do on every show.
41:29>> No. Uh I think he's a great buy. You know, there is real serious concern here that he has a crack rib and you know,
41:35it's going to take him a while to go back to being a full-time player. So, you know, this is sort of the luxury of
41:42being one of these teams that start off hot, have a lot of depth, is you can you can be p you could, you know, maybe
41:48someone starts 0 and2, they feel like they can't they don't have the luxury of remaining patient on lad maki, whereas you do, you can buy him cheap. Um, and
41:56yeah, it's dude, he he was going nuclear in week one before that injury. Um, and the offense is just totally nonviable
42:03without him. And you saw that in week two as well with Manki on the field, 0.2 2 EPA per play with him off the field
42:10minus0.6.
42:12That's a that's and that's exactly what happened in week one. So it's like yeah, is he actually in the Tyreek Hill role?
42:18Um certainly >> Oh my god, stop saying that.
42:21>> Certainly appears to be a valuable one for fantasy. So I I like me some Lad Manki.
42:27>> If I hear Lad Mccanki's name in Tyreek Hill roll one more time, I'm freaking quitting the show.
42:33>> Uh all right, Jadeian. So, who are you trading for Lad Maki though?
42:39>> I don't give me names, bro.
42:42>> It's No, you give me names. My brain doesn't work.
42:44>> He's your boow.
42:46>> Um, >> like if you were constructing a trade offer right now, >> uh, Devon
42:54Devon Vy plus would do um, Romo Dunay plus Jameson Williams plus.
43:02>> What about Tay Van Henderson? DJ.
43:06Oh, in a heartbeat. Yeah, absolutely.
43:09>> Okay.
43:11>> Garrett Wilson, I would trade straight out.
43:14>> Jarian Price. Um, Seattle is in one of these unique situations where they're going to run the ball a million times
43:20this year. They're just coming off a game where they ran 40 times. Price was in the driver's seat to be the big
43:24beneficiary. George Holani was finally taking a back seat. And then Price goes out with an injury. In comes Emanuel Wilson. 21 carries later. Uh, looks like
43:35a very that would have been a very fun game script to get 20 plus carries out of Jiren Price. However, we missed out
43:40on that.
43:42He could be by low though because he is hurt right now.
43:47>> Yeah, right now there's only two running backs who rank top five in both miss tackles force per attempt and yards
43:53after contact per attempt. One of which is Jadarian Price. You see it on the screen right there. Bro, you had the the
44:00coach say heading into week two as we're going to put more and more on his plate.
44:03We wanted to see how things went for the rookie in his first ever game. Didn't play much in preseason. He would have
44:09nuked last week if he stayed healthy. He had 14 touches and then Emanuel Wilson who stinks had 21. So yeah, I think this
44:16is a great great great buying opportunity.
44:21>> Bucky Irving to round out the buy lows.
44:23Tampa Bay running back. You guys are obviously higher on him than I am. I will say though that like I thought
44:30Genneth Kenneth Gainwell I almost had to Genneth Cainwell Kenneth Gainwell has been basically not involved in the offense at all and uh
44:39Buckyy's been the lone back ba you know through two weeks at least. So what do you got on Bucky?
44:47>> Um to me this one feels easy right now.
44:50He ranks ninth in snapshare, sixth in target share. Uh, and then as a rookie, he had one of the best fantasy point per
44:56snap seasons ever. Uh, and he was a really hyper efficient player coming out of college as well. So, yeah, I think
45:03this was a guy I was wrong on, and I should have been much higher.
45:07>> Fun. What do you What would you trade for?
45:10>> Oh, god. Give me names. I don't like this.
45:13>> Well, where where was Bucky going in the draft, Scott? Let's start there.
45:17>> Uh, I have to tell you off the top of my memory, he was going uh RB19.
45:26He was going after Cam Scataboo, after Travis Etchane.
45:30>> So was like what fifth fifth, sixth round >> before David Montgomery, before DeAndre Swift, before Quinnshot Judkins, Tayvon Henderson.
45:39>> All right. So take a receiver from that same range because chances are if you're trading Bucky Irving, you're going to be
45:44a wide receiver heavy build based on where he was going in the draft. So >> all right, who's a wide receiver in that
45:49range?
45:51Um, >> Brian Thomas Jr., DK Medaf, Marvin Harrison Jr., all those guys suck.
45:59>> Would you trade Would you trade Bucky for a Lad Mac?
46:04>> No, I' I'd rather have Lad.
46:06>> That's what I'm saying.
46:07>> Yeah.
46:09>> Okay.
46:11Oh, okay. I got you. Um, what about uh Luther Burton?
46:19Uh, I don't know. It It depends on Yeah, probably Bucky, but it it depends on on your team and your build.
46:26>> Okay.
46:27>> Probably. Yeah, Bucky.
46:30>> Good. What about like Brian Thomas Jr.?
46:32>> Oh, Bucky in a heartbeat.
46:35>> Okay. All right. Good stuff. Let's move over to sell high. We're going to start with a cluster of Rams, I believe. Or
46:43not. No, we are not. I lied. Uh, Trayvon Henderson, Omari and Hampton, O Isaiah Likely.
46:50We've talked about Henderson and Hampton a lot. If you go to the week 2 recap video we did with Ryan Heath, we hit
46:55both those guys pretty strongly. Some really good talk and debate in there.
46:59However, for Henderson, I know you're just not a believer and you believe Raman's role returns to normal. If that is true, Trayvon is absolutely a sell
47:07high. Get rid of him now. His stock is super high. had the explosive run, had the role all the Trayvon truthers want.
47:14So, you got to find that Trayvon fan in your league and uh and sell him right now.
47:20>> Yeah. Listen, you don't want to hear this, but you made a mistake drafting Trayvon Henderson. I feel pretty confident that, hey, if I'm wrong, I'll
47:26take the L. But uh I really think you know what happened in week two was really just Raandre fumbled, got put in
47:33the doghouse. Vrabel, a really old school head coach who came up with Bill Bich. I think next week it goes back to
47:40being, you know, that gross 6040 7030 split in Raandre's favor. Um, I think he's an overrated player. I think you kind of agree with that. Um, so I think
47:50now is your chance to get out. Um, but again, who knows? Maybe I'm wrong. Ryan Ryan thinks I could be wrong and if I
47:58am, I I'll own that.
47:59>> Yeah, I agree with your take on Henderson. Where I disagree is I don't know that that's the Patriots take on
48:04Henderson.
48:06Um, I've made the case several times, you know, very highly touted prospect by them. They drafted him at the top 40
48:12pick, had a very productive rookie season on a team that wants to be a run first offense. It it seems like, you
48:20know, maybe uh maybe they want him to have a massive role. So, I don't know. I I I definitely agree. I'm selling high
48:26just because I'm skeptical of him long term. I think he's also an injury risk.
48:30Doesn't play through injuries. He's kind of a puss. So, I'm selling them based on that notion. Omari and Hampton in a
48:37similar boat. Hampton's a a really tough case, Scott, because it's really like it sounds like we're winging about a guy that had 25 touches in a game, but
48:47it's like I don't believe in the offense. I don't believe in the the scheme relative to Hampton. And uh Ryan Heath actually had a great poll on um
48:56running backs. Gosh, if you could find it, Trey, I'm sorry. I should have provided it for you, but running backs that average over 16 fantasy points per
49:05game that play less than 30% of their team's pass downs. It's like only Derrick Henry in history.
49:11>> Yeah.
49:12>> And Omarian Hampton is currently in that boat.
49:14>> So, it's like the writing is kind of on the wall that that's not like he's not going to sustain the fantasy production
49:20with the current workload that he has.
49:23>> Yeah, probably not. Um, you you also talked about this in the offseason that Hampton's a bad fit for Mike McDaniel's
49:30offense. I we we're showing it on the screen here. Uh, he ranks second worst in yards per carry on zone concept runs.
49:37He ranks top five in man concept runs where yeah, this is a Mike McDaniel offense that loves him some zone. So,
49:46that's concerning. I mean, he could still be like a really valuable fantasy running back if the Chargers are way better, uh, like everyone thought they
49:56would be and not awful like they've been. But, uh, I mean, to me, that's just another concern. And if you can get
50:02out from Hampton, I I would encourage you to do so. Um, you know, part of the thesis was, like you said, he was going
50:08to get a lot of targets because he was a a really capable pass catcher in college, and you're not seeing that
50:14either. the the thing about the passcatching stuff is he never projected as a pass game weapon.
50:21>> Yeah.
50:21>> Like there's a big difference between a guy you're scheming targets for in the pass game like a Jier Gibbs or a BJ
50:26Robinson versus just a guy who's adequate at checkdowns. And that's what Hampton was like uber productive on checkdowns, but he doesn't have like the
50:34movement skills and the lateral quickness to be like a legit route runner, if that makes sense. So, I I I have always kind of wondered what his
50:41functional role in a pass NFL pass offense would be versus college. All right, Isaiah Likely, uh, New York Giants tight end. I mean,
50:51now with the news of Jackson Dart being out likely the remainder of the season, this is obvious sell high.
50:58>> Well, is it is it Brett? I mean, Jameus Winston has been a fantasy cheat code for a really long time. Uh, so over the last three
51:09seasons, Jamus has played eight games with a 90% snap share. Over that span, he averages 22.4 fantasy points per game. That's behind only Josh Allen.
51:19232.5 catchable air yards per game. 307.4 passing yards per game. That's overall QB1. Overall QB1 on catchable as well.
51:30Um, and so like yeah, it could just be like it's kind of funny. Jamus feels like the most antithetical quarterback to what Harbaugh wants, but uh
51:40historically he just kind of goes full yolo and chucks it and it's really good for his his fantasy uh pass catchers and
51:49so you know with Malik Neighbors seriously banged up. Who else did he have? It's it's really just Isaiah likely and Malachi Field. So I I don't
51:58this I don't know that this is a sell high.
52:00>> How how big is that sample that you just gave that threeear sample? Eight games.
52:04>> Eight games. Okay. And one of them is the notorious um Cleveland game where he played was it Denver on like on Monday night? Yeah.
52:13>> I'd like to see like to see the rest of the data without that game in there. He had over 500 yards in that game.
52:18>> If you remove it, he's still first, believe it or not.
52:21>> No way.
52:23>> Yeah.
52:25>> Really? Okay.
52:26>> Yeah.
52:27>> That's insane. All right. Well, so are you >> but to but to be fair that was an entirely different uh coaching staff,
52:36you know, so and he looked like complete utter dog [ __ ] last last night.
52:43>> Yeah. Really good defense.
52:44>> He looked awful. [snorts] >> Yeah.
52:48>> And so like you know Harbaugh's not a guy who likes turnovers.
52:53>> Is there a coach that likes turnovers?
52:55>> He was more forgiving.
52:56>> Stfansky didn't have a choice. What do you mean?
52:58>> Yeah.
52:59>> And now And now the Giants are in a situation where they don't have a choice. So well, are you changing your
53:04opinion on likely then or are we selling high still?
53:06>> No. No. I I He's a hold. He's a hold.
53:09He's He should >> He's a Okay.
53:12>> All right. Well, >> because is his stock probably went down without Dart, but I I don't know that it really should. And again, hey, if
53:19Neighbors is out there, he could just PPR scam his way to an easy top five finish at the position.
53:25>> Okay, cool.
53:27All right, let's get rolling on the next group of guys. We have two Rams and Devonte Adams and Kairen Williams.
53:32You're saying sell high. I I understand the Dvonte one. You just had like a a career game, one of top three
53:39performances of his career for sure. So yeah, and Puka is coming back. That makes sense. You would sell high there.
53:45>> Again, he had a 54% snap share in week one. He wasn't getting the the 13 personnel usage. He only had one snap
53:53inside the red zone versus like 11 for Puka. And >> do you think Scott, not to cut you off, but we're going to hit a point in this
54:01season where we just throw out week one for the Rams as an outlier considering the circumstances.
54:05>> That's probably right. But still, it's, you know, usage concerning. And then on top of all this, he's old and injuryprone. And so people forget about
54:12that. Like Travis Kelce going off week one, week two. Listen, he's old. Like he's going to be at his best in
54:19September. And then you're going to see a steady decline from that point on. So, hey, like like I I mean, dude, it's
54:26still like the Rams are an awesome offense. I'm not desperate to sell Devonte Adams by any measure. I'm I'm just keep this one in the back of your
54:34mind.
54:35>> Yeah, but the implication here is sell high.
54:38>> Yeah.
54:38>> Meaning you're getting more value than than you think he's worth. That's the whole point. Yeah. If someone's going to make you a Godfather offer for Dvonte
54:46Adams, strongly consider it for sure.
54:49Same with Kairen Williams. I I don't think we need to break this down, but he's in a split backfield situation.
54:53>> I mean, it's it it it looks like an ugly split backfield. 55% of the snaps.
54:59>> Yeah.
54:59>> 12 of 24 carries, two of three targets.
55:03>> It's Yeah. Not looking great, >> right? So, if anyone wants Kairen Williams and you can get plus value out of him, absolutely trade him. Next two,
55:12we've got Travis Kelce and Jaylen Coker, the Cokehead.
55:17Um, yeah, Kelsey, you already kind of broke down Kelsey. I don't know that we need a whole lot of dialogue there. He's
55:22old. As the season wears on, he will slow down. The only push back you're going to get from me a little bit is
55:27that Mahomes played out of his mind in week two. It's like, >> I thought he was washed. Someone Someone told me he looked
55:32>> some some bald idiot told you that. I don't know who that is. Um, >> hey, listen. Yo, shout out to you.
55:39You're not a fence sitter. You tell it like it is. Um, which you know, you're not listening to one of these fantasy
55:45YouTubes where it's, well, you know, he could be on the decline or he could just be No. So, that's more valuable. I
55:54appreciate it. You're not always going to bat a thousand.
55:58>> No, no, I'm I'm 51%. You know, that's all that's all I aim for. Just be right more often than I'm wrong. All right.
56:06Uh, Jaylen Coker, I another one I don't we've talked about this so much. It's like, is the Bryce Young thing sustainable? Have they played just
56:14really bad defenses?
56:17Um, I would worry long term about this offensive line. I think it's not in a great spot. I think their schedule
56:24does get a little tougher if I'm not mistaken. So, yeah. Where where you at on Coker?
56:31>> Yeah. Uh something interesting is he is brutally ass mogging T McMillan who has had a negative ass in backto
56:40back weeks and Coker I don't know easy top 10 um he's playing out of his mind and to be fair we you know Ryan and I
56:50both kind of called it last week it was a perfect schematic match up for him.
56:54and it was a much tougher matchup for McMillan. But that's something interesting I want to keep in the back of my mind. But really, I just still
57:00don't trust Bryce Young being able to support one pass catcher, let alone two of them. Um, so I I still kind of feel like he's a a
57:12sell high, but I'd like to hear your thoughts.
57:15>> Yeah, I think he's probably a sell high as well. And I I think Ted eventually levels out and is fine. Um, again,
57:23separation is just one aspect of playing the position. It's also interesting that T, he is playing in the slot more. That
57:29was something we speculated.
57:32Um, that like I remember having Matt Harmon on the show in the summer and he really wanted to see T in the slot more.
57:38And I actually think that could be bad for T.
57:42It's a rare case where that's not a good thing because Bryce Young is 5 foot7.
57:48>> You know what I mean? like he can't see the middle of the field >> when you're tied to the line of
57:52scrimmage.
57:53>> So, you know, Coker moving around more, playing in the slot >> less. Although, he was was he in the slot like 50% of the time in week two.
58:02You know, if the guy's going to run a heavy diet of outbreakers, I think that works. But if he's going to kind of live
58:07in the middle of the field like T, that's what big frame receivers usually do, probably not great. So, uh but yeah,
58:13sell high and Jaylen Cooker. All right, let's move on. Well, I had a good uh T McMillan slot stat. Uh so the best slot
58:21yards per route run seasons by a power conference wide receiver since 2019 in college, one Jamar Chase, two CD Lamb, three Devont Smith, four Jaylen Wadd,
58:32five Jameson Williams, six Rasheed Rice, seven T McMillan. That's like a crazy how predictive that stat is. There's it's minimum 75 routes and power
58:42conference only. Those are the only qualifiers and every single guy on that list is a stud. So yeah, it's uh dude,
58:49he was good in the slot in co. He was great from the slot in college. So, you know, if Bryce Young maybe on his tippy
58:56toes can actually see him, uh he could have quite a bit of a success there.
59:00>> He had a 22% win rate from the slot in week two, that is uh that's definitely a good thing. All right, let's move to the
59:07next bucket. Let's talk about it. We got to get moving here, too. Um, start with Oh, sorry. The next bucket is it's over
59:16slash rip. These guys are dead. We're going to talk three tight ends. Coulson Lovelin, Harold Fannon Jr., and Kyle Pittz. Are these guys actually dead,
59:26Scott? Is it actually over?
59:28>> I I don't think so. Um, I think I think all three were bad picks at cost, and it's there's no getting around that. Um,
59:37but no, I think Coulson Lovelin's probably a buy low. Um, you know, still the route share is really good. Uh, and
59:44like I said, they dropped 60 points in week one. You're bullish on that. And then it was a brutal game against the
59:51maybe the toughest defense in the league. I better better days lie ahead.
59:55Harold Fannon, too. I I think Shadur, if Shadur comes back, would could be really good for him. He's someone who his ass
60:02is really good. Um, and I don't know, but it's also like the Browns. Like I do I really have a lot of faith in the
60:10Browns. No. And then Kyle Pittz, I just I I loathe. He He has one 100yard game over the last four years. He has like 15
60:19yards on the season. He never produces when Drake London's healthy.
60:24I think it's over. [laughter] >> Okay. Um, so >> fool me one. Shame on me. If only six
60:34seasons in a row Kyle Pittz, shame on me.
60:38>> So if you got an offer for Kyle Pittz, what are you looking to receive to trade him right now?
60:42>> You're not cutting him, right? You're It's not a It's not a Yeah.
60:46>> So what do you need back?
60:48>> I don't know. Just [clears throat] side.
60:51>> Yeah, pro. As gross as it sounds, probably.
60:54>> Well, you had Debo on a buy low.
60:56>> Yeah.
60:56>> What do you mean? How's that?
60:57>> He's cheap.
60:59>> He's cheaper than that. You can get away with cheaper than that.
61:01>> All right. Is there a better example then?
61:04>> Bro, I don't know. Use the front office trade tool. Okay.
61:08I'm not your I'm not your front office trade tool. That's That's why we >> That's what the people want you to be.
61:14>> You're putting me on the spot here. I don't >> I like that. I >> I can't answer those questions. That's
61:19why like these are questions I have as a fantasy player and the person I would ask is you.
61:26So, but yeah, definitely use the front office tool. It's it's a league winning tool. They're gonna not only help you identify who you should be trading for,
61:34but they're going to help you structure the deals so you don't lose out and you win trades.
61:38>> Yeah. So, you could see like Kyle Pittz is recently going for, you know, just traded straight up for Mark Andrews.
61:44Bro, I'd probably rather have Mark Andrews. Um, but yeah, use the trade builder tool, not not this tool that's being shown on screen. Uh, the trade
61:54builder to it will give you suggestions.
61:56It'll show you, you know, who, you know, you could potentially trade with who's weak at tight end but strong at one of your positions of need. Uh,
62:07and it tells you like actually how much this trade helps you >> uh improve your your odds of winning the championship. So, it's really cool,
62:14really valuable. Check it out.
62:18>> All right, let's uh let's move on to the next cluster of players. We have Rashi Rice, Travis Hn, and Marvin Harrison Jr.
62:28Harrison Jr., Hold on. That's a cut, right?
62:32>> I'm serious.
62:33>> Yeah. Yeah, >> we can just cut him, right? Especially, did you see um >> Yeah, >> Mike Laflur today talking about
62:40Harrison, >> bro.
62:42It he should have been in the it's over bucket.
62:45>> They asked him like, "Hey, you know, Marv's really struggling. looks disinterested in the offense. Is there anything you can do to get him involved
62:53in in like the short part of the field?
62:56And you know what Laflur's response was?
62:59I could do that, but I have Trey McBride, who's probably the best short area tight end in the league. I have
63:06Kendrick Bourne, >> who's really good in the Bro, he said Kendrick Bourne as a reason to not throw the ball to Marvin Harrison Jr. It's so
63:15over for him. It's ridiculous.
63:16>> So, >> he needs a change of scenery. H he needs more than that. Was Was he even really that good of a prospect? Brett,
63:23>> you've asked me this so many times and I come back with the same answer. Yes.
63:26Yes, he was.
63:27>> Yeah. So, >> he was freaking phenomenal, dude.
63:30>> Yeah. So, what I've heard from our our charters is uh they think it's a confidence issue because like Yeah. They
63:37they agree with you. He was a really good prospect. Um, and then like last year it really seemed like a mental
63:44thing, a confidence thing where he had a drop and it looked like he was crying and then he had another drop and he just
63:51like looked so dejected with the worst body language and then he scored a touchdown. It was like his only catch of
63:56the day, but he like fell to his knees and like pray like it meant so much. And like that that happened in multiple
64:04games. And then Brian and I were were watching a a press conference with Marvin Harrison Jr. and the vibes couldn't be any worse. He just
64:14seemed so defeated and dejected. Ryan said it was like it was like a like a high school kid who's like, "Yeah, I
64:22play football because my dad, you know, really wants me to play football, but my real my real love is musical theater. I
64:29I wish I could I could do the play this year, but my dad really wants me to play football." Bro, I And I don't think
64:36that's reading too much. Dude, Sam Monson's saying the same thing a lot of people are saying. And so like to your
64:41point, yeah, if he if he was really good as a prospect and it's over now, you know, a change of scenery couldn't hurt.
64:49Certainly a change of scenery for your fantasy roster because what's the upside when Trey McBride and Kendrick Bourne and Michael Wilson are ahead of him on a
64:57shitty offense anyway? But yeah, the three players we picked, you know, I'm kind of leaning into um Take Lock here. These are all, you know,
65:07I kind of said this heading into the year. Rasheed Rice, one of the worst picks he can make. Travis Achain, one of
65:12the worst picks he can make. Marvin Harrison, one of the worst picks he can make. And there's just a lot of
65:17confirmation bias now. Rasheed Rice negative ass in back-to-back games. He has seven first read targets, which is less than Kenneth Walker. It's half as
65:28much as Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy.
65:31Uh, dude, Travis Achain, here's a crazy stat for you. Uh he's third among the running backs on the team in carries per
65:39game and he's second among the running backs on the team in targets per game.
65:43What is that worth? Nothing. That's a awful contract. So, um >> not to mention they just lost their starting left tackle for the season. One
65:52of the better left tackles in the league and that's >> that situation is uh a downward spiral for him.
65:59>> Yeah.
66:00>> All right. Can we move on?
66:02>> Yeah.
66:03>> All right. Before we do though, Scott, we got to hear from you about fantasy points.
66:07>> If you like fantasy football, I've got great news. Last year, our projections had the highest correlation to DraftKings fantasy points in the entire
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66:26level of access of NFL teams at literally 1,000th the price. Oh, >> that's probably a stupid business
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66:47We're just a bunch of obsessive sickos who only care about football and being the best, most helpful football site on Earth. If that seems up your alley, go
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67:07All right, let's talk about it. This is another bucket here. I don't even know what this bucket's for. You're going to
67:13have to fill me in on the fly here, but we're going to go Devon Achain, Amecha Eggbuka, and Ashton Genty. Notice I
67:19pronounced all three of those names correctly, Scott. Just leading the way by example for you.
67:24>> Yeah, Devon Etienne. uh is uh uh [clears throat] Devi Devon Achan is the uh first running back in fantasy points data history to play on at least
67:3580% of his team snaps and average under 17 fantasy points per game. He's currently averaging just 11.5 fantasy points per game. And so the question is,
67:47is this an outlier? Is this, hey, he's going to regress to the meme because this utilization is really good, bro. He
67:53also has a 22% target share. Like 97 times out of 100, 83% snap share, 22% target share, you average 24 fantasy
68:05points per game. And then if you factor in a player as skilled and as talented as Devon Han, uh yeah, maybe it's 27
68:12fantasy points per game. The problem is I think I think the Dolphins are running a Ponzi scheme. I think they're they're
68:20really trying to just draft Arch Manning at all costs. They don't care how embarrassing this looks.
68:26>> Arch Manning is not QB1 next year.
68:28>> Who is it?
68:29>> Not Arch Manning.
68:31>> Oh, Arch Manning, the Marvin Harrison Jr. of uh >> Exactly. Thank you.
68:36>> quarterbacks apparently. Nepatism. Uh >> yeah. So, it's just this this looks so bad and like I would
68:46fire Bobby Slowick ASAP. Um Kevin Patulo would probably be the interim OC, which isn't great either, but bro, it's so on
68:55the defense, dude, it's so embarrassing.
68:57They're playing base defense at the league's highest rate. They're pressuring the quarterback the league's lowest rate, ranked dead last in EPA per
69:04drop back despite heaviest rate of base personnel. Aren't they blitzing the top?
69:09That's what I was going to say. That's >> And then on offense, the they're the slowest offense by situation neutral pace of play despite trailing 85% of the
69:17time. They Malik Willis has two design runs. It's like it's like how can we ensure we draft first overall? It's like
69:27really that bad and it's that embarrassing. Um, and so it's like, yeah, could this really just be an impossible to succeed setup even with an 83% snap
69:41share, a 22% target share? I don't know.
69:45I don't know. And so I'm asking the question and because I feel like Vibes are in the dirt.
69:52>> Yeah, Vi I mean Vibes are in the dirt. I think just because the workload and opportunity, he has to be considered a
69:59buy low >> and he >> Yeah.
70:02>> Right. like has to be like the the whoever has him in your league is going to be dejected.
70:07>> John Hansen is saying no. He's it's he's in the it's over bucket. Ryan Heath is saying it's over.
70:12>> I mean, and it might be, but look ahead at the schedule, too. You got the Chiefs, the Vikings, the Bengals, the
70:19Jets, the Patriots. Like, it doesn't get easier for him until he plays Detroit in week nine. and their run defense is
70:25actually well I'm not even going to say that they were terrible against the Bills. So, um yeah, I mean it could be
70:32flatout over, but I'm just more often than not if I can get a running back with this workload on the cheap I'm
70:38signing up for that and maybe you we get some explosive plays. That's the other thing. We haven't seen any explosive plays yet from him. Those might be
70:45coming just because he's that talented.
70:48>> Yeah.
70:48>> All right, Eggbuka, break it down.
70:52Um, yeah. So, it looks like he's back to where he was last year. He right now he ranks dead last in catchable air yardage
71:01market share. So, he's seeing a lot of good volume and a lot of air yards, but none of it and he's getting open. He's
71:07he's 17th in ass right now. Um, but it just looks like he's exactly where he was last year. And like I blame that on
71:15Baker Mayfield being hurt, him being hurt, and it's like, no. Does Baker just kind of inexplicably suck now? So, so you tell me.
71:24>> Yeah, Baker's had a really rough two games. No doubt about it. Turnovers have been a huge issue. Um, I think it's too
71:32early to to rule on whether Zack Robinson's been good or not, just simply because Baker's been so bad. So, we got
71:38to give this time. Probably a buy low, though. Five targets for 16 yards for a receiver is not great, but um I think he
71:46looks relatively decent on tape. So, oh, also they're not playing him at the X anymore. They they've actually fulfilled that promise.
71:54>> Nice.
71:55>> So, yeah.
71:57Um, all right, Ashton Genty.
72:00>> Uh, well, the the good is like his volume is amazing. It's legitimately amazing. 77% snap share, uh, 22 carries
72:09per game, uh, 6.5 targets per game, 22% target share. And so it's like, yeah, it's like almost impossible to fail with
72:20usage and utilization that good. Uh, but on the flip side, his coach keeps saying he wants the RB2 more involved. He went
72:29off against Miami, but it's Miami. And then last week, he averaged 2.2 yards per carry and three drops. Three drops.
72:37This is a guy who, you know, I think the worst EPA of any running back since rookie season, Trent Richardson last
72:44year. And so it's just, yeah, it's like, hey, is Kubak gonna [clears throat] maximize this guy who's in a top five
72:52role um and he's gonna smash or is it like actual, you know, Trent Richardson uh levels of uh concern?
73:02>> That's a question for you to answer.
73:03>> Yeah, I'm not concerned about this at all. I think he looks great. The burst is awesome. Obviously, the drops suck.
73:08That's that's a fluke though >> in my opinion. as long as he doesn't get the yips. And then Kubak can say till
73:14he's blew in the face he wants to get Mike Washington involved, but that doesn't match up with the fact that Genti is averaging 27 touches a game
73:21through two weeks coming off of an injury.
73:23>> Yeah.
73:24>> At that. So like, you know, if you wanted to ever protect Genty and get Washington involved, the time was to do
73:30it was when my man was dealing with a high ankle sprain, so or a low ankle sprain, whatever it was.
73:35>> Yeah. I mean, to be fair, he's also a rookie. you know, these guys typically get ramped up.
73:40>> Well, 27 touches a game off of an injury doesn't, you know, that I'm pretty pretty bullish on him moving forward.
73:47So, I I I think he's definitely a buy or at least at worst a hold.
73:52>> Yeah.
73:52>> Uh, last two we got for you. Chuba Hubard, Joe Burrow.
73:57Let's talk about it. I already know where you're going with Burrow. We already kind of hit it at the top, right, with the whole concept of
74:04>> maybe he doesn't need to be the gun.
74:06Patrick Mahomes career arc >> lean on Yeah, exactly.
74:10>> Lean on the run game. Yeah. Um I think that those are very actionable questions we should be thinking about over the
74:16next couple weeks for sure. Chuba Hubard, man.
74:21I don't know how you feel about this one because Jonathan Brooks is one of your Exodas and Chupa's playing pretty good
74:26ball.
74:26>> Yeah. And I think that was awful, you know, because Jonathan Brooks picked up that that groin injury in training camp
74:32and I was like, should I should should I pivot off of Jonathan Brooks? Like, and I really should have like that was that
74:39was bad process by me. This guy can't stay healthy and that was really, you know, it looked like his time to shine.
74:45And then week one, it looked like he was dealing with a groin injury. Week two, he he reagravated it. Um, and the reason
74:53we were so bullish is because this Dave Canalis, Bellcow, RB1 role is so attractive. And now Chuba Hubard's in it. And you know, AJ Dylan just an early
75:04down workhorse. He's not a very good one. He played like four snaps last week. So I I Chuba Hubard, I think, is
75:13either a tremendous buy high. He looks good, by the way. He looked awful last year, but I guess he was playing through
75:19an injury. Um, but he looks awesome. Or do we still have to worry about, you know, Brooks coming back at some point,
75:26forcing a committee? Um, what do you think?
75:32>> I I think we're probably safe. Although, the run volume really hasn't been there, right? Just 10 carries and 12 carries.
75:39That's not ideal. But I will like the biggest knock on him last year was that he looked like he had no gas whatsoever.
75:46No burst. He's got four explosive plays already this year, which >> they had zero last year, >> right? So, that's that's definitely
75:52something to keep an eye on. And with the Saints kind of I I feel like the Saints might be in a little bit of a
75:57tail spin with their left tackle situation now. I I'm like the Panthers could just win this division. The Falcons stink. Um the Buccaneers are
76:06spiraling with Baker Mayfield not playing well. Like I don't know. I I might be in on Chuba now and I was
76:12completely out on him two weeks ago.
76:14>> Yeah. So, um, all right, that's it for players to talk about today. Do we want to get to some questions? We did promise we'd
76:21answer some. It's been, this has been a long episode, but we can probably cut some of the intro out.
76:26>> No, I spent so much time pulling up those dog stats.
76:32>> You're so ridiculous.
76:33>> Hey, I have uh I have some good Malik Willis scope for you. You want to hear hear it?
76:37>> I have some good Malik Willis scope, too. Go ahead.
76:40He had more passing yards and fewer interceptions against the Raiders than Justin Herbert. He had more passing yards, passing touchdowns, and fewer
76:49interceptions against the 49ers than Matthew Stafford.
76:53>> That's great. Malik Willis cope. You know what else is?
76:56>> What?
76:57>> He's number one in the NFL in hero throw rate.
77:00>> Oh [laughter] man, that's crazy.
77:02>> Small sample, two weeks, not a lot of pass.
77:04>> Yeah. And he has the worst pressure to sack ratio since his pressure to sack ratio in 201. Glad you brought that. I
77:10wanted to talk about this. You know what it is?
77:12>> What >> he's pressing?
77:15I I saw you tweeted this last night.
77:17>> So, I went and I I watched every one of Malik's drop backs again, probably for the 10th time each.
77:22>> And just I feel like he's so determined to prove he's a pocket passer who can win from the pocket that he's he's
77:30instinctually thrown out his best attribute, which is his mobility. And you know what's funny is like I felt like Lamar used to do
77:38this early in his career too >> where it was like he's so hellbent on I'm going to throw from the pocket. I'm
77:43going to be a pocket guy. I'm not going to scramble. And then I that's 100% what it is. He's just literally trying to
77:50play in structure too long. It's like the opposite criticism I have of every other quarterback. Right.
77:54>> That's so funny. Yeah.
77:55>> Which is like, bro, I if it's not there, I just need you to go win with your legs, you know?
78:00>> Yeah. Um, and he he's just holding the ball too long trying to make something happen. And like, bro, just get on your
78:05horse and freaking go. And Bobby Slowick scheduled the man some design runs for the love of God.
78:10>> Please, please.
78:13>> Number Brett, I'm going to call him.
78:15>> I really think that's what it is. I think he's just pressing a little bit and hopefully he'll settle down. He
78:19looks so calm, cool, and collected in the preseason. I know it's preseason, though. So, we just need that guy back and we'll
78:25>> We just need him up against backups. How about that?
78:28>> Yeah, exactly. when and the Raiders were that opportunity and we didn't we didn't get anything. So, >> yeah.
78:33>> Uh but should we should we take a few questions?
78:36>> Uh I'm I'm running out of steam here, but but sure we could do maybe your two best questions.
78:41>> Two best qu Okay.
78:44>> Gosh, now now you're putting me on the spot. Um should I get a specific trade question in?
78:52>> Oh, here here's a great question.
78:53>> I think people hate those. But but go on.
78:55>> Well, why did we get 40 of them submitted to us then? because people only care about their teams, but like
79:00the listeners don't care about other people's teams, you know? Well, >> you got to look at it as an opportunity to open up a broader discussion about
79:08the players being asked about. But anyways, here's a great question from BG Little Neck. It's for me specifically.
79:14Says, "Hey Brett, do you love Mishuga?
79:17>> If so, what is your top three to five songs from them?" Um, I do like Mishuga, but only in specific environments, and
79:24that's when I'm lifting. It's if it's a heavy deadlift day, Mishuga is 100% in the ears. We're going he we're going
79:31heavy. Um I love the the galloping guitar riff technique that they implement. They kind of, you know, made that super popular 20 years ago. My
79:39three to five favorite songs, I'd say I Am Colossus, great song. Bleed, Monstrosity, more recent one, Broken Cog, I think
79:49that was a couple years old, but they've got bangers from 1995 all the way to now. So definitely a Mishuka fan.
79:57Ah, I forced you into a question section just so I could answer that.
80:01>> Yeah, we can cut that one out. Don't worry.
80:03>> No, no, we are not cutting that out. We have lots of metal listeners as in our audience. We're going to make them happy
80:08with that. All right, here's a good question. Um, we did we had multiple comments on our Waverwire video that says, "Hey, Scott, Kyler was an S tier
80:17QB pick in that episode. Now he's a Ctier waiver pickup. Has one concussion nerfed his rushing upside that much? And that wasn't the We got like that a
80:28version of that question 10 times over.
80:30What is the disconnect between you saying he was an S tier KB pick and now he's a Ctier waiverwire pickup?
80:35>> It was It's Tyler Shuck existing and looking like rich man's Bo Knicks, poor man's Josh Allen. And so relative to
80:44>> rich man's Justin Herbert hides.
80:47>> Sure. Sure. And so it's just it's just relative to that. But if you're in an FFPC, yeah, Kyler is a great pickup.
80:56>> Okay, cool. Um, question for tomorrow's episode. I didn't write down the the user. I apologize in advance. How do you
81:04analysts reflect on two weeks of data as we go back and look at our pre-draft process?
81:10How do we correct our mistakes or cut our losses and adapt our lineups rankings accordingly?
81:17>> Uh, what was the question?
81:19>> Good lord. All right.
81:22We might got to we maybe got to get out of here, but um how basically how do you take two weeks of data and reflect on
81:29your process, Scott? Like are you willing to start taking L's now or or victory lab now?
81:34>> I answered this already. I answered this already. Adam Haret has this article.
81:38It's great. This long study he found that current season production doesn't matter as much as ADP heading into the
81:48season until about week five. Uh so it's important not to overreact to just raw results. What you do is you look at
81:54utilization. You look at some things that hey does this confirm a prior? Then it gives you more confidence to lean into it. If it runs counter to it then
82:03it's maybe you're in a holding pattern.
82:05You need a little bit more data. Uh and again like I said you know logic and reason tends to win out at the end of
82:11the day. It might just take some time.
82:14Um and so yeah it's it's a blend of art and science. um more wisdom than knowledge and luckily I've been in this
82:22game a long time. Uh so I'm really careful to underreact rather than overreact especially this early in the season.
82:30>> Beautifully put. Thank you for that. We got to get Scott some sleep and some caffeine so we can make it through the
82:35week. So that's going to do it for us today. We'll be back tomorrow with the start of our waiver or sort of the start
82:41sit series. We're doing two episodes. We are going to go game byame this week.
82:45That is a new wrinkle to the weekly format. We're going game by game. Half the games will be on Thursday, half the
82:51games will be on Friday. Thank you so much for sticking with us everybody.
82:55Remember to turn subscription or subscribe on the YouTube channel. Click notifications. Do not miss a single video. We are helping you win fantasy
83:02leagues every [music] single day. That's going to do it for us. We are out.

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