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Top 12 Bold Fantasy Football Predictions (2026) with John Hansen!

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 3 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 10, 2026
Published
Fri, July 10, 2026
85
Player insights
40
Players mentioned
Topics
Brock BowersBrock PurdyKyler MurrayTerry McLaurinBaker MayfieldMichael PittmanChuba HubbardDK MetcalfJ.J. McCarthyJayden DanielsCaleb WilliamsJordan LoveJosh AllenJustin Herbert
Player analysis

Player insights

85

Antonio Williams

PositiveRole0:24

Antonio Williams is viewed as a minor option later in drafts but is not expected to significantly challenge McLaurin for targets on Washington.

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Baker Mayfield

PositiveProjection0:04

Mayfield played hurt last year, suggesting he could see improved performance in 2026 if fully healthy, contributing to expected passing yard increases.

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PositiveInjury0:04

Baker Mayfield was playing hurt last year, which is being cited as context for why passing attacks may improve this season.

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PositiveProjection0:18

Baker Mayfield is mentioned as having low-end quarterback one upside and can be considered as a late-round quarterback option with potential.

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PositiveBreakout0:18

Baker Mayfield is among 22 quarterbacks with low-end QB1 upside this year, representing exceptional depth at the position.

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Brian O'Neill

PositiveDepth Chart0:30

Brian O'Neill at right tackle is viewed favorably despite being in a contract impact situation.

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Brock Bowers

PositiveProjection0:13

Bowers is projected to finish as TE1 and outscore the TE2 by 3-5 points per game, with a 2022 Kelce or 2025 McBride-like dominant season.

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PositiveProjection0:13

Bowers is projected to outscore the tight end position by 3-5 points per game this season due to improved quarterback play and better play-calling from Clint Kubiak.

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PositiveRole0:14

Bowers is not a traditional tight end but a wide receiver playing at the tight end position, with elite receiving ability and versatility.

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PositiveRole0:14

Bowers is not a traditional tight end but rather a wide receiver that can be played at the tight end position, giving him unique positional flexibility.

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PositiveProjection0:14

Bowers' fantasy point ceiling is historically high, with only Rob Gronkowski having scored more fantasy points at the tight end position.

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PositiveProjection0:14

Only Rob Gronkowski has scored more fantasy points per game in his first two seasons than Bowers, making him historically elite among tight ends in their first two years.

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PositiveBreakout0:14

Bowers has transcendent upside this season and the analyst is absolutely drafting him as much as possible in the second round.

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PositiveUsage0:17

Bowers is expected to see 5-7 catches every single week this season, indicating consistent high-volume usage.

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PositiveValue0:17

Bowers is a steal in round three and even at the end of the second round, representing strong value for a tight end drafted that early.

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Brock Purdy

PositiveProjection0:05

Brock Purdy is cited as part of a strong quarterback position landscape heading into the season.

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PositiveRole0:39

Brock Purdy has a career 6% touchdown rate and nearly nine yards per pass attempt, with a 7% touchdown rate in three out of four seasons, demonstrating elite efficiency under Kyle Shanahan.

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PositiveProjection0:39

Analyst projects Brock Purdy to finish as a top five quarterback in fantasy and throw a career-high in touchdowns, pushing into the high 30s compared to his previous career-high of 31.

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PositiveValue0:39

Brock Purdy is QB5 in fantasy points per game over the last three years, outscoring Joe Burrow by one-tenth of a point, yet is being drafted at QB12-QB13 ADP despite consistently finishing in the top eight.

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PositiveProjection0:40

Brock Purdy's upside projection is 43 total touchdowns (37.5 passing, 5.5 rushing) if the 49ers have an ideal season, based on his 17-game pace from nine games played last year.

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PositiveValue0:44

Brock Purdy finished top five in fantasy points per game and is going about a round or two behind Dak Prescott in ADP, which the analyst believes is a mistake.

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Bryce Young

NegativeProjection0:47

Bryce Young is averaging only 180 yards per game passing in his entire career, and the analyst notes this is the one big thing that could hold Chuba Hubbard back, as Young needs to take a big step forward.

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C.J. Stroud

NegativeProjection0:28

CJ Stroud is expected to struggle in 2026 as Arizona is in a rough spot.

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Caleb Douglas

PositiveSleeper0:21

Caleb Douglas is liked as a deep sleeper option in Miami's receiving corps.

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Caleb Williams

PositiveProjection0:03

Williams is positioned for improvement in year two with Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator, part of a broader trend of QB play caller upgrades.

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PositiveRole0:05

Caleb Williams is in a really good environment and is part of the strong quarterback landscape this season.

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Chris Bell

PositiveSleeper0:21

Chris Bell is liked as a last-round best ball pick with potential upside as a stacking partner for Malik Willis.

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Christian Darrisaw

PositiveProjection0:30

Christian Darrisaw is the best left tackle the Vikings have had in decades and could be a top-three left tackle if healthy.

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Christian Kirk

PositiveRole0:43

Christian Kirk will likely see reduced snap share (40-50%) compared to previous years and serve as a chain mover, but may need to play more early in the season with KD out, and the analyst likes having him in the offense because he makes plays.

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Chuba Hubbard

PositiveBreakout0:44

Chuba Hubbard is a bold pick to finish as an RB2 in round seven; his past breakout seasons have been derailed by injuries (calf strain, admitted coming back too quick), but a clean bill of health should unlock his potential with 225+ touches expected.

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PositiveRole0:46

Hubbard will be the pass-pro option early in the season over Jonathan Brooks, who is coming off two ACLs, and the analyst doesn't expect Brooks to get 200+ carries early despite the Panthers' running backs combining for 400+ carries and 90+ targets last year.

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PositiveProjection0:46

Hubbard is just one season removed from an RB15 finish with 293 touches and 11 touchdowns, and was top 10 in EPA per attempt and RB7 in yards after contact per carry in 2024.

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Colston Loveland

PositiveRole0:18

Loveland has more target competition than Warren, which is cited as a reason why Warren could be ranked above him despite Loveland being a solid option.

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Darren Waller

PositiveRole0:20

When Darren Waller went down last year, Malik Willis threw it to Gregory Dosich, demonstrating Dosich's role as a big-bodied receiver in the middle of the field.

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DK Metcalf

NegativeProjection0:09

DK Metcalf had poor efficiency in 2025 with 1.46 yards per route run (43rd out of 76 WRs with 50+ targets), though he was 16th best against zone coverage at 2.40 yards per route run.

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NegativeProjection0:09

Metcalf's 1.46 yards per route run ranked only 43rd out of 76 WRs with 50+ targets in 2025, and he's projected to struggle with Aaron Rodgers' limited deep-throw ability (59th in ADoT, 46th in deep throw percentage).

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NegativeBust0:12

Metcalf has never paid off his ADP in any year and is a boom-bust player better suited for best ball than season leagues, with inconsistent weekly production.

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Donovan Jackson

PositiveDepth Chart0:31

Donovan Jackson is viewed as very good as part of the Vikings' offensive line.

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George Kittle

PositiveInjury0:41

George Kittle is ahead of schedule in his Achilles recovery thanks to cutting-edge surgery, with the same doctor who treated Jason Tatum, and is expected to be fully healthy by November-December when fantasy football money is made.

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J.J. McCarthy

NegativeRole0:35

J.J. McCarthy suffered an injury and has not played since, with Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell appearing to distance himself from McCarthy by 2026 despite being evasive in his praise during training camp and preseason in 2024.

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NegativeRole0:36

The Vikings offense put a lot of pressure on J.J. McCarthy, and the team desperately needed a better run game to help even out the offense and take some pressure off the quarterback.

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NegativeProjection0:37

J.J. McCarthy was third from last in catchable throw rate at 69% last year, with only Michael Pennix and Shadur Sanders posting lower rates, indicating significant accuracy and decision-making issues.

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Jalen Nailor

PositiveRole0:31

Jalen Nailor is described as a tremendous third receiver in the Vikings' top-tier receiving trio.

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Jalen Tolbert

PositiveRole0:21

Jaylen Tolbert is fine as a flanker in Miami's receiving corps but is not a primary target option.

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Jayden Daniels

NegativeInjury0:26

Jaden Daniels' injury concerns are legitimate; he missed twice as many games last year as in his previous six seasons combined, making him a risky investment despite his talent.

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PositiveProjection0:28

Jaylen Daniels was sixth in catchable throw rate in his rookie season and bottom five in turnover worthy throw rate, making good decisions and throwing catchable passes despite last year's injury struggles.

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PositiveProjection0:28

Jaden Daniels was sixth in catchable throw rate in his rookie season (two years ago), behind only Joe Burrow, Tua, Baker Mayfield, and Jared Goff, and was bottom five in turnover-worthy throw rate, indicating strong decision-making.

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Jordan Love

PositiveInjury0:04

Jordan Love missed time last year, cited as context for potential improvement in passing attacks this season.

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PositiveInjury0:04

Love missed time last year but is expected to be available heading into 2026, positioning him to contribute to the expected increase in passing yards league-wide.

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Jordan Mason

PositiveUsage0:31

Jordan Mason is expected to be a bigger factor in the Vikings' running back room than people think.

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Josh Allen

PositiveProjection0:18

Josh Allen was essentially the only quarterback worth drafting early last year, as other early-drafted quarterbacks either got injured or underperformed their ADP.

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PositiveProjection0:18

Josh Allen was the only quarterback who lived up to expectations last year; if you didn't draft him early, everybody else either got hurt or didn't live up to their ADP.

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Justin Herbert

PositiveProjection0:03

Herbert is expected to see a massive play caller boost with Mike McDaniel, positioning him for improved performance in 2026.

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PositiveProjection0:07

Justin Herbert is part of the improving quarterback landscape and is expected to take another step this season.

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Justin Jefferson

PositiveProjection0:31

Justin Jefferson is part of one of the top three receiving trios in the league alongside Addison and Nailor.

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Kyler Murray

PositiveProjection0:05

Kyler Murray is expected to bounce back this season.

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PositiveProjection0:29

Kyler Murray will be a QB1 in 2026 due to a change of scenery with the Vikings, improved salary cap situation, and his historical consistency as a top-12 quarterback in four straight seasons prior to last year.

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PositiveRole0:32

Kyler Murray is amazing at extending plays and scramble drills, with all of his rate stats being better than his overall performance suggests.

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PositiveRole0:33

Kyler Murray has finished as a top 12 quarterback in four straight seasons prior to last year, consistently finishing around QB8 every single year with reliable fantasy production.

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PositiveProjection0:33

Kyler Murray is projected as QB17-QB18 for the upcoming season, with the analyst expressing confidence that he will hold this job all year unless he gets injured or is legitimately terrible.

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PositiveProjection0:38

John Hansen projects Kyler Murray to finish as a top 12 quarterback in fantasy, assuming he stays healthy and doesn't play significantly worse than last year.

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Malik Washington

NegativeRole0:21

Malik Washington is described as stinking and is not a viable fantasy option; the Miami receiving core is essentially a field stretcher with Atwell.

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PositiveRole0:23

Malik Washington has failed to step up as a replacement target after the Tyreek Hill trade, with the team trying unsuccessfully to develop him for two years.

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Malik Willis

PositiveProjection0:18

Malik Willis is among 22 quarterbacks with low-end QB1 upside this year and has made clear progress as a passer with a 94.3% catchable throw rate last year.

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PositiveProjection0:18

Malik Willis is mentioned as having low-end quarterback one upside and can be considered as a late-round quarterback option with potential.

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Marcus Mariota

PositiveProjection0:27

Marcus Mariota played well last year as a backup and deserves consideration for another chance as a starter, providing a strong floor for Washington's offense if Jaden Daniels goes down.

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NegativeProjection0:28

Marcus Mariota is not anything special, though he provides a floor for the Browns compared to teams without backup quarterback depth.

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Michael Pittman

PositiveValue0:09

Pitman is significantly undervalued at WR44-45 ADP and should be going very close to or ahead of DK Metcalf based on target share projections and fit with Aaron Rodgers' aging arm.

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PositiveRole0:10

With 40% of targets gone from the Colts, Pitman—who saw about 90% of his targets in the short to intermediate area—is expected to be their true volume receiver.

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PositiveProjection0:11

Pitman is projected to outscore DK Metcalf by a few points per game and fits the current Colts offense and Rodgers' playing style better than Metcalf.

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PositiveProjection0:12

Pitman is projected to earn more targets than Amika Abuka, George Pickens, Roma Donavy, and T. Higgins this season, continuing his history as a consistent target earner.

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Mike Evans

PositiveRole0:39

Mike Evans is described as a touchdown machine in the context of Brock Purdy's 49ers offense.

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Patrick Mahomes

PositiveInjury0:04

Mahomes is coming back fully healthy and should be ready for week one, removing injury concerns heading into the 2026 season.

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Ricky Pearsall

PositiveBreakout0:39

Ricky Pearsall has a chance to really break out in year three of his career with the 49ers.

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Sam Darnold

PositiveProjection0:32

Sam Darnold's career 3.5% passing touchdown rate and 6.5 YPA are inferior to Kyler Murray's rate stats, which have been better throughout his entire career.

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T.J. Hockenson

PositiveProjection0:31

T.J. Hockenson has been a buzzkill but is still capable at the very least for the Vikings.

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Terry McLaurin

PositiveProjection0:24

Author projects Terry McLaurin to beat his ADP (end of 4th/early 5th round), have a career year, and finish as a top 12 wide receiver in fantasy points per game, with potential to reach 120-140 targets given the lack of target competition on Washington.

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PositiveValue0:24

McLaurin is undervalued at his current ADP in the end of 4th/early 5th round and represents strong value given his historical production (five straight years of 1,000+ yards and 77+ receptions) and improved situation.

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PositiveRole0:24

McLaurin will be the clear lead target on Washington with minimal competition from Trayon Burks, Antonio Williams, or Chico Conquo, and will move around the formation more under new offensive coordinator David Blau rather than being static at the X position.

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NegativeProjection0:25

Author's only concern with McLaurin is his age—he'll be 31 this season—which could impact his ability to capitalize on the improved situation.

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PositiveMatchup0:26

McLaurin benefits from one of the best backup quarterback situations in the league with Marcus Mariota, who played well last year and clicked with McLaurin when Jaden Daniels was injured.

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PositiveProjection0:29

The analyst is all in on Terry McLaurin for 2026, expressing strong confidence in his outlook.

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Trevor Lawrence

PositiveProjection0:03

Lawrence is in an interesting spot in year two with Liam Cohen as offensive coordinator, expected to benefit from continuity and scheme familiarity.

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PositiveProjection0:07

Trevor Lawrence has taken time to develop but is expected to take another step this season as part of the improving quarterback landscape.

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Trey McBride

PositiveValue0:17

McBride is getting cheaper and is a pretty decent pick in the middle of the third round where he's trending down, though he's a significant tier below Bowers in projection.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

593
0:11Fantasy Football Daily is back. Welcome in. On this Thursday, we have an awesome episode for you. Today, I've enlisted my
0:20guy John Hansen, the guru, given 12 bold predictions. John, I don't think there's anybody in in the industry that has a
0:27higher hit rate on their bold calls than you do. I've been doing this for a long time, as of you, but I've been working
0:33with you for at least 10 years now, I think, at this point. Your bold calls typically typically work out extremely well. Mark says he loves the bold calls.
0:40No mild [ __ ] Keep them spicy. We're going to keep them spicy here. Uh it's it's good to be back with you guys.
0:46What's up, chat? Is uh good Thursday morning, John? We got 12 bold calls.
0:50We're going to go six each. Uh, it's going to be this is going to be a great show. You guys are going to learn a lot
0:55and uh hopefully we do keep it spicy.
0:58>> Yeah, I tried to pop out some names that I haven't been talking about a ton here, but let's be honest here. We're we're
1:05closing in on the opening of training camp. We're tightening everything up.
1:08We're We got our positions. We got our guys. But yeah, I do have a couple of players that, you know, also when you're
1:16doing bowl, like you got to be careful.
1:17Like you you gotta you don't want to force it. You know what I mean? And you got to let it come to you that, you
1:23know, like there's a tight end here that I think it's a slam dunk that we're going to get to. I'm going to get to.
1:30It's a slam dunk, but his ADP right now is is infinity. Like, uh, he's he's barely being drafted. So, it's going to
1:39come across as bold. Uh, cuz I think this guy's going to put up top 15 numbers. That's an example of like I'm
1:44not forcing it. I'm like, this is I'm looking at my rankings compared to the markets and I'm like way over the
1:50markets. So, I guess it is a bold prediction, but ready to rock and roll.
1:54>> Yeah, it is. It's a equal parts of feeling with your chest and then also being like, "Okay, this is this is
1:58actually a little scary." Just a little scary. You got to have that fear, a little fear factor in there as well. Uh
2:04John, you just released your article gurus, guys. You're going to have your draft plan and cheat sheets ready here in a couple weeks. And if you haven't
2:11already, subscribe to Fantasy Points.
2:14Use promo code fantasy. That's just one word fantasy. It'll get you 10 bucks off. You can get John's articles, cheat sheets, and the rest of our site for
2:24>> cheat sheets will be up within days, by the way. I'm I've been working all all week on them. And uh yeah, we'll we'll
2:30be up there maybe even What's today?
2:32Thursday. Maybe even Friday.
2:34>> All right. John's going to pull an allnighter tonight. I'm putting that on WAX. He's pulling he's [laughter] pulling an all nighter tonight to get
2:39him up. I'm just joking. Uh John's cheat sheets are always gold. Always interesting to see where John is uh massively different from the market. And
2:47that's what we're going to get into today is just some bold calls. I'm going to get us started here, John. And this
2:52one, it's it's kind of bold, but kind of not. We'll kind of get increasingly bolder. I in general, I just think
2:58passing rebounds this season. You look at the last couple of years, we've just seen a decline in passing yards per game. This past year, it bottomed out at
3:07209.7 passing yards per game. Is the fewest passing yards per game last season uh we've had since 2006.
3:14Um, I I just think there was a a bunch of factors that played into this last year. We had a number of injuries
3:20between Lamar Jackson, a bunch of high-end players, Jaden Daniels missing time, getting hurt. It's also just a, you know, the current NFL meta. Teams
3:28are playing slower. They're running the ball more. I think we're going to see some answers this year. We're in the year three of this kind of new changing
3:36guard. And I'm going to I'm going to keep kind of this theme rolling throughout the show. You'll notice a few of my bold calls kind of play into this,
3:42but I just think we have a number of like really like interesting great spots like Justin Herbert getting a massive play caller boost in and Mike McDaniel.
3:52Trevor Lawrence in year two with Liam Cohen. Caleb uh Caleb Williams in year two with Ben Johnson.
3:59>> Patrick Mahomes coming back fully healthy should be ready for week one.
4:03There's just a lot of quarterbacks. And then we've got some interesting guys.
4:05John, I know you you're high on Tyler Shuck as am I. I'm very high on Kell Moore as a play caller. [snorts] We only
4:11had last year, John, we only had six passers broach 4,000 yards. I think we have at least eight or nine this season.
4:18Uh number of guys like Baker Mayfield were playing hurt last year as well.
4:22Jordan Love missed time. I'm I'm in on some passing attacks this season. And I think the main thing that this applies
4:29for this season for fantasy John in my opinion is just like I think we're going to see some receivers in that second to
4:34fifth, sixth round pocket, that four, five round range. After the first round, they're going to be some home run picks in that pocket.
4:42>> To your point, everything is cyclical in the NFL. Now, I will say I I I asked Leenian Thomasson this on the podcast,
4:49and if you haven't seen that or heard that yet, uh, go check that out, the Fantasy Points podcast, about this cyclical nature and about defenses
4:58getting answers for, you know, what's gone on the last couple of years or offenses getting answers to the defense.
5:06um he he didn't seem totally convinced that there would be answers uh by the offense that they find to get the
5:15passing production uh clicked up a little bit, but uh to your point, I I do think that the quarterback position looks very strong. You know, I've been
5:26complaining about the lack of quality play at quarterback and still prevalent in the league, but you know, wi with guys like Drake May uh coming on, you
5:35know, even a guy like Shuck in a really good environment, you know, Caleb in a really good environment as you mentioned
5:41along with Stalwartz, you know, like Brock Pury. Then you have a guy like Kyler Murray, uh, who's going to bounce back. So, the position itself looks
5:50strong. But the other thing, too, is, you know, I've been doing this forever.
5:55it. I always notice things, you know, when I'm like ranking running backs or wide receivers. There have never been more capable, skilled players available
6:05to these quarterbacks and these offenses than there are now. I mean, every team, not every, but most teams pretty loaded.
6:12So, I I could absolutely see that happening. I I'm not I'm [snorts] not like betting money on it that we get
6:18scorings up and all that, but it it it has been pretty boring. And you know, e even from a business perspective, if
6:27you're the NFL, like you take a s step back, you're like, "Yeah, this our game kind of sucked last year." Uh things
6:34have to change. And I think um I think you're on the right track with it at the end of the day. I I things are very
6:40cyclical, which by the way is one of the reasons why I've never been a zero running back guy because oh yeah, the
6:45running backs stink. I remember that one year when zero running back was all the rage and the running backs bounced back
6:52that year. Uh I remember Kareem Hunt, I believe, had a huge year that year. So yeah, everything is cyclical in the NFL.
6:58I think what we've missed is like defense has just had to completely change the way they build their teams over the last 10 years and they finally
7:05have answered with, >> you know, basically offball linebackers being a thing of the past. You have to have speed in the middle of the field.
7:12You have to have speed at safety and just like edge rushers are not these big hulking rocked up guys who stop the run
7:18anymore. They're just athletes. Um, I think that that we'll we'll see some, you know, improvements over the next couple of years, starting with this
7:26year, and it mainly centers around just quarterback play. I think this is the best I, you know, objectively, this is the best that the quarterback, you know,
7:34kind of landscape has looked in three or four years. Last year and two years ago, I I was saying the opposite. I was like,
7:40man, we've got a bunch of rookies that I'm not super confident in, and it's just taken them time. It's it's taken
7:45them time. And it's it's taken time for, you know, Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert and, you know, potentially Bo Nicks. He takes
7:52another step this season. All right, John, who is your what's your first bold take? Like I said, we're going to get
7:57increasingly spicier as this as this show goes on. John, give me your first one.
8:03>> How about Mike Pitman finishes top 10 in receptions this year? That that may be that's bold. I mean, that's bold. But if
8:14you look over at our fantasy points projections, which of course I wish I had it on on on my screen right now, but
8:20I'm pretty sure uh in fact, I know we have Pitman very high in terms of uh projected targets. I believe we have
8:29them, let's see, I got it called up here. You know, like top 15 in projected targets. And I'm I'm totally all about
8:37that. And I totally see that we've got him at 13 in targets. So, I guess that's not that bold. But then again, uh if you
8:47look at Pitman's ADP, uh where the hell is he going? Uh 45 wide receiver 454. So, there you go.
8:56I mean, that's that's that's pretty damn bold here. But, you know, when >> Pitman came out, I feel like an idiot
9:02with Pitman, by the way, because I loved him coming out. Part of that was I interacted with him a couple times. I
9:09thought he was a great guy and all that, which is true. Uh, very smart. You know, when your father played in the NFL, you
9:15know what the hell was going on here.
9:16But I've actually underrated Pitman for like multiple years. And I'm like, what the hell is wrong with me? I I I
9:23freaking love this guy.
9:24>> Uh, I've also, by the way, been a DK Metaf hater for forever. Metaf used to cry, man. Uh, but in 2025, nope. Uh, I
9:34don't know if we'll ever get that back.
9:361.46 yards per route run. Uh that was only 43rd out of 76 wide receivers with at least 50 targets. Meanwhile, his 2.40
9:46uh yards per route run DK's against zone uh was 16th best. The problem is based on the projected roles. Metaf is going
9:57to try and go back to getting more downfield looks. That's a problem with Aaron Rogers who was only 59th at
10:06quarterback last year with a 6.2 A dot.
10:10He's 46th at quarterback in deep throw percentage. So basically with 40% of their targets gone, third most, I expect
10:20Pitman, who saw about 90% of his targets in the short to intermediate area, to be their true volume receiver. I I didn't
10:29really work out that well uh with Pat Frier last year. I thought that would go a little bit better, but you know, he'll
10:36be involved, but and I do like Jeremy Bernard, but look, he's a rookie playing with Aaron Rogers and and the final
10:42piece of this and again, we're all putting little pieces of the puzzle together. I've never met Aaron Rogers. I was at his combine actually. I I've been
10:52around him, but that was freaking 20 years ago as well. But, you know, we know he's an old head. We know he's a
10:58mcurial cat, but if he finds a fellow old soul who's mature, whose father played in the NFL, I think he's going to gravitate to
11:07Michael Pitman. I think he's going to love Michael Pitman just like I love Michael Pitman because I when I met him,
11:11he's like 22 years old. I'm like just like this guy's like on my level. Like I'm like 49 over here, whatever the hell
11:17I was. And uh I feel like I'm talking to an equal. So he's a very bright guy.
11:22He's been around the block. He's good as well. You know, like Aaron Rogers is going to see that big body receiver get
11:30open and he's going to throw it to him.
11:32I mean, that's the end of the day. He's going to throw Michael Pitman a ton of balls this year. I'm with you. And I I I
11:38straight up think Pitman outscores DK Mataf. I think it's by a few points per game as well. I think he just fits what
11:45this current like, you know, this offense will be and what Aaron Rogers currently is just from like a fantas fantasy perspective, John. I mean, he's
11:52a really strong just technical value, and I think there's real upside here.
11:56Finishes wide receiver 32 last season.
11:58He had the back injury in 24, but then he had backto-back seasons where he was a top 24 receiver by points per game.
12:04So, basically, I mean, he's been a really strong wide receiver three or better and 3L the last four years. And then you mentioned, I mean, the ADP is
12:10like wide receiver 44, wide receiver 45.
12:13I think the the big reason he's such a discount is because Aaron Rogers is aging. And you know, maybe there's not
12:19like true top 12 upside with Pitman, but I think he fits extremely well with Metaf. And John, you've just been right
12:26on Metaf. You've been a Metaf hater every year. Every year that's been the right call. He has never paid off ADP.
12:32This is the cheapest he's been in a long time. Uh but he's still in my opinion, I mean, I I think Pitman should be going
12:39very close to him or ahead of him. Based on our projections, we believe Pitman outscores Metaf. And you you mentioned the target share. I mean, we have
12:46Michael Pitman earning more targets than Amika Abuka this season, then George Pickkins, then Roma Dunay, then T.
12:52Higgins. It's like this guy has always been a target earner. Maybe there's not like humongous upside where he's going to finish with like 1,200 yards. Like
13:00Metaf certainly could if he has some huge games, but Metaf has always been just a big spiked week player. Much better pick in best ball than season
13:08leagues. And I think that's kind of the case this year as well. He's just he's going to have some monster weeks, but
13:12he's also going to have some some weeks where he has three catches for 50 yards and you're left scratching your head.
13:19All right, I'll keep us moving here, John. This one is one I feel the most confident about. So, full full hand up
13:25here. This is the This is my boldest take that I feel really, really good about on this show. Brock Bowers is
13:31going to not only finish as the tight end one this season, but I think he has a 2022 Kelsey or 2025 McBride like
13:39season where he outscores the tight end too by like three, four, five points per game. It's not just the target competition, it's the increased
13:48quarterback play, much significantly better quarterback play, actual NFL play caller as well. Clint Kubak is going to maximize the talent for Bowers. John
13:59Brett told me an awesome quote from Kubak that I missed earlier this off seasonason that Kubak basically called Bowers a football robot from heaven.
14:08>> I told you that one. I told you. Okay.
14:10Okay. Okay. My bad. My bad.
14:12>> I don't think there's I don't think there's anybody there's literally no there's no higher praise that you could have for for a tight end than that.
14:18Bowowers is not a tight end though, guys. He is a wide receiver that you can play at tight end. And my dankst on
14:26Bowowers, I think I've said this on the show before, is that I mean only Rob Gronowski has scored more fantasy points
14:32per game in his first two seasons than Bowowers has. No other tight end is really even close as the tight end three
14:38in their first two years. Bowers has transcendent upside this season. I am absolutely drafting the most I can get in the second round this year. John, I
14:48typically >> I I usually don't draft tight ends this early. Like I'm very very skittish on tight ends in the first two rounds, but
14:54this is one of the first times in a long time that I felt really good about it.
14:59>> I was in on Bowowers last year, quite frankly. Uh that that did not go well.
15:04But, you know, I've always been about the upside, too. You know, like the transcendent players, you get a a crack at those like, yeah, we're going to do
15:13it. And by the way, the word robot in football circles is a compliment. Like if you're a quarterback and they call
15:23you a robot, that means you have amnesia basically. It's like you're not affected by the play. It's funny. I just showed
15:31um my daughter as you know is a film student and she's she watches like 10 movies a week and uh I just watched her
15:39and her friend were over and I I showed them the Terminator and uh it's pretty good for for a couple of kids born in '
15:4506 to watch a movie in ' 84 and you know they they liked Arnold's portrayal of a robot because nothing you know nothing
15:54bothered them. So when you're when you when your coach calls you a robot, it means like whatever happens, whatever challenges, like you're just
16:03gonna keep going because you're a robot.
16:04You know what I mean? It's a And then from heaven, of course, that means he's also like fast and [laughter] and
16:09catches the ball. Well, [snorts] yeah. He's kind of a freak show. And >> there's an excellent meme here, John. We got to turn Brock Bowers into
16:16Terminator. We'll we'll we'll we'll Yeah, we'll work. That's That's excellent.
16:21>> That is a bad game. It's like, "Don't worry, I'll be back." You know, that's a very famous mo uh line in the movie, and
16:29it's interesting. You know, I was talking to my daughter about this real quick, but uh not to go off on a
16:33tangent, but in in like screenwriting choices when Arnold first saw that it he he told Jim Cameron, he goes, "Why don't
16:43we do it? I will be back cuz I'm a robot. I will be back." And Jim Cameron's like, "Just shut up and trust
16:50me." and ended up being the most uh quoted line in the entire movie because that that humanized him just a little
16:56bit. It's like I'll be back. Anyway, yeah, I I love that. Uh there's going to be like maybe one week where Bowowers
17:04will say he needs to be back this week this year, John. I think he just he's a monster. I think he's five, six, seven
17:09catches um every single week. And little big man, I see you in the chat. You know, if you're asking if Bowowers is a
17:17steal in round three, I I think he is. I think he's a steal at the end of the second round as well. And typically,
17:22yeah, I'm I'm the same way. I I try and wait on tight end. I try to wait on quarterback. I've been saying waiting on
17:29quarterback is the call this year.
17:31Myself, Joe, and Tom, we recorded a little 20-minute fantasy football daily episode yesterday you should check out after you listen to this show. And I
17:39said the same thing. I think this is just the year for late round quarterback, but I don't think it's the year for late round tight end. I love
17:44Bowers in the into the second round. I think Mc McBride is getting cheaper too, John. And even though I think Bowowers
17:50is just like a significant tier above McBride in projection this year, you know, McBride's still a pretty decent pick there at the middle of the third
17:57round where he's kind of trending down.
17:59>> I like Warren.
18:01>> Warren is my favorite pick.
18:03>> Warren is he's a tier and honestly I think I could make the and I love Coloulston Lovelin, but I think I could
18:09make the argument for Warren over Lovelin. Significantly less target competition. It's just that that's just it. I think that's it.
18:16>> Yep. By the way, I not for nothing, but >> I was all in on holding off on quarterback last year and that was the
18:22play, right? You avoided Lamar.
18:25>> Yeah, it was basically just Josh Allen.
18:27Like that was it. Like if you didn't draft Josh Allen early, everybody else either got hurt or just didn't live up
18:31to their ADP.
18:32>> Totally. Totally. And I feel more so that way this year, by the way. Even more than last year.
18:38>> Oh my god. It John, it's ridiculous. Tom Tom and I were talking about it. It's like 21 22 deep this year. I mean, you
18:44could make a case for all the way down the board to Tyler Shuck, Malik Willis, Baker Mayfield. All these guys have
18:50low-end quarterback one upside. They could all fit.
18:53>> There's 22 guys. Yes.
18:54>> Yeah. It's a It's an awesome year at quarterback. Again, this is why I think passing rebounds this year, John. All
19:00right, we'll stick with the tight end theme. I'm I'm excited to hear your argument on this one. What's your second spiciest take this year? Gregory
19:08Dosich puts up top 15 tight end numbers. He's athletic. He's still young. He should
19:18easily settle in as a top two passing option for Malik Willis. He might be one. I
19:27think the ROI is is too good uh to pass up. He finished, granted smaller sample size among 139 qualifying tight ends.
19:37Greg Doulich second best yards per route run at 2.64.
19:44And we all know it's Malik Willis and he's going to run and they have the worst receiving core in football, which
19:50should help Greg Doolsuch. But Malik Willis has made clear progress as a passer. Um, new head coach Jeff Hafley was with Green Bay last year. Uh, the
20:01new OC Bobby Slowick comes from the sha same Shanahan Laflur tree. So, I think the scheme and philosophy will be familiar for Malik Willis. And again,
20:1294.3% catchable throw rate last year for Malik Willis. Smaller sample, microscopic sample. Uh, yeah, baby. Yes. Uh,
20:23Doulich, do it. Uh Brett Whitefield. Um there it is. He's gonna be And by the way, we're already off to a good start.
20:32Guess who is kind of Malik Willis's go-to guy from the OTAAS and all that.
20:37Like who is he clicking the best with?
20:38Gregory Dulich uh to a Tonga Valoa. You know, he's got some issues at quarterback. When Darren Waller went down, what did he do? He freaking threw
20:47it to Greg Doulich because he's a bigbodied receiver in the middle of the field who's an inviting target and he's very athletic. Uh, and he has good hair.
20:56Absolutely has good hair. Uh, so there it is. I love Greg Doulich.
21:01>> Top 10 pick in good hair leagues for sure. I like this call a lot, John. And it's not really like it's it's I think
21:06Doulich is a little underrated, but it's really just like they've got no other Malik Washington stinks.
21:12>> Out stinks.
21:13>> Yeah, 22 out is just like a field stretcher.
21:15>> One at well.
21:17>> Yeah, [laughter] down. [snorts] >> That's freaking good. Uh, Atwell stinks.
21:24Jaylen Tolbert is fine as a flanker.
21:27>> Stinks.
21:27>> I I know I know Brett and our guy Steve Oor like Caleb Douglas a little bit as a deep sleeper. I like Chris Bell a little
21:34bit as like a you know last round best baseball pick is like you know maybe this guy maybe this guy pops and you
21:40could draft with Malik Willis. But yet is free. I think he is the best like stacking partner for Malik Willis. And
21:47there's there is some upside here because there are no other target earners on this offense besides Achan.
21:53>> Hey, I'm proud of those guys for trying to make some predictions about Miami's receiving core, the wide receiver core.
22:00My opinion is as we sit here on July 9th, you might as well just pull a name out of a hat and and because because
22:07it's it's completely up in the air. The only thing that isn't up in the air is that Greg Doulich is going to be a huge
22:14factor for the Miami Dolphins. I think you're right. I I don't think there's going to be a remotely close to fantasy
22:21relevant fantasy wide receiver on this team. Uh and Doulich, you know, at a tight end you position where it's like really easy honestly for tight ends
22:30after like tight end eight or tight end nine to kind of sneak into the back end of, you know, either top 12 or top 15
22:36numbers. Doulich definitely has some upside to get there. I'm with you on that. He's he's had some he's had some moments, John, where he looked really
22:43good and you know last year I know they had Darren Waller kind of pop but you know Doulich he also had a nice back end
22:49of the last uh what eight or nine games last year he had you know 2635 yards.
22:55It's fine.
22:55>> Yeah. No, he was again guy was second in the league in yards per hour run at tight end out of 3039. Again small
23:02sample >> but he's he's matured like this is it like this is and he knows it. It's like you only get so many opportunities in
23:10the NFL. He's lucky to still be in the league quite frankly. Uh but you know, this is it. This is your golden
23:17opportunity. And I I based on what I saw, I've actually met Greg Doulich.
23:21Great guy. All these tight ends are great guys, most of them. But um this is a huge year for him to to get a bag
23:29potentially.
23:31It is. And I, you know, I think with Doulich in particular, he's never really going to play too much in line, John,
23:38but with this team, you know, he'll play big slot. I mean, there's just no there's no one there's no one else.
23:43They'll replace Malik Washington.
23:44They've they've tried that now for two years with this guy.
23:46>> I can't believe how bad Malik Washington is.
23:49>> Yeah. I mean, he had he had an opportunity last year to step up after they traded Tyreek, and it just uh it
23:55did not work out. That is for sure. All right. My We're going to pivot here.
24:00We're going to pivot to some receiver talk. My my favorite receiver to draft right now at like the end of the fourth
24:06round, maybe early fifth round, >> depending on where he goes, I think Tara McLaren not only beats his ADP. I think
24:14he has a career year and finishes a top 12 wide receiver in fantasy points per game. Obviously, snake a bit in last
24:21year by injuries. Uh he got the bag and then, you know, never really uh was able to put it fully together. Then Jaden
24:28Daniels got hurt. This is a guy, John, who had five straight years of 1,000 yards and over 77 receptions in five
24:36straight seasons. He just needs a little bit of touchdown luck to go his way. And this Washington group, I mean, he is
24:44going to clearly be the lead target >> on this team. Trayon Burks, that's a joke. I like Antonio Williams a little
24:52bit later. Uh but I mean Chico Conquo really none of these guys are going to be pushing Mclloren too too hard for
25:00targets. I think he has a career year in terms of his targets. He'll get back to that 120 130 range that he's always been
25:07at in his career. I think he has the potential to push for 140 targets on this team just because of the lack of
25:13target competition. This is the least amount of target competition, John, that he's had in a long time. He is getting a
25:19little older. That is my only concern.
25:20He'll be 31 this year, but everything sets up for Mclloren >> to have a career year.
25:26>> Totally with you. Uh I almost uh did this one as well. Um real quick, I'm I don't have it in front of me, but let's
25:33go back to 2024 cuz I I pretty sure we all love McLaren in 2024 here at Fantasy Points. And I know
25:41>> you loved McLaren and I know Scott I mean Jaden Daniels was Scott's guy. It was all of our guy. So we were all over
25:46that. I would have loved Jaden Daniels if I didn't have worry about his concerns about his availability, which were legitimate in retrospect here. But
25:55um back in 2024, I'm pretty sure McLaren was a wide receiver one uh in in total scoring, which I'm I'm pulling up now.
26:02>> He was I think he was wide receiver 14 off the top of my head. I mean, he was >> seven
26:07total scoring.
26:08>> Okay.
26:09>> In points per game, it wasn't as good.
26:13So, he was only wide receiver 16. uh in points per game. You know, uh I I was out last year, by the way. I was all in
26:22in 2024, out in 2025. Not bragging, I'm just giving a tip. Whenever you get a veteran receiver with anything close to
26:28a contract impass or hold out and miss time, forget it. Just don't do it. Cuz that guy tends to get hurt. Uh he missed
26:37twice as many games last year as his previous six seasons combined. So, no hold out concerns. He looks re-energized
26:47in the new offense. David Blau is a first-time play caller. That is a little bit of a concern. But the other thing is
26:53I never liked Cliff Kingsbury. It's one of those things where I'm like, I can't exactly tell you why I think he stinks.
27:00I just know he stinks. And he does. Um, one of the problems is the offense was too static. You know, he's lining up at
27:08X, you know, every freaking snap and it makes things a little bit more predictable. So, he's going to be moving around the formation. Uh, and by the
27:16way, god forbid Jaden Daniels goes down again. He did click pretty well with Marcus Mariota. So, that's that's worth noting, I think. So, yeah, I'm with you.
27:25I'm all in on McLaren.
27:26>> That is a part of my reasoning for my love for Mcccluren this year is like it is one of the best backup quarterback
27:32situations in the league. Mariota acquitted himself very well last year. I thought he played pretty like pretty well like top. I mean, he almost like in
27:39my opinion deserves another job. Like one more chance as a starter. I thought he >> Oh, I don't know about that. But I mean,
27:45great backup. [laughter] >> I mean, you look around the league though, John, look at what we've dealt with like last couple years. Like
27:51there's there I know I'm bullish on, you know, teams bouncing back this season, but there are still some some pretty bad
27:57quarterback situations right now. I mean, >> uh we'll see, you know, what the Vikings do can do with Kyler Murray. I mean,
28:04this is a team that certainly needs it.
28:06I I think CJ Strad kind of sinks. I think Arizona's in a rough spot. I think the Jets are in a rough spot. I think
28:12the Panthers are still in a rough spot.
28:15Uh Browns are in a rough spot. Like there's there's Mariota's not anything special. Let's be very clear about that.
28:20But he is a a little bit of a floor whereas some teams they don't have a backup quarterback. My entire thing
28:26though with just real quick to round out my point, Jane Daniels, John two years ago, his rookie season, he was sixth in
28:33catchable throw rate behind only Joe Burrow, Tua, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff.
28:37He basically tied Gino Smith. The problem with Gino Smith is he also threw a he has a ton of turnover worthy
28:42throws. He's top 10 in turnover worthy throw rate. Jane Daniels was bottom five in turnover worthy throw rate. So he makes a lot of good decisions and he
28:49throws a lot of catchable passes.
28:51Obviously last year was just a little bit of a lost year dealing with multiple injuries. He fractured his rib early in
28:56the year. Had to be super painful. Not only running, but you know, trying to throw the ball as well. I am all in on
29:02Terry Mcccluren. All right, John. Third spicy take. Bold take. Go bold. What do you got here? Well, first and foremost,
29:13I was exactly wrong on the Viking quarterback situation last year. I do think that there were a lot of mitigating circumstances. There's some
29:22weird [ __ ] going on. The offensive line was decimated. It was ugly. However, I also have a 30-year track record of
29:31getting this team uh very very right, including, for example, as I Dante Co Pepper, you know, uh I ranked him at QB3
29:40in 2000 despite zero starts and he crushed uh behind Manning, I believe, and Curt Warner. But, uh, despite being incredibly wrong, um, and look, it was a
29:5114th round pick last year, McCarthy, but I also did like Hawinson. Um, but my gut again is telling me that this Kyler
29:59Murray thing is going to work out. I mean, that's it. Bottom line. Um, change of scenery. He's been knocked down a
30:05peg. He's also playing for one $1 million. That's all he's freaking making. So, that really helps out the rest of the roster.
30:15uh their offense. So, again, I I don't have, you know, any data because the offensive data for the Vikings sucked.
30:23Uh Kyler Murray's data last year sucked.
30:26So, we're we're just spitballing here.
30:28But again, the Vikings offensive I mean, I need to start going to church and saying prayers for uh Christian Daras. I
30:35mean, this guy's killing me here because I mean, he he's he's the best left tackle I've ever seen. And well, Gary
30:41Zimmerman was pretty damn good, but that was like 30 years ago. But he's the best left tackle they've had in decades. I I
30:47think he could be a top five left tackle, maybe even like top three if he's healthy and, you know, feeling good
30:55and all that. You know, I like O'Neal at right tackle. I know he's in a little bit of a contract impact. I think
31:00Donovan Jackson's very good. So, I think their offensive line is going to be good. Look, we all know, I mean, he's
31:07going to run uh there. So, that will help. Obviously, they're going to have to make adjustments.
31:13I I I'm a little iffy on Okonnell just in general, I have to say. But look, if anyone thinks the Vikings offense sucks
31:22that like, okay, like talk about recency bias, you know what I mean? Um the the components are in place for them to
31:31crush. Um Jawan Jennings, that was uh that's a tremendous third receiver. Um, Addison, Jennings, and Jefferson.
31:41That's one of the top three trios in the league. Hawinson has been a freaking buzzkill, but he's still capable at the
31:49very least. Uh, and the running back room isn't going to be dominant. I I think, by the way, Jordan Mason is going
31:55to be a bigger factor than people think.
31:57But look, at the end of the day, Kyler's going to stay healthy. He's going to be focused. The Vikings and Okonnell are
32:05kind of Mr. every they're every other year a little bit. It's all set up for him to get he's going to trick another
32:12team. Hopefully, it's not the Vikings to give him another big contract after 2026. It's going to go well. Kyler
32:20Murray will be a QB1 in 2026.
32:24So, you rewind the clocks. Two years ago, Sam Darnold joins up with the Vikings. And [laughter] there he is. He's going to be throwing
32:34freaking lasers to Justin [laughter] Jefferson. Uh yeah, he is a tiny guy.
32:39But you rewind the clocks. Sam Darnold before he joined the Vikings, he was a career 3.5% passing touchdown rate with like a 6 and
32:49a half YPA. Kyler Murray is like he's been better than that his entire career.
32:53All of his rate stats have been better than that. Then you mention the fact that he is amazing on scramble drill.
33:00He's amazing at extending plays. Uh, you know, prior to last year, John, he finished as a top 12 quarterback in four
33:06straight seasons and it was like easy money every year. Like he was QB8 every single year. You could just kind of set
33:13your watch to it. Uh, I I'm with you on Kevin Okonnell. I've got some questions about him, too. Our guy Ryan Pagnetti,
33:19who uh he used to work for the Eagles and the Jaguars, he put out a tweet a couple days ago looking at pass rates on
33:26second and 10 after an incompletion. And typically you want to pass in those situations on second and 10, long down in distance, kind of get back maybe to
33:34third and short or even get a first down. Kevin Oonnell surprisingly was like second to last in pass rate. His pass rate was like 38% on second and 10.
33:42And I was like hold on is is chaos is he actually kind of the fake sharp? Like I hate saying that.
33:48>> I think he is. I think it's >> he has moments though, John, where man, like >> when in ter when he's in a groove and
33:54he's scheming plays well and he's in a rhythm, >> he's among the best play callers.
34:00>> Among the best, but when the chips are high, the stakes are high, like the playoffs playoffs. Um, he shits the bed
34:09is what he does. He shits the bed in the playoffs.
34:12>> Yeah. I don't know if he I don't know if he's modernized enough between the second and 10 long down pass rate and
34:18he's always been super super pass heavy inside the 10. You know, this is typically where you want to be like 50/50. You want to be able to run and
34:25pass the ball inside the 10. Uh he's he he does need to scheme up a little better run game uh in the red zone, take
34:32a little pressure off of off of Kyler.
34:34But I I love this call. You're you're on Kyler. Scott's on Kyler. Definitely makes me feel a lot better. And he's QB
34:4017 QB18P.
34:42uh work.
34:43>> Yeah. I unless it's just like either he gets hurt or is legitimately terrible, like worse than last year, >> this will be his job all year.
34:51>> You know what bothers me about Okonnell real quick? Not to go off on a tangent and I'm I'm I'm going to bring up
34:56>> Please take us on a tangent. I I love the John tangents.
34:59>> I'm going to take the I'm going to be on this J.J. McCarthy obsession for like uh the next decade. It's like when JJ
35:05McCarthy suffered the injury, I'm watching Oonnell in his press conference and and look, we we have a
35:14filter to handle coach speak. He was eusive in his praise. And this is this is after a couple of weeks of training
35:24camp, that first preseason game where he looked pretty good and the OTAAS that year. Okay. So he he was exposed to JJ
35:33McCarthy for multiple months, couple of weeks in camp and one training camp. The injury occurred and go back and and look
35:42at what Okonnell said about JJ McCarthy at the end of that year. Okay. Well, I'm basing a good amount of my analysis on
35:50McCarthy coming into 2025 on those comments. He hasn't played since then.
35:55So what the hell changed? because apparently you it seemed like we got to 2026 and all of a sudden Okonnell hated
36:02JJ McCarthy. So what the hell happened?
36:04And he kind of distances himself. It's like see this is the problem with the Vikings. It's an organizational they don't know what the hell they're doing.
36:12The Wolves mean well, but they're too distracted by their other businesses >> that they let them kind of do whatever they need to do, the people that they
36:21hire. And there's there's problems within that organization. I mean, we didn't even know who the general manager was just a couple of months ago. Just
36:28just just um Yeah, KC hated that JJ missed a practice for the birth of his son. I mean, I think I'm going to go on McCarthy side
36:37on that's one freaking practice. I mean, >> I'm going with McCarthy side on that one, too.
36:42>> Yeah. [laughter] >> Yeah. You better believe that. But at the end of the day, I I think with McCarthy, it was just um a few things.
36:50This team could not run the ball effectively last year. They had periods and pockets where they could run the ball, but he really needed a good run
36:57game to kind of help even out this offense. Uh the defense was okay last year. I mean, they you know, Flores is a
37:04great coach, I think. Um great defensive mind.
37:07>> It's just they they it was a few different things. They they put a lot on McCarthy's plate, like I said.
37:11>> They did. Yeah.
37:12>> Two they've always KOC's always been a pass heavy coach, which in general I agree with. You want to be more pass
37:17heavy than runheavy. Uh but they just desperately desperately needed to take some I don't know some of the pressure off of him. Uh you know
37:26>> the regression that's forthcoming in offensive line like again it's like uh I had a house and not to go off personal here. I had a house um
37:36burned down two years ago and at the very least I'm like well guess what it's not burning down twice. You know what I
37:42mean? Uh so we're good. uh their offensive line, they they literally cannot have as many injuries as they had last year. It's just impossible.
37:53>> Yeah. Few things should be a lot better.
37:55It should be the offensive line health.
37:57It should be uh you know, the quarterback play. Uh you know, McCarthy last year, man, I mean, he was third last third from last in catchable throw
38:04rate, 69%. Not nice.
38:07>> He was off. There's no doubt he was off.
38:09Michael Pennix and Shadur Sanders were the only two that had a lower catchable throw rate here at fantasy points data.
38:15I think >> by the way McCarthy the one thing I did get right is he was a big factor with his legs had four touchdowns on the
38:21ground in 10 games.
38:22>> It's one of the things he did well is extend plays.
38:26>> Yeah. So he projected to to get like six touchdowns on the ground. So I think that bodess very well for Kyler.
38:35>> I agree. And I think this is his job. As long as he does not get hurt, as long as he does not get hurt or just plays
38:41significantly worse than last year, >> this is his job. So John thinks Kyler finishes as a top 12 quarterback in fantasy. I'm going to keep us going
38:51here. I think Brock Perie finishes as a top five quarterback in fantasy football. Not only that, I think he also throws a careerhigh in touchdowns. His
39:00previous careerhigh was 31. I think he gets into the high30s this year. I think he pushes Joe Burrow as the top like
39:07kind of, you know, pocket quarterback in the league. Getting George KD back fully healthy by like October, November is huge. Mike Evans is a touchdown machine.
39:16I think Ricky Pieraw, John, you've just sold me on Persaw. I I was kind of underrating him before you and I spoke
39:21about him. I think Persaw, he has a chance to really break out in year three. And then obviously Kyle Shanahan is just the quarterback whisperer. You
39:29know, Brock Pury has been a monster of efficiency in his career. He's got a career 6% touchdown rate, nearly nine yards per pass attempt in his career.
39:39He's thrown for at least a 7% touchdown rate in three out of four seasons.
39:44>> Getting Trent Williams back fully healthy for one last ride. I am just wheels up on Brock Perie. You look at
39:50his last couple of seasons, John. I mean, he's like QB7 in fantasy points per game, but he's he's QB12 and ADP. We
39:55do this every year with this guy that he's like locked in top eight every year, but we still draft him at like
40:01QB12, QB13. I'm I'm saying I'm putting my stamp on it. I think he finishes top five this season.
40:06>> I've been in on Brock Birdie every year uh starting from year one. The only reason this year I'm not like really
40:14just pounding the table. It's availability. That's it. Uh but as I mentioned um on a on a previous stream, uh I don't know if people realize this,
40:22but you know, I lost I went 11 and four on on preseason props that I put out last July. And one of the losses was
40:30pretty touchdowns. Hello. Uh he almost got it in nine games. I mean that's unbelievable. So he was in nine games
40:40>> his 17 game touchdown pace was 43.
40:44That's 37.5 passing and 5.5 on the ground. That is the upside. If
40:53things if we're in a if if it's like football nirvana for the ners this year, that's the upside. 43 touchdowns for
41:01Brock Birdie.
41:02>> I Yeah, I I think you're right. I think it is like a 40 touchdown year. Burrow had what? 46, I believe, two years ago
41:09in 203, I believe.
41:10>> 40. Yeah, something like that. I mean, that's his upside. And I actually misspoke. Brock Party is not QB6 in fantasy points per game in the last
41:16three years. He's actually QB5. He's outscored Joe Burrow by onetenth of a point over the last three seasons. The only two five quarterbacks, excuse me,
41:23four quarterbacks who have outscored him in that span are all the running guys.
41:26It's Josh Allen, Lamar, Jaylen Herz, and Jane Daniels. I mean, it it is unbelievable how cheap this guy is. And I think he had he's in just for an
41:33absolutely monster season.
41:36>> Yeah. And the the word on KD is pretty encouraging right now.
41:40>> It does seem good. I saw some videos of him at his tight end university. He's kind of It seems like a little ahead of
41:46schedule. That's always like I I hate saying stuff like that, but I mean >> Well, they're doing like it was a
41:51cutting edge >> Yeah.
41:54>> uh surgery or procedure that was done to deal with this Achilles. It's a new It's a new thing that has apparently put him
42:00a little ahead of schedule that that we're conditioned uh to believe in uh based on the history of these injuries.
42:07>> Yeah. Jason Tatum, a basketball uh stud for the Celtics, he had the same Achilles injury. I guess >> he went to the same doctor
42:15>> and he blew out his timeline. Like he fully came back.
42:18>> Yeah, there you go.
42:19>> Um >> that's like the new ACL then, you Yeah, KD's a little older, but you know, between the new surgery and we're living
42:27in this age of peptides, John, where uh people people are doing >> they're they're beating some crazy injuries uh with with this new
42:34technology and new medicine. Um I don't think KD's going to be back fully healthy by September, maybe not even October, but November and December when
42:42the money is made in fantasy football, that's when he's going to be hopefully back to fully healthy and balling.
42:47>> Jake Todd is pretty decent. I this it really kind of hasn't mattered for Pertie to be honest with you. Like they
42:53didn't have IUK all of last year. Uh KD, you know, KD missed time with a hamstring injury as well. Obviously Pertie then got hurt,
43:00>> but like M. Jones was a, you know, fine like mid-range QB, too. Like this this offense is just it it just produces. By
43:07the way, I've always been a Christian Kirk fan and he's pretty good. you know, when when he came out, >> he was like, you know, second, third
43:17round pick [snorts] >> inside, maybe a little outside guy, you know, guys like that are kind of a dime a dozen, you know, might might hit,
43:26might not, you know, like, but he's been pretty good. You know, Christian Kirk is isn't bad at all. I don't know. He'll
43:32probably won't see as much uh snaps as he's seen, but I I like that. I I like Christian having Christian Kirk there.
43:38The guy makes plays.
43:40>> Yeah, he's been good. um last couple years I still think he had some juice left in the tank the last you know last
43:45year but yeah he's going to be like a 40 to 50% snapshare player I bet a little bit of a chain mover uh but to start the
43:52year I mean I think he might have to play a little more because they're they're probably going to stick an 11
43:56with uh with KD out uh 49ers are seventh in implied points per game. They're basically half of a point per game
44:03behind the Bills, half a point, excuse me, half a point per game behind the Cowboys as well. And again, Dak Prescott
44:11is going about a round or two ahead of Brock Party right now in ADP. I think that's a mistake. Perie finishedes top
44:17five in fantasy points per game. John, we have not talked a single running back on this show. That's about to change
44:24very quickly. We've got a lot of bold takes here. Three running backs we're going to talk through. Why don't you get
44:30just started with your running one of your first running back takes?
44:34>> Never been before, but I'm I'm I'm in and I'm feeling Mr. Chuba, Hubard, uh, Mr. Every other year. And, uh, it's even
44:43years. We want them. And, yeah, it's, uh, 2026. That would be even. And, you know, that's true. But I'm not hanging
44:51my hat on that. I'm hanging my hat on the fact that this has all been due to injuries essentially. Uh, so last year,
44:59well, the year before he had that grade two calf strain in December, uh, that shut down a breakout season. We're only
45:07two years removed from a huge breakout year from Chuba Hubard. Uh that opened the door last year uh for Rico Dattle.
45:14He he suffered another calf injury last year early which did open the door. Uh Hubard admitted that he came back too
45:20quick. So I do believe that it's very plausible that a clean bill of health this year means that you know we're
45:26good. Uh the Panthers slightly below average in term of rushing volume, but they I I still think they're a running team with Bryce Young. They block it up
45:34relatively well. 13th in yards before contact per attempt, 10th best stuff rate. Uh, you know, they use their number one pick on a tackle. I know Icky
45:46uh is going to be uh sus as they say uh for maybe even the whole year, but they've got including Icky, they got
45:55four viable offensive tackles uh on the roster. Um so I feel pretty good about that. And again, it, you know, even if
46:06Jonathan Brooks, I mean, running backs last year for the Panthers had 400 plus carries and 90 plus targets. So, is Jonathan Brooks really getting 200 plus
46:15carries coming off two ACL's? I I'm I'm not counting on that. So, I feel very very good that Hubard is going to get at
46:22least 225 touches. And by the way, it's week one.
46:28Who's out there in pass pro on in passing sit? It's Chuba Hubard. They're not going to play Jonathan Brooks early in the season out there in in passing
46:35situations. So, Hubard is just one season removed from an R RB15 season when he had 293 touches and 11 touchdowns. So, I think he's a great
46:46pick. I mean, that's it. Uh, so I think he'll finish as an RB2 and you can get him in the seventh round. And that's
46:54that's the thing. Is it going to be like, oh my god, no. Oh, but I think at the end of the year, you're going to
46:59look back and say, "Yeah, that was a pretty damn good pick I made at Chuba Hubard in round seven."
47:03We're two years removed from Chuba being RB7 in yards after contact per carry. I mean, he was really freaking good 2024.
47:11I believe he was also top 10 in EPA per attempt. He's a two-face. He's a fantasy two-face one. And it's not his fault.
47:20He's a guy when he's not right physically, he stinks.
47:24But when he's good, he's good.
47:27>> I think it was the injury last year, John. Uh, you know, I think the one big thing that's gonna hold Chuba back has
47:34nothing to do with Chuba. It's Bryce Young. He's averaging 180 yards per game passing in his entire career. We really need Bryce to take a big step forward. I
47:43have not personally seen that. I have not gotten there with Bryce Young, but I'm with you on Hubard being a really,
47:49you know, pretty decent RB2 this season.
47:52Uh the volume should definitely be there and I'm just with you on Jonathan Brooks. I I think at this point a good
47:57season for him would be like he gets seven or eight carries per game and stays fully healthy and is a change of
48:02pace to Hubard. I think there's like a 25% chance that he takes this backfield over. I thought he was awesome coming
48:08out of college, but I mean two ACL tears in three years. There's a chance that he's not even close to the same player
48:14that he once was at Texas before all these injuries. Um I'm I'm with you on Hubard being a really strong volume
48:20player. I mean, he was the RB13 in 2024.
48:23RB13, borderline one.
48:25>> I think we should also have some confidence in Dave Canales. I mean, Dave Canales can't play quarterback for the Carolina Panthers, but Dave Canales can
48:34do the best job almost humanly possible uh to put all the players in the team in a position to succeed. That that's
48:43that's his deal. He he he'll simplifi simplify things and just basically put his players in best position to succeed.
48:52I've heard that from multiple people including Rashad White who told me that multiple times in interviews like he just is good at putting guys in a good
49:02spot basically. And look, not surprisingly, they kind of made they made the playoffs last year. So, you know, Dave Canales is
49:10pretty good.
49:12I think he's a very good coach. Uh Bradick will take over play calling duties this year, but this is still going to be Canales's offense. I think
49:18it's just one of those things where Canales will have his hands, you know, and his fingerprint all over the offense, but he's, you know, just trying
49:24to take a step back, give Edzik the play calling duties, but he's always had a good run game. Canales has always been
49:30able to run the ball with the Bucks, with the Panthers, with good offensive line play. He had a really strong offensive line when Trist, especially
49:36when Tristan Worst was healthy back with the Bucks. And you know, this Panthers offensive line is is getting better.
49:42It's still not great. Uh they're going to be able to run the football this year. I am with you on that one. One
49:49team that I think is going to lead the NFL in rushing this year. I think the Chargers straight up lead the NFL in
49:56rushing. I think Omarian Hampton not only finishes in RB1, not only finishes like top eight in fantasy points per game, I think he straight up outscores
50:04Ashton Genty this season. I right now Genti is going at the back end of the first round. Hampton solidly kind of in
50:11the middle of the second. He's starting to come up a little bit especially in sharper leagues over at the FFPC in an
50:17FFC. Some high stakes leagues. I think he's going to continue to trend up as everyone kind of gravitates more towards where I'm saying. Uh Hampton, by the
50:25way, I don't know how bull this this is because Hampton outscored Ashen Genty last year. He he did it in nine games.
50:30He averaged 15.1 PPR points per game.
50:32Genty was around 14 and a half. Hampton outscored Bejian Robinson. Uh if you compare their rookie seasons as well, he scored slightly more fantasy points per
50:41game, maybe two or three ten of a more of a point per game in PPR. Hampton just has massive, massive league winning
50:48upside. This Chargers offense with Mike McDaniel is going to fully maximize his talent. Hampton was top five in success rate, top five in yards per carry on man
50:59gap concepts. You better believe McDaniel is scheming up some sick run concepts to get Hampton in space downhill. He's an incredibly tough
51:08tackler, bruising player. Doesn't have that like make you miss ability that Achan does. So, it is a different type of play uh for for Hampton. But I'm just
51:17very very bullish on the Chargers this year between the play caller uh improvement between, you know, this defense was really good last year, John.
51:25Like really freaking good. There's going to be a lot of good game scripts and I'm just in big in bigly in on the Chargers
51:32this year. [laughter] They got a 9 and a half win total. It is right there. Tied with the Broncos, tied with the Bears, tied with the Cowboys,
51:40tied with the Bengals. Like I I know we do this every year with the Chargers where we get really excited about them,
51:45but I am I'm very big on Hampton this season. I think he's going to lead teams to fantasy football champions.
51:52>> For what it's worth, >> I I don't get high on the Chargers. like I get high on life. No. Um I have not
51:58been really that high on the Chargers like uh you know and >> Justin Herbert's your guy though. You like Herbert.
52:03>> Oh no. This year I am. That's my point.
52:05>> Oh yeah. Okay. Okay.
52:06>> You know this year I feel really good.
52:08Like um I'm feeling it. There's really no doubt about it. I'm I'm feeling it.
52:12Well, I'm also feeling as we move along here to uh we got three more to pop out.
52:19You know, I I'm an agist, but every once in a while I I'll go with an old head if the situation uh dictates. I think it's
52:28fair to say that Mark Andrews is slowing down. Average separation score did decline in 2025 compared to 2024. Of course, in 2024, it was outstanding. And
52:39they lost Isaiah likely and my guy Charlie Kohler. They're going to try and break in a couple of young tight ends,
52:46basically rookies. Uh, and they're not going to do crap. Uh, those two rookies.
52:52Uh, Durham Smite is going to be the the inline guy, uh, because he's a pretty good blocker. Uh, so Mark Andrews will
53:01be in the slot as usual. Uh, he ran 70% of his routes from the slot last year.
53:06His average separation score was still the ninth best among 69 tight ends with 100 routes. Uh, the win rate was seventh
53:15best. It was better than Kyle Pittz, Coloulston Lovelin, and Trey McBride. 31 in September. Uh there is a potential out in the contract after 2026, but they
53:25just signed him to this big three-year extension this past December with 20 million guaranteed. They are counting on him bigly [laughter] this year. I mean
53:36because Lamar I mean we got some interesting you know young receivers like Sarat I know is you know starting to gain some momentum even though camp
53:46is not kicked off yet but Rashad Baitman is just so boring. Uh I mean Lamar is going to be looking for his boy Mandrews. So Mark
53:57Andrews will be a top 10 tight end this year.
54:01>> I'm with you on this and I'm I'm going to take it a step further. I'm finishing up my tears article that should be out
54:05on fantasypoints.com here in a few weeks. I actually ended up with Andrews at tight end 7. I I love him this
54:11season. Yeah. Spicy.
54:13>> Yeah. I So I I think he's right after Pitts and Fannon to me. Uh there's huge touchdown upside. The big thing I keep
54:20coming back to is like back in 21 and 22 when Andrews was a top five, you know, tight end [snorts] every single week.
54:26You know, he was running a route on like 80% of the drop backs. John, that should be back this season. Isaiah likely's
54:31gone like you mentioned. and Charlie Kohler's gone. It is going to be a fulltime route share for Andrews and they extended them. I mean, they they've
54:38got to get the most they can out of this contract. I know maybe he is trending down. A lot of the numbers underneath
54:44the hood, like you mentioned, the separation score uh are trending down, but you know, you don't have to pay for that. The ADP is very, very nice. Tight
54:50end 11, tight end 12, 100 picks into your draft. Uh if you're waiting on tight end this year, I know we said, you
54:57know, we're all over Brock Bowers. I'm with you on your enthusiasm for Tyler Warren, but I think this is a a really
55:02good year to kind of wait and get into that Mark Andrews pocket late in your draft.
55:08>> It's a good sign we're all sharing a brain because I did not confer >> with you guys because I kind of go on my
55:14own, you know, uh and I I think it's always a great sign when when multiple people on staff are with me. And it
55:20seems like we're kind of in unison a lot of dudes this year. That that is usually a good sign. That is usually a very good
55:27sign. and we'll see if we're on the same page with this one. I think AJ Brown finally has an apex season, John. I
55:34think he not only finishes as a top 12 wide receiver by points per game for his fifth straight year, I think he finishes
55:40as a top three wide receiver in fantasy football. I think it'll be either Chase or Puka as wide receiver one or two. I
55:47think AJ Brown pays off massively in the middle of the second round. Uh still just 29, gets a huge quarterback upgrade
55:55between Drake May and Jaylen Herz. For what it's worth, I have always been a Jaylen Herz fan. I've been a Jaylen Herz
55:59truther my entire career. It's paid off big time for me. But Drake May is just better. Last year, Drake May was seventh
56:06in catchable throw rate, sixth in EPA per drop back. The big difference between the two is they're both very good against man coverage, but May has
56:14just been better over the last two years against zone coverages. And obviously, that's what you're going to face in the NFL 70 to 80% of the time at this point.
56:21Brown has been a massive target earner over the last two seasons. He's got 36% of the first read targets and that's
56:28playing with Devontto Smith and Dallas Goddard. I personally do not believe Romeo Dobs or Kahan Booty or Hunter Henry are even close to that, you know,
56:36level of target competition. And this Patriots offense last year, John, they handed the keys over to Drake May. Josh McDaniels called the fifth most pass
56:44heavy offense and pass rate over expectation at plus 5%. Eagles have obviously never even come close to that.
56:50They've never been a top 10 passing offense and pass rate. Everything is lining up for AJ Brown to have a monster
56:56season this year. I think he pays off in a big way. And I I think I'll have as much as I could possibly get my hands on
57:02with Brown, especially when I take a running back in the first round. Coming back, RB1, get your hammer in the first
57:09round and then get your wide receiver one and AJ Brown in the second.
57:13>> Now, our our projections Maven Chris Wet just chimed in. I was wondering uh there it is. AJ Brown is the worst. I was
57:21like, is that a fake? Is that a fake Chris Wack account? But no, >> we got a we got a we got a special uh
57:27special uh guest here with Chris dropping in the chat. Wow.
57:31>> Well, I'll split the difference Chris.
57:34>> I'll split the difference and say that a I think it's going to work out very well. I think the marriage between May
57:40and Brown is going to be fantastic. Um doesn't hurt that Brown apparently was a Patriots fan thanks to uh Tommy Brady.
57:47You know, we looked at a lot of the routes that May excels at are the same ones that Brown does. Um, he he'll be
57:55fine. I I'm not going to go as far as you. I do worry a little bit about Josh McDaniels wanting to be cute and fancy
58:02and working in Matt Collins and, you know, rotating in Kyle Williams and Deario Douglas and, you know, maybe Eli Rarin, you know. So, a lot lot of mouths
58:12to feed, but at the end of the day, he's not dumb. Uh, AJ Brown is going to get the ball. Um, I don't know to the level
58:18that you uh are in. I'm I'm not going to go a bold prediction on it, but I do believe just the basic point that AJ
58:26Brown this year is going to go well.
58:28It's going to work in New England. So, I'll give you that.
58:32>> We mean, we need to have Chris on the show. Chris and I usually kind of share a brain. We're very both like extremely
58:38analytically driven, but I think we should do a show, Chris. Uh, you and I we'll hash out some of our disagreements. Uh maybe in a couple
58:45weeks we'll put together a list and and put together a a little show of just some disagreements that he and I both
58:50have and we'll we'll go at it. Uh I I just I think Drake May is just such a stud. I think he's a massive, you know,
58:56talent elevator. And yeah, sure, maybe AJ Brown has lost a step. He's got degenerative knees apparently. Um if he's lost a step, Drake May can
59:04certainly find a way uh to regain that step for him because he was so good last year. John, get us out of here with your
59:13spiciest, your bold take for this season. It's another running back.
59:18>> By the way, um I I want to spill the beans. I got the order wrong. Okay, so that you know like like these are not
59:27necessarily ranked for me. Just just just so you know. [snorts] >> But last year um I know we talked about I liked uh Jaylen Warren last year. I
59:36was I was high on Jaylen Warren. Well, it worked. He was RB17. Uh he's like I think he's a good pick in round seven,
59:44it's a lot like a little bit like Chuba Hubard last year. I'm like I if I'm looking for my RB3 in round seven, it's
59:49Jaylen Warren. Uh and he was like RB17 and when it wasn't incredible. Uh but that said, Jaylen Warren has rushed for
59:57100 yards only four times in the last four seasons. something that Rico Dael did for Mike McCarthy in four of his
60:08last five games, the Cowboy in 2024.
60:13Then, of course, as we know last year, I mean, Jaylen Warren has literally no chance of running for over 200 yards
60:20because he's not going to get the volume most of the time. Rico, they'll feed him the ball. He got a 206 yard game, 183
60:26yard game, 130 yard uh game.
60:31You know, he's back with McCarthy.
60:33McCarthy's back in Pittsburgh. He's Mr.
60:35Pittsburgh. He loves running the rock.
60:38Uh Dowel is going to try to become, I believe, the first player in NFL history to run for a thousand yards in three
60:44consecutive years for three different teams. We are projecting him to only finish 20th in carries, 29th in rushing yards, 27th in catches, but I still
60:55think he is a small value is like RB 35.
60:59By the way, um RB30, he was RB35 like just like a month ago or six weeks ago. So, I think the Pittsburgh
61:10Steelers, they got to change it up because last year was horrible. Uh so, what they do? They got in a new head
61:17coach. They're going to have a new lead back and a new go-to receiver in Michael Pitman. So, Rico Dael uh will be Suave
61:26uh this year and he will be let's let's just say he's an RB. That's it. You you draft him as an RB3 in round eight, but
61:35he produces like an RB2.
61:38>> I'm with you on him outproducing Wadd or excuse me, not Wadd Warren on the ground. Warren should get that kind of
61:43like Kenny Gainwellesque from last year, but I mean natural role.
61:48>> I mean, Rico's still caught nearly 40 balls in back-to-back seasons. He got 39 receptions in back-to-back years. He's got some workhorse upside. And if Warren
61:56were to get hurt, man, I mean, we we would probably be projecting D is like a our top 15 RB every single week if
62:03Warren were to miss time. So, there's that contingent upside there as well.
62:06I've been warming on Dowel as well. I'm I'm kind of I don't know. I've I've leaned a little bit towards Warren in my
62:12drafts this year, John, but I think he might have just sold me to maybe bump up Dow even more. John, this was an awesome
62:18show. Tight 60 minutes on 12 bold predictions this year that are going to help you win your fantasy football leagues. Again, use code fantasy. That's
62:27just one word fantasy. Get yourself 10% off any planet at fantasypoints.com.
62:32Make sure you subscribe to the channel so you never miss a video from myself or John or any of our fantastic staff here.
62:38And if you disagree or agree with any of our big bold takes this year, sound off in the comments down below. We love to
62:45hear from you. Until next time, we will see you at the top of the leaderboards.

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