0:11Fantasy Football Daily is back. Welcome in. On this Thursday, we have an awesome episode for you. Today, I've enlisted my
0:20guy John Hansen, the guru, given 12 bold predictions. John, I don't think there's anybody in in the industry that has a
0:27higher hit rate on their bold calls than you do. I've been doing this for a long time, as of you, but I've been working
0:33with you for at least 10 years now, I think, at this point. Your bold calls typically typically work out extremely well. Mark says he loves the bold calls.
0:40No mild [ __ ] Keep them spicy. We're going to keep them spicy here. Uh it's it's good to be back with you guys.
0:46What's up, chat? Is uh good Thursday morning, John? We got 12 bold calls.
0:50We're going to go six each. Uh, it's going to be this is going to be a great show. You guys are going to learn a lot
0:55and uh hopefully we do keep it spicy.
0:58>> Yeah, I tried to pop out some names that I haven't been talking about a ton here, but let's be honest here. We're we're
1:05closing in on the opening of training camp. We're tightening everything up.
1:08We're We got our positions. We got our guys. But yeah, I do have a couple of players that, you know, also when you're
1:16doing bowl, like you got to be careful.
1:17Like you you gotta you don't want to force it. You know what I mean? And you got to let it come to you that, you
1:23know, like there's a tight end here that I think it's a slam dunk that we're going to get to. I'm going to get to.
1:30It's a slam dunk, but his ADP right now is is infinity. Like, uh, he's he's barely being drafted. So, it's going to
1:39come across as bold. Uh, cuz I think this guy's going to put up top 15 numbers. That's an example of like I'm
1:44not forcing it. I'm like, this is I'm looking at my rankings compared to the markets and I'm like way over the
1:50markets. So, I guess it is a bold prediction, but ready to rock and roll.
1:54>> Yeah, it is. It's a equal parts of feeling with your chest and then also being like, "Okay, this is this is
1:58actually a little scary." Just a little scary. You got to have that fear, a little fear factor in there as well. Uh
2:04John, you just released your article gurus, guys. You're going to have your draft plan and cheat sheets ready here in a couple weeks. And if you haven't
2:11already, subscribe to Fantasy Points.
2:14Use promo code fantasy. That's just one word fantasy. It'll get you 10 bucks off. You can get John's articles, cheat sheets, and the rest of our site for
2:24>> cheat sheets will be up within days, by the way. I'm I've been working all all week on them. And uh yeah, we'll we'll
2:30be up there maybe even What's today?
2:32Thursday. Maybe even Friday.
2:34>> All right. John's going to pull an allnighter tonight. I'm putting that on WAX. He's pulling he's [laughter] pulling an all nighter tonight to get
2:39him up. I'm just joking. Uh John's cheat sheets are always gold. Always interesting to see where John is uh massively different from the market. And
2:47that's what we're going to get into today is just some bold calls. I'm going to get us started here, John. And this
2:52one, it's it's kind of bold, but kind of not. We'll kind of get increasingly bolder. I in general, I just think
2:58passing rebounds this season. You look at the last couple of years, we've just seen a decline in passing yards per game. This past year, it bottomed out at
3:07209.7 passing yards per game. Is the fewest passing yards per game last season uh we've had since 2006.
3:14Um, I I just think there was a a bunch of factors that played into this last year. We had a number of injuries
3:20between Lamar Jackson, a bunch of high-end players, Jaden Daniels missing time, getting hurt. It's also just a, you know, the current NFL meta. Teams
3:28are playing slower. They're running the ball more. I think we're going to see some answers this year. We're in the year three of this kind of new changing
3:36guard. And I'm going to I'm going to keep kind of this theme rolling throughout the show. You'll notice a few of my bold calls kind of play into this,
3:42but I just think we have a number of like really like interesting great spots like Justin Herbert getting a massive play caller boost in and Mike McDaniel.
3:52Trevor Lawrence in year two with Liam Cohen. Caleb uh Caleb Williams in year two with Ben Johnson.
3:59>> Patrick Mahomes coming back fully healthy should be ready for week one.
4:03There's just a lot of quarterbacks. And then we've got some interesting guys.
4:05John, I know you you're high on Tyler Shuck as am I. I'm very high on Kell Moore as a play caller. [snorts] We only
4:11had last year, John, we only had six passers broach 4,000 yards. I think we have at least eight or nine this season.
4:18Uh number of guys like Baker Mayfield were playing hurt last year as well.
4:22Jordan Love missed time. I'm I'm in on some passing attacks this season. And I think the main thing that this applies
4:29for this season for fantasy John in my opinion is just like I think we're going to see some receivers in that second to
4:34fifth, sixth round pocket, that four, five round range. After the first round, they're going to be some home run picks in that pocket.
4:42>> To your point, everything is cyclical in the NFL. Now, I will say I I I asked Leenian Thomasson this on the podcast,
4:49and if you haven't seen that or heard that yet, uh, go check that out, the Fantasy Points podcast, about this cyclical nature and about defenses
4:58getting answers for, you know, what's gone on the last couple of years or offenses getting answers to the defense.
5:06um he he didn't seem totally convinced that there would be answers uh by the offense that they find to get the
5:15passing production uh clicked up a little bit, but uh to your point, I I do think that the quarterback position looks very strong. You know, I've been
5:26complaining about the lack of quality play at quarterback and still prevalent in the league, but you know, wi with guys like Drake May uh coming on, you
5:35know, even a guy like Shuck in a really good environment, you know, Caleb in a really good environment as you mentioned
5:41along with Stalwartz, you know, like Brock Pury. Then you have a guy like Kyler Murray, uh, who's going to bounce back. So, the position itself looks
5:50strong. But the other thing, too, is, you know, I've been doing this forever.
5:55it. I always notice things, you know, when I'm like ranking running backs or wide receivers. There have never been more capable, skilled players available
6:05to these quarterbacks and these offenses than there are now. I mean, every team, not every, but most teams pretty loaded.
6:12So, I I could absolutely see that happening. I I'm not I'm [snorts] not like betting money on it that we get
6:18scorings up and all that, but it it it has been pretty boring. And you know, e even from a business perspective, if
6:27you're the NFL, like you take a s step back, you're like, "Yeah, this our game kind of sucked last year." Uh things
6:34have to change. And I think um I think you're on the right track with it at the end of the day. I I things are very
6:40cyclical, which by the way is one of the reasons why I've never been a zero running back guy because oh yeah, the
6:45running backs stink. I remember that one year when zero running back was all the rage and the running backs bounced back
6:52that year. Uh I remember Kareem Hunt, I believe, had a huge year that year. So yeah, everything is cyclical in the NFL.
6:58I think what we've missed is like defense has just had to completely change the way they build their teams over the last 10 years and they finally
7:05have answered with, >> you know, basically offball linebackers being a thing of the past. You have to have speed in the middle of the field.
7:12You have to have speed at safety and just like edge rushers are not these big hulking rocked up guys who stop the run
7:18anymore. They're just athletes. Um, I think that that we'll we'll see some, you know, improvements over the next couple of years, starting with this
7:26year, and it mainly centers around just quarterback play. I think this is the best I, you know, objectively, this is the best that the quarterback, you know,
7:34kind of landscape has looked in three or four years. Last year and two years ago, I I was saying the opposite. I was like,
7:40man, we've got a bunch of rookies that I'm not super confident in, and it's just taken them time. It's it's taken
7:45them time. And it's it's taken time for, you know, Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert and, you know, potentially Bo Nicks. He takes
7:52another step this season. All right, John, who is your what's your first bold take? Like I said, we're going to get
7:57increasingly spicier as this as this show goes on. John, give me your first one.
8:03>> How about Mike Pitman finishes top 10 in receptions this year? That that may be that's bold. I mean, that's bold. But if
8:14you look over at our fantasy points projections, which of course I wish I had it on on on my screen right now, but
8:20I'm pretty sure uh in fact, I know we have Pitman very high in terms of uh projected targets. I believe we have
8:29them, let's see, I got it called up here. You know, like top 15 in projected targets. And I'm I'm totally all about
8:37that. And I totally see that we've got him at 13 in targets. So, I guess that's not that bold. But then again, uh if you
8:47look at Pitman's ADP, uh where the hell is he going? Uh 45 wide receiver 454. So, there you go.
8:56I mean, that's that's that's pretty damn bold here. But, you know, when >> Pitman came out, I feel like an idiot
9:02with Pitman, by the way, because I loved him coming out. Part of that was I interacted with him a couple times. I
9:09thought he was a great guy and all that, which is true. Uh, very smart. You know, when your father played in the NFL, you
9:15know what the hell was going on here.
9:16But I've actually underrated Pitman for like multiple years. And I'm like, what the hell is wrong with me? I I I
9:23freaking love this guy.
9:24>> Uh, I've also, by the way, been a DK Metaf hater for forever. Metaf used to cry, man. Uh, but in 2025, nope. Uh, I
9:34don't know if we'll ever get that back.
9:361.46 yards per route run. Uh that was only 43rd out of 76 wide receivers with at least 50 targets. Meanwhile, his 2.40
9:46uh yards per route run DK's against zone uh was 16th best. The problem is based on the projected roles. Metaf is going
9:57to try and go back to getting more downfield looks. That's a problem with Aaron Rogers who was only 59th at
10:06quarterback last year with a 6.2 A dot.
10:10He's 46th at quarterback in deep throw percentage. So basically with 40% of their targets gone, third most, I expect
10:20Pitman, who saw about 90% of his targets in the short to intermediate area, to be their true volume receiver. I I didn't
10:29really work out that well uh with Pat Frier last year. I thought that would go a little bit better, but you know, he'll
10:36be involved, but and I do like Jeremy Bernard, but look, he's a rookie playing with Aaron Rogers and and the final
10:42piece of this and again, we're all putting little pieces of the puzzle together. I've never met Aaron Rogers. I was at his combine actually. I I've been
10:52around him, but that was freaking 20 years ago as well. But, you know, we know he's an old head. We know he's a
10:58mcurial cat, but if he finds a fellow old soul who's mature, whose father played in the NFL, I think he's going to gravitate to
11:07Michael Pitman. I think he's going to love Michael Pitman just like I love Michael Pitman because I when I met him,
11:11he's like 22 years old. I'm like just like this guy's like on my level. Like I'm like 49 over here, whatever the hell
11:17I was. And uh I feel like I'm talking to an equal. So he's a very bright guy.
11:22He's been around the block. He's good as well. You know, like Aaron Rogers is going to see that big body receiver get
11:30open and he's going to throw it to him.
11:32I mean, that's the end of the day. He's going to throw Michael Pitman a ton of balls this year. I'm with you. And I I I
11:38straight up think Pitman outscores DK Mataf. I think it's by a few points per game as well. I think he just fits what
11:45this current like, you know, this offense will be and what Aaron Rogers currently is just from like a fantas fantasy perspective, John. I mean, he's
11:52a really strong just technical value, and I think there's real upside here.
11:56Finishes wide receiver 32 last season.
11:58He had the back injury in 24, but then he had backto-back seasons where he was a top 24 receiver by points per game.
12:04So, basically, I mean, he's been a really strong wide receiver three or better and 3L the last four years. And then you mentioned, I mean, the ADP is
12:10like wide receiver 44, wide receiver 45.
12:13I think the the big reason he's such a discount is because Aaron Rogers is aging. And you know, maybe there's not
12:19like true top 12 upside with Pitman, but I think he fits extremely well with Metaf. And John, you've just been right
12:26on Metaf. You've been a Metaf hater every year. Every year that's been the right call. He has never paid off ADP.
12:32This is the cheapest he's been in a long time. Uh but he's still in my opinion, I mean, I I think Pitman should be going
12:39very close to him or ahead of him. Based on our projections, we believe Pitman outscores Metaf. And you you mentioned the target share. I mean, we have
12:46Michael Pitman earning more targets than Amika Abuka this season, then George Pickkins, then Roma Dunay, then T.
12:52Higgins. It's like this guy has always been a target earner. Maybe there's not like humongous upside where he's going to finish with like 1,200 yards. Like
13:00Metaf certainly could if he has some huge games, but Metaf has always been just a big spiked week player. Much better pick in best ball than season
13:08leagues. And I think that's kind of the case this year as well. He's just he's going to have some monster weeks, but
13:12he's also going to have some some weeks where he has three catches for 50 yards and you're left scratching your head.
13:19All right, I'll keep us moving here, John. This one is one I feel the most confident about. So, full full hand up
13:25here. This is the This is my boldest take that I feel really, really good about on this show. Brock Bowers is
13:31going to not only finish as the tight end one this season, but I think he has a 2022 Kelsey or 2025 McBride like
13:39season where he outscores the tight end too by like three, four, five points per game. It's not just the target competition, it's the increased
13:48quarterback play, much significantly better quarterback play, actual NFL play caller as well. Clint Kubak is going to maximize the talent for Bowers. John
13:59Brett told me an awesome quote from Kubak that I missed earlier this off seasonason that Kubak basically called Bowers a football robot from heaven.
14:08>> I told you that one. I told you. Okay.
14:10Okay. Okay. My bad. My bad.
14:12>> I don't think there's I don't think there's anybody there's literally no there's no higher praise that you could have for for a tight end than that.
14:18Bowowers is not a tight end though, guys. He is a wide receiver that you can play at tight end. And my dankst on
14:26Bowowers, I think I've said this on the show before, is that I mean only Rob Gronowski has scored more fantasy points
14:32per game in his first two seasons than Bowowers has. No other tight end is really even close as the tight end three
14:38in their first two years. Bowers has transcendent upside this season. I am absolutely drafting the most I can get in the second round this year. John, I
14:48typically >> I I usually don't draft tight ends this early. Like I'm very very skittish on tight ends in the first two rounds, but
14:54this is one of the first times in a long time that I felt really good about it.
14:59>> I was in on Bowowers last year, quite frankly. Uh that that did not go well.
15:04But, you know, I've always been about the upside, too. You know, like the transcendent players, you get a a crack at those like, yeah, we're going to do
15:13it. And by the way, the word robot in football circles is a compliment. Like if you're a quarterback and they call
15:23you a robot, that means you have amnesia basically. It's like you're not affected by the play. It's funny. I just showed
15:31um my daughter as you know is a film student and she's she watches like 10 movies a week and uh I just watched her
15:39and her friend were over and I I showed them the Terminator and uh it's pretty good for for a couple of kids born in '
15:4506 to watch a movie in ' 84 and you know they they liked Arnold's portrayal of a robot because nothing you know nothing
15:54bothered them. So when you're when you when your coach calls you a robot, it means like whatever happens, whatever challenges, like you're just
16:03gonna keep going because you're a robot.
16:04You know what I mean? It's a And then from heaven, of course, that means he's also like fast and [laughter] and
16:09catches the ball. Well, [snorts] yeah. He's kind of a freak show. And >> there's an excellent meme here, John. We got to turn Brock Bowers into
16:16Terminator. We'll we'll we'll we'll Yeah, we'll work. That's That's excellent.
16:21>> That is a bad game. It's like, "Don't worry, I'll be back." You know, that's a very famous mo uh line in the movie, and
16:29it's interesting. You know, I was talking to my daughter about this real quick, but uh not to go off on a
16:33tangent, but in in like screenwriting choices when Arnold first saw that it he he told Jim Cameron, he goes, "Why don't
16:43we do it? I will be back cuz I'm a robot. I will be back." And Jim Cameron's like, "Just shut up and trust
16:50me." and ended up being the most uh quoted line in the entire movie because that that humanized him just a little
16:56bit. It's like I'll be back. Anyway, yeah, I I love that. Uh there's going to be like maybe one week where Bowowers
17:04will say he needs to be back this week this year, John. I think he just he's a monster. I think he's five, six, seven
17:09catches um every single week. And little big man, I see you in the chat. You know, if you're asking if Bowowers is a
17:17steal in round three, I I think he is. I think he's a steal at the end of the second round as well. And typically,
17:22yeah, I'm I'm the same way. I I try and wait on tight end. I try to wait on quarterback. I've been saying waiting on
17:29quarterback is the call this year.
17:31Myself, Joe, and Tom, we recorded a little 20-minute fantasy football daily episode yesterday you should check out after you listen to this show. And I
17:39said the same thing. I think this is just the year for late round quarterback, but I don't think it's the year for late round tight end. I love
17:44Bowers in the into the second round. I think Mc McBride is getting cheaper too, John. And even though I think Bowowers
17:50is just like a significant tier above McBride in projection this year, you know, McBride's still a pretty decent pick there at the middle of the third
17:57round where he's kind of trending down.
17:59>> I like Warren.
18:01>> Warren is my favorite pick.
18:03>> Warren is he's a tier and honestly I think I could make the and I love Coloulston Lovelin, but I think I could
18:09make the argument for Warren over Lovelin. Significantly less target competition. It's just that that's just it. I think that's it.
18:16>> Yep. By the way, I not for nothing, but >> I was all in on holding off on quarterback last year and that was the
18:22play, right? You avoided Lamar.
18:25>> Yeah, it was basically just Josh Allen.
18:27Like that was it. Like if you didn't draft Josh Allen early, everybody else either got hurt or just didn't live up
18:31to their ADP.
18:32>> Totally. Totally. And I feel more so that way this year, by the way. Even more than last year.
18:38>> Oh my god. It John, it's ridiculous. Tom Tom and I were talking about it. It's like 21 22 deep this year. I mean, you
18:44could make a case for all the way down the board to Tyler Shuck, Malik Willis, Baker Mayfield. All these guys have
18:50low-end quarterback one upside. They could all fit.
18:53>> There's 22 guys. Yes.
18:54>> Yeah. It's a It's an awesome year at quarterback. Again, this is why I think passing rebounds this year, John. All
19:00right, we'll stick with the tight end theme. I'm I'm excited to hear your argument on this one. What's your second spiciest take this year? Gregory
19:08Dosich puts up top 15 tight end numbers. He's athletic. He's still young. He should
19:18easily settle in as a top two passing option for Malik Willis. He might be one. I
19:27think the ROI is is too good uh to pass up. He finished, granted smaller sample size among 139 qualifying tight ends.
19:37Greg Doulich second best yards per route run at 2.64.
19:44And we all know it's Malik Willis and he's going to run and they have the worst receiving core in football, which
19:50should help Greg Doolsuch. But Malik Willis has made clear progress as a passer. Um, new head coach Jeff Hafley was with Green Bay last year. Uh, the
20:01new OC Bobby Slowick comes from the sha same Shanahan Laflur tree. So, I think the scheme and philosophy will be familiar for Malik Willis. And again,
20:1294.3% catchable throw rate last year for Malik Willis. Smaller sample, microscopic sample. Uh, yeah, baby. Yes. Uh,
20:23Doulich, do it. Uh Brett Whitefield. Um there it is. He's gonna be And by the way, we're already off to a good start.
20:32Guess who is kind of Malik Willis's go-to guy from the OTAAS and all that.
20:37Like who is he clicking the best with?
20:38Gregory Dulich uh to a Tonga Valoa. You know, he's got some issues at quarterback. When Darren Waller went down, what did he do? He freaking threw
20:47it to Greg Doulich because he's a bigbodied receiver in the middle of the field who's an inviting target and he's very athletic. Uh, and he has good hair.
20:56Absolutely has good hair. Uh, so there it is. I love Greg Doulich.
21:01>> Top 10 pick in good hair leagues for sure. I like this call a lot, John. And it's not really like it's it's I think
21:06Doulich is a little underrated, but it's really just like they've got no other Malik Washington stinks.
21:12>> Out stinks.
21:13>> Yeah, 22 out is just like a field stretcher.
21:15>> One at well.
21:17>> Yeah, [laughter] down. [snorts] >> That's freaking good. Uh, Atwell stinks.
21:24Jaylen Tolbert is fine as a flanker.
21:27>> Stinks.
21:27>> I I know I know Brett and our guy Steve Oor like Caleb Douglas a little bit as a deep sleeper. I like Chris Bell a little
21:34bit as like a you know last round best baseball pick is like you know maybe this guy maybe this guy pops and you
21:40could draft with Malik Willis. But yet is free. I think he is the best like stacking partner for Malik Willis. And
21:47there's there is some upside here because there are no other target earners on this offense besides Achan.
21:53>> Hey, I'm proud of those guys for trying to make some predictions about Miami's receiving core, the wide receiver core.
22:00My opinion is as we sit here on July 9th, you might as well just pull a name out of a hat and and because because
22:07it's it's completely up in the air. The only thing that isn't up in the air is that Greg Doulich is going to be a huge
22:14factor for the Miami Dolphins. I think you're right. I I don't think there's going to be a remotely close to fantasy
22:21relevant fantasy wide receiver on this team. Uh and Doulich, you know, at a tight end you position where it's like really easy honestly for tight ends
22:30after like tight end eight or tight end nine to kind of sneak into the back end of, you know, either top 12 or top 15
22:36numbers. Doulich definitely has some upside to get there. I'm with you on that. He's he's had some he's had some moments, John, where he looked really
22:43good and you know last year I know they had Darren Waller kind of pop but you know Doulich he also had a nice back end
22:49of the last uh what eight or nine games last year he had you know 2635 yards.
22:55It's fine.
22:55>> Yeah. No, he was again guy was second in the league in yards per hour run at tight end out of 3039. Again small
23:02sample >> but he's he's matured like this is it like this is and he knows it. It's like you only get so many opportunities in
23:10the NFL. He's lucky to still be in the league quite frankly. Uh but you know, this is it. This is your golden
23:17opportunity. And I I based on what I saw, I've actually met Greg Doulich.
23:21Great guy. All these tight ends are great guys, most of them. But um this is a huge year for him to to get a bag
23:29potentially.
23:31It is. And I, you know, I think with Doulich in particular, he's never really going to play too much in line, John,
23:38but with this team, you know, he'll play big slot. I mean, there's just no there's no one there's no one else.
23:43They'll replace Malik Washington.
23:44They've they've tried that now for two years with this guy.
23:46>> I can't believe how bad Malik Washington is.
23:49>> Yeah. I mean, he had he had an opportunity last year to step up after they traded Tyreek, and it just uh it
23:55did not work out. That is for sure. All right. My We're going to pivot here.
24:00We're going to pivot to some receiver talk. My my favorite receiver to draft right now at like the end of the fourth
24:06round, maybe early fifth round, >> depending on where he goes, I think Tara McLaren not only beats his ADP. I think
24:14he has a career year and finishes a top 12 wide receiver in fantasy points per game. Obviously, snake a bit in last
24:21year by injuries. Uh he got the bag and then, you know, never really uh was able to put it fully together. Then Jaden
24:28Daniels got hurt. This is a guy, John, who had five straight years of 1,000 yards and over 77 receptions in five
24:36straight seasons. He just needs a little bit of touchdown luck to go his way. And this Washington group, I mean, he is
24:44going to clearly be the lead target >> on this team. Trayon Burks, that's a joke. I like Antonio Williams a little
24:52bit later. Uh but I mean Chico Conquo really none of these guys are going to be pushing Mclloren too too hard for
25:00targets. I think he has a career year in terms of his targets. He'll get back to that 120 130 range that he's always been
25:07at in his career. I think he has the potential to push for 140 targets on this team just because of the lack of
25:13target competition. This is the least amount of target competition, John, that he's had in a long time. He is getting a
25:19little older. That is my only concern.
25:20He'll be 31 this year, but everything sets up for Mclloren >> to have a career year.
25:26>> Totally with you. Uh I almost uh did this one as well. Um real quick, I'm I don't have it in front of me, but let's
25:33go back to 2024 cuz I I pretty sure we all love McLaren in 2024 here at Fantasy Points. And I know
25:41>> you loved McLaren and I know Scott I mean Jaden Daniels was Scott's guy. It was all of our guy. So we were all over
25:46that. I would have loved Jaden Daniels if I didn't have worry about his concerns about his availability, which were legitimate in retrospect here. But
25:55um back in 2024, I'm pretty sure McLaren was a wide receiver one uh in in total scoring, which I'm I'm pulling up now.
26:02>> He was I think he was wide receiver 14 off the top of my head. I mean, he was >> seven
26:07total scoring.
26:08>> Okay.
26:09>> In points per game, it wasn't as good.
26:13So, he was only wide receiver 16. uh in points per game. You know, uh I I was out last year, by the way. I was all in
26:22in 2024, out in 2025. Not bragging, I'm just giving a tip. Whenever you get a veteran receiver with anything close to
26:28a contract impass or hold out and miss time, forget it. Just don't do it. Cuz that guy tends to get hurt. Uh he missed
26:37twice as many games last year as his previous six seasons combined. So, no hold out concerns. He looks re-energized
26:47in the new offense. David Blau is a first-time play caller. That is a little bit of a concern. But the other thing is
26:53I never liked Cliff Kingsbury. It's one of those things where I'm like, I can't exactly tell you why I think he stinks.
27:00I just know he stinks. And he does. Um, one of the problems is the offense was too static. You know, he's lining up at
27:08X, you know, every freaking snap and it makes things a little bit more predictable. So, he's going to be moving around the formation. Uh, and by the
27:16way, god forbid Jaden Daniels goes down again. He did click pretty well with Marcus Mariota. So, that's that's worth noting, I think. So, yeah, I'm with you.
27:25I'm all in on McLaren.
27:26>> That is a part of my reasoning for my love for Mcccluren this year is like it is one of the best backup quarterback
27:32situations in the league. Mariota acquitted himself very well last year. I thought he played pretty like pretty well like top. I mean, he almost like in
27:39my opinion deserves another job. Like one more chance as a starter. I thought he >> Oh, I don't know about that. But I mean,
27:45great backup. [laughter] >> I mean, you look around the league though, John, look at what we've dealt with like last couple years. Like
27:51there's there I know I'm bullish on, you know, teams bouncing back this season, but there are still some some pretty bad
27:57quarterback situations right now. I mean, >> uh we'll see, you know, what the Vikings do can do with Kyler Murray. I mean,
28:04this is a team that certainly needs it.
28:06I I think CJ Strad kind of sinks. I think Arizona's in a rough spot. I think the Jets are in a rough spot. I think
28:12the Panthers are still in a rough spot.
28:15Uh Browns are in a rough spot. Like there's there's Mariota's not anything special. Let's be very clear about that.
28:20But he is a a little bit of a floor whereas some teams they don't have a backup quarterback. My entire thing
28:26though with just real quick to round out my point, Jane Daniels, John two years ago, his rookie season, he was sixth in
28:33catchable throw rate behind only Joe Burrow, Tua, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff.
28:37He basically tied Gino Smith. The problem with Gino Smith is he also threw a he has a ton of turnover worthy
28:42throws. He's top 10 in turnover worthy throw rate. Jane Daniels was bottom five in turnover worthy throw rate. So he makes a lot of good decisions and he
28:49throws a lot of catchable passes.
28:51Obviously last year was just a little bit of a lost year dealing with multiple injuries. He fractured his rib early in
28:56the year. Had to be super painful. Not only running, but you know, trying to throw the ball as well. I am all in on
29:02Terry Mcccluren. All right, John. Third spicy take. Bold take. Go bold. What do you got here? Well, first and foremost,
29:13I was exactly wrong on the Viking quarterback situation last year. I do think that there were a lot of mitigating circumstances. There's some
29:22weird [ __ ] going on. The offensive line was decimated. It was ugly. However, I also have a 30-year track record of
29:31getting this team uh very very right, including, for example, as I Dante Co Pepper, you know, uh I ranked him at QB3
29:40in 2000 despite zero starts and he crushed uh behind Manning, I believe, and Curt Warner. But, uh, despite being incredibly wrong, um, and look, it was a
29:5114th round pick last year, McCarthy, but I also did like Hawinson. Um, but my gut again is telling me that this Kyler
29:59Murray thing is going to work out. I mean, that's it. Bottom line. Um, change of scenery. He's been knocked down a
30:05peg. He's also playing for one $1 million. That's all he's freaking making. So, that really helps out the rest of the roster.
30:15uh their offense. So, again, I I don't have, you know, any data because the offensive data for the Vikings sucked.
30:23Uh Kyler Murray's data last year sucked.
30:26So, we're we're just spitballing here.
30:28But again, the Vikings offensive I mean, I need to start going to church and saying prayers for uh Christian Daras. I
30:35mean, this guy's killing me here because I mean, he he's he's the best left tackle I've ever seen. And well, Gary
30:41Zimmerman was pretty damn good, but that was like 30 years ago. But he's the best left tackle they've had in decades. I I
30:47think he could be a top five left tackle, maybe even like top three if he's healthy and, you know, feeling good
30:55and all that. You know, I like O'Neal at right tackle. I know he's in a little bit of a contract impact. I think
31:00Donovan Jackson's very good. So, I think their offensive line is going to be good. Look, we all know, I mean, he's
31:07going to run uh there. So, that will help. Obviously, they're going to have to make adjustments.
31:13I I I'm a little iffy on Okonnell just in general, I have to say. But look, if anyone thinks the Vikings offense sucks
31:22that like, okay, like talk about recency bias, you know what I mean? Um the the components are in place for them to
31:31crush. Um Jawan Jennings, that was uh that's a tremendous third receiver. Um, Addison, Jennings, and Jefferson.
31:41That's one of the top three trios in the league. Hawinson has been a freaking buzzkill, but he's still capable at the
31:49very least. Uh, and the running back room isn't going to be dominant. I I think, by the way, Jordan Mason is going
31:55to be a bigger factor than people think.
31:57But look, at the end of the day, Kyler's going to stay healthy. He's going to be focused. The Vikings and Okonnell are
32:05kind of Mr. every they're every other year a little bit. It's all set up for him to get he's going to trick another
32:12team. Hopefully, it's not the Vikings to give him another big contract after 2026. It's going to go well. Kyler
32:20Murray will be a QB1 in 2026.
32:24So, you rewind the clocks. Two years ago, Sam Darnold joins up with the Vikings. And [laughter] there he is. He's going to be throwing
32:34freaking lasers to Justin [laughter] Jefferson. Uh yeah, he is a tiny guy.
32:39But you rewind the clocks. Sam Darnold before he joined the Vikings, he was a career 3.5% passing touchdown rate with like a 6 and
32:49a half YPA. Kyler Murray is like he's been better than that his entire career.
32:53All of his rate stats have been better than that. Then you mention the fact that he is amazing on scramble drill.
33:00He's amazing at extending plays. Uh, you know, prior to last year, John, he finished as a top 12 quarterback in four
33:06straight seasons and it was like easy money every year. Like he was QB8 every single year. You could just kind of set
33:13your watch to it. Uh, I I'm with you on Kevin Okonnell. I've got some questions about him, too. Our guy Ryan Pagnetti,
33:19who uh he used to work for the Eagles and the Jaguars, he put out a tweet a couple days ago looking at pass rates on
33:26second and 10 after an incompletion. And typically you want to pass in those situations on second and 10, long down in distance, kind of get back maybe to
33:34third and short or even get a first down. Kevin Oonnell surprisingly was like second to last in pass rate. His pass rate was like 38% on second and 10.
33:42And I was like hold on is is chaos is he actually kind of the fake sharp? Like I hate saying that.
33:48>> I think he is. I think it's >> he has moments though, John, where man, like >> when in ter when he's in a groove and
33:54he's scheming plays well and he's in a rhythm, >> he's among the best play callers.
34:00>> Among the best, but when the chips are high, the stakes are high, like the playoffs playoffs. Um, he shits the bed
34:09is what he does. He shits the bed in the playoffs.
34:12>> Yeah. I don't know if he I don't know if he's modernized enough between the second and 10 long down pass rate and
34:18he's always been super super pass heavy inside the 10. You know, this is typically where you want to be like 50/50. You want to be able to run and
34:25pass the ball inside the 10. Uh he's he he does need to scheme up a little better run game uh in the red zone, take
34:32a little pressure off of off of Kyler.
34:34But I I love this call. You're you're on Kyler. Scott's on Kyler. Definitely makes me feel a lot better. And he's QB
34:4017 QB18P.
34:42uh work.
34:43>> Yeah. I unless it's just like either he gets hurt or is legitimately terrible, like worse than last year, >> this will be his job all year.
34:51>> You know what bothers me about Okonnell real quick? Not to go off on a tangent and I'm I'm I'm going to bring up
34:56>> Please take us on a tangent. I I love the John tangents.
34:59>> I'm going to take the I'm going to be on this J.J. McCarthy obsession for like uh the next decade. It's like when JJ
35:05McCarthy suffered the injury, I'm watching Oonnell in his press conference and and look, we we have a
35:14filter to handle coach speak. He was eusive in his praise. And this is this is after a couple of weeks of training
35:24camp, that first preseason game where he looked pretty good and the OTAAS that year. Okay. So he he was exposed to JJ
35:33McCarthy for multiple months, couple of weeks in camp and one training camp. The injury occurred and go back and and look
35:42at what Okonnell said about JJ McCarthy at the end of that year. Okay. Well, I'm basing a good amount of my analysis on
35:50McCarthy coming into 2025 on those comments. He hasn't played since then.
35:55So what the hell changed? because apparently you it seemed like we got to 2026 and all of a sudden Okonnell hated
36:02JJ McCarthy. So what the hell happened?
36:04And he kind of distances himself. It's like see this is the problem with the Vikings. It's an organizational they don't know what the hell they're doing.
36:12The Wolves mean well, but they're too distracted by their other businesses >> that they let them kind of do whatever they need to do, the people that they
36:21hire. And there's there's problems within that organization. I mean, we didn't even know who the general manager was just a couple of months ago. Just
36:28just just um Yeah, KC hated that JJ missed a practice for the birth of his son. I mean, I think I'm going to go on McCarthy side
36:37on that's one freaking practice. I mean, >> I'm going with McCarthy side on that one, too.
36:42>> Yeah. [laughter] >> Yeah. You better believe that. But at the end of the day, I I think with McCarthy, it was just um a few things.
36:50This team could not run the ball effectively last year. They had periods and pockets where they could run the ball, but he really needed a good run
36:57game to kind of help even out this offense. Uh the defense was okay last year. I mean, they you know, Flores is a
37:04great coach, I think. Um great defensive mind.
37:07>> It's just they they it was a few different things. They they put a lot on McCarthy's plate, like I said.
37:11>> They did. Yeah.
37:12>> Two they've always KOC's always been a pass heavy coach, which in general I agree with. You want to be more pass
37:17heavy than runheavy. Uh but they just desperately desperately needed to take some I don't know some of the pressure off of him. Uh you know
37:26>> the regression that's forthcoming in offensive line like again it's like uh I had a house and not to go off personal here. I had a house um
37:36burned down two years ago and at the very least I'm like well guess what it's not burning down twice. You know what I
37:42mean? Uh so we're good. uh their offensive line, they they literally cannot have as many injuries as they had last year. It's just impossible.
37:53>> Yeah. Few things should be a lot better.
37:55It should be the offensive line health.
37:57It should be uh you know, the quarterback play. Uh you know, McCarthy last year, man, I mean, he was third last third from last in catchable throw
38:04rate, 69%. Not nice.
38:07>> He was off. There's no doubt he was off.
38:09Michael Pennix and Shadur Sanders were the only two that had a lower catchable throw rate here at fantasy points data.
38:15I think >> by the way McCarthy the one thing I did get right is he was a big factor with his legs had four touchdowns on the
38:21ground in 10 games.
38:22>> It's one of the things he did well is extend plays.
38:26>> Yeah. So he projected to to get like six touchdowns on the ground. So I think that bodess very well for Kyler.
38:35>> I agree. And I think this is his job. As long as he does not get hurt, as long as he does not get hurt or just plays
38:41significantly worse than last year, >> this is his job. So John thinks Kyler finishes as a top 12 quarterback in fantasy. I'm going to keep us going
38:51here. I think Brock Perie finishes as a top five quarterback in fantasy football. Not only that, I think he also throws a careerhigh in touchdowns. His
39:00previous careerhigh was 31. I think he gets into the high30s this year. I think he pushes Joe Burrow as the top like
39:07kind of, you know, pocket quarterback in the league. Getting George KD back fully healthy by like October, November is huge. Mike Evans is a touchdown machine.
39:16I think Ricky Pieraw, John, you've just sold me on Persaw. I I was kind of underrating him before you and I spoke
39:21about him. I think Persaw, he has a chance to really break out in year three. And then obviously Kyle Shanahan is just the quarterback whisperer. You
39:29know, Brock Pury has been a monster of efficiency in his career. He's got a career 6% touchdown rate, nearly nine yards per pass attempt in his career.
39:39He's thrown for at least a 7% touchdown rate in three out of four seasons.
39:44>> Getting Trent Williams back fully healthy for one last ride. I am just wheels up on Brock Perie. You look at
39:50his last couple of seasons, John. I mean, he's like QB7 in fantasy points per game, but he's he's QB12 and ADP. We
39:55do this every year with this guy that he's like locked in top eight every year, but we still draft him at like
40:01QB12, QB13. I'm I'm saying I'm putting my stamp on it. I think he finishes top five this season.
40:06>> I've been in on Brock Birdie every year uh starting from year one. The only reason this year I'm not like really
40:14just pounding the table. It's availability. That's it. Uh but as I mentioned um on a on a previous stream, uh I don't know if people realize this,
40:22but you know, I lost I went 11 and four on on preseason props that I put out last July. And one of the losses was
40:30pretty touchdowns. Hello. Uh he almost got it in nine games. I mean that's unbelievable. So he was in nine games
40:40>> his 17 game touchdown pace was 43.
40:44That's 37.5 passing and 5.5 on the ground. That is the upside. If
40:53things if we're in a if if it's like football nirvana for the ners this year, that's the upside. 43 touchdowns for
41:01Brock Birdie.
41:02>> I Yeah, I I think you're right. I think it is like a 40 touchdown year. Burrow had what? 46, I believe, two years ago
41:09in 203, I believe.
41:10>> 40. Yeah, something like that. I mean, that's his upside. And I actually misspoke. Brock Party is not QB6 in fantasy points per game in the last
41:16three years. He's actually QB5. He's outscored Joe Burrow by onetenth of a point over the last three seasons. The only two five quarterbacks, excuse me,
41:23four quarterbacks who have outscored him in that span are all the running guys.
41:26It's Josh Allen, Lamar, Jaylen Herz, and Jane Daniels. I mean, it it is unbelievable how cheap this guy is. And I think he had he's in just for an
41:33absolutely monster season.
41:36>> Yeah. And the the word on KD is pretty encouraging right now.
41:40>> It does seem good. I saw some videos of him at his tight end university. He's kind of It seems like a little ahead of
41:46schedule. That's always like I I hate saying stuff like that, but I mean >> Well, they're doing like it was a
41:51cutting edge >> Yeah.
41:54>> uh surgery or procedure that was done to deal with this Achilles. It's a new It's a new thing that has apparently put him
42:00a little ahead of schedule that that we're conditioned uh to believe in uh based on the history of these injuries.
42:07>> Yeah. Jason Tatum, a basketball uh stud for the Celtics, he had the same Achilles injury. I guess >> he went to the same doctor
42:15>> and he blew out his timeline. Like he fully came back.
42:18>> Yeah, there you go.
42:19>> Um >> that's like the new ACL then, you Yeah, KD's a little older, but you know, between the new surgery and we're living
42:27in this age of peptides, John, where uh people people are doing >> they're they're beating some crazy injuries uh with with this new
42:34technology and new medicine. Um I don't think KD's going to be back fully healthy by September, maybe not even October, but November and December when
42:42the money is made in fantasy football, that's when he's going to be hopefully back to fully healthy and balling.
42:47>> Jake Todd is pretty decent. I this it really kind of hasn't mattered for Pertie to be honest with you. Like they
42:53didn't have IUK all of last year. Uh KD, you know, KD missed time with a hamstring injury as well. Obviously Pertie then got hurt,
43:00>> but like M. Jones was a, you know, fine like mid-range QB, too. Like this this offense is just it it just produces. By
43:07the way, I've always been a Christian Kirk fan and he's pretty good. you know, when when he came out, >> he was like, you know, second, third
43:17round pick [snorts] >> inside, maybe a little outside guy, you know, guys like that are kind of a dime a dozen, you know, might might hit,
43:26might not, you know, like, but he's been pretty good. You know, Christian Kirk is isn't bad at all. I don't know. He'll
43:32probably won't see as much uh snaps as he's seen, but I I like that. I I like Christian having Christian Kirk there.
43:38The guy makes plays.
43:40>> Yeah, he's been good. um last couple years I still think he had some juice left in the tank the last you know last
43:45year but yeah he's going to be like a 40 to 50% snapshare player I bet a little bit of a chain mover uh but to start the
43:52year I mean I think he might have to play a little more because they're they're probably going to stick an 11
43:56with uh with KD out uh 49ers are seventh in implied points per game. They're basically half of a point per game
44:03behind the Bills, half a point, excuse me, half a point per game behind the Cowboys as well. And again, Dak Prescott
44:11is going about a round or two ahead of Brock Party right now in ADP. I think that's a mistake. Perie finishedes top
44:17five in fantasy points per game. John, we have not talked a single running back on this show. That's about to change
44:24very quickly. We've got a lot of bold takes here. Three running backs we're going to talk through. Why don't you get
44:30just started with your running one of your first running back takes?
44:34>> Never been before, but I'm I'm I'm in and I'm feeling Mr. Chuba, Hubard, uh, Mr. Every other year. And, uh, it's even
44:43years. We want them. And, yeah, it's, uh, 2026. That would be even. And, you know, that's true. But I'm not hanging
44:51my hat on that. I'm hanging my hat on the fact that this has all been due to injuries essentially. Uh, so last year,
44:59well, the year before he had that grade two calf strain in December, uh, that shut down a breakout season. We're only
45:07two years removed from a huge breakout year from Chuba Hubard. Uh that opened the door last year uh for Rico Dattle.
45:14He he suffered another calf injury last year early which did open the door. Uh Hubard admitted that he came back too
45:20quick. So I do believe that it's very plausible that a clean bill of health this year means that you know we're
45:26good. Uh the Panthers slightly below average in term of rushing volume, but they I I still think they're a running team with Bryce Young. They block it up
45:34relatively well. 13th in yards before contact per attempt, 10th best stuff rate. Uh, you know, they use their number one pick on a tackle. I know Icky
45:46uh is going to be uh sus as they say uh for maybe even the whole year, but they've got including Icky, they got
45:55four viable offensive tackles uh on the roster. Um so I feel pretty good about that. And again, it, you know, even if
46:06Jonathan Brooks, I mean, running backs last year for the Panthers had 400 plus carries and 90 plus targets. So, is Jonathan Brooks really getting 200 plus
46:15carries coming off two ACL's? I I'm I'm not counting on that. So, I feel very very good that Hubard is going to get at
46:22least 225 touches. And by the way, it's week one.
46:28Who's out there in pass pro on in passing sit? It's Chuba Hubard. They're not going to play Jonathan Brooks early in the season out there in in passing
46:35situations. So, Hubard is just one season removed from an R RB15 season when he had 293 touches and 11 touchdowns. So, I think he's a great
46:46pick. I mean, that's it. Uh, so I think he'll finish as an RB2 and you can get him in the seventh round. And that's
46:54that's the thing. Is it going to be like, oh my god, no. Oh, but I think at the end of the year, you're going to
46:59look back and say, "Yeah, that was a pretty damn good pick I made at Chuba Hubard in round seven."
47:03We're two years removed from Chuba being RB7 in yards after contact per carry. I mean, he was really freaking good 2024.
47:11I believe he was also top 10 in EPA per attempt. He's a two-face. He's a fantasy two-face one. And it's not his fault.
47:20He's a guy when he's not right physically, he stinks.
47:24But when he's good, he's good.
47:27>> I think it was the injury last year, John. Uh, you know, I think the one big thing that's gonna hold Chuba back has
47:34nothing to do with Chuba. It's Bryce Young. He's averaging 180 yards per game passing in his entire career. We really need Bryce to take a big step forward. I
47:43have not personally seen that. I have not gotten there with Bryce Young, but I'm with you on Hubard being a really,
47:49you know, pretty decent RB2 this season.
47:52Uh the volume should definitely be there and I'm just with you on Jonathan Brooks. I I think at this point a good
47:57season for him would be like he gets seven or eight carries per game and stays fully healthy and is a change of
48:02pace to Hubard. I think there's like a 25% chance that he takes this backfield over. I thought he was awesome coming
48:08out of college, but I mean two ACL tears in three years. There's a chance that he's not even close to the same player
48:14that he once was at Texas before all these injuries. Um I'm I'm with you on Hubard being a really strong volume
48:20player. I mean, he was the RB13 in 2024.
48:23RB13, borderline one.
48:25>> I think we should also have some confidence in Dave Canales. I mean, Dave Canales can't play quarterback for the Carolina Panthers, but Dave Canales can
48:34do the best job almost humanly possible uh to put all the players in the team in a position to succeed. That that's
48:43that's his deal. He he he'll simplifi simplify things and just basically put his players in best position to succeed.
48:52I've heard that from multiple people including Rashad White who told me that multiple times in interviews like he just is good at putting guys in a good
49:02spot basically. And look, not surprisingly, they kind of made they made the playoffs last year. So, you know, Dave Canales is
49:10pretty good.
49:12I think he's a very good coach. Uh Bradick will take over play calling duties this year, but this is still going to be Canales's offense. I think
49:18it's just one of those things where Canales will have his hands, you know, and his fingerprint all over the offense, but he's, you know, just trying
49:24to take a step back, give Edzik the play calling duties, but he's always had a good run game. Canales has always been
49:30able to run the ball with the Bucks, with the Panthers, with good offensive line play. He had a really strong offensive line when Trist, especially
49:36when Tristan Worst was healthy back with the Bucks. And you know, this Panthers offensive line is is getting better.
49:42It's still not great. Uh they're going to be able to run the football this year. I am with you on that one. One
49:49team that I think is going to lead the NFL in rushing this year. I think the Chargers straight up lead the NFL in
49:56rushing. I think Omarian Hampton not only finishes in RB1, not only finishes like top eight in fantasy points per game, I think he straight up outscores
50:04Ashton Genty this season. I right now Genti is going at the back end of the first round. Hampton solidly kind of in
50:11the middle of the second. He's starting to come up a little bit especially in sharper leagues over at the FFPC in an
50:17FFC. Some high stakes leagues. I think he's going to continue to trend up as everyone kind of gravitates more towards where I'm saying. Uh Hampton, by the
50:25way, I don't know how bull this this is because Hampton outscored Ashen Genty last year. He he did it in nine games.
50:30He averaged 15.1 PPR points per game.
50:32Genty was around 14 and a half. Hampton outscored Bejian Robinson. Uh if you compare their rookie seasons as well, he scored slightly more fantasy points per
50:41game, maybe two or three ten of a more of a point per game in PPR. Hampton just has massive, massive league winning
50:48upside. This Chargers offense with Mike McDaniel is going to fully maximize his talent. Hampton was top five in success rate, top five in yards per carry on man
50:59gap concepts. You better believe McDaniel is scheming up some sick run concepts to get Hampton in space downhill. He's an incredibly tough
51:08tackler, bruising player. Doesn't have that like make you miss ability that Achan does. So, it is a different type of play uh for for Hampton. But I'm just
51:17very very bullish on the Chargers this year between the play caller uh improvement between, you know, this defense was really good last year, John.
51:25Like really freaking good. There's going to be a lot of good game scripts and I'm just in big in bigly in on the Chargers
51:32this year. [laughter] They got a 9 and a half win total. It is right there. Tied with the Broncos, tied with the Bears, tied with the Cowboys,
51:40tied with the Bengals. Like I I know we do this every year with the Chargers where we get really excited about them,
51:45but I am I'm very big on Hampton this season. I think he's going to lead teams to fantasy football champions.
51:52>> For what it's worth, >> I I don't get high on the Chargers. like I get high on life. No. Um I have not
51:58been really that high on the Chargers like uh you know and >> Justin Herbert's your guy though. You like Herbert.
52:03>> Oh no. This year I am. That's my point.
52:05>> Oh yeah. Okay. Okay.
52:06>> You know this year I feel really good.
52:08Like um I'm feeling it. There's really no doubt about it. I'm I'm feeling it.
52:12Well, I'm also feeling as we move along here to uh we got three more to pop out.
52:19You know, I I'm an agist, but every once in a while I I'll go with an old head if the situation uh dictates. I think it's
52:28fair to say that Mark Andrews is slowing down. Average separation score did decline in 2025 compared to 2024. Of course, in 2024, it was outstanding. And
52:39they lost Isaiah likely and my guy Charlie Kohler. They're going to try and break in a couple of young tight ends,
52:46basically rookies. Uh, and they're not going to do crap. Uh, those two rookies.
52:52Uh, Durham Smite is going to be the the inline guy, uh, because he's a pretty good blocker. Uh, so Mark Andrews will
53:01be in the slot as usual. Uh, he ran 70% of his routes from the slot last year.
53:06His average separation score was still the ninth best among 69 tight ends with 100 routes. Uh, the win rate was seventh
53:15best. It was better than Kyle Pittz, Coloulston Lovelin, and Trey McBride. 31 in September. Uh there is a potential out in the contract after 2026, but they
53:25just signed him to this big three-year extension this past December with 20 million guaranteed. They are counting on him bigly [laughter] this year. I mean
53:36because Lamar I mean we got some interesting you know young receivers like Sarat I know is you know starting to gain some momentum even though camp
53:46is not kicked off yet but Rashad Baitman is just so boring. Uh I mean Lamar is going to be looking for his boy Mandrews. So Mark
53:57Andrews will be a top 10 tight end this year.
54:01>> I'm with you on this and I'm I'm going to take it a step further. I'm finishing up my tears article that should be out
54:05on fantasypoints.com here in a few weeks. I actually ended up with Andrews at tight end 7. I I love him this
54:11season. Yeah. Spicy.
54:13>> Yeah. I So I I think he's right after Pitts and Fannon to me. Uh there's huge touchdown upside. The big thing I keep
54:20coming back to is like back in 21 and 22 when Andrews was a top five, you know, tight end [snorts] every single week.
54:26You know, he was running a route on like 80% of the drop backs. John, that should be back this season. Isaiah likely's
54:31gone like you mentioned. and Charlie Kohler's gone. It is going to be a fulltime route share for Andrews and they extended them. I mean, they they've
54:38got to get the most they can out of this contract. I know maybe he is trending down. A lot of the numbers underneath
54:44the hood, like you mentioned, the separation score uh are trending down, but you know, you don't have to pay for that. The ADP is very, very nice. Tight
54:50end 11, tight end 12, 100 picks into your draft. Uh if you're waiting on tight end this year, I know we said, you
54:57know, we're all over Brock Bowers. I'm with you on your enthusiasm for Tyler Warren, but I think this is a a really
55:02good year to kind of wait and get into that Mark Andrews pocket late in your draft.
55:08>> It's a good sign we're all sharing a brain because I did not confer >> with you guys because I kind of go on my
55:14own, you know, uh and I I think it's always a great sign when when multiple people on staff are with me. And it
55:20seems like we're kind of in unison a lot of dudes this year. That that is usually a good sign. That is usually a very good
55:27sign. and we'll see if we're on the same page with this one. I think AJ Brown finally has an apex season, John. I
55:34think he not only finishes as a top 12 wide receiver by points per game for his fifth straight year, I think he finishes
55:40as a top three wide receiver in fantasy football. I think it'll be either Chase or Puka as wide receiver one or two. I
55:47think AJ Brown pays off massively in the middle of the second round. Uh still just 29, gets a huge quarterback upgrade
55:55between Drake May and Jaylen Herz. For what it's worth, I have always been a Jaylen Herz fan. I've been a Jaylen Herz
55:59truther my entire career. It's paid off big time for me. But Drake May is just better. Last year, Drake May was seventh
56:06in catchable throw rate, sixth in EPA per drop back. The big difference between the two is they're both very good against man coverage, but May has
56:14just been better over the last two years against zone coverages. And obviously, that's what you're going to face in the NFL 70 to 80% of the time at this point.
56:21Brown has been a massive target earner over the last two seasons. He's got 36% of the first read targets and that's
56:28playing with Devontto Smith and Dallas Goddard. I personally do not believe Romeo Dobs or Kahan Booty or Hunter Henry are even close to that, you know,
56:36level of target competition. And this Patriots offense last year, John, they handed the keys over to Drake May. Josh McDaniels called the fifth most pass
56:44heavy offense and pass rate over expectation at plus 5%. Eagles have obviously never even come close to that.
56:50They've never been a top 10 passing offense and pass rate. Everything is lining up for AJ Brown to have a monster
56:56season this year. I think he pays off in a big way. And I I think I'll have as much as I could possibly get my hands on
57:02with Brown, especially when I take a running back in the first round. Coming back, RB1, get your hammer in the first
57:09round and then get your wide receiver one and AJ Brown in the second.
57:13>> Now, our our projections Maven Chris Wet just chimed in. I was wondering uh there it is. AJ Brown is the worst. I was
57:21like, is that a fake? Is that a fake Chris Wack account? But no, >> we got a we got a we got a special uh
57:27special uh guest here with Chris dropping in the chat. Wow.
57:31>> Well, I'll split the difference Chris.
57:34>> I'll split the difference and say that a I think it's going to work out very well. I think the marriage between May
57:40and Brown is going to be fantastic. Um doesn't hurt that Brown apparently was a Patriots fan thanks to uh Tommy Brady.
57:47You know, we looked at a lot of the routes that May excels at are the same ones that Brown does. Um, he he'll be
57:55fine. I I'm not going to go as far as you. I do worry a little bit about Josh McDaniels wanting to be cute and fancy
58:02and working in Matt Collins and, you know, rotating in Kyle Williams and Deario Douglas and, you know, maybe Eli Rarin, you know. So, a lot lot of mouths
58:12to feed, but at the end of the day, he's not dumb. Uh, AJ Brown is going to get the ball. Um, I don't know to the level
58:18that you uh are in. I'm I'm not going to go a bold prediction on it, but I do believe just the basic point that AJ
58:26Brown this year is going to go well.
58:28It's going to work in New England. So, I'll give you that.
58:32>> We mean, we need to have Chris on the show. Chris and I usually kind of share a brain. We're very both like extremely
58:38analytically driven, but I think we should do a show, Chris. Uh, you and I we'll hash out some of our disagreements. Uh maybe in a couple
58:45weeks we'll put together a list and and put together a a little show of just some disagreements that he and I both
58:50have and we'll we'll go at it. Uh I I just I think Drake May is just such a stud. I think he's a massive, you know,
58:56talent elevator. And yeah, sure, maybe AJ Brown has lost a step. He's got degenerative knees apparently. Um if he's lost a step, Drake May can
59:04certainly find a way uh to regain that step for him because he was so good last year. John, get us out of here with your
59:13spiciest, your bold take for this season. It's another running back.
59:18>> By the way, um I I want to spill the beans. I got the order wrong. Okay, so that you know like like these are not
59:27necessarily ranked for me. Just just just so you know. [snorts] >> But last year um I know we talked about I liked uh Jaylen Warren last year. I
59:36was I was high on Jaylen Warren. Well, it worked. He was RB17. Uh he's like I think he's a good pick in round seven,
59:44it's a lot like a little bit like Chuba Hubard last year. I'm like I if I'm looking for my RB3 in round seven, it's
59:49Jaylen Warren. Uh and he was like RB17 and when it wasn't incredible. Uh but that said, Jaylen Warren has rushed for
59:57100 yards only four times in the last four seasons. something that Rico Dael did for Mike McCarthy in four of his
60:08last five games, the Cowboy in 2024.
60:13Then, of course, as we know last year, I mean, Jaylen Warren has literally no chance of running for over 200 yards
60:20because he's not going to get the volume most of the time. Rico, they'll feed him the ball. He got a 206 yard game, 183
60:26yard game, 130 yard uh game.
60:31You know, he's back with McCarthy.
60:33McCarthy's back in Pittsburgh. He's Mr.
60:35Pittsburgh. He loves running the rock.
60:38Uh Dowel is going to try to become, I believe, the first player in NFL history to run for a thousand yards in three
60:44consecutive years for three different teams. We are projecting him to only finish 20th in carries, 29th in rushing yards, 27th in catches, but I still
60:55think he is a small value is like RB 35.
60:59By the way, um RB30, he was RB35 like just like a month ago or six weeks ago. So, I think the Pittsburgh
61:10Steelers, they got to change it up because last year was horrible. Uh so, what they do? They got in a new head
61:17coach. They're going to have a new lead back and a new go-to receiver in Michael Pitman. So, Rico Dael uh will be Suave
61:26uh this year and he will be let's let's just say he's an RB. That's it. You you draft him as an RB3 in round eight, but
61:35he produces like an RB2.
61:38>> I'm with you on him outproducing Wadd or excuse me, not Wadd Warren on the ground. Warren should get that kind of
61:43like Kenny Gainwellesque from last year, but I mean natural role.
61:48>> I mean, Rico's still caught nearly 40 balls in back-to-back seasons. He got 39 receptions in back-to-back years. He's got some workhorse upside. And if Warren
61:56were to get hurt, man, I mean, we we would probably be projecting D is like a our top 15 RB every single week if
62:03Warren were to miss time. So, there's that contingent upside there as well.
62:06I've been warming on Dowel as well. I'm I'm kind of I don't know. I've I've leaned a little bit towards Warren in my
62:12drafts this year, John, but I think he might have just sold me to maybe bump up Dow even more. John, this was an awesome
62:18show. Tight 60 minutes on 12 bold predictions this year that are going to help you win your fantasy football leagues. Again, use code fantasy. That's
62:27just one word fantasy. Get yourself 10% off any planet at fantasypoints.com.
62:32Make sure you subscribe to the channel so you never miss a video from myself or John or any of our fantastic staff here.
62:38And if you disagree or agree with any of our big bold takes this year, sound off in the comments down below. We love to
62:45hear from you. Until next time, we will see you at the top of the leaderboards.