From the video
he's the first player up on this list. Right now, he's going off the board as the RB7... if you end up investing a first-round pick on him, he probably feels like he's going to give you back mid-late second, early third-round value based almost entirely on the situation that Miami finds themselves in right now... I think we're going to see his touchdown numbers plummet. I think we're going to see the number of overall targets cuz Malik Willis will take off and run a lot of those times.
STACKED’s take
First-round ADP unjustified; system change and QB downgrade project second/third-round output.
Currently going off the board as RB7 (first-round ADP), but Deebo Samuel projects mid-late second to early third-round value based on Miami's situation change. Last year Achane was end of second/early third and could return first-round value; this year the inverse is true—first-round investment likely yields second/third-round output. Deebo Samuel cites system fit concerns: Mike McDaniel departure removes the coach who optimized Achane's unique skill set (similar to how Kyle Shanahan maximizes Deebo Samuel); new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik (from Houston) did not prioritize the run game; Malik Willis as mobile QB will check down far less than Tua Tagovailoa, reducing Achane's target volume; Miami's bottom-five offensive line, 4.5-win projection, and weak receiver room (no Tyreek Hill, no Jaylen Waddle) create a low-volume, low-efficiency offense. Deebo Samuel expects touchdown numbers to plummet and overall targets to decline significantly.
De'Von AchaneRB · MIAPlayer page — value, ADP, projections, and every insight