BDGE Fantasy Football

Running back for the Dallas Cowboys currently at ADP of RB17, but Vegas projects him at 1,000+ rushing yards and 9.5 rushing touchdowns. The source views him as significantly undervalued relative to Vegas and his actual role; he's being drafted at the 3–4 turn in full PPR leagues despite being the clear goal line and early down back attached to a very high-scoring offense. The source compares his profile to Josh Jacobs a few years ago—a younger, bruising back with elite touchdown opportunity and role security.

The source prefers other receivers over DJ Moore in early drafts but identifies him as a value target three to four rounds later due to his attachment to Josh Allen's arm talent. While the Bills receiver room is crowded (Kade King, Khalil Shakir, Jalen Coker), Moore's ceiling could surprise if he captures 125–130 targets; the source notes Vegas is pricing this as a possibility.

Puka Nacua is by far and away the clear primary receiver in the Rams offense. When he and Davante Adams are on the field together running routes, targets go to both at high rates, with both in the top seven in target-per-route-run rate last year, but Nacua is the established clear one in the hierarchy.

Adams is an incredible weapon inside the 10-yard line; the Rams exposed defenses repeatedly with this role last year. His target-per-route-run rate was seventh highest in the NFL last year. When he and Puka Nacua are on the field together running routes, targets go to both at high rates. The Rams lack a legitimate wide receiver three behind Adams and Nacua, so when both are on the field, it's primarily these two getting targets. The source is a fan of drafting Adams as a veteran wide receiver option in the middle rounds. However, Adams' yardage projection is not very high, especially relative to Nacua, and the source does not expect Adams to be the primary receiver in Los Angeles this year—Puka is by far and away the clear one in the Rams receiving hierarchy.

Despite Green Bay's conservative medical approach, if Kraft is cleared for week one, the source has no concerns about his return. He could smash and represents a buy-low opportunity; the source is not overly worried about his injury recovery and views him as having smash potential after an unfortunate injury last year.

DJ Moore is now in Buffalo, which was expected to open up more opportunities for Rome Odunze in the Chicago offense.

Allen Robinson, who had a similar midfoot injury in year nine of his career, messaged that he was never the same player after it and retired the following year, suggesting a cautionary parallel for Odunze.

Rome suffered a stress fracture in the midfoot that is not fully resolved and something he will have to learn to play with, raising concerns about his long-term performance.

Second analyst likes Brooks' potential and received a direct message from him saying 'Don't count me out. You don't know me,' indicating his determination to prove doubters wrong.

The Eagles kept Brooks around and used a second-round pick on him despite his ACL tear, demonstrating significant organizational confidence in his ability to contribute.

Analyst loves Brooks' draft price at 10th-12th round, where he's only competing with Chuba Hubbard for backfield opportunity.

Brooks suffered back-to-back ACL tears early in his career, with things sounding positive out of camp but facing an incredible uphill battle in his recovery.

Despite back-to-back ACL tears, analyst remains bullish on Brooks' breakout potential, citing his explosive running style, vision, balance, and contact balance similar to Aaron Jones, and loves his draft price in the 10th-12th round.

Branch has no competition to be the slot wide receiver in Atlanta behind Drake London and is an explosive, very fast player who could see significant target volume and route running as a rookie.

Willis is a very strong QB2/3 pick in superflex leagues given the Dolphins' expected negative game script that will lead to frequent passing situations.

Achane will be very involved in the Dolphins offense and will benefit from dump-off passes in the second-half pass-heavy schemes when Miami trails.

Dulcich is the 242nd player off the board with a clear path to lead or be second on the Dolphins in targets, as the team is expected to trail frequently and run pass-heavy schemes in the second half, potentially catching 60-70 passes despite limited touchdown upside.

Malik Willis is a very strong QB2/3 pick in superflex leagues given Miami's expected negative game script and heavy passing volume.

De'Von Achane will be very involved in Miami's offense and will benefit from dump-offs in an offense expected to trail and pass heavily in the second half.

Greg Dulcich at pick 242 has a real opportunity in Miami assuming Darren Waller doesn't return; he could lead the team in targets or be second at worst in an offense expected to trail and pass heavily.

Terrace Marshall's fantasy price is too steep this year despite an incredible rookie year; the analyst is not taking him as a top 13-15 fantasy WR in the Bryce Young passing offense.

Jaylen Coker is a good ball player positioned as the WR2 in Carolina at pick 131; from weeks 13-playoffs last year he had higher target share, red zone target share, yards per route run, and first read share than Terrace Marshall.

Tucker Kraft is expected to be healthy this year after missing the second half of last season, which should increase passing volume for Jordan Love and the Packers offense.

Christian Watson is expected to be healthy this year after missing the first half of last season, which should increase passing volume for Jordan Love and the Packers offense.

Jayden Reed is expected to be healthy this year after getting hurt immediately last season, which should increase passing volume for Jordan Love and the Packers offense.

Jordan Love is a high upside QB sleeper at pick 128 who had a top-35 all-time fantasy QB season in 2023 with 579 attempts; if the Packers return to 575+ pass attempts with healthy weapons (Watson, Reed, Kraft, Golden), he could have a big year.

Jordan Love, Green Bay quarterback at pick 128, is being discussed as a sleeper pick, with the source noting he was a phenomenal fantasy quarterback a couple of years ago.

At pick 119, Kyler Murray is a no-brainer QB2 in Superflex leagues and a solid QB2 in one-quarterback leagues, as he's falling to a much better situation in Minnesota with Kevin O'Connell, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson compared to his previous Arizona offense where he was going QB10-11.

At pick 119, Kyler Murray represents good value as a mid-round quarterback option. He will beat out J.J. McCarthy for the starting job in Minnesota and now has a good offensive-minded coach in Kevin O'Connell, plus elite weapons in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, along with a good offensive line.

Croskey-Merritt had one of the better rookie rushing seasons by a sixth or seventh-round pick since 2000 (tied for 3rd in rushing TDs with 8, 4th in carries with 175, 5th in rushing yards with 805). With Chris Rodriguez gone and Jayden Daniels healthy, he should lead the team in carries and be the goal-line back in an improved offense, projecting for 13-15 carries per game, 60 total yards, and approximately 8 rushing touchdowns.

Despite being drafted by Philadelphia, Stowe is not expected to make a huge impact as a rookie and will likely be a tight end three running some set of packages infrequently in specific areas of the field.

With A.J. Brown now on another team, Goedert benefits from a significant spike in involvement when Brown is absent. Historical splits show Goedert averaging almost 15 PPR fantasy points per game, 5.5 receptions, and nearly doubled receiving yards when Brown doesn't play, positioning him as a strong tight end one option.

Eli Stowe is not expected to make a huge impact as a rookie, likely serving as a tight end three running packages infrequently in specific areas of the field for the Eagles.

DeVonta Smith benefits from the Eagles offense when other top receivers are out, with the removal of Kevin Patullo expected to improve the offense's overall success rate.

Dallas Goedert at pick 116 benefits from Kevin Patullo being out of the Eagles offense, with specifically designed red zone plays that should continue, though a repeat of his career-high touchdown total is not expected.

Tucker Kraft is projected to be the number one target in the Green Bay offense.

Christian Watson is the clear top receiver in Green Bay's offense tied to a very good offensive-minded head coach with a friendly scheme, with potential for continued fantasy success after his breakout last year.

Matthew Golden at ADP 121 (round 10-11) is a strong value target if he's running 80-85% of routes as the starting outside receiver, with potential for a fantasy breakout similar to Christian Watson's last year.

Jayden Reed is easiest to project as the slot and design plays guy, but there's a real chance he ends up being just a slot-only player, which limits his fantasy ceiling despite being arguably the Packers' second-best receiver after Christian Watson.

Josh Downs has a clear path to opportunity with Michael Pittman now in Pittsburgh and Auden Tate Mitchell traded to New York, positioning him to finally showcase his full three-down skill set as a WR4/5 at ADP 106.