Harrison Jr. is riskiest board player; LaFleur changes help but QB/target competition remain.

Harrison Jr. is the riskiest player on the board due to multiple compounding factors. He underperformed in 2025 with no real material changes going into 2026, making him a 'big time fade' similar to his fade status heading into 2025. However, the arrival of LaFleur as OC and Kyler Murray's departure make the upside case easier to make for a fourth or fifth year breakout. The systemic risk of the Arizona Cardinals offense, target competition from Trey McBride and Michael Wilson, and uncertainty around Jacoby Brissett's sustainability (he may not repeat 400-yard passing games in year two as defenses adjust) compound the downside. There's a real chance of Carson Beck starts, which the speaker views as a significant downside risk. Harrison Jr. has a 63% catchable target rate since joining the NFL, the second-lowest in that span; the speaker attributes much of the downside to environmental factors rather than talent. Under new coach LaFleur, he will be moved around more and used in creative ways beyond just outside X receiver. Projected to see 7–10 targets per game, turning into 11–12 targets, 1,300 yards, and red zone opportunities if the Cardinals pass 35–40 times per game.