Matt Harmon on A.J. Brown
From the video
I think that I we saw some natural signs of decline in A.J. Brown's game last year...he was playing with a hamstring injury, right? At the beginning of the year...77 percent success rate versus man, 76 versus zone, and 75 versus press...they're good those are really good results. Uh but they're not as good as peak A.J. Brown...your charting of A.J. Brown 2025 isn't a great picture... 28% success rate on the corner, 49% success rate on the nine, 62% on the post. These are not... That's not good...he's still like a 54th percentile success rate versus man player...my opinion is just obviously we are in decline watch, of course. It's just he's a 29-year-old receiver with a history of lower body injuries and we saw a dip in his in his film last year.
STACKED’s take
A.J. Brown shows clear decline signs at 29 with injury history; 54th percentile vs. man coverage.
Matt Harmon observed natural signs of decline in A.J. Brown's 2025 game; he played much of the season with a hamstring injury before improving in the second half. His success rates versus man (77%), zone (76%), and press (75%) in the back half were better than his poor early-season numbers but remain below his peak performance. His 2025 reception perception charting shows significant decline on downfield routes: 28% success rate on corner routes, 49% on nine routes, and 62% on post routes—metrics Harmon describes as 'not good.' Even the full-season reception perception profile shows 54th percentile success rate versus man coverage. Harmon places Brown on decline watch heading into 2026 at age 29 with a history of lower body injuries. Reception perception comparables include Terry McLaurin's 2024, DeAndre Hopkins' Houston season, DK Metcalf 2024, and Romeo Doubs 2025—useful players, not atrocious—suggesting the decline may not be as severe as raw 2025 charting indicates, though the dip in film is clear.
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