VideoFrom Matt Harmon
Expectations For A.J. Brown And Drake Maye In 2026 | Reception Perception The Show
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
19 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 1, 2026
Published
Sat, August 1, 2026
9
Player insights
8
Players mentioned
Topics
Drake MayeA.J. BrownDeVonta SmithEli RaridonJulian HillMack HollinsReggie GilliamRomeo Doubs
Player analysis
Player insights
A.J. Brown
NegativeProjection0:00
Matt Harmon observed natural signs of decline in A.J. Brown's 2025 game; he played much of the season with a hamstring injury before improving in the second half. His success rates versus man (77%), zone (76%), and press (75%) in the back half were better than his poor early-season numbers but remain below his peak performance. His 2025 reception perception charting shows significant decline on downfield routes: 28% success rate on corner routes, 49% on nine routes, and 62% on post routes—metrics Harmon describes as 'not good.' Even the full-season reception perception profile shows 54th percentile success rate versus man coverage. Harmon places Brown on decline watch heading into 2026 at age 29 with a history of lower body injuries. Reception perception comparables include Terry McLaurin's 2024, DeAndre Hopkins' Houston season, DK Metcalf 2024, and Romeo Doubs 2025—useful players, not atrocious—suggesting the decline may not be as severe as raw 2025 charting indicates, though the dip in film is clear.
Insight pageDeVonta Smith
NegativeRole14:00
DeVonta Smith operated as the X receiver in the Eagles' first two years with A.J. Brown, while Brown played the Z-slot role. This historical alignment is referenced as a model for how the Patriots may deploy A.J. Brown in 2025.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveProjection0:34
Drake Maye's charting shows a sophisticated throw diet for a young QB: very few screens and flat routes (unlike typical young QBs), heavy in-breaking pass diet (17% curls, 13% slants), and strong go-ball production (10% route participation with 58.5% success rate). His curl routes were his best pattern at 84% success rate, indicating excellent accuracy on intermediate breaking routes. Matt Harmon asserts Drake Maye is currently better than Jalen Hurts and specifically excels at throwing nine routes and go routes, which positions him to unlock A.J. Brown's short and intermediate route potential rather than forcing him exclusively into the vertical X receiver role. Harmon projects Drake Maye could improve in year three of NFL with A.J. Brown connection, identifying specific route-type improvements: dig routes at 6.7% (wants increase), post routes above average but room for growth, and slants/out routes where A.J. Brown excels (83% and 84% success rates respectively). Drake Maye's out route was lowest-graded route in 2025 at 60.5% success rate; A.J. Brown's 84% success rate on out routes provides complementary strength. Horizontal breaking patterns (slants, out routes, dig routes) will be easier if A.J. Brown is used more as Z receiver.
Insight pagePositiveRole15:00
Drake May's route-throwing profile from his college film shows a heavy emphasis on in-breakers and outside routes, which aligns with the Patriots' receiver acquisitions. His three most-thrown routes are the curl (17.6%), slant (13%), and nine (10%). The Patriots have built the offense around these strengths by acquiring Romeo Dobbs and A.J. Brown, both of whom run high volumes of slants, curls, digs, and in-breakers. This is part of Josh McDaniels' offensive philosophy to get vertical and play outside while maintaining inside route versatility. Harmon notes May has the arm strength to throw out routes, corners, and come-back routes, and believes the out-breaking routes are the area where May can improve most.
Insight pageEli Raridon
PositiveRole16:16
Eli Raredon was a day-two draft pick by the Patriots, selected because Nate Tice valued him highly. Matt Harmon projects Raredon as a potential inline tight end in the Patriots' heavier personnel packages (12 and 21 personnel), supporting the team's shift toward more physical offensive looks.
Insight pageJulian Hill
NegativeInjury16:16
The Patriots signed blocking tight end Julian Hill as part of their declared intention to play heavier personnel packages, but he is out for the season due to injury.
Insight pageMack Hollins
NegativeRole12:32
Matt Harmon uses Mack Hollins as comparison point for potential A.J. Brown role in 2026 Patriots offense; Hollins functioned primarily as Z movement player leveraging blocking ability rather than traditional X receiver. If A.J. Brown adopts similar Z-movement role, he would provide much-improved receiving talent compared to Hollins' 2025 production, even if A.J. Brown is in decline. Mack Hollins operated as a Z-movement player in the Patriots offense, leveraging his blocking ability. Matt Harmon uses Hollins' 2024 role as a baseline comparison, suggesting A.J. Brown in a similar Z-slot role would be a much improved receiver.
Insight pageReggie Gilliam
NegativeRole16:46
Reggie Gilliam was signed as a fullback who can also play inline, supporting the Patriots' shift toward heavier personnel packages in 2025. He is part of the Patriots' multi-faceted approach to 12 and 21 personnel looks alongside Eli Raredon and Hunter Henry.
Insight pageRomeo Doubs
PositiveRole15:15
Romeo Dobbs' route profile (slant, curl, dig) aligns with Drake May's most-thrown routes and the Patriots' offensive scheme. Harmon projects Dobbs will run in-breaker routes in 12 and 21 personnel packages, positioning him as a complementary option to A.J. Brown (the out-route player). This role fits Josh McDaniels' philosophy of acquiring receivers who can play outside and run inside routes, and Dobbs is expected to see increased usage in heavier personnel packages.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Drake May, you hear these numbers, you look at the charts, and then now he's got a brand new guy in A.J. Brown. How
0:07does that all match up?
0:08>> I've, you know, made no bones about it.
0:11I think that I we saw some natural signs of decline in A.J. Brown's game last year.
0:17>> Look at the release.
0:17>> There's your separation.
0:19>> Great route.
0:19>> Stutter and go gets by clean.
0:21>> That is unbelievable.
0:22>> May be the greatest catch I've ever seen.
0:26>> We continue our our preseason quarterback wide receiver matching game.
0:30Today it is Drake May and A.J. Brown.
0:34When you take a look at Alfredo's charting here for Drake May, very few screens, very few flat routes, which I thought to be really interesting,
0:44especially for a young quarterback where I mean, Shurmur talked about it last week, right? Like Shurmur Sanders was throwing a ridiculous amount of screens
0:51and flat routes.
0:52Drake May, they're asking him to make a lot of big boy throws, very few just kind of sort of layup targets here. Um
0:59and when you look at the charting overall, really heavy in terms of in-breaking pass diet, 17% curls, 13% slants, but also threw a lot of go balls
1:10as well, 10% um route participation uh in terms of the go balls with excellent success rate, might I add, on
1:18those nine routes at 58.5%.
1:22Um there is no question. We just talked about how uh heavy in-breaking pass diet, Matt again 17% of his throws were on curl routes, and
1:34you know what? That was his best route when throwing it as a quarterback, 84% success rate throwing on those curls, which is a really, really good number. I
1:43guess I I'll throw it to you now. So, Drake May, you hear these numbers, you look at the charts, and then now he's
1:49got a brand new guy in A.J. Brown. How does that all match up?
1:55>> Well, obviously the Brown conversation kind of has to be rooted in what version of A.J. Brown we are going to get.
2:02Um I've, you know, made no bones about it. I think that I we saw some natural signs of decline in A.J. Brown's game
2:09last year. Uh if you've read the full profile on the site, you know that I go into detail about that. And um some of
2:15the ways that he, you know, where we saw most of the drop-off, but also how we saw him kind of improve in the second
2:21half of the 2025 season, and I do think that's something to note here.
2:26Um I've seen other people put the splits out as well. Uh like just from a production standpoint, what they've seen on film. That is something to note that
2:33he was better in the second half of the season because he essentially, like he was playing with a hamstring injury, right? At the beginning of the year, he
2:43came with a hamstring injury, then he sits one game before the bye. Um so he gets like 2 weeks off. He comes back and
2:48was definitely better in that second half of the season. Now his success rates are, I mean, in the first 7 weeks
2:52of the season were really, really poor.
2:54We're talking about like bottom stuff.
2:57Uh but then in the back half of the year, definitely better. 77 uh percent success rate versus man, 76 versus zone,
3:03and 75 versus press, which are obviously are better than the than the full profile 2025 numbers. And, you know, there's they're good those are really
3:12good results. Uh but they're not as good as peak A.J.
3:15Brown. So my my my take on A.J. Brown is that we are going to get just kind of some version of a
3:22diminished player than what we got at his peak. It's just the question is how much, which is always the tricky part
3:27with wide receiver decline as we talk about pretty much ad nauseam on the show.
3:31Um so even still though, I think if we're looking at A.J. Brown from what he was in 2025, Yeah. It is funny that you
3:37mentioned the curl route being Drake Maye's best success rate pattern because that was what everybody was so pissed about about A.J. Brown running a lot of curl routes
3:48in Philadelphia last year. Remember that was a whole like Quez Watkins just calling up hitches, hitches, hitches.
3:54That's kind of what they ran a lot by the way in Philadelphia throughout the course of AJ Brown's uh you know, tenure
4:00there because it is a little bit of what the quarterback likes to throw. That's one thing too I I like I've seen this be
4:06Well, he's going and and you you highlighted it, right? Drake May really good on go routes. I I mean, we haven't done a Jalen Hurts profile yet.
4:13Alfredo hasn't written up a a Jalen Hurts profile yet, but >> Yeah.
4:17>> I mean, previously Jalen Hurts actually is a really good go route thrower. Like that's one of the balls he throws really
4:23well. So, you know, that could even be like I I think if Drake May is a better quarterback than Jalen Hurts, I'm I'm
4:28okay saying that. I don't know where you are with that. I'm okay saying that I think Drake May right now is better than
4:32Jalen Hurts, but still like that's kind of a going from a strength to a strength even if obviously Jalen Hurts wasn't at
4:39his best last year. I think what's going to be more fascinating is just like where does um he fill in throughout the rest of the
4:47route tree as opposed to kind of the the go and curl route uh for AJ Brown because I would argue that and I know
4:54the natural thought is like and I want to unpack this further with you. I would the natural thought has been like well,
4:59AJ Brown is just going to come in here and be like the vertical X receiver of this offense. I'm like, does he have to
5:04be? Because in that way he's going to be running Yeah, Drake May is awesome at throwing these nine routes, these go routes, but
5:11I mean, I think I think there is no doubt like AJ Brown has diminished in that like even in the magical kind of
5:17like you want to split the season in half.
5:19You know, this is it's just my opinion.
5:21I there's still a clear decline in his ability to separate on nine routes and go and in the go routes and stuff like
5:27that. I think he's still really good short and intermediate and I wonder if there's a way they can lean into that more this year with Drake May
5:34and how they compare that together as opposed to like AJ Brown has to be the on ball outside go route receiver. They kind of got
5:41other guys to do that. I I would like to see them lean more into their connection on some of those short and intermediate
5:47routes.
5:47>> Well, I do think that that should be part of what they do just to kind of sort of get keep the defenses honest, right? And
5:55honestly, to kind of sort of keep A.J.
5:57Brown happy, too, you know? Like I think a lot of his frustration was that he wasn't getting a lot of these
6:03down-the-field routes. So, if they can kind of draw up a couple of these plays where he actually does get a shot play
6:10um at least once a game.
6:12>> Sure.
6:12>> I think we just went I think we just went too many weeks without seeing a shot play down the field uh for A.J.
6:18Brown. I mean, just ask him to go make a play sometimes, you know? Um and I do think that Drake May will allow for that
6:25to happen, too.
6:26Um that being said, your your charting of A.J. Brown 2025 isn't a great picture. It's certainly not a rosy picture, although maybe it is rosy cuz
6:35it's all red downfield. Uh 28% success rate on the corner, 49% success rate on the nine, 62% on the post. These are not
6:44That's not good. Um >> Yeah.
6:47>> I'm I'm still holding out some kind of hope that a lot of that was motivation-based and or at least was
6:53influenced by motivation um and surroundings and just how much he was into it mentally. Um but I tell you what man
7:02it wasn't that long ago where this guy was absolutely crushing it downfield, right? Like you just pop on his 2024 tape [laughter] and his 2024 reception
7:09perception data and you're like, "Godly, this guy was incredible uh down the field." So, can he tap into that?
7:15>> Can it You know what, Matt? Can it be somewhere in between? Cuz I'd say what, if it's somewhere in between in 2026, I
7:21think Drake May and and uh A.J. Brown will have a pretty good and successful connection.
7:26>> That's the That's the That's the hope is that it's somewhere in between. I I don't And I mean, look, you look at the
7:31trade compensation. If the Patriots thought they were getting 2024 A.J.
7:35Brown, they traded like a first and a third in this year's upcoming draft and and like they're they're it's that's it. But
7:40remember, they gave a 2028 first. So, um I think they're even acknowledging they're not expecting to get They're not expecting to get peak A.J.
7:48Brown for 1 year, and certainly not for multiple years. And I don't I don't think Patriots fans should be uh expecting that, either. You know, in in
7:56in that regard, I think that there is a lot of ways that this can absolutely work out for them here in 2025. Now, I mean, I just find like
8:03the work I mean, you know, from a fantasy standpoint, like he's going, you know, super high. Like, there there's drafts now where he's going like ahead of Drake
8:11London. To me, I I just think I wish he was around cheaper, then I would think about it from a fantasy
8:16standpoint, because I just think like we're essentially that price is just assuming he is going to be back to peak powers and everything like that. And I I
8:25just don't want to assume that. I To me, I think the motivation argument, and I know people totally disagree with me,
8:31and I You clearly disagree with me. So, the motivation bros can be on James Co's side here. I just think to me, it's
8:37like, you have no idea. Like, you have no You have no clue >> if that's the reality. But, I think you
8:41can definitely What you can point to, though, is the injury. And I think if you're like trying to cope on the A.J.
8:48Brown stuff, and how he's still going to have this big year, and you know, and where I'm going to end up being wrong on
8:53this, or just like the concern could be unfounded that he's in decline, is that the first half of the season was
9:00so injury-tainted that it makes the final product look really, really not not what you would want. And Look, by the way, even
9:07the full uh reception perception profile, he's still like a 54th percentile success rate versus man player. Like, that's not totally in
9:14decline. If you look at some of his um reception perception like full season, you know, comparables uh in the day in
9:21the in the comparison tool, like, it's just kind of X receivers basically at every phase of their career, right? Like, there's there's It's kind of all over
9:30the place, but there are still some, you know, useful players. Um, you know, like Terry McLaurin's 2024 season. Like, there's a DeAndre Hopkins
9:38like Houston season in here.
9:40Um DK Metcalf in 2024, uh ironically his now current teammate Romeo Doubs in 2025.
9:48So, it's like these are guys that aren't, you know, atrocious. It's just what's the next step? That's the thing was is there Can he hold out at this
9:54level this year? Because I then I think that's good. I think he can I think it will be worth it for the Patriots. Um I
10:00think him and Drake Maye will have a really good connection. I think Drake Maye actually could um you know even improve maybe uh in in year three
10:08in the NFL with some of these like some of the throw like I would love to see more dig routes for for Drake Maye.
10:14Like well, we've got 6.7%?
10:17I could I would love to see that go up, you know? Um post routes is definitely above average, but I'd love to see more
10:23of that type of stuff. Slants like AJ Brown even last year when he was a diminished player >> Mhm.
10:30>> in my opinion still ran a slant on 21% of his charted routes and had an 83% success rate. One of the better marks in
10:35the league. Like that's a that's an area where I think the this version of AJ Brown can make Drake Maye better. Like I've always
10:43thought that Drake Maye can throw a good outbreaker, but that was his lowest relative to uh average success rates. That was his lowest
10:53graded route for us last year was the out route at 60.5%.
10:57AJ Brown even again in this diminished form in the full season profile had an 84% success rate on out routes.
11:03But I think all of those routes I'm highlighting here >> Okay.
11:07>> like the horizontal breaking patterns, which by the way can be really good for production.
11:13All of those are going to just be easier if he is used more as the Z receiver and and less as the X. And I think that's
11:21something that I keep coming back to here because we just know this over the course of studying receivers with Reception Perception since from 2014 to current.
11:30Like one of the ways to ease these signs of decline when they start to come in is a position switch to
11:37more not necessarily just like, okay, let's kick this guy into the slot. I'm not just saying that, but moving them off ball and making them more of a Z
11:43receiver, I think just really helps this stuff.
11:46And and like James again, this is my point. Why does AJ Brown have to be the X on this offense? They have three guys
11:53right now as we are currently taping this on, you know, Monday, July 20th.
11:58>> Mhm.
11:58>> They have three guys on this roster who were X receivers when they played last year in Romeo Dobbs, Keishan Booty, and
12:06Kyle Williams.
12:07Like I think all three of those guys probably could also stand to not play X as much as they did last year.
12:14>> Yeah, I was just about to say.
12:16>> But but can it be like 50/50, you know?
12:21>> Yeah.
12:21>> I mean especially like Kyle Williams obviously we'll see how much he even plays.
12:24>> Whatever.
12:25>> But he's definitely playing. I hope he plays, but we'll see.
12:29Dobbs I think could be useful if he's kicking around the formation, whatever.
12:32>> How about Mack Hollins, baby?
12:34>> I mean you know Mack Hollins will be there doing his thing. Um but yeah, I mean like Keishan Booty, like make him He was a very much a
12:39sacrificial X receiver last year and him and Drake Maye had a really good connection on those go routes. Keep that up. Keep him on the roster. Keep him I
12:47know he's kind of like a guy that's maybe wants to be traded or they've kicked about trading, whatever, but keep him on the roster.
12:52Sacrificial X receiver. Keishan Booty, it worked for you last year, but you probably need like a better like if if if AJ Brown is just
13:00in the Mack Hollins role, which was mostly like a Z movement player cuz they lean into his blocking ability, you're getting a much improved receiver
13:08even if AJ Brown's in decline in my opinion than what Mack Hollins gave him last year. Like and and here's the
13:13thing, this isn't just Matt Harmon comes up with a little theory about how AJ Brown could be used.
13:19We've seen AJ Brown be used this way before.
13:22>> [laughter] >> We we've we've seen it. We've we've got we've got examples. Not even just and I know I've pointed this out before, but
13:27in A.J. Brown's last season with Mike Vrabel with Titans in 2021, he took 68.9% of his sampled snaps outside, which was the second lowest of his
13:37career, and 61.6% of his snaps off the line of scrimmage, the highest rate of his career.
13:43In Philadelphia, almost first year there, almost the exact same. Career low 68% sampled snaps outside.
13:5054% snaps off ball. Then second year in Philadelphia, 74.8% snaps outside. Okay, it goes up, but he took 56% of his sampled snaps off
14:00the line of scrimmage. Like, those first 2 years DeVonta Smith was the X receiver, A.J. Brown the Z slot.
14:06Like, what Let's just just do that again. Like, what >> Yeah, go back to that.
14:10>> I think we get a better version of A.J.
14:12Brown in that way, so like lock me into Patriots Beat Reports, baby. I want to know where the >> [laughter] >> receivers are lining up, you know?
14:21>> Sure, sure.
14:22>> Like, let me let me see that. I mean, I'm telling you, man, like that's going to be really important when it comes to
14:28what is A.J. Brown going to be this year and everything like that. Like, dude, I it's my guy Taylor Kyles, bro. Like,
14:35he's really he's one of the best people that covers the Patriots. I'm going to be locking in on his camp reports cuz I
14:39know he's a sicko. He's going to be he's he's going to be talking about where these receivers line up and I'm going to
14:43be paying attention to that.
14:44>> I love it. I love it. Again, going back to this quarterback wide receiver matching data that we've got here. Um
14:49and obviously you guys can do the research on your own, receptionperception.com.
14:53Drake May, if you take a look at his three most thrown routes, not including the check down, it is the slant, it's
15:00the curl, two in-breakers, and then it's the nine, right? So, the curl was his most thrown route that he had at 17.6%,
15:08the slant at 13%, the nine at 10%. When you look at A.J. Brown 2025 profile, his uh again his
15:18three of his most actually his yeah, his top three routes that he ran, slant, curl, and nine.
15:26It all kind of sort of lines up. And again, in fourth place was the dig route, right? So, that was another
15:32in-breaker there. Then you took a look at Romeo Dobbs. What are his three most run routes? Well, it would be the slant,
15:38the curl, and the dig, right? So, again, it's it's interesting. I I think New England came in and said, "All right,
15:45man.
15:46Get me some guys that could go play outside, and get me guys that could play outside and also run a lot of
15:51in-breakers." This is going to be the kind of sort of I think they just lean more into what Drake Maye does well,
15:57which is again, throwing some of these in-breakers. So, man I'm And he And listen, he's got the arm strength to to throw a bunch of out
16:05routes and and corners if they want to come back routes if they want to, but man, I just think again, this is part of Josh
16:12McDaniels' offense. Get some guys that could play outside, that could get vertical, but all that can also run inside as well. And shoot, man.
16:21They have certainly surrounded Drake Maye with a couple of these guys in Romeo Dobbs and A.J. Brown.
16:26>> I'm really excited to think about it.
16:27I'm like a I think they'll play a lot more 12 personnel and and they'll get heavier this year. Remember, they signed blocking tight end Julian
16:33Hill, who unfortunately is going to be out for the season, but that was obviously like a declared intention. Eli Raredon was
16:41Nate Tice really loved Eli Raredon. They took him in the draft on day two. He's a guy that I think could be an inline
16:46tight end at time. Hunter Henry can do some inline stuff. Like just placing Austin Hooper, I think will be an upgrade there. They bring in Reggie
16:52Gilliam, who's like a fullback, and he could play some inline as well. So, I think they'll be in more heavy personnel
16:57stuff. And like in that sort of package, I actually kind of like the idea of, you know, Romeo Dobbs running some of those
17:05in-breakers you talked about, and A.J.
17:06Brown being the out route player. And like that's the explosive option that they go to is A.J. Brown as the off-ball
17:12Z receiver in a in a in a in a 12 or 21 personnel look. And like that's how they access more explosive plays this year.
17:20I'm definitely paying attention to cuz based on the charting data and Alfredo's profile, I do feel like that like they those outbreaking routes
17:29are the area where Drake May can improve the most. There's obviously there's obviously way to build a strength on a strength and I think that that that that
17:36can happen here, too.
17:37But because AJ Brown was still so successful in those outcuts and I think teams will look to make more use of explosive plays from condensed
17:46formations in I think that's going to be a theme of this year. I do think that can be where AJ Brown is is really
17:51impactful for the Patriots. But again, my opinion is just obviously we are in decline watch, of course. It's just he's a 29-year-old receiver with a history of
17:58lower body injuries and we saw a dip in his in his film last year.
18:03>> Yeah.
18:03>> Just the question is what's the next step? We're on that decline watch, but I think the best way to push off that decline
18:10is to not have him run so much X receiver stuff. I mentioned some of those off-ball rates and everything. He he took 85% of
18:19his sampled snaps as an outside receiver, which was the highest since his second season in the league, AJ Brown did, and
18:2772% snaps on ball last year, which was again the second highest of his career since his second season and without a doubt the most
18:37since he's been a Philadelphia Eagle.
18:39The only season of the four over 70%. So, I I'd like to see a role change for AJ Brown. I think that can
18:45help him not decline as much this year.
