Footballguys on Garrett Wilson

Fourth-round WR1 talent with 33% target share and QB upgrade positioning

The source identifies Wilson as a fourth-round receiver with WR1 talent available at pick 37 overall. Despite ranking no lower than sixth among receivers in targets in each of his first three years as a 2022 first-round pick, Wilson failed to produce a fantasy campaign better than 20th on a points-per-game basis, primarily due to New York's quarterback woes. Wilson's 2025 performance through seven games before a knee injury provides a strong baseline for 2026 upside: he posted four touchdowns and 14.2 fantasy PPG with a massive 33 percent target share (second highest), and his 16.6 fantasy points per game through seven weeks ranked ninth among all wideouts. The source attributes his prior underperformance to quarterback instability rather than talent or role. With Geno Smith representing an upgrade over the Jets' 2025 rotation of Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, and Brady Cook, Wilson is positioned to unlock WR1-level output. As the clear top target on the Jets with supporting receivers combining for only 92 career catches and two touchdowns, Wilson led the team with 395 receiving yards last season despite playing only seven games due to a knee injury. The source notes that 'Talent, Circumstances, and Price Converge' with Wilson at cost, opening the door to potential WR1-level output in Round 4.

Garrett WilsonWR · NYJPlayer page — value, ADP, projections, and every insight