Do These Seventeen Stats MATTER? (07/22 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Antonio Williams is noted as a potentially nice young player in Washington's receiving corps, which is otherwise weak and incomplete; he could be part of the target distribution alongside Terry McLaurin.

Robinson finished top five in PPR points per game in consecutive years (2024-2025), joining McCaffrey as one of only two backs to do so. He caught 55 passes last year. Dave Richard notes Robinson is one of the first two picks in every draft this year and is unlikely to regress given his elite talent and usage.

Dave Richard argues that Bowers has an easier path than McBride to hitting the 16 PPR points per game threshold needed to justify a 2-3 turn pick, due to the talent around him in the Raiders offense; Bowers could lead his team in targets and has unicorn-level upside.

Bowers has an easier path to smashing compared to McBride because of who's around him in the offense; Dave Richard notes he could absolutely smash in terms of production.

Jamie Eisenberg expresses concern about the Carolina Panthers' offensive line injuries affecting Bryce Young, noting that Young does not have good stats when pressured—worse than most quarterbacks. Eisenberg suggests the line injuries could force Young to get the ball out faster, potentially limiting the offense and lowering upside for all Panthers wide receivers.

Dave Richard notes that Bryce Young is not the type of quarterback that feels like he's going to help his receivers elevate their game, which is a concern for Panthers receivers like McMillan.

Bryce Young operated in a severely constrained offensive environment in the last five games of the season, with Carolina running the fewest or second-fewest plays in football and averaging only 27.5 pass attempts per game. This poor environment made it difficult for any receiver to produce fantasy value.

Dave Richard expresses concern about ranking both CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens as top-12 wide receivers, citing a historical stat showing that of 17 wide receiver teammate duos finishing top-12 in PPR points per game from 2014-2024, only one (Stefan Diggs and Adam Thielen in 2017-2018) repeated as top-12 the following year. However, Richard still ranks Lamb in the top 12 because he likes Lamb better and thinks he is safer than Pickens. Richard also notes that the Cowboys' defense should be considerably better this year with Quinn and Williams for the full season plus four to five new defensive stars, which should reduce track meets and help both receivers.

Adam Azer reports that Miami rookie wide receiver Chris Bell is on the non-football injury (NFI) list after tearing his ACL last year at Louisville. Azer expresses hope he is wrong but notes there is no reason for the Dolphins to rush him back in what will be a rebuilding year.

Dave Richard presents a cautionary stat on Christian McCaffrey: of 17 running backs with 400+ touches in a season since 2010, 10 (about 60%) followed up with either an injury, a PPR per game decline of at least 20%, or both. Only seven of the 17 did well the following year, and just two of those seven were 28 years or older. Richard notes that McCaffrey is 30 years old and suffered significant injuries in his previous two seasons before 400-touch years, making him nervous to draft McCaffrey at his current ADP.

Dave Richard is nervous drafting McCaffrey at current ADP due to injury history: he suffered significant injuries that sidelined him for one or two seasons after his first 400+ touch season in Carolina, and again was limited to four games in 2023 going into 2024. At age 30, this pattern of recurring injuries is concerning; the history is not on his side.

Among 17 running backs with 400+ touches since 2010, 59% either got hurt or declined by 20%+; however, 41% did well or stayed close to prior production. If McCaffrey declines 20% from last year's production, he'd average 20 PPR points per game, suggesting better than 50% odds he hits that floor. His ceiling is staying healthy and maintaining 20 PPR points per game; his floor is elevated above zero given injury history.

Despite injury concerns, Dave Richard still ranks McCaffrey as a first-round pick in his rankings, though he personally won't draft him at the price other managers are paying. The distinction reflects confidence in his talent and upside if healthy, even while acknowledging the elevated risk.

Dave Richard argues that McCaffrey's ceiling should not be penalized 20% below last year's production based on historical data: 41% of running backs in the sample with massive workloads matched or exceeded their prior-year performance, suggesting his downside risk is overstated.

70% of running backs that finish top five in PPR points per game since 2005 failed to repeat that finish the following year. McCaffrey and one other back (Bijon Robinson) finished top five in consecutive years in 2024-2025, but historically this is rare—only Todd Gurley (2017-2018) and Brian Westbrook (2007-2008) have done it in the past two decades. Dave Richard uses this as a cautionary note when drafting McCaffrey, suggesting regression risk despite his elite talent.

Jamie Eisenberg raises concerns about the Carolina Panthers' offensive line health, noting that both starting tackles—Taylor Moton (blood clot in lung, out indefinitely) and Ikea Kwan (knee injury from playoff game)—are likely to miss time into the regular season. Eisenberg specifically mentions that the run game could be affected, raising worries about Chuba Hubbard's production given the offensive line deterioration.

Dave Richard identifies Colston Loveland as part of a strong tier of tight ends (including Tyler Warren, Kyle Pitts, Isaiah Likely) that should be of significant interest as alternatives to the expensive 2-3 turn tight end picks like McBride and Bowers; this tier offers better value if you don't believe in the top two's ability to hit 16 PPR points per game.

Jamie highlights DJ Moore's historical production under Joe Brady (now Bills offensive coordinator, previously Carolina OC in 2020-2021). Under Brady in 2020 with Teddy Bridgewater: 66 catches, 1193 yards, 4 TDs, 18.1 yards per catch, 118 targets in 15 games. In 2021 with Sam Darnold: 93 catches, 1157 yards, 4 TDs on 163 targets. Jamie notes uncertainty about which version of Moore will emerge in Chicago, referencing prior discussions about Moore needing more touchdown opportunities and comparing his potential to Zay Flowers' breakout trajectory.

McBride already showed he could produce, but Dave Richard doesn't think the Cardinals will provide that much target opportunity or volume in the passing game, which is the biggest decline for the offense.

Achane averaged 21.5 PPR points per game in 25 games with Tua Tagovailoa over the last two seasons but only 10.5 PPR points per game in eight games without Tua. With Malik Willis replacing Tagovailoa, Dave Richard expects Achane to average around 16.1 PPR points per game (his average in two games without Tua last year), which projects to around RB10. At 15th overall, this represents a significant downgrade from his elite 2024 production.

Achane's production is heavily dependent on Tua Tagovailoa. Malik Willis was the worst quarterback in the last two years at targeting running backs, while Tua was the best. Dave Richard notes that even if the Dolphins scheme differently for Willis and keep Achane north of 50 catches (probably 60-catch range), Willis will not target running backs at Tua's elite rate. The Dolphins' projected win total is under five, further limiting Achane's upside.

For Achane to maintain elite production in 2025, the Dolphins' offensive line must stay healthy, Malik Willis must keep Achane north of 50 catches (probably 60-catch range), and Achane must remain very involved in the passing game with goal-line opportunities. Dave Richard notes these are the conditions needed for Achane to exceed his expected 16.1 PPR points per game.

Debo Samuel is mentioned as still having opportunities in Washington's receiving corps, though the overall group is weak and fragmented; he is cited as an example of a receiver who will still get chances despite the team's limited depth.

Henry is mentioned as a running back with reasons to believe he could exceed Devon Achane's expected production in 2025, despite Achane's superior talent. Dave Richard groups Henry with Gentty, Hampton, Chase Brown, and Barkley as backs with better offensive environments than Achane, suggesting Henry's Ravens situation offers more upside.

Drake London averaged 15.1 PPR fantasy points per game over the last two seasons (2024 data referenced), though the transcript cuts off before full analysis is provided.

Dave Richard identifies Sampson as a potential 2025 version of Kenneth Gainwell—a late-round (post-round 8) pass-catching back who could reach 8+ PPR points per game with receptions alone, and potentially north of 11 if the starter misses time. Sampson and Spears are in situations where receptions could be available and they could challenge 50 catches in their offenses.

In a comparison of draft targets, Dave Richard prefers Garrett Wilson over Teddero McMillan, suggesting Wilson offers better value or upside relative to their respective draft positions.

Dave Richard notes the Seahawks' offensive line should be much improved over the last couple of years and the schedule is very favorable, which should help Garrett Wilson and the entire offense.

Dave Richard ranks Garrett Wilson one spot higher than Terry McLaurin in full PPR, though he prefers McLaurin overall; the ranking could change depending on roster additions.

Dave Richard suggests Gino Smith is worth drafting if acquired at the right cost, specifically if you get him five or six picks later in round four, though he prefers other options at the position.

Dave Richard groups George Kittle in a lower-tier value category alongside Travis Kelce, suggesting he is not a priority pick at current ADP despite his historical elite production.

Dave Richard expresses concern about George Pickens' ADP, noting that it makes him nervous to take Pickens as a top-20 pick. Richard cites a historical stat showing that of 17 wide receiver teammate duos finishing top-12 in PPR points per game from 2014-2024, only one repeated as top-12 the following year, and only four of the 17 repeated in the top-15. Pickens is going around wide receiver 10 in ADP, which Richard views as overvalued given the low historical success rate of teammate wide receiver duos both finishing top-12.

George Pickens' target-per-route-run rate of approximately 22.3% is used as a benchmark comparison for Teddero McMillan's similar rate, suggesting McMillan's rate is slightly below Pickens' level.

Dave Richard identifies Isaiah Likely as part of a strong value tier of tight ends (alongside Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, Kyle Pitts) that should be of significant interest as alternatives to the expensive 2-3 turn tight end picks; this tier offers better value if you don't believe in McBride and Bowers hitting 16 PPR points per game.

Gibbs finished top five in PPR points per game in 2024 and is one of the five backs (McCaffrey, Bijon, Gibbs, Taylor, Achane) in that tier. Dave Richard says he would not bet against Gibbs repeating top-five production, suggesting confidence in his ability to overcome the 70% regression rate.

Dave Richard wants to target Jalen Coker with a middle-of-the-late-round pick. In the last five games of the season, Coker's stats were eerily identical to Teddero McMillan's and in some cases favored Coker, which makes Richard less concerned about buying into McMillan's hype. However, Richard notes Coker's small sample size and that he wasn't playing early in the season, so caution is warranted about overweighting late-season performance.

In the last five games including playoffs, Coker averaged 6 targets per game and 14.1 PPR points per game, outproducing Ted Arroyo McMillan (6.2 targets, 9.8 PPR points) despite nearly identical target volume. Dave Richard calls Coker one of the best values you can get late in drafts.

Dave Richard was asked whether he would take McMillan, Garrett Wilson, or Terry McLaurin; Richard stated he would rather have McLaurin than both Wilson and McMillan.

Jamie Eisenberg highlights a significant target share split for Jamison Williams based on Sam Laporta's health: with Laporta healthy, Williams averaged 4.8 targets per game and 10.9 fantasy points per game in the first nine games; without Laporta, he averaged 7.4 targets per game and 15.2 fantasy points per game. Eisenberg attributes the boost partly to Dan Campbell taking over play-calling after the bye week, but emphasizes that Laporta's return to health will dampen Williams' target volume. Eisenberg notes Williams finished top 20 in PPR the last two years but had two games with under one fantasy point and no catches, cautioning that he will have down weeks when everyone is healthy.

Dave Richard expresses concern about Jamison Williams' consistency when Sam Laporta is healthy, noting that in 24 games where Laporta had at least six targets, Williams was a non-factor in 19 of those 24 games. Richard recommends treating Williams as a high-end number three receiver in best ball formats rather than a consistent week-to-week starter in redraft leagues, and cautions against handcuffing Williams and Laporta due to their similar ADP and the risk of both underperforming simultaneously.

In a comparison of draft targets, Dave Richard prefers Javante Williams over Teddero McMillan, suggesting Williams offers better value or upside relative to their respective draft positions.

Dave Richard cites Jackson Smith-Njigba as an example of a player who broke historical trends; despite the Seahawks being one of the lowest pass volume teams in the NFL, Smith-Njigba still had a great season, finishing better than the projected wide receiver 8-10 range.

Arizona added Jeremiah Love as a significant offensive piece in the offseason, which Dave Richard identifies as a potential headwind for the entire Cardinals passing game, including Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr., as Love will compete for touches and targets in the offense.

Joe Burrow has thrown 21 touchdowns in his last 27 games, demonstrating he is a touchdown machine. Additionally, he has an insane target per out run rate, and Tee Higgins is the only wide receiver to finish top 16 per game in PPR with a target per out run rate under 22% in the last four seasons, doing so twice.

James Boyd of The Athletic reports that Jonathan Taylor could be a training camp holdout. Dave Richard and Jamie Eisenberg express concern about this possibility, with Richard noting that Taylor has significant leverage as one of the top five players in terms of having leverage for wanting more money. The hosts acknowledge that if a holdout occurs, it will negatively impact Taylor's fantasy value unless it lasts only a week.

Taylor finished top five in PPR points per game in 2024 and is one of the five backs (McCaffrey, Bijon, Gibbs, Taylor, Achane) in that tier. Dave Richard says Taylor is the one he'd bank on to repeat top-five production, expressing confidence in his ability to overcome the 70% regression rate.

Jamie Eisenberg raises concerns about the Carolina Panthers' offensive line health, noting that both starting tackles—Taylor Moton (blood clot in lung, out indefinitely) and Ikea Kwan (knee injury from playoff game)—are likely to miss time into the regular season. Eisenberg specifically mentions that the run game could be affected, raising worries about Jonathan Brooks' production given the offensive line deterioration.

Jordan James appears to be the likely handcuff to Christian McCaffrey, though the backup situation remains a training camp storyline to monitor; the clarity on the handcuff role could provide comfort to McCaffrey drafters.

Gainwell averaged 13 PPR points per game in 2024 when Jalen Warren was out, showing the path to elite production. Dave Richard uses Gainwell as the benchmark for late-round running back upside, noting he was a big part of Aaron Rodgers' offense and won't repeat that production without injury to the starter.

Dave Richard identifies Kyle Pitts as part of a strong value tier of tight ends (alongside Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, Isaiah Likely) that should be of significant interest as alternatives to the expensive 2-3 turn tight end picks; this tier offers better value if you don't believe in McBride and Bowers hitting 16 PPR points per game.

In a comparison of draft targets, Dave Richard prefers Luther Burden over Teddero McMillan, suggesting Burden offers better value or upside relative to their respective draft positions.

Dave Richard argues that despite Marvin Harrison Jr. being drafted ahead of Michael Wilson, the target data from last season when both were healthy shows Wilson's massive advantage (13.6 vs. 4.8 targets per game). Richard notes that while Michael Lafleur wants Harrison to be his Devante Adams and Wilson to be his Puka Nakua, neither receiver is as talented as those comparisons suggest, and both will face target competition from Trey McBride and Jeremiah Love, making the draft premium on Harrison questionable relative to Wilson's upside.

Dave Richard stated he is not drafting Marvin Harrison Jr., declining to take him at the six-to-nine turn despite the discussion of him versus Michael Wilson at that draft position.

Without Marvin Harrison Jr. on the field, Wilson averaged 13.6 targets per game and 25.9 fantasy points per game across five games; with Harrison healthy, Wilson dropped to 4.8 targets and 7.6 points per game across 12 games. Dave Richard notes this nine-target-per-game swing demonstrates Wilson's ceiling when given opportunities, though the concern is whether he'll receive those chances with Harrison, Trey McBride, and Jeremiah Love all competing for targets in the Arizona offense.

Michael Wilson's production is heavily dependent on Marvin Harrison Jr.'s availability. In 12 games with Harrison healthy, Wilson averaged only 7.6 PPR points per game with 4.8 targets. In five games without Harrison, Wilson averaged 25.9 PPR points per game with 13.6 targets, showing he is a non-factor when Harrison is on the field.

Dave Richard stated he is not drafting Michael Wilson, declining to take him at the eight-to-nine turn despite the discussion of him versus Marvin Harrison Jr. at that draft position.

Gaskin had a 40-catch season for the Raiders and averaged over 11 PPR points per game in 10 games, exemplifying the value of pass-catching running backs. Dave Richard cites this as evidence that running backs with 40+ catches have a strong track record of averaging at least 11 PPR points per game.

Sam Laporta was fully cleared for training camp after suffering a herniated disc in his back. Dave Richard ranks Laporta as the fifth-ranked tight end in his personal rankings, while Jamie Eisenberg ranks him sixth. Laporta is going 82nd overall in Fantasy Pro's ADP as the eighth tight end, right after Tucker Kraft and essentially tied with Harold Finnegan Jr.

Dave Richard cites Saquon Barkley as an example of the 400-touch regression pattern: Barkley had a monster 2024 season with 450 touches but is not as good in 2025, illustrating the risk of decline after a high-volume year.

Barkley was cited as a cautionary example: despite staying healthy last year (addressing the primary injury concern for high-volume backs), he took a huge step back with an almost 40% decline in PPR points per game, demonstrating that even when injury risk doesn't materialize, massive workload backs can still underperform significantly.

When Jamar Chase and Joe Burrow are healthy, Tee Higgins averaged 15.1 PPR points per game in six games last year (including a 27.2-point bomb in week 14) and 18.5 PPR points per game in 12 games in 2024. This duo of Chase and Higgins in Cincinnati should encourage drafting Higgins as at minimum a top 15 wide receiver.

In four of the last five seasons, Tee Higgins has averaged at least 15.4 fantasy points per game when the big three (Chase, Burrow, and Higgins) are all playing with normal snap share, making him a very safe pick in that range compared to riskier options like Garrett Wilson.

The downside to Tee Higgins is that he misses time frequently, making it hard to count on him for all 17 games.

Two seasons ago, McLaurin averaged 18.9 points per game in his last six games and 18.2 points per game in three postseason games; in 2024, after Jaden Daniels improved, McLaurin averaged 17.3 points per game over 15 regular season plus three postseason games on only 7.1 targets per game, demonstrating elite efficiency with Daniels.

Dave Richard prefers McLaurin over Garrett Wilson and McMillan in draft rankings, citing the strong connection between McLaurin and Jaden Daniels as impressive, though acknowledging McLaurin is now 31 years old; Richard notes McLaurin should be the target hog in Washington's weak receiving corps but has never commanded targets like a true number-one receiver historically.

Dave Richard believes McLaurin's target share could rise significantly in Washington's new West Coast/air raid offense under Jayden Daniels and David Blau. Richard notes McLaurin has historically averaged 7.3 targets per game and could exceed that threshold if Washington doesn't add a significant receiver (Brandon Aiyuk and Stefan Diggs deals fell through). Richard sees McLaurin potentially reaching 7.5+ targets per game and being used differently than in prior seasons, making him a late round three/early round four value despite being 31 years old. Richard also notes SportsLine has McLaurin's targets projected low and suspects Washington may have the biggest separation between WR1 and WR2 target share in the NFL.

Dave Richard notes that Travis Kelce is the only tight end to average 16+ PPR fantasy points per game twice over the last 10 seasons; he is mentioned as part of a lower-tier value group alongside George Kittle, implying he is not a priority at current ADP despite his historical elite production.

Dave Richard argues that drafting McBride at the 2-3 turn requires him to average at least 16 PPR fantasy points per game to justify the ADP; historically, only 11 tight ends have averaged 16+ PPR points per game over the last 10 seasons, and all were on teams that threw for 250+ yards and 28+ touchdowns per game. The Cardinals' new head coach and improved run game make it unlikely they'll maintain the pass volume needed for McBride to hit that threshold, despite his prior-year performance.

Michael Lafleur has stated that Trey McBride will be utilized as his Tyler Higbee, referencing Higbee's elite five-to-six-game stretch in 2022-2023 as a benchmark for McBride's role. Dave Richard expects McBride to maintain his target share in Arizona's offense, which will reduce passing game volume for both Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr., as McBride has been a monster in the Cardinals' passing attack and Lafleur would be foolish not to utilize him.

Lafleur said McBride is going to be his Tyler Higbee; Higbee had one of the best five-to-six-game stretches in history at the end of 2023, setting a high bar for McBride's role and production ceiling in the Cardinals offense.

Dave Richard identifies Tyler Warren as part of a strong value tier of tight ends (alongside Colston Loveland, Kyle Pitts, Isaiah Likely) that should be of significant interest as alternatives to the expensive 2-3 turn tight end picks; this tier offers better value if you don't believe in McBride and Bowers hitting 16 PPR points per game.

The Panthers drafted Legette (referred to as Brazel in the transcript, likely a transcription error for Xavier Legette or similar receiver) as a field stretcher, adding another receiving option to the offense.