0:00Everybody in fantasy football is telling
0:01you the same thing right now. Get your
0:03running backs early, take two in the
0:04first three rounds, don't get left
0:06behind, running backs are back, baby.
0:08And I'm telling you, that's exactly how
0:10you're going to lose your league this
0:11year. Now, I'm not a zero running back
0:12guy, and not here to tell you that all
0:15running backs are bad, the opposite
0:16actually. Running backs just had the two
0:19best, healthiest, most reliable seasons
0:22we've seen in the last half decade. That
0:24part is true. I pulled up five years of
0:27data and it's right there. The problem
0:29isn't the running backs. The problem is
0:31what you have to pay for them right now.
0:33Because the entire market just watched
0:36those two great years and did the
0:38dumbest thing the fantasy market always
0:40does, it assumed the last two years are
0:42going to be every year. That's recency
0:44bias, and this year recency bias is
0:47wearing the running back jersey. So, let
0:49me show you the data, walk you through
0:51exactly why the price has gotten
0:52completely out of hand, and then most
0:54importantly, show you exactly what to do
0:57about it. Now, let me steel man the
0:59other side first. Because I'm not going
1:00to sit here and pretend the running back
1:02hype came out of nowhere. It didn't, it
1:04came from two incredibly great seasons.
1:07One, start with health. From 2021
1:10through 2023, your top 12 running backs
1:13averaged right around 14 games played.
1:15Um 14.2 basically, that's the historical
1:18baseline. The top 12 guys drafted at the
1:20position, on average, they miss about
1:23say three games. Now, of course, it's
1:25not like every one of them's going to
1:26miss three games, it's you're going to
1:28have a pretty high percentage of them
1:29missing large chunks of the season. The
1:32but look at the past two years. In 2024,
1:35that number was 15.2 games. In 2025,
1:39that number was 15.4.
1:41The top running backs in the league
1:43basically stopped getting hurt. That's a
1:45full extra game of availability per back
1:48compared to the years before, and at the
1:50top of your draft, an extra game or two
1:52from your stud is a massive deal. Now,
1:55the part that really lit the fire, the
1:57hit rate. How often did a top 12 drafted
2:00running back actually finish as a top 10
2:03back? From 2021 to 2023, that number
2:06lived around 36%. Roughly one out of
2:09three running backs that were drafted
2:11inside your top 12 RBs would end up
2:13being a top 10 name. In 2024, that
2:16number jumped up to 58%.
2:20In 2025, that number jumped to 67%.
2:25The hit rate nearly doubled. Two out of
2:27three early running backs paid off last
2:29year. So, if you drafted running backs
2:31early in 2024 and 2025, you're probably
2:34popping champagne in December. I mean, I
2:36get it. In the Flock league, Sal took
2:39McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor to start
2:41the draft. His vibes, they were
2:42immaculate.
2:43>> I've been waiting
2:45for 10 years to have Saquon Barkley on
2:48my team since I saw him in college.
2:50But, it's not happening this year. Give
2:51me Christian McCaffrey.
2:55>> But, here's the trap, and it's the
2:56oldest trap in fantasy football. The
2:57market saw those 2 years, too. And the
2:59market isn't going to let you buy that
3:01production at the same price ever again.
3:04This is the whole video right here, so
3:06stay with me. In 2024, your top 24
3:09running backs coming off the board were
3:11at an average pick of 45. Pick 45.
3:14That's the middle of the fourth round
3:16territory in a 12-team league. Now, this
3:18year in 2026, that same group, the top
3:2124 running backs, are going at an
3:23average pick of 25.
3:26That is nearly 20 picks earlier, almost
3:29two full rounds. That exact same tier of
3:31players, and now you have to spend two
3:34rounds of premium to draft the same
3:36position. And it's not just the deep
3:38guys. Your top 12 running backs went
3:39from an average draft slot of pick 20 in
3:422024 to pick 11 this year. That elite
3:47tier just got pulled up by almost an
3:49entire round. Now, here's the part
3:50nobody's pointing at. While running
3:52backs got more expensive, receivers got
3:55cheaper. Your top 24 receivers were
3:57going around pick 18 and 1/2 in 2024.
4:00Now, they've slid all the way down to
4:02pick 27. The market flipped. Money
4:05flooded out of the wide receiver room
4:07and into the backfield. So, think about
4:09what actually happened. In 2024, running
4:12backs were a screaming value. You got
4:14elite production at a discount and they
4:16hit great, but you weren't smart because
4:19you liked running backs. You were smart
4:21because they were underpriced. That was
4:23the entire edge. It was never about the
4:25position, it was about the price. And
4:27now that edge is gone, completely gone.
4:29You are now paying full retail, premium
4:31retail, for that same exact product.
4:33Same players, way worse value. When
4:36everybody figures out the inefficiency,
4:38it stops being an inefficiency. That's
4:40not a hot take, that's just how the
4:41market works. So, follow the cycle
4:43because it's the whole point. 2023
4:45running backs bust, market sours, prices
4:48crater. 2024, they're cheap, they hit,
4:52the sharp money cleans up. 2025, they
4:55hit again. Now, they're healthier than
4:57ever and the narrative completely flips
4:59to draft running backs early. And here
5:01we are in 2026, where running backs are
5:03the most expensive we've really ever
5:06seen them and you're being told to buy
5:07at the top of the cycle right after two
5:10perfect seasons. That's not a strategy,
5:12that's just chasing last year's perfect
5:14numbers. Now, you may ask, "Okay, Flock,
5:17but what if running backs are just
5:18healthier now? What if it's a real
5:20shift?" Fair question, let me show you
5:23why I don't buy it and the data does the
5:25talking here. In 2025, your top 12
5:28running backs played 15.4 games. Your
5:32top 12 wide receivers played 14.3. Read
5:34that again. The running backs were more
5:36available than the wide receivers. You
5:38can just remember Malik Nabers obviously
5:40down for the year. And not only that,
5:42but you had additional bust inside those
5:44top 12 names. And that has basically
5:47never been true. Wide receiver is the
5:48lower contact and lower injury position.
5:51Historically, receivers outplay running
5:53backs in games every year. In 2025, that
5:56flipped. And when you see a physically
5:58punishing position suddenly become the
6:00most durable position in fantasy
6:02football for one season, that's not a
6:04new normal. That's the textbook
6:06definition of a number that's about to
6:07regress. The thing that made running
6:09backs special last year is the single
6:11most likely thing to break. And here's
6:13the kicker that ruins the narrative.
6:15Even in 2025, the healthiest, highest
6:18hit rate running backs that we have on
6:20record, the bust rate of your top 12
6:22running backs was still 33%. One in
6:25three in the best season ever. Now, hold
6:28that up against the receivers. The same
6:30season, your top 12 receivers busted at
6:3325% lower than running backs managed in
6:36the running backs' best season ever. And
6:38rewind to 2023, the top 12 wide receiver
6:41bust rate was 8%. 8 to position the
6:45entire industry is telling you to fade
6:48has quietly been the safer bet the whole
6:50time. So, I've spent 12 minutes telling
6:52you what's wrong, and let me give you
6:54the part that you actually clicked for,
6:55what to do about it. And of course, I
6:57will say I am taking all the data from
7:00this, and I am making my 2026 fantasy
7:04football rankings with this in mind. All
7:06of our 2026 fantasy football draft
7:09sheets with all the historical numbers
7:11in mind. And those draft sheets are
7:13going to be able to be applied to your
7:14ESPN, your Sleeper, your Yahoo leagues.
7:17They'll be tailored exactly to the
7:19league format and platform that you are
7:21drafting on. And you'll have draft
7:23assistants to help you in real time, all
7:26on flockfantasy.com. Not only are you
7:28getting all of that from myself, but
7:30from all your favorite creators that you
7:32watch on YouTube. You can find the link
7:34to flockfantasy.com in the description
7:37and the comment section. The 2026 season
7:39pass is only $34 right now. And if you
7:43use code flock, I'm also going to be the
7:44one answering your questions during the
7:47season in live streams. But, the number
7:49one thing is I'm not telling you to fade
7:51running backs. I'm telling you to stop
7:52overpaying for them. There's a
7:53difference. If an elite back falls to
7:55you at a fair value, take them. What I
7:57will not do this year is reach up around
8:00to grab a second or third running back
8:01just because the room is panicking. Let
8:03the table pay the recency tax. You don't
8:06have to. Number two, follow the money in
8:08the other direction. While everybody's
8:10been bidding up running backs, your wide
8:12receivers just got cheaper. Top 24 wide
8:15receivers slid from pick 18 on average
8:18to pick 27 over the past two years.
8:20That's the same kind of discount we had
8:22with running backs in 2024. The discount
8:24that made them the winning play. The
8:27value didn't disappear. It just walked
8:29across to the wide receiver room. And
8:31here's the thing nobody wants to say out
8:33loud, because the last two years turned
8:36running backs into the shiny object.
8:38Zoom out to the last five years. The
8:40receivers have just been the better pick
8:42at every tier on every metric that
8:44matters. Start with availability. Over
8:46the past five seasons, your top 24
8:49drafted wide receivers averaged 14.4
8:53games a year. Your top 12 running backs,
8:5514 flat. Go all the way down to the top
8:5836 drafted receivers and top 36 drafted
9:01running backs, you have 14.3 games for
9:04the receivers versus 13.9 for the
9:07running backs. Receivers just play more
9:09games, get injured less. Now,
9:11reliability, and this is where it gets
9:13ugly. At the top 24 level over the past
9:16five years, receivers busted 28% of the
9:19time. Running backs were at 34% and the
9:22receivers didn't just bust less, they
9:25hit the top end ceiling more. Top 24
9:27drafted receivers finished inside the
9:30top 10 of their position 34% of the time
9:33versus running backs were at 29%. So, at
9:36the same draft year, the receiver room
9:38hands you fewer bust
9:40and gives you more league winners. And
9:42at the very top, it's the same story.
9:44Top 12 wide receivers busted 22% of the
9:46time. Top 12 drafted running backs
9:48busted 28% of the time. And get this,
9:51those five-year numbers already include
9:54the two greatest running back seasons on
9:56record, even after 2024 and 2025 dragged
9:59the running back averages up, receivers
10:01are still ahead across the board. So,
10:04think about what each side is actually
10:06asking you to believe. The running back
10:08case asks you to bet that the last two
10:10years are the new forever. The receiver
10:12case is just the whole five-year sample.
10:15I know which side of that bet I want to
10:17be on, and right now it's the cheaper
10:19one, too. Number three, let the cycle
10:21work for you instead of against you. The
10:23sharp move was never always draft
10:26running backs or never draft running
10:28backs. It's buy the position the market
10:30is scared of, sell the position that the
10:32market is in love with. Right now, the
10:34market is terrified of nothing at
10:36running back and forgetting that
10:37receivers exist, so that's your edge.
10:40So, this draft season, let your league
10:42reach for that third or fourth running
10:44back in the first five rounds. You sit
10:47back, take the elite running back if the
10:49value's there, then hammer the receiver
10:51discount everyone else is ignoring. When
10:54half of those early running backs do
10:56what running backs always do, and a
10:58third of them will, you're the one
10:59holding the stable, cheaper,
11:01league-winning receiver core. All right,
11:02now that's enough theory. Let me put
11:04actual names on the board because I know
11:06what you're really here for. Who I'm
11:08taking and who I'm letting somebody else
11:10take. Let's start at the very top
11:11because I want to be crystal clear. I am
11:13not anti-elite running back. If I have
11:16the 1.01 or the 1.02, I am thrilled to
11:20take Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson and
11:24not have to stress a single day in my
11:26life. Here's why those two are different
11:28from everything I just spent 15 minutes
11:30warning you about. Gibbs finishes the
11:32running back two in 2024 and the running
11:35back three in 2025. Bijan finishes the
11:37RB3 and the RB2 in 2025. Back-to-back
11:40top three seasons for both of them. They
11:42play every single game. They're in the
11:44prime of their career. Three-down
11:46bellcows glued to the passing game as
11:48well. That is the rare running back
11:51whose floor actually justifies a massive
11:54premium price. These aren't recency bias
11:57picks. They're the two best backs in
11:59football and they proven it for the past
12:01two years. They are the most valuable
12:03assets in fantasy. But, beyond that, I
12:06really only want to be taking one or two
12:09of these top-level backs and then once
12:12we get to round three,
12:14four, five, I want to be grabbing the
12:17discounts. I want to be taking a wide
12:19receiver like Nico Collins in round
12:22three. Once we get to round four, I want
12:24to be going through and drafting Tee
12:26Higgins. Once we get to round five, I
12:29want to look at a name like Davante
12:31Adams. And if I can start my draft off,
12:34say with Bijan Robinson, Brock Bowers,
12:38Tee Higgins, Davante Adams, and Nico
12:41Collins, hell, I'm fine being light on
12:44running back two or running back three.
12:46I'll go through and I'll try to identify
12:48the running back values that I like at
12:50the very end of drafts just in case we
12:52do start to have injured running backs
12:54again and we know we are going to have
12:56those waiver wire names that all of a
12:58sudden are exciting. So, I would
13:00classify some of those like the trap
13:02running backs right now would be like
13:04Breece Hall going at the end of the
13:06second round, Travis Etienne there going
13:08at the end of the second round, the
13:09beginning of the third round. And if we
13:11end up seeing guys like Javonte Williams
13:13creep up to the middle of round three,
13:15the wide receivers are just going to be
13:17better picks there instead. So, here's
13:19the bottom line. Running backs aren't
13:20going to destroy your fantasy team
13:21because they're bad. They were great.
13:23They're going to destroy your team
13:24because they were two great years and
13:27the whole market noticed, and now you're
13:29being asked to pay a premium for a
13:30position that gets healthy in lottery
13:32cycles and bust a third of the time even
13:34at the absolute best. Meanwhile, the
13:37receivers, the position that's been
13:38quietly more available, more reliable,
13:40and less bust prone for five straight
13:42years, just went on sale. Don't pay for
13:44last year's hit rate. Don't pay for
13:462025's health. Pay for what the player's
13:48actually worth, and let the recency bias
13:50crowd subsidize your title. If you want
13:53my full updated rankings, the tiers, the
13:56draft sheets, the real-time draft
13:58assistance to flag exactly what running
14:00backs are worth the pick and which ones
14:02aren't, it's all on flockfantasy.com.
14:05Links in the description. Code flock is
14:07going to get me to answer your questions
14:09for free in the live streams this year.
14:11And on top of that, you're going to be
14:12able to get access to not only all of my
14:15stuff, but all of the stuff from all
14:16your favorite creators that you watch on
14:18YouTube. But, please let me know in the
14:20comment section what running backs
14:21you're drafting versus avoiding this
14:23year, and I'll go down there and argue
14:24with you.
