VideoFrom Ron Stewart
How to Build the BEST March Madness Bracket (Optimal Strategy 2026)
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40 min
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Mar 16, 2026
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Mon, March 16, 2026
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Episode Transcript
0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to the basement. I'm Ron. Now, this is not a welcome back for most of you because
0:06this is a fantasy football channel, but today is a special day. It is the Monday after Selection Sunday. We have brackets
0:13in our hands. They are fresh off the press.
0:16And this is just one of my passions in sports that doesn't quite pay the bills, but this is my one opportunity to hop on
0:23a mic and talk about it. I was the kid growing up where I would annoy everybody in the locker room in high school to get
0:30their $5 for a bracket pool so that we could all have something to root for and have some fun in March. That's what this
0:36is all about. Now, some background on me. I watch the games. I am a fan of college basketball. I wouldn't call
0:43myself an expert. I'm probably like at an intermediate level. I couldn't give you the starting five, especially in the NIL and transfer era for all of these
0:51teams, but I watch the games. I've kept up with it since it started over in November. I watched the conference tournaments, and I have an idea of
0:59what's going on. Now, with fantasy football, I am a data and analytics-driven person, so today we are going to break down the data and
1:07analytics, leverage that against the public so that we can go out there and win our college basketball March Madness bracket pools. As always, if you enjoy,
1:19leave a like. I would say subscribe if you're new, but if you're not a fantasy football guy, that is completely fine
1:24because this video is sponsored by Underdog. Make sure you check them out because they have a really cool promo going on
1:33right now called the bracket battle. It is a free-to-play bracket pool on the app. All you have to do is download the
1:41app. You can see here, is it really free? Yes, it's free. We're going to break down the scoring of it. We're
1:46going to break down how it works. 20K to first place, 10,000 to second, 7.5K to third. It is a really, really cool thing
1:55they are doing over on the Underdog app.
1:57Now, if you are new to the Underdog app, make sure you check out promo code Ron in the description and the comment
2:03section down below. All you have to do is use the code and then you can get $50 in bonuses when you play $5 with promo
2:14code Ron. Again, all of this will be down below in the description and the comment section down below. Now, before we just hop on here and fill out
2:23a bracket willy-nilly, let's talk about how we can kind of set ourself better up for success, is what I'm trying to say here. And first, you want
2:33to know your scoring.
2:36Here we can see in this bracket pool and really anything if you do an ESPN one with your co-workers or this one for
2:41Underdog, it's essentially all the same.
2:43What you get is 32 points per correct championship, 16 per correct uh I guess that would be I'm trying to think this
2:53is Yeah, yeah. So, a win in round of 64.
2:55So, this is a getting to round of 32.
2:57This is Sweet 16. This is Elite Eight.
3:00This is Final Four. This is to get to the championship round and then to win it all. And of course, the way that we want to be thinking
3:07through filling out these brackets is almost like a chess game where your championship is the king. That is everything, right? 32 points. You could
3:16get a perfect first round and all you will get is 32 points here. So, we want our championship to be intact by that weekend. We want our
3:27Final Four to be intact. Like, it should be a game of Battleship almost where you want to look up after the first weekend
3:35and say, "Hey, my entire Elite Eight is still intact."
3:40Now that we know how the scoring works pretty much across every single format, we can talk about how to get a leg up
3:46over our opponents and that is going to happen by figuring out what everyone else is doing. This is called leverage, right? If you have a situation here
3:54where you flip a coin and 20 people say that it's going to be heads, you would be in an advantageous spot to say that it's
4:03going to be tails cuz then you get a 20 to one odds coin flip on what is a one to one odd 50/50 sort of deal. So,
4:12if 50 people have one champion as their championship pick, let's say Duke has a 50% chance to win and
4:21100 people are on Duke, but 49% chance to win is Michigan, it would be in your best interest to be on the other side of
4:27that just out of the payoff of your opponents going elsewhere. So, that data has been free in recent years, but it is not anymore
4:39over on ESPN. So, what you have to do is go to Pool Genius, and I will say I'm going to have a sheet with all of this
4:45there, but it is March 16th, right? Games tip off on Thursday. People are filling out brackets from here through then. So, I'm
4:55going to fill out a bracket today, but I will say if you want the most up-to-date public data, that is going to be over on
5:01Pool Genius. I have a link with them, so you can get a subscription there for up to 60% off using my link in the comment
5:07descrip in the comments below and the description. Uh what you want to do is just find the public pick, sort, put it
5:14in a Google sheet. That is what I have done here today. Now, I will say as well, this Underdog Pool, we want to know how many people are in
5:22it, right? We won't know, but I would guess thousands of people are going to hop into this Underdog Pool. If you are
5:29out here and you are in a simple work pool with your co-workers or a few buddies, this is where you want to check
5:35out the bracket picks future feature over on Pool Genius. Let's say uh buddy pool, and we will say it's with like let's
5:46say, you know, like 15 of the homies.
5:48It will go in there.
5:50Let's say that there's a prize payout to only one person and it will make a bracket for you based on everything.
5:58This is the scoring that we use for Underdog and it'll go out there and it'll make one, you know, do you get
6:03bonus points for picking upsets? Let's say no.
6:06Where is this pool set up? We will say it's on ESPN and then it will make a bracket for you and you can go in there
6:13and tinker with some things if you want, but it'll kind of think through that aspect because I say that that is
6:19very important because if it's a league or a pool with like 15 of your buddies, you can go very chalk and have a huge
6:25edge in this Underdog bracket pool where there's going to be thousands of entries, we want to get really weird. We don't want any duplicates with anybody
6:32else. We want to leverage the field but also get really risky because we want to try and get the $20,000 in first place.
6:39But again, if you're in a smaller pool, make sure you think through it that way.
6:43So what we do is we take our public pick odds across the board, right, for winning the tournament, the championship, whatever.
6:50I then put it into a Google Sheet along with Evan Moya. This has been a really cool tool. It's essentially KenPom. This
6:58is the data-based what teams are the best in March, but it is somewhat updated for injuries, right?
7:06Duke here is dealing with significant injuries and that's reflected where Duke isn't the head and shoulders best team in the entire bracket. It is right there
7:13neck and neck with Michigan and that it means we get the Torney odds here and we can see that in terms of the championship,
7:21Michigan is way ahead of Duke for that reason because they're healthier, easier draw, all of that stuff. So what I did
7:27is I took Evan Moya's tournament probabilities. I took what the public has done so far in the public brackets and we have made
7:35a matrix where we have Evan Moya for EM, we have the public percentage and then we have the leverage. That is your
7:43difference between the two.
7:45And we can see here, we can go all the way to the end because we actually want to start with our champion here and kind
7:49of figure out who we want to win it.
7:51Now, the public has Michigan at 14.5% of their brackets.
7:58Evan Myer has them winning 26.5% of the time. I would say Michigan is the pick this year. Now, we'll kind of look
8:05through and we'll think through, right?
8:07Where if we're talking about thousands of teams, I I will say as well, like kind of a rule of thumb, is you don't want the percentage chance
8:14for your champion to be lower than your overall odds of winning the pool, right?
8:20So, if you are in a I would say four-person pool with your buddies, I would only pick Michigan, right? Because at that point, might as
8:29well just take a future, right? Where if Florida has like an 11% chance to win, but you only have a 25% chance to win
8:34your bracket, just place a future, you know, on your local sports book for Florida. There's no reason to pick them in your bracket pool. So, we're thinking
8:43through thousands uh here for Underdog.
8:46We can go all the way down to like this range if we want, but All right, I actually just finished the bracket, but
8:51I just wanted to hop in here for a second and tell you that if you fill out your bracket on Underdog, you can join
8:58my group so that we can see who has the better bracket between me and the audience. So, even with the $20,000 up
9:06top, if we don't win that, we can still see who did better than who within this community. I'll have a link to that as
9:12well, the uh like join this group down below in the description and the comment section below. All right, back to the
9:19video. Let's see, does it let me pick my winners first? Like that That's what I would say is the meta here. We want to
9:26probably pick our champions first. Now, this is the part of the video where we definitely just start filling out the bracket. I pretty much have
9:35given you all of the info. Everything's in the description, everything's in the comment section. Uh and now it's just time to have some fun and think through
9:42these teams. So, I I think that we will go with Michigan as our winner here. Uh just at first, just to have a little bit
9:49of a placeholder. Uh they are of course all the way on the bottom division. I imagine they're also like because I'm trying to think. No, this is a
9:56pretty strong This is pretty strong. I guess Texas Tech without Toppin is sort of weak. Bama their best player just got caught up for like sending a
10:05gun in the mail or something like that.
10:08So, Bama's a little weaker.
10:12I guess Kentucky's weaker this year, but I was Iowa State scares me. Regardless though, let's make Michigan our uh champion right out the gate and kind of
10:19see how that feels.
10:22Now, I will be honest with you guys.
10:24Uh I am mirroring my phone here and picking things through Or wait, should I maybe Can I Can I just do this on my phone?
10:36No.
10:38I I guess I was just curious if I could.
10:41I hope that this doesn't show you anything.
10:43Okay, never mind. So, I definitely I have to do it through uh my laptop here. All right, that's perfect That's fine. That's fine. This
10:49is going to be a little difficult doing it here, but I think we're going to find a rhythm. So, we'll have Michigan as our
10:55champion. Now, this is where things get tricky. Right?
10:58Because I I and I will say too, Duke seems like a minus EV pick and it definitely is, but they're still winning
11:0419% of the time. Now, I guess I haven't really covered why Duke should be lower than their public percentage and it's
11:09that Yes, they're a blue blood. Yes, they have Booze but I always screw up his name. N'Gogba, he's hurt. Caleb Foster, he's hurt. And
11:19this is already a team that wasn't very deep, right? I think that really the only other guy I like is I'm trying to think. I always get the
11:27I believe it's Isaiah Evans.
11:29Sarr is pretty good as well, but things get really spooky for Duke here as well.
11:34And in terms of like I guess the best place to have them lose. This is also something on the other side of things to
11:39sort of see the lowest EV of having them advance.
11:43So, it seems like the best thing you could possibly do is to have them lose in the final four. So, I actually like
11:49that. Let's Let's get Duke to the final four. I think this is going to be a really chalky year as well. Uh let me
11:54just talk about how these things go because I I think there we've sort of I guess people in college basketball have covered it all year, but
12:03there's certainly a sentiment that this year is very top heavy and I probably agree, right? Where uh Duke is better than everybody. Arizona's
12:12better than everybody. Oh, no, we don't want that.
12:18Damn it. All right, we'll fix that later, but we'll have Duke in the final four losing.
12:23Who Who are we going to have Duke losing to is kind of what the question becomes, right? So, it's going to be over here.
12:29How How was Florida? Wow, so Florida's really liked.
12:33Uh and this is where things are going to get tricky because we we need to really differentiate ourselves here.
12:39Making it to the championship game Purdue gives you a ton of leverage.
12:43Purdue even just making it I guess this would what be Purdue to like the So, this is Yeah, this is advancing. So, with Purdue to the final
12:51four is a huge leverage pick.
12:55I couldn't even tell you what part of the bracket Purdue's in.
12:58Oh, I'll be honest, Duke got a favorable draw as well. Like UConn's a pretty weak two seed in my book.
13:05Michigan State's a pretty weak three seed in my book as well. So, let's do this.
13:10Let's put So, Purdue's in the same spot. Oh, man, that's tough. I like Arizona.
13:20So, I guess what? Where Where Where do they have Arizona here in terms of So, you're getting pretty So Arizona is
13:29like pretty properly rated. How How's Iowa State, man? I love Iowa State.
13:33Iowa State's not great, either. Illinois is one of these So Illinois has to be Sweet 16.
13:39Maybe even Elite Eight. Where do you got Illinois in here?
13:44We got Illinois going up against Penn.
13:53No doubt. Oh, give me give me VCU.
13:55Honestly, pretty cool of Underdog to give you these um They have the odds for every first round matchup. So, yeah, give me VCU. I I I
14:03believe VCU is going to be favored in this game, but give me Illinois over VCU.
14:08And then we'll put Illinois in the Sweet 16.
14:11Maybe even in the Elite Eight. I do Oh, man.
14:14Illinois is tough, dude. Is that What Who'd they just lose to?
14:18Was it Wisconsin?
14:20Wisconsin's a pretty hot team right now, too. We'll just leave them in our Sweet 16 for now.
14:25And then we'll kind of get going here.
14:27We got to figure out how far we want Purdue to go.
14:32Purdue versus Arizona is tough, man. I will say I like their draw like I'm not scared of Nova or Utah State.
14:38Wisconsin's scary, and so is Acoff, man.
14:40Give me give me Acoff and Wisconsin here. I'm not really scared about either of those.
14:47Give me Arizona.
14:50What do Where do we got on Wisconsin versus Wisconsin versus Arkansas?
14:58So, that's a four seed and a five seed.
15:00Arkansas best leverages to get Sweet 16.
15:03Wisconsin's pretty poor. Okay, so we'll go we'll go Arkansas. I like Acoff enough, but we're going to go Arizona over Arkansas.
15:09Pretty much no doubt. So, Arizona, we're going to get them to Hmm.
15:18You're not really getting leverage anywhere with Arizona. So, for Arizona, it's really sort of whatever you feel is actually going to happen for them.
15:27I guess for Arizona, I'd like to see who they're going to place in the Elite Eight before I decide. Uh and I think we've already sort of
15:33figured out that Purdue man, the numbers love I guess Evan Miyazono loves Purdue.
15:38Purdue scary to me.
15:40They were what? Preseason number one coming into the year.
15:43They've sucked all year.
15:45Not sucked, but versus expectation. They have really struggled versus expectation, but and they've really struggled against like athletic teams. Do they have to Do
15:57they have to face an athletic team here?
15:58That That's what would be the scary part for me is Purdue going up up against a team that like could just run them out of the gym. Sort
16:08of a similar I was going to say similar concern to somebody else, but I can't remember who I had it at the tip of my tongue here.
16:16Let's do this.
16:21Let's Let's see who Who does Purdue have to go up against here? So, Miami or Missouri? I'm not really uh I'm not really concerned about either
16:28of these teams. I guess okay, so Miami gives you leverage out the gate.
16:31Evan Miyazono has them 66%.
16:34Easy. Purdue over Miami. I'm not really even thinking about that one.
16:38Uh we'll go Gonzaga over Kennesaw.
16:41I guess this would be the format where you could get pretty weird with uh like some of these like this might be
16:48the time to go with an Akron or a High Point. I'm not going High Point.
16:53Who's Akron going up against?
16:55Texas Tech. Oh.
16:5729% Evan Miyazono has got them at No, I'm going to take JT Thorpen.
17:04Bama's sort of a fun one, dude.
17:07Look, this is again, there's thousands of teams in here. We We have to sort of differentiate ourselves somewhere.
17:13So, that's sort of what the the mindset I got to be thinking through here.
17:17It's like a fun thought experiment.
17:19Illinois is definitely going to be We might even have We might have to do Illinois in the Final Four.
17:26But who does Illinois have to beat to get there?
17:30Would it be Arizona?
17:34Man, I I I struggle with that cuz Arizona looks so good. The Arizona versus Iowa State game was amazing.
17:42Give me Yukon. We might have Yukon losing to UCLA.
17:45That Yukon team, man. I don't like the big I think his name is Terrance Reed.
17:50Uh I don't like the big at all.
17:54So yeah, they want they want Yukon losing in the Sweet Sixteen.
17:58Where Where do we got UCLA here? UCLA gets some leverage. Give me UCLA. UCLA has been hot recently. I like Mick
18:03Cronin.
18:07I think betting against Yukon is where we can differentiate ourselves a little bit cuz especially cuz they're like a huge They're such a big name, you know?
18:14We'll go Michigan State. Let's do this Louisville-South Florida game as well.
18:19Louisville has leverage here. It's fine by me.
18:23I'm not even really going to entertain like a 13 seed, I don't think. Not this year. Not with Darren Peterson either.
18:30Man, I will say St. John's is hot, but getting Darren Peterson here Man, I kind of like Kansas over St.
18:36John's.
18:38This is to make the Sweet Sixteen. What What do What is What What do we got him at here?
18:46What What does St. John's versus Kansas look like to make the Sweet Sixteen?
18:51Wow, so St. John's has a leverage against Kansas?
18:54People Do people just like Kansas because of Darren Peterson?
18:59I thought St. John's would be more with them running the Big East.
19:05I thought St. John's would be more liked.
19:07But I guess people just love Darren Peterson, huh?
19:12I'll go St. I'll go say St. John's then.
19:15Where do the numbers like St. John's going?
19:19I'm not sure where we're at the part of the video where I'm not sure that this is even that entertaining. I will say I
19:23do want to take a small break.
19:25This is a personal plug. This is not a nothing sponsored here. If you're just looking for a smaller $25 league, this
19:32is like my community league here. The basement pool 2026. I'll have a link down below as well for this on ESPN.
19:40$25 to join. We're aiming for like 100 or so people. So a little bit of a different calculus there. Just wanted to
19:45put that out there that you know, that's also going to be a part of this video.
19:49Um but back to what we were talking about here.
19:52Where we're probably going to have to have St. John's lose to Duke, huh?
19:56Actually, with St. St. John's versus Duke.
20:01What what would How would Boozer react to Zuby and the physicality of that team?
20:10Oh, man. When we're thinking about such a big field, I think this is where we would maybe Man, St. John's isn't even a great
20:18leverage play, but match-up wise, I do really like that.
20:23We'll say Ohio State versus TCU. Let's just Let's just get that out the way.
20:26We're not having Duke lose there.
20:30What do you got? Ohio State.
20:32Okay, so Ohio State some leverage here.
20:34Fine.
20:35See round of 32.
20:41Who are some of like the sneakier Sweet 16 teams? So Illinois, of course, and you have Gonzaga, Louisville, Tennessee.
20:47Ooh, I like Tennessee.
20:50What's What's Tennessee's draw?
20:55I will be honest as well.
20:56Anybody out here still sticking around that uh this is not the basement anymore. I actually spent the last this past weekend moving into a new apartment. I
21:05don't even know how I'm going to intro videos anymore. That's why I'm in this new spot here and honestly why I haven't
21:09really even looked at the bracket. Um I sort of listened to the selection show, but I don't really have it memorized
21:14here. Oh, so people like so the leverage likes Tennessee over Virginia, huh?
21:21So, Virginia has some of the worst leverage. Okay, so now we're talking.
21:23Let me get Let me get some teams that I want to bounce early here.
21:27So, let's do Tennessee over Virginia. I like that a lot. I know that Virginia's been good this year, but I also just
21:32don't really buy it. I'm going to be honest with you. Uh I think this is actually one of Tennessee's like more
21:36sneaky fun teams.
21:38Uh let's let's bounce BYU. Now, I will be honest, this is a little backwards of how I usually do it. I usually sort of
21:42try and find the final four, but I I I do want to get some teams uh figured out here early, which I'll
21:51say I think UNC and BYU got to go.
21:54Huh, no percentage on this? Give me NC State or Texas over uh over BYU.
22:00Seems like that's the way to go with these round ones. Yeah, NC State or Texas.
22:05Uh did we already put VCU through?
22:12Think we did.
22:14Let's do Where's the other one I'm looking for?
22:21So, VCU, Utah State.
22:25Yeah.
22:27I think Utah State's going to be a sharp one, but give me Nova. Nova's actually not bad.
22:31Uh and I think that Utah State's not a terrible match up for them.
22:34Saint Louis for I think that I'm Georgia over Saint Louis, man.
22:37I I I get that Saint Louis has been pretty hot this year.
22:40Man, you're getting you're getting no value there, but sometimes you just got to pick what actually is going to happen.
22:46Should we do one crazy upset early like Hofstra over Bama?
22:49I could see it. Evan Myer has them at about double the odds of what the public's got. Oh, no.
22:56Underdogs have it at four. It's okay, so we'll go back to Bama.
22:58That's something else. Good Good on Underdogs for showing the um what's going to you know, like what the first round vibes are
23:08uh in all of these brackets.
23:11So, where's the other one? Where is Where is UNC?
23:14And BYU. Okay, so we have BYU losing.
23:16Where is UNC?
23:18UNC's a six seed, right?
23:26If I already had them losing and I've just been like looking y'all against VCU. I'm a dumb ass. It's okay.
23:31But, we need VCU losing to Illinois anyways. Unless what What is Can VCU make a run? No, no, no. Okay.
23:41I like where we're at right now.
23:43What's our sweet 16? We have Duke, St.
23:45John's.
23:47We got to figure out Louisville versus Michigan State here.
23:52So, Louisville's got and Michigan Dude, Michigan State I like Michigan State with Fears.
23:59And Izzo but man.
24:06These blue bloods get really steamed up here. Yeah, Michigan State pretty brutal. Yeah, give me Michigan State and then Michigan State over UCLA though.
24:13We'll go We'll go Michigan State in the Elite Eight.
24:16I think that's where they get a little bit of leverage. And Izzo's March, they have a good garden Fears.
24:22I'll I'll buy into that.
24:24Why not? Let's decide where the rest of our sort of like sweet 16 Gonzaga. Oh my god. Okay, Gonzaga has a
24:32ton of leverage here. Fine. We'll do Gonzaga.
24:34I don't even really like Gonzaga. We'll have them losing next round anyways.
24:37Then we have Miami versus Purdue. So, then we'll have Purdue over Gonzaga.
24:41Things definitely looking a little bit chalk.
24:48So, let's think this out. We got to figure out where Duke loses.
24:55BYU in the Elite Eight. We got to figure out where Houston loses as well. So, Houston in the Sweet Sixteen, who could
24:59they lose to?
25:05Houston's good. I I don't like They just don't really have like a good big.
25:09I like Sharp. I like Fleming's.
25:14So, Houston Okay, so Houston's going to lose to Illinois. Then we have Saint Mary's at 53% here.
25:23Evan Miya has them at 62 points. Evan Miya what are we doing?
25:26I couldn't name you a single player on Texas A&M's team. I'll be honest with you.
25:30So, Evan Miya hates Texas A&M, huh?
25:33Yeah, we'll go Saint Mary's. Fine.
25:36And then this is where we have Purdue winning that match-up anyways. Or no, we have Houston winning this match-up. We have Illinois. I like
25:47Man, Illinois versus Houston's a really tough match-up, huh?
25:50This is to get to Elite Eight.
25:56Houston should have like a 54% versus Illinois 37.9%.
26:03The numbers love Illinois, huh?
26:08Yeah, let's do it. We got We got to differentiate ourselves a little bit here.
26:12So, right now we have Duke surviving a little bit longer than I'd like them to.
26:20We want Duke to lose in the Elite Eight to Michigan State?
26:25I could see Izzo making that run. Oh man, I don't know.
26:29So, I guess this is where we have to sort of figure this out. Okay, so to make the Elite Eight out of Duke's region
26:38Ohio State, Saint John's This is where we would have to decide if
26:49we would want it to be Saint John's or Michigan State.
26:54Man, I kind of like St. John's make the St. John's to the final four?
26:58After winning the conference tournament, I know they did it last year.
27:01But this is a better team.
27:09Man.
27:11So Michigan State has a better chance than St. John's to make the final four, huh?
27:26So this could be Houston.
27:28But if we had Houston going through this, we would need Houston to like make the championship.
27:34Is kind of the issue.
27:39Cuz we do not know. Cuz Houston would have to be our our final four winner over Duke.
27:45In a perfect world, we don't have Duke in the final four. We have Shire choking at some point. Oh man, Shire choking
27:50against St. John's. I like this. I like this. We have to get weird. We have to.
27:53This There's going to be a lot of people in here.
27:55Um and then final four in a match up of Michigan State versus St. John's, I kind of like St. John's.
28:03Give me the Johnnies.
28:05Michigan State might even lose before this. I might even do Let me see this Elite Eight leverage once one more time.
28:14Could do Louisville, UCLA, or UConn.
28:20So this is would be Elite Eight to the Elite Eight Louisville to the Elite Eight, or no?
28:28So in terms of likelihood to make the Elite Eight Louisville versus Michigan State Louisville is down here at 11.8%.
28:39Cuz I don't like Michigan State that much. UCLA down here at 7.1%, not great.
28:45And then where do you got Yukon?
28:49Yukon only becomes a good pick if they make if they go to like the final four, huh?
28:55Let's do it. Let's Let's just bet on Izzo. Let's bet on Pitino. This would be such a good Elite Eight matchup and
29:00we're going to have St. John's in the final four.
29:02Why not?
29:06So, St. John's in the final four.
29:10Cuz I think that I think your best bet is to do them or Michigan State. Michigan State has more odds, but
29:16I mean at this like once we get to this point we're talking about same leverage.
29:21Let's do St. John's, [ __ ] it.
29:23St. John's in the in the final four.
29:28Let's figure out the rest of our final four.
29:35We'll do Illinois.
29:36Wow, this is going to be a really weird one.
29:40Do Illinois.
29:42We will do Michigan.
29:45And we will do either Arizona or Purdue. We're already getting a ton of leverage. Let's Let's do Arizona. Let's keep it Let's keep it
29:52chalk over here. We don't have to get too too crazy.
29:57What, Illinois over Michigan? God, this is tough cuz this is a year that I really do think is going to be chalk.
30:06Let's fill out the rest of this region.
30:10So, I like Flo- We haven't really talked about Florida.
30:13What How do the numbers like Florida? Okay, so Florida has plenty of leverage as well.
30:19So, that's what we're going to do.
30:19Actually, we're going to advance Florida to the championship game.
30:22As much as I like Illinois.
30:26We'll have Illinois falling short to Florida.
30:33Oh.
30:35I'm trying to think of like how how weird is too weird? Cuz one seed versus one seed is not weird at all. But, St.
30:41John's in the final four is probably just weird enough.
30:47Probably just weird enough.
30:51And then we have some other like elite eight teams that we could get really weird. So, we have 1 5 3 7 1 3 2
30:571 2 3 4 We have a six in Tennessee making the Sweet 16. Okay, so we're not too bad.
31:03We're not too bad in terms of chalk. I think that St. John's one's going to do a lot of heavy lifting for us. Now, I
31:07will say you guys are going to watch this. I'm going to submit this bracket, but it's probably dead cuz you guys are
31:11going to probably copy it. But, I'm just sort of showing what I'm thinking through um with these teams. Now, Clemson versus
31:17Iowa.
31:22What do we got for Clemson Iowa? So, Clemson's at 39.8%.
31:25I like Iowa, man, but Iowa's not beating Florida.
31:28Uh then we have Vanderbilt McNeese. I think it's McNeese sucks, man.
31:32Um like I I I don't think this is going to be a year of Cinderella. Like I I I don't think any of these double-digit
31:37teams um like I'm not scared of Troy uh whatsoever. Give me Nebraska.
31:44Now, Vanderbilt versus Nebraska to make the Sweet 16.
31:52I guess Vanderbilt's hot right now. Oh, man.
31:59What are the What are the odds you got in Nebraska getting in there? So, Nebraska's 40.4%. Vanderbilt is 51.5%.
32:06Huh.
32:09I guess give me Nebraska. I don't know.
32:10Those are two Those are two teams that I don't really care for. Wow, Bama versus Texas Tech is so bad.
32:20So, I guess the question becomes man, I I think I think if there's going to be a double-digit upset, it's going
32:27to be the Texas or Bama.
32:28And I guess that is kind of what you're looking at with like Akron here, but Akron's 29% picked.
32:37And then Hofstra's 40 So, you're getting no value on either of them.
32:42But, I'm going to say Akron.
32:48You know what? Let's Let's get a little weird here. Let's Let's put Akron in the in the Sweet 16. [ __ ] it.
32:55In terms of I am very curious like who has the best leverage among the Oh, what Who does Texas and NC State play?
33:02Who did we decide that they were going to uh lose to, I assume?
33:09Gonzaga.
33:13But, this is This sucks because Gonzaga has so much leverage already.
33:20Like, I would love to have Gonzaga lose here, but you're already getting People already don't like Gonzaga this year.
33:28So, it's like Yeah, no, that's fine. That's fine.
33:35As much as I would love to do that, I can't.
33:41Man, I might I might go against some of the leverage here and just kind of go with gut feel.
33:46Like, this is kind of like the perfect leverage bracket so far.
33:51But, we're going to mess around with some stuff in a second.
33:53Now, Kentucky versus Santa Clara.
33:57Wow, this is crazy. Like, look, the public is at 29.8% here. That's just like across ESPN, like Yahoo, CBS, everything. But, on Underdog,
34:07we're up to 41%. So, we'll just go Kentucky. We'll go Kentucky.
34:10Go Tennessee over Virginia.
34:14I know that we already picked Illinois to go far, but dude, I like this VCU team. They get hot and win their A-10 tournament.
34:25But, you're getting no leverage on them in the Sweet 16, huh?
34:28Only 8.7% to make it.
34:32Cuz VCU's like a sweet 16 like fun team.
34:35But I guess we'll go we'll go Akron as our sweet 16 fun team. And we'll again, we're just we're hoping that St. John's
34:40does a lot of heavy lifting.
34:47See what else I got to fill out.
34:51I think that we're almost done.
34:55What What have I missed?
34:59Round of 32.
35:03Okay, Kentucky. Oh yeah, we're going Iowa State. I like Iowa State. Ooh.
35:07What do I have going on here at the bottom of this bracket?
35:12Man, I like Iowa State too much to have them lose anytime before Michigan is what it comes down to.
35:20And then leverage champs.
35:22And you know what, man?
35:27I just can't see Arizona losing to Purdue.
35:30I think Michigan beats So this is to make the the last two teams. I guess the most leverage I'm going to get
35:39is Michigan versus Florida, which is what we're going to do.
35:42And then let's go on the other side.
35:43Let's go Florida over Michigan. Florida back-to-back though?
35:47What if Michigan just wins it?
35:52I'm trying to think if we got weirder enough here. I'll be honest with you. I don't know if we got weirder enough.
35:56Again, I think there's going to be hundreds to thousands of of brackets in this thing.
36:06Should we have gotten weirder than Michigan?
36:09Cuz I don't think Florida repeats. I would love to see them repeat.
36:13I don't think we see a winner that's not a one seed.
36:21I think the winner that I could see >> You know what? Oh man, this is tough.
36:38I think people are going to I feel like I think I think people are going to watch videos like this.
36:42Um and like Rick Run Good. I don't know if I mentioned Rick Run Good at the start of this video. I know he's made videos
36:47like this in the past. Shout out to him for being, you know, one of the I guess pioneers of this genre every year.
36:53But we're going to go against the leverage. We're going to go Arizona over Michigan.
36:58And we'll go Florida over Arizona. No, we're going to go Arizona wins it.
37:03Cuz I that's actually like what I truly believe. And like I said, sometimes you have to go Sometimes you have to go
37:07against the leverage or what the leverage is telling you.
37:13Illinois I don't know if Illinois can run with Houston, man.
37:20What's What's the leverage on Houston?
37:27Nothing good, huh?
37:31Yeah, Houston has some of the worst leverage to just make the final four but not the championship game. Like if you
37:34want to advance Houston through, they got to make the championship game is what it seems like.
37:41You know what? What?
37:43What if that's what we do?
37:47Arizona Houston championship?
37:52Rematch of the Big 12 title game?
37:58Cuz Florida scares me, too, man.
38:00Florida scares me with their lack of guard play. At least Houston has Fleming's and Sharp to fall back on at all times. Elite defense,
38:08Sampson.
38:10I think this is just a Big 12 year. I think the Big 12 is that good.
38:15Who do we have Kansas losing to?
38:18St. John's.
38:23All right.
38:24I think that's where we're going with. I think that's where we're going to lock in.
38:29In something this big, final score Let's say it's like, I don't know, like 71 to 65. Let's say like Say like 139.
38:43Uh let's go like 146, fine.
38:47Submit. There it is.
38:51That is done. On the Underdog app. One more time, things to plug. Check out the bracket battle over on Underdog.
38:59Links will be down there along with using my promo code if you are new to Underdog. Um I will also have a Pool
39:06Genius link if you want the public data.
39:08Again, this is all going to get super changed between now and Thursday. I will have this sheet down below. Uh I'll also
39:16have a link to my basement pool. Again, it's just my personal pool. $25 to join, one entry max. 19% uh or 80% the first,
39:2419% the second, 1% the third. So, we get 100 entries. We got 138 last year. Uh you would get 2,000 the first, 475 the
39:32second, 25 to third. Now, that's all I have for today. As always, thank you for watching and I will see y'all in
39:41the next one.
39:44>> Oh yeah.
39:46This is like a ah ah.
39:51Yeah.
39:52Oh yeah. Maybe it stuns.
39:55Like this froze.
39:57Ice cold.
39:58Oh oh.
40:00Ice around my body like I'm froze.
