0:00What's going on guys? It's Nick here, back with another video. Today we're going over running backs that I think the industry is ranking incorrectly
0:05right now. We're using expert consensus rankings as the proxy for industry. It's going to be for half PPR scoring. Also, I am not going to talk about Keaton
0:14Mitchell in today's video. We went over him two days ago, but he would have made the video as an underpriced late round
0:20running back. So, first up, Devon Achane, ECR has him as a running back seven, my running back 12. This is currently my largest early round stance
0:29against the market this season, and he was the first player added to the shoo-away list this season. I just have some concerns with both his floor and
0:38his ceiling this year, which it doesn't seem like the market has. It seems like the market is very much overlooking those concerns, and
0:46that's crazy to me because there's so many good players, not only in the first round, but in the top three rounds every
0:51season, but this season especially as well.
0:54You should feel locked in. Every single player you take in the first three picks, really the first four, but first three picks, you should feel
1:01unbelievable about their floor, their ceiling. The only way they disappoint you is through injury. That should be the case for every single player. So, I
1:10don't want to be taking someone at the end of round one that I don't feel that confident in. I mean, the Dolphins were
1:16bad last season as well, but Achane was still able to finish fifth in adjusted points per game last year because he was
1:22fourth in receiving yards among running backs, and he scored 12 touchdowns.
1:27That's really been the calling card, right, for Achane, is fantasy points are typically more scored in the receiving game and touchdowns.
1:34Sure, you can be Derrick Henry, right?
1:36You can be someone who has so many rushing yards that don't need receptions. Of course, he has the touchdowns, but you don't need the
1:44receptions because you have so many rushing yards, it doesn't matter if you have zero receptions all season.
1:49The problem is, I don't have as good of an outlook on those receptions and those touchdowns this season.
1:56We want those all to be there, especially for a first-round pick. And I just I just don't see it happening as
2:01much this year. Uh the Dolphins are going into the season pretty clearly projected as a bottom-five offense. I think most people will project them as a
2:09bottom-three offense. They could very well be the worst offense in the NFL. Uh they're also swapping from Tua at quarterback to Malik Willis. Uh Miami
2:19threw to running backs at the sixth highest rate last season among 36 qualified quarterbacks, Tua ranked 32nd in air yards per pass attempt. He was
2:30tied for 32nd in average time in the pocket, meaning um less time, not like the most time in the pocket. And he
2:37scrambled 11 times all season. Okay? He was a pure pocket-passing quarterback that did not remain in the pocket very long. And when he threw the ball, he
2:48never pushed it deep downfield. Malik Willis started one game last season, and he played a little bit another one as well. So, we'll give him like one and a
2:58half games last year. He had eight scrambles. So, I think that should show you the difference between the two of them. Eight scrambles in one and a half
3:06games for Malik Willis, 11 scrambles in a full season for Tua. Uh so, they're again transitioning from a quarterback who is not going to push the ball
3:16downfield, is never going to scramble, is not going to remain in the pocket.
3:20That's a huge environment where you're going to get a ton of dump-offs to the running back. They're transitioning from that to a quarterback that does like to
3:27push it downfield and will scramble at a top-three rate this season. That alone is going to really, really hurt Achane's receiving totals. Not only the floor of
3:37what they could be, it could be much scarier than people expect right now, but it also just caps the ceiling. You
3:43know, without a shadow of a doubt, he's not going to go off for like 100 receptions this season. And when you
3:48start removing ceiling cases from players in round one, that's not ideal cuz everyone in round one, even into round two, has an unbelievably high
3:58ceiling. If your player doesn't, then they need to get really lucky just to return value, and we don't really want that. And all of this is before even
4:05mentioning the loss of Mike McDaniel or the fact that, you know, defenses can very much sell out to stop Achane now.
4:11When he was going off, they at least had someone, right? They either had both Tyreek and Waddle or they at least had
4:17Jaylen Waddle on the offense. That is like the worst wide receiver room I've ever seen in my life. I mean, it's it's
4:23absolutely dreadful. I mean, Malik Washington, Tutu Atwell, Jalen Tolbert, maybe Chris Bell does something by the midway point of the season, but that is a horrible wide
4:35receiver room.
4:36I just don't see it. You don't want to be investing in the Dolphins offense really at all this season. If you feel
4:41like taking a shot on Malik Wilson a double quarterback build, go for it, but we certainly don't want to be investing
4:46in Miami in round one. If you can get Achane at like the end of round two, like the round two-three turn, that's a
4:53little bit more appealing, but that's not going to happen, especially in hometown redraft leagues. He's going to go earlier. I just There's There's no
5:00way. It never happens where he becomes the top player in the rankings if you're going to rank him five running back
5:06spots behind consensus because that means you're also putting some tight ends in there or one tight end in there.
5:11You're also putting a bunch of wide receivers in there, and it's just like it's He's not going to fall to the point
5:15where you get him this season. Uh next up, Kyren Williams, um ECR has him as a running back 14. He's my running back
5:2417. So, not a massive difference, but I will say he doesn't really fall very much past that 14 range. So, for some
5:31players, maybe they have an ECR around 14 for their position, but there's a lot of variance there. Sometimes people reach, sometimes no one wants them, and
5:38they fall pretty far. Kyren doesn't really fall very far, so even ranking him at 17, I typically don't end up with
5:43him. If in a 12-team league, uh I typically, you know, you're going to have on average player 8% of the time
5:49you're going to draft them, one out of 12. Uh maybe like 2%. Like just it doesn't happen very often that I get
5:55him. Now, he was an honorable mention if you remember in a video maybe 2 weeks ago uh because I hadn't really
6:01solidified my take on him yet uh and I wanted input from all of you. I kind of stayed in my case, but I wasn't totally
6:07sure what my stance was going to be on him. Uh since then, I have a much more locked-in take on Kyren this season. It
6:13will be against drafting him. And the main reason is Blake Corum. He did see his role Corum uh expand last year,
6:19ultimately averaging 5.1 yards per carry and 10 and a half carries per game over the second half of last season. Reports
6:27so far from the team are that they're trending towards an even split. That split getting tighter this season being a 50/50 split on early downs. I know
6:36it's easy to like roll your eyes at that because we've been saying this for years for Kyren. Oh, the backup's going to get
6:41work. The backup's going to get work.
6:42He's not efficient. They're not going to give him work. And like, you know, he's not efficient, right? He did a lot better last season, but he's
6:49not a running back that can unlimited touches dominate fantasy. He's going to need significant volume to hit in fantasy because he does never hit really on the
6:59receptions to high enough of a degree where he can make up for the inefficiencies in other areas. But, again, he's been getting the volume. So,
7:06it's been totally fine in fantasy.
7:09But, these rumors at least like make sense this year. It's not like, you know, a random rookie that we're saying to take work. It's not like someone who
7:17hasn't been involved. Corum was like legitimately good last season. Like it actually makes sense that they want to get him more touches cuz he was a very
7:25good running back. He added something that Kyren doesn't in terms of explosiveness. So, they're a great combination. It makes sense if you want
7:32to split two backs because Kyren is better at some things, Corum is better at other things. So, it just makes sense
7:38that they kind of rotate them in and out. And then you look at Corum, uh you can say, okay, they dominated last year.
7:44So they had a ton of games where they were winning. Was that it? Was it the fact that they would win by two, three,
7:49four touchdowns against some teams and that's when Kyren got work? No. Like ultimately, his work kept ramping up later in the season and three of his
7:57five highest snap share games all came in the playoffs. So that's the one thing with Kyren. It's like, oh well no, they
8:04like him the most, they use him in important games, they're saving him for the playoffs. That wasn't the case last season. They gave Kyren legitimate
8:11workload during the season. 10 and a half carries per game in the second half of the year. He rewarded them with 5.1
8:16yards per carry. And then they had three of his five highest snap shares come in the playoffs when obviously everything is on the line. I also think it's
8:23interesting that Kyren's two best receiving games also came in the playoffs and that the team this offseason has kind of talked about how
8:32he's improved his pass protection in the offseason, trying to get him the ball a little bit more on third downs. I still
8:38think Kyren gets the vast majority of goal line work. Like obviously Kyren will sometimes be in there, but most of the time when you're at the goal line,
8:45it'll be Kyren. So I I don't think he's going to be a terrible pick this season.
8:48My issue is if he's getting that, if he's then splitting the early down work, and the third down work we already know
8:55can't be that high because no team throws to the running back at a lower rate than the Rams. If Kyren, you know, takes more of that early down
9:04work and then also does mix in like they're kind of saying a little bit more on third downs. If the total pie for
9:10running back target is not very big and Kyren starts to eat into that, that can be really bad for again the floor and
9:15the ceiling of Kyren. And we could get to a situation where he's just not getting enough touches. He basically has to score a touchdown every week to pay
9:23off. And what if Kyren also takes some of that work? Like I know there's a lot of what ifs here, but the fact of the
9:29matter is he was very good last season.
9:32It makes sense that he's going to get a lot of touches. And basically what I want to think about with Kyren is like
9:36what does he got to do to burn me for not drafting him? Like, for me to look back at the end of the season and be
9:41like, man, I really screwed up. I should have taken him there. I could have won the championship or like, this person
9:47beat me because they had Kyren. It's probably what, like 15 touchdowns to truly beat you? Like, even if he scores 10 to 12 touchdowns,
9:55if he's getting fewer carries and fewer receptions, truly, like 10 or 12 touchdowns is not going to burn you that badly. He's going
10:02to need a spike season for touchdowns.
10:05And so, especially when, you know, there's still a lot of really good players on the board, um there's a player that we're going to talk about
10:11next going three rounds later uh that you can get very similar production from at a much lower opportunity cost. I don't know. I just kind of get to Kyren
10:19and I'm like, mhm, I just don't see it.
10:21I don't think he's going to burn me for kind of fading him this season, so I typically pass on him. Uh who is this
10:27running back though that's going three rounds later that can have similar production? Uh David Montgomery. Like, truly, I know there's a difference, right? I
10:34understand that uh Kyren probably has more locked-in touches, um probably is on is definitely on the better team, but you could argue
10:43situation-wise they're very similar.
10:45Both are going to be very good offenses with um very, very, very good defenses.
10:51Uh Houston has a nine and a half win total. I feel like people kind of still view Houston from the lens of last
10:56season where things kind of didn't go that well. Um I mean, they were still great team because of their defense, but
11:01their offense kind of faltered last season. Um They're a good team and they're going to win a lot of games and even if it is on
11:08the back of the defense, that's going to create a lot of positive game scripts in the second half where they're getting a
11:13lot of touches to David Montgomery. And let's be honest, like, there is no one pushing David Montgomery for early down work or goal line work on this offense.
11:23Woody Marks is going to mix in on passing downs in in two-minute work, uh but Monty is in line for just an
11:29incredible amount of carries this season. Uh he should get every single touch at the goal line and again a team with a great defense 9 and 1/2 win
11:37total. So there's going to be a lot of positive game scripts for him.
11:41Again, I have Monty as a running back 21 ECR has him >> [snorts] >> at 24. So not another huge difference,
11:47but that split is enough to where he does become the top player in the rankings at a pretty high rate and
11:53you're going to get a decent amount of him three spots ahead of ECR there. And really like I just want to be ending up
11:58with a lot of David Montgomery this season because I feel so confident that he's going to get the touches and the
12:03touchdowns and be solid in fantasy. I don't know that he necessarily has a ceiling to be like a top five running
12:08back, but that's a problem in rounds 1, 2, 3. Not when you start to get into round six, which is what ECR has him
12:15ranked at.
12:17Texans running backs didn't score that many fantasy points last season, but look at who the running backs were.
12:22Their lead backs were Nick Chubb. Like Nick Chubb in 2025 was actually the lead back of this team at times.
12:29He's unbelievably cooked. So I think we saw that last season. He I don't think he's going to be on the team this year.
12:34Woody Marks was the other back.
12:37Listen, like Woody Marks was was not good. He was 25-year-old rookie last season average 3.6 yards per carry. He kind of
12:43solidified that draft take people were worried about being like, you know, is he kind of like only a passing down running back is he not that good on the
12:51ground? They utilized him weirdly. Like that was the take going in and then it kind of came true and yet for a large
12:57part of the season he was like only getting early down work. They weren't throwing him the ball in the receiving game. So very weird. I don't know
13:02whether they like mis evaluated him or something, but the point is he wasn't that good. They don't have another running back they're going to give
13:09touches to. The Texans also last season just struggled a lot more than expected on offense because you had Stroud missing a few games. You had Nico
13:17missing a few games. Tank Dell was out for the whole season. Jayden Higgins was still developing in his rookie season.
13:24So I'm expecting, you know, a big bounce back from this offense this year. And if the defense is going to continue being
13:31like a nightmare for opposing offenses, the offense doesn't have to be that much better to create a lot of positive game
13:37scripts, a lot of games where Monty's racking up carries in the second half where he's getting in position to score much more often. So, I just think he's a
13:44great pick. The touches are locked in.
13:46You don't have to spend a top-four round pick to get him. And so, that opens up kind of an out for you in different
13:52builds. We know the drop-off at running back is very significant this season. If you get into a build where you're like,
13:58"Well, top running backs are gone. I'm going to take Jamarr Chase." And "Oh, the running backs are gone again. Maybe I'll take Brock Bowers." And you start
14:03going through rounds. Even if you take a running back in round three, you might start to get into a spot where you're
14:07like, "I need more running backs when I get into this round five, six range."
14:11And David Montgomery's staring at you and you're like, "Well, you know what?
14:14All I have to do is not screw up with this pick because I'm so locked in at tight end and wide receiver." Maybe you
14:22drafted a quarterback, something like that. You're so locked in in other spots. You basically just don't want to screw up the running back pick in these
14:28middle rounds. I don't think you can screw up the Monty pick. He's just going to be a good running back and there's a
14:32lot of value in that in the middle rounds. Again, not as much value of that in rounds two or rounds three if it
14:39doesn't come with a great ceiling. But, you don't care as much in round six, especially at running back cuz you might
14:45just want to lock in a solid running back two and that is what you're doing with David Montgomery.
14:50Moving a little bit later in drafts, we have Aaron Jones. ECR has him as the running back 37. He's my running back
14:5743. Jones is the exact mold of running backs that I do not think we should be drafting in the later rounds. He used to
15:04be an awesome pick, but he does turn 32 in December. 30 is usually kind of the cliff for running backs, but lately
15:12we've kind of seen that, you know, 30-year-old running backs, maybe a 31-year-old running back can start to get it done. That kind of age cliff has
15:19pushed later and later as time has progressed.
15:2232 is asking a lot of Aaron Jones and there's really just no ceiling whatsoever like he set eight-year lows in both rushing
15:32and receiving yards per game last year and he took a backseat to Jordan Mason in the red zone. He only saw 37%
15:40of the team's red zone carries. He's just not the same player that he used to be. He was 43rd in missed tackles forced
15:47per attempt among 49 running backs with at least 100 rush attempts last season.
15:51He was dead last in yards after contact per rush attempt. The hope is basically that okay, he's not going to score
15:59touchdowns. He's not going to get rushing yards but maybe he spikes in receptions but he averaged 4.9 yards per target last season only 2.3 receptions
16:07per game both eight-year lows. He also set a career low in yards per touch. So another year older
16:16I just don't see a need to be targeting targeting him in the later rounds cuz you're not even getting that floor. It's
16:22not like David Montgomery where you're like maybe he doesn't have a top five ceiling but he's going to lock in running back two. Aaron Jones is not
16:28going to be a lock in running back two.
16:29So you're like not going to want to start him and he's going to sit on your bench and you're going to be like wait a
16:33minute there's not even really a chance he breaks out at any point. So he's just kind of like clogging up your roster on
16:38your bench. You want to be using these later round picks at running backs that you know maybe have a little bit of a
16:43lower floor but you're not starting them right away so you don't care too much about that especially early in the season.
16:49But you want them to actually have a chance to be a difference-maker on your roster. And a running back that can
16:53still just be a running back two. I just don't see it for Aaron Jones this season. If he's going to see this drop
16:59in efficiency if he has no shot of scoring a lot of touchdowns if the receptions also aren't going to be there
17:06it's like what are you actually going to do for me and it's not that much.
17:10One of the running backs though that I think we should be targeting this range because they have a high ceiling is
17:15Jonathan Brooks. ECR has him as running back 42. He's my running back 34 in the rankings. The appeal for Brooks is
17:23twofold. First, I don't think Chuba is very good. Rico outplayed him by a lot last season. Uh and then Chuba once
17:30again showed that he's just not a difference-maker as a running back. As I said before, 49 running backs had at least 100 rush attempts last season.
17:39Every single one of them had at least one rush attempt of 15 or more yards.
17:45All but one, Chuba Hubbard. So, every other running back, 48 other running backs, could have at least one carry where they had an explosive run, 15 or
17:54more yards. Chuba not able to do that.
17:56Zero runs of 15 or more yards on 134 rush attempts last season. He was dead last in missed tackles forced per
18:04attempt. He was second to last in touchdown rate. He was third to last in yards after contact per attempt. That is
18:10terrible and it just opens the door for starting role for Jonathan Brooks if he can stay healthy. Let's not forget how
18:18good of a prospect Jonathan Brooks was when he was drafted. He would have been the second best running back in this
18:23year's class. It would have been very close between him and Price, but that's the general range he would have gone in
18:29in this draft. And I think people just kind of forget that because he's had the injuries. I think especially he's going
18:35to have a passing down role early on.
18:38So, early in the season there is no shot that he goes out there and he has 20 touches. Like you're not going to be
18:42looking at him after week one on waiver wire and be like, "Holy cow, he's 100% in your FAB. You got to go out and get
18:47Jonathan Brooks in leagues where he wasn't drafted." That is not going to happen. I think he'll be drafted everywhere, but point being, he's not
18:53going to just explode in week one. I think they give him a change of pace role to start. I think they give him
18:57work in the receiving game. And then he basically just ramps up every week that he is able to maintain his health. And
19:04every week that it becomes more and more and more evident that, again, Chuba Hubbard is just not that good of a
19:11running back, not that efficient, uh not that good at really anything. He's not explosive, he's not that great in the receiving game, he can't make people
19:18miss in the open field. Like he's just not breaking tackles, he's not doing anything when he's out there. He gets what's blocked for him, and that is
19:24absolutely it. As that becomes more and more and more apparent when you also look at the plays where Brooks is out
19:30there and he's forcing Mc missed tackles, and he's explosive, and he's good in the receiving game, they're going to give him more and more touches.
19:36So, um really you could put um Chuba in this video as well. I think the market is very much overrating Chuba. You don't
19:43want to be drafting these running backs that are very likely going to see their roles decrease as the season goes on.
19:49And if you are going to do it, at least do it on a really good team. This is the Carolina Panthers, right? If you've got
19:55to take you're like, "No, Nick, I think Chuba's like decent. I think he can kind of get it done." Do that for a running
20:00back on a really good offense because at least they can get lucky with touchdowns. It's not like the Panthers are that good of an offense, so we
20:06should not be drafting an inefficient, non-explosive running back on a bad team. At least take them on a good team.
20:13So, the market's overrating Chuba, they're underrating Jonathan Brooks. Uh maybe Brooks suffers another season-ending injury, but if he doesn't, he's going to be a starter on your
20:24fantasy team by the end of the season, and that's just not something you can say about really any other running back
20:30in this range. Um he's ranked as a 12th round pick by the industry. The only reason not to draft him 100% of the time
20:38that late is that he might get injured.
20:41Who cares about injuries that late?
20:43Shoot for the moon. If he does happen to like tear his ACL a third time, right?
20:49It's really just not going to hurt you that much. In round 12, he's what? Like your fourth or fifth running back?
20:55That's not going to hurt you losing that player.
20:58But what is going to happen to your team is if he ends up taking over this job and has a role in the receiving game and
21:03ends up as running back two, you got him round 12, you're going to have a really high-end upside to your season. You're
21:08probably going to make the playoffs based on that one pick. Those are the players you want to draft. So, those are
21:13six players that I think the industry just kind of has ranked wrong right now.
21:16If you want to see where I have every single player ranked, no matter what your scoring format is in my custom
21:21rankings on my website, thefantasyfootballadvice.com.
21:24There's also a ton of free content over there as well, including data from past seasons, daily trivia, free mock drafts.
21:32Soon, I think we're going to have like a team grade feature as well. Yeah, check out all the free content and also the
21:38rankings over there, thefantasyfootballadvice.com.
21:41So, that's it for this one. Thank you all for watching. Please leave a like if you are still here. Please subscribe to
21:46the YouTube channel or on Spotify. If you're new here, thank you all for watching.
