0:00What's going on guys? It's Nick here back with another video. Today we're going over who I think the best pick is
0:04in every round for 80p. I'm using an average of all the major platforms. You can see that for free on my website
0:10thefantisfadvice.com if you want to follow around. I'll add a graphic onto the screen so you can also just follow along there. But uh if you're watching
0:17this even one day after upload ADPs update there every day. So if you want to see the updated ADPs again the
0:23fantasy footballadvice.com you can sort by platform things like that. So, uh, we will start off in round one where everyone is a good pick. So,
0:31realistically, you kind of can't go wrong in round one. But my top overall value is James Cook just because I have
0:37him 1.3 spots ahead of ADP. So, definitely the smallest value you'll see today. Don't need to go too in depth here. We've talked about James Cook a
0:45lot, but I mean, he led the league in rushing last season, 32 touchdowns over the last two years. Looks like this year
0:52he's going to get more receptions, be more involved in the receiving game. He stayed very healthy in his career. He missed two games over the last four
0:59years. He's on a super stable offense.
1:02All these things very, very important in round one, right? I want a good player on a good team that I hope can stay
1:08healthy in all three areas of fantasy.
1:10And that is James Cook. He's also very explosive player. So, if there's anyone who could get lucky, it's someone who is
1:16on a great offense who's going to score a lot of touchdowns and someone who can bust off very long plays. You could just
1:22have a season where you get lucky with rushing touchdowns. uh those spike up uh and you bust off a couple 60 70 yard
1:28runs and all of a sudden you put together a season like Saquon had a few years ago but realistically you know
1:33there's even more upside for James Cook because he can actually use his receiving game. Now, am I predicting a year like what 2024 Sig Barkley? No. Uh,
1:41but he's going to have a very good season. Very, very safe pick. Awesome pick. Late first round. Round two. Ken Walker ADP of 19th overall. That's like
1:49the mid-second round. I have him 13th overall. Kansas City top 10 offensive line. Uh, no one can stack the box. I
1:57think that's one maybe potentially overlooked fact um with Ken Walker this season is you're going from a bad offensive line with Sam Darnold the
2:06quarterback and Sam Darnold played very very well last season. I don't want to say he's like a bad quarterback but if
2:11you're a defensive coordinator who are you more scared of right Sam Darnold or Patrick Mahomes you're terrified of Patrick Mahomes even if his pass
2:19catchers aren't that good. Um again we can debate how good the pass catchers are but I I don't think all of them are
2:25that amazing. It doesn't really matter.
2:27It's Patrick Mahomes. You could throw me out there and I'd be scared of Patrick Mahomes and that offense. So, you have
2:33that. No one is going to stack the box against Kansas City. He's got zero competition for early down touches or goal line touches. Now, we love the
2:42receptions in fantasy. Uh definitely lower reception upside for him than James Cook. But what I've been saying for a while here is, you know, if Ken
2:51Walker had that 60 70 reception upside in his range of outcomes, he'd easily be a mid first round pick. So you're
2:58getting that discount in round two for the fact that he'll be using a screen game. So his receptions will be very
3:02efficient on this offense, but he's not going to have, you know, 60 or 70 receptions. But that is okay because he's have so many rushing yards, tons of
3:09rushing touchdowns, plenty of usage in the receiving game to where he's going to be a great pick in fantasy. Um the
3:16touch and the touchdown upside is really what we're looking for there. And the certainty attached to it. You know, some people can like debate, you know, will
3:24they mix in other backs. I'd be more scared of that if one of their backups was a great early down back or if they
3:29didn't give him three or $43 million contract with near $29 million guaranteed. But you give a 26-year-old running back, still very much in his
3:37prime, a huge contract in free agency, and all of the backups are pass catching running backs. So, if they're ever going
3:44to mix those backs in, it is always going to be on obvious passing downs.
3:48Kansas City is a very good team. They're not as good as it used to be, but they're a very good team. There's going
3:53to be plenty of game scripts where they find themselves ahead. They're just running him over and over again. He's going to be efficient. He's going to be
3:59explosive. Going to get the touchdowns.
4:01all going to be there and the certainty is there with the contract and just the depth chart. You look at the players in
4:05this team, it's like there's no one pushing him for touches. Round three, Malik Neighbors um average ADP of 30.4 overall. That's going to be rising. Um I
4:14don't know where it's going to end up honestly. My guess right now and where I have ranked right now is a 23 turn. Um
4:21basically have him as like a late second round pick. I think that's probably what you want to be taking him at right now.
4:28I don't think in a hometown league he goes to 30, but that's what ADPs are suggesting right now. Um, if you were
4:36anticipating that, you know, getting him in the mid-3rd round, that would be an exceptional value. And I I still think honestly getting the two three turn is a
4:42great value. If he starts to go towards a two-3 turn, I can definitely see myself moving up to like the midse. I
4:49don't think you can really put him right now unless they come out and say he's 100% no restrictions 100% snapshot in
4:55week one unless that sort of thing starts to come out and where we really bump him up to maybe like the one two
5:00turn in that like Lamb Jefferson range unless that comes out which it won't I think the highest I can probably move
5:05him is like the mid-second round right after that tier of running back kind of stops you know that that like Saquon Ken
5:11Walker Chase Brown Hampton like that sort of range right where Brock Bowers is I would say like that's probably where you'd put
5:18Malik Neighbors, but right now two three turn, he's such a good pick and we know like, okay, he recovered very quickly
5:24from his injury. Was it too quick? We've said for years now, we know highly athletic uh young wide receivers recover faster from using the injuries than
5:34anyone else. We've known this for a very long time. If you have, you know, and I'm saying like the highest end athlete,
5:39because all these guys are great athletes, but like among NFL players, the highest end athletes who are also young, the data is just amazing for them
5:48recovering much faster than expected.
5:49So, it's not it's surprising how quickly he recovered, but it's not shocking if that sort of makes sense. Um, but again,
5:55you're getting that discount even knowing that he might be 100% pretty early in the season. Uh, he'd be a first round pick when 100% healthy. He's
6:01trending towards playing in week one.
6:04And I think the the benefit here is okay, maybe the projection is slightly lower to start the season and he's only
6:12returning like fourth round value, something like that. But that's not going to bur you, you know, at the two or three turn and he's going to be, you
6:18know, close to 100% by like mid-season, you have to think. And then you just get a first round pick basically in the
6:24second half of the season and where all the money is, where everything matters in the fantasy playoffs, final two weeks, fantasy semi-finals and finals at
6:31Detroit at Dallas. So, he gets two dome game shootouts in the semifinals and the finals when he's probably odds are close
6:42to 100%. So, if you want to be playing for championship, he's a very good pick to make. Um, he's probably going to be
6:49projected as like a top three wide receiver in those weeks. Um, I do some high stakes drafts and the other day I
6:54paired him with Jamar Chase. Imagine if my team can make it, you know, to the semi-finals in the finals and I've got
6:59two top three wide receivers and a pretty strong running back. I think I took Jeremiah Love, but I don't remember who the running back was on that team. I
7:08don't know. I just think you unlock a crazy high ceiling by taking him and a ceiling that you just really don't
7:13unlock with any other wide receivers going that range. So, at two, three turn, think he's awesome. Uh, round four, let's stick with the same team and
7:19go Scataboo. Um, I want to add some caveats here that I've been adding uh in in recent weeks. um ADP 41st overall. I
7:27have him 31st overall. So about 10 spots over ADP. He's a mid- fourth round pick.
7:31I'm in that like mid to late third round. Um this one is more positional strategy number one. I don't have him
7:36ranked like I think it's one running back running back spot higher than consensus. So I'm not out here saying that, you know, I'm 10 running back
7:45spots ahead on Skyaboo. I just think if you're looking running back in this range, he basically is like the last running back I feel really strongly
7:54about in a tier after him, I start to have a lot more question marks. And so if you get to this spot of the draft in
8:00the fourth round and you need running back, meaning you only have one through three rounds or you didn't go running back running back in the first two
8:07rounds, I think he's a great pick because after him, my confidence really starts to fall off. Now, there are still reasons to be concerned about him. There
8:13have been some reports that um maybe you have um Ton Tracy Jr. mixing in a little bit more on passing downs than expected,
8:22but there's only been a few reports of that. There have been a lot more reports that have been very positive about
8:26basically this being Scataboo's backfield and that unless he gets injured, um it's basically the Tyler Tra is not going to have that much weekly
8:33role. So, we'll kind of see how that news keeps shaking out. But I list him here and I've talked about him as a
8:39mustdraft player because there are some great wide receivers going at the end of the first round into the early second round. And if you start off with
8:45something like an Aman Raw, a Jefferson or a Lamb and then you pair in like a round two running back or maybe you go
8:52with like a Devont or or an Olave in round three and you start off with like Aman Ross St. Brown, Chase Brown and
8:59Devont Smith, something like that and you get to round four. I really don't want to be taking I mean I love Lovelin
9:07I love the wide receivers there but I kind of don't want to be exiting round four with only one running back and so
9:12Scataboo being there in round four just gives you that out if you are someone who prefers drafting these incredible wide receivers in round one or you
9:20prefer round three not going running back again uh and drafting wide receiver for a second time. If you prefer doing that and you like your builds that way,
9:28I think Scataboo is just a great pick in round four because he offers you that out. But again, as I've been saying, if
9:33I started off um like James Cook, uh Ken Walker, let's just say two great picks in the first two rounds. If I started
9:40off like that, I'm less inclined to take Scataboo as my third uh third running back. I would probably prefer to lean
9:49towards Lovelin in round four. Um I prefer if we get really good health news on Luther Burden, maybe to go with him
9:55in that range. Uh, but I would just prefer to go wide receiver or tight end if I start a front back running back.
10:02Hope that makes sense. Uh, and also on the website I'm working on it right now.
10:05I'm gonna have a draft guide that's going to kind of detail all of this and just my general thoughts on strategy,
10:12but that's one big strategy point in round four. How' you start off in the first two rounds? If you went running
10:18back, running back, my preference is not to go running back in round four. It's go wide receiver or Loveland. and I love
10:24love him this season. Round five, uh Dave Montgomery, you should expect this.
10:28I have said for a very long time now that Dave Montgomery is my highest confidence pick this season. Um ADP like
10:3553rd overall or something like that.
10:37He's a mid-fifth round pick right now.
10:38Uh I have him uh closer to the mid3rd round. So very significant value. Very confident here. Zero competition for early down goal line touches. They can
10:48talk up Woody Marks all they want. Woody Marks, we knew coming out of the draft, is not some high-end prospect. He's
10:55solid. He's a good running back, but he's much more of a change of pace third down back. And that is totally fine.
11:00That is a great compliment to David Montgomery. And it does not mean that Woody Marks has no value. He's going to
11:05be valuable to this team. When they find themselves down by a couple scores, when they find themselves in two and four-minute drills, they will be looking
11:12to Woody Marks. So Dave Montgomery is not going to be featured. But in round five, I don't need him to be featured. I
11:17just need him to have the early down roll on lock and get all the touchdowns and that is going to happen to David
11:23Montgomery. Um you also love that this team just a very good um defense, right?
11:29You love that in second half of games because they're going to look at this in the fourth quarter and be like, "Okay,
11:32we're up 10. Teams cannot score on us and if teams are forced to throw against us in obvious passing situation, we're
11:38gonna destroy them." So don't screw up.
11:40Don't play it super risky on offense.
11:42Run the ball and get in close, run the ball. I think we're going to have a lot of games where they get up in the second
11:46half, it's the fourth quarter and it's Monty, Monty, Monty, Monty, just over and over and over again. They get to the
11:52red zone, he's going to be only guy they use up close. I just think he's a very safe pick, a very high upside pick
11:59because he can have, you know, 12, 13 rushing touchdowns go along with a lot of rushing yards. And he's not going to
12:04be a zero in the receiving game. He averaged 213 touches in the three years that he played with Jir Gibbs, right? He
12:11averaged 25 receptions per season in those three years with Jir Gibbs. Okay, he's not gonna have 10 receptions. Jir Gibbs is a much better running back than
12:22Woody Marks, right? So, we can kind of count 25 as his floor, right? I mean, like for them to use him way less in the
12:30receiving game than Detroit did. I know Detroit's a higher behind offense running backs a little bit more, but the point would be for him to rack up 25
12:36receptions per seasons in three years playing with Gibbs. Now he's going to play with Woody Marks. He can be used in
12:42the receiving game. He will be used in the receiving game. He will have receptions. He's not going to have 60 or
12:4670, but again, if he had 60 or 70, he'd be a first round pick. Uh round six, Parker Washington, uh going to late
12:52sixth round on average. A few sites are doing the heavy lifting there, though.
12:56ESPN is a mid eighth round pick. Sleeper CBS, he's a late seventh round pick. So, there's a few sites that have him very,
13:02very high. Uh they're lifting up that average ADP. If you are drafted on ESPN Sleep or CBS, and you leave your draft
13:08without Parker Washington, you did something wrong. Um, even if you had to take him in round six, love him there.
13:14Uh, he is the best pick in round six.
13:15So, obviously, if you get him in seven or eight, that's exceptional. Um, you just want to be in on the Jaguars
13:20offensive season. It's going to be very good. He's going to be their top target.
13:24He's having an amazing camp. Uh, he's looked just awesome all off season. The coaches love him. Uh Trevor Lawrence, it seems like Trevor Lawrence is like just
13:34hyperfocusing on him at times in camp.
13:37Uh and he's just a very safe wide receiver pick because we just the certainty with the offense is there.
13:43Trevor Lawrence is like m maybe not the quarterback people thought when he was drafted like this potential generational quarterback, but he's a very good
13:50quarterback and he's not going to be bad this season. Liam Cohen is a great coordinator. He's a head coach, but you
13:56know, he's a great offensive coordinator, great offensive mind, great play caller. You know, he's going to run a good offense. You know, he's going to
14:02run an efficient offense. So, year two in that system with a great quarterback, a very high-end offense. There's touchdown upside, there's reception
14:10upside, yardage upside, everything is there for Parker Washington. And every report from the team, B reporters, everything is that he is the top target
14:18on this team. And while you can argue that they have a lot of wide receivers, well, they're going to throw the ball a
14:23lot. They're going to be in three wide receiver sets, a ton. And we know Travis Hunter is going to be a part-time wide
14:29receiver. We know Jacobe Myers is, you know, easily third among the three starting wide receivers. Uh we know Brian Thomas Jr. is more going to be in
14:38that deep threat role, more going to be pushing downfield. He's going to be someone that opens things up for Parker Washington. You want Brian Thomas Jr. to
14:46come back and have a great year because defenses are terrified of him deep downfield. Even if in fantasy that makes him a lot more polarizing, a lot more up
14:54and down. You don't love that because he had those down weeks are really going to hurt you. In actual NFL football, if
15:00defenses are horrified when they start running at him deep downfield, you don't even need to throw him the ball. They're just going to push coverage way back,
15:08always have someone over the top, and that just opens up the middle of the field for Parker Washington to shred teams. And it seems like that is going
15:15to happen this season. So, he's an exceptional pick in round six. Round seven, Justin Herbert. So, uh you're going to see in round seven and round
15:23eight. And you can really, again, I'll have the article on the website, but you can see in this video like what we're
15:29kind of aiming to do. It's not perfectly set up exactly how my strategy is going to come out in the article. But for the
15:36most part, we're attacking running backs early. We're shifting our focus a little bit to wide receiver in the middle rounds. And we still want a high-end
15:44quarterback, but do we need to be first in taking the high-end quarterback? Not necessarily. Because the difference between your Drake May, Jaden Daniels,
15:52Caleb Williams, and your Justin Herbert, spoiler alert, round eight, Trevor Lawrence, the difference there is not going to be that great. But in round
16:00seven, round eight, we do see a pretty big drop off in wide receiver and especially running back uh talent and just like the floor and ceiling of these
16:09backs. Um, so it's a great spot to take quarterback and not only that, you're not sacrificing upside with Herbert or again Trevor Lawrence I'll talk about in
16:17a second. But with either of these two quarterbacks, you're not sacrificing upside at all, which is awesome. So for Justin Herbert, top five offensive line,
16:24that should be all I have to say. Like truly, that's all I should have to say.
16:28Even if you didn't have the amazing playmakers around him, you didn't have the coaching upgrade, you didn't have any of that stuff, just hearing Justin
16:36Herbert's going from a horrible offensive line because of injuries, not because of the talent that was there to start the year, but because of injuries,
16:42a horrible offensive line to a top five offensive line, you right there should think top three upside for Justin Herbert because he is that talented of a
16:49player, that great in fantasy because of the mobility as well. He had the most scramble yards of any quarterback in the
16:54league last season. But think about it.
16:56I mean, you get that top top five offs of line, which is a huge upgrade from last season and in recent years. Uh, you
17:02get tons of great playmakers around him, elite system upgrade for passing efficiency. We know that Tua is not that good, right? Like I think everyone can
17:11agree Tua not that good of a quarterback, but he was top seven. An adjusted net uh yards per pass attempt under Mike McDaniel. Uh, when Joe Alt
17:20was healthy enough to play uh last season, at least half the snaps, it happened four times. They went 4-0, 27 points per game. Herbert cleared uh 70%
17:30completion rate three of the four games, season long pace of 4,600 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns. So, all of this is to say when you had a healthy
17:41offensive line last season, Justin Herbert was pacing at like a top three quarterback rate. He added on 33 rushing yards per game in those games. And
17:48again, I said he led the entire league in scramble yards last season. So, you have that. You've got the on the other
17:54end, Mike McDaniel takes Tua, a quarterback we know is not that good.
17:58And literally three years ago led the league in passing yards. Two years ago, top five and passing yards per game. The
18:06reason people think of Tua as just not as good. It well because he's not that good. We know it was the system, but
18:13again, that should tell us something about Justin Herbert here. But the real reason people aren't as excited is because of the huge drop off last
18:19season, the huge drop off um with like the concussions and stuff from Tua, but also the fact that even though Tua was
18:26like leading the league in passing, top five and passing next season, he didn't run it. And because that occurred, he wasn't that high of a fantasy producer.
18:35And because that happened, we see Mike McDaniel go to the Chargers here and we're like not as excited. I am. But
18:42people are not as excited as they should be because they're like, "Well, well, Tua wasn't that great of a quarterback."
18:48He took Tua and made him top seven in adjusted net yards per pass attempt and backto-back years, top five in total
18:54passing yards. If Justin Herbert is going to be top five in passing yards while also leading the league in scramble yards, he's someone that can
19:02run for touchdowns, throw for 40. I mean, like, he could lead the league in total touchdowns and passing yards and be the number one quarterback. That is
19:09absolutely in his range of outcomes. And to get him in the seventh round after people have all taken a ton of
19:15quarterbacks, it's just such amazing value. So, you want to be all in. I want this season Herbert and Lawrence to be
19:23my two most rostered quarterbacks because strategy-wise, they're an amazing part of the draft, but they have the upside to push even these hyper
19:30mobile quarterbacks. And that's something that can give you huge value.
19:34If everyone else is taking them in rounds four, five, six, you can wait until seven or eight to take yours and
19:38they compete with or pass those guys in production. The wide receivers and running backs that were available to you in rounds three or rounds not three,
19:46rounds four, five, I guess three for Josh Allen, but Josh Allen's still an okay pick in round three, but rounds four, five, and six, they have so much
19:52more upside than the rounds seven and eight running backs and receivers. So, the value there is awesome. But as for Lawrence, um, again, early eighth round
20:01pick, great value. I have him around ahead of ADP. If you don't have quarterback by this spot, please take Trevor Lawrence this season. He was
20:09definitely a little bit lucky last season. Nine rushing touchdowns. That's not going to repeat. But he has mobility. He will score rushing
20:18touchdowns. Okay. Also, they've got four great receivers, as I talked about before. That reduces injury risk. There are some quarterbacks who really only
20:25have two good receivers, one injury, and all of a sudden, um, you know, you've got much lower end production. It doesn't even matter who gets hurt. Like
20:33truly like it doesn't matter which wide receiver gets hurt. You can just bring the other one in. You can run more. Two
20:38wide receiver sets. Even in three wide receiver sets, you've got four great wide receivers right now. If one gets injured, you just play the other three
20:45at elevated snap shares. So there's way less risk of someone getting injured in this offense and that impacting Trevor Lawrence. And just think about how good
20:53he was when Jacobe Myers was traded for last season. He was the number one overall quarterback in fantasy from week nine on last season. And that was
21:02without Travis Hunter at all. And say what you want about Travis Hunter, he is going to come in on offense, be highly
21:08efficient. He's going to have schemed usage. He's going to be one of their better wide receivers on like a per route basis. He's probably, given the
21:16reports that we've seen, only going to play like half the snaps on offense. But if you mix him in, you keep the other
21:22wide receivers healthier, you keep them fresher, and you're designing specific plays for the specific talent of Travis Hunter. The efficiency of this offense
21:30coming off the chart. And again, number one quarterback in all of fantasy after they trade for Jacqui Myers, you add in
21:37Travis Hunter to that, you can't tell me he doesn't have a lot of upside. So, like I said, Herbert Lawrence around
21:41seven, eight, I want to be targeting them in that range. It's a great spot strategy-wise. I want them to be my most
21:47drafted uh quarterbacks this season.
21:49Round nine, Josh DS. And honestly, his ADP needs to go up. Like, and I I need to draft him more. I've drafted him a
21:55ton. I'm easily 2x the field right now.
21:58I need to draft him more often. I've moved him up over Alec Pierce. I think that gap needs to start growing. The
22:04reports are not good. They're really, really bad on Alec Pierce. He has not practiced since March. I feel like we're just like, they were kind of assuming
22:10like, oh yeah, he had the surgery. um everything's gonna be fine because that's what the team has kind of been telling us. But it does seem like
22:17they've been lying through their teeth.
22:19Um they are incentivized to do that because it kind of gets people to stop talking about. Yeah. Yeah. He's fine.
22:25He'll come back soon. If it's all if they're like, "Oh yeah, he's like slow recovery. It's not going good." Like it's it's much more of a story here. So,
22:32um you get why they would lie about it.
22:34But it continues to be, "Oh, a couple weeks. Oh, a couple weeks. Oh, a couple weeks. Okay, we're a couple weeks from
22:39week one. Maybe we're like a month from week one, but like you know we're not that many weeks from week one and he has
22:43not practiced in any capacity since March. That is not good. He's got another injection in the foot. Clearly the recovery is not going that well. And
22:54already like we were like, okay, it's not like he's he's got a ton of receptions in his career at most. Alec
23:01Pierce 47 receptions. So I get he gets the big contract. We've talked about a lot this off seasonason how you can't
23:07just look at the contract for a wide receiver like him because he does way more for your NFL team than he does in
23:14fantasy. It's a difficult role playing that outside ex-wide receiver running the tough routes, getting deep downfield and being highly efficient downfield.
23:24There's many wide receivers who can get downfield. Marquez Valdez Scanley can get downfield. Taekquin Thornton can get downfield. But can you actually win at
23:32the X and can you actually come down with those receptions downfield? Those two cannot. Alex Pierce has shown for back-to-back seasons that he can. And
23:39that's so valuable to an NFL team. But for fantasy, it's not a role that leads to a ton of receptions. And so when you
23:46have, you know, maybe he expands, maybe he gets more intermediate routes, but he kind of needed camp to help him do that
23:52and kind of ramp up. So you lose Pitman's 111 targets. You don't replace it with anything to thus point. And now
23:59I mean is is Alec Pierce even going to be playing in week one? Is he going to open on like the pup or something? These
24:05are things that we didn't think could occur and now they might. And so you basically have Josh Downs and a bunch of
24:09scrubs at wide receiver. Even if they do a trade or a signing, I guess they could trade for someone too, but even if they
24:15do a signing, like Diggs is gone. Debo's gone. So now you're basically sitting there with Keenan Allen. We know that Keenan Allen is slated for basically
24:22only a third down role. He's going to mix in on obvious passing situations, third down, things like that where it's like he's not going to have even close
24:30to full snap share. Only going to play 11 personnel. So Josh Downs is going to have a huge target share this season.
24:36Tons of receptions coming his way. He's an amazing pick in this range. And you add on the fact that Daniel Jones looks
24:43good. And they're like, "Wow, we don't we're not sure how, but he's recovered way faster than expected. He looks like he's going to be close to 100% to start
24:50the season." Remember, this was the number one team in the NFL before he got injured. So, it is a great offense. It
24:56is a quarterback that maybe overperformed last season, but clearly performed well in this system. And we might have the number one target on this
25:03team in round nine. I mean, Josh Downs is such a good pick. I'm a little bit frustrated. I I didn't draft him as
25:09often. Again, I'm like at least 2x the field right now, so I have plenty of him. We've taken him in these mock
25:14drafts. You know, we've been on him, but he should be a mustdraft player at this point. I'm probably going to add him to
25:19that article. Uh, round 10, Jaden Reed.
25:23Uh, I don't know why I said it so weird.
25:24Jaden Reed, uh, early 10th round pick by ADP. I have him as a late eighth round pick. Um, you know, he benefits from at
25:31least the reporting right now is that they're going to be more pass heavy, more 11 personnel. That helps him. Uh, also helps him that, you know, they're
25:38just not going to be able to rotate wide receiver as much because they lose Romeo Dobs, they lose on Wix, they don't
25:43really replace with anyone. Maybe Savian Williams steps up, but I just don't I think he's more of that scheme usage type player. I don't think he can like
25:49command targets. Um so you have that positive and for a player like um Christian Watson, right? Well, he was already on a pretty elevated snap
26:00share. He was always going to be out there on um even when they do to you know two wide receiver sets, things like
26:05that. So going to more 11 um if anything can hurt him on a per route basis and passing more and stuff like that like
26:12there's less of an impact if you were already a full-time player. But for Jaden Reed, the problem has always been, well, they don't play 11 as much. And
26:20even when they do, they rotate these guys so much. They have a five wide receiver rotation. Well, if it's only a
26:25three wide receiver rotation and they're in 11 more, his routes can go way up.
26:30And he's always been a good player in yards per route run production when he's out there, the question has been, will
26:35he be out there? And if the answer to that every other season has been like no, not enough to matter, but now it's
26:41yes and the ADP is not really rising, we can capitalize on that. So if it continues to be positive there, that's
26:49great. Um has been positive all off season. And let's be honest, can Christian Watson stay healthy? I think he's primed for a great season. I think
26:56he is a great wide receiver. He's proven in what, four straight years that he cannot stay healthy. If he gets injured
27:02again, that just skyrockets the value of Jane Reed. Uh round 11, Stfan Diggs. I do think his AD will go up, but if he
27:10continues going around 11, he is the best pick in that range. The loss of Tonsel hurts. Uh but it hurts the
27:16running backs more than it does Stfane Diggs and especially like maybe hurts um McLuren a bit as well because a lot of
27:22his production can come downfield. Worse offensive line, that means the pressure is going to come a little quicker, means more dump offs. Well, that might benefit
27:29Stfan Digs because he's not going to be running deep downfield. Um, he's going to be used in more that shallow area of
27:34the field. So, it's really just not an injury that impacts him too much. Uh, it's not like he was getting all his
27:38value from like touchdowns as well. So, even if they score less, again, it's not going to matter for Stefon Diggs. People
27:44can say that maybe he's kind of cooked and like, yeah, obviously he's not, you know, the digs we were drafting in like
27:49round three, but he had an elite first downs per run last season, uh, really strong yards per run. Like, underlying metrics were great. He just didn't like
27:58run a ton of routes. There were a lot of games where they just didn't have him out there when they did let him run a
28:02lot of routes. He performed really well and he's a great compliment to McLaren.
28:06You know, he's he's going to run his routes in a different area of the field.
28:09Um he's clearly the number two there. I mean, they do not have like they're talking about Luke McAffrey as their number three because Antonio Williams
28:14isn't kind of quite there yet. Like this is not a situation where the three, four, five receivers are any good. Um I
28:21think Diggs has one year left. He was 16th in adjusted points per game last season. like maybe we don't fully remember it, but he had a pretty good
28:28year. He just wasn't on a full snapshare. Um he's been taken well outside the top 40 wide receivers.
28:32There's a clear path to upside. Will he be top 10? Absolutely not. Um but if you got the wide receiver 20 and you took
28:39him as like the wide receiver 45, that's going to be a good value. If he can perform as like a lowend two kind of
28:45flex play for you in round 11, you will take that every single time. So a great pick in this range. Uh round 12, Katon
28:52Mitchell. I've talked about how this is my second most confident take on the season. Draft David Montgomery. That's the most confident. Draft Keaton
28:59Mitchell. It's just like there's too much upside for round 12 running back.
29:03It happens as a mid ninth rounder. I will continue being multiple rounds ahead of ADP no matter what is ADP is.
29:09Um not a lot to go off. No one is in round 12 on. Uh but the ceiling is incredible. We know the Chargers are
29:16going to be better than the public is expecting right now. He's getting downfield targets in camp. You don't see that at running back and when you do,
29:23you draft them. Like truly, running backs get dump offs, running backs get screen passes behind yard of scrimmage, line of scrimmage. Like you look at the
29:30end of the season in the air yards for a lot of running backs who even had decent production in the receiving game is like
29:34negative 50. Like they don't get targets downfield, but those are the absolute best routes. You see a downfield wheel route for a running back and you know,
29:45get them onto your roster because those are very valuable in fantasy. We're seeing it multiple times from this offense. Um, we're seeing quotes that
29:53like, you know, this is why we had Amarin Hampton last in that second round running back rankings video behind Saquon, Ken Walker, and Chase Brown
30:00because they're going to use these other backs. And while I definitely think Mike McDaniel's blowing smoke here being like, oh, we're going to, you know, hot
30:07hand with all three. Okay, first of all, who do you think the hot hand's going to be? It is going to be a Mario Hampton
30:11more often than not. He is a better running back than Katon and Vidal. But the point I think we draw from these
30:17quotes and we draw from these practices is it is not just going to be a Marin Hampton out there 90% of snaps. And
30:23Marin Hampton's a lead back and he's a good player and he's going to have a lot of value this season. But there's a role
30:27for a player that Mike McDaniel specifically wanted on this team. The single most explosive running back in the NFL last season in terms of, you
30:34know, how many plays he can have over 20 miles per hour. Like this kid gets going elite speed. Uh he's going to be
30:43utilized by this coaching staff. This offense is great. Offensive line is great. He's going to bust off long touchdowns this year. He's going to have
30:48work in the receiving game. He's just going to be a player you want in round 12. Round 13. Chicka Kongquo uh taking
30:55the mid-13th threat now and have him as a mid 11th rounder. Another player on the Commanders. Just not worried about um tonsil injury when it comes to
31:03players who are going to have that shallower AOT. Um, Chick is pretty locked in as that third pass catcher, third most targeted player on offense.
31:11Is there a world where he gets more targets than Fund Digs? Absolutely. He's great after the catch, great athlete, great quarterback play, like, you know,
31:20definitely um some upside here. Is he going to be a top five tight end?
31:25probably not, but I think he's kind of, you know, if you're searching for tight end in this range and you're like, you
31:30you missed out on the top end, you didn't want to take the mid-range of tight end, you you wanted to really
31:34double dip at the position. He's someone that they specifically went after in free agency. Again, very good quarterback play. They are not going to
31:42throw to the running backs all that much this season. Um, they mentioned wanting to have him on deep routes this season.
31:48We love seeing that. They're practicing that in camp, like getting him running deep downfield. Well, obviously those are very high upside routes for tight
31:55ends. So, when you mix in the fact that we know that they're going to give him screen passes, right? They're going to
31:59give him screen passes, shallow stuff.
32:00So, he has that baseline. If he's also mixing out, you know, mixing in corner routes, post routes, things like that, that's going to add upside to his his
32:08uh, you know, outcome in fantasy. So, love taking him on teams that forgo the tight end position early on, pass it in
32:14the middle rounds, want to double dip late. He should be one of those options you heavily consider. him and like Isaiah Likely should be two you really
32:20consider uh double dipping late on. Uh round 14, I'm just going to throw both Stribbling and Trey Harris in there.
32:26It's a very similar bet on both of them.
32:28Both very high upside, of course, lowish floors, but high upside uh wide receivers in this range. When you're searching for a league winner, you're
32:36searching for a breakout, elite offense, elite play caller, high-end quarterback.
32:40If you can hit on those three things and then you can hit on the opportunity increasing more than expected for a
32:45high-end snapshare, that's a player that um we want to target in fantasy. And the kicker with both of them is also they're
32:53on teams that very much value running the ball. Teams that want and need their wide receivers to be great run blockers.
33:01Now, it is consensus that Stribbling was the best run blocking wide receiver in this draft class. You've got all these, you know, injuries on San Fran that
33:10always happens. Um, you've got Piell done for the season. Evans is out right now with a quad injury. Stribbling's having a great camp. You've still got KD
33:17returning from injury. Like, there's a path here where Stribbling is like out there for a ton of snaps. Very, very high-end upside. But the same thing for
33:25Trey Harris. I mean, Mike McDaniel really likes Trey Harris. We know he was great at run blocking. He he was out
33:31there as a rookie in 13 personnel.
33:33That's one wide receiver on the field.
33:34That could happen again this season. He could elevate into 12 personnel. He could overtake Quinton Johnson if Quinton Johnson continues to not be able
33:40to catch the football. Like I don't know, there's upside for both these guys. I love taking both of them late.
33:45Uh other option round 15 is Ryan Fenoi.
33:48Uh if you're looking for wide receiver in this range, mid 15th round pick I have as a mid-13th round pick. Dallas,
33:54we've been talking about teams going with 12 personnel, 13 personnel, a bunch more two tight end sets, not going to happen in Dallas. Dallas wants three
34:01wide receivers on the field. Teams are going to be terrified. CD terrified of George Pickkins. They're not going to be able to focus on uh Ryan Fenoy. He's
34:10going to get single coverage. He's gonna get slot corners. He's going to get linebackers at times. That's going to make him a very high upside pick. And
34:16that's without even an injury. You get an injury to CD Lamb. You get an injury to George Pickins, all of a sudden the
34:24upside's insane. You're probably starting him every week as a wide receiver, too. So, you've got two potential kind of like he's quote
34:30unquote wide receiver handcuff to two different players. But I think the baseline production is going to still outperform this ADP and he could still
34:37be someone even if both of them are healthy that in shootouts in in these dome games they have like you could
34:43probably mix him into the flex spot and he won't be that bad for you and that should not be the case for a 15th round
34:47pick at wide receiver. And then finally round 16 Terren Ferguson coming off the board in the early 16th round. I have in
34:54the mid13th round legit chance that Terrence Terren Ferguson is the third most targeted player on this team. They do not throw to running backs. They do
35:02not have a third wide receiver that's going to be targeted a lot on this team.
35:06Um, they were in love with him. I mean, it's why we talked about him pretty heavily in kind of like dynasty stuff
35:12last year, just like answering dynasty questions, being like, "Listen, when a team is this in love with a prospect and they have this good of a system on
35:21offense, you maybe want to be focusing on them in dynasty, even if we know it's going to be a slow burn." And it was a
35:26slow burn. I mean, like, they used him deep downfield last season, but you could never even touch him in fantasy.
35:31But they've been consistent all off seasonason that like he showed them a lot last year. He's improved as a player. He can be that number three
35:38option. If he really turns into that option, what if Puka gets hurt? What if Adams gets hurt? These are not exactly
35:44the two like healthiest wide receivers in the NFL all of a sudden. I mean, if Terrence Ferguson is the second most
35:50targeted player on this team and Stafford's putting together another MVP season, yeah, I'll take that as my round 16 tight end. uh and especially on on
35:59you know tight end premium leagues definitely be targeting him. Uh but yeah, great pick later on if you're double dipping. You don't wait this late
36:06and take only Terrence Ferguson. So those are who I think the best picks are in every round. Let me know who you
36:11agree with and disagree with the most in the comment section down below. And if you want to draft with my custom dynamic
36:17rankings, you can see that at my website the fantasyfootadvice.com.
36:21The website got a massive upgrade this off seasonason, so you're definitely going to want to check that out before drafting. All right, please leave a like
36:28if you are still here. Please subscribe on Spotify or YouTube if you're new here. But I'll be back on Friday.