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The BEST Pick in EVERY Round! - 2026 Fantasy Football

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

37 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 12, 2026
Published
Wed, August 12, 2026
39
Player insights
39
Players mentioned
Topics
Alec PierceAntonio WilliamsBrian Thomas Jr.Chase BrownChigoziem OkonkwoChristian WatsonColston LovelandDavante AdamsDavid MontgomeryDevin SingletaryIsaiah LikelyJahmyr GibbsJakobi MeyersJames Cook
Player analysis

Player insights

39

Alec Pierce

NegativeInjury21:58

Ken Walker has downgraded Alec Pierce due to severe injury concerns, noting he has not practiced since March and recently received another foot injection, suggesting the team's recovery timeline has been misleading. Furthermore, his role does not translate to high fantasy reception volume, and his availability for Week 1 is in question.

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Antonio Williams

NegativeDepth Chart28:12

Antonio Williams is not yet ready to compete for a significant role in the Commanders' wide receiver rotation, leaving him behind Luke McCaffrey on the depth chart.

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Brian Thomas Jr.

NegativeRole23:56

Ken Walker explains that Brian Thomas Jr. will operate primarily as a deep threat, which benefits Parker Washington by forcing defenses to play deep and opening up the middle of the field.

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Chase Brown

NegativeProjection29:53

Chase Brown is used as a benchmark for high-end running back rankings, positioned ahead of other backs like Amarin Hampton.

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Chigoziem Okonkwo

PositiveSleeper30:54

Chigoziem Okonkwo is a recommended late-round tight end target; while currently drafted in the mid-13th round, Ken Walker values him as an 11th-rounder. He is locked in as a primary pass catcher with upside for high target volume and is being utilized in deep route packages in camp.

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Christian Watson

NegativeInjury25:56

Christian Watson's fantasy value is tied to his health, as he has struggled to stay on the field for four consecutive years. If he suffers another injury, it would significantly increase the fantasy value of teammate Jaden Reed.

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Colston Loveland

PositiveValue9:06

Colston Loveland is a preferred target in round four for drafters who have already secured their running back depth, as he offers high upside at the tight end position.

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Davante Adams

NegativeUsage35:10

Ken Walker highlights Davante Adams' health as a factor that could influence the target share for other players like Terrence Ferguson in the Rams' offensive scheme. Ken Walker notes that Davante Adams' health is a variable that could increase Terren Ferguson's role in the offense.

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David Montgomery

PositiveValue10:24

David Montgomery is the highest confidence pick this season, representing significant value as a mid-fifth round ADP (53rd overall) player who should be valued closer to the mid-third round. He has zero competition for early-down and goal-line work, and his role is bolstered by a strong defense that will likely lead to run-heavy game scripts in the second half.

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Devin Singletary

PositiveValue8:46

Devin Singletary is considered a must-draft player in round four for drafters who need a running back, as he is expected to command the backfield unless injured. While there is minor noise about Tyrone Tracy Jr. on passing downs, the prevailing reports indicate Singletary will maintain a significant weekly role.

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Isaiah Likely

PositiveSleeper31:59

Ken Walker recommends Isaiah Likely as a high-upside late-round tight end target, specifically for managers looking to double-dip at the position in the later rounds.

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NegativeUsage19:54

Ken Walker uses Jahmyr Gibbs' historical usage as a benchmark, noting he averaged 213 touches and 25 receptions per season over three years, which serves as a floor projection for the player currently being discussed in the backfield.

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Jakobi Meyers

PositiveUsage20:53

Ken Walker credits the acquisition of Jakobi Meyers as a catalyst for Trevor Lawrence's elite performance, noting Lawrence was the overall QB1 from week nine on after Meyers joined the team; Meyers is currently identified as the third option among the team's starting wide receivers.

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James Cook

PositiveValue0:31

Nick identifies James Cook as the top overall value pick in round one, ranking him 1.3 spots ahead of his current ADP. Cook is highlighted for his league-leading rushing performance, 32 touchdowns over the last two years, and projected increased involvement in the receiving game. He is considered a safe, explosive option on a stable offense with a strong track record of health, possessing even more upside than a high-end Saquon Barkley-style season.

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Jayden Reed

PositiveValue25:19

Jaden Reed is a value pick, currently drafted in the early 10th round by ADP but valued as a late 8th-round pick. His outlook improves due to a shift toward 11-personnel and a condensed receiver rotation, which should increase his route participation.

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Josh Allen

NegativeValue32:26

Ken Walker considers Josh Allen an acceptable pick in the third round, but advises that the value proposition of waiting until rounds seven or eight for quarterbacks like Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence is superior due to the higher upside of wide receivers and running backs available in the middle rounds.

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Josh Downs

PositiveBreakout21:49

Ken Walker is heavily invested in Josh Downs, drafting him at twice the market rate, and argues that his current ADP is too low. Downs is a must-draft player expected to command a huge target share this season, as the team lacks other reliable wide receiver options and the quarterback situation is promising.

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Justin Herbert

PositiveValue21:41

Ken Walker identifies Justin Herbert as a high-upside target in the seventh or eighth round, citing a top-five offensive line and an elite system upgrade under Mike McDaniel as drivers for top-three fantasy potential. Herbert's mobility, including leading the league in scramble yards last season, combined with projected passing efficiency, makes him a potential league-winning value compared to quarterbacks drafted in rounds four through six.

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Keaton Mitchell

PositiveSleeper28:52

Keaton Mitchell is a high-upside target in round 12. He is noted for his elite speed and ability to run downfield routes, which is rare for a running back. Despite the presence of other backs, he is expected to be utilized in an explosive offense with a strong offensive line.

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Keenan Allen

NegativeRole23:35

Keenan Allen is projected to have a limited role, specifically slated for third-down situations and 11-personnel sets. He will not see a full snap share, making his fantasy utility restricted to specific passing scenarios.

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Kenneth Walker III

NegativeProjection29:53

Kenneth Walker III is used as a benchmark for high-end running back rankings, positioned ahead of other backs like Amarin Hampton.

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Luke McCaffrey

NegativeDepth Chart28:09

Luke McCaffrey is currently positioned as the Commanders' number three wide receiver, as Antonio Williams has not yet developed enough to challenge for that role.

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Luther Burden

PositiveSleeper9:54

Luther Burden is a potential target in round four, contingent on receiving positive health news regarding his status.

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Malik Nabers

PositiveValue4:05

Malik Nabers is an exceptional value at his current 30.4 ADP, with a target draft range at the 2/3 turn. Nick ranks him around 23rd overall and expects his ADP to rise. While his projection may be slightly lower early in the season due to injury recovery, he is expected to be near 100% by mid-season, offering first-round upside for the fantasy playoffs, including favorable dome matchups in the semi-finals and finals.

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Matthew Stafford

PositiveProjection35:20

Ken Walker projects Matthew Stafford to have another MVP-caliber season, serving as the primary catalyst for the fantasy upside of secondary pass-catchers in the Rams' offense, such as Terrence Ferguson.

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Michael Pittman

NegativeUsage23:38

Ken Walker notes that the offense has lost Michael Pittman Jr.'s 111 targets from last season and has yet to replace that production.

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Parker Washington

PositiveValue20:50

Ken Walker identifies Parker Washington as the best pick in round six, noting that while his average ADP is inflated by certain sites like ESPN and Sleeper, he is a must-draft player if available in the seventh or eighth rounds. Trevor Lawrence is reportedly hyper-focusing on Washington in camp, reinforcing his status as a top target in an efficient offense.

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Puka Nacua

NegativeUsage35:06

Ken Walker notes that Puka Nacua's health status is a key variable for the target distribution of the Rams' offense, specifically regarding the potential for Terrence Ferguson to see increased volume. Ken Walker mentions Puka Nacua's health as a factor that could elevate Terren Ferguson's target share if Nacua were to miss time.

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Quentin Johnston

NegativeDepth Chart33:25

Ken Walker suggests that Trey Harris could potentially overtake Quentin Johnston on the depth chart if Johnston continues to struggle with catching the football.

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Saquon Barkley

NegativeProjection2:08

Saquon Barkley is used as a historical benchmark for rushing upside, with Nick noting that James Cook has the potential to replicate a high-end Barkley-style season due to his explosive playmaking and touchdown potential. Saquon Barkley is used as a benchmark for high-end running back rankings, positioned ahead of other backs like Amarin Hampton.

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Stefon Diggs

PositiveValue27:02

Stefon Diggs is considered the best pick in the 11th round and a strong value outside the top 40 wide receivers. Despite age concerns, his underlying metrics like first downs per route run and yards per route run remain elite. The offensive line injury to Laremy Tunsil may benefit Diggs by forcing the quarterback into quicker, shallow-area throws, providing a path to low-end WR2 or flex production.

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Terrance Ferguson

PositiveSleeper35:17

Ken Walker recommends Terrence Ferguson as a late-round tight end target, particularly in tight end premium leagues. His upside is tied to Matthew Stafford potentially having another MVP-caliber season, which could allow Ferguson to emerge as a secondary target in the Rams' offense.

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Terry McLaurin

NegativeMatchup27:17

Terry McLaurin's fantasy outlook is negatively impacted by the injury to Laremy Tunsil, as his production relies on downfield routes that require time for the quarterback to develop plays behind a stable offensive line. He remains the primary receiver for the Commanders, with Stefon Diggs serving as a complementary piece who operates in different areas of the field.

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Travis Hunter

PositiveUsage21:02

Ken Walker expects Travis Hunter to be highly efficient on a per-route basis; while he will be utilized as a part-time wide receiver and may only play half the offensive snaps, his presence allows for schemed usage and keeps other receivers fresh.

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Tre Harris

PositiveSleeper32:08

Ken Walker identifies Trey Harris as a high-upside wide receiver target in the 14th round, noting his potential for increased snap share and his role in an offense that values run-blocking wide receivers.

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Trevor Lawrence

NegativeValue20:01

Ken Walker recommends Trevor Lawrence as an early eighth-round target, ranking him ahead of his current ADP. Lawrence was the QB1 from week nine onward last season. Walker emphasizes that Lawrence's four-receiver depth chart reduces injury risk and that the addition of Travis Hunter will further boost offensive efficiency. While his nine rushing touchdowns from last season may not repeat, his mobility remains a key asset.

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Tua Tagovailoa

NegativeProjection28:31

Ken Walker uses Tua Tagovailoa as a benchmark for Mike McDaniel's offensive system, noting that while Tagovailoa is not an elite quarterback, he achieved top-seven adjusted net yards per pass attempt and top-five passing yardage totals under McDaniel's coaching, which serves as a positive indicator for Justin Herbert's potential in the same system.

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Tyrone Tracy

NegativeUsage8:17

There are conflicting reports regarding Tyrone Tracy Jr.'s role, with some suggesting he may mix in more on passing downs than initially expected. However, these reports are limited compared to the positive news regarding Devin Singletary's primary role, and the majority of reports indicate the backfield belongs to the primary starter.

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Woody Marks

NegativeRole10:47

Woody Marks is viewed as a solid change-of-pace and third-down back for passing situations and two-minute drills, but he is not a high-end prospect or a threat to early-down and goal-line roles. Ken Walker notes that other backs in the system are significantly better, implying Marks will have a limited share of backfield work and receiving opportunities.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

350
0:00What's going on guys? It's Nick here back with another video. Today we're going over who I think the best pick is
0:04in every round for 80p. I'm using an average of all the major platforms. You can see that for free on my website
0:10thefantisfadvice.com if you want to follow around. I'll add a graphic onto the screen so you can also just follow along there. But uh if you're watching
0:17this even one day after upload ADPs update there every day. So if you want to see the updated ADPs again the
0:23fantasy footballadvice.com you can sort by platform things like that. So, uh, we will start off in round one where everyone is a good pick. So,
0:31realistically, you kind of can't go wrong in round one. But my top overall value is James Cook just because I have
0:37him 1.3 spots ahead of ADP. So, definitely the smallest value you'll see today. Don't need to go too in depth here. We've talked about James Cook a
0:45lot, but I mean, he led the league in rushing last season, 32 touchdowns over the last two years. Looks like this year
0:52he's going to get more receptions, be more involved in the receiving game. He stayed very healthy in his career. He missed two games over the last four
0:59years. He's on a super stable offense.
1:02All these things very, very important in round one, right? I want a good player on a good team that I hope can stay
1:08healthy in all three areas of fantasy.
1:10And that is James Cook. He's also very explosive player. So, if there's anyone who could get lucky, it's someone who is
1:16on a great offense who's going to score a lot of touchdowns and someone who can bust off very long plays. You could just
1:22have a season where you get lucky with rushing touchdowns. uh those spike up uh and you bust off a couple 60 70 yard
1:28runs and all of a sudden you put together a season like Saquon had a few years ago but realistically you know
1:33there's even more upside for James Cook because he can actually use his receiving game. Now, am I predicting a year like what 2024 Sig Barkley? No. Uh,
1:41but he's going to have a very good season. Very, very safe pick. Awesome pick. Late first round. Round two. Ken Walker ADP of 19th overall. That's like
1:49the mid-second round. I have him 13th overall. Kansas City top 10 offensive line. Uh, no one can stack the box. I
1:57think that's one maybe potentially overlooked fact um with Ken Walker this season is you're going from a bad offensive line with Sam Darnold the
2:06quarterback and Sam Darnold played very very well last season. I don't want to say he's like a bad quarterback but if
2:11you're a defensive coordinator who are you more scared of right Sam Darnold or Patrick Mahomes you're terrified of Patrick Mahomes even if his pass
2:19catchers aren't that good. Um again we can debate how good the pass catchers are but I I don't think all of them are
2:25that amazing. It doesn't really matter.
2:27It's Patrick Mahomes. You could throw me out there and I'd be scared of Patrick Mahomes and that offense. So, you have
2:33that. No one is going to stack the box against Kansas City. He's got zero competition for early down touches or goal line touches. Now, we love the
2:42receptions in fantasy. Uh definitely lower reception upside for him than James Cook. But what I've been saying for a while here is, you know, if Ken
2:51Walker had that 60 70 reception upside in his range of outcomes, he'd easily be a mid first round pick. So you're
2:58getting that discount in round two for the fact that he'll be using a screen game. So his receptions will be very
3:02efficient on this offense, but he's not going to have, you know, 60 or 70 receptions. But that is okay because he's have so many rushing yards, tons of
3:09rushing touchdowns, plenty of usage in the receiving game to where he's going to be a great pick in fantasy. Um the
3:16touch and the touchdown upside is really what we're looking for there. And the certainty attached to it. You know, some people can like debate, you know, will
3:24they mix in other backs. I'd be more scared of that if one of their backups was a great early down back or if they
3:29didn't give him three or $43 million contract with near $29 million guaranteed. But you give a 26-year-old running back, still very much in his
3:37prime, a huge contract in free agency, and all of the backups are pass catching running backs. So, if they're ever going
3:44to mix those backs in, it is always going to be on obvious passing downs.
3:48Kansas City is a very good team. They're not as good as it used to be, but they're a very good team. There's going
3:53to be plenty of game scripts where they find themselves ahead. They're just running him over and over again. He's going to be efficient. He's going to be
3:59explosive. Going to get the touchdowns.
4:01all going to be there and the certainty is there with the contract and just the depth chart. You look at the players in
4:05this team, it's like there's no one pushing him for touches. Round three, Malik Neighbors um average ADP of 30.4 overall. That's going to be rising. Um I
4:14don't know where it's going to end up honestly. My guess right now and where I have ranked right now is a 23 turn. Um
4:21basically have him as like a late second round pick. I think that's probably what you want to be taking him at right now.
4:28I don't think in a hometown league he goes to 30, but that's what ADPs are suggesting right now. Um, if you were
4:36anticipating that, you know, getting him in the mid-3rd round, that would be an exceptional value. And I I still think honestly getting the two three turn is a
4:42great value. If he starts to go towards a two-3 turn, I can definitely see myself moving up to like the midse. I
4:49don't think you can really put him right now unless they come out and say he's 100% no restrictions 100% snapshot in
4:55week one unless that sort of thing starts to come out and where we really bump him up to maybe like the one two
5:00turn in that like Lamb Jefferson range unless that comes out which it won't I think the highest I can probably move
5:05him is like the mid-second round right after that tier of running back kind of stops you know that that like Saquon Ken
5:11Walker Chase Brown Hampton like that sort of range right where Brock Bowers is I would say like that's probably where you'd put
5:18Malik Neighbors, but right now two three turn, he's such a good pick and we know like, okay, he recovered very quickly
5:24from his injury. Was it too quick? We've said for years now, we know highly athletic uh young wide receivers recover faster from using the injuries than
5:34anyone else. We've known this for a very long time. If you have, you know, and I'm saying like the highest end athlete,
5:39because all these guys are great athletes, but like among NFL players, the highest end athletes who are also young, the data is just amazing for them
5:48recovering much faster than expected.
5:49So, it's not it's surprising how quickly he recovered, but it's not shocking if that sort of makes sense. Um, but again,
5:55you're getting that discount even knowing that he might be 100% pretty early in the season. Uh, he'd be a first round pick when 100% healthy. He's
6:01trending towards playing in week one.
6:04And I think the the benefit here is okay, maybe the projection is slightly lower to start the season and he's only
6:12returning like fourth round value, something like that. But that's not going to bur you, you know, at the two or three turn and he's going to be, you
6:18know, close to 100% by like mid-season, you have to think. And then you just get a first round pick basically in the
6:24second half of the season and where all the money is, where everything matters in the fantasy playoffs, final two weeks, fantasy semi-finals and finals at
6:31Detroit at Dallas. So, he gets two dome game shootouts in the semifinals and the finals when he's probably odds are close
6:42to 100%. So, if you want to be playing for championship, he's a very good pick to make. Um, he's probably going to be
6:49projected as like a top three wide receiver in those weeks. Um, I do some high stakes drafts and the other day I
6:54paired him with Jamar Chase. Imagine if my team can make it, you know, to the semi-finals in the finals and I've got
6:59two top three wide receivers and a pretty strong running back. I think I took Jeremiah Love, but I don't remember who the running back was on that team. I
7:08don't know. I just think you unlock a crazy high ceiling by taking him and a ceiling that you just really don't
7:13unlock with any other wide receivers going that range. So, at two, three turn, think he's awesome. Uh, round four, let's stick with the same team and
7:19go Scataboo. Um, I want to add some caveats here that I've been adding uh in in recent weeks. um ADP 41st overall. I
7:27have him 31st overall. So about 10 spots over ADP. He's a mid- fourth round pick.
7:31I'm in that like mid to late third round. Um this one is more positional strategy number one. I don't have him
7:36ranked like I think it's one running back running back spot higher than consensus. So I'm not out here saying that, you know, I'm 10 running back
7:45spots ahead on Skyaboo. I just think if you're looking running back in this range, he basically is like the last running back I feel really strongly
7:54about in a tier after him, I start to have a lot more question marks. And so if you get to this spot of the draft in
8:00the fourth round and you need running back, meaning you only have one through three rounds or you didn't go running back running back in the first two
8:07rounds, I think he's a great pick because after him, my confidence really starts to fall off. Now, there are still reasons to be concerned about him. There
8:13have been some reports that um maybe you have um Ton Tracy Jr. mixing in a little bit more on passing downs than expected,
8:22but there's only been a few reports of that. There have been a lot more reports that have been very positive about
8:26basically this being Scataboo's backfield and that unless he gets injured, um it's basically the Tyler Tra is not going to have that much weekly
8:33role. So, we'll kind of see how that news keeps shaking out. But I list him here and I've talked about him as a
8:39mustdraft player because there are some great wide receivers going at the end of the first round into the early second round. And if you start off with
8:45something like an Aman Raw, a Jefferson or a Lamb and then you pair in like a round two running back or maybe you go
8:52with like a Devont or or an Olave in round three and you start off with like Aman Ross St. Brown, Chase Brown and
8:59Devont Smith, something like that and you get to round four. I really don't want to be taking I mean I love Lovelin
9:07I love the wide receivers there but I kind of don't want to be exiting round four with only one running back and so
9:12Scataboo being there in round four just gives you that out if you are someone who prefers drafting these incredible wide receivers in round one or you
9:20prefer round three not going running back again uh and drafting wide receiver for a second time. If you prefer doing that and you like your builds that way,
9:28I think Scataboo is just a great pick in round four because he offers you that out. But again, as I've been saying, if
9:33I started off um like James Cook, uh Ken Walker, let's just say two great picks in the first two rounds. If I started
9:40off like that, I'm less inclined to take Scataboo as my third uh third running back. I would probably prefer to lean
9:49towards Lovelin in round four. Um I prefer if we get really good health news on Luther Burden, maybe to go with him
9:55in that range. Uh, but I would just prefer to go wide receiver or tight end if I start a front back running back.
10:02Hope that makes sense. Uh, and also on the website I'm working on it right now.
10:05I'm gonna have a draft guide that's going to kind of detail all of this and just my general thoughts on strategy,
10:12but that's one big strategy point in round four. How' you start off in the first two rounds? If you went running
10:18back, running back, my preference is not to go running back in round four. It's go wide receiver or Loveland. and I love
10:24love him this season. Round five, uh Dave Montgomery, you should expect this.
10:28I have said for a very long time now that Dave Montgomery is my highest confidence pick this season. Um ADP like
10:3553rd overall or something like that.
10:37He's a mid-fifth round pick right now.
10:38Uh I have him uh closer to the mid3rd round. So very significant value. Very confident here. Zero competition for early down goal line touches. They can
10:48talk up Woody Marks all they want. Woody Marks, we knew coming out of the draft, is not some high-end prospect. He's
10:55solid. He's a good running back, but he's much more of a change of pace third down back. And that is totally fine.
11:00That is a great compliment to David Montgomery. And it does not mean that Woody Marks has no value. He's going to
11:05be valuable to this team. When they find themselves down by a couple scores, when they find themselves in two and four-minute drills, they will be looking
11:12to Woody Marks. So Dave Montgomery is not going to be featured. But in round five, I don't need him to be featured. I
11:17just need him to have the early down roll on lock and get all the touchdowns and that is going to happen to David
11:23Montgomery. Um you also love that this team just a very good um defense, right?
11:29You love that in second half of games because they're going to look at this in the fourth quarter and be like, "Okay,
11:32we're up 10. Teams cannot score on us and if teams are forced to throw against us in obvious passing situation, we're
11:38gonna destroy them." So don't screw up.
11:40Don't play it super risky on offense.
11:42Run the ball and get in close, run the ball. I think we're going to have a lot of games where they get up in the second
11:46half, it's the fourth quarter and it's Monty, Monty, Monty, Monty, just over and over and over again. They get to the
11:52red zone, he's going to be only guy they use up close. I just think he's a very safe pick, a very high upside pick
11:59because he can have, you know, 12, 13 rushing touchdowns go along with a lot of rushing yards. And he's not going to
12:04be a zero in the receiving game. He averaged 213 touches in the three years that he played with Jir Gibbs, right? He
12:11averaged 25 receptions per season in those three years with Jir Gibbs. Okay, he's not gonna have 10 receptions. Jir Gibbs is a much better running back than
12:22Woody Marks, right? So, we can kind of count 25 as his floor, right? I mean, like for them to use him way less in the
12:30receiving game than Detroit did. I know Detroit's a higher behind offense running backs a little bit more, but the point would be for him to rack up 25
12:36receptions per seasons in three years playing with Gibbs. Now he's going to play with Woody Marks. He can be used in
12:42the receiving game. He will be used in the receiving game. He will have receptions. He's not going to have 60 or
12:4670, but again, if he had 60 or 70, he'd be a first round pick. Uh round six, Parker Washington, uh going to late
12:52sixth round on average. A few sites are doing the heavy lifting there, though.
12:56ESPN is a mid eighth round pick. Sleeper CBS, he's a late seventh round pick. So, there's a few sites that have him very,
13:02very high. Uh they're lifting up that average ADP. If you are drafted on ESPN Sleep or CBS, and you leave your draft
13:08without Parker Washington, you did something wrong. Um, even if you had to take him in round six, love him there.
13:14Uh, he is the best pick in round six.
13:15So, obviously, if you get him in seven or eight, that's exceptional. Um, you just want to be in on the Jaguars
13:20offensive season. It's going to be very good. He's going to be their top target.
13:24He's having an amazing camp. Uh, he's looked just awesome all off season. The coaches love him. Uh Trevor Lawrence, it seems like Trevor Lawrence is like just
13:34hyperfocusing on him at times in camp.
13:37Uh and he's just a very safe wide receiver pick because we just the certainty with the offense is there.
13:43Trevor Lawrence is like m maybe not the quarterback people thought when he was drafted like this potential generational quarterback, but he's a very good
13:50quarterback and he's not going to be bad this season. Liam Cohen is a great coordinator. He's a head coach, but you
13:56know, he's a great offensive coordinator, great offensive mind, great play caller. You know, he's going to run a good offense. You know, he's going to
14:02run an efficient offense. So, year two in that system with a great quarterback, a very high-end offense. There's touchdown upside, there's reception
14:10upside, yardage upside, everything is there for Parker Washington. And every report from the team, B reporters, everything is that he is the top target
14:18on this team. And while you can argue that they have a lot of wide receivers, well, they're going to throw the ball a
14:23lot. They're going to be in three wide receiver sets, a ton. And we know Travis Hunter is going to be a part-time wide
14:29receiver. We know Jacobe Myers is, you know, easily third among the three starting wide receivers. Uh we know Brian Thomas Jr. is more going to be in
14:38that deep threat role, more going to be pushing downfield. He's going to be someone that opens things up for Parker Washington. You want Brian Thomas Jr. to
14:46come back and have a great year because defenses are terrified of him deep downfield. Even if in fantasy that makes him a lot more polarizing, a lot more up
14:54and down. You don't love that because he had those down weeks are really going to hurt you. In actual NFL football, if
15:00defenses are horrified when they start running at him deep downfield, you don't even need to throw him the ball. They're just going to push coverage way back,
15:08always have someone over the top, and that just opens up the middle of the field for Parker Washington to shred teams. And it seems like that is going
15:15to happen this season. So, he's an exceptional pick in round six. Round seven, Justin Herbert. So, uh you're going to see in round seven and round
15:23eight. And you can really, again, I'll have the article on the website, but you can see in this video like what we're
15:29kind of aiming to do. It's not perfectly set up exactly how my strategy is going to come out in the article. But for the
15:36most part, we're attacking running backs early. We're shifting our focus a little bit to wide receiver in the middle rounds. And we still want a high-end
15:44quarterback, but do we need to be first in taking the high-end quarterback? Not necessarily. Because the difference between your Drake May, Jaden Daniels,
15:52Caleb Williams, and your Justin Herbert, spoiler alert, round eight, Trevor Lawrence, the difference there is not going to be that great. But in round
16:00seven, round eight, we do see a pretty big drop off in wide receiver and especially running back uh talent and just like the floor and ceiling of these
16:09backs. Um, so it's a great spot to take quarterback and not only that, you're not sacrificing upside with Herbert or again Trevor Lawrence I'll talk about in
16:17a second. But with either of these two quarterbacks, you're not sacrificing upside at all, which is awesome. So for Justin Herbert, top five offensive line,
16:24that should be all I have to say. Like truly, that's all I should have to say.
16:28Even if you didn't have the amazing playmakers around him, you didn't have the coaching upgrade, you didn't have any of that stuff, just hearing Justin
16:36Herbert's going from a horrible offensive line because of injuries, not because of the talent that was there to start the year, but because of injuries,
16:42a horrible offensive line to a top five offensive line, you right there should think top three upside for Justin Herbert because he is that talented of a
16:49player, that great in fantasy because of the mobility as well. He had the most scramble yards of any quarterback in the
16:54league last season. But think about it.
16:56I mean, you get that top top five offs of line, which is a huge upgrade from last season and in recent years. Uh, you
17:02get tons of great playmakers around him, elite system upgrade for passing efficiency. We know that Tua is not that good, right? Like I think everyone can
17:11agree Tua not that good of a quarterback, but he was top seven. An adjusted net uh yards per pass attempt under Mike McDaniel. Uh, when Joe Alt
17:20was healthy enough to play uh last season, at least half the snaps, it happened four times. They went 4-0, 27 points per game. Herbert cleared uh 70%
17:30completion rate three of the four games, season long pace of 4,600 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns. So, all of this is to say when you had a healthy
17:41offensive line last season, Justin Herbert was pacing at like a top three quarterback rate. He added on 33 rushing yards per game in those games. And
17:48again, I said he led the entire league in scramble yards last season. So, you have that. You've got the on the other
17:54end, Mike McDaniel takes Tua, a quarterback we know is not that good.
17:58And literally three years ago led the league in passing yards. Two years ago, top five and passing yards per game. The
18:06reason people think of Tua as just not as good. It well because he's not that good. We know it was the system, but
18:13again, that should tell us something about Justin Herbert here. But the real reason people aren't as excited is because of the huge drop off last
18:19season, the huge drop off um with like the concussions and stuff from Tua, but also the fact that even though Tua was
18:26like leading the league in passing, top five and passing next season, he didn't run it. And because that occurred, he wasn't that high of a fantasy producer.
18:35And because that happened, we see Mike McDaniel go to the Chargers here and we're like not as excited. I am. But
18:42people are not as excited as they should be because they're like, "Well, well, Tua wasn't that great of a quarterback."
18:48He took Tua and made him top seven in adjusted net yards per pass attempt and backto-back years, top five in total
18:54passing yards. If Justin Herbert is going to be top five in passing yards while also leading the league in scramble yards, he's someone that can
19:02run for touchdowns, throw for 40. I mean, like, he could lead the league in total touchdowns and passing yards and be the number one quarterback. That is
19:09absolutely in his range of outcomes. And to get him in the seventh round after people have all taken a ton of
19:15quarterbacks, it's just such amazing value. So, you want to be all in. I want this season Herbert and Lawrence to be
19:23my two most rostered quarterbacks because strategy-wise, they're an amazing part of the draft, but they have the upside to push even these hyper
19:30mobile quarterbacks. And that's something that can give you huge value.
19:34If everyone else is taking them in rounds four, five, six, you can wait until seven or eight to take yours and
19:38they compete with or pass those guys in production. The wide receivers and running backs that were available to you in rounds three or rounds not three,
19:46rounds four, five, I guess three for Josh Allen, but Josh Allen's still an okay pick in round three, but rounds four, five, and six, they have so much
19:52more upside than the rounds seven and eight running backs and receivers. So, the value there is awesome. But as for Lawrence, um, again, early eighth round
20:01pick, great value. I have him around ahead of ADP. If you don't have quarterback by this spot, please take Trevor Lawrence this season. He was
20:09definitely a little bit lucky last season. Nine rushing touchdowns. That's not going to repeat. But he has mobility. He will score rushing
20:18touchdowns. Okay. Also, they've got four great receivers, as I talked about before. That reduces injury risk. There are some quarterbacks who really only
20:25have two good receivers, one injury, and all of a sudden, um, you know, you've got much lower end production. It doesn't even matter who gets hurt. Like
20:33truly like it doesn't matter which wide receiver gets hurt. You can just bring the other one in. You can run more. Two
20:38wide receiver sets. Even in three wide receiver sets, you've got four great wide receivers right now. If one gets injured, you just play the other three
20:45at elevated snap shares. So there's way less risk of someone getting injured in this offense and that impacting Trevor Lawrence. And just think about how good
20:53he was when Jacobe Myers was traded for last season. He was the number one overall quarterback in fantasy from week nine on last season. And that was
21:02without Travis Hunter at all. And say what you want about Travis Hunter, he is going to come in on offense, be highly
21:08efficient. He's going to have schemed usage. He's going to be one of their better wide receivers on like a per route basis. He's probably, given the
21:16reports that we've seen, only going to play like half the snaps on offense. But if you mix him in, you keep the other
21:22wide receivers healthier, you keep them fresher, and you're designing specific plays for the specific talent of Travis Hunter. The efficiency of this offense
21:30coming off the chart. And again, number one quarterback in all of fantasy after they trade for Jacqui Myers, you add in
21:37Travis Hunter to that, you can't tell me he doesn't have a lot of upside. So, like I said, Herbert Lawrence around
21:41seven, eight, I want to be targeting them in that range. It's a great spot strategy-wise. I want them to be my most
21:47drafted uh quarterbacks this season.
21:49Round nine, Josh DS. And honestly, his ADP needs to go up. Like, and I I need to draft him more. I've drafted him a
21:55ton. I'm easily 2x the field right now.
21:58I need to draft him more often. I've moved him up over Alec Pierce. I think that gap needs to start growing. The
22:04reports are not good. They're really, really bad on Alec Pierce. He has not practiced since March. I feel like we're just like, they were kind of assuming
22:10like, oh yeah, he had the surgery. um everything's gonna be fine because that's what the team has kind of been telling us. But it does seem like
22:17they've been lying through their teeth.
22:19Um they are incentivized to do that because it kind of gets people to stop talking about. Yeah. Yeah. He's fine.
22:25He'll come back soon. If it's all if they're like, "Oh yeah, he's like slow recovery. It's not going good." Like it's it's much more of a story here. So,
22:32um you get why they would lie about it.
22:34But it continues to be, "Oh, a couple weeks. Oh, a couple weeks. Oh, a couple weeks. Okay, we're a couple weeks from
22:39week one. Maybe we're like a month from week one, but like you know we're not that many weeks from week one and he has
22:43not practiced in any capacity since March. That is not good. He's got another injection in the foot. Clearly the recovery is not going that well. And
22:54already like we were like, okay, it's not like he's he's got a ton of receptions in his career at most. Alec
23:01Pierce 47 receptions. So I get he gets the big contract. We've talked about a lot this off seasonason how you can't
23:07just look at the contract for a wide receiver like him because he does way more for your NFL team than he does in
23:14fantasy. It's a difficult role playing that outside ex-wide receiver running the tough routes, getting deep downfield and being highly efficient downfield.
23:24There's many wide receivers who can get downfield. Marquez Valdez Scanley can get downfield. Taekquin Thornton can get downfield. But can you actually win at
23:32the X and can you actually come down with those receptions downfield? Those two cannot. Alex Pierce has shown for back-to-back seasons that he can. And
23:39that's so valuable to an NFL team. But for fantasy, it's not a role that leads to a ton of receptions. And so when you
23:46have, you know, maybe he expands, maybe he gets more intermediate routes, but he kind of needed camp to help him do that
23:52and kind of ramp up. So you lose Pitman's 111 targets. You don't replace it with anything to thus point. And now
23:59I mean is is Alec Pierce even going to be playing in week one? Is he going to open on like the pup or something? These
24:05are things that we didn't think could occur and now they might. And so you basically have Josh Downs and a bunch of
24:09scrubs at wide receiver. Even if they do a trade or a signing, I guess they could trade for someone too, but even if they
24:15do a signing, like Diggs is gone. Debo's gone. So now you're basically sitting there with Keenan Allen. We know that Keenan Allen is slated for basically
24:22only a third down role. He's going to mix in on obvious passing situations, third down, things like that where it's like he's not going to have even close
24:30to full snap share. Only going to play 11 personnel. So Josh Downs is going to have a huge target share this season.
24:36Tons of receptions coming his way. He's an amazing pick in this range. And you add on the fact that Daniel Jones looks
24:43good. And they're like, "Wow, we don't we're not sure how, but he's recovered way faster than expected. He looks like he's going to be close to 100% to start
24:50the season." Remember, this was the number one team in the NFL before he got injured. So, it is a great offense. It
24:56is a quarterback that maybe overperformed last season, but clearly performed well in this system. And we might have the number one target on this
25:03team in round nine. I mean, Josh Downs is such a good pick. I'm a little bit frustrated. I I didn't draft him as
25:09often. Again, I'm like at least 2x the field right now, so I have plenty of him. We've taken him in these mock
25:14drafts. You know, we've been on him, but he should be a mustdraft player at this point. I'm probably going to add him to
25:19that article. Uh, round 10, Jaden Reed.
25:23Uh, I don't know why I said it so weird.
25:24Jaden Reed, uh, early 10th round pick by ADP. I have him as a late eighth round pick. Um, you know, he benefits from at
25:31least the reporting right now is that they're going to be more pass heavy, more 11 personnel. That helps him. Uh, also helps him that, you know, they're
25:38just not going to be able to rotate wide receiver as much because they lose Romeo Dobs, they lose on Wix, they don't
25:43really replace with anyone. Maybe Savian Williams steps up, but I just don't I think he's more of that scheme usage type player. I don't think he can like
25:49command targets. Um so you have that positive and for a player like um Christian Watson, right? Well, he was already on a pretty elevated snap
26:00share. He was always going to be out there on um even when they do to you know two wide receiver sets, things like
26:05that. So going to more 11 um if anything can hurt him on a per route basis and passing more and stuff like that like
26:12there's less of an impact if you were already a full-time player. But for Jaden Reed, the problem has always been, well, they don't play 11 as much. And
26:20even when they do, they rotate these guys so much. They have a five wide receiver rotation. Well, if it's only a
26:25three wide receiver rotation and they're in 11 more, his routes can go way up.
26:30And he's always been a good player in yards per route run production when he's out there, the question has been, will
26:35he be out there? And if the answer to that every other season has been like no, not enough to matter, but now it's
26:41yes and the ADP is not really rising, we can capitalize on that. So if it continues to be positive there, that's
26:49great. Um has been positive all off season. And let's be honest, can Christian Watson stay healthy? I think he's primed for a great season. I think
26:56he is a great wide receiver. He's proven in what, four straight years that he cannot stay healthy. If he gets injured
27:02again, that just skyrockets the value of Jane Reed. Uh round 11, Stfan Diggs. I do think his AD will go up, but if he
27:10continues going around 11, he is the best pick in that range. The loss of Tonsel hurts. Uh but it hurts the
27:16running backs more than it does Stfane Diggs and especially like maybe hurts um McLuren a bit as well because a lot of
27:22his production can come downfield. Worse offensive line, that means the pressure is going to come a little quicker, means more dump offs. Well, that might benefit
27:29Stfan Digs because he's not going to be running deep downfield. Um, he's going to be used in more that shallow area of
27:34the field. So, it's really just not an injury that impacts him too much. Uh, it's not like he was getting all his
27:38value from like touchdowns as well. So, even if they score less, again, it's not going to matter for Stefon Diggs. People
27:44can say that maybe he's kind of cooked and like, yeah, obviously he's not, you know, the digs we were drafting in like
27:49round three, but he had an elite first downs per run last season, uh, really strong yards per run. Like, underlying metrics were great. He just didn't like
27:58run a ton of routes. There were a lot of games where they just didn't have him out there when they did let him run a
28:02lot of routes. He performed really well and he's a great compliment to McLaren.
28:06You know, he's he's going to run his routes in a different area of the field.
28:09Um he's clearly the number two there. I mean, they do not have like they're talking about Luke McAffrey as their number three because Antonio Williams
28:14isn't kind of quite there yet. Like this is not a situation where the three, four, five receivers are any good. Um I
28:21think Diggs has one year left. He was 16th in adjusted points per game last season. like maybe we don't fully remember it, but he had a pretty good
28:28year. He just wasn't on a full snapshare. Um he's been taken well outside the top 40 wide receivers.
28:32There's a clear path to upside. Will he be top 10? Absolutely not. Um but if you got the wide receiver 20 and you took
28:39him as like the wide receiver 45, that's going to be a good value. If he can perform as like a lowend two kind of
28:45flex play for you in round 11, you will take that every single time. So a great pick in this range. Uh round 12, Katon
28:52Mitchell. I've talked about how this is my second most confident take on the season. Draft David Montgomery. That's the most confident. Draft Keaton
28:59Mitchell. It's just like there's too much upside for round 12 running back.
29:03It happens as a mid ninth rounder. I will continue being multiple rounds ahead of ADP no matter what is ADP is.
29:09Um not a lot to go off. No one is in round 12 on. Uh but the ceiling is incredible. We know the Chargers are
29:16going to be better than the public is expecting right now. He's getting downfield targets in camp. You don't see that at running back and when you do,
29:23you draft them. Like truly, running backs get dump offs, running backs get screen passes behind yard of scrimmage, line of scrimmage. Like you look at the
29:30end of the season in the air yards for a lot of running backs who even had decent production in the receiving game is like
29:34negative 50. Like they don't get targets downfield, but those are the absolute best routes. You see a downfield wheel route for a running back and you know,
29:45get them onto your roster because those are very valuable in fantasy. We're seeing it multiple times from this offense. Um, we're seeing quotes that
29:53like, you know, this is why we had Amarin Hampton last in that second round running back rankings video behind Saquon, Ken Walker, and Chase Brown
30:00because they're going to use these other backs. And while I definitely think Mike McDaniel's blowing smoke here being like, oh, we're going to, you know, hot
30:07hand with all three. Okay, first of all, who do you think the hot hand's going to be? It is going to be a Mario Hampton
30:11more often than not. He is a better running back than Katon and Vidal. But the point I think we draw from these
30:17quotes and we draw from these practices is it is not just going to be a Marin Hampton out there 90% of snaps. And
30:23Marin Hampton's a lead back and he's a good player and he's going to have a lot of value this season. But there's a role
30:27for a player that Mike McDaniel specifically wanted on this team. The single most explosive running back in the NFL last season in terms of, you
30:34know, how many plays he can have over 20 miles per hour. Like this kid gets going elite speed. Uh he's going to be
30:43utilized by this coaching staff. This offense is great. Offensive line is great. He's going to bust off long touchdowns this year. He's going to have
30:48work in the receiving game. He's just going to be a player you want in round 12. Round 13. Chicka Kongquo uh taking
30:55the mid-13th threat now and have him as a mid 11th rounder. Another player on the Commanders. Just not worried about um tonsil injury when it comes to
31:03players who are going to have that shallower AOT. Um, Chick is pretty locked in as that third pass catcher, third most targeted player on offense.
31:11Is there a world where he gets more targets than Fund Digs? Absolutely. He's great after the catch, great athlete, great quarterback play, like, you know,
31:20definitely um some upside here. Is he going to be a top five tight end?
31:25probably not, but I think he's kind of, you know, if you're searching for tight end in this range and you're like, you
31:30you missed out on the top end, you didn't want to take the mid-range of tight end, you you wanted to really
31:34double dip at the position. He's someone that they specifically went after in free agency. Again, very good quarterback play. They are not going to
31:42throw to the running backs all that much this season. Um, they mentioned wanting to have him on deep routes this season.
31:48We love seeing that. They're practicing that in camp, like getting him running deep downfield. Well, obviously those are very high upside routes for tight
31:55ends. So, when you mix in the fact that we know that they're going to give him screen passes, right? They're going to
31:59give him screen passes, shallow stuff.
32:00So, he has that baseline. If he's also mixing out, you know, mixing in corner routes, post routes, things like that, that's going to add upside to his his
32:08uh, you know, outcome in fantasy. So, love taking him on teams that forgo the tight end position early on, pass it in
32:14the middle rounds, want to double dip late. He should be one of those options you heavily consider. him and like Isaiah Likely should be two you really
32:20consider uh double dipping late on. Uh round 14, I'm just going to throw both Stribbling and Trey Harris in there.
32:26It's a very similar bet on both of them.
32:28Both very high upside, of course, lowish floors, but high upside uh wide receivers in this range. When you're searching for a league winner, you're
32:36searching for a breakout, elite offense, elite play caller, high-end quarterback.
32:40If you can hit on those three things and then you can hit on the opportunity increasing more than expected for a
32:45high-end snapshare, that's a player that um we want to target in fantasy. And the kicker with both of them is also they're
32:53on teams that very much value running the ball. Teams that want and need their wide receivers to be great run blockers.
33:01Now, it is consensus that Stribbling was the best run blocking wide receiver in this draft class. You've got all these, you know, injuries on San Fran that
33:10always happens. Um, you've got Piell done for the season. Evans is out right now with a quad injury. Stribbling's having a great camp. You've still got KD
33:17returning from injury. Like, there's a path here where Stribbling is like out there for a ton of snaps. Very, very high-end upside. But the same thing for
33:25Trey Harris. I mean, Mike McDaniel really likes Trey Harris. We know he was great at run blocking. He he was out
33:31there as a rookie in 13 personnel.
33:33That's one wide receiver on the field.
33:34That could happen again this season. He could elevate into 12 personnel. He could overtake Quinton Johnson if Quinton Johnson continues to not be able
33:40to catch the football. Like I don't know, there's upside for both these guys. I love taking both of them late.
33:45Uh other option round 15 is Ryan Fenoi.
33:48Uh if you're looking for wide receiver in this range, mid 15th round pick I have as a mid-13th round pick. Dallas,
33:54we've been talking about teams going with 12 personnel, 13 personnel, a bunch more two tight end sets, not going to happen in Dallas. Dallas wants three
34:01wide receivers on the field. Teams are going to be terrified. CD terrified of George Pickkins. They're not going to be able to focus on uh Ryan Fenoy. He's
34:10going to get single coverage. He's gonna get slot corners. He's going to get linebackers at times. That's going to make him a very high upside pick. And
34:16that's without even an injury. You get an injury to CD Lamb. You get an injury to George Pickins, all of a sudden the
34:24upside's insane. You're probably starting him every week as a wide receiver, too. So, you've got two potential kind of like he's quote
34:30unquote wide receiver handcuff to two different players. But I think the baseline production is going to still outperform this ADP and he could still
34:37be someone even if both of them are healthy that in shootouts in in these dome games they have like you could
34:43probably mix him into the flex spot and he won't be that bad for you and that should not be the case for a 15th round
34:47pick at wide receiver. And then finally round 16 Terren Ferguson coming off the board in the early 16th round. I have in
34:54the mid13th round legit chance that Terrence Terren Ferguson is the third most targeted player on this team. They do not throw to running backs. They do
35:02not have a third wide receiver that's going to be targeted a lot on this team.
35:06Um, they were in love with him. I mean, it's why we talked about him pretty heavily in kind of like dynasty stuff
35:12last year, just like answering dynasty questions, being like, "Listen, when a team is this in love with a prospect and they have this good of a system on
35:21offense, you maybe want to be focusing on them in dynasty, even if we know it's going to be a slow burn." And it was a
35:26slow burn. I mean, like, they used him deep downfield last season, but you could never even touch him in fantasy.
35:31But they've been consistent all off seasonason that like he showed them a lot last year. He's improved as a player. He can be that number three
35:38option. If he really turns into that option, what if Puka gets hurt? What if Adams gets hurt? These are not exactly
35:44the two like healthiest wide receivers in the NFL all of a sudden. I mean, if Terrence Ferguson is the second most
35:50targeted player on this team and Stafford's putting together another MVP season, yeah, I'll take that as my round 16 tight end. uh and especially on on
35:59you know tight end premium leagues definitely be targeting him. Uh but yeah, great pick later on if you're double dipping. You don't wait this late
36:06and take only Terrence Ferguson. So those are who I think the best picks are in every round. Let me know who you
36:11agree with and disagree with the most in the comment section down below. And if you want to draft with my custom dynamic
36:17rankings, you can see that at my website the fantasyfootadvice.com.
36:21The website got a massive upgrade this off seasonason, so you're definitely going to want to check that out before drafting. All right, please leave a like
36:28if you are still here. Please subscribe on Spotify or YouTube if you're new here. But I'll be back on Friday.

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