These Two Late Round QBs Might Win You Everything
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
23 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 1, 2026
Published
Wed, July 1, 2026
6
Player insights
6
Players mentioned
Topics
Jayden DanielsJoe BurrowJosh AllenKyler MurrayLamar JacksonMalik Willis
Player analysis
Player insights
Jayden Daniels
PositiveValue22:03
JJ Zachariason targets Jaden Daniels in the mid-round five to mid-round six window as part of his preferred QB tier alongside Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
PositiveValue22:03
JJ Zachariason targets Joe Burrow in the mid-round five to mid-round six window as part of his preferred QB tier alongside Lamar Jackson and Jaden Daniels.
Insight pageJosh Allen
PositiveValue21:54
JJ Zachariason is drafting Josh Allen in the third round as part of his QB strategy in a different quarterback pool environment than the prior year.
Insight pageKyler Murray
NegativeValue22:27
JJ Zachariason uses Kyler Murray as a historical example of late-round QB success and contrasts his elite supporting cast (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Juwan Jennings) against Malik Willis's inferior receiver group (Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, Chris Bell, Caleb Douglas, Malik Washington, Kevin Coleman Jr.), noting Murray gets drafted a few rounds later due to this cast advantage.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveValue22:03
JJ Zachariason targets Lamar Jackson in the mid-round five to mid-round six window as part of his preferred QB tier alongside Joe Burrow and Jaden Daniels.
Insight pageMalik Willis
NegativeSleeper19:49
JJ Zachariason identifies Malik Willis as a primary late-round QB sleeper with high odds of finishing the season as QB1. Willis's offensive scheme emphasizes mobility—"attack every single blade of grass"—which contrasts favorably against Quinn Ewers's point-and-shoot approach. Zachariason notes rushing injury risk but expects high-end fantasy moments and compares Willis to the 2017–2018 late-round rushing QB archetype (Colin Kaepernick era) that fantasy has since priced out. Willis's receiver group (Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, Chris Bell, Caleb Douglas, Malik Washington, Kevin Coleman Jr.) is inferior to elite supporting casts like Kyler Murray's (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Juwan Jennings), which is why Murray gets drafted a few rounds later. Zachariason recommends Willis as a bench stash even in 10–12 team leagues given small-sample upside.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:46From athletic to athletic-ish, Sierra's got it. Typically, for these sleeper shows, we give you a list of four to six names at each position.
0:54That's going to be different here for this episode, for these quarterbacks.
0:57Yes, we've talked about it at length that this year the elite quarterbacks are underpriced, namely because they all got injured last
1:04year and get them at a better value this year.
1:07But when diving down deep through the ADP list, through the draft list this year, Hayden, you and I believe that there's
1:13really only two names people really need to have at the top of their mind heading into their fancy drafts this year,
1:20and how that these late-round quarterback targets could be the skeleton key to winning your fancy league.
1:25So, before we dive into those names, let's also talk about the rubric here.
1:29What makes a late-round quarterback star? I think there's like three different buckets.
1:33There's the pocket passer that all of a sudden plays like an MVP level.
1:37Last year, Matthew Stafford went 165th overall, an underdog, and he was the quarterback that had the second-most points for their fantasy teams out there.
1:44And then the other buckets are, I think, a veteran-changing team, new offensive coordinator, new play caller.
1:49Daniel Jones from last year was an example of that.
1:52And then the third one is just a new starter that runs like crazy.
1:57And I think the second and the third bucket are going to be our answers for this.
2:02And that was Jackson Dart maybe from last year, and there's been better examples in previous seasons.
2:07So, it's like one of those three clear buckets to me is how you can find a quarterback two or quarterback three
2:13in ADP finishing as a top-12 guy. So, I'll scale it down even more, simplify it even more.
2:18To me, the two buckets are you need to be in a top-eight scoring offense and or a mobile quarterback with rushing
2:25production, and that equals your floor of points on a weekly basis.
2:28And you brought up the three names that I was going to bring up to, the three late-round steals from last year,
2:35and you can kind of, again, pick that apart from 2024, 2023, and so on.
2:39The first one is Drake May. He was obviously quarterback three in points per game last year.
2:44The Patriots scored the eighth most points just as a team, and Drake May himself, the fourth most rushing yards among all quarterbacks in the league last season.
2:53Then you brought him up, Daniel Jones. Before he got hurt, I believe, Hayden, the Colts were the number one scoring team
2:59in the NFL at 29.8 points per game. That was prior to his week 14 injury.
3:04And then there's Jackson Dart, as you pointed out.
3:07Yes, he finishes the top 13 quarterback in nine of 12 games as a starter.
3:11The team did score the 16th most points, so that doesn't fit into what we're talking about.
3:16But 42.5% of his fantasy points from this past season were rushing.
3:20So all three of those names fit in either of the buckets that I brought up, and I think both the names
3:26we brought up today have a chance of fitting in at least one too.
3:30Yeah, completely agree. And this is not just from last year.
3:34This is like the same type of buckets for years.
3:37The other kind of new note for fantasy quarterbacks this year, at least on best ball, is the quarterback 2-3.
3:42Think about quarterback 13 to quarterback 30. They're all being drafted two-ish, three-ish rounds earlier than where they typically have been, which
3:49just makes it harder to find sleepers. And I think some of the strategies that have been working, which recently has been
3:55like three quarterbacks no matter what, but I do think that this year, because the pricing has changed, we should think through that a little bit differently.
4:03But that's deep best ball weeds. I'm trying to think about Yahoo drafts in this episode.
4:08And here's, I think, two guys that I think are going to be definitely drafted after quarterback 12 that have a chance
4:15of being a top 12 quarterback in fantasy this year.
4:18Okay, let's dive into those names. The first one for us is Kyler Murray, now of the Minnesota Vikings.
4:23He's quarterback 17 on Underdog. We're also going to bring up your home leagues over on Yahoo.
4:28He's quarterback 16 there, the ninth or 10th round, depending on the platform.
4:32For me, Hayden, this one's pretty simple. Like you are getting a discount on Kevin O'Connell's offense because they finished 26th in scoring last year.
4:40All that you have to do is rewind to 2024.
4:42They finished ninth in scoring. In 2022, they finished eighth in scoring.
4:46So while I have my questions about Kyler Murray as like reaching this number one overall pick and being a top 12
4:53starter across the league on any given season, I have more questions about maybe his ability than others.
4:58Just the environment that we're here in mixing with his skill sets is like a recipe for us to nail down as
5:04the quarterback 17 or 16 year drafts, a league long starter for you in your lineups this season.
5:10I have Kyler Murray ranked as a quarterback 10.
5:12He's being drafted as a quarterback 17. So like I'm like drafting him as if like this upside case is coming to
5:19fruition just because it seems so obvious. So from 2022 to 2024, that's when KOC and Justin Jefferson were there without J.J.
5:25McCarthy slash Carson Wentz. Kirk Cousins averaged over 20 fantasy points per game.
5:29That's equivalent to the quarterback seven in this last year.
5:32Nick Mullins and Sam Darnold averaged 19.8 fantasy points.
5:35That would have been the quarterback eight. Josh Dobbs, remember coming off the airplane.
5:39He started for a couple of games. Not very good at quarterback.
5:43He still averaged 17.5 fantasy points per game, which was the equivalent of the quarterback 17, which is what Kyler Murray is being priced at right now.
5:51Keep in mind, all of those guys, except for Josh Dobbs, did that without running.
5:55Kyler Murray has averaged 37 rushing yards per game over his career.
5:59And there's been a couple of seasons where he's even been better than that.
6:03He should be way, way, way healthy versus that ACL tear from multiple seasons ago.
6:07So if we get like 30 rushing yards per game on top of all the passing production and the weapons are still
6:14really good, the offensive line is better now than it was a couple of seasons when Kirk Cousins was balling out.
6:20And then I do think just like the verticalness does help with Kyler Murray, who has statistically not been a good downfield quarterback.
6:27But I do think if you watch him, the ball does explode on his hand and he does want to throw the ball down the field.
6:34He just has not been very successful. Well, on 20 plus yard passes, the Vikings were first in success rate from 2022 to 2024.
6:41That helps when you have Justin Jefferson's like to me, this is like so obvious that I didn't.
6:47So I really do not understand why he's being priced all the way down at quarterback 17.
6:52I kind of do. I mean, just watching his 2025 versus 2024 stuff, some of his worst ball of his career was this past season.
6:59And obviously that was what from week one through week five.
7:02And that's all we got. So I understand it for the market standpoint.
7:06And as you pointed out to open the show, let's say the high end mid quarterbacks are being drafted earlier than ever.
7:13So that's going to lead us to liking a lot of those names because the quarterback position is in a very good
7:19place, I think, in the league right now. So someone like Kyler Murray is kind of, I think, falling through the cracks a little bit.
7:27One note as well. We had Ryan Heath on the program around last year in July.
7:31And a lot of what he said on the McShanahan tree really does continue to show up year after year.
7:37I mean, it's why we told you to draft Brock Purdy.
7:41And in the games he played, he did score a whole bunch of fancy points.
7:45All of those in Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan are one of their disciples as the play caller.
7:50They just have this offensive system that boosts fancy production from their quarterbacks to a much, much greater extent than many of
7:57the other systems that is trying to chase this group.
7:59Question for you. Where does Kyler Murray need to improve to not slip through the cracks and become not just a fancy
8:06scorer, but what we all hope he can be as like a real life quarterback to?
8:11I mean, it's like crossing routes, you know, just throwing the ball over the middle, saying within, you know, within the structure for a half second longer.
8:19He has not been very good at that, obviously playing with his height.
8:23Like there's like very real limitations. I also want to note that the Cardinals are like one of the biggest joke organizations in all the American sports.
8:31And if you look at the NFL PA surveys, the Vikings are like number one in the league.
8:36So like going from like a terrible environment to like where everything around you just seems functional.
8:41That's not lost on me as well. And then like you said, with the Shanahan stuff, a lot of it's just like play action.
8:48And from 2022 to 2024, before the offense went off a cliff last year because the quarterback play, the Vikings were second in play action rate.
8:56Since 2022, Kyler Murray has a 51% success rate on play action versus a 43% success rate without the play action.
9:02So you're going to get the downfield passing numbers rebounding for Kyler Murray, I would guess, at an all time level.
9:08And then just like more play actions can be good for Kyler Murray, where he doesn't have to, you know, scan through the ball immediately over the middle.
9:16Like he's the play action steps way down the field.
9:19You're not really throwing the ball over in the middle that much off of it anyway.
9:24So yeah, I just like it's Justin Jefferson, Jordan, Allison, TG Hawkinson, everything's clicking here.
9:29And I think there are some warts with Kyler Murray, but at the same time, he has finished as a top five,
9:35top 10, like real life quarterback in seasons. Like it's kind of ups and downs, Russell Wilson-esque, but he has flashed like top 10 ability in the past.
9:43Just takes a specific type of offense. And I just think that they have it this year.
9:48Yeah, I think that rollercoaster nature ups and downs you talked about comes down to his comfort in it, like his comfort and trust in the environment.
9:56We know he has a history of Cliff Kingsbury, and we have seen Cliff's offenses go up and down at the exact same time.
10:03And when Kyler was comfortable with his play caller and with the people around him, then you did see those really high moments.
10:10And obviously last season, it was obvious from the jump that Kyler and Drew Petsing and Jonathan Gannon just simply were not
10:17on the same page with how this thing was going to work out.
10:21Some more detailed notes on that, though. Like he still needs to stand tall versus pressure.
10:25And I know get your short jokes in here, but like you have to do that in this Kevin O'Connell offense, because
10:32when you allow a play to unfold and stand in versus the fire and don't abandon the play in those moments, there
10:38are windows and throws to be made that turn into explosives.
10:42That turn into 17 yard digs or, you know, 20 plus yard hole shots and all these things.
10:47And someone like Nick Mullins, who you brought up, was doing that.
10:50And we need to see Kyler get back to that like he did in 2024 versus, you know, kind of what he showed in 2025.
10:58And the other thing to me is he needs to be aggressive in the red zone, especially to your tight end.
11:04Like we know we were going through it in stats versus film every single week.
11:09Trey McBride was open way more in that tight field than he got the football when playing with Kyler Murray.
11:14And then what we saw with Jacoby Brissett. So I'm excited for this.
11:18I mean, Kyler Murray is much better than the contract that he is on.
11:22We know why he's on that contract because he's still getting paid by the Arizona Cardinals.
11:27But while we haven't seen exactly a one to one fit like this in the Kevin O'Connell offense to succeed, to me,
11:34that just makes it even more exciting because he hasn't had a lot of these same levers to pull with these other
11:40quarterbacks that he's made into, again, top 10 scoring offenses.
11:43Schedule wise, second easiest. And then he starts the season with the Packers without Micah Parsons.
11:48And that's a high scoring Packers offense. And then the Chicago Bears, high scoring Bears offense with a lackluster defense.
11:54So I think for redraft leagues, like you can start them if you're punting quarterback is your quarterback one and you just
12:00load it up and your flex is awesome. You got elite tight ends, the whole thing.
12:05I do think in like a 12 team league, you can start Kyler Murray as your quarterback one in week one.
12:11And then in best ball, I think he's like the ideal quarterback to whether you have Josh Allen and Kyler and then you're done.
12:18Or if you go like the Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray pick, you know, a really deep sleeper quarterback three.
12:24I think either way, he's like the ideal quarterback to invest ball.
12:27But I do think in deeper redraft leagues, you can just start them right in week one.
12:33Yeah. I mean, this is the perfect redraft quarterback over on Yahoo in that you get that early season schedule that you
12:39talked about and you can see what happens. If it's working, if it's not, if it does, like we saw with Daniel
12:46Jones and Drake May last season, then continue to ride that out.
12:49And in fact, if you wanted to do this later on your draft, closing it with Kyler Murray and this next thing
12:56we're going to talk about, I think is an interesting proposition too.
12:59Although, you know, let's bring him up. Malik Willis is almost certainly not going to be drafted in your home leagues right now.
13:06But Hayden, quarterback 21 over an underdog, quarterback 19 on Yahoo at this point.
13:10Anytime we mention his name, we get vitriol in the comments.
13:13But I just want those people to let us make the case here.
13:17Give your case for Malik Willis and why he could be a skeleton key for fantasy football this season.
13:23Well, small sample size king over 159 plays over the last three seasons.
13:27Malik Willis is the quarterback one in EPA per play, quarterback one in completion percentage, overexpected, quarterback 11 success rate.
13:33That's out of 79 qualifiers. Those are passing numbers.
13:35We're here for the rushing stats, and I got plenty of those.
13:39But as a passer, he is way better in a small sample than your Justin Fields types who have held the line in fantasy for us before.
13:47I'm not going to make the case that the passing production is going to be there.
13:52You and I might be starting in three wide receiver sets for the Miami Dolphins.
13:56It's not going to be pretty there. But the rushing numbers are so obvious.
14:00If you guys watch him at any point, whether at Liberty or in the pros here, he's very fast, but he's also very physical.
14:07He's top three in yards after the contact as well.
14:10But his just numbers in terms of the scramble rate are off the charts.
14:14As a Packer, his scramble rate is 15%. The league average is 5%.
14:18That was the highest in the NFL over the last four years.
14:22He's number one in scramble rate among qualifiers. Malik Willis averages nine yards per scramble, which is only trailing Justin Herbert.
14:28Over the last couple seasons, the NFL average is at 7.7 yards.
14:31So when he does scramble, he's really good at it.
14:34Then the quarterback design game, only Lamar Jackson has averaged more yards per carry than Malik Willis.
14:39He's third, like I said, in yards after contact per carry.
14:43I've seen him do quarterback sneaks before as well.
14:45And keep in mind, when they get to the goal line, the starting running back on the Miami Dolphins is 5'9", 191.
14:52I really like Devon A. He's very good. But at the goal line, have we seen him get smoked?
14:57I've seen him get smoked. And by the way, the Dolphins pass catchers are horrific.
15:02But the center is awesome. The left tackle is emerging.
15:05And he's a total athletic freak. Patrick Paul, please go watch some highlights of him.
15:09And then Caden Proctor, they drafted him to run behind him.
15:13So we're here for the rushing stuff. If he's actually a good passer, that's how you can turn him into a legit top 10 guy.
15:20I think we're here for the floor. But I do think the floor is higher than this ADP.
15:25So often, we connect. And by we, I mean the ceiling and rushing production.
15:29When in reality, rushing and mobility is the floor for these quarterbacks.
15:33And then the passing production, the passing evolution becomes a ceiling.
15:36And that's exactly the case here for Malik Willis.
15:39And I want to talk about that passing stuff.
15:42Because you outlined the floor extremely well with the rushing.
15:45When you go back, and again, it's a small sample.
15:47And namely against that Baltimore Ravens game. He had, what, 50 dropbacks this past season?
15:52There was a real rhythm to his game as a passer.
15:55I mean, he ripped up Baltimore. And again, you can get your jokes.
15:59And I know a lot of teams did last year until they switched some things around.
16:04Basically, every single coverage that he faced, he knew what the answer was at the end of his drop.
16:09And made the correct decision. And made some big-time throws in those situations.
16:13Like, okay, is it single high? Back foot, beautiful touch throw to the left sideline.
16:18Complete on the red line. Cover two. Seems shot to Christian Watson in the window overhead of Kyle Hamilton.
16:23Then there was a second and seven blitz. Okay, he trusts the running back in Josh Jacobs to pick that up versus Kyle Hamilton.
16:30Just a slight movement to his right. Reset in the pocket.
16:34Hit Romeo Dobbs over the middle field in zone for a yak first down.
16:38And then a three-level concept. He's forced out of the pocket again to the right because of a blitz off his left side.
16:45Two defenders then drive on the underneath route. And so he hits Jane Reed in the middle three on third and forever for a first down.
16:52Did watch him at Liberty. It felt like everything was along the sidelines and he still did make those vertical passes in that area.
16:59I have absolutely loved the progression. Again, albeit in a small sample of now what we're seeing of like full field reading
17:06and like legit defensive coverage and especially targeting the middle of the field with Malik Willis.
17:11And I think that's exactly what Bobby Sloak is going to strengthen and heighten and focus on is this, you know, extra protection play action.
17:18And then these crossing routes over the middle of the field.
17:21And I think we're gonna have some success and some ceiling outcomes here from Malik Willis in some games with this passing dynamic too.
17:28I will say that the coaching staff does make me nervous.
17:32I really like LaFleur and I'm really not sure what we're signing up for with the Dolphins.
17:37In fact, like you can make the case that like heading into the season, the coaching staff that you probably trust the
17:43least could be the Miami Dolphins here. And like, obviously the pass catchers are even worse than that.
17:48But this Bobby Sloak load up the protection, throw the ball down the field.
17:53I do think that's what they're gonna do. And then you're gonna have a lot of zone read stuff.
17:58I think the quarterback sneaks and quarterback power and all that type of stuff.
18:02You're gonna, you're gonna see elements of all that here.
18:05And that's, that's gonna be exciting. Then hopefully Chris Bell hits the ground running about Halloween.
18:10And we can take some of these crossing routes all the way to the house.
18:14So yeah, I think this is probably stretching it and like your typical 12 team league as him being your quarterback one.
18:21I think we're going to talk about him a lot on the waiver wire in terms of quarterback streaming.
18:27I think in best ball, he's a really interesting pick.
18:30I guess let's hit on the downside case. What do you say the odds are that he like gets benched the season?
18:36And I guess the follow-up to that would be, does it really matter?
18:40At least in a redraft, like you just drop him and pick somebody else up.
18:44But what do you think like the realistic odds of him actually finishing the season as the quarterback one are?
18:50Fair question. He does have $13 million guaranteed also in 2027 season.
18:54So it's not just a one-year contract and that's it.
18:57Now, $13 million, if they're in the top five, top 10 picks next year, obviously that can be backup money and that's it.
19:04But I would have been more nervous if he was going to a team or signed with like, I don't know, the
19:10Arizona Cardinals, which other than, you know, the LaFleur brothers, there's not much of a connection there.
19:15Obviously with Miami, GM, Green Bay, head coach, Green Bay.
19:18And this was their target all along for the quarterback spot.
19:21So it can go sour. It can go south.
19:24Like it happens a lot. It happened with Kyler Murray, who we talked about.
19:28It happens with quarterbacks every single year. But I think the leash is pretty dang long here when you consider like the
19:35next quarterback here is Quinn Ewers, which by the way, the offenses I think are going to be styled very differently with
19:41Quinn Ewers out there, which is like a point and shoot passer versus Malik Willis that you can attack like every single blade of grass with.
19:49Yeah, I think that's well put. I think that his odds of finishing the season, the quarterback one are pretty high.
19:55It's not 100% obviously, but it's pretty, pretty high.
19:58Just looking at the contract, Quinn Ewers is totally different than Malik Willis.
20:02So I think they're going to try to make Malik Willis really happen.
20:05Obviously, there's some rushing injury risk here, but I think there will be moments that we will like the Malik Willis stuff.
20:12I think that he's going to have some like really high end fantasy.
20:16This is an old school Konami code late round Russian quarterback that fantasy has caught on to over the years.
20:22So you don't really get them in late rounds as recently.
20:25But this feels like we're back in, you know, 2018 or 2017.
20:28And it's like the Colin Kaepernick stuff all over.
20:31Yeah, I mean, I was gonna throw out Justin Fields.
20:34We were still drafting. I mean, not we, you guys were still drafting Justin Fields like as like around the quarterback 10
20:41after years of proof that he was not a good starting quarterback, at least with the Malik Willis stuff.
20:46Like he could be a boat in the small sample size says you might have a little Duffy boat waiting for you right here.
20:53So I think he's a great pick, especially in like deeper redraft leagues.
20:57Like if you wanted to go with Justin Herbert and then you have Malik Willis kind of sitting on the bench.
21:03I do think that he's good enough as a bench stash, even in like a 10, 12 team league.
21:09I think a lot of the quarterback, the top 18 quarterbacks, like they all look pretty dang good to me.
21:15I'll mention Jordan Love as maybe like another sleeper for doing something like more in the Matthew Stafford bucket of just like
21:21get red hot in terms of passing touchdowns and ascending offense.
21:25And all of a sudden he can be a top 10 fantasy quarterback.
21:29But I do think we did hit on the two sleeper quarterbacks this year.
21:33And like there's really no need to mention Strouds and Bryce Youngs and those guys.
21:37And again, I mean, on this episode last year, we brought up Drake May.
21:41We brought up Trevor Lawrence and like those guys absolutely hit for where they were being drafted.
21:46It just feels like we are drafting in a different environment, selecting from a different quarterback pool environment this year than we were last year.
21:54And for that reason, again, I continue to mention I am drafting Josh Allen in the third round.
21:59I am definitely going for this Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Jaden Daniels area of mid round five to mid round six on top of that as well.
22:07It's also an easier case to make for Kyler Murray when, you know, his surrounding cast is Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison
22:13and Juwan Jennings versus, you know, Malik Willis, Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, Chris Bell, Caleb Douglas, Malik Washington, Kevin Coleman Jr.
22:20But, you know, that's why you get him a few rounds later, too.
22:24Yep. That's Kyler Murray. I mean, just make the thumbnail, Kyler Murray.
22:27Just remember, Kyler Murray, this show. It's going to work.
22:30Just because of that, I'm going to make the thumbnail, Malik Willis, and we're going to roll from there.
22:36All right. Again, we don't want to waste your time with four or six names.
22:40These are the two that you should be targeting.
22:43We will waste your time with tight ends and wide receiver sleeper videos on the way in the coming days.
22:49So be on the lookout for that. Hit subscribe.
22:51It would be lovely if we could reach 1,000 likes, thumbs up on this video.
22:56And hit subscribe because, once again, it's totally free to all of you.
23:00We'll check in the next video. See ya.
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