Underdog Fantasy Football Show

Has a 10% success rate on 20 carries this season, which is the worst among any running back with 20+ carries in the NFL so far this year; this efficiency metric raises concerns about his ability to produce despite volume.

Ranked RB 40 due to Miami Dolphins being projected for only 14 points this week; source expresses concern about the matchup against Brian Flores' defense, which historically shuts down inexperienced offenses. The Broncos have the youngest offense in the NFL, making them vulnerable to Flores' scheme. Additionally, uncertainty around Jalen Wright's availability adds to the downside.

Ranked RB 38 with RB 36 usage; source moved him up a couple of spots due to a better matchup this week, suggesting potential for upside relative to his ranking.

Ranked RB35, behind Trevion Henderson. Despite out-snapping Rhamondre Stevenson 32 to 17 with Drake May on the field last week, the source ranks Henderson ahead, suggesting Henderson is the preferred goal-line back in the Patriots' offense.

Ranked as the first Patriots running back off the board (ahead of Ramondre Stevenson at RB35) in a matchup at the Buffalo Bills. The source notes a sizable ranking gap and points to Henderson's 36-yard touchdown as evidence of the Patriots' desperation to generate explosive plays; when the offense has been at its best this season, Henderson has been the beneficiary of goal-line work.

Ranked RB29 this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night. Averaging 3 yards per carry (39th among all RBs) with a 26% success rate (39th) and 35th in 10+ yard runs. The source calls him "one of the easiest players to rank" because usage and efficiency are both stagnant; he's barely fantasy relevant in close games or wins over the last two weeks and is a flex play at best in half-PPR. While the source believes Judkins is better than his season performance and credits Todd Monken's offense, the Steelers' elite defensive line (heavily invested in) and Judkins' new offensive line create headwinds. RB22 in usage but RB29 in ranking.

A lot of his work has been as a receiver against the 49ers defense; the source would understand starting RJ Harvey in the flex if necessary, suggesting secondary consideration behind Dobbins in this matchup.

Ranked RB25 this week, four spots above consensus (RB29), on the road against the 49ers who will be without Nick Bosa and are down three defensive tackles and two other edge rushers. Despite poor underlying metrics—40th in success rate, 33rd in 10+ yard rate, 39th in yards after contact per attempt among 42 RBs with 20+ carries—the 49ers' defensive injuries create a favorable matchup; Jeremiah Love scored RB7, Devon Achan RB16, Kyron Williams RB16, and Kenneth Walker 34 points against this defense in recent games. Dobbins has seen the most red zone carries on his team (six) and is projected for 67.5 total yards; the source views him as the goal line favorite and feels comfortable with his two-yard-line usage despite Jonah Coleman's absence.

JK Dobbins is ranked RB25 by the source, four spots ahead of consensus (RB29), but the underlying metrics are poor; among 42 running backs with 20+ carries, Dobbins ranks 40th in success rate, 33rd in 10+ yard rate, and 39th in another efficiency metric, suggesting the ranking upgrade is not supported by performance data.

CJ Donaldson received 11 snaps without Travis Etienne last week and handles all late-down work in the Saints three-back committee, but does not factor into early-down or goal-line opportunities.

Kendra Miller received 14 snaps and 5 carries (out of 14 total) without Travis Etienne last week, placing him behind Alvin Camara in the three-back committee; goal-line work remains unclear between Miller and Camara.

Alvin Camara is ranked RB36 in consensus but RB24 by the source, a 12-spot upgrade. The source cites Evan Silva's reporting that Underhill indicated Camara is the plan; last week without Travis Etienne, Camara had 22 snaps (most of the three-back committee), 9 of 14 carries, and the source projects the Saints offense for 25 points (ninth-most in NFL) against Atlanta's depleted front seven. Despite concerns about the committee and Camara's fit, the matchup and snap share support the ranking bump.

The source questions why Kenny Gainwell isn't getting more involved in the Eagles offense, suggesting the team is burning his contract by not utilizing him more effectively.

Bucky Irving was benched or injured after getting lit up in pass protection; unclear if hip injury, shoulder, or other issue, but he didn't play after the incident, raising concerns about his availability and role going forward.

Jalen Daniels is listed as limited on the injury report with a new brace and may play this week against Green Bay. The source expresses uncertainty about his availability and suggests waiting another week before playing him in the London game, indicating caution about his readiness despite the new brace.

Bucky Irving is ranked RB23 for Week 4 against Green Bay despite being one of only three running backs with at least 10% target share in every game this season. The source expects the backup quarterback situation (Jalen Daniels potentially limited with a new brace) might increase Irving's usage, but projects only 18 points (29th in the NFL). Irving did not play after getting lit up in pass protection with a hip injury, which creates concern about his effectiveness and availability.

Allen is classified as B-tier against Chicago. He played 84 of 88 snaps without Brees Hall this season, with Isaiah Davis available but not yet playing offensive snaps. The source projects Allen to receive approximately 80% of the Jets' backfield value; through three weeks, the Jets RB room averaged 20.1 expected half-PPR points, which at 80% allocation yields 16 expected fantasy points for Allen. Even at a conservative 13 fantasy points (if he underperforms), that qualifies as RB2 production. The source concludes: 'if you're going to be on the field that much, it doesn't matter' regarding talent concerns.

Montgomery is ranked RB20 this week against Dallas, a matchup the source views favorably despite his poor efficiency (3 YPC in week 1, 1.8 YPC in week 2) and snap-share concerns with Woody Marks. The Texans are projected for 25.5 points; Nico Collins' return should afford Montgomery more goal-line opportunities, and Dallas's defense relies on rookies with communication issues and questionable coaching. Ed Ingram's return at right guard may also improve the offensive line. The source states: 'of all the weeks, this week feels a little bit better to be optimistic for David Montgomery.'

Woody Marks is getting increased work for the Texans, with Dan Graziano reporting that the team will 'give Woody Marks more work moving forward.' He's already in a 50-50 snap split with David Montgomery, positioning him as a potential breakout candidate if the split continues to favor him.

David Montgomery is ranked RB 20. Despite scoring three touchdowns in week one, he averaged only 3 yards per carry in week one and 1.8 yards per carry in week two. Dan Graziano reported that 'my sense is that the Texans will give Woody Marks more work moving forward,' indicating a 50-50 snap split is already in place, which threatens Montgomery's workload and upside.

Chris Rodriguez is getting some goal-line carries for the Texans, limiting Rachael Tootin's high-value touch opportunities, though Tootin is still expected to get 'a large chunk' of them.

Saquon Barkley had four carries for 73 yards in the first half with space, showing he 'still has the juice' and ability, but the defense and passing game faltered, leading to four ineffective runs in the second half and abandonment of the run game. He's averaging 11.22 mph crossing the line of scrimmage (second-fastest among RBs with 25+ carries) and gains 8 yards per carry when not touched behind the line (third-most in that group). However, the Eagles are projected for only 20.25 points (the source hasn't seen them that low in a while), the offensive line looked only slightly better, and he's averaging just one catch per game. He's more likely to hit explosive plays than Cam Akers or Javante Williams but less likely to get goal-line touchdowns due to Jalen Hurts' rushing role. The source concludes 'it's the right tier for him' but notes game flow may not be in his favor.

Javante Williams is ranked RB 17 against the Texans (down from RB 12 in games where the Cowboys project for 26+ points). The Cowboys are on the road, projected for just under 23 points, and are 2.5-point underdogs. The Texans defense is elite—they've already faced Jonathan Taylor, James Cook, and Chase Brown without allowing a touchdown, and they're averaging just 87 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Williams is averaging 3.3 receptions per game, which provides some floor, but the source describes the matchup as 'the worst matchup in fantasy' and says 'you're flipping coins' on whether he scores a touchdown.

Cam Akers is the first B-tier running back against the Cardinals. The Giants are projected for only 21 points (bottom third of the NFL), and Akers is averaging RB 21 in points per game through three weeks. Over the last two games, his reception totals have returned to rookie-season levels. With Devin Singletary healthy but scratched, the source views this as a net win for Akers. He's been RB 8 in expected points over the last two weeks and was a top-12 player in expected points last year. The source compares him favorably to Ashton Gentry—similar team totals, likely to catch three passes, and get most goal-line work—and suggests he's 'maybe like a little bit of an underrated RB two right now.'

Chase Brown is the last A-tier running back and a positive regression candidate, but the Jacksonville matchup is difficult. His target share has dropped to 10.7% (15th among RBs) from around 16% last year, which would equate to roughly 35 fewer targets for the season—a notable decline. The Jaguars' defensive line is elite (third-best against RBs last season, averaging 58 rushing yards per game allowed this season, fourth-best). However, the Bengals are projected for 27 points (fourth-most), so the source is 'riding the environment' despite disliking the matchup.

DeAndre Swift is ranked RB 14 and belongs in A-tier. He already has the second-most carries inside the 10-yard line (10 total) with two touchdowns on them. The Jets present an easier matchup than the Vikings (week before), and the Bears project for 23.5 points. The source is watching whether Kyle Manung's increased snap share last week was due to injury, a revenge game, or just noise; Swift played the first snap on 7 of 9 drives and got both goal-line attempts, suggesting a favorable split that could be a trend.

Mike Washington is getting change-of-pace work for the Raiders that the source believes is 'real enough' to expand as he continues to make plays, potentially cutting into Ashton Gentry's workload.

Blake Corum is top-four in yards before contact per attempt alongside Kyron Williams, reflecting the Rams' strong offensive line and Sean McVay's smart play-calling. The source expects the Rams to rely heavily on Corum, Williams, and Tyler Higbee if Puka Nakua, Terrence Ferguson, and Colby Parkinson miss games.

Kyron Williams is ranked RB 12 against the Eagles. Both he and Blake Corum are top-four in yards before contact per attempt, reflecting the Rams' strong offensive line. The source notes that whenever the Rams lose or play in overtime, Williams gets targeted heavily, averaging 4.4 targets in those games; he was motioned to the slot in a close game last week. The Eagles' defense is good but not elite—Jalen Carter is playing through injuries and won't be himself for a while. The Rams are projected for the 16th most points, which is why he's ranked lower than his recent finishes.

Jalen Warren is ranked RB 11 and has played 93% of snaps since week two without Rico Doudal on the field; the source emphasizes 'it's just all Jalen Warren' on short rest against the Browns. He's described as 'by far the most explosive player' and a top-10 running back last week; the Steelers' offensive line looked very good, and he's projected for 101.5 total yards. Three running backs have gotten 15+ touches for the Browns this season, suggesting Warren's volume might be close to a career high.

The source identifies buying low on Jordan Mason as 'pretty ripe' right now while he recovers from thumb or hand surgery. Once Mason returns, Aaron Jones' workload is expected to decrease significantly, creating an opportunity to acquire Mason at a discount before his role expands.

Aaron Jones is seeing at least 80% of the workload and doesn't come off the field; the source expects him to have 20+ carries against the Vikings, who are the most run-heavy team in the NFL through three weeks and dead last in success rate at 28%. Despite being RB 15-22 in usage over the last two weeks while the Vikings scored 16 points per game, he was still a top-15 running back; the source projects significant upside when the Vikings' offense improves.

Jones is RB10 for the source versus consensus RB17, facing the Miami Dolphins in what the source calls the best matchup in the entire NFL. Kevin O'Connell stated: 'We would love to have him in there for every single snap if we could. It's just we're putting a lot on him right now and he's handling it. We're trying to navigate it to make sure that he's the lead back.' The source expects Jones to see at least 80% of the workload, as he pretty much doesn't come off the field. The Vikings are expected to score 24.5 points, and the Dolphins are not expected to put up points against the Vikings defense.

Hubbard is RB9 for the source versus consensus RB14, placed in A-tier against Detroit despite Panthers offensive line injuries (Damian Lewis ruled out). The Panthers are still projected for nearly 24 points at home on Sunday night football. Hubbard pretty much doesn't come off the field and is game-script independent due to his volume-based role. He is RB9 on RB15 usage and was RB12 on RB7 usage in 2024, consistently hovering around the RB12 border. If the Panthers trail, Chuba would see even more work without A.J. Dillon, and he has been quite good efficiency-wise.

Love is RB8 for the source, the highest ranking he has received heading into a game this season, facing the New York Giants. Despite being known for flash and explosiveness, he has the ninth-best success rate among all running backs with 25-plus carries, showing he can grind it out. He handled 26 touches in week three and is a 214-pound back, which the source suggests gives him additional yards compared to lighter backs. The Cardinals' offensive line is fine (not great, not terrible), and the Giants defense lacks high-quality defensive tackles, has a rookie linebacker in Arbel Reese, and will be without Brian Burns. The Cardinals are projected for the 14th most points.

Cook is coming off a sensational 2025-esque game and faces the New England Patriots in week four. His role is identical to last year through three weeks, averaging 1.3 receptions per game (RB33) while being top-10 in carries per game and rushing yards per game. The Bills have many goal-line attempts due to being an awesome offense, and while Josh Allen will get some goal-line touchdowns, Cook will get his share. He has excellent efficiency on the ground and has ripped explosive plays. The Patriots have been very good against fantasy running backs, but the source largely throws out this elite run defense; Jaguars running backs combined for the third most points against the Patriots last week, and Cook had three touchdowns and 100 yards in his last game against them.

McCaffrey is S-tier against Denver in a close game (3-point favorite for the 49ers). The source calls this a 'trust the tape play' because Denver's linebackers have been heavily targeted and are the weak spot of the unit. Sean McVay exploited this with Kyron Williams in slot routes, and Kenneth Walker and Bejal Tootin broke many tackles against these linebackers. With John Franklin-Myers out and Jonathan Cooper silent due to domestic abuse allegations, this is a great spot for McCaffrey. The 49ers are projected for 25.25 points, and this is the first game where they really need him after managing without him against the Rams and Dolphins.

Taylor is ranked RB4 by the source, slightly higher than consensus RB6, and placed in A-tier against Washington. With Daniel Jones available, he is RB1 overall and RB3 in usage, averaging over 100 rushing yards and 1.25 rushing touchdowns per game. The Commanders' defense is weakened with Leo Chennault out for the season with neck surgery and Frankie Lubin potentially returning but not guaranteed to play. The Commanders' linebackers are on their fourth and fifth strings, creating a gettable environment. However, on-off splits with Alex Pierce show significant drops in efficiency when Pierce is off the field (30th in yards per carry and contact per attempt vs. second and fourth with Pierce on).

Walker is S-tier against Las Vegas with elite efficiency metrics: top of the list in forced missed tackles and 10-plus yard runs, near the top in success rate among all running backs. This represents a dramatic environmental change from his Seattle years when he was criticized for lower efficiency. He is RB5 in carries per game, RB6 in receptions per game, and the Chiefs offense is seventh in points per drive and fifth in projected points. The Raiders are only expected to lose by 4.5 points, suggesting a close game that should result in more Kenneth Walker usage than last week.

Robinson is S-tier against New Orleans with Michael Penix at quarterback. He has cleared 25 half-PPR points in six of his 10 most recent games and is the RB1 overall with Penix at 22.6 half-PPR points per game over 13 games since late 2024, compared to his performance with Cooper Rush. While the Saints defense is solid and only one running back has cleared 21 half-PPR points against them dating back to 2025, Robinson is still scoring over 23 points per contest and remains on a legendary season trajectory.