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0:57This happens every single year. He finished last year and vice versa.
1:00So let's start with that group. Okay. And the lead off man is Justin Jefferson, who is drafted as the wide receiver
1:07six right now over an underdog and finished last year as the wide receiver 37.
1:11Does that make sense to you? Yeah, I think that Justin Jefferson's in the ball out again.
1:16I think Kyler Murray is definitely a good enough quarterback to get the ball to Justin Jefferson and from 2022 to 2024.
1:23He had the most PPR points per game at 20 and most of you guys are your drafting in full PPR.
1:29And that's if we remove the Josh Dobbs and Jaron Hall games.
1:33He's averaging 100 yards per game. So like it's really just came down to how bad J.J.
1:38McCarthy was, which makes me feel very confident that Kyler Murray is going to easily win this job.
1:43I think more or less they've already come out and said that and Justin Jefferson.
1:48Nothing's changed about Justin Jefferson. Nothing's changed about Kevin O'Connell and Kyler Murray wants to throw the ball back shoulders downfield passes.
1:54That's what Kyler Murray wants to do. It's what Kevin O'Connell wants to do.
1:58And it's what Justin Jefferson is so good at.
2:01So like I think we're just going to like throw out 2025, put in the baseline from the other seasons.
2:07Could Kyler Murray be as good as Kirk Cousins?
2:10Of course. And I'm drafting him in the first round.
2:13Yeah, I mean he finishes the wide receiver three in points per game with Sam Darnold and finishes the wide receiver five
2:19in points per game with Kirk Cousins and Nick Mullins.
2:22So it was nothing in terms of Kevin O'Connell putting him in a position of success or failure last year that led him to the wide receiver 37.
2:30It was just all about the quarterback play like that.
2:33That was the big change here. Like again pointing out some things that Reeves noted.
2:38He commanded 30% of his team targets last year wide receiver four 39% of the team's air yards.
2:43That's wide receiver five and yet that equal to wide receiver 37 season because of environment.
2:48I actually went back and watch those Nick Mullins games that they play together in terms of homework for this because I
2:54thought, okay, we know what he did with Darnold and we know we did with cousins.
2:59What can he even do with a quarterback at a tier below that but also perform better than JJ McCarthy?
3:05That was my mindset heading into that. That may be stupid transitional properties, but that's that's what I'm like it.
3:11And what I learned is that a quarterback in order to have success in this offense and especially success with Justin Jefferson
3:18is you have to throw into tight windows. You have to stand tall versus pressure.
3:22You need to play on time and you need to trust the plan to play throwing with anticipation into his own windows.
3:29If you do all that stuff, then you're going to have success and you're going to have Justin Jefferson just making freaking plays for you.
3:36And simply put JJ McCarthy could not do that last season.
3:39Kyler Murray and we talked about a wide receiver that was attached to him last season.
3:44It can be up and down with some of that stuff in terms of standing tall and you know, not falling away from throws and playing on time.
3:52But I also believe that KOC while the three names that we mainly mentioned there like pure pocket read it out players
3:59and throw with anticipation will also accentuate the strengths that Kyler Murray does have and does bring to the table.
4:05And I think obviously Justin Jefferson's talent is multiple and feasible enough that he is absolutely worth this end of the first round draft pick that we're spinning.
4:13And Kyler, he has had 88 yards per game seasons with the Andre Hopkins another 80 yard season with the Andre Hopkins
4:20training McBride had 72 yards per game. So like Kyler Murray for has for his flaws has elevated players to like really
4:26high end degrees last year was really bad with Marvin Harris and Mike Michael Wilson and training McBride obviously but you go
4:33back and watch even the first couple games of the season last year and I mean if Marvin Harrison caught the football
4:39like it this this the stat lines would look a whole lot better.
4:43And obviously Justin Jefferson will so I think that Kyler Murray I think this is going to be like the floor and
4:50I think it's actually a very similar situation to when Sam Darnold got with Kevin O'Connell and that was the floor of Sam Darnold.
4:57And here comes Kyler Murray and it's going to be an excellent season to the point I think Kyler Murray is like
5:03the sleeper quarterback if you will who has a chance to be a top five fantasy quarterback that gets drafted like quarterback 12.
5:10This is a great environment. This has been the case for like four or five seasons in a row.
5:16It really is as simple as if you trust the environment and don't get concerned with everything flying around you and just
5:22make the throws that you planned all week on time and in rhythm.
5:26You're gonna have success in this offense. And so again, it comes down to the KOC Josh recount coaching of it all
5:33here with Kyler a little bit, but I am believing that it is possible.
5:37It's gonna be much closer to the wide receiver six outcome and maybe even ahead of that versus the wide receiver 37
5:44and points per game outcome that we got last year.
5:46All right, another one and another big topic here.
5:49He finished as the wide receiver 45 last year, but now he's being drafted as the wide receiver 31.
5:55This is Brian Thomas Jr. What are your expectations for 2026?
5:58I think it's gonna be pretty volatile week to week because it does seem like he's gonna be the vertical element in this offense.
6:05I got him ranked wide receiver 30. So I think he should be ranked ahead of where he finished last year.
6:11I got him. I'm pretty much in line in ADP here.
6:15I think that Parker Washington is going to get a lot of like the gimme looks.
6:19Jacoby Myers is going to run across the middle and get drilled by safeties and linebackers.
6:24And then Brian Thomas will have some yak moments, but for the most part will be used down the field in half PPR is half PPR best ball.
6:33We don't mind that in full PPR redraft leagues cut might be a little bit frustrating for us, but Brian Thomas has been lighting it up in camp.
6:41If you go read Shipley, he's been like one of the MVPs of the offense.
6:45Liam Cohen's talked glowingly about him. And if we zoom back out wide receivers who drafted in the first round with his
6:52speed, who went from who went to LSU, who had his rookie season.
6:56These are some of the best wide receivers in the NFL.
6:59I know last year was a complete disaster playing through multiple injuries, was not playing confident over the middle.
7:05Obviously, the timing, everything was bad and all those narratives were true.
7:08And still, he's one of the most talented wide receivers on the football field.
7:12Him watching or him pulling away from the DBs.
7:15It's like ridiculous to watch. So I think for the most part, I'm taking an optimistic look here.
7:20I don't think he's going to have, you know, 95 receptions in the season, though.
7:25Truly one of the fastest players in the league.
7:28Like he ranks up there in GPS every single year.
7:30It's funny. Typically, when we talk about disaster seasons, it means the team also had a disaster year.
7:36And that's the exact opposite. Like the Jaguars were freaking awesome in terms of expectations on previous years.
7:41And then Brian Thomas was like the letdown piece of it all.
7:45You mentioned John Shipley. We're a fan favorite of John Shipley here.
7:48This is what he wrote. The Jaguars scheme focused more on intermediate passing last season than it did in any other year in Lawrence's career as quarterback.
7:56And the Jaguars tried to force the issue with Thomas in the department a year ago.
8:01They entered the year with plans to funnel the entire passing game through him.
8:05But drops were an issue over the middle of the field until they adjusted his role by the second half of the season.
8:12And I totally agree. I mean, you can watch that Bengals tape if you want to.
8:17But I watched, you know, all 30 targets that he had over the middle of the field.
8:22And he was tentative. It was kind of Jordan Tyson-ish in some ways where he would like fall down after the catch,
8:28alligator arm it, not come up with these big time catches.
8:32And that just comes down to, you know, his preseason injury.
8:35And it mentally impacted him through the entire year.
8:38Now, in that absence and what we know about Liam Cohen's offense dating back to the time with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8:44is like the crossing routes over the middle of the field in the intermediate portion is the most consistent element here.
8:50And so in BTJ's absence, that became Jacoby Myers.
8:53That became Parker Washington, who Shipley projects as the player who is going to lead this team in receiving this year.
8:59It is just fascinating to me that in year three, here we are.
9:03And this is a player who was at the one-two turn last year, then finishes the wide receiver 45.
9:09And now we're back somewhat in the middle, but not really as wide receiver 31.
9:13And it's kind of tough for me to totally know what the outcome is here, other than it's probably going to be
9:20the more high variance downfield shot-ish stuff as you brought up initially.
9:23Yeah, I think the other big thing with Jacksonville is the two tight end looks.
9:28And if that's going to be more of a balanced kind of offense, I do think that Brian Thompson is going to
9:34be on the field for those two wide receiver sets, especially if you're going to do a bunch of play action deep shots.
9:41Like you have to have somebody that can stretch the field, and obviously he's one of the best field stretchers in the game.
9:48So I do think that he's going to be a near full-time player in the offense.
9:53I think Jacoby and Parker and Travis Hunter, those guys will rotate.
9:56That does not mean Brian Thomas is going to lead this team in receptions.
10:01It's certainly possible. But I do think the 100-yard games, there will be many of them for Brian Thomas this year.
10:07It might be difficult for us to predict. Half PPR best ball, I really like the price.
10:12And then we'll see where he is in the Yahoo drafts.
10:15And I think that I will have some interest there just betting on.
10:19Year three player, really fast, really good prospects. Sensational rookie season, just buying the dip.
10:23I do want to bring up, he was going 12th overall this time last year.
10:28Is that 12th overall player still there? It would require him to work over the middle, like you said.
10:34It's a very important part of this offense. The thing about Chris Godwin and those type of guys, you have to be able to do that.
10:41Last year was really bad at it. I think in theory, like three years from now, we can say he's a full route tree player.
10:49It's possible. I don't think it's most likely, but it's possible.
10:52Yeah, I think it's not impossible, but closer to that.
10:55In that, exactly what I said and what we heard last offseason was that the passing game is going to funnel through BTJ.
11:02And it makes sense after his rookie year. And that just doesn't have to be the case now.
11:07Because at that time, Parker Washington had not broken out.
11:10They had not made the Chakotby Myers trade. They had taken Travis Hunter, but we didn't know exactly what his role would be on offense.
11:18We found out in the opening four weeks of the year that it was somewhat minimal and scripted and designed.
11:23So I think they kind of got to a point where Brian Thomas Jr.
11:28showed that he should not have the passing game funneled through him.
11:31That doesn't mean he's going to be unproductive. And we also know that the seasons can be very freaking long.
11:37And he also showed extreme talent during his rookie year.
11:40So the upside is even higher than this wide receiver 31 outcome here, too.
11:44I mean, Alec Pierce was a field stretcher only.
11:47And then this last season did a whole lot more in the other parts of the field.
11:52Like there is player development that happens. George Pickens was a one-dimensional guy.
11:56And then this last year started showing more. So I think the baseline case is like he will be better working over
12:02the middle than he was the previous season. I also think that Brian Thomas on some of the screens and remember something
12:09like the little jet plays that they would have with Brian Thomas, like shallow crosses as a rookie.
12:14He would catch those things and be 60 yard touchdowns.
12:17And it looked like an alien out there. So like I do think there's some of that potential in Brian Thomas.
12:23I think he clearly has the most upside of anybody in this Jacksonville offense at ADP.
12:28I just like you said, you can't be confident.
12:31It's like going to happen. Sorry to keep harping on this, but I do think it's again such a drastic conversation that we had a year ago.
12:39He was being selected around names like Puka Nakua, Amonra St.
12:42Brown, Drake London, AJ Brown at wide receivers. Are we at the point now when we talk about high variance, more of
12:49a downfield threat, open it up for everyone else that he is more heading into this year in the vein of Jamison
12:55Williams and like the peak of what we thought like Gabe Davis could be as this like week to week roller coaster.
13:02Like have we just changed the narrative around Brian Thomas Jr.
13:05that much in one offseason? Yeah, that's I mean, I think that's probably a fair, fair point.
13:10Like the guys I have him right next to is Carnell Tate, Alec Pierce, Quinton Johnson, Jordan Addison, Marvin Harrison.
13:16Like those guys are all to me. It's the same type of player.
13:20I think Brian Thomas is the most talented of all of those guys.
13:24Then that's why I rank him the highest. But he's not like as well-rounded as, you know, Mike Evans, Devante Adams, Christian
13:30Watson, who I think have just established that they're doing it.
13:34So I think that we've grouped these guys together properly.
13:37And then it's just like, all right, we're flipping coins.
13:40Your three breakout. Like how real is this? But like him versus, you know, Marvin Harrison, Parker, Washington, like those guys.
13:46I do think that his his athletic ceiling is like so much higher than those guys that I want to draft him.
13:52Yeah. But at the same time, when he was on the field with all those guys last year, his target share was
13:59much lower, albeit his targets were further down the field.
14:02I would love a Christian Watson like trajectory for him.
14:05That'd be amazing. You know, we saw the early parts of Christian Watson's career where he was hitting on all the high
14:11variance stuff and he was running extremely hot. And I think you could argue with Mac Jones.
14:16That was kind of happening with Brian Thomas Jr.
14:19A little bit during his rookie year. And then what we saw last year from Christian Watson, albeit off injury, was much more of a complete player.
14:27A third down presence. Someone who ran out routes and plays at the sticks much more often.
14:32And if BTJ can kind of, you know, develop into that, too, I think it's a possibility.
14:37And that would be awesome. So just at his ADP, are you kind of in or are you kind of out?
14:43Yeah, yeah. No, I am. I just it was more of like a theoretical entire conversation about him right now.
14:49Now, you know me. I'm drafting a lot of Christian Watson, who is in that area.
14:54Roma Doomsday is right before him. Carnot Tate I'm drafting.
14:57And then it's BTJ. And then it's Tyler Warren.
15:00So this is, again, one of these cluster of pick areas where I want almost all these names.
15:05And then I get to other sections of drafts where I don't want any of the players in about a 12 pick stretch.
15:12And then I love all those like borderline elite quarterbacks that get drafted right at him.
15:17So I think like among wide receivers, I like him where he's being ranked.
15:21I think versus, you know, some of these quarterbacks and stuff, I think I can be swung.
15:26This is in half PPR. Obviously, full PPR things kind of change a little bit.
15:30So I'm really excited. I think there's still a ton of potential with Brian Thomas.
15:35And I do think we could look back and be like, yeah, it was probably his collarbone being on sideways was the
15:41reason why he didn't want to get hit over the middle.
15:45And I think we would say, yeah, that makes sense.
15:48And once again, he is the first Jaguars wide receiver off the board.
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16:18All right, let's jump back up the board and let's talk to Devante Smith.
16:22He finished last year as the wide receiver 31 now being drafted as the wide receiver 11.
16:27Obviously, we can say, well, AJ Brown's gone. Of course, that's why he's jumping from wide receiver 31 to wide receiver 11.
16:33I want you to go a bit deeper than that.
16:36Why should this ADP still make sense for us?
16:39Okay. So he had a really good rookie season.
16:42And then since then, he's had five games without AJ Brown.
16:45He's the wide receiver three in yards per game.
16:48That's at 89 yards per game on wide receiver 10 targets.
16:51That's nine per game. So we're talking about very small sample size here.
16:55But in that sample size, Devante Smith proves that he's been one of the best wide receivers.
17:00And it's only just been about the target volume.
17:03I feel pretty optimistic about the new OC that they bring in.
17:06It's going to be a lot of the Packers stuff, which is not that dissimilar to what Jalen Hurts is running.
17:12Jalen Hurts wants to be letting him play like Jordan Love down the football field.
17:17I think that's very good for Devante Smith. Smith can play inside and outside.
17:21He is one of the best wide receivers in the football league.
17:24are actually going to come with him. So obviously, there's some risk just because of how bad the Jalen Hurts season was this last season.
17:32But I think that this is going to be easily the number one season he's ever had in targets in all categories.
17:38And I view him as a quality pick in the third round.
17:42I can't go any higher than that. But I think where he's being drafted is totally fine.
17:47Without AJ Brown on the field, as you pointed out, he's had 37% of the team's targets, 2.36.
17:52yards per route run. Now, you could say, well, when AJ Brown is out, they didn't have a talent like Makai Lemon on the roster.
18:00Maybe even not like a Dontavian Wicks level talent at the wide receiver room, too.
18:04So now they do. Now they have even more players in Eli Stowers and other ones that are other options here for Devante Smith.
18:11I mean, it is like clockwork, though, where news that we all expect to happen still impacts ADP somehow in the public.
18:18I mean, he jumped from the 31st overall player to the 28th overall player, and that made him the wide receiver 14
18:25to now the wide receiver 11, just based on AJ Brown getting traded when we all knew AJ Brown was going to get traded.
18:32Yep. Yep. It's less to me about Devante Smith and more just about a functional offense.
18:36Like the more this running game can get going and doesn't have to be to the degree that 2024 was.
18:42But let's get back to, you know, league average in a lot of ways, too, in terms of success rate, explosive plays, all that stuff.
18:50Then that just changes the math in the passing game.
18:53Yeah. And what Jalen Hurts has shown in the past is when you change the math in terms of the back end
18:59and single high safeties, then he is going to generate explosive plays down the field.
19:04And Devante Smith, even in games that AJ Brown has played, has looked like the better wide receiver in certain matchups because he is a ball winner.
19:12He plays huge. He plays so long. And if he gets one-on-one coverage, he's going to be their go-to man in that department.
19:19So we can talk about the, you know, change in the offensive coordinator and all that stuff.
19:24I am so focused on just having a good rushing attack and how that's going to impact the passing game success that
19:30to me, that is like how this entire thing is going to get much closer to the top level offenses that we've
19:37seen in the Eagles in somewhat recent years. Last thing to remember Eagles last season, Lane Johnson missed a big chunk of it.
19:44Like Landon Dickerson nearly had to retire and you watch Landon Dickerson.
19:47He's back. He's just like, he was not nearly the same athlete.
19:51And then I think you just can tie it back.
19:54How many snaps, how many runs they had during that, that Superbowl run the following season, like their bodies just like did not have enough time to recover.
20:02And hopefully this year after not making it far in the playoffs at all, that they should just be healthier right now.
20:09And I think that's a huge deal for, for a quarterback that plays like Jalen Hurts does.
20:14One more who's being selected much earlier than when you finished last year.
20:17And I can't wait for this conversation. That's Josh Downs of the Indianapolis Colts.
20:22Finished last year as a wide receiver, 56 in points per game.
20:25Let's also remember where the Colts finished offensively. And now he's being drafted as the wide receiver, 43.
20:31Where are we at with Josh Downs and how his role can grow?
20:34And if the Colts can maintain their level of success like they did last year?
20:39I mean, there's really no excuses for him to not play more.
20:42Just looking at the depth chart, like you remove Michael Pittman and all of a sudden, like it needs to be Josh Downs.
20:49And we got a report, gone are the days of Downs being used as a slot receiver.
20:54Steichen plans to move Downs all across the formation, which he typically already does, giving ample opportunities to play on the outside and exploit mismatches against opposing defenses.
21:03Downs was seen on the outside plenty of times already at mandatory minicamp, making plays no matter which quarterback was targeting the offense.
21:09That comes from Sports Illustrated. So there's at least some evidence that he's going to be playing in two wide receiver sets.
21:16And if he does play in two wide receiver sets, this ADP is just straight up wrong, especially because Alec Pierce is
21:23very clearly in the middle of a rehab for a surgery he did not want to have.
21:28And it was a little bit delayed. So if Alec Pierce has a step back, big news for Josh Downs.
21:34If Josh Downs just plays two wide receiver sets, that's big news.
21:37If we get both those things together, he's going to be one of the best wide receiver picks out there.
21:43And he's not like the traditional like wide receiver, a slot wide receiver.
21:47Like he makes some serious plays down the football field.
21:50I'm sure that you're going to bring those up.
21:53I mean, I want to believe in Josh Downs so much.
21:56The passing game revolved around him at UNC when he was attached to Drake May during that time.
22:01Right. And he was like a slot plus receiver.
22:04He was winning down the field. He was winning in isolation.
22:07He was great in zone coverage, too. But obviously, at his frame, at his size, at 5'9", 171, as soon as you
22:14enter the NFL, you are pigeonholed as a player because everyone does it.
22:17What I am afraid of, and I went back, and, you know, Reeves has talked about this.
22:23Josh Downs has only run 33 routes in one or two receiver sets in his entire career so far.
22:28Yeah, not good. So I didn't want to go and watch those 33 routes because he might not even be targeted in those options.
22:35Instead, last year, because this is, you know, a Daniel Jones and Shane Sykin operation, I went back and watched his 16
22:42targets listed as an outside wide receiver. Unfortunately, even when you're listed as an outside receiver, sometimes that means you are motioned into a stack.
22:49Other times it also means a tight end or a wide receiver is motioned outside of you so the leverage changes at the time of the snap.
22:57And so it's not true, like on the ball, pure outside to wide receiver stuff.
23:02And he's still going to move around even if he earns two wide receiver things.
23:06I was a bit nervous about what I saw just because it still felt like in those moments, Shane Sykin didn't want
23:13for him to operate as like a real wide receiver.
23:16He had a 5.4 ADOT. It was, you know, some screen passes.
23:19It was speed outs. It really was nothing, nothing down the field.
23:23So on paper, he should no matter what get two wide receiver set stuff.
23:27That is the first bar to clear. And even if he clears that, I think this ADP easily is undervaluing him.
23:33I do have some level of question that he's going to be highly successful with that.
23:38But at the same time, I believe in him and I want him to be successful because I do think he is
23:45maybe one of the more not overlooked, but underused wide receivers across the league.
23:49But at the same time, I also will know why it didn't work if it doesn't work.
23:54Yeah. I mean, he's he's drafted ahead of where he was this last season, rightfully so.
23:59But I do think there is a just ceiling to his game because of the size.
24:03And, you know, we've we've kind of hoped that downs would kind of grow into this role that we're we might be getting this year.
24:11Jeed and Reed, it's been the same way. So it would not be that surprising if he's not out there for all of them.
24:18But like he goes around ahead of Michael Pittman, for example, and we know what Michael Pittman is and how he and
24:24we will talk about Michael Pittman here in a moment.
24:27Right. He's going ahead of Jacoby Myers, who really brought, you know, stability to the Jaguars.
24:32So it's not like we are getting to me.
24:35Josh Downs at much of a discount per se.
24:37Like we are still having to invest a premium wide receiver pick in him where there are more stable options around.
24:44But I would still take him ahead of someone like Xavier Worthy, for example, who is going to wide receiver spots after him.
24:51Could you go up to the depth knockdown and there should be a wide receiver tight end?
24:56And I'm curious because he's the third wide receiver slash tight end.
24:59So we have Alec Pierce is the second cold.
25:02If you go to the third option, I'm guessing Downs is one of the first third options we're drafting in fantasy.
25:08And that makes me a little bit nervous just because we're trying to get a lot of things right.
25:14He is. So it's Roma Dunze, Jaden Reed, and then Josh Downs is the next one.
25:18Yeah. My ranking is pretty close in ADP. And that's with me assuming that he's going to play a lot more snaps
25:25than he ever has and discounting with the Alec Pierce stuff.
25:28To me, it's just still hard to get to like the Quinton Johnson upside that's going around ahead.
25:34Like I think that's gonna be a full-time player working down the football field in the pass first offense.
25:39And I'm not sure if we're going to be able to say all those things with Josh Downs.
25:45So I like him. Don't love him. Well, you made a great transition for me, which by the way, we've already covered
25:51the likes of Latin McConkie, who is drafted as the wide receiver 17 finishes the wide receiver 35.
25:56Tara McClorin drafted as the wide receiver 23 finishes the wide receiver 32.
26:00Luther Burden drafted as the wide receiver 21 finishes the wide receiver 54.
26:04So if you want to hear more about those names, we have them in other videos.
26:09So click those and watch them right after this.
26:12But you talked about Quinton Johnson. So let's have another one of these conversations because he's the exact opposite.
26:17He's drafted much later than where he finished last year, where that was as the wide receiver 22 in points per game.
26:24And now you can get him as the wide receiver 38 in drafts.
26:28Does that make sense to you? No, I think this is a absolute no brainer selection.
26:32I think just zooming back out with Quinton Johnson, I had him as a second round prospect who needed development.
26:38His rookie season was really bad. His last season was certainly better and he was doing real stuff.
26:44And then this year, I'm expecting the offense to go from about league average to one of the best in the NFL.
26:50And if you go listen to our Reeves episode, he was talking about, you know, Justin Herbert might be the dang MVP
26:57because the Shanahan branch, whenever they have an elite quarterback, they go absolutely crazy.
27:01So we've seen the new OC really talk glowingly about Quinton Johnson.
27:05Another big point I wanted to bring up is Justin Herbert's footwork has changed where now his left foot is in front,
27:11which just makes like the quick hitting stuff in the offense easier to transition to.
27:16It's going to be less really deep dropbacks. I do think Quinton Johnson can be utilized in the yards after the catch role.
27:22Um, to me, he's kind of yak immediately or down the football field and everything in between is kind of lost with Quinton Johnson.
27:29I think you can do that with, with the McDaniel offense.
27:33And we've seen that with Tyree kill and Jalen Waddle.
27:36Like it's kind of not that much in between, but down the football field or underneath and go, I think that he's going to be involved here.
27:44So I think lad McConkey, Quinton Johnson, all these guys, I want to draft, but Quinton Johnson's terrible rookie season, I think has created a discount.
27:51And I want to predict the future, not draft and based off of his 2024 numbers.
27:56Again, this goes with quarterbacks. This goes with other players.
27:59So often their rookie season kind of becomes the pillar that then we judge everything off of.
28:04Whereas some people just have poor rookie seasons because of a whole bunch of things going around.
28:09And that was the case here with QJ. He had obvious flaws and he's kind of cleaned up and, you know, smoothed out some of his rough edges.
28:18There was an awesome clip that you referenced of Mike McDaniel talking to QJ during OTAs.
28:22He said, quote, your drive phase is going to fuck the league up and I want to protect that.
28:28I prefer to not see you be comfortable at the top of a stick until August because you have so much drive
28:35phase and weight that if you really utilize the drive phase, it's not going to be as clean and 90.
28:41And that's what I want. No, you'll you'll tighten up the turn as it goes.
28:45But that your drive phase right now is going to the league up.
28:49And I just want to protect that at all costs.
28:52And by that, he means that he wants him just running full speed right now.
28:56And that in August, that's when he's going to clean up the turns and the breaks in his routes, which I thought was really cool.
29:04You know, wide receiver coaching, which Mike has a history of.
29:07He's talked at length about like coaching Andre Johnson when he was this, you know, young skinny guy.
29:12And how can I give you, you know, more help and more development?
29:16And how can you trust me? It's just from improvement.
29:19Yeah, I mean, Dolphins had the second highest scoring team in 2023.
29:23So if what reads and what you just said comes into fruition, that season gave us Tyree kill the wide receiver one
29:29in points per game and Jalen Waddell, the wide receiver 22 and points per game.
29:34So this passing game can get to a point where it supports two startable fantasy wide receivers on a weekly basis.
29:40And we're really not having to pay for that.
29:43Getting Quentin Johnson outside the top 36 wide receivers at this point.
29:46Now we can throw in Trey Harris and what we like about him and maybe the Chargers do and all that type of stuff.
29:53But if you ask me right now, who are they going to be the two most productive wide receivers on this team?
30:00It's Ladd and it's QJ and there's a decent chance that both finish as top 26 wide receivers this season.
30:06Yeah, I think there's a chance that Quentin Johnson outscores Ladd depending on the format.
30:10Like he did last year. Like he did last year, you know, and like these guys are being completely in.
30:16Like I say this as somebody that's been a Quentin Johnson skeptic since I watched his film at TCU, which I did not love.
30:23It might just not matter. Like we said, it's just downfield passing with Quentin Johnson speed.
30:28And then the yak plays that Quentin Johnson is going to have because of the new OC and that they they have both tackles healthy.
30:36And that'll just allow Justin Herbert to actually read things out.
30:39Like there's a lot to like with Quentin Johnson.
30:41And if he had a decent rookie season, he would be priced in the fourth round.
30:46I think some of the issues last year that he just didn't have stats in certain games, like he had fewer than
30:5350 yards in half of his games last season, two games with zero catches.
30:57You would like to think that was a Greg Roman special and Mike McDaniel is going to get him a bit more involved.
31:04But we even know that like, again, in Jalen Waddle's wide receiver, 22 points per game season.
31:09There are some times where it just doesn't work like the wide receiver to three territory.
31:14It's a roller coaster, you know? And that's what we should expect here no matter what.
31:18Yeah. I mean, I went back and watch QJ just because I want to see what some of the differences were.
31:25I still don't think he's going to be an early separator ever, but he does have the stride length and the long
31:31speed to pull away on intermediate and deep crossers and those in breakers.
31:35And like that intermediate and in breaker stuff has actually been a lot of the most successful years in 2023 with the Dolphins.
31:42Maybe some of that was, you know, to his arm.
31:45But like Tyreek and Jalen Waddle, that was their most productive areas of the field.
31:49And I really like QJ in some of those routes.
31:52Yep. Yeah. I really have like nothing bad to say about this price tag.
31:56No, me either. I mean, you really shouldn't. And look at this.
32:00I mean, ADP has continued to climb up from starting at 94 in mid-May overall up to 80th overall at this point.
32:06And then wide receiver 43 up to wide receiver 38.
32:09And I still think wide receiver 38 is undervaluing him.
32:12I got my wide receiver 33 right next to Alec Pierce and Carnell Tate.
32:17And it's like, really? Like, who's going to score more fantasy points?
32:20Quinton Johnson or Carnell Tate? Like, I think like truth serum, I'd be like, yeah, it's probably going to be Quinton Johnson.
32:27Wow. All right. Let's talk about Michael Pittman. He finished last year on the Colts as wide receiver 28 in points per game.
32:33But right now you're able to draft him as wide receiver 48 in points per game.
32:38For me, Hayden, like if you watch him, it's glance routes, RPOs, quick hitting slants, crossers out of tight formations on boot action as well.
32:46Even screens out of stacks too. And we have said this and we'll repeat it because that's what you're supposed to do when it's a good line.
32:54Aaron Rodgers turned DK Metcalf into Michael Pittman Jr.
32:56last year. And now he just gets Michael Pittman Jr.
32:59in this offense in the areas that Aaron Rodgers loves to throw the football to at his age 40-ish season.
33:05Yeah, he's one of the later drafted wide receiver twos, so kind of in the middle rounds.
33:10And I just think that he's a really strong selection.
33:13I don't think that the gap between DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman's all that large in terms of fantasy just because I
33:20think DK Metcalf is going to go back to this downfield role.
33:23And I think that Michael Pittman is going to do the Michael Pittman stuff, which is what Aaron Rodgers likes.
33:29775 yards, that seems totally appropriate. I don't think we're chasing a ceiling here.
33:34To me, he's one of the first wide receivers on your bench.
33:37Bi-weeks come, injuries come, and you have to throw him in there and just like praying for nine PPR points.
33:43I think that's what he's going to be able to do.
33:46I don't think that Rodgers is going to turn the corner.
33:50I think Rodgers is what he is. It's going to be a balanced offense or offensive line rules.
33:55But Michael Pittman should be the guy on those audibles, those checks at the line of scrimmage, and Rodgers throws the ball immediately.
34:02I think those are going to more likely go to Michael Pittman this year than the DK Metcalf.
34:07Just to outline that comment about turning DK Metcalf into Michael Pittman last year.
34:11Last year for DK, less than 20% of his targets were 20 plus yards.
34:1544% of his targets were zero to nine yards.
34:18And at career high, 12% of his targets were behind the line of scrimmage.
34:22DK had never had a combo like that during his NFL career so far.
34:26I mean, his career ADOT dropped from 14 down to 11 last year.
34:30So you're begging for someone to win in the trash, in the muck, over the middle on these quick hitters a bit more often.
34:37And that's why they make the move for someone with Michael Pittman and gave him more money on top of it.
34:44Yep. You know? Now, I do want to say that Michael Pittman did have an awful back injury that he played through in 2024.
34:51That was one of the crazier news item and then outcomes that I can remember doing this in fantasy football, where there
34:57were reports that he was going to be shelved for like nine weeks.
35:01He missed one week of action and then just played the rest of the year.
35:06So the dude is a freaking warrior on the field.
35:09But I do want to note that, one, we might have seen already the best of Michael Pittman Jr.
35:14But two, even close to that would make him, I think, a consistent option in this offense.
35:19Yeah, I was not expecting a big ceiling in Pittsburgh offensively.
35:23So you can only draft him so high. But I do think he's a really solid player.
35:28I think he is exactly what Aaron Rodgers likes at this stage.
35:31So I think him versus DK Metcalf, it's about a coin flip.
35:35And I think his presence made me pick DK Metcalf as one of my faves.
35:39I forget exactly which episode it was, but I had talked negatively on DK Metcalf just because of this point that you're making.
35:46The last name in this group is actually Michael Wilson, a channel favorite.
35:50Finished last year as the wide receiver 24 in points per game.
35:53And now you're able to draft him as the wide receiver 44.
35:57Is that right? Well, I'm nervous about these Cardinals.
36:00Because if you look at the wide receiver slash tight end three in the offense, Michael Wilson gets drafted pretty early among
36:06wide receiver slash tight end three in the pecking order.
36:09And we know this team's going to stink. So that immediately makes me nervous.
36:13And he broke out without, obviously, Marvin Harrison. I do think it's like a...
36:18I can probably make the argument Michael Wilson's a better wide receiver than Marvin Harrison is right this second.
36:23But you should be expecting Marvin Harrison to take steps still because he's a little bit younger than Michael Wilson.
36:29I just don't have the confidence that in week one with everybody healthy that he's going to project well.
36:35And then when week 10 comes around and Carson Beck's the quarterback, like I'm just struggling to see how these guys pay off these ADPs across the board.
36:43I like them individually to like some degrees. But man, I just think three Cardinals pass catchers by the eighth round.
36:49Like, do we not see how this can go wrong?
36:52We need Jacoby Brissette to start for 17 games.
36:55I mean... It's not going to happen. And it's not going to happen.
36:59You know, he might even start seven games with how this offseason is going so far.
37:04And that's frustrating. I went back and watched early season Michael Wilson compared to later season Michael Wilson because, you know, we
37:10got five games of Kyler as a starter. And that was arguably like the worst we've seen of Kyler Murray.
37:16He was, you know, falling away from throws. It felt like every time he targeted Michael Wilson, it was kind of off
37:23target, either an overthrow or off the frame for a back shoulder.
37:26And they just weren't in seek at all in these crossing routes too.
37:30And then freaking Jacoby comes in. The touch trajectory, the timing of it all seemed like just the perfect fit.
37:36Now, you know, he was second among receivers and receptions at 56, second in receiving yards at 775 over the last eight games of last year.
37:44We know Marv only played three of those eight games.
37:47It was actually a part-time player in those three games.
37:50So that plays a part here too. But then the day, like, unless the Cardinals shock the world this year, we're not
37:56getting 17 or maybe even 12 or maybe even eight games of Jacoby Brissett at this time.
38:01So I have more confidence in Michael Wilson, which Cobra said, like you, I know that Michael Wilson is good at the game of football.
38:09I just don't know if there's going to be the environment for him to be able to expand that eight games to
38:1517 game sample from the last two years. Yeah.
38:18But is it fair that he's all the way down at wide receiver 44?
38:22I guess after he finishes wide receiver 24. I think it's totally fair.
38:26I just don't want to draft either one of these guys and I haven't been drafting Trey McBride either.
38:32You know, I think Marvin's to me like the clearest fade of them just because I don't think he's going to be
38:38a volume hog with Trey McBride there. And I'm not convinced that he's actually that much better than Michael Wilson.
38:44And then just to put the numbers on it, there was 10 games last year where Marvin Harrison had at least three targets in the games.
38:52Michael Wilson in those 10 games averaged 27 yards per game.
38:55His target share in those games was at 13%.
38:58His expected points was six half PPR. He actually had five half PPR.
39:02That's called the waiver wire. So I just, I'm just worried that, and that's that.
39:06And by the way, the Cardinals last year were first in pass attempts.
39:10That might not happen. So I, I'm not going to draft these Cardinals this year.
39:14Like there's there, the skill guys are too good for how bad the quarterback situation is going to be.
39:20We just did an episode with Ron Stewart talking about Jeremiah love go and watch that because that's a slightly different conversation.
39:27Yeah. Love's fine. Love's going to be fine. Okay.
39:29We've covered all those names. There is an interesting section in drafts right now of unsigned veteran wide receivers that are out
39:36there and some or all will find teams. Their names are Brandon Ayuk, Debo Samuel, Stefan Diggs, and even Keenan Allen.
39:42And Keenan Allen is somewhat of the latest one with news.
39:45I saw a Colts beat writer say that they could potentially sign Keenan Allen, which would, you know, dip into our Josh Downs conversation there.
39:53That's for sure. Because Keenan played for Shane Sykin with the LA Chargers and quote, if Pierce's ankle recovery is slow, it makes even more sense.
40:00So maybe that's more Alec Pierce insurance than it would be Josh Downs.
40:04But I think it would also overlap there a bit more often.
40:08Anyways, as we just talked about with the Devante Smith ADP rise when AJ Brown was traded, if any of these players
40:14sign, as soon as they do, they will shoot up draft boards and their ADP will climb instantly.
40:20So give thoughts on one or all right now.
40:22How I would rank him would be Diggs, Ayuk, Debo, Keenan.
40:26If they were just signing to all the same team, I thought Diggs season last year was really good.
40:31He's going to sign with a team shortly. His legal case is behind him.
40:35The NFL is not going to suspend him. And he's going to sign a team instantly.
40:40And there's a couple of pretty good landing spots available.
40:43Like, well, I think the Chiefs would obviously be one.
40:46The Colts have a starting spot available to him.
40:49The commanders do. I think that Ayuk is about to move teams here.
40:53I think that he's going to force the 49ers by showing up.
40:56And he seems to at least be in shape for as crazy of this offseason has been.
41:01So I think that Diggs is probably not going to climb too much more.
41:05He's the one that should be ranked the highest right now.
41:09I think the Ayuk stuff is going to look really silly.
41:12And I think the second he goes on the commanders, he will be drafted right next to Rashid Shahid, Omar Cooper, those types.
41:19And if he does it soon enough and there's a good training camp clip, he's going to go ahead of Coker and
41:25Khalil Shakir and Jaden Higgins and those guys even around or so above that.
41:30So I'm loading up on Brandon right now. And I think that this thing will get buttoned up soon enough.
41:35And if I'm wrong here, well, Calvin Ridley is probably not going to score points.
41:40Our guy Bernard is probably not going to score very many.
41:43What about Jerry Judy? Ian Harditz is most drafted player.
41:4667% of drafts. I did not name him. I like Jerry Judy.
41:50I like Adonai Mitchell. I like Brandon Ayuk at the end of these drafts.
41:54I just think that Ayuk of them like this, this is just going to look silly.
41:59Well, it is unsurprising that during the timing and taping of the show, Brandon Ayuk posted another video on Instagram.
42:05It was of him holding a football with a commander's logo on it.
42:08And the caption at the bottom reads, quote, the best team in the world.
42:13Just a couple days ago, Brandon Ayuk also got on Instagram and just said, go commanders, go commanders, go commanders.
42:19Yeah. In that same time, his longtime teammate in George Kittle got on part of my take and said, yeah, you're right.
42:25I wouldn't be happy either if a team paid me $130 million.
42:29And he said, good luck with all that to PFT in terms of, hey, we're going to sign Brandon Ayuk and it's all going to work out well.
42:37So, I mean, I don't know what to think, you know, are you going to get nice Excel CV value once Brandon Ayuk hits 100%?
42:44Do I think when Brandon Ayuk has been on the field in the early parts of his career, was he one of
42:51the more underrated route runners across the league? 100%.
42:54I mean, the dude could flat out win versus man-to-man coverage and looked exceptional.
42:58Uh, I also think that it's been weird this off season, man.
43:01I mean, beyond weird, this is not normal behavior.
43:04Uh, and so I don't think you can predict normal behavior once he reaches an NFL team.
43:09And I have no idea. I have no input of what the outcome is going to be other than if he signs
43:16with the commanders, he is their second most talented wide receiver.
43:19And his ADP is going to be up, but I have no clue what that means in terms of staying on the
43:25field, success on the field, and how that's going to look actually on the field.
43:30Yeah. I mean, there's not a wide receiver with nearly the path to upside that compares to him within many, many rounds of where he's currently being priced.
43:38Um, and none of these wide receivers have any floor.
43:41You're telling me that Calvin really has any floor.
43:44Tank Dell has a floor. I mean, he might not even play.
43:47Those are the guys that he's sandwiched between. Uh, where, where, where would you actually draft Brandon?
43:52Now you let's say he signs on the commanders halfway through training camp.
43:56Let's say it's August 10th and he has a couple of weeks to prepare.
44:01He's out there. He's healthy. We have some positive signs.
44:03And like, I mean, Khalil Shakir or Brandon, I like for real.
44:07Yeah, no, I'm, I totally hear you. Like, you know, we are drafting Antonio Williams with the faith that he's going to
44:14be a top two or three target getter on the commanders at the middle of the 14th round right now.
44:20I keep talking about it. It is disgusting to draft like any wide receiver round 12 and beyond.
44:25And there might be three or four that I actually want to draft that entire way.
44:30So if you want to make it in the 12th round, a hundred percent be my guess.
44:35Um, and it sounds like you want to take him even earlier than that when we just talked about Jalen Coker, for
44:41example, but like that's Jane Higgins above that. And then obviously Khalil Shakir is in that area too.
44:47Like, I don't want him to pass the Matthew Golden threshold.
44:50No, he won't. And I think like, I would still rather have Coker than like whatever the hell this Brandon Ayuk experience is.
44:57But like, I mean, Trey Tucker or Brandon Ayuk.
44:59I mean, like, I think that's where like he should be drafted where Diggs is being drafted.
45:04I think that that's like factoring in a lot of the risk here.
45:08The only thing though with Ayuk, it is one team.
45:11It's one team or bust. So do you think that there already is a back channel deal that is done?
45:17Yes. Yes. Okay. I think he has to, he has to force the 49ers to release him, which I think the quickest
45:24way to do that is to show up at the facility.
45:27And then I think he would get released to that.
45:30So I'm waiting for that to happen. This is always a great exercise.
45:34Again, we go through 17 plus games. These players put on the field where they actually finish in fantasy football.
45:40And the next season starts because of an all season because of changes.
45:44And we draft them entirely different than where they finished the previous year.
45:47We have to figure out if that's right or wrong.
45:50Yep. And then running backs will do the same version of it.
45:54And that one's even more fascinating because I think the running backs are still underpriced.
45:58They're priced up and they're still have not moved enough.
46:01If you're looking at half PPR and I've got some evidence for that.
46:05Well, be on the lookout for that running back show here in the next couple of days.
46:10It'll be in your feed this week. All right.
46:13Shout out to Mosho and Weaves behind the scenes and all of you that have watched and hit that subscribe button.
46:19Means a lot to us. Up the villa, everyone.
46:22We'll talk to you in the next episode. See ya.
46:25University of venir Cvario Ha麻UN-Covallarta. Thank you.