These 8 WRs Will Decide Your Fantasy Season

Brian Thomas Jr. is the eighth-round pick (WR36) on Yahoo. Matt Harmon notes that most of BTJ's 2025 season should be thrown out due to injuries, continuing a theme for the 2024 receiver class. However, Harmon is 'totally comfortable drafting him in fantasy this year' because he believes BTJ could be a big hit from the Jaguars room if things align. Harmon acknowledges BTJ's weaknesses: 77% success rate vs. zone coverage (38th percentile) in his rookie season, which fell to 69.8% last year; he struggled with quick routes over the middle and beating zone coverage. But Harmon sees upside if BTJ can be the team's X receiver in a Mike Evans-style role, noting that 'if somebody is going to be a big hit from this room, it's going to be BTJ, but I don't know how many universes that he is that big hit.' The co-host counters that BTJ's role will likely shrink due to the emergence of Parker Washington and Jacoby Myers, and that BTJ ranked third in targets from week 10 on (17% of routes vs. 21% for Myers and 25.5% for Washington). BTJ had 1.35 yards per route run and 36% of targets were 20+ yards downfield in that span.

Carnell Tate is ranked back-to-back with Marvin Harrison Jr. in consensus rankings, followed by Alec Pierce and DK Metcalf. Matt Harmon expresses a preference for taking 'a mystery box' on Carnell Tate above Marvin Harrison Jr., suggesting he'd rather have the upside of Tate than the downside risk of Harrison. However, Harmon notes he's 'a little worried Carnell Tate's going to get target mogged by Wanda Robinson,' which is a topic for another podcast.

Loveland had over 20% red-zone target share last season, significantly outpacing Luther Burden's 8%, and is positioned as one of the top upside plays in the Bears offense. Harmon still wants Colson Loveland the most among second-year receivers, indicating strong conviction in his continued production and role.

Cyrus Allen, Kansas City's fifth-round pick, is the best man-coverage receiver on the Chiefs roster according to Matt Harmon, who states: "get two beers in me and I would tell you that Cyrus Allen, their fifth round pick is easily the best man coverage receiver on this team." This assessment suggests Allen has elite man-coverage skills that could unlock value if the Chiefs deploy him in that role, positioning him as a potential breakout candidate in a crowded receiver room.

Wilson is part of the most exciting section of the WR draft in the fourth round, grouped with Ladd McConkey, Mecca Buka, and other elite prospects. Harmon expresses strong interest in all players in this tier, noting it's frustrating to choose between them.

Love is a round-two to round-three turn pick on Yahoo for the Cardinals. Matt Harmon expresses concern about the Cardinals' offensive situation, noting that the team is projected to win 3.5 games and favored in zero games to open the season. The combination of poor quarterback talent and a historically bad team projection makes Love's early ADP risky.

Herbert's 2024 season was compromised by offensive line collapse; he ran a league-high 95 pass routes without a pass attempt due to sacks, scrambles, and throwaways. This environmental chaos directly suppressed McConkey's production and catchable ball rate (down to 67% from 78%). The improved Chargers line should stabilize Herbert's play and increase downfield accuracy.

Keenan Allen served as a safety-blanket target for Justin Herbert in chaotic situations last year, soaking up binky targets on third-and-short. While no longer at his peak, Allen has plateaued as a useful player rather than declining off a cliff. His role limited McConkey's volume, but Allen's presence doesn't indicate complete decline—just a shift in his usage pattern.

Kenneth Walker's addition to Kansas City's offense is the team's primary offseason move and could improve the passing game math for receivers. Matt Harmon notes that if Kenneth Walker's running game works, it could reduce the burden on the passing attack and potentially open up more favorable coverage situations for receivers like Xavier Worthy. The implication is that a functional run game could help clarify roles and create better downfield passing opportunities.

Harmon calls McConkey the most obvious bounce-back candidate at WR this year. He finished WR35 last year but is now going as WR18 (9th pick of round 4 on Yahoo). The Chargers' offensive line collapse and Keenan Allen's safety-blanket role limited McConkey's volume; with Herbert's improved situation and McConkey's elite route-running (87th percentile in success vs. man, zone, and press), he's positioned for significant upside.

McConkey's strength is in big breaking routes in the intermediate area, which aligns perfectly with the Chargers' heavy personnel package scheme. He wins against both man and zone coverage and remains a strong vertical slot player. The new offensive environment should feature more intermediate targets and quick hitters, reducing the downfield chaos that plagued him last year.

McConkey's contested catch rate dropped from 57% as a rookie to 3-of-14 (21%) last year, a significant decline. However, the Chargers' offensive environment was compromised: Justin Herbert ran a league-high 95 pass routes without a pass attempt due to sacks, scrambles, and throwaways. After Joe Alt's injury, McConkey averaged only 2.7 catches for 38 yards per game. The new scheme should reduce contested-catch situations and increase quick-hitter targets.

McConkey ran a league-high 95 pass routes without a pass attempt due to sacks, scrambles, and throwaways after Joe Alt's injury, averaging 2.7 catches for 38 yards per game in a collapsed environment. Matt Harmon believes the offense will work out significantly better with improved quarterback play and offensive line health, positioning McConkey as a feature player Mike McDaniel will move around to get advantageous looks and space for; his in-breaking routes and ability to settle in zone coverage are described as 'diabolical,' though he has Tyler Lockett-like limitations after the catch.

McConkey's injury risk mirrors Tyler Lockett's durability concerns; he scrapes himself up off the field on intermediate in-breaking routes and may see snap count management with Trey Harris rotating in for run-blocking work to preserve his body. This could limit his target ceiling compared to peers like Emeka Buka, who could see a 140-target season versus McConkey's lower projection.

McConkey's early-down target share was identical to his rookie season, but his third-down target share dropped to 18.4%, down 7% from his rookie year, due to Keenan Allen's 35% third-down target share. The Chargers run heavy personnel (29th in three-wide receiver sets) and brought in a fullback, which creates a pro-con dynamic: easier targets and higher yards-per-route in play-action, but fewer routes if Trey Harris gets run-blocking snaps.

Burden is mentioned as a comparison point in the fourth-round WR tier. Harmon prefers Ladd McConkey over Burden in this cluster, suggesting McConkey offers better value or upside.

Burden is much better with the ball in his hands than Roma Dunze and will get easy-button touches and creative touch stuff that Dunze won't receive. However, this advantage is offset by the fact that Ben Johnson's offense is built around making explosive plays on big-boy routes, which is where Dunze excels.

Luther Burden will not maintain his rookie role; he won't be used the same way this season. In the red zone, when Colson Loveland and Roma Dunze had over 20% target share, Burden was at only 8%, and 30% of his targets were screens. He's unlikely to get the same easy-button touches and creative touch stuff that made him productive as a rookie, especially as Caleb Williams improves and the offense normalizes. His upside is limited compared to Dunze and Loveland in the red zone.

Avoided the PUP list in training camp, marking the most positive injury update in months; rehab has progressed well since second surgery to remove scar tissue. Even if he returns at 85% of pre-injury form, that historical average matches third-round WRs like T. Higgins and A.J. Flowers. At 23 years old with no WR competition (Darius Slayton also not practicing), he has elite athlete upside.

Matt Harmon ranks him next to DeVante Smith and A.J. Brown in the two-three turn (WR2-3 tier), despite going in round four on Yahoo. Harmon calls him the most mispriced player in fantasy right now. Even at 80-90% of himself post-injury, he remains one of the best WRs in the NFL; the Giants finished 31st in PPG when he was healthy last year and should improve, creating more volume opportunity.

Nabers is the clear WR1 for the Giants with no competition; Darius Slayton is not practicing. Last year in his 3.5-game sample with Russell Wilson, he ran go routes on 25% of his routes (Wilson's system). Harmon notes he was in space on only 33% of his catches in year two (down from 48% as a rookie), suggesting room for more creative usage in Matt Nagy's offense, which can create horizontal space for elite players.

Harmon's reception perception charting shows Nabers in an elite tier: he's the only player in the RP era (2014-current) besides A.J. Brown, DeVontae Adams, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson (3x), and Odell Beckham (3x) to clear the 98th percentile in success rate vs. press coverage while taking fewer than 30% of snaps in the slot. Harmon compares his talent level to Jamar Chase, noting he's close across the board in route-running ability.

Marvin Harrison Jr. finished last season as WR40 in points per game and is going as WR31 (sixth pick of seventh round on Yahoo), suggesting the market is overvaluing him. Matt Harmon admits he is a 'full blown Marvin Harrison Jr. apologist' while acknowledging that Harrison has been a disappointment relative to expectations as the best prospect Harmon has evaluated since Jamar Chase. His relationship with Kyler Murray was problematic, and the offense under Drew Petzing was not well-suited to his skill set.

Harrison is not as bad as painted; he's a strong separator in particular areas and gets open consistently, contrary to narrative. His rookie year (when healthier) shows Calvin Ridley comparables in his top comps due to his nuanced route-running ability. He will be better deployed in the new offense away from Kyler Murray and Drew Petzing, and his drops (including a ridiculous week-four catch against Seattle) should improve. Harmon expects Harrison to catch the ball cleaner and be a really nice football player.

Harrison's drop rate was extremely high last season, with some of the most hilariously bad drops of the entire football season, including a ridiculous week-four catch against the Seahawks. He has a career 1% screen rate and has broken only four tackles in his career, limiting his fantasy upside despite his real-life receiver talent. He will be a better real-life receiver than a fantasy player, especially with Trey McBride (a complete alien working over the middle) and now Jeremiah Love in the offense.

Harrison's role is very traditional static X receiver, which is not the player he is supposed to be. He will be a better real-life receiver than a fantasy player because Trey McBride is a complete alien working over the middle and should get the ball, and now Jeremiah Love is in the offense. The Cardinals are projected to win only 3.5 games, making Harrison one of the highest-ranked fantasy players in ADP for a team with such poor win projections.

Harrison is a seventh-round pick on Yahoo despite being back-to-back in consensus rankings with Roma Dunze. Matt Harmon states he cannot recommend Harrison even after watching him in isolation and finding him a little bit better than expected. Harmon is pot-committed to Harrison but advises against drafting him, noting that the most likely outcome is that he won't produce, and he doesn't want to recommend him only to have drafters be upset when he doesn't perform. Harmon would rather take a mystery box on Carnell Tate above Harrison.

Michael Wilson is an eighth-round pick on Yahoo. Matt Harmon describes him as 'a real player' and notes that he 'mogged' Marvin Harrison Jr. at the end of the season in terms of production and overall final taste in the mouth. Harmon says Wilson's end-of-season performance was 'the most impressive a Cardinals wide receiver has looked over the last two years.' Harmon is frustrated that the Cardinals underutilized Wilson at the Z position while Harrison played X, when Wilson's comps (T Higgins, X receivers) suggest he should be used more interchangeably. Under new offensive coordinator LaFleur, Harmon expects Wilson to benefit from schematic improvements and more motion at the snap.

Parker Washington is emerging as a key receiver in the Jaguars offense. The co-host notes that Washington ranked second in targets from week 10 on with 25.5% of routes, ahead of Jacoby Myers (21%) and Brian Thomas Jr. (17%). The co-host believes 'Parker Washington clears Jacoby Myers' and that Washington's emergence, combined with the addition of tight end Luke Musgrave in round two, will allow the Jaguars to play heavier personnel sets. The co-host suggests that Washington could be the beneficiary if the Jaguars lean more into two-receiver sets, potentially keeping Jacoby Myers off the field in certain scenarios.

Johnston is expected to handle downfield routes in the Chargers' new scheme, reducing McConkey's need to run those routes. This role separation allows McConkey to focus on intermediate breaking routes and quick hitters where he excels, improving his efficiency and reducing contested-catch situations.

Rice is cited as an example of how the Kansas City Chiefs create horizontal space and gimmick roles for elite receivers. Harmon uses Rice's usage pattern as a comparison point for how Malik Nabers could be utilized in the Giants' Matt Nagy offense.

Rasheed Rice's fantasy value is at risk despite his historically low average depth of target (4.69 ADOT over the last three seasons, ranking in the bottom tier among 117+ receivers with 200+ routes). Matt Harmon expresses concern that if Kansas City can credibly run the ball this year—they were the worst run game over the last two years by explosive plays—the Chiefs may reduce their reliance on "scammy targets" to Rice. The core problem is that Rice and Xavier Worthy occupy the same offensive space without a clear number-one receiver like George Pickens to anchor the room, and with Travis Kelce also in the mix, there's insufficient role clarity to support all three players. Harmon states: "I am shit out of Rasheed Rice this year."

Mike Evans' addition to the 49ers offense will allow Ricky Pearsall to operate more in big breaking routes and receive significantly more easy scoring opportunities (layups) than he had last year, essentially none. Kyle Shanahan's tendency to move Pearsall around with full-speed motions, fly motions, and stack releases will create separation opportunities.

Pearsall is a near lock to average more than five targets per game this season, up from his rookie year average. His involvement metrics and dot placement are closest to Rashid Shaheed, Jordan Addison, and Jameson Williams, and he possesses more lateral ability than some of those comparables.

Pearsall broke zero tackles in his rookie season according to PFF and went down on first contact on 85% of charted plays, placing him in a rare group of receivers (Marvin Harrison Jr., Aidy Mitchell, Josh Palmer, DJ Chark, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Van Jefferson, Henry Ruggs) with zero broken tackles in a season. This is a glaring weakness despite his elite route-running ability.

Kyle Shanahan moves Ricky Pearsall around the formation with full-speed motions, fly motions, stacks, and free releases; Pearsall sustains separation and can create it at multiple levels, positioning him as a beneficiary of Shanahan's play-calling style that maximizes this type of receiver skill set.

Matt Harmon ranks Ricky Pearsall a tier above peers in his ADP range (Michael Wilson, Michael Pittman, Quentin Johnson, Makai Lemon, Jacoby Myers, Jordan Addison, Wondale Robinson) because his pathway to WR1 scoring is clearer; his ultimate upside is playing every snap, and with George Kittle's Achilles injury status uncertain and Mike Evans' hamstring durability a concern, Pearsall has the best situation possible in Kyle Shanahan's offense where he gets full-speed motions, fly motions, stacks, and free releases that allow him to sustain and create separation at multiple levels.

Despite 99 career targets and under 1,000 yards through two seasons, Matt Harmon is optimistic that when the 49ers offense comes together, Ricky Pearsall will be a massive beneficiary because Kyle Shanahan is the exact type of play-caller to maximize this receiver's skill set; Harmon rejects the narrative that past injuries will sustain themselves.

Matt Harmon would take Ricky Pearsall over Michael Pittman, Jacoby Myers, Wondale Robinson, and Quentin Johnson in best ball formats, viewing him as a higher-upside target than the 'boring picks' that prioritize floor in that ADP range.

Travis Kelce's offensive role in Kansas City is uncertain and may be a limiting factor for other pass-catchers. Matt Harmon notes that Kelce occupies the same offensive area as Rasheed Rice and Xavier Worthy, creating a three-way role conflict. Harmon speculates that if Kelce is not heavily involved in the offense—a significant conditional—then Rice could scale back and Worthy could emerge as a boom-bust flex option. However, this scenario requires Kelce's role to diminish, which is presented as a speculative hedge rather than a likely outcome.

Harris is mentioned as a potential rotational option in the Chargers' personnel groupings. Matt Harmon notes that the team might occasionally rotate Harris in for certain packages, though this is likely overthinking the depth chart.

McBride is a second-round pick on Yahoo despite the Cardinals being projected to win 3.5 games and favored in zero games to open the season. Matt Harmon expresses concern that the quarterback talent is so much lower than McBride's skill competition, and he doesn't see enough 'gimme stuff' to overcome the fact that McBride has been the wider super 40 this last season or two. Harmon is nervous about the round-two ADP and would not recommend drafting him there.

Matt Harmon was lower than consensus on Worthy as a prospect and coming out of his rookie year; his second season was hampered by injury (hit by a teammate listed as 85 pounds heavier), but on-field results were poor. Harmon notes Worthy is not useful against press man coverage (a problem since the Chiefs' best receiver is only good against zone coverage), struggles to separate, and goes down on first contact. Harmon acknowledges Worthy wins on quick out routes against man coverage but emphasizes the deep game hasn't come together, largely due to size constraints.

Worthy's second season was disrupted by injury early on; he was hit by a teammate listed as 85 pounds heavier (Harmon suggests the actual weight difference may be even greater). Additionally, Worthy suffered a shoulder injury that was serious enough that the Chiefs reduced his screen rate to nearly zero out of concern that a tackle on that shoulder could sideline him for an extended period.

Matt Harmon notes Worthy was drafted to be a downfield receiver but has become a 9-yard-and-underneath option; he's on the line of scrimmage 71% of snaps (up from 43% to 53% year-over-year), which Harmon says he shouldn't be doing at 165 pounds. Harmon emphasizes Worthy's inability to separate against press man coverage and struggles on breaking routes due to size limitations; he caught only 4 of 16 deep targets (20+ yards) this past season and 7 of 21 the year before, plus just 4 of 13 intermediate targets in his rookie year.

Xavier Worthy is going in the 11th round on Yahoo; Matt Harmon was lower than consensus on Worthy as a prospect, setting up a discussion about what Worthy is and what he can be.

Worthy faces significant role uncertainty in Kansas City's crowded receiver room. With Rasheed Rice, Travis Kelce, and Taequann Thornton all competing for targets, Worthy's limited skill set and lack of proven production at the NFL level create a boom-bust flex profile at best. Matt Harmon notes that Worthy would need to run more crossing routes and face off-coverage to win downfield, but the Chiefs would need to make that a priority—which is speculative. Worthy's second-play run route in 2024 before Rice's injury suggests potential direction, but Harmon emphasizes you have to "really speculate here to get excited about Xavier Worthy." He hasn't shown he's good enough to belong in the top-tier receiver tier.

Flowers is a first-round receiver prospect and part of the year-three WR class being discussed. While a good player, Harmon notes Flowers is at a different tier than Malik Nabers, who was a tier-one prospect in his class.