5 Players with Unlimited Ceilings Thanks To Playcalling
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
37 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 28, 2026
Published
Tue, July 28, 2026
9
Player insights
4
Players mentioned
Topics
Brock BowersD'Andre SwiftJonathan TaylorTrey McBride
Player analysis
Player insights
Brock Bowers
PositiveUsage0:28
Ryan Paganetti, who worked with Pete Carroll in Las Vegas last season, revealed that the Raiders had a specific goal to set a single-season record for catches and targets for Bowers before his week one knee injury. The coaching staff identified Bowers as the clear difference-maker on a roster with a consensus 32nd-ranked receiver group, and Paganetti notes that Clint Kubiak, the new offensive coordinator, would logically funnel an "insanely high percentage" of the offense through Bowers again given the lack of viable receiving talent. Paganetti suggests Kubiak might employ a 12-personnel base with Bowers as the X receiver and Michael Mayer as the Y tight end, similar to how Trey McBride ran over 100 more routes than any other tight end in the NFL last year.
Insight pagePositiveUsage0:28
Raiders and Pete Carroll set a goal last season to break the single-season record for catches and targets for Bowers before his week one knee injury. The coaching staff viewed him as the clear difference-maker on a roster with a consensus 32nd-ranked receiver group, considering making him their primary X receiver in 12-personnel with Michael Mayer as the Y tight end. Clint Kubiak is likely to funnel an insanely high percentage of the offense through Bowers again this season given the lack of viable alternatives at receiver.
Insight pageNegativeInjury5:22
Bowers suffered a significant knee injury in week one, playing only 108 yards in approximately two and a half quarters. He was significantly hampered throughout the season, unable to practice or even do walkthroughs on some days, and the team shut him down for a period. Even when he returned with three touchdowns in one game, he continued managing the injury, with considerations around snap management and whether he was drawing additional attention.
Insight pageNegativeInjury5:22
Bowers suffered a significant knee injury in week one that severely hampered his 2024 season. He was unable to practice on some days and couldn't even participate in walkthroughs; the team eventually shut him down for a period. Though he returned and had a game with three touchdowns, he continued managing the injury throughout the season, with considerations around snap management and whether he was drawing additional attention due to his limited availability.
Insight pageD'Andre Swift
PositiveRole10:00
Deandre Swift is in the fifth round and benefits from Ben Johnson's elite run-game design, which ranks second on the list of play callers with the highest 10+ yard design run rates. Johnson is exceptional at both generating explosive plays and avoiding negative runs, making him one of the most methodical and efficient run game designers in the league.
Insight pagePositiveValue17:24
Deandre Swift is in the fifth round and plays under Ben Johnson's play-calling with the Bears, which ranks second in 10-plus yard design run rates. Johnson's scheme is noted for both generating explosive plays and avoiding negative runs, providing Swift with a stable, efficient run-game environment.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
PositiveRole11:03
Jonathan Taylor is the eighth overall pick on Yahoo and benefits from Shane Steichen's play-calling, which ranks among the top designers of the run game with strong 10+ yard design run rates. Steichen's proven track record with run game design supports Taylor's draft positioning.
Insight pagePositiveValue16:48
Jonathan Taylor is the eighth overall pick on Yahoo and benefits from Shane Steichen's play-calling, which ranks in the top tier for 10-plus yard design run rates. Steichen's offensive scheme is designed to generate explosive plays in the run game, positioning Taylor as a high-value target in early rounds.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveUsage4:57
Trey McBride ran over 100 more routes than any other tight end in the NFL last year, demonstrating an extremely high usage rate. This level of route volume is comparable to the unsustainable target share approach that worked for JSN, suggesting McBride is a focal point of his offense's design.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00The entire goal of the offseason is to identify the stats that will help you win your fantasy league.
0:05It's really that simple, but I'm sure when you watch all these videos, you read all these analysts, the same numbers are repeated every single week.
0:12So today's mission to present you with at least five underlying metrics, five completely new stats that will give you an edge in your drafts.
0:19And the perfect man for this challenge is Ryan Paganetti.
0:22First, Ryan, welcome to the show. And second, you know, tell the people what you've been up to for the last decade
0:27that makes you perfectly suited for this challenge. Well, I really appreciate you guys having me.
0:32You know, I started in the NFL in 2015 with the Eagles and I've sort of done a bunch of different analytics and coaching type roles there.
0:39I was I was there for six years with Coach Peterson and you know, we managed to have a lot of success
0:45there in terms of, you know, we won the Super Bowl.
0:48We were kind of ahead of the game a little bit on some of the things like fourth downs and two point conversion.
0:54And QB sneaks and whatnot. And then I spent three years with the Jaguars as director of football analytics.
0:59And, you know, I was kind of diving a little bit more into the personnel side in addition to the coaching side there.
1:05And really, this last year I was with, you know, Pete Carroll, who's I absolutely love and I always will love and
1:11I hope to see him in the he might he deserves to be in two Hall of Fames, in my opinion, like just just an awesome guy.
1:19He was kind of dealt some, you know, difficult circumstances with the team that wasn't maybe necessarily ready to go last year.
1:25But you mentioned that you worked with Pete Carroll in the Raiders last year.
1:28You recently posted that quote. We had a goal last season in Las Vegas of single season record for catches and targets
1:34for Brock Bowers before the week one injury. So Ryan, how are you guys going to achieve that?
1:39And maybe most importantly, do you think that's going to be possible?
1:42And is another goal that Clint Kubiak might have for Brock Bowers this season?
1:46I just, you know, just from my familiarity with that roster, like we were basically looking at that last year and the
1:52talent that we had on hand, you know, I know a bunch of different, you know, where you really stack your team
1:58up in talent is always a little bit controversial.
2:00And, you know, it's, it's very good from like a media perspective to do ranks and whatnot.
2:05But there was a consensus that the receiver group for the Raiders entering last season was in some cases 32nd or quite close to 32nd.
2:12And there was a little bit of like a situation where Jacoby Myers wanted to get traded and he was kind of our top guy.
2:18And there was like some instability there. And, you know, Brock Bowers like had, I think he was like graduating from Georgia or something like that.
2:26He showed up at some point OTAs and the coaches were just kind of looking around and like, this is, this is, there are some things going on.
2:33And he had just come off his first season that I believe he set like the NFL record for catches for a tight end or something.
2:40And we're just kind of looking around, like given the roster distribution saying like, this makes way too much sense that we're,
2:46we're not doing a good job coaching if we're not figuring out how to get them the ball as much as possible.
2:52So that was sort of like the attitude. And, you know, I printed out a piece of paper for like Pete and chip.
2:58And I just, I think it was either early in training camp or in OTAs just because I, and it was essentially like, what are the actual records?
3:06And I'm like, we're going to just keep a tally of this every week as like an aiming point.
3:11And the attitude from them was like, Oh, let's, let's smash those records.
3:14Like just given where we were as a team and like what, from a macro perspective, where we thought like our kind of difference maker player was.
3:22And then week one, he had a pretty significant knee injury.
3:25I think he had 108 yards, like say two and a half quarters in the game, whatever.
3:29Don't quote me on that exact number, but he gets that injury and he was significantly hampered.
3:34And it was like an ongoing narrative. He wasn't practicing.
3:36He's like, there's can't even do walkthrough some days.
3:39They ended up shutting him down for a period.
3:41He comes back and gets like three touchdowns in a game.
3:44And, um, but then he's, you know, he gets, he's still kind of managing it.
3:48And so there was, there was considerations like managing his snaps.
3:51Like, was he getting, was he drawing additional attention?
3:54And, um, it really, the, the combination of the injuries and, um, you know, the, some other players on the offense, clearly
4:00not performing really where you would hope. And it just was sort of snowballed where, you know, then we even had a play color change during the season.
4:07And like, so all those different variables made it a little bit complex, but if I was Clint Kubiak and I had,
4:13and I also just funneled like an insanely high percentage of my offense through one player, if I was thinking I might
4:19do that again, like doing that for Brock Bowers makes all the sense in the world.
4:23Just given nobody can actually, with a serious face can like show up to their practice, look at the past catcher unit
4:29and not say, you actually might think he's the starting X, Y receiver.
4:33Like we were going to do that at different points where we're like, why don't we just make them our X and
4:39we just 12 will be our base offense. And Michael Mayer will be our Y tight end.
4:43You know, I, I was, I was keep certainly keeping an eye on like how unsustainable the JSN target share was last
4:49year, but then he just kept doing it and he kept succeeding.
4:52It's so like, I, if I was Clint, I'd be like, I'm just going to try that again.
4:57Like, why not? I think that Trey McBride ran what over a hundred more routes than any other tight end in the NFL last year.
5:04So Hey, I know that Brock Bowers is one of our favorite picks on the board this year.
5:09He's going to go crazy. Just real quick. We don't spend a lot of time on this.
5:13Is there anything about the Raiders analysis from Ashton Gentty?
5:16Obviously the situation was brutal offensive line, just him by himself comparing him to other backs across the league.
5:21Was there any consensus in the building after watching his rookie season?
5:24I, um, well, we put it this way. Like, uh, as an, as an analytics person, there, there's like a certain belief
5:30system of like, I'm a big offensive line. First guy.
5:33I was there in Philadelphia where, you know, at times we were basically putting practice squad backs behind like a great offensive line and having production.
5:40And, um, it was clear that the offensive line really needed massive improvement there.
5:44And almost certainly Gentty will perform better this year.
5:46They have some things they got to sort out with some of the offensive line positions still, you know, they've got basically
5:52two guys that are like confirmed starters. And then the other ones are a little bit up in the air.
5:58You know, Gentty has a unique play style where he's definitely a little bit more of a try to run you over
6:03guy rather than like the ultra dynamic outrun you type player.
6:06And it's definitely an interesting kind of contrast with some guys like Jameer Gibbs, where you're sort of like sweating that if
6:12he hits a crease, he's going to go like 75.
6:15And like, that's not to say that Gentty can't, but he might get 75 and break four tackles on the way.
6:21Gent and, and, and, uh, you know, Gibbs or Saquon might go untouched at times.
6:25I think it'll be interesting. Um, there's definitely a lot, there was a lot of eyeballs on that decision of making that pick last year.
6:32Um, you know, that's ultimately like, that's the route that the team decided to go with.
6:36And it, it didn't result in the team improving run game wise last year.
6:40And I think it seems like that was an emphasis for this year that whatever, whatever other like components they added to
6:46the team, they really need to get the run game on track.
6:49I got to ask, uh, was this more of like, like analytics department?
6:52Was there something different? Because I know a lot of people that watch fantasy football shows, like their dream job would be
6:58like in the analytics department of these NFL teams.
7:01Can you just give us some backstory and just exactly how analytics departments work behind the scenes for these NFL teams?
7:06Yeah. I I'd say, you know, a lot in a lot of cases there's, it used to be like sort of when
7:12I started almost like one or two man shops and things have really expanded where now teams aren't shrinking their analytics departments.
7:18They're just getting bigger. And, you know, I, I bring up baseball, for example, where, you know, some people quote some of
7:24these top teams of having, you know, essentially 40 quantitative people now in like, in like the direction of a football, like
7:30to some teams are like approaching tennis and it's probably going to continue to go up, especially in this world of like the player tracking data and everything.
7:38But, um, whether it's like draft modeling, like free agency valuations, trades, uh, game planning, league wide studies, like all sorts of cap implications.
7:44Um, I think you're seeing more and more of the data really being utilized in all those different worlds.
7:49And the thing I think that the Eagles did an amazing job of is that, uh, you know, the, I'd seen like
7:55the message from Jeffrey Lurie and Howie Roseman was like, basically every important decision was going to be cross-checked with analytics.
8:01And if, and if there were some data that said, don't do this, like they were going to pause and be like,
8:07you know, let's look into this, let's think about this.
8:09And, um, it's really to me, like if, if you say if an organization made 10,000 decisions in 2015, there was a
8:15lot of places that maybe used some kind of data for like 10 of them.
8:19And now, now you have teams that are basically using some kind of data for nearly every decision.
8:24Um, so it's, it's, it's, it's a really, uh, it's an interesting world where like, just like the coaches are trying to
8:30beat the other coaches and the scouts are trying to, you know, do a better job evaluating players.
8:35Like the analytics people I think are trying to have better information for their own staffs too.
8:39You mentioned game planning, uh, and trying to understand these play colors and coaches.
8:43We love doing that too, Ryan. Uh, because in the end, you know, you don't get fancy points unless people actually score
8:49points on the field and yards on the field every Thursday, Sunday and Monday on top of it.
8:54So let's dive into some of the information you've been sharing, uh, on Twitter.
8:58That is at Ryan Paganetti. Uh, everything we talk about today comes from that.
9:02And the first chart we're going to bring up here, the play callers with 10 plus yard design run rates, uh, throughout their entire career.
9:08So typically this is viewed Ryan from our lens through individual running backs, individual ball carriers, but I love looking at it, how you have done it here.
9:16With the, you know, offensive designers with the play callers.
9:19So I'm not going to shout out anything. I just want to present this to you since you presented it to us
9:24and ask what stood out to you when you put these numbers together.
9:28A lot of the top names are consistently guys that are, you know, fairly well-regarded in terms of run game designs.
9:34And one thing I think that stands out too, is like, there's a little bit of a, of a consideration that some
9:40of the top performers also had a like running type quarterback because that's absolutely has a huge boost in the run game,
9:46whether they can read a defender, whether it's Kyler Murray or, you know, Lamar Jackson with Todd Munkin.
9:50But you see some of these guys in particular that, you know, have succeeded even without what would be considered like a true running quarterback.
9:57For example, like Ben Johnson with Jared Goff and, and what, you know, Caleb can, can run a little bit, but that's
10:03not going to be like a main thing that they do as much as other teams.
10:07And then Mike McDaniel with, you know, two, it certainly wasn't really a heavy run guy there, but you see some of
10:13the exceptional, like big play upside of some of these guys, how much of it was an offensive line situation in their past?
10:19Was there something with running back talent and all that?
10:22But I think there's at least some level of concern if like guys over some big samples are showing up relatively low on some of these rankings.
10:29I do want to call attention to a couple of these names specifically.
10:33So at the top of the list, it's Todd Munkin at a 14.3% rate.
10:37We know that Quinn, John Johnkins is in the middle of the fifth round.
10:40Now, no mobile quarterback in Lamar Jackson attached to him, but point still stands.
10:44As you mentioned, Ben Johnson with the bears, Deandre Swift also in the fifth round.
10:48Then you get to Mike McDaniel third on this list.
10:51Now with the chargers, we know Martin Hampton is at that one, two turn drew pets in the one-on-one attached to Jameer
10:57Gibbs, which is notable because we know what Jameer Gibbs done that rushing attack did with Ben Johnson, who's second on the list.
11:03So still having a top four guy among this as calling plays in the Zion the run game helps Shane Steichen, obviously
11:09Jonathan Taylor, the eighth overall pick on Yahoo right now.
11:12Ryan, I also want to take you to one part being the explosive plays that we just outlined, but also avoiding negative
11:18runs, avoiding dead runs is a major part of this too.
11:21You also posted this chart. Uh, what's it out to me here is how Mike McDaniel on the previous was ranked third on explosive runs rate.
11:28And then now rank bottom three in terms of number of dead runs.
11:31Now from the outside, I can guess that that is maybe an offensive line stat also where these runs kind of originate for him at the same time.
11:39Um, there's a whole bunch of things I could dive into here when conversely, you know, Ben Johnson ranks at the top of, of nearly both.
11:46Uh, what stands out to you again, Nick Kaley, the Texans are 22nd out of 26 teams here.
11:51So it's almost, would you say combining these two and maybe looking at the overlap, uh, is maybe the best way to
11:56approach how the run structure is going to feature for these teams this year?
12:00To me, part of the story that it's telling is that Ben Johnson's really good at coaching football because he's avoiding negatives
12:06and he's just methodically getting big chunks as well.
12:09And so like, it's interesting how some of these lists are a little bit different.
12:13I think the bills are kind of interesting that they're actually a little bit higher here in terms of popping off some big runs.
12:19Um, you know, Kellen Moore is up there a little bit higher, which I think is interesting too, because they, they had
12:25a little bit of a struggling run game last year, but you know, there's some reasons to think that could improve, you
12:31know, I think, uh, Mike McDaniels have that. I think it has a lot to do with the, the scheme being very high risk, high reward.
12:38Like there's sometimes there's these, yeah, like outside runs, tosses, reverses.
12:41Um, he he'll come up with stuff every, every game or two that no one's ever run before.
12:46And sometimes those things are awesome and it's a gash.
12:48And then sometimes like maybe part of the reason no one's run it before is because like, it's a little bit of a funky deal.
12:55And then like, there's like a two yard loss in there.
12:58But you know, I think, uh, it's, it's an interesting, like if you're just thinking stability and like, if you're like, I
13:04want, I want a guy that I feel pretty comfortable on a, you know, weekend, a week out basis is going to come up with a run game.
13:12That's probably going to be pretty efficient. And you know, you're, I think you have to at least think Ben Johnson's kind
13:18of up there and, you know, Matt Lafleur up there too, I think was a little bit interesting too, especially because they're like rivals or whatever.
13:25Hayden, the thing that stood up to me is Devon H and going from Mike McDaniels play calling, which is again, third
13:30in design run rate that leads to an explosive to now Bobby Sloick, who obviously was with the Texans and now gets
13:36a second time calling plays here with the dolphins to 19th.
13:39And then also Sloick's offense is ranked 25th in terms of a negative rush rate.
13:43I mean, it makes me nervous, but I think Sloick would be smart to just kind of study what Mike McDaniel was doing.
13:50And also I think that dolphins offensive line has really come along, especially when you get Caden Proctor in there when the
13:56slow offensive lines were terrible with, with the Texans, but I never saw anything like super original out of Bobby Sloick.
14:01And that does make me a little bit nervous, but Devon H is like one of these superstar backs that like, it's kind of on you.
14:08If you can't make that work behind that offensive line at this point, like you're not going to be in the play calling chair for very long.
14:15From your experience, have you ever been a part of an organization where, uh, such a prophetic, that's the right term to
14:21use, uh, in terms of just a great genius moves on.
14:24And then he's kind of replaced with someone who, uh, maybe doesn't run the exact same style, but can kind of pick
14:30up on some of the, uh, outlines of what the departed play caller left in his place.
14:35If you're, if you're a coach in the NFL, like the shelf life is, is, is short and the turnover is so high.
14:41You're, you're usually better off following up somebody who was like not well-regarded.
14:45Yeah. Like I, I feel bad for the, the, the O-line coach in Philadelphia this year.
14:49He's like stepping in for like a hall of fame O-line coach.
14:52And like, I don't, I, I hope he does a great job and he's got some players to work with and everything,
14:58but just like the standard that's set at times is tricky.
15:01And like, so you definitely see coaches like studying what was successful with the previous coach, because like, you don't necessarily just want to abandon everything.
15:08Like it would be kind of foolish if the dolphins just like let every single run design they had on fire last
15:14year, when they have, they were doing some things that were really cool in the run game.
15:19And at times they were getting huge plays. And if somebody like is such an outperformer, like I can assure you most
15:24offensive coaches around the league have had some, somebody on their staff is studying what Sean McVay and Ben Johnson has have
15:30done these like last couple of years. Um, because it's, it's almost like malpractice not to at least take a look at it.
15:37Before we move on from the running backs, I had a question about just what NFL teams are doing to kind of grade running backs.
15:43So we have like next gen stats, the public model with it.
15:47They're doing their best to kind of account for the boxes, how good the offensive line is.
15:51I see that some of these charts using NFL faster.
15:54That's what I use. I have my own models, rush yards over expected success rate.
15:58Is there, is there something that teams have access to that is just way outclassed what the public does?
16:03And then follow up to that, do teams, uh, look at what's what some people are posting onto Twitter and ESPN and stuff?
16:09Uh, is there any kind of like making sure that the media doesn't have some idea that maybe we haven't thought of before?
16:15Well, I always, I was always refreshing Twitter. If I would find something that was good or useful, I would just like
16:21print it out and give it to the head coach.
16:24I didn't care. Like, like there's, why would you not use the information?
16:28And now that there's so much data out there and there's a lot of like interesting analysis being done, you know, on
16:33social media, a lot of times these coaches actually get asked in their weekly press conferences, just based off something that came
16:39up like, Hey, you're 32nd in the league in middle of the field throws.
16:43And it's comes from somebody just like pulled something together.
16:46Um, the, uh, in terms of the run game, like there's you, when you're on the team side, like you have access
16:52to this expected rush yards that on like a play by play level.
16:55And it's, it's honestly, I'm not entirely sure if you can get access to that in the public sphere of like the
17:01one that's built entirely off of the tracking data.
17:04And I think you can get like summary stats of it, but on the team side, like you could legitimately say like,
17:10Oh, this play was supposed to get 2.3 yards and they running back up like 3.9.
17:14The play by play level information on that. I'm not entirely sure how much of that is available in the public.
17:20I think it's a little bit limited. And, um, but like, it's the same thing with like past game, like the expected completion rates and whatnot.
17:27Like it's, it's really useful to kind of evaluate, um, with a little bit more precision and say like, okay, like great.
17:32That ball was completed, but maybe you shouldn't have thrown that.
17:35You tell your quarterbacks because it was like a 42% chance of completion rate.
17:39And there was another opportunity and stuff like that.
17:42So NFL teams, it's all tracking data. Now it's like, look for a lot of the public information, it's like the tenant.
17:48Okay. How many people were in the box? And then you can build some type of model, but the team stuff is
17:53like, all it's just like, we have every single helmet tracked at this point.
17:57And all of the models are based off of that.
18:00We don't need the stuff that the public usually has access to.
18:03I would say it's, it's still a blend in like, dude, that's where you get the differentiation between the teams that are
18:09like taking analytics seriously versus not is the ones that are kind of leaning into that a little bit more, but there's
18:15still the public sources are, are leaned on like PFF had a relationship or still has a relationship with every team.
18:21It's the same thing with college, like where you get, you know, a lot of these objective metrics, like what's the personnel
18:27in the game, what's run concepts and things like that.
18:29Like you in a perfect world, you do as much of that as possible with the player tracking, but there also is
18:35a lot of work that goes into that. And so there's still some things like subjectively that are a little bit better.
18:41So there's a world though, where it really moves 95% plus towards just like everyone using player tracking data.
18:46I wish they just made it all public. It would be so much more fun to do some of this stuff.
18:52A hundred percent. Okay. Uh, we can't have a conversation about play callers without bringing up Ben Johnson's name again.
18:57Uh, Ryan, you posted that no NFL play caller this century has treated second and short, like a free shot more aggressively
19:03than Ben Johnson among 68 play callers with 70 plus games since 1999.
19:07Ben Johnson ranks first and second one pass rate first and second and two pass rate first and second and three pass rate basically.
19:13Uh, one, when was this first on your radar?
19:16How did it get on your radar? And second, uh, why is he so head and shoulders above everyone else?
19:21And like, why is this so important to his game to game success?
19:25Yeah. So I think his, when he first started really calling plays in 2022, um, I had on like a week to week basis.
19:31I'm like really on top of all these league wide metrics.
19:34Like as the coaches are worried, I'm doing as much work as I can on like a Monday and Tuesday to help
19:40the team with the next game plan and self scouting and stuff.
19:43And then I would try to spend the rest of the week trying to get ahead.
19:47Like, all right, what's something that's going on? That's a little bit unique.
19:51And I remember back then just seeing like, okay, he was, there's this guy, Ben Johnson with Detroit.
19:56Like the expectations were pretty low. They were doing all these like tight end shifts and motions.
20:00And it was like standing out some of my metrics.
20:03And I'm like, they were almost immediately like really good.
20:06And, um, you know, it was a little bit unclear at times.
20:09Like, is it just the personnel is really good?
20:11Like, is, are they just stacked on the offensive line?
20:14But then he did it again the next year and then he did it again the next year.
20:19And, you know, of course, you know, as their team was succeeding, they started playing in these, these islands night games and they're running laterals and trick plays.
20:27It's like, it's really, really impressive what he was doing.
20:29Um, I thought when he was entering kind of like after three years as the play caller, I thought it was potentially the greatest head coach opportunity.
20:36Like if I was, I, there's half those teams in the league, I would have potentially gotten rid of my head coach at Ben Johnson agreed.
20:43Now you can't just do that because there's rules for hiring, but I, he, it was so unbelievable.
20:48Like looking at his, his metrics in terms of what he had accomplished, how young he was, he's like a computer engineering major.
20:55Um, and really he sort of captivated the whole league with what he was doing.
20:59And so I, I tried to dig into different things that he was doing that was unique.
21:03And, you know, this, this idea that there's a lot of coaches that just look at second and short and they're like, let's just go pick it up.
21:11Let's pick it up. Like Greg Roman. I don't know if you guys saw that one, but Greg Roman had a stretch
21:17from middle of 2019 to his end of his chargers career where every second and one to two, it was with that
21:23were like, not at the goal line. They had, they had 135 runs in one pass.
21:27Like that's just literally what he was. I swear to God.
21:30And like legitimately. So like we played him in the chart with the chargers last year.
21:34And it was actually, it was actually the game that Tom Brady came up and was in the booth.
21:39And like, he's like sitting next to me and I have like all these tables and stuff and I'd bring it up on the headset different times.
21:47And like, they get a second one to two and I like look over at my, I'm a little chart and it's like, here's the run thing.
21:54And I'm like telling Pac Ram and Pete and like, sure enough, they run it.
21:58Like, that's just what he does. And they're like, people at the booths are like, Oh damn, that's cool.
22:03Like, how'd you know that? I'm like, okay, well it was a pretty good time.
22:07Yeah. And the best part is the one time that they actually passed, it was like an uptempo play in the second quarter against the Patriots.
22:14And they took a brutal sack. And I was like, never again, but that'll be interesting with, um, you know, cause Greg
22:20ended up going, but joining back on with John Harbaugh and Maggie actually, you know, was a little bit more willing to throw in some of those situations.
22:27But this idea that even in like third and shorts and fourth and shorts, like there seems to be like a wellness
22:33from Ben to try to, rather than leaning into the sneak thing, he's like, I'm going to try to go for big plays as much as possible.
22:41And then as much of the first and second down stuff, he's, he's so 50, 50 and everything.
22:46So like, he's the most 50, 50 guy on first and, you know, on second and short, the most 50, 50 guy
22:51on second and three to six, the most 50, 50 guy on second and seven to 10.
22:56A lot of the analytics guys criticize him on the second to seven to 10 runs.
23:00But I think there's actually like a master plan where essentially you can't game plan it going forward, as opposed to like,
23:06I think Steichen's a great coach, but like everyone in the league had caught on.
23:10They were throwing every time on second and seven to 10 as the season went on.
23:15And it's like, okay, do you start calling different defenses?
23:17Do you match with lighter personnel? Do you blitz, you know, call pass pressures or, you know, do you line up in
23:23fronts because you know that they're not going to run the ball?
23:27Like there's, there's a balance there where you can get too extreme.
23:30And I think that's part of what makes Ben Johnson's offense sustainable.
23:33And people have asked like, are people going to catch on to your offense?
23:37And he just like laughs about it. And I'm kind of with him in the sense that what are they going to figure out that you're 50, 50?
23:44Like, yeah, then what? It's one thing if you're the Eagles and the team figures out how to stop the tush push.
23:50And you're like, well, there goes 90% of our short yardage offense.
23:53But he, there, there is so much of what Ben does that everything looks exactly the same.
23:58And then he has some kind of change up.
24:00And, you know, I was talking to Pat Graham when we were playing them last year.
24:05And he's like, you don't even, cause I would give the coaches like a tendency sheets.
24:09And he's like, you don't even really need to give me one this week because like, I know it's just a wild card.
24:15He's like, the one thing I do know is like, he's going to call some trick players up that early on this game.
24:21Like, so we got to be ready for that stuff.
24:24So it's super impressive. And, um, I would, I would expect just when somebody is such an outperformer as a play caller
24:30for so many consecutive years, like you can't say it was a Jared golf thing, or it was the Detroit O-line.
24:36It was a junior. No, like he's, he's done it so many times that I think if you were you'd feel a
24:42lot safer about your investments with a guy that almost certainly is going to have a way to sort of figure out
24:48how to get a good offense going, you know, even if they do suffer injuries or have to kind of adapt a little bit.
24:54It's kind of interesting to see the, the league.
24:56Um, a lot of the, the trends seem to be backing up what we've been doing in Madden for, for two decades,
25:02like the second and first stuff, the, the fourth down decision-making and stuff.
25:06It just seems like we're in such a new place now that it's like finding some like younger quality control coach, like
25:12does seem like where I would be like looking around just because it seems like we've like really flipped things like, or
25:18we even just for the decade that you started till now, it seems like we've like almost done like a big one 80 here.
25:24There's been like an explosion in like the ease of, uh, accessing other teams film or even college film.
25:29It used to be like a hassle. And now more of like the tech savvy, younger guys can quickly pull up like,
25:35Hey, Louisville's doing this or two lanes doing this.
25:38Or, um, this was super cool that, you know, let me, let's find all the counter bluff reverses in the NFL.
25:43Like that used to be a nightmare to try to do.
25:46And you couldn't even do it like, unless you just manually started digging and now you can kind of get that stuff.
25:52And I think the guys that are tech savvy or at least have some like savvier people helping them out with their
25:58sort of game planning and stuff have definitely have an advantage right now.
26:02I mean, this seems like a long time ago, but in the grand scheme of the league, it's not 15 years ago,
26:08Ryan, I was had a cup of coffee with the Rams scouting department when they were in St.
26:12Louis. And even in 2011, you had to literally take VCR tapes and plug them in and watch, you know, the college prospects.
26:19And then that's what the film was versus everything being in database that is sortable.
26:23So it's not surprising at all that in that last 15 years or ever since that was all digitized, um, everything is
26:29just exponentially, you know, progressed so much faster. And one of those things I did want to bring up, cause we can
26:35kind of speed around this, but I know that quarterback sneaks have kind of become your obsession over, let's say the last
26:4110 years, you wrote that in 2016, there were less than 70 quarterback sneaks last season.
26:45There were 340 of them. And also no team has ever been stopped on four straight sneaks on first and goal from the one yard line.
26:52Yeah. So what I would say on that is, you know, I grew up in Massachusetts and I, you know, my memory,
26:58I was about 10 years old when the Patriots kind of dynasty began and I went to a million games and I followed it.
27:04You know, that was the, that was the broadcast that you'd watch on 1 PM on, on Sundays and forever.
27:10Nobody could ever explain to me why everyone is not just copying New England.
27:13Like they had a stretch for like 15 years where they had double the sneaks of anyone else.
27:18And so like, I get to the Eagles and you know, in particular with Peterson's first year, like I was super grateful.
27:24I kept my job. I was like retained from the previous staff because I'd started a year before.
27:29And I was like, really, my attitude was like, I'm just going to, you know, do one of my ass, like lay low.
27:35Like the last thing I want to do is like, try to tell some new head coach like, Hey bro, like we got to do this, whatever.
27:42But as we developed a great relationship and as I developed a really good relationship with Jeff Stout and the online coach,
27:48I spent a lot of time that following off season after our first year, we ran two sneaks in 2016.
27:54And I'm like, you know, there was Doug Peterson's on the hot seat.
27:57There's like, you know what the Philly media is like, if you go seven to nine, they're like, you're done.
28:03Like, so I was like, I'm not going down like this.
28:06I'm like, this is such a bottleneck. And like, this is it.
28:09Once you know the numbers and you've seen like the operation, like it's like hard to watch a game or be part
28:15of a game and like, see the team not doing it.
28:18So we just really dug into all that very, very in depth and all the concerns about like quarterback getting hurt.
28:23You can only do it when it's under a yard.
28:26You can only do it. You can't do it if there's two guys in the A gaps, but now people are like,
28:32wait a minute, we could just put the backup in, or wait a minute, we could just put a tight end in.
28:38And this last year you saw more backup quarterbacks, you know, that, or sorry, more non QBs take sneaks, you know, than, than ever before.
28:45I don't even know. I was joking with Jason Kelsey the other day.
28:48Like, I don't even think you can call them sneaks anymore.
28:51Like there needs to be a new word because there's no surprise element in most of these, but, um, uh, and, and he is the official sneak champion.
28:59Like thank, thankfully, like once we had that data, he was like, basically gonna like strangle somebody if we didn't call a
29:05sneak, like, and like, so when the players want to do it, like that just kind of takes care of itself.
29:10But we actually experimented because Gino had very few sneaks in college or sorry, very few sneaks over his career.
29:16And people were like, Oh, maybe it's not his body type.
29:19We were experimenting with Brock doing it. And we, we were, he was taking snaps and camp and whatnot.
29:24Unfortunately, literally in that first game, Gino got hurt like his groin and it was sort of a lingering thing.
29:29And Brock hurts his knee. And so like our first two sneak options, we ended up still doing, you know, I don't
29:35know, 10 or so on the year, but it kind of slowed our sort of plan on that.
29:40But you see some teams like the Seahawks are just like, Oh, we're just going to literally put a tight end in there every single time.
29:47You know, I think I'm going to put it at about 75% chance that the Eagles at least experiment with some kind
29:53of non like quote, I use the word rugby scrum because Pete Carroll said it.
29:57And I thought it was hilarious. Cause like, that's literally what the play is.
30:01So he'd be like, we're, we can have a sneak play, but we're going to have rugby scrum as a separate play that we're going to experiment with.
30:08And some teams, like we brought in like a legitimate, uh, rugby, uh, like a rugby coach.
30:13Like, and we just like to like a zoom with him and asked him about the leverage and everything.
30:18And we're like trying to make up stuff on defense.
30:21Like, can we push the guys on defense? Like, I don't even know what, you know, what that would look like.
30:26And even Ryan last year, I feel like the counter punch for the Eagles on maybe four or five touchdowns for Dallas
30:32Goddard was to pitch it out in those situations because everyone was, you know, so clustered in the middle.
30:37Then it was leaving the free space to Dallas Goddard to get to the edge.
30:41Yeah. There there's, there's like a, if you think of the game theory, like big picture, like for the longest time, sneaks
30:47were just so much better than everything else. You probably could just keep doing it, but it's, we've really reached a point
30:53where particularly on like the fourth down plays that are not right on the goal line, like a mixed strategy is probably the best thing.
31:00Like the Mark Andrews, like spin out that he had for the long touchdown and different, like 30, 40 yard gains.
31:06Like that really is the best way to not only, you know, have the most of, you know, explosiveness and effectiveness, but
31:12also to boost the sneaks because then these teams have to play, they have to play it straight.
31:16There were some snaps last year. There was guys like laying on the ground pre-snap to try to stop.
31:22Like people were just making stuff up and people were then just still running the sneaks anyways.
31:26And like, there, there is a point where like, okay, maybe this does not make any sense anymore.
31:31One thing I'd say is like, you know, we were, our team was just not good.
31:35Like everyone kind of knew that with the Raiders, but as things were playing out and like, we had those injuries and stuff.
31:41Like I just went down this little wormhole and I'm like, who would be the best player on the team to do this?
31:48If we were just going to go like with these, you know, scrum tush push type things.
31:52And it's just so happened that Max Crosby is like eerily similar frame to Josh Allen.
31:57They're both six, four and seven eights. And they're, they're three cone times were within one, one hundredth of a second.
32:02And Max is actually bigger. He's heavier and he's faster.
32:05And Max is like a really good athlete. Now, Max also had like a significant health thing, but I like said it to Max at one point.
32:12He's like, bro, I would get that every single time.
32:15Like I, you, you, I really think like, there's no compelling reason that you have to say, Oh, we're doing this with a tight end.
32:22Like there's some really dynamic big guys in the, in the league that could be defenders could be, you know, some of
32:28those are I mean, like I would, if I'm the Rams, like, you know, say Puka Nakua is healthy.
32:33Like that's a dynamic player that has some strength to him.
32:36Like, is there a world's interesting? Aaron Donald's TV sneak role.
32:39Let's see what happens, man. I actually, as I was digging.
32:42So like this staff that we had, there's no teams ever been stopped on four consecutive sneaks on a set of downs in the NFL.
32:48There's never been three consecutive. And I was digging through some college data.
32:52There actually is like, has been like one or two times that a team has been stopped on three straight.
32:57But as I was looking through it, I found a snap of Southern university.
33:01And I don't even know if I can like post this online.
33:04Cause there's like all these college film rules and stuff.
33:07Southern university put a guy in that was like 400 pounds as a pusher.
33:11He is the, he legitimately looked like the largest human being I've ever seen in my life.
33:15And he just completely just dwarf the it's, it's completely hilarious.
33:18But I also like, I've, I mentioned it on this thing that I'm doing with Nick Underhill for our little show that we're just doing.
33:25That's kind of like innovative schematic strategies and whatnot that they were hitting on.
33:29I actually think that if I was optimizing this and I still wanted to do the tush pushes, I would actually take
33:35it either a tight end or offensive lineman and take him in fast motion, say five to seven yards off the line
33:41of scrimmage and towards the tackle box. And then on the snap, like he immediately veers up and then he's like your second surge player.
33:47So if you think about Trent Williams, when he just was obliterating people on those kickouts, like, but totally experimental would not do that.
33:54Tell that to the ball carrier. Yeah. The ball carrier is like, I hate that idea.
33:58So like, listen to this. So like, I'm going to put my Nostradamus projection is that I'm going to say that I
34:04think somebody is going to do this, this running start thing.
34:07And either it's going to be an injury or it's going to be so effective that the league is going to ban it after the season.
34:14Like it, cause they were close to banning the pushing two years ago.
34:17And then the Eagles just didn't have as good of a year this last year.
34:22But even if you took six games in the last season and can pull the media is the tush push getting banned.
34:27It probably would have gotten 95%. Yes, it's getting banned.
34:30And it was because when they, when, when the, uh, when the Eagles play the chiefs, it was like this incredibly embarrassing thing where guys were jumping early.
34:38Then there was another one, like the giants ripped the ball out and they blew it dead early because it was like,
34:44they couldn't even tell the play was still going on.
34:46And there was way too many instances where it really became hard to officiate.
34:50Um, but I think if the Eagles say had like beat the 49ers in the playoffs and like the game ended with
34:56them just like smashing forward on, like, I think the thing really honestly probably would have got brought up again in terms of like a potential ban.
35:03And I, and I could see, uh, there there's, there's clearly, it was like two votes away from getting banned.
35:09I could see there's like enough annoyance that that could be, end up being a narrative again.
35:13Ryan, you've said it all. This was electric. You also mentioned that you are doing a show with Nick Underhill.
35:19You all can search for it. It's in the description down below.
35:22It's, uh, Paganetti and Underhill. Uh, we love Nick.
35:24He's absolutely one of the best in the biz at what he does, uh, at, at covering the saints at such a high level.
35:31And, uh, also is out there trying to teach people football along with you.
35:35So I think it's an amazing, uh, collaboration between two, uh, people that, again, make not just us, but everyone else smarter with the game.
35:41So Ryan appreciate it. Uh, everyone go follow Ryan on Twitter and, you know, push him a little bit more, push, push
35:47him a little bit more to, uh, continue posting, uh, some, some of this information that's behind the curtain and peeking through keyholes of, uh, NFL franchises.
35:54Cause Ryan, we do, we really do appreciate it.
35:57I appreciate you guys having me and I'll say, um, any fans that if you guys got a crazy idea, just tag
36:03me somewhere on Twitter and, and, and I'll start digging on it.
36:06And, you know, you never know. I, I got a message, you know, yesterday that, you know, one of the head coaches
36:12had basically printed out one of my tweets and asked an analyst to like, sort of duplicate it for their own team.
36:18So like the, the, the world of media is seen by a lot of these guys.
36:22Like there's some of these head coaches are literally following, they might be following your accounts or following my cats.
36:28Some of them have burners. Like they, they're keeping an eye on this stuff.
36:31And so, um, you know, for fans, like there, there are cases you bring up something like it and it can literally
36:37have a tangible impact on like impacting your favorite team.
36:40And like, you might notice some tendency or something that the, honestly, the teams on team, you know, hadn't figured out themselves.
36:46So it's an awesome time. Like, I really appreciate you guys having me and, you know, I'm excited to see kind of
36:52follow a little bit more of the fantasy space this year.
36:55Love that. All right, everyone. We're back with two more shows this week.
36:58That's yes. Four shows per week, at least until the season kicks off.
37:02So we'll see you on the next one.
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