8 Running Backs You Are Drafting with Insane Confidence
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
48 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jun 26, 2026
Published
Fri, June 26, 2026
23
Player insights
13
Players mentioned
Topics
Aaron JonesDavid MontgomeryJordan MasonKenneth Walker IIIRhamondre StevensonSaquon BarkleyBlake CorumChuba HubbardDemond ClaiborneJaylen WarrenKyler MurrayTony PollardWoody Marks
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Jones
NegativeProjection39:23
Last year was his lowest yards per carry season (career low by 0.3 yards). Even when the Vikings offense is really good, fantasy points at running back don't materialize; there's not much ceiling. In 2024 when Vikings scored 9th most points in NFL, Aaron Jones ranked as RB20 in points per game. He and Jordan Mason combined for only 8 attempts inside the 5-yard line and 15 carries inside the 10-yard line (which would rank 30th among all individual ball carriers), indicating insufficient touchdown opportunities.
Insight pageNegativeInjury41:12
31 years old with 5 games missed due to hip, shoulder, toe, hamstring, knees, and toes injuries. All of his per-season per-touch numbers were worse last year. Analyst expresses concern that the cliff has arrived: 'once you start hitting that the cliff is here and the cliff has arrived... I'm kind of worried we're at that point here.'
Insight pageNegativeBust44:12
Analyst calls Aaron Jones 'one of the easiest fades out there.' Despite being the last quote-unquote starting running back to be drafted in fantasy, there are five or six running back twos selected ahead of the Vikings running back one at this point. Rush yards over expected is negative 4% versus Jordan Mason's positive 12%.
Insight pageBlake Corum
PositiveValue46:46
Listed in the next tier down from the seventh-round runningbacks (Chuba, Jalen Warren, Tony Pollard), alongside common guy and Rico Daddle. Analyst notes this tier 'is a very different feeling having one of those guys in your flex spot versus, you know, someone that's on your bench in week one.'
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
PositiveValue46:06
Listed among seventh-round running backs that 'feel so good' in half PPR scoring. Analyst notes these price tags feel attractive and that having one of these guys in your flex spot versus on your bench in week one is 'a very different feeling.'
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
NegativeValue13:33
Drafted as RB20 but finished 2024 as RB31 in points per game; ranked RB25 (64th overall) by analyst, behind his ADP of 50. Analyst does not think he profiles much different than Tony Pollard, Chuba Hubbard, Ramondre Stevenson, Jalen Warren—guys drafted much later. Contract is only 2 years/$16M with $10M guaranteed (nowhere near Joe Mixon's deal). Analyst skeptical of his current ability at age 29 with nine straight seasons of 180+ touches since Iowa State—significant wear and tear. Texans RB history is concerning: 2023 was Devin Singletary (RB35) vs Damian Pierce, 2024 was Woody Marks (RB35), only 2023 Joe Mixon season was awesome (RB9/RB5 usage).
Insight pageNegativeProjection16:00
Analyst projects David Montgomery as flex-to-low-end RB2 at best, not a true difference-maker. Early-down role with Woody Marks handling passing situations. Texans offensive line has been 31st in EPA per carry and 22nd in rush yards per game since 2023—very poor. Analyst notes both pro and con cases hinge on volume, which is concerning when both sides make same argument. Compares to running back dead-zone archetypes (Chuba Hubbard, Isaiah Pacheco, James Connor, Rashad White, Mike Davis) that have failed more often than succeeded. If it hits: 14+ touches/week for 17 games with improved red zone efficiency. If it fails: typical dead-zone outcome. Rookie center Keelan Rutledge changing positions adds concern.
Insight pageNegativeRole17:30
Analyst expects David Montgomery to be early-down guy with Woody Marks handling pass-game work. Offensive coordinator Nick Haley chose committee backfield last year and grew up watching Patriots who always chopped backfield into twos or threes. Baseline case is Montgomery gets early downs, Marks gets passing situations. Texans offensive line concerns (31st in EPA per carry, 22nd in rush yards per game since 2023) limit upside. Analyst prefers to draft someone with first pick of fifth round who has chance to return value as second or third round pick—doesn't see that ceiling with Montgomery.
Insight pageDemond Claiborne
NegativeRole43:48
Very slight with explosiveness in open field, but has major issues in passing situations. 'Horrific in passing situations. So bad, awful hands, even on swing and flat routes, and then horrific when it came to pass protection.' At ~185 pounds, he needs air back to him, but lacks it. These deficiencies in passing-down role might minimize what he can do early and even later in the season. Analyst does not like his chances of carving out a significant role.
Insight pageJaylen Warren
PositiveValue46:06
Listed among seventh-round running backs that 'feel so good' in half PPR scoring. Analyst notes these price tags feel attractive and that having one of these guys in your flex spot versus on your bench in week one is 'a very different feeling.'
Insight pageJordan Mason
PositiveBreakout39:43
Younger and more powerfully built than Aaron Jones; analyst believes if one of these guys was going to explode for 10 touchdowns, it would be Jordan Mason, not Aaron Jones. Had 10 of the 15 combined carries inside the 10-yard line (versus Aaron Jones' 5), giving him more goal-line opportunity. Rush yards over expected is positive 12% versus Aaron Jones' negative 4%. Analyst prefers Jordan Mason straight up and notes his efficiency is better.
Insight pageNegativeRole39:54
Despite being the more talented option, Jordan Mason is 'such a zero as a pass catcher' that even if Aaron Jones goes down, he won't have much receiving juice on top of the carries. This limits his ceiling in PPR formats and overall fantasy upside.
Insight pagePositiveProjection42:12
Analyst believes Jordan Mason 'possibly can like goal line himself into like eight touchdowns this season,' which would provide meaningful upside. Brad Beats 84 message supports this: 'I'm a Jordan Mason bull this year simply because I believe a more efficient offense means more goals to go to temps, which should be handled by Mason eight plus touchdown upside.'
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveValue7:51
Drafted as RB10 but finished 2024 as RB28 in points per game; ranked 13th overall with ADP at 16th on Underdog. Signed $28M guaranteed contract with Kansas City Chiefs. Analyst buying this price tag. Chiefs RB group has been horrific since 2022; Kenneth Walker has better explosive play rate than Seahawks despite worse offensive line. Now has best offensive line of his career with Andy Reid, who has history with elite RBs (Deuce Daly, Brian Westbrook, Jamar Charles, LeSean McCoy). LeSean McCoy's final three seasons with Reid averaged 1800 scrimmage yards on 17-game pace. Walker can catch and competing against nobodies (Amari Di Mercado, Emmitt Johnson, Rashard Smith) for carries.
Insight pagePositiveProjection10:00
Analyst projects top-3 to top-5 outcome if everything breaks right. Chiefs ranked 32nd in rush yards after contact per attempt last year despite 10th in yards before contact, indicating talent gap; Kenneth Walker creates game-changing moments that few players match. Averaged 17.5 fantasy points over last 26 games playing 60%+ snaps; should play 65-70% snaps this season. Analyst expects magical numbers if given this opportunity. Yahoo ADP at 21 suggests some redraft leagues haven't caught up to best ball pricing. Comparison to Kareem Hunt's rookie season (RB5 in PPG with Andy Reid) suggests special upside.
Insight pagePositiveRole10:30
Kenneth Walker is the entire offseason investment for Chiefs to change their rushing formula. He's the only substantial offensive move the team made, signaling organizational commitment. Chiefs were 20th in explosive carries with only 29 plays of 25+ yards in 2024 (only 5 teams had fewer); jumped to 37 last year but Kenneth Walker is the difference-maker, not first-round pick Xavier Worthy or other receivers. Analyst states: 'Kenneth Walker is the difference in all that. He is the investment to change all of that.'
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveProjection42:48
Analyst suggests Kyler Murray 'would be a better pick' than the Cardinals running backs in best ball and believes 'there's a chance Kyler Murray could be a top 10 fantasy quarterback this year.' Prefers Murray over the backfield options in that range.
Insight pageRhamondre Stevenson
PositiveValue45:00
Drafted as RB28 despite finishing last year as RB21 in points per game, representing significant undervaluation. Analyst notes he's 'not some pushover back' and likes his profile. He's the biggest back in the backfield, so he'll get goal-line work. Film from past season was better in pass protection and included big wheel route work; he ran hard between the tackles.
Insight pagePositiveProjection45:03
Production was not front-weighted; he was 'lighting it up' from week 16 through the Super Bowl, suggesting strong late-season momentum heading into the new year. Offensive line improvements could help. Analyst states 'I do think that Ramondre Stevenson is not some pushover back' and understands taking swings on both him and Travion Henderson.
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
PositiveValue2:35
Drafted as RB7 but finished 2024 as RB15 in points per game; ranked 11th overall and RB5 by analyst despite high draft capital. Argument that he remains undervalued despite being at the one-to-turn. Positive updates include new offensive coordinator from Packers, expected offensive line health improvements (Lane Johnson, Landon Dickerson returning), and only 1 TD conversion on 11 goal-line carries last year suggesting touchdown regression opportunity. Analyst notes slight decrease from age 29 but expects similar overall performance to 2024 when he was elite; workload should remain high. Offensive line health and coordinator change are key drivers for upside.
Insight pagePositiveProjection5:00
Analyst projects Saquon could finish closer to RB3 than RB15 if offensive line and running game improve. Notes he had 72, 70, 68, 65, 39, 25, 23-yard TD runs two years ago versus only two TD runs longer than 13 yards last season; if he's still 90% of 2024 player, cohesive offensive line gets him much closer to RB3 finish. Expects him to get the rock a ton; if Eagles move away from push-play situations, could add couple more TDs. Jalen Hurts running less reduces goal-line opportunities but running game is top priority for Eagles offense.
Insight pageTony Pollard
PositiveValue46:06
Listed among seventh-round running backs that 'feel so good' in half PPR scoring. Analyst notes these price tags feel attractive and that having one of these guys in your flex spot versus on your bench in week one is 'a very different feeling.'
Insight pageWoody Marks
PositiveRole15:00
Woody Marks expected to handle passing situations and pass-game work for Texans, with David Montgomery taking early-down role. Analyst notes Marks could make backfield close to even by end of season. Texans were tied for 32nd in yards after contact per attempt last season (same as Marks and Nick Chubb), suggesting offensive line limitations.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:54Yesterday, we covered the wide receivers. Today, it's the running backs that you all are drafting with extreme confidence.
1:00Yes, 17 games were played last year. Either these names gave you joy or plenty of grief.
1:05They were on your roster. And now we have a draft and frequency in our back pockets and they are being selected
1:12in a much different draft slot than where they finished last season.
1:15That's what it's all about. Names drafted much earlier or later than they finished the 2025 season.
1:20And speaking of earlier, Hayden, I mean, the prices on running backs this year are higher than ever.
1:26Are they even high enough? I think that's a question worth asking.
1:29Yeah, I looked into this. So, what I did here on this crazy chart here is I looked at where they finished
1:36last year in fantasy points over placement per game.
1:38So, that's my favorite metric to look across fantasy positions.
1:41And then I compared it to the underdog ADP.
1:44So, this is both half PPR on the scoring and on the ADP here.
1:48And I took the top 25 biggest differences on each side.
1:51So, players getting drafted way earlier or way later.
1:54And you see on the running backs chart, almost all of the 25 guys being drafted after where they finished last year are running backs.
2:01So, even though the prices are up right now, if you're looking at what happened last season versus the price tags, the
2:08running backs as a whole have not moved high up enough, which is pretty crazy.
2:12And that goes from like the top end guys, you know, your Derrick Henry's, Devon H.
2:17Hans, Kyron Williams, all the way to the next year, like the Ramondre Stevenson's, Tyrone Tracy's, Woody Marks.
2:22Those type of guys are going to be being drafted way, way later.
2:26There's only a couple exceptions where running backs are now being drafted a lot earlier than where they finished last year.
2:32And they're pretty obvious, like facial toot and going into a bigger role.
2:36But just in general, running back prices are up.
2:39And I would argue not high enough. Well, we'll talk about that as we go along in this episode.
2:45And obviously, this summer, when we talk about draft strategies.
2:48Well, let's dive into some specific names. We'll talk about the much earlier ones to open.
2:52And this goes to the top of the draft.
2:55I mean, Saquon Barkley is drafted as the running back seven.
2:58He finished last year as the running back 15 in points per game.
3:02Hey, I think there is an argument to make that Saquon Barkley, despite being at the one to turn, which is a high pick for all of you.
3:10It's still potentially one of the most undervalued assets in fancy football this season.
3:15I got ranked 11th overall. He's my RB five.
3:17So I'm with you. This isn't in half PPR here.
3:20There's just a lot of positive updates for this year's Eagles versus last year's one offensive coordinator.
3:25We're expecting that to get better. Offensive line health should get better with Lane Johnson and Dickerson and those guys missing time or playing through injuries.
3:33And then Saquon Barkley only converted one of his 11 goal line carries for touchdowns last year.
3:38That's just going to get better as the entire environment around him gets a little bit better.
3:43So, yeah, I'm not expecting this to be the 2024 version, but could I sandwich, you know, 2024 versus last year and come up with a win?
3:51I certainly can. So I think it comes down to the offensive line health plus offensive coordinator.
3:56And I thought Saquon Barkley largely looked about the same as he did the year prior when he was one of the best running backs in the league.
4:04I think maybe slight decrease. He's 29 years old now, but for the most part, he's going to get the rock a ton.
4:11And if they ever got away from the push push stuff, like you can add a couple more touchdowns to that.
4:17I think there's a possibility that they do that.
4:20Jalen Hurts just doesn't want to run as much as he used to and get put in those situations as much as he used to.
4:27Just overall top down view of the Philadelphia Eagles.
4:30The most important part for them is about getting this running game right.
4:34You know, so much of the conversation this summer is going to be about what Sean Mannion is going to do with
4:40Jalen Hurts and Devante Smith and take this passing game, you know, to the next iteration of it.
4:46But to me, none of that matters unless they can get this running game back to closer to where it was in
4:522024, because that is what changes the math. That is what changes the defense and the coverage more often than what Jalen
4:59Hurts is going to be as a pure pocket passer and pick apart a defense.
5:03I mean, even last year in a down season, again, as the running back 15 in points per game, he still was
5:10the running back seven and expected fantasy points per contest.
5:13So the workload was really still there that we needed.
5:16Yet they averaged and were 16th in rushing yards before contact per attempt.
5:19The Eagles running backs were compare that to 2024.
5:22They ranked second. They were seventh in explosive runs this past season with 58, which is still a nice number.
5:28But compare that to 2024. That was at 77, the second most.
5:32And yeah, I mean, I was one of the people that said, of course, we can take Saquon Barkley early in drafts
5:38last year, despite him getting what 400 touches the previous year.
5:41And, you know, all the permutations that typically fall from that.
5:45And they're all negative. I, this is just my eye test.
5:48I did not see like a major drop off, but in the numbers, there were major drop offs.
5:53I mean, again, two years ago, he had touchdown runs of 72, 70, 68, 65, 39, 25 and 23 yards.
5:59And then last season, only two touchdown runs longer than 13 yards.
6:03So if he really hasn't changed overall as a player, if he's still 90% of the player that he was back in
6:092024, all that we need is just a cohesive and solid offensive line and running game.
6:14And then we are getting much closer to that running back to three finish than we are to me as the absolute
6:20floor of that running back 15 finish that we got last year.
6:24Yeah. To put some numbers on that, Lane Johnson played nine games, Landon Dickerson, 14 games, Cam Juergen, 14 games.
6:30But those those players were playing through injuries even when they were out there.
6:34So hopefully there's a little bit healthier. I think they're they are going to miss Jeff Stoutland, like maybe the correct offensive line coach ever.
6:41But at the same time, the new O.C. coming to town comes from the Packers who had, you know, Josh Jacobs in
6:48a very, very fantasy friendly role here. So, I mean, even last year, everything hit hit the fan and he was still,
6:55you know, like a round two, round three type of guy.
6:58So I would be wanting to draft him at the one to turn.
7:02I'd rather have him than Ashton Jenty. At some point this summer, we will basically reorder how we think the top 15 picks should go in fantasy football.
7:10Saquon Barkley is already in the last month climbed ahead of another running back in the second round.
7:15And so he hasn't always been at this one to turn.
7:18I would rank him even higher than this. I am very, very pro Saquon Barkley this season.
7:24And yeah, I mean, the offensive line stuff could go one way or the other.
7:28Like you can easily make the case that without just Stoutland, that it's going to get worse at the same time.
7:34Uh, it, if you read between the lines, there's a lot of positivity and optimism that this is like the new wave
7:41of the future here for the Philadelphia Eagles. And only things can go up versus where it was in 2025.
7:47Okay. Next name. Kenneth Walker, the third. Yep. We're doing it again this summer.
7:51Drafted as the running back 10 this year. Finished last year, as we all know, as a running back 28 in points per game.
7:58So where are we at with Ken Walker on a new team in the Kansas City Chiefs?
8:03I'm buying this price tag. I got him ranked 13th overalls.
8:06ADPs at 16th on underdog. He signed a $28 million guaranteed contract.
8:10This running back group for the Chiefs has just been horrific for a very long time since 2022.
8:15Their success rate has been higher than what the Seahawks have had with, with Kenneth Walker.
8:20But the explosive play rate is like light years different.
8:23And that's crazy because the Seahawks offensive line has not even been good.
8:27And you can make an argument that this Chiefs interior offensive line is pretty damn impressive here.
8:32So I think you can argue that this is the best offensive line Kenneth Walker has ever played behind with Andy Reid,
8:38who has it's been a little bit. But if you go all the way back, there's been some crazy fantasy seasons.
8:44Deuce Daly, Brian Westbrook, Jamar Charles, LaShawn McCoy. I think LaShawn McCoy and Kenneth Walker, there's a lot of actual similarities between those players.
8:51Those guys went absolutely nuts. And just to put that into perspective here, LaShawn McCoy's final three seasons with Andy Reid, his
8:5817 game pace was 1800 scrim jars. So I think there is a huge ceiling with Kenneth Walker.
9:03I think he's shown that he can at least catch the football.
9:07He's not like super reliable in pass protection, but he's competing with like, it's Amari Di Mercado, Emmitt Johnson, Rashard Smith.
9:13I mean, it's absolutely nobody's out there. I think the entire offseason plan has been Kenneth Walker is just going to change the entire formula.
9:20We don't have to really worry about wide receivers.
9:23So I want to buy it. That's it. Like we always say that teams are honest with their wallets and with their draft picks.
9:30The only substantial move the Chiefs made in this offseason on offense was bringing in Ken Walker, the third.
9:36And why is that? Well, we talked about it on a weekly basis last year that the Chiefs running game had a
9:42high success rate that they were hitting singles with, you know, whatever cream hunt was and even patch from home scrambling and whoever else you know throughout there.
9:51Now with their wallets, they told you that that's not enough, that that didn't matter that much in the win loss column.
9:57And that only gets you so far that you have to now in this version of the NFL with how coverages and defenses are set up.
10:05You have to generate explosives in the running game, especially if you can't create them in the passing game, which the Chiefs
10:11have struggled to do over the last couple of seasons.
10:14And they can do that. I mean, they just need a talent like Ken Walker, the third, because they ranked last year
10:2110th in rush yards before contact per attempt. But then we're 32nd in rush yards after contact per attempt.
10:27So Ken Walker, we debated it and we discussed it last offseason as an individual talent.
10:31Sure, he's going to have some stuff rates. He's going to have some negative runs, but very few players create the game changing moments that he does.
10:39And as we saw that when Zach Charbonnet went down, he has three down talent.
10:44He has workhorse talent. And that goes back to him averaging 17 and a half fancy points over the last 26 games
10:50that he's played 60 plus percent of the snaps.
10:53He should play 65, 70 percent of the snaps this season.
10:56And I cannot wait to see it because I am certainly would have gotten and maybe not healthy for 17 games, but
11:03we would have gotten magical numbers from K-9 last year if he was given this type of opportunity.
11:08And now he gets it on the Kansas City Chiefs.
11:11Yep. I think there's a top three, top five outcome here for Kenneth Walker.
11:15If everything kind of breaks his way, just the history of Andy Reid and how good Kenneth Walker is and how desperate
11:22they are for this type of player. It's all kind of a line.
11:25I just looked real quick on Yahoo is ADP is at 21.
11:29So I think some of our redraft leagues, they have not got up to exactly where we are in best ball.
11:35And I want to be just doubling down. If he's like a late round two pick, he's like somebody that we will
11:42just be not talking or we can't stop talking about him as we get closer to redraft time.
11:47And there's one more name. You brought up a bunch of Philadelphia Eagles running backs.
11:51I'll also throw in Kareem Hunt during Andy Reid's time and his rookie season with the Kansas City Chiefs where a rookie
11:58Kareem Hunt finished as the running back five and points per game that season.
12:02I mean, this is special stuff with Ken Walker.
12:05There's more numbers here. Okay. Last season, the Chiefs were 20th in explosive carries just overall, and they had just 29 explosive
12:11plays in 2024 of 25 plus yards. Only five teams had less.
12:15Only five teams had less. Now that did jump up to 37 last year, but you can, you package like the frustrations
12:21that I have had when watching the Chiefs over the last two seasons.
12:25Kenneth Walker is the difference in all that. He is the investment to change all of that.
12:30It's, you know, not the first round pick and Xavier worthy.
12:34It's not all these similar types to rushy rice and lesser thans.
12:37Unless, you know, Taequann Thornton becomes the best deep threat in the NFL.
12:41Like this offense is going to the next level.
12:44And if it does, it is Kenneth Walker, the third doing it.
12:47That's for sure. Yeah, I can't believe the rushing lines at 950 yards.
12:51I mean, like that, that just seems like that seems like hundreds of yards off to me, but maybe, maybe I'm crazy.
12:58All right. Before we go any further again, this is a great grouping of episodes that we have here.
13:03If you hadn't gone and watched the wide receiver version of that, do it right after this episode.
13:08And while you're there, hit that subscribe button. It's totally free to all of you.
13:13And we've got content throughout the summer helping you get ready for your fancy football league, your fancy football draft, and just to beat up on your buddies.
13:21That's it. So hit subscribe. Next, a channel favorite for a very long time.
13:25And one I just don't know where I'm at this offseason.
13:29This is David Montgomery. He's being drafted right now as running back 20 on his new team going from the Detroit Lions over to the Houston Texans.
13:37Last year, he finished as the running back 31 in points per game.
13:40So let me know where and if I should be drafting Dave Montgomery in this spot.
13:45I got him ranked RB 25, 64th overall. His ADP is at 50.
13:49So I am slightly behind on David Montgomery. Long story short, I don't think he profiles that much different than Tony Pollard, Chuba Hubbard, Ramondre Stevenson, Jalen Warren.
13:57And those guys just get drafted a lot later.
14:00I think that the history of the Texans is fascinating.
14:03So since 2023, that's when D'Amico Ryans and CJ Stroud both showed up.
14:07That 2023 season, it was not that pretty. That was the Devin Singletary versus Damian Pierce battle.
14:12Devin Singletary was the RB 35. They traded for Joe Mixon.
14:15They signed him to a $27 million contract. He was the RB 9 and RB 5 usage.
14:20And then last year, it was Woody Marks as the running back 35.
14:24So two of the three seasons have been horrific.
14:27One season was awesome. But that was also Joe Mixon after trading for him and then extending to a big contract.
14:33David Montgomery, they traded for him. His contract is two years, $16 million with only $10 million guaranteed.
14:38So it's like nowhere near the Joe Mixon stuff.
14:41And then I also just have to wonder how good is David Montgomery at this point?
14:46He's had nine straight seasons with at least 180 touches.
14:49That's going back to Iowa State. He's going to be 29.
14:52That's just like a lot of wear and tear here.
14:55And then I wasn't a huge fan of Woody Marks.
14:58But Woody Marks is going to play the passing situations here.
15:01So it's like, OK, I've probably got an early down role for David Montgomery here.
15:05And the offensive line has been 31st in EP per carry, 22nd in rush yards per game since 2023 because the offensive line has been so bad.
15:13So I would be pretty surprised if David Montgomery was a true difference maker.
15:18I think that he can ride this workload because they want to be pretty balanced.
15:22To a flex, you know, maybe a low end RB2 range.
15:25I just don't see the pathway to kind of pay off like compared to some of the upside picks around him.
15:31So I'd rather park him right next to, you know, Chuba Hubbard, who we'll get to in a second.
15:37Yeah, the upside picks just right now on underdog.
15:40Terry McLaurin, Colson Loveland, Jalen Waddell, Jameson Williams are the four picks ahead of him.
15:44Then right after it's Devante Adams. And then, you know, this cluster of running backs that it truly might take me all
15:51summer to figure out how I really want to stack them.
15:54And Trevion, DeAndre Swift, Bucky, Quinchan Judkins, and then Basial Tootin.
15:57Still. I want DeAndre Swift. I want Swift. Yeah, that's where I'm at right now.
16:02We'll see where we are in a couple of weeks.
16:05Look, specifically in David Montgomery, like the pro and con side is the same.
16:09It's all about volume. And that always scares me when both sides make the same case for their outcomes.
16:14Again, for the positive, you can say that he's the only one in the backfield with really 14 plus touch chops on
16:21any given week that he has the workload that we want for a running back to, which is exactly what you're drafting him as running back 20.
16:29For the downside, he's 29, as you said, and it's all about workload.
16:33And the Texans are in year two of trying to fix their offensive line.
16:37So it turns into a viable fantasy backfield. I mean, this is the profile that is typically destined for running back dead zone stuff.
16:44I'll be it now. This is like the fifth round versus the third or fourth round, for example.
16:49But like, you know, we can look at Chuba Hubbard last year or Isaiah Pacheco or James Connor.
16:55Rashad White was even the running back 14 in 2024 in drafts that September.
16:59And then even Mike Davis a few years back.
17:01So like if this hits, I can tell you exactly how it hits.
17:05It's Dave Montgomery lasting for 17 weeks, getting 14 plus touches on any given week and Houston improving their red zone drives
17:12and red zone efficiency and the offense just being a tick up tick up.
17:16But if it fails, then again, I think the outcome is just as obvious.
17:20And maybe unfortunately, we've seen that negative outcome happen in this archetype a bit too often.
17:25I think there's like a chance that Woody Marks makes this like pretty close to even by the end of the season as well.
17:32I think it'll be for sure David Montgomery to start this thing.
17:36Missed tackles per touch. There's a rate stat from PFF.
17:38Last year was at 18%. The previous year is 27, 21, 24%.
17:42So slight, slight drop enforcing miss tackles last year.
17:45And yeah, he's just been playing behind a really good offensive line.
17:48And now he's got one of the worst in the league.
17:52Last note, I have Nick Haley, the offensive coordinator.
17:54Last year, couldn't say I was like super optimistic from what I was seeing out there.
17:59He ended up choosing a committee backfield. And then he also just grew up watching the Patriots who were always chopping this
18:05backfield into twos, sometimes even into threes here. So I think my baseline case is he's going to be the early down guy.
18:12Woody Marks is going to handle a lot of the past game work.
18:16And then you're talking about, you know, you're signing up for the Texans offensive line and whatnot.
18:21So I think he's got like a somewhat of a realistic floor here.
18:25I just like the first pick in the fifth round.
18:28Like I want to like, I want to live a little like, I just feel like.
18:33You want to draft someone with the first pick of the fifth round that has a chance of returning value as a second or third round pick.
18:41Yeah, I can see him being a three, four round guy, like a slight win here.
18:45I just, I'm just like not buying into a huge ceiling anymore.
18:49So just talking about the offensive line real quick again, they have chopped and changed it year over year.
18:55We know Ursary is going into his second season at left tackle.
18:58They brought in Braden Smith to play the right tackle spot.
19:01And then some combo of Evan Brown and Wyatt Teller at left guard.
19:05Then they spent a first round pick on Keelan Rutledge.
19:08Who didn't have, you know, a ton of college reps at center, but he is going to play center here.
19:14And then they gave a contract to Ed Ingram to extend him this off season.
19:19And that's the group. And so you hope that they, you know, can become a really good and solid unit.
19:24And, you know, there were some numbers last year that were fine.
19:28Again, they were 18th in red zone drives per game.
19:31The Texans were, but then 29th in red zone touchdown success rate.
19:35They were 11th in yards before contact per attempt.
19:37That was a big Nick Chubb stat, but then tied for 32nd in yards after contact per attempt, which is also what
19:44Nick Chubb and Woody Marks were last season. So I just don't like, I would love for this to be 26 year
19:50old Dave Montgomery instead of 29 year old Dave Montgomery.
19:53Right. And I mean, a rookie center changing positions, like, does that not just like reek?
19:58Like, I mean, that's, that makes me a rookie center in general is makes me nervous when he is also changing positions to do it.
20:05Like that's, that's a lot. I could not say that Kaylee and Stroud were lights out in terms of setting protections and those type of things.
20:13This last year. I mean, CJ Stroud used to never in college, excuse me, in the NFL separate actions with Bobby Slug.
20:20Like this is now in year two of it.
20:22Basically Chuba Hubbard is next drafted as running back 27 right now, despite finishing as running back 39 in points per game.
20:29So simple question. Are you in or out at this price tag?
20:32I'm slightly in on Chuba Hubbard. I have him and Dave Montgomery, like right next to each other.
20:38And they're nowhere next to each other in terms of ADP.
20:41I just want to like hit on this like timeline.
20:44Back in 2024, played 77% of the snaps. That was the first year with his current coaching staff.
20:49He was the RB 12 on RB 7 usage.
20:52His rush yards over expected was the RB force.
20:55Like that was a fantastic season. And that would be a fantastic outcome at this ADP.
20:59Then last year, he starts ahead of Rico Dowdle.
21:02He was the RB 19 for the first four weeks of the season.
21:06Then he picks up an injury. His return from injury was horrific.
21:09He only had 50 total yards, just one regular season after Rico Dowdle went crazy.
21:14His rush yards over expected was now at negative 21% after being a positive 24% back in 2024.
21:19And then they get to the playoffs and then Chuba Hubbard's the alpha 17 opportunities scores, two touchdowns.
21:24Now what? So now that we've moved on from Rico Dowdle, we've had the pros and cons of this Chuba Hubbard profile.
21:31And the guy behind him has torn his ACL a couple times in a row.
21:35He's out there. They're ramping him up. It sounds like he's on pace to play.
21:40But I've seen Chuba Hubbard for a huge part of the calendar be a fringe RB1 in fantasy.
21:45And now I'm just kind of waiting for Jonathan Brooks to kind of steal his job.
21:50This is kind of the profile that I think the projections sometimes undersell because the sexier backup is going to take his job.
21:57There's only so many backfields where it's like a complete flippening because of the coaching staff.
22:01And Jonathan Brooks, like if he had a setback, nobody would be surprised in response to that.
22:06So I really like all these running backs in this range.
22:10This these guys used to be priced in the fourth and fifth round.
22:14Right. These guys used to be in the Dave Montgomery territory.
22:17And now we're getting them two rounds later. And you look at their projections versus DK Metcalf and fantasy points.
22:23Who's going to be in your flex? It's going to be all of these running backs versus all these wide receivers.
22:29So I've been gravitating to all these guys. And I think that Chuba Hubbard, for the most part, has been a totally
22:35fine starting running back in the NFL, except when he's injured.
22:39Right. It's like when he loses five to 15 percent of his ability, then he's extremely replaceable.
22:44Yes. You know, I think that's why it's always difficult for me to talk about Chuba Hubbard because I get the positives of it.
22:51Even dating back to his time in Oklahoma State, like he's a grinder out there.
22:55He can take the volume. He can pick up the yards that are blocked for him.
23:00And, you know, the coaching staff freaking loves him.
23:03You know, they make him like the poster player for what they want the organization to be.
23:08At the same time, as you saw last year, when Chuba wasn't healthy and Rico was, then you got 200 plus rushing
23:14yard games and total yard gains and like explosive plays.
23:17Miss tackles force twisting, turning all this game changing stuff that I'm not sure Chuba really has in his bag as frequently.
23:24So, I mean, in order for this to happen, he needs to stay healthy and the offensive line needs to stay healthy.
23:30This was shocking to me. And Reeves posted this, that the Panthers most used offensive line combination last year only played 20 percent of the snaps together.
23:38That was the fourth lowest percentage across the league after Robert Hunt and Brady Christensen at right guard.
23:44I mean, that was a complete disaster when the other guys had to step in there.
23:48When those two players were in, it was quite good.
23:51We know now they have tons of tackle depth, much less guard depth.
23:55But again, if you have a solid five stars, which they do, plus some, again, backups at tackle, then this thing can work.
24:02And if the offensive line is good, then that's going to make Chuba Hubbard better.
24:06But I love Jonathan Brooks. I want Jonathan Brooks to be healthy.
24:10I know he's still super young when we talk about running backs across the board.
24:14But he really has to string together a handful of games, like even more than Rico did last year for the Panthers to just totally replace Chuba Hubbard.
24:23Because again, even with Rico's monstrous performances, they just immediately wanted to turn back to Chuba Hubbard once they were both equally healthy.
24:29Yeah. And Chuba has been like an honorary captain for points of his career that he's really trusted by this coaching staff and stuff.
24:37So I don't think it's going to be as easy as like Jonathan Brooks and do a bell cow role.
24:42Like if you're the coaching staff, his first year back from his second knee tear, are you going to really trot him
24:49out there for 70% of the snaps? I just like find that unlikely.
24:53I feel like the first half of the year, it'll be Chuba Hubbard as the lead back.
24:58And then if Jonathan Brooks is as good as we think, then he starts kind of taking over.
25:03I think some of the signs will be there where we can possibly trade him if you're in the redraft league and whatnot.
25:10So Chuba Hubbard, not the sexiest pick, but sometimes the unsexy picks at running back in best ball and half people are
25:17like those have been like home run picks in general.
25:19So I really like this price tag. Okay. On the running back breakouts video, the thumbnail is actually Basial Tootin.
25:25And he is the one with the largest gap of where he finished last year and where he's being drafted this year among all running backs.
25:33So I did just want to bring up his name and see if you wanted to say anything about him.
25:39He finished last year as running back 54 in points per game.
25:43And this year he's being drafted as running back 25.
25:46Again, an extended conversation in that running back breakouts video.
25:49Anything you want to add here onto this video?
25:51I mean, one of these two backs between Chris Rodriguez and Tootin are like just way underpriced.
25:56I mean, Travis A. Chan was the RB 11 on RB 14 usage.
26:00Liam Cohen went absolutely crazy with Bucky Irving and Rashad White the previous seasons.
26:04This is a really great offense. It's just divvying up the touches.
26:08We're going to learn more. It sounds like Chris Rodriguez is getting back to healthy.
26:12I didn't trust Basial Tootin. I'm watching him. I don't think that Liam Cohen did, but the athletic difference between Tootin and C-Rod are substantial.
26:20So no one should be very confident in their Tootin projection.
26:23I think this is about the right range to take a dart throw.
26:27But I do still find Chris Rodriguez to be pretty interesting, at least in standard and half PPR.
26:32And I think once we get back to training camp and he's out there in week one, I think that his price tag will start to go up.
26:40Because I do think there's going to be... There he is.
26:44He's first in the order of the drills. There's going to be like those tweets.
26:48Shipley's going to say, hey, he might lead this team in carries.
26:52So I do think that this ADP could end up kind of tightening.
26:55And I think that should be C-Rod going back up, not Tootin necessarily falling backwards.
27:00Yeah. I don't want to totally rehash this conversation.
27:03I think my Basial Tootin exposure is going to be far, far, far higher than my Chris Rodriguez exposure.
27:08Now, the only thing standing between that being even higher are the names that Basial Tootin is being drafted around.
27:14I mean, this 5-6 turn is freaking loaded. And this is kind of the J.R.
27:19and Price conversation too, where it's Christian Watson, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Jaden Daniels, and Tyler Warren.
27:24And like, I just want all those guys. Yeah.
27:26Yeah. I still like that Tootin is after, again, this cluster that we brought up of DeMod, Trevion, Swift, Irving, and Quinchon.
27:33I think there's a chance as we get close to the season that Basial Tootin jumps, if not one, two, or three of those names.
27:40The longer that Chris Rodriguez is out, the more and more love that Tootin is going to get in that regard.
27:46So I would get all my shares as much as possible right now.
27:50Yeah. Tootin's the RB25 and ADP. He's more likely to be the RB15 or RB35 than the RB25 by the season ends.
27:57We just don't know which one. I like that a lot.
28:00Okay. Let's flip this on its head. Then let's talk about players and running back specifically that are being drafted and selected
28:06much later than where they finished among backs last year.
28:09And once again, for basically the third straight season, we start with Kyron Williams.
28:14Yes. He finished last year as the running back eight and points per game.
28:18He's drafted as the running back 16 right now.
28:20You know, Hayden, just a cool 1300 total yards and double digit touchdowns in each of the past three seasons still does
28:27not make you a top 15 score and drafted running back in the eyes of the public heading into the next season.
28:33Yeah. I mean, this is tough because I like all the running backs in this range and I'm one of the guys
28:40I'm drafting him as the RB16 in my rankings right now.
28:43So I can't say that the public has this one wrong.
28:46I think he's a totally strong third round pick here.
28:49He did that last year when the Rams were first in points per game, yards per game and success rate.
28:55They're rushing success rate as a team last year was one of the best of all time.
29:00All time. Their left tackle right now might be going to jail.
29:04There's been a lot of allegations. We'll see if he's even going to be eligible and they do not have any tackle depth right now.
29:11And I think the Rams offense, I would project them to be top three.
29:15It's also just extremely fragile and just like how everything is built up there aside from obviously having Sean McVay.
29:21So if anything changes there, if Blake Corum mixes in a little bit, I think this Blake Corum, Kyron Williams, one, two punch.
29:28I think it's here to stay. Kyron, two thirds, Blake Corum, one third.
29:32They're interchangeable. I think they're going to keep it that way.
29:35So, yeah, I think that we should be discounting what he did last year because it's unlikely the Rams run nearly as
29:42hot as he did the season prior. But that makes him a totally fine third round pick versus being what a second rounder last year.
29:49Yeah, this is always tough because Kyron always stays healthy and then he always outlasts the ones that don't stay healthy for the entire season.
29:57And then he's on a really good team and environment.
30:00And that just lends itself to like really quality fantasy output.
30:03And, you know, even what the difference between 2020, 2024 and 2025 is that Blake Corum was involved and it still didn't
30:09really matter in terms of a fantasy outcome and fantasy output.
30:13It was still very good from Kyron Williams. Now, you know, some games it was like you said, two to one drives.
30:19Some games like in blowouts, it was one to one.
30:22He did have 10 red zone touchdowns compared to Blake Corum's five as well.
30:26But, you know, Kyron only had 59 percent of the backfield touches over the last 12 games, the final 12 games of last season.
30:33And that's like the running back 18. But as we always talk about, just because you're running back 18 in touches doesn't
30:40mean that you're going to finish the running back 18 overall because you're on a better team that scores more points.
30:46And that's what projects you and overestimates compared to just what the averages are out there.
30:51But you brought up like the alert Jackson stuff at left tack was a big thing because this is what the second
30:57time he's popped up for something like this. And the NFL can lay the hammer when that's the case.
31:03And you look at their tackle depth and I think it's Quest and Barry who's their backup left tackle.
31:09And they didn't spend the, you know, 16th overall pick on the left tackle spot.
31:13So, yeah, I mean, that changes the math and then you hope for, you know, offensive line health outside of that to stay in the same spot.
31:21So, yeah, I mean, I'm drafting Kyron of where he's at.
31:24But just when you stack all the names, despite 1,300 total yards and double digit touchdowns in three straight seasons, I still
31:31do have a tough time of ranking him higher than like running back 15.
31:35Yeah, I think last year, like even in the playoffs, the final four games of the year, he played between 50 and
31:4163 percent of the snaps back in 2024. His lowest snap rate in games at 68 percent.
31:46And most of his games were actually above 85 percent.
31:49So, I mean, that's a huge difference going from year over year.
31:53So if the Rams are somehow like seventh in scoring this year, 10th in scoring, if injuries kind of pop up, then
32:00I do think he's going to slide more. So because I don't think they're just going to remove Blake Corum all of a sudden.
32:07So, yeah, it is a fine pick. I think like there is some low end outcomes here if, you know, some injuries pile up with with the Rams.
32:15Possible stupid question here, but I'll ask it. We didn't see Blake Corum really touch the field until his second season.
32:21And then he did. And he took like a third of the touches a little bit more in some games.
32:27Now we're in Jarquez Hunter's second season. Does he exist?
32:30Exist? I'm not sure. I saw some Ronnie Rivers tweets about it from from this offseason that he's still ahead of Hunter.
32:37I really liked Hunter. So I'm hoping for him.
32:39I don't like his chances. I will say that.
32:42Yeah, I just remember because I go back and watch those, you know, behind the scenes diaries that these teams put up on YouTube.
32:49And Sean McVay was like the only player that I want on day three is Jarquez Hunter.
32:54And he's the only one that matters. And then you never know.
32:58You never know if he even is going to be in this roster heading into this year.
33:03Okay. We already said his name before, but now he's on a different team.
33:07Let's talk Rico Dattel. Now of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
33:09We know last year with the Panthers, he finished as the running back 20 and points per game, including some top five overall weeks.
33:16Now he's drafted as the running back 32. Is that fair?
33:20Because he reunites with his former head coach back in 2024 and Mike McCarthy when they both run the Cowboys.
33:26This is a fascinating one. I would say that this is one of the most even competitions going into training camp, one that we have to get right.
33:34Because last year, the Steelers were fourth in running back fantasy usage.
33:38Kenny Gainwell and Jalen Warren were both top 26 players on a per game basis.
33:42That's in half PPR. And obviously, Gainwell did a lot better in full PPR.
33:46This offensive line, I think, is pretty dang good.
33:49Their interior especially is really strong. And they at least have some upside players at tackle.
33:53And one of them is already fantastic. It's just figuring out the other one.
33:58Aaron Rodgers' history of targeting his running backs is positive.
34:01Mike McCarthy plays with a lot of pace. Now McCarthy is going to be bringing a totally different styled offense.
34:07Look back at this. He's had 24 seasons as an OC or head coach, which is like first off is like remarkable.
34:1324 of them. His teams on average have finished 11th in pass attempts, 18th in rush attempts.
34:18A lot of that is three wide receiver sets, throw the ball everywhere.
34:22I think it might be a little bit more even here.
34:25So I think in general, there is volume to be had.
34:28What is the split between them? I am leaning more towards Jalen Warren because I think that he kind of fits this
34:35like pass first three wide receivers set offense. One that obviously when you trade for Michael Pittman and draft a second round
34:41wide receiver, like I feel like that's what they're going to be gravitating to more so than last year's tight and heavy nonsense.
34:48Rico Dattel is going to be like close the game out type.
34:52But I do think that Jalen Warren is the slightly better player in general, and he's the incumbent.
34:57He's paid, paid more money, and he's been a rock star in committee role.
35:01So between the two, I definitely like Jalen Warren.
35:04And actually in that cohort next to Ramondre and Chuba Hubbard, like I think another one of these really, really strong selections.
35:10Mike McCarthy, again, their history with Rico Dattel gave him the ball 275 times back in 2024.
35:16However, that 275 touches only made Rico finishes like the running back 26 and points per game, which was, you know, much
35:22better than when he was being drafted as like the running back 40 ish.
35:26Um, so even getting that many touches here might not equal a big win.
35:30And then the contract didn't give me, you know, a ton of warm fuzzies that he's going to immediately step in and be a giant workhorse role.
35:38Uh, basically a one year, $6 million deal. That's right between Kenny gain well and what Tyler Algier.
35:44So to me, that didn't elicit huge confidence again, though, like certain games when they had really good blocking, it was extraordinary stuff.
35:50And it was all in a row, like the Miami dolphins game.
35:54He was running back one that week following game, Dallas Cowboys running back one later on at the green Bay Packers running back two.
36:01I mean, that was 206, 183 and 130 rushing yards.
36:04And sure. He ran out of steam in those games with cramps and was seen on the sideline.
36:09You would too, if you were getting the ball 30 times in those contests.
36:14Yeah. So yeah, I want to monitor the Steelers beat writers a lot as we go along.
36:19And then I also think like Aaron Rogers has some say in this, as we saw with what Kenny gain well did
36:25at the end of last season, uh, in terms of like how his role change and how was usage change and how
36:32he got all of his fancy points. Cause that's basically the exact opposite of how Rico data accumulates his fancy points.
36:38Yeah. I think it's, it, that's makes this so fascinating.
36:41I still think that Jalen Warren is more of the Aaron Rogers type of back.
36:45And I think same thing with Mike McCarthy. So Rico data is going to have a role.
36:50Like I think in like four minute drill situations, they're running out the clock.
36:54It's for sure going to be Rico data. I think at the goal line, it might lean a little bit towards Rico
37:01data, but I think on like first and tens and passing situations, I think more often than not, it's going to be
37:07Jalen Warren that Rico doubt all season with McCarthy.
37:10His competition was deuce fawn and Zeke Elliott, like the ghost of Zeke Elliott.
37:14The year before that Tony Pollard was coming off of that dislocated ankle.
37:18His efficiency was horrific and Tony Pollard was absolutely smashing in touches and Rico doubt all, uh, barely played that season.
37:24So I do like this offensive line. I think I would rather just pay the premium on Jalen Warren and actually moved
37:31Rico doubt all down in my rankings. I think in full PPR, it's going to be hard for him to get there.
37:37And I also have seen Jalen Warren. Like if he actually gets the ball a lot, he's a pretty solid player where
37:44I think I would get pretty excited if he was like the clear cut starter and they don't have a running back three.
37:51So that's, there's plenty of contingent value between both of these guys.
37:54Yeah. There's a lot of picks in between 13 between Jalen Warren and Rico data, but just three running back spots because
38:01doubt it goes to the running back 32. Jalen Warren goes as the running back 29.
38:05And he could have qualified for this conversation too, because if you go back to last season, he was the running back
38:1219 in points per game and being drafted as a running back 29.
38:16One more backfield. Uh, let's talk to Aaron Jones in the Minnesota Vikings.
38:20He finished as the running back 34 last year.
38:22He's drafted as a running back 39 this year.
38:25I understand that's a small gap, but I really wanted to shoehorn this conversation into the show because it truly might be
38:32the only time we talk about the bike Vikings backfield all summer long.
38:35I mean, again, we poke and prod and debate these 31 backfields across the league for months.
38:40One, a one B success rate, stuff rate goal line touches versus passing down all that type of stuff.
38:46And then there's the Vikings backfield and we like simply do not care.
38:50So Hayden, should we care about the Vikings backfield this year?
38:53Not that much from 2022 to 2024. That's when they had, you know, Kirk cousins, Sam Darnold, you pick your quarterback over that range.
39:00They were fourth and past yards, 26 in rush yards.
39:03They were top five in neutral pass rate. It's just what Kevin O'Connell wants to do.
39:08It's what they should do. If you're looking at their wide receivers versus the talent that they have at running back, Aaron Jones is 31 years old.
39:16He's got an injury history. He isn't like a massive guy either.
39:19So I do think the age cliff is for sure here.
39:23Last year was his lowest yards per carry season.
39:25And it was actually a career low by, by 0.3 yards, which is a pretty big drop down.
39:31So yeah, even like when they are like really good as an offense, the fantasy points at running back really doesn't get there.
39:38So there's not that much of a ceiling. And I do think that Jordan Mason, who's obviously a lot younger, more powerfully built.
39:44I do think if one of these guys was going to all of a sudden explode for like 10 touchdowns, I think
39:51it would actually be Jordan Mason, not Aaron Jones.
39:54Unfortunately for Jordan Mason, he's just such a zero as a pass catcher that even if Aaron Jones goes down, he'll get
40:00all of the carries, but he's not going to have that much receiving juice on top of it.
40:05So it's kind of one of these backfields where like there's some projected points here that could absolutely hit your flex lineup.
40:12Is there like a breakaway star out of these two guys?
40:15I'm really not convinced, especially if Kyla Murray gets in there and he's running around at the five yard line himself.
40:21Yeah. I guess if I was to make a pro case, it's that the Vikings totally rebound like they did in 2024,
40:28where they, you know, scored the ninth most points in the NFL.
40:31And in that season, Aaron Jones ranked as the running back 20 in points per game.
40:36So that would be, you know, a small ish win and would be like a running back two for you on any given week.
40:43Like it's just like, when I look at this, I mean, he and Jordan Mason, and I understand that like this often
40:50sucked last year and a lot of it came down to the quarterback.
40:54Right. But he and Jordan Mason combined for eight attempts inside the five yard line last year.
40:59And if you zoom out to the 10 yard line, they combined for 15 carries that 15 would have ranked 30th among
41:05all individual ball carriers in the NFL last year.
41:08Yikes. That's just like not enough touchdown opportunities. And as you said, Aaron Jones, 31.
41:12Now five games missed due to hip, shoulder, toe, hamstring, knees, and toes.
41:16Uh, and then all of his per season per touch numbers were worse.
41:20And man, what we talk about all the time is once you start hitting that the cliff is here and the cliff has arrived.
41:27And sometimes, uh, it's already here when the decline has already hit.
41:31And I'm kind of worried we're at that point here.
41:34It is fascinating to me. It may be telling that this team made zero, zero investment at the running back spot other than DeMond Claiborne.
41:41And do I need to ask you what your thoughts are of DeMond Claiborne, like carving out a significant role in this offense?
41:48We got 12 minutes on this channel. If you need those, uh, I don't like the chances.
41:53And just going back to that RB 20 season in 2024.
41:56Remember that Vikings team was 14 and three. They were top 10 in scoring Aaron Jones competition for touches in the backfield was Cam Akers and Ty Chandler.
42:04And he's still with all that was the RB 20.
42:07So I think Aaron Jones is like one of the easiest fades out there.
42:12Uh, and I think Jordan Mason, like possibly can like goal line himself into like eight touchdowns this season.
42:17But even then it's like really not going to be enough to like totally make a difference.
42:22Uh, I would rather have Jordan Mason straight up.
42:25I haven't that in my rankings and full PPR gets a little bit closer.
42:29Um, but I just think that his efficiency is just going to be a little bit better.
42:34Rush yards over expected plus 12% versus Aaron Jones.
42:37Aaron Jones is a negative 4%. I thought he runs just a little bit harder on film as well.
42:42Um, so yeah, I just, I just don't see it in this backfield.
42:46I think I would just rather have Kyler Murray.
42:49Kyler Murray goes right in this range. Like I think Kyler Murray would be a better pick, uh, in best ball.
42:55I think there's a chance Kyler Murray could be a top 10 fantasy quarterback this year.
43:00I just don't see the upside with these backs.
43:02And just to separate those 15 carries inside the 10 Mason had 10 of them and Aaron Jones had five.
43:08I got a message from Brad beats 84 when saying that we're going to talk about this Vikings backfield.
43:14He said, I'm a Jordan Mason bull this year simply because I believe a more efficient offense means more goals to go
43:20to temps, which should be handled by Mason eight plus touchdown upside, which is basically exactly what you said.
43:26Uh, the interesting part is like as bad as we've talked about the quarterback situation last year, the Vikings were still top
43:3320 in red zone drives and red zone touchdown success rate.
43:36So, you know, it's not like they were bottom sex, bottom 10.
43:39It was kind of league average ish area. Yeah.
43:42Um, quickly and demand Claiborne, because I do think with how bored everyone is of the Mason and Jones combo.
43:48Um, he's very slight. He has explosiveness when he gets in the open field.
43:52My big issue with the mom Claiborne is the dude was horrific in passing situations.
43:57So bad, awful hands, even on swing and flat routes, and then horrific when it came to pass protection.
44:02And so typically you want those 185 ish pound running backs.
44:06If even he was that heavy, uh, to have some air back to them.
44:10And man, he has to really improve in that area in order to like carve out a role.
44:15And so while I felt he had chances of pure explosive plays and pure straight line and even make you miss and
44:21tight space stuff that like total liability and passing down role, uh, might just minimize what he can do early.
44:27And even later in the season. Yeah. We need, we need Dwayne McBride to get back in here.
44:33Remember him? I mean, I did again, want to bring this up because this truly might be the only time we talk about the Vikings backfield.
44:40Aaron Jones is the last quote unquote starting running back to be drafted out there in fantasy.
44:45And in fact, there are five or six running back twos select ahead of the Vikings running back one at this point.
44:52There's a reason. I like that. Good call by everybody.
44:55John Henderson. We also need to bring in Ramondre Stevenson in this conversation because he's on the opposite end of this.
45:01Uh, he's drafted as running back 28 despite finishing last year's running back 21 in points per game.
45:06Again, an extended conversation in that show last week.
45:09And he want to add and close out this episode with Ramondre.
45:13Yeah. I mean, he's the biggest boy in the backfield.
45:16So he's going to get the goal line work and he was really good between the tackles and catching the ball last year.
45:22And this offense is going to be pretty sweet.
45:25Um, and he just did it this past season.
45:28What's so crazy. It wasn't like front weighted production, uh, production from week 16 through the Super bowl.
45:33If you pull up the chart on Ramondre Stevenson, like he was just lighting it up.
45:38Um, so I think there's a lot of pressure on Travion Henderson, uh, versus Ramondre Stevenson.
45:43I understand taking swings on both of these guys, but I do think that Ramondre Stevenson is not some pushover back.
45:49And I do actually like his film this past season was better in pass protection and had some big wheel route type
45:55of stuff was running hard between the tackles. Hopefully the offensive lines a little bit better.
46:00Lots of moving parts there, uh, for a reason.
46:03Yeah. Just this entire kind of tier of running backs.
46:06It's like, they just look so good in, uh, your flex in half PPR and full PPR.
46:11It's going to be a little bit different of a conversation because the wide receivers start to factor in a lot more there.
46:18But in half PPR, I mean, these are just price tags.
46:21Just, they feel so good to me. Like these seventh round running backs and Chuba or Mondra, Jalen Warren and Tony Pollard.
46:27And then you drop down to the next row and it's Blake Corum, common guy and Rico daddle.
46:33Like that is a very different feeling having one of those guys in your flex spot versus, you know, someone that's on your bench in week one.
46:41It's really that simple. Yep. I dropped a lot of these guys.
46:44Uh, Romandre was actually one of our running back sleepers last year and he qualified.
46:49He was going, I believe outside of the top one 20 overall.
46:52Uh, now he's going as 74th overall player. Uh, I say that to suggest that next week is our sleepers episodes for all positions.
46:59Uh, he doesn't qualify this year, but we'll find another one for you.
47:03That's for sure. I don't know, man. Finding running back sleepers in this economy is it's tough out there.
47:09Uh, we'll come up with some good names. Well, uh, but one staring you right in the face and Bill Krosky merit at one 22 overall.
47:16Maybe, maybe. Are we just going to skip the running back sleeper episode?
47:20Is that what you're saying here? Uh, we'll, we'll come up with some names.
47:24We'll come up with some names. I'm less confident this year in the sleepers episode.
47:29It feels like, uh, once I get to around 13 in my drafts, I'm looking at these guys.
47:34I'm like, what the hell has happened? I hear you.
47:37I hear you. Well, we'll figure it out. We'll do that next week.
47:41Thank you all for watching our episodes this week.
47:44I thank you all for subscribing and hitting a thumbs up.
47:47A light goes a long way. I mean, it helps more and more people find this video.
47:52So if you can reach, I don't know, 1200 likes on this video, that would be freaking fantastic.
47:57All right, everyone. Catch you next week. See ya.
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