Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry artwork

QB News + Week 3 Sit/Start

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

54 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 23, 2026
Published
Wed, September 23, 2026
39
Player insights
29
Players mentioned
Topics
Colston LovelandTerry McLaurinCourtland SuttonDeVonta SmithDrake LondonKyle PittsMichael Penix Jr.Stefon DiggsAlec PierceAntonio WilliamsBo NixD'Andre SwiftEvan EngramIsaiah Likely
Player analysis

Player insights

39

Alec Pierce

NegativeInjury22:33

Expected to miss several weeks after aggravating heel injury that was surgically repaired; attempting rehab rather than surgery; could return mid-season if all goes well, but timeline uncertain.

Insight page

Antonio Williams

PositiveBreakout42:00

Antonio Williams is characterized by Matthew Berry as an emerging playmaker who is not getting a ton of usage right now but will still steal opportunities from Terry McLaurin. He represents a role threat to McLaurin's target share.

Insight page

Bo Nix

NegativeProjection45:00

Matthew Berry notes that Bo Nix has not been the version seen in the past two seasons, citing possible reasons including a new play caller and tough matchups in the first two weeks. This suggests Nix's early-season performance has been disappointing relative to expectations, which impacts the fantasy value of his pass catchers like Cortland Sutton and Jalen Waddell.

Insight page

Colston Loveland

NegativeBust47:28

Matthew Berry had Colston Loveland as his number three wide receiver and runner-up for ride-or-die pick heading into 2026, but through two games he has delivered zero production on five targets (one catch total), making him one of the most disappointing early-season picks. Despite a 89% route rate in week one and a 100 utilization score in his final four games as a rookie last year, Loveland has failed to convert opportunity into fantasy points; now facing the Eagles (number one in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends) with Case Keenum at quarterback (described as more of a quarterback's coach than an actual NFL quarterback), the outlook is dire. Berry acknowledges he looks "like a moron" and "idiot" on the pick but is reluctantly keeping Loveland at tight end 12 (lowest end of TE1) and likely starting him this week, though he notes "we have to start to see something soon."

Insight page
NegativeBust48:03

Matthew Berry begins to acknowledge a preseason miss on Colston Loveland, indicating he must 'completely eat it' on this player. The transcript cuts off before the full explanation, but Berry's tone suggests Loveland has underperformed his preseason expectations.

Insight page
PositiveProjection50:49

Matthew Berry ranks Loveland at tight end 12 (low-end TE1) and is reluctantly starting him in Week 3 despite poor early production (0 catches in Week 1, 1 catch for 3 yards in Week 2). Berry's case: Loveland leads the Bears in routes run and has seen 40% of the team's end zone targets; he should have scored in Week 1 but didn't. Against Philadelphia's secondary (Cooper DeJean, Quinone Mitchell), there's potential for increased targeting. Berry notes that if you drafted Loveland in the third or fourth round, you likely don't have a better alternative at tight end with more upside, making him a reluctant start despite the ugly early results and Monday night road game context.

Insight page

Courtland Sutton

NegativeBust44:05

Matthew Berry is closing out on Cortland Sutton easily, using a metaphor that Sutton is like a dive bar from college that seemed great at the time but now looks like a dump upon revisiting. Despite the Broncos offense coming back to life last week, Sutton is no longer a viable fantasy option.

Insight page
PositiveBust44:23

Matthew Berry compares Sutton to a college dive bar that seemed great in memory but is now disappointing; he was on Berry's preseason hate list due to volume and touchdown dependency. Sutton has fallen from previous years' valuation due to Jalen Waddell being a significant upgrade as the Broncos' number one receiver, leaving insufficient offensive room for a strong number two. Sutton is below 20% target share in both games this season and ranks wide receiver 53 in utilization through two weeks. Berry notes Sutton is on the wrong side of 30 with diminishing skills, and Sean Payton didn't recommend drafting him to his wife despite recommending Waddell. Berry ranks Sutton at wide receiver 45, fading him harder than his co-Matthew Berry.

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D'Andre Swift

NegativeProjection24:00

Still likely to be started despite Bagent/Keenum situation and downgrade from Caleb Williams; part of core Bears players to use regardless of QB.

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DeVonta Smith

PositiveBreakout47:27

Matthew Berry claims victory lapping on Devontae Smith, whom he identified as his 'ride or die' in the preseason. This indicates Smith has performed well to date, validating Berry's preseason conviction and ranking.

Insight page
PositiveBreakout47:28

Matthew Berry identifies Devontae Smith as one of his successful preseason picks (his "ride or die"), alongside Ken Walker, whom he was significantly higher on than consensus (had him as a top eight overall player when consensus had him as a second rounder). Berry is doing "victory lapping" on these picks, indicating strong early-season performance and validation of his preseason positioning.

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Drake London

PositiveRole20:00

Matthew Berry noted that Drake London and Kyle Pitts should benefit from Michael Pennix being named the Falcons week three starter, as Pennix is an upgrade over Cooper Rush at quarterback.

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NegativeProjection22:00

Drafted as top 12, top 8 wide receiver in offseason; now ranked around WR 14-16, downgraded relative to preseason expectations even though he should still be started this week with Pennix returning.

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Evan Engram

NegativeRole46:38

Matthew Berry notes that Evan Ingram is seeing some usage in the Broncos' pass-catcher-by-committee approach outside of Jalen Waddell, alongside Marvin Mims and Troy Franklin. This indicates Ingram has a role in the offense but is part of a distributed target share.

Insight page

Isaiah Likely

PositiveRole16:00

Matthew Berry noted that there appeared to be a connection between Jameis Winston and Giants tight end Isaiah Likely, projecting Likely as a low-end tight end one under Winston's leadership.

Insight page

Jameis Winston

PositiveRole14:00

With Jackson Dart likely out, Jameis Winston will take over as the Giants starting quarterback. Matthew Friedman noted that in Fantasy Life's projection model, the Giants offense with Dart is rated only 1.75 points per game better than with Winston, making Winston a viable option. Berry noted Winston is one of the best backups in the league with nine starts over the last three seasons averaging over 18 fantasy points per game. Berry expects more passing volume with Winston due to his YOLO effect, though the offense will be less efficient than under Dart. Berry also expects Winston to throw to running backs more than Dart would.

Insight page

Jameson Williams

PositiveProjection32:30

Ranked WR 27; keeping open despite two receptions for 33 yards last week; three drops this season (not typical); Lions have top-5 implied team total week 3; unpredictable game-to-game but massive upside when he hits (120 yards, 2 TDs); must start all the time or never start; not matchup dependent; expect big play this week against below-average Jets secondary.

Insight page

Jeremiyah Love

PositiveProjection30:00

Third overall pick; ranked RB 22; reluctantly keeping open but not starting this week; on road as underdog against 49ers defense; Tyler Algier limits workload; pass-heavy script expected; however, double-digit target share both games (30% of routes), leads team in goal-line/red-zone rush attempts, passing-down back role provides flex upside in PPR.

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Josh Downs

PositiveRole23:48

High-end WR3 while Pierce is out; benefits from increased target share and role concentration in Colts offense alongside Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren.

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Justin Herbert

NegativeProjection24:48

Ranked QB 12-14 this week; looking to bench if better option available; Chargers offense unimpressive under new coordinator; back-to-back 26-14 home losses to inferior opponents; traveling cross-country as 7-point underdogs to Bills with extra rest and home-field advantage; tough matchup despite some junk-time upside.

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Kyle Pitts

PositiveRole20:00

Matthew Berry noted that Kyle Pitts and Drake London should benefit from Michael Pennix being named the Falcons week three starter, as Pennix is an upgrade over Cooper Rush at quarterback.

Insight page
NegativeProjection21:36

Borderline top-12 tight end this week; likely to be started despite Pennix's rust, though downgraded from preseason expectations.

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Kyler Murray

PositiveInjury18:00

Kyler Murray cleared the concussion protocol and will start week three for the Vikings against the Buccaneers. Matthew Berry has him ranked QB14 and Matthew Friedman has him at QB13. Berry noted he wants to see how Murray performs in his first full game with Minnesota before ranking him higher, but expects him to finish the week as a top-12 quarterback. Friedman noted that with Carson Wentz averaging over eight yards per attempt adjusted in the Vikings offense, any quarterback other than JJ McCarthy should look competent. Friedman expects Murray to be ranked in the 8-10 range next week as he gets more comfortable with the team.

Insight page

Luther Burden

NegativeProjection24:00

Still likely to be started despite Bagent/Keenum situation and downgrade from Caleb Williams; part of core Bears receivers to play regardless of QB.

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MarShawn Lloyd

NegativeProjection31:00

Ranked RB 38; closing tab entirely; three-headed RB committee on pass-heavy team; Caleb Johnson led team in rush attempts week 2; Chris Brooks has same red-zone touches as Lloyd; playing under 40% snaps, averaging 10 touches per game; Falcons allowing just 3.3 yards per carry; avoid entire backfield.

Insight page

Marvin Mims

NegativeRole46:38

Matthew Berry notes that Marvin Mims is seeing some usage in the Broncos' pass-catcher-by-committee approach outside of Jalen Waddell, alongside Troy Franklin and Evan Ingram. This indicates Mims has a role in the offense but is part of a distributed target share.

Insight page

Michael Penix Jr.

NegativeRole20:00

Michael Pennix has been named the Falcons week three starter for Thursday night against the Packers. Matthew Berry noted this is good news for Drake London and Kyle Pitts. However, Matthew Friedman cautioned that Pennix is coming back from a significant season-ending knee injury suffered last year and did not get the benefit of full training camp, so rust should be expected. Friedman expects Pennix to be a diminished version of himself in his first start back from injury, though the offense should still improve relative to Cooper Rush and the past two weeks.

Insight page
NegativeProjection20:48

First game back from significant season-ending knee injury without full training camp; expect diminished version of himself in first start back from injury with some rust, though offense should improve relative to Cooper Rush.

Insight page

Pat Bryant

NegativeRole46:04

Matthew Berry suggests Pat Bryant as a potential Broncos pass catcher option for the rest of the season, positioning him as an alternative to Cortland Sutton in a pass-catcher-by-committee offense outside of Jalen Waddell. This indicates Bryant has some role in the Broncos' passing game.

Insight page

Quinshon Judkins

PositiveRole27:00

79% of Browns RB touches through two weeks; ranked RB 19-25; higher floor this week with home-field advantage against Panthers; 76 utilization score; increased passing game involvement (13.5% target share vs. 7.5% last year); comfortable starting in guillotine leagues; Panthers allowing 173+ rushing yards per game and 6+ yards per carry.

Insight page

Stefon Diggs

PositiveRole41:12

Stefan Diggs, despite being on the Commanders for only two weeks, already looks like the number one wide receiver ahead of Terry McLaurin. Matthew Berry notes that Diggs, now 33 years old and on his fourth team in four years, continues to manage jumping from team to team while looking like a slightly above-average professional who steals opportunities from other receivers.

Insight page
PositiveProjection43:43

Stefan Diggs has three touchdowns in two games and is likely to see junk time opportunities in Week 3 against Seattle. Vegas projects the Commanders to score at least two touchdowns, and there's a decent chance Diggs gets one of them, though the matchup is not ideal.

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Terry McLaurin

PositiveProjection35:00

Closing out this week; 25% target share with Marcus Mariota; backup QB situation; offensive play caller new to role; offense not looking as expected; Stefan Diggs (33 years old, fourth team in four years) stealing opportunities from other receivers.

Insight page
PositiveRole41:12

Matthew Berry is closing out on McLaurin due to role dilution: backup quarterback (Marcus Mariota), new offensive play caller, Stefan Diggs already looking like the number one wide receiver after just two weeks on the team, and Antonio Williams emerging as a playmaker who will steal opportunities. McLaurin no longer has the exclusive target share he once did.

Insight page
NegativeMatchup43:03

Matthew Berry ranks McLaurin at wide receiver 34, outside the top 30, primarily due to the Week 3 matchup against Seattle. The Seahawks allow the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers through two games, with receivers averaging under 8 yards per reception (lowest in NFL). The Commanders have the lowest implied team total in Week 3 at 17 points, making the entire offense unattractive.

Insight page

Theo Johnson

NegativeUsage14:00

Matthew Berry criticized Jameis Winston's performance on Monday night, specifically calling out a missed wide-open pass to Theo Johnson in the first half, suggesting Winston's accuracy and decision-making were problematic in that game.

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Troy Franklin

NegativeRole46:38

Matthew Berry notes that Troy Franklin is seeing some usage in the Broncos' pass-catcher-by-committee approach outside of Jalen Waddell, alongside Marvin Mims and Evan Ingram. This indicates Franklin has a role in the offense but is part of a distributed target share.

Insight page

Tyler Warren

PositiveRole23:48

Drafted as top-5 fantasy tight end; feel better about floor and upside with Pierce out; expect more usage in concentrated Colts passing game.

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Tyson Bagent

NegativeInjury23:12

Placed in concussion protocol; third-string QB Case Keenum would replace him; neither should be started in spot-start against Eagles; downgrade all Bears receivers regardless of QB.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

640
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0:23It's 9 a.m. on the East Coast, but hell, it is 5 o'clock somewhere, so you know what?
0:28It's early, but the Happy Hour bar is open.
0:31Maybe it never closed. Brothers and sisters, friends of the revolution, my name is Matthew Berry, your friendly neighborhood bartender.
0:37Also, I am, in fact, a cheer dad. That's right.
0:40It is what I do. It is who I am.
0:43It is my existence. And great show coming up for you today.
0:47Very excited about it. But it's a Fantasy Life Wednesday, as my friend Matthew Friedman will be joining me momentarily.
0:53But before we get there, and we're going to talk about, we've got a bunch of news, a lot of quarterback news, as you can imagine.
1:01And all the tough start-sit questions you might have for week number three.
1:05It's another edition of Keep It Open or Close It Out here at the Happy Hour bar.
1:11But before I get there, before I talk about that, I want to, you know what?
1:16And Matthew Friedman, why don't we bring you in right here?
1:19You can share in this excitement. Here you go.
1:22You are wearing your dad hat. I am wearing my cheer dad t-shirt as you and I, both fathers, both important jobs,
1:29both have physical proof that you and I have at least had sex once.
1:33So it's exciting for us. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right.
1:36I can't hear you, Mr. Friedman. Don't know what's going on with your audio there.
1:41So I'm sure we'll get that. That's on me.
1:44Oh, is that on you? All right. I had myself muted so that when I was typing during your intro, no one could hear.
1:51But yes, copulation has occurred at least once. We actually have physical proof of that and thrilled to be on a Wednesday edition of the show with you.
2:00Maybe if I repeat Wednesdays, we start to call it, I don't know, like wet blanket Wednesdays.
2:05I don't know. I'm just putting it out there.
2:08We'll see what the Discord says. Something to think about there.
2:11The discount is going crazy as always. The regulars are always on the crew.
2:16Good to see them. And so I'm glad you brought up the Discord.
2:20And we're going to get it to, but this is important.
2:23This is a big moment for me. It's important that you brought up the Discord because the Discord is super important.
2:30Please, if you are a fan of the show, if you're listening to this voice, if you're watching it later on YouTube,
2:36wherever you consume Happy Hour, I would love for you to please join our Discord.
2:41If you go to YouTube and look at the description of the article, there is a link to join our Discord.
2:48I'll also pin it to my social media profile on Twitter, at MatthewBerryTMR as well.
2:52So please join it. It's free to join the Fantasy Football Happy Hour Discord.
2:57But if you're listening to it on a podcast right now, if you're listening to it on Apple or Spotify or wherever
3:03you get your podcast, I'll put it up on my, it'll be a tweet that I send out today as well.
3:10But you can find it if you go to Discord, you look for Fantasy Football Happy Hour.
3:15Or again, just go to YouTube, search up the Matthew Berry YouTube channel, look at the description of any one of our
3:22shows, and the Discord link is in there as well.
3:25Here's why I want you to join the Discord.
3:28Because the Discord is going to be a big part of a brand new show called Pre-Game with Matthew Berry.
3:34The news came out this morning, and I'm going to Roku.
3:38I'm taking my talents to the Roku channel. Very excited about it.
3:41So there's going to be a daily show starting on Monday.
3:45Monday, the 28th, Pre-Game with Matthew Berry. They threw my name in the title.
3:49It's unbelievable. Pre-Game with Matthew Berry, 12 to 2 p.m.
3:52Eastern, Monday through Friday on the Roku channel, Roku Sports.
3:55It is free to get if you have a Roku TV.
3:59And by the way, over half the people in America have a Roku TV set.
4:03It's obviously there, right? But if you don't have a Roku TV set, you can get the Roku channel.
4:09The Roku channel is an app on pretty much every smart TV.
4:13But if not, you can also download it. You can download it.
4:17As Ryan Oswald says, oh, yeah, congrats, Sir Berry.
4:20Thank you, Ryan. I'm so appreciative of it. It's going to take part.
4:24I mean, like, similar to this. So you're going to see an upgraded bar set as well.
4:29It's going to be two hours, 12 to 2 p.m.
4:32Eastern. And what's cool is, Friedman, is I'm going to get to do the show candidly that I've always wanted.
4:38Like, as you know, as Mike Miranda says, yes, I have Roku.
4:42Everyone has Roku. It's unbelievable. And it is free to watch.
4:45This is what's most important. We'll still do clips on YouTube, right?
4:49You'll still be able to get the podcast on.
4:52You'll still be able to get the podcast wherever you get your podcast.
4:56But it's going to be a two-hour show. And basically, it's going to be, you know, when I was doing my show
5:03previously, I mean, you guys know this. I would try to sneak in pop culture.
5:07I would try to sneak in general sports talk.
5:10I would obviously do, you know, fantasy and betting.
5:13But, you know, there's more to it than that.
5:16I would do some celebrity interviews as well. So now I don't have to sneak that anymore.
5:21Now I can just do that as the show.
5:24So it's a two-hour show. First hour is going to be general sports talk.
5:28We're going to talk about the biggest stories in sports and also the dumbest, the smallest and the dumbest and the pettiest stories in sports.
5:36It's going to be nonsense. We will have celebrity and athlete interviews.
5:40We will do pop culture. We will do lots of fun stuff.
5:43Maybe I'll bring back Maddie's Dating Advice Corner. And then the second hour will be all about fantasy.
5:49Yeah, Common Man STL says one-hour fantasy, one-hour ankles.
5:52Pretty much, that's basically it. Good call, Common Man.
5:55And so that's what it's going to be. We're still working out who's going to be on the show with me.
6:01I'm very excited about who it is, but some deals have to get finalized.
6:05So that'll be coming out in the next day or two about who's going to be on the show with me.
6:12But it'll be familiar faces and people that I think everyone's excited about, Friedman.
6:16You know me. You'll be on the show. All the fantasy life talent will be on the show, but it's also going
6:23to be some people that you guys are familiar with and that you'll really love.
6:28And so that'll be the show. And so the one difference between what we're doing now and what we're doing on Roku
6:35is that we're no longer to be live on YouTube.
6:38Understandably, Roku wants people to watch the show live on Roku.
6:41Totally get that. Totally appreciate it. There will still be clips of the show on the YouTube channel.
6:47You'll still be able to consume a lot of the show.
6:50But in essence, if you want to watch it live, like the people are right now, if you want to comment on
6:57the show, the way to do it will be through the Discord and both through the Discord and obviously if you want
7:04to tweet the show or tweet at me. Basically tweet at me for right now.
7:08We don't actually have a channel for the show.
7:11But that's kind of the deal. So that's why I want you to join the Discord here because I want all the regulars to chime in.
7:19I want you guys to still be a big, huge part of the show like you have been throughout all this time together.
7:26And oh, by the way, this show isn't going away.
7:29There is still going to be a fantasy football happy hour.
7:33It's just going to be at the moment. It's just going to be a podcast only, which you can hear on, again,
7:40Apple, Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts. That'll be the second hour of the Roku show, similar to what we used to do at NBC.
7:47Or you'll be able to, again, watch clips on social media, on YouTube, maybe some other places as well.
7:53So that's my big news, Friedman. I could not be more excited about it.
7:58But it's really cool that Roku is giving me my own show, again, 12 to 2 p.m.
8:03Eastern every single day. And then I think there's going to be like a, there's actually going to be a pregame with Matthew Berry channel.
8:11So it's going to be running on a loop, you know, like so you can catch it whenever you want on demand on the Roku channel.
8:19Very excited about it. Anyway, so that's my big news.
8:22That's why we're a little bit late this morning because the news broke this morning.
8:27Shout out to The Athletic and The New York Times that broke the story.
8:31They always have everything first. Yeah, I mean, it's an awesome development.
8:35The two-hour format is great because it really gives you the opportunity to stretch your legs, to talk about all of the things that you want to.
8:43The one thing that worried me was you said that people on the show were going to be people that other people would be excited about.
8:51I don't know if there's room for me on that show, just to be honest, the way you described it.
8:57No, no, no. We love to hate you, Friedman.
9:00We love to hate you. Friedman's fades, of course.
9:03You are somebody, you are the bearer of bad news.
9:06You are the bringer of doom. You are the upside down smile.
9:10You're smiling now, but usually you're not smiling. You are the fadler if you were.
9:14But let's get into actual football news now because we've talked about it.
9:18But I'm very excited about it. Monday, and we'll be talking about it a lot between now and obviously Monday, and it'll come up quite a bit.
9:27But anyway, appreciate everyone's patience as we sort of figured it out.
9:31But the last thing I'll say about the Roku show, and then we'll shut up and we'll actually get to fantasy football.
9:37The other thing that's very cool about this is you guys know, is if anyone that's kind of followed my career, you
9:44know, whether it was from ESPN to NBC, now to on my own or with Fantasy Life, is that I've always had this entrepreneurial bent.
9:52I've always kind of wanted to own my own thing, be my own boss.
9:56And that's no disrespect to ESPN. Awesome company. Had an amazing 15 years there.
10:01Love all my friends at ESPN. No disrespect to NBC Sports.
10:04Love and miss all my friends at NBC. They were great to me.
10:08Nothing bad to say about ESPN or NBC ever.
10:11They are, you know, they made me who I am.
10:14I will be forever grateful and in debt to both those companies for the rest of my life.
10:20But, you know, I have an entrepreneurial bent. I kind of, it's like I wrote in my preseason, love, hate on fantasylife.com
10:26company, man, that I wanted to go on my own.
10:30So this show, this pregame with Matthew Berry show is owned and produced by Fantasy Life and by me.
10:35Like we're not, I don't, I mean, it's being distributed by Roku and the audio version is obviously being distributed by my friends at Odyssey.
10:43So love being in partnership with both those companies.
10:46And by the way, we have a presenting sponsor.
10:49I should give out some love here. We have, we're a presenting sponsor of the Roku show.
10:54It is Lily. Lily is the presenting sponsor of the Roku show.
10:58So thank you to our friends at Lily for supporting that.
11:01But anyway, just it was important to me to own my own thing.
11:05And so anyway, you know, I'm hopeful that it's a huge hit, but if it's failure, it's also on me, right?
11:12At least I don't, I can't blame anyone else.
11:15It's all on me. It's me and the team that have assembled at Fantasy Life and, you know, Producer Damien, Producer Ed,
11:21all the, all the usuals along, alongside me, but I'm very excited about it, Friedman.
11:26So just so you know, I wanted to bring up that point because I think that's, that's important.
11:32It's one of the reasons why I partner with Roku is because they, and Odyssey, honestly, both companies, why they allowed me
11:38the opportunity to do this, to have ownership. All right, time now for week three.
11:43We have a bunch of start and sits. It's gonna be another episode of Keep It Open and Close It Out, but
11:50like, it's good to have you, you know, Mr.
11:53Wet Blanket, Mr. Fade, because we've got some bad news and it starts with Jackson Dart.
11:58After the show aired yesterday, we got this news from Adam Schefter, quote, breaking further testing today, revealed Giants quarterback Jackson Dart's knee injury worse than initially thought.
12:06And the team and Dart now are fearing the possibility, facing the possibility of seizing ending knee surgery.
12:12Sources tell ESPN of all the quarterback injuries suffered in week two.
12:16Dart is turning out to easily be the most significant.
12:19We don't know for a fact, again, it's, it's whatever, it's, it's 920 on the East Coast AM Eastern.
12:25So there's been no official news that he's out for the year, but I think we have to operate like that's what's
12:32gonna happen because that's a pretty damning report from Adam Schefter here.
12:35And so I'm curious, Friedman, how, I assume it's gonna be all Jameis Winston.
12:40They'll probably sign a veteran. You know, Brandon Allen, I saw out there, you know, that he got, he got mentioned in the mix as well.
12:48There's some, there's some, you know, familiarity there with some of the guys on the, some of the coaches on the staff there in New York.
12:56But what say you about this Giants offense under Jameis Winston?
12:59It will be, I mean, the Jameis Winston experience, you know, the highs and the lows.
13:04And I will say there was a lot of enthusiasm for Jackson Dart entering this season.
13:09You know, people expecting him to take that second year leap.
13:13The upside was certainly there with him, but I also will say the upside really hasn't been proven yet.
13:18And so it was a projection. You know, people were, were ranking him and drafting him according to his upside.
13:25But in terms of what he has actually done or what we should reasonably expect out of a first round quarterback, it's
13:31really not significantly higher than Jameis Winston. In the game model, the projection model that we have at Fantasy Life, we have
13:38Jackson Dart rated 1.75 points ahead of Jameis Winston.
13:41So, you know, the offense with Dart at quarterback, we would expect to be 1.75 points per game better than when Jameis Winston is there.
13:49That's significant, but it's not massive. But it doesn't sound significant.
13:52I think to people that aren't like in the weeds on betting and doing the projections the way you do, it doesn't sound significant.
14:00It's, I mean, it's on the lower end from the drop-off from a starter to a backup because Jameis is one of
14:07the best backups in the league and Dart is still one of the most unproven starting quarterbacks in the league.
14:13So the potential- There are a few people out there, I can hear them in the chat already.
14:18Friedman, you say Jameis Winston is one of the best backups in the league.
14:23Did you watch Monday night? Did you watch him miss a wide open Theo Johnson?
14:27Did you watch him tell himself after two quarters, I gotta get ready?
14:31Like, dude, you've been in the game for half, for two quarters.
14:35What do you mean you gotta get ready? Like, what's going on, Jameis Winston?
14:39Are you saying, like, and this is what I think you're saying, and I agree with you, by the way, that it
14:46is one thing to, on a week where you probably didn't get very many reps on the road in LA facing that
14:53defense is different than what we expect to see this week for, you know, for the Giants against Tennessee after a full
15:00week of Matt Nagy and his staff putting together a, putting together a program, you know, a game plan that will, that
15:07will cater to what Jameis does well and avoid what he doesn't do well.
15:11Jax and Dart, obviously a very different quarterback than Jameis Winston.
15:15So I'm with you, which is, I think this is what you're saying, that I think, I think we'll see a better version of Jameis.
15:22Not that it's gonna be the ups and downs still, but like, he's not gonna be the train wreck he was on Monday night.
15:30Like, he'll get a full week of practice with the ones and they'll have a better game plan against a much better opponent.
15:37Yes, fully agree. In any given week, Jameis Winston can go out there and throw 300 yards and four touchdowns or 300 yards and four interceptions.
15:45You never know which version of Jameis you're gonna get, but you do know that he's going to be willing to air it out.
15:52And to your point, when he has the full week to prepare, it is very different than any backup coming into the
15:59game with no game plan catered for him. So fully agree on that.
16:03But in terms of a guy who has a number of starts on his resume, has had some good tape, Jameis Winston
16:10is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league.
16:13We at least know what we're getting out of him.
16:16Yeah. And nine starts over the last three seasons, averaging over 18 fantasy points per game.
16:21I actually think he's a more viable starter streamer this week, despite what we saw on Monday night, versus some of the other people.
16:29If you're trying to replace Caleb Williams, like, I like him better than the Bears guys.
16:34I like him better than Marcus Mariota against Seattle.
16:36We'll get to all those guys in a minute here.
16:40Very quickly. I think, certainly, I think there'll be more passing volume with Jameis, because he's got a YOLO effect to him.
16:46I think the offense won't be as efficient as it does under Dart.
16:50I think neighbors moves to kind of a low end wide receiver too.
16:54I think Likely is still a low end tight end one.
16:58Again, seemed like there was a little bit of a connection there between Winston and, and Isaiah Likely.
17:03And then finally, I think Cam Skatagaboo becomes a high end flex play here.
17:08My expectation here is that probably lean on the running game a little bit more with Winston under center.
17:14But I also think the running game isn't as efficient because you don't have the threat of Dart taking off.
17:20Winston is such a pure pocket passer. However, Winston should throw to the running backs more than Dart would, who's ready to take off.
17:27But I think with an increase in the running game, again, we've seen some Najee Harris.
17:32We see Devin Singletary out there. We see a little bit of Tyrone Tracy.
17:37So again, Skatagoo's the giants running back you want, but it feels like he's more ahead of a committee than he is the clear RB1.
17:44So he's a high end flex to me. 35 minutes left here, Friedman.
17:48We got a lot to get to. So I'm just going to whip through some of these other headlines real quickly.
17:55Kyler Murray has cleared the concussion protocol. As you see the note here from Tom Pelissero, he is going to start week three for the Vikings.
18:03Against the Buccaneers. Sources tell the ringer and Netflix sports.
18:06That's from Tom Pelissero. I have, I have Kyler at quarterback 14.
18:10Friedman, you have a QB 13. Feels like, look, I'm not really scared of the Bucs.
18:15I mean, after Deshaun Watson looked decent against them, right?
18:18In a, in a middle of a monsoon, but I kind of want to, I want to see it.
18:24We haven't seen Kyler Murray in the Vikings yet.
18:27He got injured so early in week one. I kind of, ideally I'm at 14 because it's like, if you have to
18:33use them high end QB two, probably can get away with it.
18:37But in an ideal world, you would wait and see how he looks in Minnesota.
18:42Yeah. With our rankings. I think we're saying the exact same thing, right?
18:46He's right on the cusp of fantasy viability, probably finishes the week as a top 12 quarterback.
18:51But again, going to be just a little bit cautious because it is Kyler in his first full game with the team.
18:58That said, what we saw out of Carson Wentz in general, averaging over eight yards is an average yards per attempt adjusted.
19:05I mean, basically any quarterback who is not JJ McCarthy, we kind of have to assume is going to look at least competent within this offense.
19:13So Vikings two and oh, Kyler with the best surrounding cast he's ever had.
19:17I feel like next week, we're probably going to be ranking him closer to the eight to 10 range than the 13 to 14 range right now.
19:26I agree. G'day. I'm Justin Wolfers, host of the Platypus Economics Podcast.
19:29If there's one thing I've learned from a career teaching economics, it's that your life is shaped by economic currents you'll never see.
19:37A single price tag can explain things a thousand experts can't.
19:40People who understand economics, they make better decisions in their careers, their finances, their relationships in their communities.
19:46And I want that for you. Listen to and follow Platypus Economics available now, wherever you get your podcasts.
19:51That sound you heard was fantasy managers of Drake London and Kyle Pitts rejoicing around the world because Michael Pennitz has been named the Falcons week three starter.
20:00This is the Thursday night game against the Packers Friedman.
20:03You are somebody that among the many things you do for us at Fantasy Life and fantasylife.com, you do a bunch of
20:10our projections, you do a bunch of our betting work as well.
20:14Over the last six years, no one, literally no one has been more accurate in NFL draft prognostication than Matthew Friedman.
20:20This is all based on independent competition. By the way, over the last six years, Friedman, you are number one in the industry.
20:27So I'm curious, how did your projections change for Drake London and Kyle Pitts when you found out Michael Pennix was going to be the starter on Thursday?
20:36None of us are starting Pennix. Like you, I'm at QB 28, I'm at QB 30.
20:41Um, but this should be good news for the Falcons.
20:44We do care about. Yeah, it, it is good news in theory.
20:48I will say as in general, and this kind of goes back to the conversation on dart versus Winston, right?
20:54Context on this matters. This is his first game coming back from a pretty significant season ending knee injury.
21:00He suffered last year. He didn't really get the benefit of kind of full training camp.
21:05So we should expect there to be some rust.
21:08So in, in general, yes, relative to Cooper rush relative to what we have seen the past two weeks, this offense should be better.
21:15I would though still expect Michael Pennix to be a diminished version of himself in his first start back from injury.
21:22So an improvement certainly, but yeah, but where this offense will be in a couple of weeks.
21:27Sure. Sure. I completely agree with all that, but for our purposes, does it matter?
21:32And by that, I mean, like if you have Drake London, you're starting Drake London.
21:36If you have Kyle Pitts, chances are, you probably don't have a better tight end.
21:41He's more of a borderline guy, but you're obviously starting Bijan.
21:44I think you have to start Drake London if you got him.
21:48And I think you're likely, no pun intended, but you're likely starting Kyle Pitts as a top 12 ish tight end tonight.
21:55Or Thursday night, I should say. Yes. I think all of that is fair, but I would say let's still place it
22:02in context relative to, let's say Drake London drafted as a top 12, top eight wide receiver.
22:07Sure. In the off season right now, I think I have around like wide receiver, 14 wide receiver, 16, something like that.
22:14So I'm still downgrading him a little bit relative to the expectations we had even just a month ago.
22:20Yeah, no, I agree with that. I'm more as a lower end wide receiver too this week, but I do think you're still starting him.
22:28One last wide receiver piece of news here, Alec Pierce, expected to miss several weeks here.
22:33As you see the note here from Ian Rappaport, Colt star Alec Pierce, who aggravated a heel injury that was surgically repaired,
22:39will attempt to rehab the ailment rather than have surgery.
22:42Sources say Pierce is slated to be out several weeks while he heals, but it all goes well.
22:48He could return mid-season. Could in mid-season, important words in that statement here, as a result of this news, the Colts have signed Darius Slayton.
22:56But to me, all this means is more Josh Downs.
22:59You know, there'll be some more Keenan Allen. Laquan Treadwell rides again.
23:03Ashton Doolin. But I think Downs is a high end wide receiver three while Pierce is out.
23:08I expect more Tyler Warren, who was drafted as a top five fantasy Titan, but you feel better about his floor and his upside with Pierce out.
23:16You'll see some more Keenan Allen. But to me, I think it's going to be concentrated.
23:21The Colts you're going to want are Downs, Warren, and obviously Jonathan Taylor.
23:25So I think that's interesting. Last thing here real quickly, before we get to keep it open or close it out, Friedman,
23:32because I want to get to these conversations, which I think more importantly, Tyson Bagent, who we thought was going to replace
23:39Caleb Williams, is placed in the concussion protocol. Their third string quarterback is Case Keenum.
23:44This game is Monday night, so we won't know.
23:46I don't think it truly matters. I prefer Bagent to Case Keenum.
23:50It's been a while since he's played. And, you know, Bagent's a little bit more mobile.
23:55But you're not starting either of these guys in a spot start against the Eagles.
24:00And you're downgrading everyone, regardless of who's playing quarterback, from Caleb Williams against the Eagles.
24:04You're still probably starting, you're still probably starting Luther Burden and DeAndre Swift.
24:08We'll get to Colston Loveland a little bit later in the show.
24:12So let's get now to keep it open or close it out here at the Happy Hour Bar.
24:18As always, the premise is the same. Are we keeping these guys open?
24:22Are we keeping the tab open? Or are we closing it out?
24:26And I want to start with Mr. Madison Beard, Justin Herbert, who is somebody that was on my preseason love list.
24:32I was all in on the Chargers offense, Friedman, and I was wrong.
24:36Wrong, wrong, wrong. Through two games against good matchups, they've been bad.
24:40The Chargers have been bad, and Justin Herbert has been bad.
24:43But they played Buffalo. So where are you on Justin Herbert this week?
24:47You know, I hate to say, I am probably looking to bench Justin Herbert if I have.
24:53If I have a, I mean, I would hope I would have a better option because what we have seen, and I'm
24:59not necessarily blaming Justin Herbert, but what we have seen out of this new offense, new offensive coordinator, I've been really unimpressed by.
25:06And let's put all this in contact. The Chargers are coming off of back-to-back 26-14 home losses against vastly inferior opponents.
25:13And now they're traveling across the country. They're underdogs of around seven points.
25:17They're traveling for a 1 p.m. Eastern game, an early game, given that they're on a West Coast, against a Bills team
25:24that has three extra days of rest and is at home for a second straight game.
25:29All of that is just absolutely terrible for the Chargers.
25:32And we have to downgrade the Chargers anyway because of what we have seen over the past two weeks.
25:38So, I mean, there's hope for Justin Herbert, but this week, I think it is an incredibly tough matchup and a very hard spot.
25:45So, I understand all that. You have me at QB 14.
25:49I'm going to keep it open. I'm going to keep it open.
25:52As Scott McClory says, Herbert has been killing all of us and the Chargers are trash.
25:57Both those statements might very well be true. Herbert has been killing us.
26:01There's no question about it. The Chargers may or may not be trash, but certainly early returns seem like maybe.
26:08But I have two words for you, Matthew Friedman, two words only.
26:11Junk time. The Buffalo is allowing 273 passing yards per game through two weeks.
26:16That's the third most in the NFL, right? We expect Josh Allen, who's as hot as any quarterback in the NFL, proud Fantasy Life investor Josh Allen.
26:24We expect him to your point. They've had extra days to prepare.
26:28They're at home. The offense is humming. But the over-under in this game, 50 and a half.
26:33That is the second highest game total in week three as we sit here on Wednesday morning.
26:38And so the Bills, as I said, giving up the third most passing yards per game.
26:43They've allowed passing touchdowns at the fifth highest rate.
26:46I agree with you. I think they're touchdown favorites and they probably cover the seven.
26:51But what I'm telling you, Friedman, is that I do think that, again, being big underdogs, that we can put up some
26:58fantasy points here for Justin Herbert, whether it's with his legs, whether it's his arm.
27:02Again, I'm reluctantly keeping him open. He's a low in QB one for me, but I am keeping it omit on Justin Herbert.
27:09I'm squinting, but he is my QB 12 this week.
27:13There's signs of life, Friedman. And by the way, and if you're a Chargers fan, if you want to yell at Matthew
27:19Friedman, he is at Matt F the Oracle on X.
27:22So feel free to yell at him there. He enjoys it.
27:26There's signs of life in Cleveland. You know, they're one and one.
27:30They went into Tampa Bay. They won. And through two weeks, Quinshawn Judkins has seen 79% of the Browns running back touches.
27:36But it's the Browns. He's not really involved in the passing game that much.
27:41Where are you on Quinshawn Judkins with Deshawn Watson making another start against a better than people thought they would be Carolina Panthers defense?
27:48So I have him this week. I believe around RB 25.
27:52You're a little bit higher at RB 19. So you could say like, I have him in that flex territory and philosophically,
27:58I'm keeping the tab open on him. Some of this is a little bit of, you know, like in Todd Munkin, I
28:05trust, you know, the head coach for the Browns.
28:08He has always throughout his tenure been very willing to cater his scheme to his players instead of like, I have my
28:15scheme and if my players don't fit in it, then I just explode and try to get new players.
28:21So I have a lot of respect for Munkin.
28:24I don't know if we're really going to see this offense progress significantly given what we've seen out of Deshaun Watson, but
28:30at least this offense has a higher floor than we would have expected.
28:34And to your point, what we see out of Quenjohn Junkins is that he is the clear lead back.
28:40A 76 utilization score is what we see for him if we look at the utilization report we have at Fantasy Life.
28:47So the Browns this week, they have an amplified home field advantage against the Panthers who are out of conference playing on grass.
28:54Those two things matter quite a bit. And then also a number of injuries on the defensive line for the Panthers as well.
29:01So he's someone that I wrote up in my Freedmen's favorites this week.
29:06He's a, you know, a lower end favorite, but someone that I think, you know, higher floor this week, I would be
29:12comfortable, as an example, starting him in guillotine leagues, right?
29:15I don't think he's going to get me chopped.
29:18Yeah, no, listen, I'm with you. I'm keeping it open here as well.
29:22I am as a top 20 plays. You mentioned RB19.
29:25You know, like I mentioned, they not really use involvement in passing game, but more than he has been in the past
29:32through two games, 13 and a half percent target share, which like not B.
29:37John Robinson or Devon Achan, but it's not nothing, right?
29:40I mean, it was seven and a half percent last year.
29:43So they are, Deshaun is actually throwing it to Junkins a little bit, especially because by the, he's the only guy out there.
29:50Dylan Sampson's banged up. He's not going to be in this game as well.
29:55And it's not a matchup that scares you. The Panthers through two games, again, the Panthers has been a lot more competitive than we thought.
30:02They're one-on-one and Bryce is playing well, but the Panthers are allowing over 173 rushing yards a game.
30:08They're giving up over six yards a carry to opposing running backs.
30:12And oh, by the way, I don't think Carolina, to your point, comes in and blows out the Browns.
30:18I thought the Browns defense, I thought maybe like, ah, you know, on the road at Tampa Bay, no Miles Garrett, like
30:24that they might, you know, but I thought that Browns defense looked better than I thought.
30:29Again, losing Jim Schwartz as their coordinator, losing Miles Garrett, two big losses for them in the offseason, but the Browns defense, still solid to your point.
30:38It is the home opener. They're one-on-one. There's some enthusiasm there.
30:41All that saying is, I think they keep this close with Carolina.
30:45I don't know if they win it, but I think they keep it close enough that I don't think Judkins gets game scripted out either.
30:53So I'm keeping it open on Quinchot Judkins, top 20 play for me.
30:57Hey, another running back that we had high hopes for in the preseason, but hasn't really materialized yet is Jeremiah Love.
31:03Where are you on the third overall pick in the NFL draft?
31:07Keep it open or close it out on Jeremiah Love.
31:10Ooh, I see some grimacing, but that's also, you kind of have a resting bitch face in general.
31:16So I'm just curious. I'm afraid more where we at now.
31:19Look, not the first time that someone has just called me a resting bitch in general, but we move on, right?
31:26It's fine with the wet blanket persona. Long-term, I'm still keeping the tab open on Jeremiah Love, but short-term, here's a way of phrasing it.
31:33I plan to return to the bar, right? But for tonight, I'm done.
31:37And this week, not really interested in starting Jeremiah Love.
31:40So on the road, really tough matchup. Road underdogs historically really don't do all that well.
31:45And then this is an offense that I don't really have much faith in.
31:50And then also there's the annoyance of Tyler Algier, who's a cromulent professional number two running back.
31:55Nice use the word cromulent, by the way. Thank you.
31:58Thank you. And so he's going to keep, in my opinion, Jeremiah Love from having the Ashton Gentty-like rookie workload that could
32:05at least help give him a high floor. So unfortunately, closing the tab on Jeremiah Love for now, but I do plan to return to the bar later.
32:14First off, you know how sometimes like if you ever fought, like if there's a band that you really like and you
32:20follow them and you'll see the phrase like, oh, so-and-so, like Bruce played Rosalita, tour debut or something like that.
32:27Or this band played this song for the first night, tour debut of this song, right?
32:32I saw a Zac Brown band the other night and a couple of weeks ago and it was like a couple of days after Dolly Parton passed away.
32:40And so he sang Butterflies, which is the song that him and Dolly.
32:44So that was the tour debut of the song Butterflies for Zac Brown.
32:48So anyway, I just want to let you know that Cromulent was the word debut on Happy Hour.
32:54So the first time that word's been used on this show in over four and a half years.
33:00Congratulations. Thank you. A word debut for you on Cromulent.
33:03I'm going to keep it open on Jeremiah Love.
33:05I agree with everything you said about the lack of confidence, the tough matchup here, you know, the fact that it's going
33:12to be probably a pass-heavy script here. But that's why I'm in on Jeremiah Love.
33:17Now, I have it running back 22, so it's a flex.
33:20And to use your example, I probably would not use Jeremiah Love in guillotine if I could avoid it because it does make me nervous.
33:28This 49ers defense is legit. They're fully healthy and they're great.
33:32But Cardinals eight and a half point underdogs here.
33:34And so far this season, Jeremiah Love has a double digit target share in both games.
33:39He's been targeted on 30% of his routes. So that's what I'm counting on is that I actually think the threat of
33:46Algier goes away because they're such big underdogs. They don't use Algier in the passing game.
33:51Jeremiah Love is their passing down back. I mean, again, they also use him on early down.
33:56He leads the team in goal line and red zone rush attempts.
34:00So if they do get in close, he's got the better chance of falling into the end zone so far.
34:06But I'm counting on passing game usage to make him flex-worthy assuming PPR or even at least half PPR kind of format here.
34:13Again, running back 22, but I'm reluctantly keeping it open on Jeremiah Love.
34:17We had high hopes in the preseason, Friedman, at least I did, on Marshawn Lloyd.
34:22For two years, we've been carrying the torch for this guy.
34:26Oh, Marshawn... You know, so many dynasty managers have so many shares of Marshawn Lloyd.
34:30I'm telling... It was so good at USC. You can hear their cries late in the night.
34:35But, um... But yeah, it's been tough so far for Marshawn Lloyd.
34:39But Thursday night against the Falcons, we're not scared of Atlanta.
34:43Where are you on Marshawn Lloyd, the erstwhile Packers starting running back?
34:46The poor dynasty investors who have Marshawn Lloyd, because they can't buy any more Marshawn Lloyd shares because they already own all of them.
34:54Yeah. It's a situation where I am not just closing the tab.
34:58I'm closing the tab and then I'm calling the health department and saying, you need to shut this establishment down.
35:04Oh, you're sure. You're a narc. You're a narc.
35:07I get it. Friedman. That doesn't surprise me, Friedman.
35:09It goes along with the persona. Yeah, okay. All right.
35:12So you're calling the health department. You're saying, shut this place down.
35:16Yeah. Like arson. Arson might be in the office.
35:19Are you standing out? When you narc on them, are you standing outside waiting for the health department to show up and
35:26like, you know, you're in a suit and a little bow tie and little horn-rimmed glasses saying, I told you, or are
35:33you hiding behind the bushes like some narcs are?
35:35I own it. I'm holding a sign that says, do not frequent this establishment and oh, by the way, it was me who called the health department.
35:44I admire that. Yeah. If you're going to be a narc, at least own it.
35:48Yeah. I mean, absolutely no way. No way. The narcler says stuntman Chuck.
35:52All right. Friedman. Like, so yeah, I mean, there's no production related, but go ahead.
35:57I interrupted your point. That's the point. There's no production and he's had the opportunity, the golden opportunity to establish himself with
36:04no Josh Jacobs here and Caleb Johnson, who was cast off from another team, got some opportunities in this game.
36:10I just have no faith at all in anything we have seen out of Marshawn Lloyd, especially with the possibility that Josh
36:17Jacobs in the middle of the season seems increasingly likely to return.
36:21So I'm closing the tab on Marshawn Lloyd and I'm never entering that bar again.
36:25Fair enough. I'm also closing it out. I'm at running back 38.
36:29Look, it's a three-headed running back by committee on a team that wants to throw.
36:34Chris Brooks has the same number of red zone touches as Marshawn Lloyd.
36:38To your point about Caleb Johnson, Caleb Johnson, you know, cast aside in Pittsburgh, couldn't make a dent in the Steelers, but
36:45he led Green Bay in rush attempts in week number two.
36:48Now, some of that was late in the game and they were sort of just trying it out, but still not a great matchup.
36:55For all the struggles of the Falcons, Atlanta has actually been decent against the run so far this year, allowing just 3.3
37:02yards per carry to opposing running backs. And so Marshawn Lloyd, who's playing under 40% of the snaps, he's averaging just 10 touches a game.
37:10I just definitely not using him in guillotine, would ideally not use him at all.
37:15I just want to avoid this backfield. Give me Jordan Love, give me Christian Watson, give me Matthew Golden, give me Tucker Kraft.
37:22That's what you're starting on the Green Bay Packers.
37:25But as it comes to Marshawn Lloyd, you and I are on the same page.
37:29We're closing it out. Although I am not a narc.
37:32I keep my mouth shut. But let's move to wide receivers, Narcler, and get to Jameson Williams.
37:38Just like the James Winston experience, we've had the pure Jameson Williams experience so far this year.
37:43At least, you know, it's always a roller coaster.
37:46And so far, it's been a lot of dips.
37:49You know, two receptions for 33 yards last week for J-Mo.
37:52He has not been great through two games of the season.
37:55But are you holding tight with Jameson Williams or are you closing it out?
38:00Where are you on demand they call J-Mo? I am ordering more drinks.
38:04Okay. That's where I am on Jameson Williams. You know, Matthew, it's been a long time since either one of us were in college.
38:11But I will say, you might sort of remember the game of like, hey, if you talk to enough attractive girls, eventually
38:18one of them might show interest in you when you're at the bar.
38:22That's what this is with Jameson Williams. You just have to keep on taking the shots.
38:27The great Becky Gillis sang a song about this.
38:30It's called Closing Time. They all look better at Closing Time.
38:33And that was always my anthem because I looked a lot better at like 130, 145.
38:38You know, when, you know, just sort of like, ah, fine.
38:42You know what I mean? That was a lot of that, including my wife for the love of God.
38:48You know, my poor wife, she's been drunk for 20 years.
38:51If my wife ever sobers up, I'm screwed. Um, uh, but, but yeah, that's exactly right.
38:56Right? So anyway, keep going on Jameson Williams here.
38:59I'm with you. Yeah. I mean, it's a situation where there are going to be a lot of strikeouts, but eventually when
39:06you hit, it's going to be a massive home run.
39:09And so you always know that's the process when you drafted Jameson Williams this off season, you knew that was the kind of player that you were getting.
39:17You have to ride the highs and the lows.
39:20You accept the lows because when he hits, you're going to have that one game that's 120 yards and two touchdowns and
39:27you're absolutely going to win your week. That's just part of the process with him.
39:32You absolutely don't bench him because when you bench him, that is exactly the time when he will go off.
39:38Yeah, I think that's right. Look, I'm at 27 wide receiver 27.
39:42So I'm going to keep it open. First off, lines have a top three, uh, top five implied team total, uh, in
39:48week number three, Jamos had three drops this season.
39:51I think, you know, if he, and he's not normally a big drops guy, I think if he hauls those, uh, those
39:58balls in, I think it's a different narrative that we're talking about here.
40:02Um, as Sheldon Leroy says, can't predict Jamos, big games can only get lucky or unlucky.
40:07And that's the point. I think that you're making Friedman is, is that if you draft Jamison Williams, you're not going to
40:14predict, oh, this is going to be a big Jamo game or this will be a bad one.
40:19You either start him all the time or you never start him because it's not matchup dependent.
40:25It's just sort of like, does he hit a big play or does he not?
40:29I do think he hits a big play this week against a Jets secondary that candidly is below average.
40:35You know, they played bad weather games, uh, with Green Bay and Tennessee.
40:39So it's sort of inflated the numbers, but I don't believe in this secondary.
40:44Give me Jamison Williams. I'm keeping it open. 12 minutes left here.
40:47So we got to whip through these last couple ones here, but I want to talk about Terry McLaurin, who actually does
40:54have a connection over the last couple of years with Marcus Mariota.
40:58Uh, a 25% target share. We talked about it yesterday.
41:01Like, Mariota and McLaurin do have a connection, but they're playing Seattle at home.
41:05Games in Washington, I should say, but like, uh, so the games against Seattle, even though it's at home in Washington, where
41:12are you on Terry McLaurin this week? Keep it open or close it out.
41:17Close it out. Uh, so part of it is the backup quarterback.
41:20Part of it is, uh, an offensive play caller who has never called plays before this season.
41:26And I think the offense isn't really looking the way that we would want.
41:30Part of it is that Stefan digs. I mean, this guy turns 33 in November.
41:35This is his fourth team in four years. And yet somehow he just manages to jump from team year to year and
41:41still look like a slightly above average professional wide receiver who just steals opportunities from other guys.
41:47So Stefan digs only on the team for two weeks.
41:50I think he already looks like the number one wide receiver ahead of Terry McLaurin.
41:54And then I also have healthy respect for Antonio Williams, who is, I think, an emerging playmaker who's not getting a ton
42:01of usage right now, but who will still steal opportunities from Terry McLaurin.
42:05So you put all of that together and it's no longer just the Terry McLaurin show.
42:10It's now Terry having to share the stage with two other guys with a backup quarterback distributing the ball to them.
42:17So I am closing the tab and maybe if Jaden McDaniels, sorry, Jaden Daniels returns later this season and the offense looks
42:24great, then I'm returning to the bar. But right now, closing the tab and I really don't have any intention of frequenting the establishment in the future.
42:32But at least you're not calling the health department the way you were against Marshawn Lloyd.
42:37Look, I agree with everything you said, although I'm not as, I'm not, I agree with the overall premise, which is I'm also closing it out on McLaurin.
42:46I'm at wide receiver 34, so outside my top 30.
42:49But my reasoning is slightly different than yours. I understand the concern about the backup quarterback, but Mariota's been fine the last two years, honestly.
42:57Like, yes, it's a new play caller, but Mariota's been perfectly fine.
43:00And yes, there's Antonio Williams and Diggs is getting, but you know what?
43:04It's still a fairly narrow target tree. McLaurin's still gonna get his.
43:08My concern is this matchup against Seattle. Like, the Seahawks allow the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receiver through two games, right?
43:15Wide receivers that are facing Seattle so far this year averaging under eight yards per reception.
43:20That's lowest in the NFL. And my commanders have the lowest implied team total in week three.
43:25You know, our friends in Vegas think they score 17 points.
43:29Candidly, I think that might be generous. So honestly, this is much more matchup than it is Mariota-based, but the result is the same.
43:36I just don't want any part of Terry McLaurin or candidly, the commander's offense.
43:41You probably still, you might have to start Diggs.
43:43Just he's been so hot. Three touchdowns in two games and there'll probably be some junk time here, but like, so the,
43:50you know, Vegas is saying they're going to score at least two touchdowns.
43:54Decent chance that Diggs gets one of them, but it's not ideal.
43:58All right, under 10 minutes to go. So last two names here.
44:02I want to start in Denver with Cortland Sutton.
44:05Where are you on Cortland Sutton? We saw the Broncos offense overall come back to life last week, but where are you specifically on Cortland Sutton?
44:13Keep it open or close it out. I'm closing it out pretty easily.
44:17Cortland Sutton is that dive bar that you went to in college and you had so many great times there with your
44:23buddy and then you come back to campus maybe even just five years later and you, you walk into the establishment and
44:30you think like, man, this place is a real dump.
44:33What, why did we think this place was so good?
44:36Like Cortland Sutton used to be fun. Now he is no longer fun.
44:41Now he's a real dump. Yeah. I mean, well, I'm just saying he's, he's not fun.
44:45It's a good analogy. I get it. Yeah. I mean, yeah, go ahead.
44:50Keep going, man. Yeah. And apologies to all of the Broncos fans, but you know where this is going.
44:55Bo Nix has not really been the version that we've seen the past two seasons and some of that is maybe the
45:02new play caller, tough matchups, just two weeks, whatever it is.
45:06But also, Jalen Waddell is, in my opinion, a significant upgrade on Cortland Sutton as the number one wide receiver in the offense.
45:13And there's just really not enough room in this offense for a strong number two, which means that relative to where we
45:20had him in previous years, Cortland Sutton drops down a ton.
45:23And also, on the wrong side of 30, I think his skills are just diminishing at this point.
45:29He was on my preseason hate list because Cortland Sutton, I think, traditionally has been fairly volume and touchdown dependent.
45:35You know what I mean? 50-50 ball winner, like you can throw it up and he'll come down with it.
45:41I feel like last year, every week, there was at least one ridiculous, amazing catch that Cortland Sutton would make.
45:47But again, he needed a lot of volume to get there and he needed the touchdowns.
45:52And so, he hasn't gotten the volume. Below a 20% target share in both games so far this season, we always talk about utilization score.
46:00Our mutual friend and colleague, Dwayne McFarlane, with his proprietary metric utilization score, he's wide receiver 53 in utilization through two weeks.
46:07Like, they're just not using him. You mentioned Jalen Waddell.
46:10Sean Payton told his wife, oh, you should draft Jalen Waddell in fantasy.
46:14You know what he didn't say to his wife?
46:17Draft Cortland Sutton. Sean Payton knows, you know, and honestly, if we're sitting here saying like, okay, Waddell's off the board, what's
46:24the Broncos pass catcher you'd like for the rest of the season?
46:27Maybe it's Sutton, but maybe it's Pat Bryant. You know what I mean?
46:31Or maybe it's, quote, the field. Because that's the thing.
46:34We're seeing some Marvin Mims. We see some Troy Franklin.
46:38We're seeing Evan Ingram. Like, it just, it feels like outside of Waddell, it's just kind of a wide receiver or pass catcher, I should say, by committee.
46:46And then you look at the matchup against the Rams that just shut down Malik Neighbors that, you know, is ready to bear.
46:53I mean, it just, I'm nervous about, they're going to be able to move Waddell around the formation in a way that they just won't free up Waddell.
47:02So, you and I are in lockstep here. I'm at wide receiver 45.
47:06I think you have him at 42. So, I'm actually lower on a player than you, Friedman.
47:11I'm actually fading him harder than you, which is rare because you are usually the number one hater.
47:17Last one here. And I really should excuse myself from this one.
47:21I really, Friedman, I should recuse myself from this one because in the preseason, for as much victory lapping as I'm doing
47:28about Devontae Smith who was my ride or die.
47:30As much victory lapping as I'm doing about Ken Walker who I was significantly higher on than consensus.
47:36I had him as, you know, I had him as a top eight overall player when everyone else had him as a second rounder.
47:43As much victory lapping as I'm doing of those players and others, I have to completely eat it on Colston Loveland because
47:50man, oh man, do I have a ton of Colston Loveland this year.
47:54He was my number three wide receiver. He was my runner up for ride or die and through two games, Friedman, I look like a moron.
48:02I like, I look like an idiot, a galoop, you know, a goofus.
48:06Remember Goofus and Gallant? Highlights Magazine when we were kids?
48:09I'm goofus when it comes to Colston Loveland. Am I right or am I wrong?
48:14Are we keeping it open or close it out?
48:17I can no longer be objective about Colston Loveland or is he Colston Hateland?
48:21See what I did? Wow. You just, you just went full meta there.
48:25That was great. It's too bad we can't sign off with that.
48:29By the way, if you need, I can come up with more negative terms about you.
48:34I have a running list. Fatuous Ignoramus is near the top but there are a lot of them.
48:40I will say the Colston Hateland perspective, I blame Dwayne McFarlane.
48:43You mentioned Dwayne earlier. I mean, He was right there with me.
48:47He was in the tub with me. There's no question about it.
48:50Him and I were next to each other in the Colston Loveland hot tub.
48:55We were both drinking his bath water. There's no question about it.
48:58So yeah, but I'm all for taking the blame off me and putting on Dwayne.
49:03Go for it. Yeah, I mean, let's do that.
49:06Dwayne would talk about how Colston Loveland in his final four games last year as a 21-year-old rookie had a 100 utilization score.
49:13Absolutely dominated in the postseason and even in week one.
49:16I will say you looked at the situation and it was like, okay, this team scored 59 points, a lot of reasons
49:23to be enthusiastic about the Bears in general and then Colston Loveland, even though he had zero production, he still had a position high 89% route rate.
49:31So he was out there. He was on the field.
49:34He was doing this stuff and if this offense is humming, at some point he's going to get that utilization.
49:41So even after week one, when he had zero fantasy points, you could talk yourself into it.
49:46But now, based on what we saw in week two, no Caleb Williams for this week, no Tyson Baygent and two games
49:53into the season, we have a guy who has given you literally just one catch on five targets.
49:58Most chopped and guillotine easily in the top five.
50:01Like this guy is destroying you and then now in this week, he's going against the Eagles who have one of the best secondaries in the league.
50:10Last year, we're number one in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends.
50:13Like literally one of the worst matchups he could have with a number three quarterback throwing to him, who at this point,
50:20Case Keenum, respect to him, but at this point is more of a quarterback's coach than an actual NFL quarterback and we
50:27have seen nothing from Colston Loveland except win sprints to this point in the season.
50:32I mean, you keep the tab open just in case an attractive woman walks in at close, but like, man, this is last call.
50:39Like, we are at that point. We have to start to see something soon.
50:43Agree with everything you just said. All that said, I'm reluctantly keeping it open on Colston Loveland.
50:49You and I both have him at tight end 12, so we both have him at the lowest end of a tight
50:56end one, but I think I'm still likely going to start him and here's why.
51:00First off, through two games, despite the fact that your point, like, I mean, again, I joke about this.
51:06The Roto World headline from the other day, Loveland heats up with a one-for-three performance, which is what he did, right?
51:13He was zero-for-zero in week one. He did catch one pass for three yards in week two.
51:18All those things make sense. Like, it's a Monday night game.
51:21It's in Philadelphia, and I always, like, I hate going on the road to good teams on primetime games.
51:27Like, again, the Eagles crowd, it's always a tough place to play to begin with, but now it's Monday night football.
51:34They're 2-0, lights, primetime, the whole thing, and right, whether it's Tyson Bajan, if he clears the concussion protocol or for this
51:41case, Keenum, they're coming in there with a backup quarterback.
51:44None of it's ideal. But here's the case for Loveland as a low-end tight end one.
51:49He leads the Bears in routes run, right? He's actually seen 40% of the team's end zone targets.
51:54He should have had a touchdown in week one.
51:57He didn't. And you think about, you know, you mentioned that secondary, Cooper Dejean, Quinone Mitchell, you know, is there a chance
52:04that, you know, whether it's Bajan or Keenum, that they target him a little bit more.
52:09The other thing is, Friedman, I just don't know if you've got a better option.
52:13If you drafted, if you drafted Colston Loveland, you were very likely didn't get another tight end because that's the whole point
52:20of drafting Loveland in the third or the fourth round is that you didn't have to worry about the position.
52:26If you wound up with an Isaiah likely later, okay, fine.
52:30But there's no one else that you likely would have gotten if you drafted Loveland early that you feel better about that
52:37has more upside than Loveland who is still in the lead talent.
52:40It is ugly and it is gross and I get it.
52:44But I'm reluctantly keeping it open on Colston Loveland.
52:47Matthew Friedman, we've got 40 seconds left so I'll just say thank you very much.
52:51We will all follow you on X at Matt F.
52:54The Oracle and we'll check out all of your work including Friedman's Faves when you're actually positive over at FantasyLife.com.
53:01We'll check out all your projections. You are a gentleman and a scholar.
53:05Thank you, Mr. Friedman. Thank you to Roku. We'll talk about that more tomorrow.
53:09Love Hate Show. Kendall Valenzuela makes her happy hour debut so I'm excited about that.
53:14Once again, a 9 a.m. Eastern start time for tomorrow.
53:17But it's closing time which means you don't have to go home but you can't stay here.
53:22For Matthew Friedman and the Roku channel, I am Matthew Berry.
53:25We'll see you tomorrow 9 a.m. Eastern. Peace out.
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