ADP Risers and Fallers with Peter Overzet
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
52 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 14, 2026
Published
Fri, August 14, 2026
22
Player insights
20
Players mentioned
Topics
Deebo SamuelKenyon SadiqAaron JonesAlec PierceC.J. StroudChuba HubbardDavid MontgomeryDenzel BostonDrake MayeFernando MendozaHarold FanninJakobi MeyersJeremiyah LoveJonathon Brooks
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Jones
NegativeValue31:06
Aaron Jones is sliding in ADP as Jordan Mason gains buzz, but Matthew Berry and Peter Overzet still consider him a buy-the-dip candidate. While Jones has missed significant time in recent years and is entering his age-32 season, he remains a key part of the Vikings' offense and a valuable asset at his current price point.
Insight pageAlec Pierce
PositiveValue43:57
Despite lingering injury concerns and a falling ADP, Matthew Berry and Peter Overzet are 'buying the dip' on Alec Pierce in best ball. He is viewed as a high-upside deep threat who is insulated from potential competition like Keenan Allen, as his role as a field stretcher is secure once healthy.
Insight pageC.J. Stroud
PositiveProjection49:01
Peter Overzet is targeting CJ Stroud as a long-shot bet for the regular season passing yards leader at +3500, citing his impressive rookie performance and the return of a healthy receiving corps including Tank Dell.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
NegativeInjury14:37
Chuba Hubbard is week-to-week with a hamstring injury. Matthew Berry maintains a higher ranking for Hubbard than Jonathan Brooks, citing the team's trust in Hubbard's pass protection and his veteran status, despite acknowledging Brooks' higher upside.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
PositiveUsage49:59
Matthew Berry identifies David Montgomery as underpriced, projecting him for 250-300 touches, 1,200 total yards, and 8-10 touchdowns, making him a solid RB2 value in the sixth or seventh round.
Insight pageDeebo Samuel
PositiveValue19:19
Deebo Samuel is an ADP riser, up about a round and a half on Underdog over the past week. Matthew Berry notes Samuel has maintained at least an 18% target share in every season he has played at least eight games, making him a safer bet for early-season production than rookie John Stribling.
Insight pagePositiveValue19:31
Deebo Samuel is identified as an ADP riser, climbing 14 spots over the past week in Underdog best ball drafts. Matthew Berry notes this movement reflects sharp drafter sentiment.
Insight pageDenzel Boston
PositiveBreakout24:28
Denzel Boston is a priority target and an ADP riser, up 12 spots. He is listed as a starter on the Browns' unofficial depth chart and is expected to serve as a primary red-zone target. While Peter Overzet notes he may be a headache in redraft due to potential low-volume passing, he is an excellent best-ball stash with high touchdown upside.
Insight pageDrake Maye
PositiveProjection50:48
Matthew Berry is betting on Drake Maye at 15-1 to lead the league in passing yards, citing the team's high passing volume, the addition of A.J. Brown, and a tougher schedule that will force the team to throw more.
Insight pageFernando Mendoza
PositiveProjection11:40
Matthew Berry and Peter Overzet agree that Mendoza looked good in preseason action. While Kirk Cousins is expected to start Week 1, Fantasy Life projects Mendoza to take over as the starter around Week 6 or 7. Overzet notes that Mendoza's performance provides confidence that he will not crater the offense for skill players like Brock Bowers or Ashton Genty.
Insight pageHarold Fannin
PositiveUsage25:01
Matthew Berry is lower on Harold Fannin this season, citing that Fannin's volume last year was a product of a lack of competition. With the additions of Denzel Boston and Concepcion, Berry expects Fannin's target volume to decrease significantly compared to his previous role as a volume king.
Insight pageJakobi Meyers
PositiveValue40:24
Matthew Berry and Peter Overzet argue that Jakobi Meyers is being unfairly faded due to 'Parker Washington mania.' Meyers is a proven target earner who commanded a 24% target share in Jacksonville last year and was paid significantly by the team. Berry ranks him at WR45 and expects him to outperform that rank.
Insight pageJeremiyah Love
PositiveUsage10:35
Jeremiah Love saw encouraging usage in preseason, playing 23 snaps with 14 touches and a 25% target rate on his routes. Matthew Berry notes this addresses concerns about his pass-game involvement and usage relative to Tyler Algier. While a goal-line split with Algier is expected, Love is viewed as a future workhorse and a potential superstar.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
PositiveValue15:08
Jonathan Brooks is gaining momentum in rankings, with Dwayne McFarland flipping him ahead of Chuba Hubbard. Peter Overzet notes that while Brooks has injury concerns and limited NFL experience, he is the preferred bet for upside in the Carolina backfield. Berry warns that his ADP could become over-inflated.
Insight pageJordan Mason
PositiveValue30:39
Jordan Mason is an ADP riser who has demonstrated high efficiency, posting a 56% rushing success rate last season. Matthew Berry and Peter Overzet view him as a valuable target at his current cost, especially given Aaron Jones's injury history. They believe the Vikings' backfield could be a productive two-man committee.
Insight pageJosh Downs
NegativeValue46:24
Peter Overzet notes that while he is excited about Josh Downs, the potential addition of Keenan Allen to the Colts would likely hurt Downs' fantasy value more than it would impact Alec Pierce.
Insight pageKenyon Sadiq
NegativeInjury38:28
Kenyon Sadiq is down nine spots in ADP while dealing with an injury that has kept him from returning to full practice. Despite the drop, Peter Overzet maintains more hope for Sadiq than for Gadsden, as Sadiq still has a clearer path to becoming an every-down tight end once healthy.
Insight pagePositiveSleeper39:53
Matthew Berry and Peter Overzet view Sadiq as a high-upside 'mystery box' for best ball builds, noting his physical freak athleticism and potential for late-season spike weeks similar to Colston Loveland's rookie trajectory. While likely undraftable in managed leagues due to a slow start, he remains a compelling late-round target.
Insight pageKirk Cousins
NegativeRole7:18
Matthew Berry and Peter Overzet confirm Kirk Cousins is the expected Week 1 starter, though Overzet suggests the team may turn to Fernando Mendoza as early as Week 2 or 3 if Cousins struggles, similar to the team's quick pivot to Michael Penix last year.
Insight pageMason Taylor
NegativeDepth Chart38:48
Matthew Berry and Peter Overzet acknowledge Mason Taylor as a competent player in the Jets offense, which contributes to the lack of immediate fantasy viability for other tight ends on the roster.
Insight pageParker Washington
NegativeUsage40:54
Parker Washington is currently experiencing extreme hype, with reports of his early-morning workout routine and dedication. While Matthew Berry ranks him highest among Jaguars wide receivers, the excessive hype is noted as a primary driver for the falling ADP of teammate Jakobi Meyers.
Insight pageTank Dell
PositiveValue49:42
Matthew Berry and Peter Overzet highlight Tank Dell as an undervalued asset who is 'free' in drafts. He is fully healthy and practicing, making him a prime candidate to monitor early in the season for a return to his productive rookie form.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00It is noon on YouTube, but it is 5 o'clock somewhere.
0:03I was just texting a buddy and the camera came on.
0:06I don't know if that ever happens to you, Peter Overzet, but it is at Fantasy Life Friday.
0:11So my buddy, Peter Overzet, over there at FantasyLife.com and a bunch of other things.
0:16He has a best ball bro. But Peter, does that ever happen to you?
0:20Because you do a ton of streaming. You are, of all the people in my universe, of all my friends, you probably stream the most.
0:27You're doing best ball breakfasts. You're doing So You Think You Can Tout.
0:31You've got your ship chasing. You've got, you know, 8 billion different shows out there.
0:35Does that ever happen to you when the camera comes on and you're caught like texting or something?
0:40Well, you know, it doesn't, Matthew, because I'm not as big time as you.
0:44I don't have producers that turn on the show for me.
0:47I have to be the one that presses the go live so I can finish that text and then press it.
0:53But someday I'll get to be able to get caught off guard with a start.
0:58There you go. Keep dreaming. Keep your feet on the ground and keep reaching for the stars, Peter Overzet.
1:03That's right. Listen, you're one of my favorite people.
1:06And I have, before we get into everything, we're going to get into a bunch of different things.
1:11We're going to talk a little bit about last night's preseason action as it relates.
1:15Oh, and Mikey YT says, I feel like Barry needs to step up his drink choice on Fridays.
1:20Maybe something with a little more ABV. Maybe. You know, like, I love my Pinot, Peter.
1:25Like, you know, I don't know what your drink choice is, but like Pinot Grigio just gets me buzzed.
1:31I don't know why. Well, it's nice that we both have our drinks obscured here.
1:35And that's why I can tell people that I'm just mainlining vodka right now to kick off the weekend.
1:40I keep hoping that I'm going to get an alcohol sponsor here for for the happy hour.
1:45But what I wanted to do was what I was going to sue is I was going to say is I truly
1:52all of this fantasy life is really in a large part due to you, Peter, because I used to have fantasy life
1:58dot com used to be a place where you could just buy T-shirts, hats and hoodies.
2:02And we would send out a newsletter to try to sell more hats, hoodies and T-shirts.
2:07And I remember asking you, I went to you and I said, Peter, I just got to know you.
2:13I'd seen some of your work like on on Rotovis and some of the other places and some of the skits you were doing online.
2:20I thought you were really smart, funny writer that had a had a point of view on fantasy that was similar to mine.
2:26And I went to you and I said, would you mind?
2:29Could we figure out a deal for you to write this newsletter?
2:33And you did. And you have. I think it's we're going on five years now that you've written this newsletter.
2:39And from your success, honestly, writing that newsletter has grown a company that I think we've got 25 full time employees now.
2:45And we've got investors and we've got a guillotine league dot com.
2:48We've got a we've got a whole game that's awesome to play.
2:52It's the tech is amazing this year. And and we've got fantasy life plus.
2:56So anyway, and we'll talk about that in a second.
2:59But just thank you, Peter, for for everything over the last five years.
3:03No, thank you for that opportunity. I was a nobody at the time.
3:06And for you to entrust me with your newsletter took a leap of faith.
3:10And it is incredible to see everything that it has turned into.
3:14I mean, it is crazy to think what fantasy life is now.
3:17As you know, Matthew, I used to write that newsletter in a Google Doc and send it to the marketing team that worked on the merch site.
3:25And then they would send it out. I mean, I mean, we have moved past the Google Doc.
3:30Let's just say that. We have it. It's we're like a like we're like a real company.
3:35We're like grown up in everything. And Brian Hickman says no branded ankle socks in the merch shop.
3:40No, honestly, I should have. That's an opportunity that's missed.
3:43And maybe we'll we'll throw up a happy hour shop here at some point in the future.
3:48I know. I know Pete has his own merch.
3:51You're you're big in the merch, Pete. I know that.
3:53Well, and then you forget to update it for a long time.
3:57And yes, I need to get better in the merch game.
4:00I need some more fresh fantasy life merch, too, as well.
4:03I'm lacking in that department right now. Yeah. You and I both got to talk to Emily about that.
4:09The great Emily Stone. Ryan Oswald says I'm loving fantasy life.
4:12Upgrades are spot on. This is true. 37 different tools are behind the paywall on fantasylife.com.
4:16Like my hundred facts column is up there. We have a lot of free content out there.
4:21Peter, your content is free. Our rankings are my rankings are free.
4:25And they're customizable for whatever kind of league you have.
4:28But Peter, talk to me a little bit about this draft champion draft companion.
4:32I should say the draft companion Chrome extension that we just rolled out the other day, which I think is pretty good.
4:38It's awesome, right? Because the one thing that I think everybody always has to deal with is whether you're printing off rankings,
4:44whether you're doing your own Google sheet, whatever a magazine.
4:47It's like you want it customizable in real time dynamically with your draft.
4:51And now with this Chrome extension, the draft companion right now, it's supported on ESPN.
4:55I know it's going to be available on other sites as well.
4:59It not only feeds in our fantasy life ranks and projections, but it updates real time as the draft is going on.
5:05So you don't have to cross off a player, figure out who's available, all of that stuff.
5:10It is helping you make the right decision in real time.
5:13Just a really nifty tool. You can get added.
5:16I did it the other day. Just one click adds it to the Chrome extension.
5:20Once you load up your ESPN draft, you're good to go.
5:23And your league mates will have no clue that you are running circles around them on easy mode.
5:28Right. And what it does is in addition to it basically brings me to your draft.
5:33It brings Dwayne McFarland, Peter Kendall, Matthew Friedman. So you think you can tout winner Alex Cups.
5:38It brings all of all of the fantasy life experts basically with your draft.
5:42And so you can sort of pick and choose which one of us you like our projections.
5:47We have a couple of different projection sets. So it's unbelievable.
5:50Promo code Barry gets you 10%. Do you have a promo code, Pete?
5:54You probably have a promo code too. What's your promo code?
5:57Can I one up you? Pete 20 will get you 20% off.
6:00Don't use Matthews. Use mine for 20% off right now.
6:03Use Pete 20 for 20% off. Let's see. It'll be, that'll be a good test.
6:07Would they, do they love me more? Cause this is my show and they only want 10% off with, with promo code Barry.
6:14Or they're like, screw it. I want the extra 10% off.
6:17I'll use promo code Pete 20 at fantasylife.com. Mr.
6:20Spartan magic says you need a mustache. There's a lot of questions about your hair just because I have so little of it.
6:26What do you, like you have a good, you've got a good flock.
6:30It's not great. I got the. But you've got some good lettuce there.
6:34Yeah. I don't know about that. We're losing it.
6:36You just clearly didn't, you know, you woke up and threw a hat on, but, um, uh, you know, at the ripe
6:43age of, uh, ripe time of noon. Um, how many, so anyway, whatever we'll, um, uh, the regulars are on fire already today.
6:49It is a Friday. Um, I want to get into the preseason, uh, games last night.
6:54Pete, did you get a chance to watch any of it?
6:57Um, uh, um, I thought, I thought let's start with Mendoza.
7:00I thought he looked pretty good again. Yeah. You know, all the caveats it's week one, it's vanilla defenses, blah, blah, blah.
7:07But like you, like I said about Carson Beck, you'd rather him look good than not.
7:11And I thought he looked pretty good. No, for sure.
7:14And to me, like the real question, everybody, I think everyone knows two things, right?
7:18Kirk cousins is going to start week one. And we also know that Fernando Mendoza is going to be the quarterback at the end of the season.
7:26The question is, is how early does Mendoza take over at fantasy life right now?
7:30We have Mendoza projected for 12 games. So we're saying around week six, week seven with him looking good, there have been
7:37some reports that he could force more of a camp battle.
7:40Could he maybe push to start week one? I still think we see Kirk.
7:44There's going to be the veteran deference, but Matthew would week two, week three be on the table now.
7:49I think absolutely. I look, uh, you know, um, they know what Kirk cousins is both, you know, and I think it's
7:56just a dependent on sort of like, like, think about last year, right?
8:00The, this was the same plan last year. They're going to bring Michael Penix along.
8:04You know, that, that was the, that was the, the idea.
8:07And it was just like, oh no, no, Kirk's the guy.
8:10Right. And then, um, they quickly realized, uh, oh, we got to get Penix in their ASAP.
8:15Like just Kirk, just like, just did not look like, you know, Kirk of old or whenever.
8:20I mean, not, not last year, but you know what I mean to, um, uh, when, when Penix was drafted.
8:26And so I think, I think this gives the, the coaching staff and Clint Kubiak confidence here that like, whenever we want
8:32to turn to Mendoza, he looked pretty good. Um, some man checks as Ryan Leaf looked great in the preseason back in the day.
8:39I get it. Ryan Leaf is a long time ago.
8:42I mean, one of the things on Mendoza is that Mendoza to a person was like, um, the most pro ready prospect coming out of college.
8:49I'll say just in general, I mean, Carson Beck looked pretty good.
8:53Uh, I don't want to get into it. Like, but for dynasty wise, I thought Drew Aller looked pretty good last yet yesterday for the Steelers.
9:00Like we may have been underrating this quarterback class, Pete.
9:03Um, uh, but, uh, specific to fantasy, I think for what we care about whenever we send Mendoza, I saw enough last
9:09night to say like, okay, for, for everyone that's got Brock Bauer shot, shot, good God, Brock Bowers shares the pinot hitting
9:16hard early on, on Friday for everyone that has Brock's Brock Bowers shares, um, uh, you know, or Ashton Gentty, like you feel good about this offense.
9:23Good enough that Mendoza is not going to crater the offense the way some rookies kind of do.
9:29Exactly. That's all we're asking. And, you know, it's kind of similar to the Carson Beck stuff in Arizona as well.
9:35Like it was nice to see him play well in the hall of fame game, because again, we fully expect late season
9:41for the Cardinals to say, yeah, we appreciate what you've done for us, Jacoby Brissett, but it's time to see what we have in Carson Beck.
9:48You just want to make sure that the floor doesn't fall out below you and that the entire offense crumbles.
9:54We don't even need them to be great, right?
9:57We just need them to be solid, be slightly around average.
10:00And then all of these skill position players we care about, they can feast in fantasy.
10:05Yeah. And, and I, and they're not going to put Mendoza, Mendoza is the future.
10:09They're not going to put Mendoza under center until they know that they can get basically, you know, uh, mid they're not
10:15going to put, they're not going to put them in a position to fail.
10:19Right. So I think, um, and just, you know, uh, what we saw last night lets you feel like that's going to come sooner rather than later.
10:27Medici says, Kirk knows the assignment is going to pepper Bowers.
10:30Absolutely. They both know the assignment. Uh, I also thought, you know, Jeremiah love, this was encouraging again.
10:35It's the preseason, not all the starters played, but like, um, he played 23 snaps.
10:40Jeremiah love. He got 14 touches on those 23 steps.
10:43He was targeted on 25% of his routes, 11 for 58, three receptions for 14 yards, which I thought was really encouraging
10:49because those are kind of the two questions about Jeremiah love.
10:52Isn't the talent. It was merely like, is this guy going to get out?
10:56How often is this guy's going to get used compared with Tyler Algier?
11:00And is he going to be used in the passing game in a significant way?
11:04And again, first week, blah, blah, blah. But I thought this was very encouraging.
11:08It was clear that, uh, Matt Lafleur got the, got the memo from the owner of the, of the Cardinals.
11:14Jeremiah love needs to touch the ball a lot.
11:16Yeah. I mean, in Jacoby Brissett, he played 11 snaps.
11:19Those are the ones we kind of care about with all the starters out there.
11:24Love had eight snaps and Algier had three. We can live with that split for sure.
11:28I guess the ultimate riddle here for kind of Jeremiah loves early season value, because I think we all agree by the
11:35end of the season, this guy's going to fully take over.
11:38They're not going to be able to take him off the field early season.
11:42Matthew, who do you think is the goal line back?
11:45Because we know how important that is for fantasy production.
11:47Do you think they defer to Algier who did that so well in Atlanta for many years?
11:52That's a great question. I think, and I don't mean to fence it here and I'm curious what your thoughts are.
11:58My guess is it is a bit of a split.
12:01I think, um, I think Algier has proven that he's can, he can do that.
12:06He's as good a finisher as there is in the NFL.
12:09He did that for so many years in Atlanta really well.
12:12But there's also like, look, one of the reasons they drafted Jeremiah Love third overall, given all the needs that the Cardinals
12:18team had, and they had a decent running back room prior to drafting it with Algier and the, you know, Trey Benson still hanging around James Conner.
12:26Like they had depth at the position is that they want to put butts in the seat.
12:31Jeremiah Love is a superstar. And so, you know, your superstar, you want to get them into the end zone.
12:37So I do think it's a little bit of a split, uh, early on, uh, in the year.
12:42And it may be one of those things. It's just sort of like we in fantasy are always like, you know, Oh, who's going to get the goal.
12:50And a lot of times when I've talked to coaches and we had Scott Turner, who's a former offensive coordinator, um, from
12:56the commanders and the, and the Raiders on yesterday.
12:59And so I've talked to a lot of different coaches, including Scott.
13:02And a lot of times it's not like, Oh, it's the goal line.
13:06Let's bring an Algier. It's just like, what's the formation?
13:09What's the, what's the package we have in at the moment?
13:12Hey, they're hurrying up. Hey, the quarterback sees something, right.
13:15And he checks out at the line of scrimmage.
13:17They're supposed to do a fade, but he doesn't like the call and he just hands off.
13:22And then the guy converts it. Like a lot of times it's, it's less, um, it's less measured as we think it
13:29is, you know, like who's getting the goal line work.
13:32And I think a lot of times it's just sort of what happens during the game.
13:36Yeah, for sure. And I could see scenarios where like, you know, if there's a timeout or stoppage, like, yeah, they're probably
13:42going to bring Algier out for it. But Jeremiah Love on the field in hurry up situations, two minute, you know, he's
13:49obviously going to be their pass catching back. They're not taking him off the field just to get Algier in there.
13:55They will be perfectly content to let him in.
13:57And I see some people in the chat saying he looked like Adrian Peterson last night.
14:02That was the clip circulating it. He did like, if you showed you side by side, you would have been like, wait, is that next gen Adrian Peterson?
14:10Yeah. Yeah. It's a great question here. Chats on fire.
14:13H. Gross says, uh, right. Basically, uh, in dynasty, do you want Jeremiah Love or Mike Washington?
14:18So there you go. Love that. Um, uh, I'm going to say what I'm going to stick with love for, uh, right now.
14:24Um, the only other, uh, new, I mean, there's a lot of different things to react to from last night, but I
14:31want to get into the ADP risers and followers.
14:33The last piece of news here was Chuba Hubbard suffered a hamstring injury.
14:37He's considered week to week. I mean, we're going to get to stripling in a minute, uh, by the way.
14:43Um, we, we, we'll, we'll get to stripling in a minute, but I want to get into Hubbard here.
14:48He's week to week. Dave Canales says he should be ready for the start of the year, but the team's going to be quote smart about it.
14:56Is this the news? I'm curious where you have, um, Hubbard and Brooks in your rankings, because I certainly could see some
15:02people say, Hey, this is the news we needed to put Jonathan Brooks ahead of Chuba Hubbard in our ranks.
15:08Cause it's been trending that way for a while in the preseason as the Brooks drum beat gets louder.
15:14Yeah. I wrote about this in the fantasy life newsletter this morning, by the way, make sure you guys are subscribed to
15:20that free newsletter in your inbox seven days a week.
15:23We got you covered on all of this important news in Dwayne flip Dwayne McFarland.
15:27Our great ranker over at fantasy life flipped these two in his rankings.
15:31It's really close. I think he now has Jonathan Brooks, RB 30 Chuba Hubbard, RB 31, but that's significant to now have the veteran take the backseat.
15:39I understand all the skepticism with Jonathan Brooks, right?
15:41A guy who has only played in a few games in his career.
15:45It's obviously been derailed by injuries, but going back to the beginning of, you know, the summer, the team has told us he is fully healthy.
15:52He looks great. He's going to force a committee situation here.
15:56He is now, I think the bet you want to make.
15:59Now, the interesting thing with always with fantasy, right?
16:01Matthew is what's the price because the Jonathan Brooks price could get a little silly now as everyone gets excited in Chuba
16:08could become a value because even if he's a little slow at the start of the season, Chuba is not going away.
16:14If he's healthy, he's going to get touches in this offense.
16:17I compared it in the newsletter a little bit to the Bayshel, Tootin, Chris Rodriguez split, where we're all very excited about Tootin and the opportunity here.
16:25But Chris Rodriguez is going to be a factor.
16:27He's going to touch the ball. I think you could argue the price on a guy like Rodriguez is too cheap right now.
16:34That might happen to Chuba as well. Yeah. The Chubbler losing his job, according to some of the regulars.
16:40That is a nickname on the show. He's the Chubbler.
16:42And that's the point. And honestly, that's why I have yet to flip them.
16:46So I have Chuba Hubbard at 31 overall. I have Brooks at 33.
16:50So similar to Dwayne, I have them right there, right there in the early 30s.
16:55But I've kept Hubbard above Brooks for two reasons.
16:57And as we get closer to camp and we see this, I may ultimately flip.
17:01But I'm hanging on tight to Hubbard over for a couple of reasons.
17:05Number one is that we don't know if Jonathan Brooks is any good.
17:09I understand that he was a highly tatted prospect out of college.
17:12I understand the final year at Texas. I understand that, you know, we're hearing all these great camp reports.
17:18But he's coming off of two serious injuries and we've never seen him in an NFL game.
17:23I mean, like, right. What does he have? Like nine touches in the, you know, in like a couple of years?
17:29Like, and so and to your point about Chuba Hubbard not losing his job, like they paid Hubbard.
17:34Last year, Rico Dowdle has a couple of 200 yard games.
17:37Hubbard comes back from injury and still gets work.
17:40And ultimately ended up working his way back. And like my hundred facts column is out on fantasylife.com.
17:45It's 100% free. Go check it out. I'm a company man.
17:48And I put a bunch of facts in there about basically how inefficient Chuba Hubbard was last year.
17:53And he's, you know, there's a billion bad stats.
17:56And it may be that he was inefficient, but it also may be just like he tried to come back from an
18:02injury and he tried to get back a little bit quicker than he should have because he didn't want to lose his
18:08job to Rico Dowdle, who had a couple of those monster games there.
18:12And that maybe, you know, a fully healthy Hubbard.
18:15And again, I know he's banged up right now, but I don't know.
18:18I just, I don't expect this offense to suddenly explode.
18:21And I think that there is, I don't think there's a scenario where, where Brooks runs away with a job.
18:27I just think because of, they seem to really trust Hubbard and pass protection.
18:31They paid the guy. They like him. He's the veteran.
18:34I just feel like he's, there's a, there's a chance that Brooks just disappears, that he gets injured again.
18:39And like, and Hubbard takes the job over. There's, I think that chance is slim, but there's a chance.
18:45I think assuming health, there's no chance that Hubbard suddenly just disappears.
18:48He may not be fantasy relevant, but I think, I think he's going to get at least 10 touches a game.
18:54And so at the moment, I just, I have Hubbard two spots ahead of Brooks.
18:59Just, you know, again, we'll see, we'll see how, you know, as, as the, as the training camp goes on and we
19:05see Brooks in some preseason action, I may flip, but I'm hanging on tight right now to Hubbard two spots over just
19:11because I think there's more of a floor with Hubbard than there is.
19:15There's, there's probably more upside with Brooks, but there's more of a floor with Hubbard that makes any sense there as well.
19:21And I'm worried about the hype on Brooks getting out of control.
19:25All right. Let's talk about, I promised some John Stribling talk who looked really, really good last night as well.
19:31But the reason I wanted to bring up Stribling here is because one of the ADP risers is Debo Samuel, who's up 14 spots over the past week.
19:39I should let everyone know that the ADP that I pulled is from underdog just because I drafts have been going on for a long time on underdog.
19:47So this is best ball, but I tried to pick out players that are going to be relevant in season long, but
19:53just on, on, on underdog drafts have been going on for a long, long time.
19:57It's, it's, it's fairly sharp drafters there as opposed to some of the season long sites where drafts are just starting.
20:03And there hasn't been a lot of movement in ADP yet, just because, you know, most people in season long haven't had their drafts yet.
20:11And I just feel like there's a better sample size in terms of movement with underdog.
20:15I think it's a better representation of the market at the moment.
20:19So Debo Samuel is up about a round and a half over the past week here, Peter.
20:23And what are you thinking about Debo making this return to San Francisco?
20:27And you can also talk about Stribling last night who looked pretty good.
20:31Yeah. Stribling seven for 63 on 22 snaps. Of course, a ton of the starters for the Niners were resting.
20:37So we kind of have to parse through what this actually means to me, the Stribling stuff.
20:42It just means, okay, maybe this guy can play a little bit, you know, by all, you know, metrics by Dwayne's rookie supermodel.
20:48He was overdrafted. I think pretty much everyone kind of agreed relative to what he did as a prospect.
20:54So you kind of worry about these guys, like, are they ready to play in the NFL?
20:59I think what we saw last night, similar to what we've talked about with Mendoza, it's just nice to get that confidence
21:05that the lights aren't too bright even in week one of the preseason.
21:09But I'm with you. I think when we open up the season, it's going to be, you know, Kittle when he's out there, it's going to be Debo.
21:17But it is an interesting conversation as their ADPs converge.
21:20And right now on underdog, you do have Debo going, you know, 11 picks ahead of Stribling.
21:24But we know how these things work, right? The market, the drafters, they're always going to want the young, shiny new toy,
21:31especially if they're showing out in the preseason. So I would not be surprised to see Stribling, you know, come close to Debo, potentially flipping him in ADP.
21:39And then it becomes kind of the conversation of what are you looking for?
21:43I think Debo Samuel is a much safer bet to give you production at the start of the season.
21:48We know historically these older veterans, especially guys like Debo, who do have a penchant, you know, for taking hits, being a ball carrier, potentially getting hurt.
21:56That could open up the way for Stribling to really crush down the stretch.
22:00I think back to a few years ago, Ricky Pearsall, he was not very involved in the offense, despite being a high
22:06draft pick for the 49ers until the very end of the season.
22:10And then there were some things that broke his way.
22:13They really showcased him, including in a monster week 17 game against the Lions.
22:17And that's kind of how I feel like the trajectory could ultimately play out for Stribling.
22:21So I want to be excited, but I also want to be realistic.
22:25Like this is a team that has Super Bowl aspirations.
22:28It has CMC. It has Kittle. It has Debo.
22:31They are going to go out there and play their veterans.
22:34Stribling, I think, is an interesting piece. Don't forget Mike Evans.
22:37How did I forget Mike Evans? I forgot Mike Evans.
22:40Yes. So where does Stribling fit in there for you, Matthew?
22:43Yeah. I mean, I think you have it exactly right.
22:46I mean, look, Debo, Debo, I think at least will at the start of the season keep Stribling's upside limited.
22:52Right. He's had at least an 18 percent target share in every single season.
22:56This is Debo now. At least an 18 percent target share in every season.
23:00He's played at least eight games. He's familiar with the system.
23:03It's one of the reasons why they brought him back is because they've dealt with some injuries.
23:08And so Kyle Shanahan's system is a complicated one.
23:10It is hard for rookies generally to pick up.
23:13Having said that, there's obviously significant draft capital here.
23:15And with Debo, Kittle, CMC and Mike Evans, you've got four guys that even if they can avoid the electrical plant, you
23:22know, those are four guys that have dealt with injuries throughout their career.
23:25And so you could see Stribling getting a chance sooner rather than later.
23:29I will say about Debo, back-to-back seasons averaging under 50 receiving yards per game.
23:33He turned 30 in January. He's dealt with some injuries.
23:36There was a reason why they let him go in the first place.
23:40And I feel like had they had more health, I don't know that Debo would have been back.
23:45So, I mean, look, I have Debo at 123 overall, wide receiver 53.
23:49I don't mind him, but I actually probably at that point in the draft, I'd probably rather Stribling because I think there's an upside.
23:56There's a potential upside for Stribling that I don't think is necessarily there with Debo.
24:00I agree with you. Debo is probably safer production early on.
24:03So if you went with some risky guys, if you get an Alec Pierce, whatever, and you're like, I need some, you
24:09know, if you're in a deeper league and you want to get somebody that you know can get to, you know, eight to 10 points early on.
24:17Sure. But like at that point in the draft, I'd rather swing for the fences a little bit more.
24:23And I think Stribling potentially has an opportunity that an upside that probably isn't there with Debo Samuel.
24:28Somebody that does have a ton of upside is Denzel Boston.
24:31He's up 12 spots over the past week here.
24:34He's listed as a starter in Cleveland's preseason unofficial depth chart.
24:37He's had an unbelievable training camp. The reports out of Cleveland are this guy is the real deal.
24:42And then you think about the fact David Njoku no longer there.
24:45Boston is going to be that big red zone target for whoever the quarterback of the Browns is.
24:51This is a guy in his last two college seasons scored 20 touchdowns in 25 games and, you know, doesn't have the
24:57draft capital of Concepcion, but it's somebody that you could see scoring more touchdowns than Concepcion.
25:01I will tell you this as well, Peter. In my 100 facts, one of the things that I did is I, you
25:08know, my facts are my 100 facts column is kind of a sleepers and bus column disguised.
25:13I think cleverly disguised where I'm sort of using facts in a certain stylistic way to lead you to my opinion on
25:19certain players, players I'm higher on, players I'm lower on.
25:22And I'm lower on Harold Fannin, who last year was a volume king and just wasn't super efficient, just got massive volume.
25:28But because they didn't have anyone like, you know, Jerry Judy was the only guy that got more than 50 targets on
25:35the team last year outside of Fannin. But now adding Boston, adding Concepcion, I just don't see Fannin getting the kind of
25:41volume that he got last year, even with Njoku, now with the Chargers.
25:45So I'm just curious where you have Denzel Boston and your thoughts on him.
25:49Yeah, I think he's I think he's a priority target right now.
25:52I mean, his ADP, you know, an underdog stuff around 145 here.
25:56I think you can justify grabbing him a little higher than that.
25:59It is interesting. I agree with you. The Fannin stuff could be complicated.
26:03I wonder if in the way Denzel Boston hits, I think it hits with a bunch of touchdowns, right?
26:08I think back to some of these other big body rookie wide receivers over the years, you know, the T Higgins year,
26:15the Chase Claypool, even go way back to your Syracuse alum and also rest in peace, Mike Williams.
26:20You know, 10 touchdowns as a rookie. I mean, guys like that could Denzel Boston do that where he's just that good in the red zone.
26:27I could see it. So, yeah, I think he is an interesting target.
26:31I do wonder, Matthew, we're doing best ball risers.
26:33I love him in best ball. I think from a managed perspective, just in that offense, maybe we're low volume pass attempts.
26:40Maybe they are spreading the ball around. I do think he might be a little bit of a headache in redraft.
26:46And so that's something I think to think through with some of these guys as well.
26:50I think he's again, like he's I'm a wide receiver 59, but he's somebody that I think is an interesting guy.
26:56I like taking at least one rookie wide receiver that I can sort of stash that I think will have a strong second half.
27:03So I think Boston is one of those guys.
27:06I think Concepcion could be easily one of those guys we just talked about.
27:10Stribbling could be one of those guys. But I always like having at least one rookie wide receiver that that I'm not
27:16going to count on at the beginning of the year.
27:19But you could see second half of the year.
27:22Things clicking, as we've seen with a bunch of rookies over the last handful of seasons.
27:26Let's head to Washington. It wouldn't be a podcast if I didn't talk about Washington.
27:31But but to Corey Krosky Merritt, Bill is up eight spots.
27:34He's up almost a full round over the past week.
27:37A lot of talk out of camp that he's improved his pass catching skills, which was one of the things that people
27:43were talking about with Rashad White and Jeremy Nichols.
27:46And so they don't really have a lead back.
27:48I know they've got Katron Allen, but this is a guy who last year, 12 percent of his rushes gained at least 10 or more yards.
27:56That was a 10, a top 10 rate among running backs with 100 more carries.
28:00And the last thing I'll say about Corey Krosky Merritt is that we talked about this a lot last year in the preseason.
28:07Connor Rogers, my my friend and former colleague at NBC, who does a great job of scouting players, had JCM ahead of R.J.
28:13Harvey on his pre draft on his pre NFL draft rankings, just on pure skill, just off of college tape.
28:19He thought JCM was that talented. So I know a lot of people at seventh round rookie.
28:24But Bill in year two looks like he could get this job.
28:27Yeah. And I know early on when the season opened up, I was pretty skeptical of the price on Bill, just how things ran out last year.
28:35We had similar enthusiasm at this time 12 months ago.
28:38It's like they trade away Brian Robinson. Let's go blast off for Bill.
28:42And then it took, you know, basically the entire season for that to materialize.
28:46The thing that's been key for me with Bill is we're not hearing a ton of buzz about Katron Allen.
28:51I was worried about McWeapon there. You know, the guys that they had like six running backs on the roster.
28:57And I'm like, do we feel confident Bill is going to be the early down rusher?
29:02We also know Rashad White's going to be in there on passing downs.
29:06So I was a little nervous about it, but I see this price and I'm like, isn't it worth messing around and
29:12finding out the lead back here on the commander?
29:14So I'm on board with this rise. I don't think he's moved to a price where you have to be out.
29:21One thing I would throw to you, Matthew, how big does the Tunsil injury kind of impact how you feel about this
29:27offense and maybe specifically the running game for Bill?
29:29Yeah, I stumped me and Chuck saying Bill is actually pronounced a-chan.
29:33I appreciate that. Well done, stumped me and Chuck.
29:35Look, we actually talked about this with Scott Turner yesterday on yesterday's show, former commanders, offense coordinator, Scott Turner, who said, yes.
29:42Look, is it a loss? Of course, but they'll plan for that.
29:45And having somebody like Jaden Daniels behind center helps out that.
29:48You know, Brandon Coleman, who played left tackle for the team, who has played left tackle for the team before, he'll move over there.
29:55So they have a quality replacement for Tunsil. He's not Tunsil.
29:58But they'll have a quality replacement there. And they'll plan for that.
30:02So they'll have to chip a little bit more.
30:04But the fact that Bill has shown pass-catching improvement maybe means he stays on the field a little bit more.
30:10And obviously, when you have somebody like Jaden back there and you have to have a spy on somebody like him, I think that'll help.
30:17The Tunsil injury doesn't hurt as much on the commanders as it would any other team because of the – you know,
30:24if you had a Lamar, Josh Allen, that kind of thing.
30:27It doesn't hurt as much with a mobile quarterback as it would necessarily with – you know, if you had a statue
30:33back there, a Kirk Cousins, if you will. Hey, one guy that we haven't talked about in this show at all, Peter,
30:40this entire season, this preseason, is Jordan Mason. We've talked a lot of Kyler Murray.
30:44We talked, you know, some Jawan Jennings when he showed up in Minnesota.
30:48But we haven't talked Jordan Mason, who's now up five spots over the last week.
30:52This is a guy who had a 56% rushing success rate last season, top 10 among running backs with at least 75 attempts.
30:59Like Jordan Mason, when he's gotten an opportunity, has always been good.
31:02I think it's a pretty good offensive line that got healthier this offseason.
31:06And Aaron Jones, who this show loves, friend of the podcast, Aaron Jones, free Aaron Jones.
31:10Everyone knows that. But, you know, he's missed at least five games too the last three years.
31:15He turned 32 in December. And I know from interviewing Kevin O'Connell, also a friend of the show, that one of the
31:22things they value about Aaron Jones is his clubhouse presence.
31:24He is great in the clubhouse. He's one of the leaders of the team.
31:28So I could see a scenario where they want to keep Aaron Jones around for just veteran leadership.
31:34But Jordan Mason is the running back you want in Minnesota.
31:37Your thoughts there? Yeah, you know, I'm open to both of these guys.
31:41I mean, they're both cheap, right? They're going after pick 100.
31:44I wrote about these guys in the newsletter a few weeks back, and I vowed that I wouldn't make the same mistake
31:50that I made with the Cowboys backfield last year, which was, I love the offense.
31:54I'm excited about Pickens, Dak. Give me all those guys.
31:57But I don't want to deal with Javante. He's old.
32:00What is he going to do? And then Javante just falls into the end zone a bunch of times and scores a ton of points.
32:07And it's like, OK, that didn't really matter. It's the same thing with the Vikings, right?
32:12We're excited about what Kyler can do. We're excited about Jefferson and Addison and Hawk.
32:16And it's like, ah, these older running backs. And it's like, wait, couldn't they fall into the end zone a ton?
32:22There was a crazy stat. Last year, Javante Williams had 16 carries inside the five.
32:27The Vikings had less than 10 combined last year.
32:29That McCarthy offense. So if you're telling me, like, give eight of those to Mason, maybe eight of those to Aaron Jones,
32:35flip it, dice it however you want. There is going to be so many more opportunities for fantasy production, specifically touchdowns in this offense.
32:42You have to be excited about Jordan Mason. And I'm buying the dip on Aaron Jones.
32:47He's sliding in conjunction with this Jordan Mason buzz.
32:49I do agree. You want Mason ahead of Jones.
32:52But Matthew, I just you're going to give us a clean backfield where a third guy's not going to be involved.
32:58How many times do we see in fantasy if it's a good offense and it's condensed to just two guys, both of them can pay off their cost?
33:06There's no question. I have Jordan Mason running back 39.
33:09I have 111 overall. So I guess I think on cost, both guys are valuable here.
33:14The one question would be, does Kyler Murray use his legs?
33:17We've been waiting for it. He hasn't really done it as much since coming back from the serious injury.
33:22But in Minnesota, on a one-year prove it deal, you know, this is your chance to resurrect your career.
33:28Do they use him? Do they do some bootlegs?
33:30Do they do they use Kyler Murray's legs around the goal line there?
33:34But again, while his ADP is rising and I think it's important to talk about Mason, the price here on any of
33:40these guys, on Mason, on Bill, you know, Denzel Boston, like all of the price on all these guys is worth it
33:47where you can be like, yeah, let's let's mess around and find out.
33:50But as players go up, by the way, TLBird23 say the Vikings have a favorable schedule for fantasy football playoff weeks.
33:56I haven't actually looked at that yet, Peter. I'm sure you have because you have you are a best ball bro.
34:03You are you are the broiest of best ball bros that I know.
34:06I had Adam Levitan on earlier in the week.
34:09He's also a big best ball bro. But you are you are the broiest of bros.
34:13You do the best ball breakfast every single morning.
34:16Is is. Yeah, I'm just curious if, you know, that's something that.
34:19I just lost my train of thought. Like, what do we talk about here?
34:24Vikings playoff schedule for running backs. Vikings playoff. Yes, because you're a best ball bro.
34:28I was doing so I was doing so many bro jokes that I completely forgot where my train of thought was.
34:34I really am drunk. I apologize, Peter, and apologize to the regulars.
34:37OK, because you do so many best ball drafts, I am sure you have looked at, you know, the week 15, 16, 17 correlation.
34:44So I'm just curious where you think about the Vikings playoff schedule.
34:48That was the point where I was going to.
34:50Yeah. So they get two home games. They're home versus Detroit and then home versus your beloved commanders.
34:55They project for forty six and a half points, which is a decent total.
34:59And then they get the Jets in week 17.
35:02So I know people are getting excited about that matchup.
35:05So, yeah, to a dome game, there to dome games is always nice.
35:09Right. We want to kind of sidestep weather issues there.
35:12And yeah, I think those defenses should be pretty, you know, amenable to running back scoring.
35:16I do like looking at these these totals, these game environments, you know, for managed leagues.
35:21You don't necessarily need to get as in the weeds.
35:24You're only competing against 11 other people in these best ball tournaments.
35:27You might be in a final with six hundred, a thousand, two thousand other teams.
35:31And these little micro edges can really help you out.
35:34No question about that. Peter is one of the best follows, by the way, at Peter Overzet.
35:39If you are into best ball and we appreciate our friends at Underdog who have been partners of ours at Fantasy Life for a long time.
35:47I know Peter's been a big underdog guy for a long time.
35:50Hey, so as people are going up, I'm a Pinot Bro, Mick Genuine.
35:54You're right. Exactly. There are best ball bros like Peter and then I'm a Pinot Bro.
35:58I have yet to find another Pinot Bro. It's usually me and a bunch of moms.
36:03But yeah, it's I am a Pinot Bro. All right.
36:06So as ADP risers go, as people rise, other people need to fall.
36:10And so let's talk about some of the fallers in ADP here.
36:13And we'll have to go a little quicker because I know we're running short on time.
36:18But Arande Gadsden is down 10 spots over the last week.
36:21I mean, he played in the first preseason game last night, which in this particular case, we didn't love that he was
36:27out there because we know they've got Charlie Kohler.
36:30We know they've got David Njoku. Both guys rested last night.
36:33So the veterans who are new to the team didn't play last night.
36:37But the guy that, you know, is familiar with the system played in week one.
36:41Little nervous about Arande Gadsden in this new look Chargers offense.
36:44I'm really nervous, too. And I mean, if you've been reading the quotes here, they are really impressed with Charlie Kohler.
36:50Like this. They talk about this guy all the time.
36:53It's crazy. It really does feel crazy because we were so excited what Gadsden did at the end of last year.
36:59And you're like, oh, it's Mike McDaniel. We've seen what he does with Johnny Smith, what he does with these guys.
37:05Like, all right, blast off. He wasn't wrecked with Darren Waller.
37:08Yeah, I mean, everybody. I mean, this is his guy.
37:11And so I don't know what it is early on, why he's not necessarily seeing the vision to use him as a chess piece out there.
37:19But I do want to react to this one.
37:21I mean, his ADP has dropped and it should.
37:24You know, he was going closer to guys like Hunter Henry, Chigakonkwo.
37:27Guys, we feel really good about both their talent and their environment, their role.
37:31Now, with things getting sketchy, you know, we're talking about two man committees for running backs.
37:36I mean, if you're in a three person committee at tight end, that can be devastating.
37:40We've seen Dalton Kincaid, you know, really take a hit because Dawson Knox is so involved over the years.
37:46If they are using Kolar, if Njoku's mixing in and red zone packages, Gadsden becomes almost completely off the redraft managed radar, in my opinion.
37:53And he's now like more of a late round round 18 dart throw your Terrence Ferguson's.
37:58You know, if you want to take a stab on an Eli Stowers.
38:01I mean, these are like you dream on these guys because of their talent and their profile.
38:06But what the coach and what this preseason usage is telling us is it might not happen for Gadsden.
38:12Julio Think I Am says Harbaugh's drinking the Kolar, which is a pretty, pretty good line, Julio.
38:17And by the way, not a bad team name either.
38:20I think somebody else said me and all the moms is also a good team name.
38:24Hey, as long as we're talking young tight ends, Kenyon Sadiq is down nine spots over the past week.
38:30Peter, like he had the injury. We had Connor Rogers on a week ago who covers the Jets and does such a great job.
38:36And like, you know, he hasn't he hasn't returned to a full practice yet.
38:41And the question is, is he more than worth the risk at this price?
38:45I mean, his consensus ADP is 151. I'm at 150 overall.
38:48But look, Mason Taylor, I think, is competent. Like we don't know how good this offense is going to be.
38:53We're all excited about Kenyon Sadiq like in dynasty.
38:56But makes sense that why this guy is dropping.
38:59Yeah, similar. I still have a little bit more hope for him than, say, compared to Gadsden, because I do think the
39:05path to him being an every down tight end is still clear.
39:08And also, I mean, this is one of the most, you know, physical freak athletes we've seen come into the league from
39:15the tight end position in a long time. Obviously, round one draft capital to me.
39:19If you draft him in your redraft managed league, you're probably tossing him back on the waiver wire because he's just not doing much early on.
39:27But couldn't you see Matthew week 10 and on all of a sudden kind of similar to the Colston Loveland last year,
39:33who also kind of had his early season, you know, hampered by an injury.
39:37Ben Johnson slow played him. And then it's like, oh, my God, he's a revelation down the stretch.
39:42He's not going to be a revelation in the Jets offense.
39:45But could he could he pop? Could he give us a few spike weeks, weeks 15, 16, 17?
39:50I don't mind tacking him on as a tight end three in best ball builds.
39:55You know, give me a George Kittle, a Chigakonkwo, and then I'll toss on, you know, Sadiq as kind of the mystery box upside at the end.
40:02Yeah, I don't mind him in best ball, but I think you're right.
40:06In managed leagues, he just I think he's at the moment in a normal, you know, 12 team league.
40:12I think he's undraftable as well as Big Caboose, 4-3-2-1 says Mason Taylor is also solid.
40:16Yes, he is. That's the point. And just how good is this offense going to be with the Jets?
40:22One guy that's down six spots over the past week is Jacoby Myers.
40:25And I don't know if this is a result of I'm not sure I agree with this.
40:30I think this is because I don't think Jacoby Myers has done anything wrong.
40:34Adam Pfeiffer wrote a great article for FantasyLife.com on some.
40:37He wrote one article called The Worst Draft Pick in Every Round.
40:41And one of them is Brian Thomas, where he talked about how the fact that once Jacoby Myers showed up, it's just
40:47nothing but go routes for Brian Thomas Jr. And like every single press conference, it seems like Liam Cohen is talking up Parker Washington.
40:54So I have Washington the highest of all the Jaguars wide receivers, Peter.
40:58But it feels like the hype on Parker Washington is causing Jacoby Myers to fall.
41:02And this is a guy who was a top 25 wide receiver in his final seven games of the Jags last year.
41:08Yeah, to me, this is the push pull of the Parker Washington stuff.
41:12And we are in peak Parker Washington mania. You can't log into X without seeing more Parker Washington hype.
41:17They're now saying he gets up at, you know, 3.30 in the morning to go work out.
41:22I mean, it's out of control. He's drinking egg yolk.
41:25Yeah, of course. The whole thing. All of it.
41:28Yeah. And it's I mean, Jacoby Myers also got paid a ton of money.
41:32This has been a guy. He has been successful with the Patriots.
41:35He earned targets with the Raiders. And then the Jags said, we need this guy.
41:40So I'm with you. I think the death of Jacoby Myers has been, you know, greatly overstated.
41:44And if there is a fly in the ointment for the two more expensive guys in the Jags, Parker Washington and Brian
41:51Thomas, it's because Jacoby Myers does what he always does, which is earn targets when he's out there.
41:56I think you could see something similar, Matthew, to what we've seen with Keenan Allen over the past couple of years where
42:02it's not like he's dominating fantasy, but I call him like a vampire, right?
42:06He's just pulling enough targets away from Roma Dunze, from DJ Moore to away from Lad McConkie and QJ to not make
42:13those guys as potent of fantasy assets as we'd like.
42:16Could Jacoby Myers be the vampire here? I think he could be, but I think he might be better than that.
42:22Like, I think there's a very real scenario where he's the number two Jaguars wide receiver that you want after Parker Washington.
42:28Remember, this is a guy that during that stretch, once, you know, weeks 12 through 18, once he got to Jacksonville, 24%
42:34target share, led the team in end zone targets.
42:37Now, I get it. Travis Hunter was hurt during that entire time and he's back healthy, but we're hearing different reports about Travis Hunter.
42:44He's going to play more defense than offense. Who knows with him?
42:47I just, I agree with you. I just feel like Jacoby Myers is one of those guys, whether it was in New
42:53England, whether it was in Las Vegas, whether it was here in Jacksonville, he always gets disrespected.
42:58He just never gets, he's a good player. And I think you're right that the Jaguars realize this because not only did
43:05they go trade for him, but they paid the man.
43:08So I'm at wide receiver 45 and I think there's a decent chance he outperforms that rank.
43:12And I am inside my top 100. One guy that this makes sense as to why he's down.
43:18Um, Rufus 4k says, I'm worried Parker Washington. Yeah, but the regulars are unbelievable, Peter.
43:22I know you have a, you have a great audience as well.
43:25Your discord, um, your best ball bros, but, uh, the regulars of the happy hour are unbelievable.
43:30I encourage everyone to join my discord, the regular, the fantasy football happy hour discord.
43:35It's an, it's an unbelievably supportive group. They're very, very funny.
43:38It's an active chat. That's constantly going about people helping each other with their fantasy teams, with trades, with draft strategy.
43:44So, uh, highly recommend joining it. It's free fantasy football, happy hour, um, uh, discord.
43:48Okay. Um, and, uh, stop it. Sweep the leg.
43:51All right. Um, last one who's down over the, uh, last one that was down over the past week is Alec Pierce.
43:57He's down over almost five spots over the last week.
44:00Again, it's just this injury keeps lingering. There's rumors out there about Keenan Allen joining the Colts as well.
44:05They're kicking the tires on him. Uh, curious where you are on Alec Pierce.
44:09He makes a lot of sense in best ball, but talking about managed leagues here, we know the upside of Pierce, but
44:16the downside is, is, is driving his price down.
44:18Yeah. It's, it's, uh, I mean, it's not the perfect, uh, comp, but it is kind of similar to the flippening we're
44:25seeing with Josh, uh, or Jonathan Stewart and geez, now I'm messing all these names up.
44:29Jonathan Brooks. Jonathan Brooks and Chuba, uh, with Josh Downs.
44:32I once played in a fantasy football league with Jonathan Stewart.
44:35This is a true story. I once, uh, he was, it was pretty good.
44:39We did a celebrity league for ESPN once and, uh, we were looking for people and, uh, Denny Hamlin, the NASCAR driver
44:46was, uh, was, was in the league. And I think, I think it was Denny.
44:50I know we had a NASCAR driver in the league and I think it was Denny Hamlin who was just like, oh,
44:56by the way, can, um, can I bring my, my buddy, Jonathan Stewart wants to play.
45:01Okay. We were like casting for celebrities. And so anyway, he was, whoever ran his team was pretty good.
45:06You want to talk about the ultimate two person backfield, him and D'Angelo Williams.
45:10I mean, they were the one to punch to end all, uh, but yeah, Alec Pierce, this one's interesting with, you know,
45:17they were saying, did he get the second, you know, injection shot, you know, coming off the surgery and then Ballard comes
45:23out and says he didn't get it. And so we're like, it has anything changed?
45:27It does still seem legitimately murky as when we're going to see him.
45:31They are not saying he's going to be ready week one.
45:34I think this could spill over into the start of the season.
45:38He has a role on this team. That's not going to go away, right?
45:42This isn't like a rookie who is going to get a slow start because they miss training camp.
45:47Like once he's ready to go, he's going to be in there.
45:50He's going to be the field stretcher. They paid him a ton of money, but I do want to be pretty price
45:57sensitive with him specifically in redraft managed leagues. I'm buying the dip in best ball, though, because if he misses a couple
46:03of games, whatever, I can deal with that. But give me this guy who can be the deep threat.
46:08We know his game is super fantasy friendly. He can earn targets.
46:12He's now going after pick 100 in some of these drafts.
46:15To me, that's a buying opportunity as people get really excited about Josh Downs, which I am too.
46:20But the nice thing about Alec Pierce, you mentioned the Keenan Allen thing.
46:24If they sign Keenan Allen to cover for Alec Pierce, that's probably going to hurt Josh Downs more than it's ever going
46:30to hurt Alec Pierce when he comes back. So I think you're kind of insulated.
46:35And I was skeptical of Alec Pierce price for most of the summer because no one was budging on the injury news.
46:41Now it's finally slipping. And I'm like, OK, I can finally get some Alec Pierce shares.
46:45The name dropler, by the way, Rufus4AK calling me the name dropler.
46:49Well done, Rufus. That's a good one. I agree with you.
46:52I'm completely buying the dip on Alec Pierce. Like, he'll be out there.
46:56I think people, we have such short memories in fantasy football.
46:59And whereas Ed X, as Sauvignon Blanc kicks the poop out of Pinot, this is absolutely the worst take of the day for the Y, by the way.
47:07Although I will say Sauvignon Blanc over Chardonnay. If I'm ranking my whites, if I'm ranking my whites, Peter Overzet, it's Pinot Grigio, obviously.
47:14And then I think it's Sauvignon Blanc. Then it's Sancerre.
47:17I like, you know, like some champagne or some Prosecco.
47:20And then we get down to Chardonnay. I'm just not a Chardonnay guy.
47:23And if I'd rank my whites, it would be kind of how it is ADP.
47:28Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, then Colson Loveland. Also fair.
47:30Also fair. At any rate, Alec Pierce, I'm at 96.
47:33So I'm above, you know, kind of where he's going in the consensus.
47:37And I think people forget that this is a guy that, you know, just a few months ago got paid over $100 million.
47:44Like, Alec Pierce is very good. This is somebody that, you know, we've talked about on this show a lot.
47:49Shout out to my guy, Jay Croucher, who, by the way, makes his triumphant return next Tuesday.
47:54Regulars, FYI. Next Tuesday, Jay Croucher back at the happy hour set.
47:58So I'm with you. I'm buying the dip here on him.
48:01This is somebody who had 40% of the team end zone targets in 2025.
48:05And I think if I hope the injury continues to linger because that'll continue driving his price down.
48:10But Alec Pierce can play football. We think this Colson offense is going to be pretty good.
48:15And again, we've got a long season of football.
48:17He's going to be a big part of one of the better offenses in football.
48:22It's time for last call, Peter, which means we're looking at our regular season passing yard leader.
48:27I'm curious who you have. Proud Fantasy Life investor Joe Burrow is at plus 750.
48:31He's the odds on favorite, along with Jared Goff and Dak Prescott.
48:34All of them are at plus 750. Stafford at 9-1.
48:37Mahomes is 12-1. Herbert 15-1. Curious where you're going on this list.
48:41Who do you like for regular season passing yards leader?
48:44Yeah, there's some fun bets in here. You know, it is kind of always crazy, you know, how we view the guys
48:50who run in fantasy, you know, so much more highly.
48:53You know, Lamar Jackson at 40-1. Kyler, Jaden Daniels.
48:55But we know this is passing. I kind of want to kick the tires on CJ Stroud, right?
49:01Like what he did as a rookie, as a passer was so exciting.
49:04They have all of their guys back healthy this year with Tank Dell back in the fold.
49:09You know, Jalen Noel, maybe we get a year or two leap from him.
49:13What if this defense isn't quite as good? What if the run game isn't going and they say, hey, CJ Stroud, we know what you can do.
49:21Let's let you cook. You know me. I'm always kind of looking for a long shot here.
49:26I'm not going to take the safe play up here with a Goff or a Dak.
49:30How about a little CJ Stroud sprinkle at plus 35?
49:33I like the boldness of the call. Here's a question for you, Peter.
49:37You know, because we love at the show for years and years and years, we've loved Tank Dell.
49:42You mentioned him. Like Tank Dell's practicing in full.
49:45He is free in drafts. He I mean, like no one is talking about Tank Dell.
49:49Like there's obviously everyone loves Nico Collins. You've got Jalen Noel, as you said.
49:53I think Dave Montgomery, thinking about the Texans offense, I think Dave Montgomery is underpriced because I think we talked.
49:59I talked about this with Levitan as well. Like you're going to look up and Dave Montgomery is going to have like 250 to 300 touches this year.
50:07And not going to be efficient, but he's going to 1200 total yards and eight to 10 touchdowns and be a very
50:14solid RB2 that you're going to get in the sixth or seventh round.
50:17But should we be taking a shot on Tank Dell?
50:20I think so. Yeah. I mean, isn't he the perfect like take a peek guy to like just see how he looks
50:27week one, week two, how involved he is. If he looks like he did as a rookie, that is an incredible asset.
50:33I mean, CJ Stroud is a rookie, finished eighth in the league in passing yards.
50:37That was as a rookie with less weapons. So I'm going to just dream here.
50:41Matthew, who are you going to go with with your passing yard leader?
50:45I'm going with Drake May at 15 to one.
50:48I mean, this is a team that throw through a ton last year as well.
50:52The addition of A.J. Brown. One of the things that I talked about in my 100 facts column, which again, free on
50:58fantasylife.com, I'm a company man, is just how how much Drake May throws deep and how good how good A.J.
51:04Brown is on the deep ball. Right. And so you you you add A.J.
51:08Brown. It's another year in in in the system and Josh McDaniel system.
51:12You know, they've got the Pop Douglas Kayshawn Booty's having a nice camp.
51:16Kyle Williams. They've got they've got a lot of guys there led by A.J.
51:20Brown. And I also think we've heard a lot of talk about the fact that Patriots schedule this year is much, much tougher.
51:26As a vet, the regular says, it buries ADP equals always drunk on Pinot.
51:30Well done. That's true. That is what ADP stands for, at least on this show.
51:35But my my talk on my thought on Drake May here is just, again, like tougher schedule means they're going to have to throw more.
51:42Well done, producer team throwing up the TGIF graphic there.
51:45So, yeah, give me some Drake May at 15 to one to be the regular season passing yards leader.
51:50Hey, Peter, not a surprise. You are awesome. As always, we will continue to read the newsletter for free at fantasylife.com and check out all of your work.
51:58We will follow you at Peter Overzet. We'll go check out your YouTube channel as well.
52:03And, you know, thanks for doing this, man. Of course.
52:06Yeah. And also make sure you check out the Fantasy Life Show.
52:09I've been doing that three days a week with Kendall Balanzuela.
52:12We've been having Dwayne on. We've been doing a ton of draft content.
52:16That's the MB Fantasy Life Show. There you go.
52:19Well, you don't have to go home, but you can stay here.
52:22It's closing time for Peter Overzet. I'm Matthew Barry.
52:25Back on Monday with Russell Wilson. Peace out.
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