Mind of Mansion - Breece Hall warning shots with Wolf
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1 hr 13 min
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Jul 29, 2026
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Wed, July 29, 2026
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Episode Transcript
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1:00Ba-da-ba-ba-ba. Oh my God. Wolf Trellis Herd. You have asked for him.
1:04He is our most prolific writer at PlayerProfiler.com. He is here with me today.
1:08We're going to look at the underdog ADPs and all these best ball ADPs, fast draft and others.
1:14And those are the baked ADPs, fully baked. They have been means tested, multiple tournaments throughout this offseason.
1:20So those ADPs are the most market accurate. And the seasonal redraft ADPs, they're just getting started.
1:25We've got high stakes, NFFC. These tournaments are just getting off the ground, just starting to fill.
1:30And now we're starting to see those ADPs coalesce.
1:33But the best ball ADPs are sort of the most market efficient of all the ADPs.
1:38How do we leverage that in Dynasty? How do we leverage that in our seasonal leagues, our home leagues, beat our buddies,
1:45beat our league mates for many years, our coworkers?
1:48There's a lot to talk about today on the My Dimension program.
1:52All right, Wolf, let's kick it off. Leveraging best ball ADP, specifically in Dynasty.
1:56I mean, this is something I just did in Dynasty.
1:59I just completed my last Dynasty startup of the year.
2:02Unless someone wants to email me, podfather at rotounderworld.com or shout at me on social media at fantasy underscore mansion.
2:09You'll notice I'm a little more active on Twitter now.
2:12I've been active on Reddit. I'm throwing a lot of takes out there right now.
2:17We clipped my quote that Parker Washington is the next Jerry Rice.
2:20That's not what I said on the show, but now all of a sudden it's morphed into that and that sounds fine to me.
2:28And so we just finished this startup and used some sort of redraft, best ball, current season ADPs in order to get
2:35value, find the best value in the startup. AJ Brown, Derrick Henry, Mike Evans, those are some of the guys I drafted
2:42several rounds after their seasonal league ADP. They were still available in Dynasty.
2:46So we'll pull that up on the screen. And I want to get your thoughts on AJ Brown, both in seasonal leagues
2:53and Dynasty, as well as Derrick Henry, as well as Mike Evans.
2:56No, of course. And it's funny you say the last one, right?
3:00Because everybody always says that. And then until somebody hits them up, hey, I got another startup coming.
3:06And then it's just too alluring to turn down sometimes.
3:09Oh, I won't. No, I know. If you invite me, I will join.
3:13I want to do another one. I just don't have another one in the pipeline.
3:18Hopefully a member of the audience will put one in my pipeline.
3:22I would love to join. I am not addicted yet, but I enjoy it.
3:26It's nice to at least have one. At one point I had three going.
3:30That was also very, very fun. But just having one going at all times is always, I think, a good thing.
3:37Good thing for your life health. Absolutely. You and I did one recently and that was a good one.
3:43But no, you're absolutely right. We kind of talked about it pre-show.
3:47Dynasty managers just, they hate guys when they get older, right?
3:50And you can use that to your advantage all day long.
3:54So if you're starting off your drafts early, you're building a young core.
3:58You know, obviously those guys at the top of the draft are going to be studs as well.
4:03So you kind of backfill your starting lineup with some of these veterans.
4:08And that's how you can start crushing it right from your run going into competing for a championship, right?
4:14So, you know, like you talked about A.J. Brown, which is funny because he's not even that old.
4:19He's 29 years old, right? He's not like a Derrick Henry or a Mike Evans.
4:24Those guys are on the wrong side of 30.
4:27But A.J. Brown is still relatively young. You know, I think he'll give you a couple more years of some good production, which is nice.
4:35And, you know, people think he kind of fell off last year.
4:38That's not true, right? From week 10 on through the fantasy championship, he averaged over 16 fantasy points a game.
4:45He was a wide receiver seven. Okay, so that's still elite.
4:48He can still command an elite target share. And now he's going from a run first offense to Drake May, who was
4:55basically first in pass yards per attempt, passer rating, completion percentage.
4:59And he was fourth in deep ball completion percentage, right?
5:02And what does A.J. Brown do well? Go down the field, beat man coverage on those vertical downfield routes, play some bully ball.
5:09He's going to – I think he's going to crush this year.
5:13I'm pretty high on A.J. Brown. I think I have him like wide receiver seven or eight overall for 2026.
5:19So I love the pick. It's fantastic to get him as like a wide receiver three in dynasty.
5:25That guy's going to crush it this year. It was hard to believe.
5:295.04 in the startup. That's where he went, okay.
5:32I'll tell you, I had no plans to draft A.J.
5:35Brown. I had no plans to draft Derek Henry.
5:38So I got to come in with plans to draft Mike Evans in startups.
5:42That's not – no. I mean if there's a young stud available and I'll draft him, fine.
5:47But this is what they were giving me. The draft was giving me this and I was happily accepting it.
5:54It seems to be that rounds five through ten, rounds five through ten, which is – that's when I started drafting old guys.
6:01I get my young superstars early. Jameer Gibbs, Justin Herber, A.
6:04Chan, Flowers, those guys. And then I've noticed that that pocket, five through ten.
6:09Round five, I drafted A.J. Brown. Round ten, I drafted Chris Godwin.
6:12And then after Chris Godwin, you can start going back to young players.
6:17Round 11, 11.04, Jonathan Brooks. Now, I wouldn't be able to get Jonathan Brooks now, right?
6:22But you have to also be participating. You have to go to Fast Draft.
6:26You have to join the rabbit. See where these guys are actually going in real time.
6:31Because even if you have the ADP data, like for a guy like Jonathan Brooks, that's not good enough.
6:37You have to actually watch these – like recent drafts with A.J.
6:41Brown. I'm seeing A.J. Brown go at the one-two turn, whereas ADP is like 18.
6:45His ADP suggests he's going middle of the second round.
6:49But then you go in actual drafts, you see, oh, this guy is going at the one-two turn.
6:54The steam with A.J. Brown is hot. And we haven't seen how high he's going to go.
7:00I think people are starting to do the math on what Drake May does well, what A.J.
7:05Brown does well, how productive he was with Jalen Hurts.
7:08Jalen Hurts is not the thrower of football that Drake May is.
7:12Drake May has basically the Jalen Hurts skill set, plus he's a much better, more accurate downfield thrower than Jalen Hurts.
7:19So now you start to figure – okay, wait a second.
7:22So who's his target competition? Okay, who's his quarterback?
7:25Okay, what's their pace of play going to be?
7:28Okay, okay, wait a second. We've got to get A.J.
7:31Brown on our fantasy teams. And I think there's a little bit of that with Mike Evans, too.
7:36Wait a second. Let me get this straight. So, okay, so Kittle's healthy, fine, good.
7:41That is okay. They play in a different zone of the football field, right?
7:46You have Kittle up the middle, and then you have Mike Evans out wide.
7:50Mike Evans is always parked out wide. What does Kyle Shanahan do?
7:54Well, he gets creative. He's probably going to move Mike Evans a little bit more in motion this year.
8:00Career-high motion rate, probably career-high slot percentage with Mike Evans.
8:03What does that mean? Well, imagine Mike Evans is a big slot.
8:07We've never seen what that looks like. You could do a little bit of that, right, in San Francisco.
8:13It's not like Christian Kirk's going to have 100% slot rate or 100% snap rate.
8:17Get out of here. So that's the sweet spot.
8:20You could always get superstars in their prime in the first five picks of a startup.
8:25And then you could always go back to youth for rounds 10 and beyond.
8:30But that pocket there, round six, round seven, the young guys that are available are unproven.
8:35And so a lot of uncertainty. The old guys are, I think, where you get the most bang for your buck.
8:41I'm completely in lockstep with you. I agree. And speaking of Mike Evans, you don't have to sell me on him.
8:48You can see from the hat, right, where my fandom is.
8:51So Wolf Trellisard is wearing a Buccaneers hat. Yes, correct.
8:54It sucks seeing him leave this year. But talk about great landing spots.
8:59I think he's going to smash this year in that Shanahan offense.
9:02You know, like you talked about, he's going to play the X role, obviously.
9:07And over the last 10 years, there's been basically no better X receiver in football than Mike Evans, right?
9:13He routinely smashes and puts up big numbers. We all know the thousand yard streak.
9:17But last year, you know, he dealt with the injuries.
9:21The streak came to an end, right? And on a per target basis, though, he was still really elite.
9:27He was very good on those go routes. He was very good on deep outs.
9:31And that was with Baker Mayfield. If you've seen quarterback, you've seen all the injuries Baker Mayfield had last year, right?
9:38And he struggled down the stretch on the football, particularly on deep balls.
9:42Now, with Brock Purdy, Brock Purdy ranked first in deep ball catchable pass rate last year.
9:47That's going to coalesce with Mike Evans' games very well down the field, right?
9:51So that's a great landing spot. I think Purdy's going to get him the ball where he needs it to so he
9:58can go up, get these downfield plays over the top.
10:01He's going to be a beast in the red zone.
10:05I've talked about it, and I know other people have had this take too.
10:09But, you know, he essentially could be this year's Devontae Adams in that offense.
10:13Yeah, that's better, though. More yards, right? More targets.
10:16There's no puka there in San Francisco. So I was on social media yesterday doing some tweeting.
10:22Shador Sanders has a music video out, and so I made sure Chuck Bass saw it.
10:27I was wondering what Deshaun Watson's single is coming out soon.
10:30I wonder what that's going to be about. This episode is brought to you by State Farm.
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11:18Chevrolet. Together, let's drive. And of course, I posted my quote that Parker Washington is the next Jerry Rice.
11:24That's what it's become. That's what it's become. And we're talking about J.K.
11:28Dobbins. And I was on Dynasty Reddit talking about drafting J.K.
11:31Dobbins. And someone said, you know, drafting J.K. Dobbins is probably the single worst thing you can do for your fantasy.
11:38It's hyperbolic, like this is the stone worst guy to draft.
11:41You can see where this is coming from, right?
11:44They just drafted Jonah Coleman. If you like Jonah Coleman, you could interpret this as the end for J.K.
11:50Dobbins, right? I could see it. A lot of people want this.
11:54As soon as a guy gets past the age apex and he hasn't really shown his elite ceiling.
11:59We know J.K. Dobbins has the elite ceiling coming out of Ohio State.
12:04Never really showed it. Now past the age apex.
12:06Has had injuries. Okay. You've been injured multiple times.
12:09You've never delivered on your potential. Now you're past the age apex.
12:13We have an electric satellite back in R.J. Harvey with a well above average target share for even a starting running back.
12:20And he's not even starting. So his targets per route run, really impressive.
12:24And now we have Jonah Coleman coming in and he's big and he can handle all the between the tackles work.
12:31We don't need J.K. Dobbins. We're moving on in our head.
12:34We're moving on for J.K. Dobbins. Get out of here.
12:37Except sometimes NFL teams are not ready to move on.
12:40And so that was one where I was like, okay, here's some more guys.
12:45Not only Mike Evans, but we can, yeah, you mentioned Devontae Adams.
12:49I drafted Devontae Adams at Dynasty Startups this year.
12:51Why not? I mean, Chris Godwin was the last old player I drafted in this particular startup, getting Chris Godwin everywhere.
12:58And at one point I was like, you know what?
13:01I think I'm going to be all in on Chris Godwin this year.
13:05And that means I'm just sort of going to be neutral on Ibuka.
13:09I've come around thinking Baker, a healthy Baker Mayfield, given how banged up he was last year, a healthy Baker Mayfield can
13:16absolutely support two elite producers at the wide receiver position.
13:19So I need to get out ahead on Ibuka as well.
13:23And then so that's where I'm at with that.
13:26And I think most people understand. Yeah, Godwin, he's teed up for one last ride, right?
13:31One last ride. Just like one last startup. No, I'm done with the summer.
13:35No, one more. J.K. Dobbins. I feel like this is not just one last ride for J.K.
13:40Dobbins. J.K. Dobbins is just the starter in Denver.
13:43They drafted a depth piece on day three in Jonah Coleman.
13:47Understandable. They have a specific role in mind for R.J.
13:50Harvey. Unlike some other running backs where maybe you can see them growing from year one to year two, their role expanding.
13:57I don't think R.J. Harvey is equipped to have his role expanded.
14:01I think he got to get a big target share last year.
14:04He's going to have about that target share this year.
14:07And good for him. He has that role. Great.
14:10Rotate him in and get him out in space and throw him the football.
14:15Great. That's what's going to happen with J.R. There's not a lot of upside there with R.J.
14:20Harvey. There's not a ceiling that he can break through, an archetype that he can move into.
14:25This is what he is. And fine. But this year and maybe even next year in who knows how long, as long
14:32as he's healthy and in order to get past all these injuries, he's had to really work hard on his body and his strength and conditioning.
14:40If he makes it to this point, it's sort of like the Odyssey where J.K.
14:45Dobbins makes it to this point. And now you're like, oh, he's been through everything and he still has the 4-3-9 body.
14:52He doesn't run a 4-3-9 anymore, but he came into the league with a 4-3-9.
14:57Like this guy, when he's at peak performance, is super fast and big and could do everything.
15:02And he's not that old, 27 years old. And everyone around the team is talking about how much they love him, what
15:09a leader he is and how the team is going to rely on him this year.
15:14And there's just cognitive dissonance in fantasy football. Like, no, this isn't actually happening.
15:19Jonah Coleman is the guy. We need to get excited about him.
15:22I don't know what Denver's talking about. But this is what I say.
15:26On draft day, you don't know what motivates a lot of these picks.
15:31A lot of times, the general manager is going to look at the depth chart and be like, we don't have an RB3.
15:38We got to upgrade the RB3. Audrey Kessama is not good enough.
15:42Tyler Baddy is not good enough. We got to upgrade the RB3.
15:45And we're going to do that at some point in day three.
15:49We're going to upgrade linebacker and this and corner.
15:52And we're going to get a bunch of depth pieces.
15:55But it's news to me that there's a whole community of people out there clamoring for Player X to be a starter.
16:02That's not what I had in mind when I drafted him.
16:05But okay, fantasy gamers, you go do you. You go get excited about Jonah Coleman.
16:10But that's not even the reason we drafted him, to come in and be a starter right away.
16:16What are you even talking about? No, and shout out for the Odyssey reference.
16:20We went and saw that yesterday. Phenomenal film. That was excellent.
16:24Where did you see it? Not in the true IMAX, unfortunately.
16:27So I'm in Tampa. The closest one is down in Fort Lauderdale.
16:31I just couldn't make the trip down there. I wish I could.
16:35Okay, well, there's a couple of things on that.
16:38There are IMAX theaters. There's an IMAX theater about 20 minutes from me.
16:42But it's not the towering 75 millimeter IMAX. Right.
16:44It's more of just a straight up digital IMAX.
16:47It's the most common IMAX type theater you're going to find around the United States.
16:52That crops it and makes it very elongated. But a lot of the heads are chopped off.
16:57And the sort of top quarter of the screen is missing, essentially, the way they crop it.
17:03So for me, I have to go into the city, the Lincoln Center in New York to see it on the full
17:1075 millimeter, the full height and width dimensions of the movie.
17:13I'm going to do that. So I'm trying to hopefully do that next week.
17:17I hope you can. I've seen enough YouTube videos with the making of it.
17:22And I've read the Odyssey myself. And I always thought it was a cool story.
17:27I was always into mythology when I was a kid.
17:30So I'm like, I need to make the investment to go into the city to see this in the format that it was designed to be showcased in.
17:39I'm happy to do it. I'll make a journey of it.
17:42This is a once every few years movie going experience.
17:45And I don't go to the movies much anymore.
17:48And so now I'm like, well, OK, I'm going to treat going to the movies like a big deal, like how people
17:55treated going to the movies, probably like in the 30s.
17:58Right. It was a big deal to go to the movies.
18:02And so now that's sort of how my brain is going to work.
18:06I'm going to go and I want to go see a cinematic experience.
18:10It'll give you that. So I hope you do make the trip because it was it was excellent.
18:15I'm a big Nolan guy and the movie just knocked my socks off.
18:19So what is your favorite Christopher Nolan movie? My favorite movie, hands down, is Interstellar.
18:24I will die on that hill all day long.
18:27That is my favorite film of all time. I like it.
18:30I like Interstellar. Matt Damon's character in that was very random.
18:34But it was fine. It was cool seeing him in like a supporting role, barely a supporting role even.
18:40I just can't do it. This is my own problems with my own.
18:44We all have problems. My own problem with my own suspension of disbelief as it relates to Matthew McConaughey in a lead role.
18:51I just can't do it. I mean, I like the movie.
18:55The movie is a great movie. I geeked out in the movie.
18:58It was a real sort of brain exercise. And it was a puzzle.
19:03And I really I engage with it very much.
19:05I'll always say it's a great, great movie. Probably not my top three because Leo in Inception as a lead and the
19:12hallway scene where the hallway starts turning like a tunnel and starts flipping upside down.
19:17And they're fighting sideways and they're fighting upside down in this hotel hallway.
19:21That got me. I was like, I don't know how they did that.
19:25I don't know how. I don't know if there's CGI involved.
19:29Later that I learned like Nolan hates CGI. I didn't know that at the time.
19:33I just imagined it was some sort of CGI computer thing they were doing.
19:38And then to find out they did that manually.
19:41I was like, oh, my God. Oh, my God.
19:43So and then Memento blew my mind. So it's Memento blew my mind.
19:48So I had to put Memento in my top three and Inceptions in my top three.
19:53And then it's I number three is wide open.
19:55And I'm I'm hoping it's going to be the Odyssey.
19:59I'm expecting it. In fact, I'm holding that spot open for the Odyssey.
20:03I'll say that. I like it. And let me know your thoughts when you see it.
20:08I'm curious to see how much you enjoy it.
20:10So I'm surprised also that given how good Memento was now that you see, oh, these characters reappear in movies all the time.
20:18He's bringing Matt Damon back. Where where is Guy Pearce?
20:21Like, I'm like, where is Guy Pearce? Guy Pearce never fired as an actor the way many who watch Memento and loved it thought he would.
20:29I was like, why doesn't Chris Nolan bring back Guy Pearce?
20:33Was it was he was he an Oppenheimer? Wouldn't I would definitely have put Guy Pearce in Oppenheimer?
20:38Guy Pearce looks like a guy would be an Oppenheimer.
20:41That's true. I saw something a couple of years ago where Guy Pearce said that he basically hated his acting in that
20:48movie and he thought he did a bad job.
20:51So maybe Nolan shared those similar, you know, sentiments.
20:54But maybe that's just Guy Pearce being critical of himself.
20:57You know what I mean? I thought he was great.
21:00Obviously, that movie has a ton of fans, but maybe he was just a little too critical of his own work there.
21:07That's interesting. That is that's fascinating. I didn't know why.
21:10OK, it's what there are certain like there are certain players in fantasy that led you to a championship and they can forever do no wrong.
21:18I'm sure Mike Evans is a fan of the Buccaneers can do no wrong.
21:23Tom Brady can do no wrong for me as a Patriots fan, as well as Gronk and many others.
21:29Right. Mike Vrabel. Right. Mike Vrabel can do no wrong.
21:32Well, not yet. If he screws up the Patriots, though, that's the only we see.
21:37That's the thing. He could do no wrong unless he comes back and screws up the Patriots.
21:42Then it's like, OK, well, you just erased all your goodwill there.
21:46And then so for me also with movies, Guy Pearce, I'm always going to give him benefit of the doubt.
21:52It's like, OK, you have memento. You'll have to benefit the doubt on that.
21:56So, all right, let's go to the next item on the list in terms of the arbitrage plays.
22:02Drafted at a particular ADP where you believe you can get a similar player, similar ceiling, similar floor later.
22:08The first one is Dak Prescott. Yeah. So when you and I were talking about this, I kind of took a nice redraft focus on this.
22:16Right. So, you know, Dak had a great year last year.
22:20He's getting steamed up a little bit. I think he's going somewhere around QB 10, 11 or around that range.
22:26Kind of same thing with Stafford, too, obviously, after his MVP season.
22:30But the guy that I would look to just kind of bypass those two and get similar is Jared Goff.
22:36OK, and you can get him a couple rounds later.
22:39I think his ADP right now is QB 17, QB 18 in that range, which I just think is absurd.
22:46You know, he has three straight seasons of over 4,500 yards passing, 30 touchdowns.
22:50He has finished, I think, QB 6, 7 and 8 the last couple of years.
22:55He just continues to put up ridiculous numbers. And you can get him as, you know, a late round pick, you know,
23:02close to guys like Tyler Shuck, stuff like that.
23:04I just think it's kind of crazy that Dak and Stafford are going much higher when you can get a guy like
23:11Goff who can put up similar or better numbers.
23:14And he's consistently done it since he's been in Detroit.
23:17Not only that, but this year, but they have a phenomenal strength of schedule.
23:22They're like, you know, top three easiest across the board.
23:25He's going to be playing in a ton of domes late, which we all know is great for Jared Goff.
23:31So, you know, I'll let others take Dak. I'll let others chase the MVP season with Stafford.
23:37I'll wait. Give me Goff who just keeps putting up top 10 numbers.
23:41Well, if you look at 2024, that's what you're hoping for, right?
23:44That's a Dak season. Dak's had several 20 plus fantasy points per game seasons, but he's not going to run as more.
23:51He ran more earlier in his career as all mobile quarterbacks do.
23:55When he came into the league as a guy that's going to run for three, 400 yards, five touchdowns, then I didn't wind it back.
24:03Now it's 300 yards. Now it's 200 yards, but always the threat to run for five touchdowns.
24:08That's the thing. When you look at the rushing in the last five seasons, Goff has only run for a touchdown once, right?
24:16One season, 2023, he had two rushing touchdowns that season, but I mean, he's got just a couple of hundred rushing yards overall the last five seasons.
24:24So that's really the difference as throwers. They're the same guy, right?
24:28They're both putting up 4,500 yards like clockwork and full seasons, 65% completion percentage, 7.5 plus yards per attempt.
24:34But if you get that peak season, like Goff gave you in 2024, which is what we're expecting this year, then he
24:41could easily be 20 fantasy points per game. And then that's essentially what you're getting from, from Dak Prescott.
24:47It's probably going to go maybe 20.5 with an extra few couple of rushing yard games and a couple of rushing touchdowns
24:54that you're not getting with Jared Goff. But Jared Goff could actually throw for, let's say three or 400 more yards with Tesla and Jamison Williams.
25:02And I'm on Ross St. Brown. And finally, a healthy Sam Laporta and Jameer Gibbs out of the backfield.
25:08It's a dream scenario. It's a dream scenario for Jared Goff, both the team, the structure of his receiving core.
25:14He has everything. There's no weaknesses. You've got the perfect field stretcher with size and athleticism and Tesla, and you've got that on the other side as well.
25:23So there's maximum width that the secondaries have to be accountable for, the opposing secondary has to account for.
25:29Then you've got the guys running underneath in Laporta and Amon Ra, and then they're end up clearing out for Jameer Gibbs.
25:36And so it puts linebackers in an impossible situation.
25:39It's putting safeties in an impossible situation. Think about all the ground they have to cover.
25:44There's no team where safeties have to cover more ground than this team, right?
25:48I have to help. If I'm a safety, I feel like I have to help on Gibbs diagonally toward the line of scrimmage.
25:55And then I go the other way diagonally to help behind me on Tesla and Williams.
26:00And you're a team that has to always be scoring points in domes because your defense is one of the worst in
26:07the league, certainly one of the worst secondaries in the league through just bad drafting and bad luck that the players you
26:14are drafting when you are investing big time draft capital.
26:17These guys are getting arrested. These guys are getting washed out of the league.
26:22These guys are getting hurt. So this has just been a money pit, the cornerback position, but the ultimate money pit.
26:28They just keep throwing resources at it and getting nothing back in return in Detroit.
26:33And who's the main beneficiary of that? It's Jared Goff's fantasy stats, you know, much to the chagrin of Lions fans.
26:40Nothing you can do. You're going to lose games, Lions fans.
26:43You're going to lose games, 35, 34. That is going to happen, but Goff's going to get numbers.
26:49And so it's a similar setup, man. Very similar setup, team setup, receiver setup.
26:53Like, you know, supporting cast setup, everything set up between Prescott and Goff.
26:57I mean, it's a great call. And yet a couple rounds later, you can get Goff easily, just target Goff.
27:04And Goff's also easy to stack with, right? Of course, Lamb and Amon Ra go in a similar ADP zone.
27:10Maybe you can get Lamb a little bit later than Amon Ra.
27:14So a little bit more flexibility there. But then, I mean, Jamison Williams, much easier to acquire.
27:19Much, much easier to acquire than George Pickens. And I think you're better off with Laporta than you are with Jake Ferguson.
27:26Yeah. Flournoy and Tesla. This is a very similar asset.
27:29This is a wide receiver three on a team that's going to play more 11 personnel than most teams.
27:35So you're going to get a lot of 11 personnel in Detroit and Dallas.
27:39Probably what would be viewed as a normal rate of 11 personnel this year, because so many teams are preparing to move
27:46to more 12 and 13 personnel, what was the average 11 personnel is going to be top of the league for Detroit and for Dallas this year.
27:55And so, yeah, it's just these are two mirror image teams, offenses.
27:59They could have the exact same record. I mean, this is like, so there's a lot of arbitrage opportunity for wherever you see things priced up in Dallas.
28:07Take the discount in Detroit. Give me another one.
28:10So, uh, another one you and I talked about and, and kind of same thing, mirror images.
28:16I think these two guys are in similar situations, right?
28:19But I am going to pass on Travion Henderson in drafts and just give me Jalen Warren a few rounds later, like three, four rounds later.
28:27They both have guys in front of them and Ramon J.
28:30Stevenson, Rico Dowdle. Those guys are early down guys.
28:33They're going to get a lot of the early down work.
28:37What you hope for Henderson, what you hope for Warren is that they're going to get the passing down work.
28:43And we saw some of it last year with Henderson.
28:46When Ramon Jury went down, he had some big blow up games.
28:50He was very good. We thought, okay, he's finally arrived.
28:53You know, everybody was excited about him, but what happened in the playoffs?
28:57They didn't trust him. He barely saw the field.
29:00Ramon Jury dominated the work and I get he was a rookie, but I also don't like my fifth round fantasy running
29:07backs seeing three carries in an AFC championship game.
29:10That's not going to get you fantasy points. Now, obviously things will be different this year, but I don't like how they
29:17used them last year toward the end when it mattered most.
29:20Jalen Warren, you're getting a guy who was a mid-level RB2 last year.
29:24He put up some very solid numbers. And now with Kenny Gainwell in Tampa, he's going to be the one to get
29:31all those checkdowns from Aaron Rodgers this year. So I think he's the fantastic target as like a, you know, later RB2,
29:38a flex play, particularly in full PPR formats because Aaron Rodgers doesn't throw the ball down the field anymore.
29:44Matt, do you know where he, he was in, in air yards per attempt last year, Aaron Rodgers?
29:50Tell me. 37th. There's only 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL.
29:53He was 37th. Who is out here? Can you tell me who these mystery bidders are?
29:58You know, with these, these auctions, you have someone on the phone bidding and they keep the paddle keeps going up from
30:05some official that's on the phone with, with person that couldn't attend the actual auction.
30:10You never know who these people are. Who are these people drafting DK Metcalf?
30:14What do you think is going to happen? Like we laid it out.
30:18Here's what's going to happen in Detroit. Here's what's going to happen in Dallas.
30:23This is, this is why these two teams are very similar.
30:26What do you think is going to happen, man?
30:29Do you think that Aaron Rodgers is going to be bombing it downfield to DK Metcalf?
30:34I think he's even going to take the risk of throwing a jump ball to DK Metcalf, knowing DK Metcalf is just going to fall down.
30:42You're going to try to go back shoulder. Yeah, that's going to be a couple of nice back shoulders.
30:48That's something that DK Metcalf is good at and that Aaron Rodgers was historically good at.
30:53But the average target depth just keeps going down, down, down.
30:57And that's good for Fryermuth. That's good for Jalen Warren.
31:00And that's good for the guy that's going to be running the intermediate routes, Michael Pittman.
31:05So we, at Player Profiler, check it out, you know, in our rankings, you could see, we have Michael Pittman ahead of DK Metcalf.
31:12And I keep seeing DK Metcalf ahead everywhere else.
31:15And I'm like, um, I don't think, why? What's, what is, is it not like an age difference?
31:21It's not like one guy's dust and one guy, no, they're the same age.
31:25Michael Pittman takes much better care of his body than DK Metcalf does.
31:29And you could easily see there being a more like a strong connection with Rogers and Pittman than Rogers has ever had with DK Metcalf.
31:37Who cares about DK Metcalf? This is like an alluring lure that is never really going to deliver.
31:43And that sort of feels like what we've got with Trevion Henderson.
31:47Trevion Henderson feels like an alluring lure. But at that ADP, I want to have a guy that has a more secure, less volatile opportunity share projection.
31:55You don't really get that with Henderson. It's very much an upside play.
31:59It's like, Hey, I'm trying to win my league with him.
32:03I get it. It's like a league. Warren's not going to win a league, but Warren has a 60 catch season on
32:10his resume and they lost Kenny Gainwell. Those are vacated running back targets.
32:14Rico Dowdle's not the receiver that Kenny Gainwell is.
32:17So yes, Rico Dowdle is going to get some carries.
32:20So Warren's going to lose carry share and gain target share.
32:23And the last time I checked, the targets are more valuable.
32:27Absolutely. So yeah, if there is a, there's two, those two running backs are both running backs you want.
32:33Dowdle goes pretty late because of the running back ambiguity there.
32:36Warren's already going late because it's Jalen Warren and it's the Steelers and it's just not exciting.
32:41But if you are going to invest in the Steelers, then I think you invest in the, the back field ambiguity.
32:48And if you have to go with a receiver, it's got to be Pittman.
32:52It's got to be a receiver that aligns with what Aaron Rodgers does today.
32:57Not what Aaron Rodgers was doing 10 years ago, but what Aaron Rodgers is doing today.
33:02So there's some arbitrage right there. Just Pittman over DK Metcalf.
33:05So give us another. Oh, I think I looked at the show notes.
33:09Just, I just glanced real quick. I hope that this is what I think it's going to be in terms of this
33:16next arbitrage opportunity that you're going to give us.
33:19Okay. So if you're, I think you may be right.
33:22So you asked me for a receiver one. I'm bypassing Garrett Wilson.
33:26I'm not touching Garrett Wilson at his, was it wide receiver 14 cost?
33:30I think something like that. Give me Jalen Waddell.
33:33Give me Jalen Waddell around a two later. And okay.
33:36So I was wrong. I was wrong. I thought I glanced at it.
33:40I didn't really read it. I saw the, I saw Wilson and I thought maybe this was going to, you were going
33:47to, this was going to be a bullish Michael Wilson take because no one's done it yet.
33:52No one's willing to go there. I was thinking this Wilson might be Michael Wilson that you were going to be bullet,
33:59but then now that I'm reading it, it's actually, no, you're saying fade Wilson, Garrett Wilson and go with Waddell.
34:06I agree with this. I don't agree with fading Garrett Wilson necessarily.
34:09I think Garrett Wilson is fairly priced because I'm so bullish on the Jets offense, especially their passing game.
34:15So I'm, I want all of it, right? I want to get Wilson and maybe I can stack him with Gino.
34:22Maybe I can't in best ball. Who cares? Like him anyway.
34:26Also love Adonai Mitchell. Happy to draft Omar Cooper.
34:28Happy to draft Sadiq. I'm happy to even dynasty startups, tight end premium.
34:32Give me some Mason Taylor. Like I'm in, I'm very much in very, very in, but I understand why Waddell is undervalued.
34:39I think it's more that, Hey, if you don't get Wilson and another round ticks by Waddell is available.
34:45I really like Waddell because he has one of the more absurd back-to-back season statistical stat lines, back-to-back stat lines, season stat
34:52lines I've ever seen where he was basically Debo Samuel for one year.
34:56And then he was Tyreek Hill the next year.
34:59He's versatile. He's versatile. And he's going now from Miami, right?
35:03Where he was second fiddle to Tyreek in a very slow paced offense to going to Denver.
35:08Oh, by the way, do you think that Mike McDaniel's the reason why it was slow paced?
35:13Or do you think it was Quinn Ewers? I think it's more of a McDaniel thing, but I mean, Quinn Ewers, Quinn Ewers didn't help.
35:21You think that the hipster Mike McDaniel wants to run a slow paced offense?
35:26He traditionally hasn't been very fast paced. People kind of confuse the explosive plays with fast pace, but he manages it pretty well.
35:33Um, so, you know, Waddell going from kind of that, that slower pace and he was going to play with Willis this year.
35:40He's now going to Denver who they're going to pass the ball.
35:44Okay. Uh, Bo Nix led the league in past attempts last year.
35:48I think as a team, they were fourth and obviously he's going to be the focal point of that offense.
35:54Now, you know, it's not going to be the trio of running backs.
35:58Like you talked about earlier. It's not going to be Cortland Sutton anymore, who was kind of miscast as a, as a true alpha receiver.
36:06You know, Sean Payton's got his guy. Now he's been a fake alpha.
36:10It's a little career. Just like DK Metcalf, DK Metcalf, Cortland Sutton.
36:14Those are the prototypical fake alphas. Yes. They have their place on an NFL team, but for fantasy, those guys aren't true dogs.
36:21You know what I mean? And they, and they really haven't ever been there.
36:25They're good, but they're not super elite. So, you know, now Sean Payton's got his guy.
36:30He's been searching for this, this dangerous slot Z weapon for some time now.
36:35And he traded multiple draft picks to get Jalen Waddle and he's going to move them all over the place.
36:41He's going to use them early and often. And we're going to see, I think some, some fantastic numbers for him.
36:48He's super efficient on a per touch basis. He was sixth in first downs per route one last year, 10th in yards per route run.
36:56Now you're going to get him in a more volumous pass offense.
36:59So I think, I think Waddle's going to smash this year.
37:03I think he's going to be a great play.
37:06I'll take him all day long over somebody straight up over all day long over somebody like Garrett Wilson, who I don't mind them.
37:13But my problem with Garrett Wilson has been, he just has been historically very ineffective and efficient with a absurd target volume over the years.
37:21In his first three years in the league, only Justin Jefferson had more targets than he did.
37:26And he was continuously giving us wide receiver three, wide receiver two numbers.
37:30So now you've got first round pick Kenny and Sadiq, first round pick Omar Cooper.
37:35You talked about Adonai Mitchell, who they traded for last year.
37:39He's got a lot more competition now. I don't see it getting better for Garrett Wilson.
37:44And I just don't think he can keep up that crazy target volume that he had his first few years in the league.
37:51Yeah. Adonai Mitchell is a real problem because Adonai Mitchell can win on the outside.
37:56He can get deep. He can get separation. And they've never had that.
38:00So that's a level of target competition that's going to be new for Garrett Wilson.
38:04The target share, though, is one of the more sticky metrics year to year.
38:09If you're commanding targets, you're probably good at football.
38:12And it was interesting with Waddle. He had over 100 catches as a rookie, which is hard to do on like 140 targets.
38:19So he also is a target monster. He did it as a rookie.
38:23And then Tyreek Hill comes in and he's like, okay, I'll be different.
38:27I'll be a different guy. Like you want to run players underneath?
38:31I'll go deep. So one year he has like a 9.8 yards per reception.
38:35The next year it's 18.1. That is insane. Insane.
38:38The targets go down. The air yards double. What?
38:41Like how? It's just like, like he is such a, he's such an enigma in a good way.
38:47In a way that he is absolutely one of, I would say, top five most versatile wide receivers in the league.
38:53Because yes, he is like you built a Z receiver in a lab.
38:57Absolutely. But he could play X. He can play slot.
39:00He can do, he can play special teams. You could give him carries out of the bat.
39:06He is absolutely, I would challenge anyone to find more than five other receivers in the league that are more versatile than Jalen Waddle.
39:13So I absolutely love that one. You have another one.
39:16You have another one that I'm interested, I'm very, very interested to hear.
39:21And we're going to talk about it after this.
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39:55there available to you with cheat sheets for every format and interactive drafting.
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41:10Visit homedepot.com. How doers get more done. Oh yes.
41:13Oh yes. Give us one more. Let's talk tight ends.
41:16All right? And I kind of wanted to stick with the Jets theme that you and I were kind of going with here.
41:24I'm going to skip Kenyon Sadiq as a rookie this year.
41:27He's, I like his profile. I think he's going to be a good pro, but he's young and it's a crowded Jets offense like I just talked about.
41:36Give me Chig Okonkwo late in drafts as like a high upside swing for a tight end too, or you know, a
41:43backup if I need it as a potential flex play.
41:46If you're playing in some tight end premium leagues.
41:49I really like Chig this year. I think he landed in a good spot with Jaden Daniels.
41:54He's a dependable guy. He's, he's never really popped.
41:57But one thing I think that Washington likes is the fact that he's never missed a game in his four year career.
42:04He's always out there and they've dealt with some injuries.
42:07Last year was brutal for them. Right? So I think having a dependable guy like Okonkwo who can go over the middle, he's fast.
42:15As you can see, he ran a four or five to 40.
42:18He's got some speed to him. He can do a lot of the things that Zach Ertz was doing for Jaden Daniels, who was getting peppered with targets.
42:27Right? He, Jaden Daniels brought Zach Ertz back from the dead two years ago and it made him fantasy relevant again.
42:34He was putting up some, some tight end one numbers.
42:37And I think a younger, quicker guy like Chig Okonkwo, if Washington doesn't add a slot guy like Debo or a Stefan
42:44Diggs here soon, I think Okonkwo is set up to kind of play very well this season.
42:49I think he's a sneaky play. And if he doesn't have some crazy target competition for a lot of the short intermediate
42:56stuff, he's a back end tight end one for me.
42:59Yeah. I mean, the guy has proven that he can translate athleticism into on-field production.
43:04The guy almost ran a sub four or five 40, 96 percentile speed burst.
43:08And they went out and they sent him to a new contract, but they went out and they wanted this guy.
43:15Right. And he's had two 500 receiving yard seasons, but never had the touchdowns.
43:19I love, I love guys coming from bad teams with bad quarterback play and getting an upgrade, better team, better quarterback, especially
43:26if they weren't ever able to score touchdowns. Do you know how many career Okonkwo touchdowns?
43:31Do you know how many? He's got like what, eight or something like that.
43:36I believe it is. It is eight. Nice. The answer is eight.
43:39Yeah. It's not up on the screen. I had, I had it up on the screen earlier.
43:45I took it down, but I didn't show the touchdowns.
43:48Eight career touchdowns. He could get eight career. He could get eight touchdowns this year.
43:53So his career touchdown total could double in one year.
43:56Very easily. Very easily. Every year, last three years, he's getting 70 plus targets and he's been efficient with those targets.
44:02Yeah, there's only been a handful of guys who have had consecutive, you know, 500 yard seasons like he has.
44:09And he's done it, or I'm sorry, 400 yard seasons.
44:12He's done it his entire career, but he's never had that truly elite season yet.
44:17And it's like, kind of like you talked about, you know, he, he played with Will Levis, what's the Mason Rudolph rookie
44:24year, Cam Ward, you know, guys not great. Maybe Cam Ward is going to be great someday, but obviously rookie year, he was rough.
44:31And so Chig is coming off a career year in targets, receptions, receiving yards.
44:35Like you talked about though, only the two touchdowns, but the guy's an elite separator.
44:40I think player profiler, we have him as like the seventh or eighth best at the position when it comes to separation.
44:47We talked about the speed. Well, yards after the catch.
44:50Yes. Yes. I mean, that yards after the catch is less sticky than air yards, but that's how Tucker craft makes all
44:57his hay with yards after the catch. Well, you put Chigakonkwu on the Washington offense where the only other player that's commanding
45:04a significant target share is Tara McLaurin. And it's wide open after that.
45:08You know, all the targets have been consolidated in green Bay.
45:12You got to like Tucker craft. Well, it's a wide open depth chart, wide open target distribution in Washington.
45:18Are you kidding me? It's a better situation. Wouldn't surprise me at all.
45:22Chigakonkwu just outproduces Tucker craft this year. These guys are equally good after the catch.
45:26It's just that the scenario that is unfolding in Washington is set, is setting up a Konkwu who's not coming off an
45:33ACL tear much better than it's setting up for Tucker craft.
45:37So if you wanted to pick like, if you want to go even further, right, forget Sadiq fade Tucker craft and the
45:44arbitrage play on craft is a conquer. It's spicy.
45:47I like it though. The difference is we've seen it with craft.
45:50You know, last year he was, I think tight in one before he went down, he was just crushing it out there.
45:57People saw those, those downfield plays, those highlight plays.
46:00We just haven't seen it with a Konkwu yet.
46:03But like you talked about, we have them down here at player profiler as ninth in yards after the catch at the tight end position.
46:11He's got the skillset. He just really hasn't had the opportunity in the quarterback play yet.
46:16So I think he is set up for a career year this year.
46:20Like we talked about, if you miss out on those elite tight ends early, go ahead and get you some Chigakonkwu.
46:27He's a guy who could, who could pay some big dividends for you late in drafts.
46:32All right, I have a tea time and Wolf was like, Hey man, I don't know what kind of endurance I have.
46:38You know, this is my second show I've ever been on.
46:42Certainly the first I've been on with you, with the Mind of Managing program.
46:46I was like, that's okay, man. We're just going to, we're going to do a nice tight hour, maybe hour 15.
46:53We're going to have a nice tight show for the people.
46:56We're going to rat-a-tat-tat this thing. So I just want to, half of the show is going to be just rapid fire.
47:03It's going to go right into rapid fire. So we have, we gave you some nice ADP arbitrage opportunities.
47:09I want to test some takes on you. So some takes I've had recent takes and recent shows.
47:15And you tell me if it's crazy or if you love it, love it or hate it.
47:20Let's do it. Someone had a love or hate column at one point.
47:24Someone that was known for love, hate. I can't remember exactly who it was.
47:29Somebody in fantasy had a brand that was all about love, hate.
47:33I'll remember it at some point. Puka Nakua needs to be ahead of Jamar Chase.
47:37Enough already. I disagree. I'm going to disagree with you here.
47:41And here's why I'm going to take Chase. Chase is my wide receiver one this year, but it's kind of splitting hairs.
47:48We know what both guys can do, but I'm going to take Chase strictly because of the environment.
47:53I think Burrow can elevate his game a little bit more.
47:57We saw the best of Matthew Stafford last year, and he's going to regress a little bit.
48:02I've talked about this in numerous articles. Stafford had more touchdowns last year than he had in 23 and 24 combined.
48:09That's not going to stick. McVay likes to do some funny things.
48:13He likes to get creative every year. Last year, it was the whole, I'm going to make Devontae Adams a goal line
48:19receiver, and I'm going to have him have this absurd record inside the five-yard line.
48:24Puka Nakua's touchdown rate was not crazy. It wasn't.
48:27He had a 7.9% touchdown rate. You're right, but here's what I don't like with Puka.
48:32He comes off the field much more than Jamar Chase does.
48:35Jamar Chase was first in targets. He was first in route runs last year at the wide receiver position.
48:41Puka ran 170 less routes than Jamar Chase last season, and he had a 69.7% snap share.
48:47I think that was 40th among receivers. He's not the one on the field in those 13 personnel sets.
48:53That's Devontae Adams. So Puka's getting off the field more.
48:56Chase never leaves the field. He's got 200 target upside.
48:59He had 185 last year. He's got 200 target upside.
49:02So give me the guy who's going to be on the field more, who's going to run more routes, who's going to see more targets.
49:10I'm going to take Chase slightly over Puka, but again, it's splitting hairs.
49:14They're both top three guys. I actually think Higgins is a better value.
49:18I like Higgins in best ball. Higgins is going in the third round, and if you like the environment, then you've got
49:25to love Higgins because he didn't play a full season last year.
49:29He also had 11 touchdowns, 1,300-plus air yards in only 15 games.
49:33For all the reasons people like Jamar Chase and are drafting him over Puka, over Jackson Smith and Jigba, well, I mean, Puka Nakua.
49:40Puka, his wide receiver brother, his partner in two receiver sets, but in the duo of Adams and Puka versus Chase and Higgins.
49:48I see some regression also with Devontae Adams possible.
49:50I could see Devontae Adams with an injury. I am not exactly sure how this is going to go with Devontae Adams,
49:57at what point he is going to reach a cliff here.
50:01It's probably not this year. I hope it's not this year.
50:04I've certainly drafted him in Dynasty in that round 10 zone when he just falls and falls and falls, or I can
50:11get a Devontae Adams, get a Chris Godwin, happy to draft him there.
50:15But it's because the reason he's so far down in Dynasty is because there is this risk.
50:21So there's also this risk. So yes, sure, if you just look at the snap share and the route participation rate last
50:27year and the total routes run, edge for Chase across the board, but there's actually some contingent upside with what happens if
50:34we don't have Devontae Adams available in the red zone.
50:38What is Puka then? They're not going to go to Mumfield.
50:41So that's the hidden upside of Puka that no one talks about is if something happens to Tee Higgins, then okay, they're
50:48going to bring in Iyosevich and maybe Colby Young and certainly Chase will be, his usage will go up.
50:54But if something happens to Devontae Adams, Puka is going to be off this planet.
50:59So that's just another, it's an element of consideration that I own somebody, some casual person said, I don't trust Devontae Adams to stay healthy this year.
51:07Feels like he's about to tear a hamstring at any moment.
51:11And I'm like, okay. I was like, what? Okay.
51:13You're just a casual football fan and that's how you feel.
51:17It's true. He is 33 and he has had lower body injuries.
51:21And yeah. Yeah. Well, what does that mean for Puka?
51:24If that happens? And my mind was like, oh my God, I was blown.
51:28So this is not rapid fire at all. And we're failing at rapid fire.
51:33We really do. We, you know, we, we need to, we need to get a lot.
51:38We need to really step this up. So let's, let's do that.
51:41Let's test your day. I'm not going to, it's my fault.
51:45I'm way too long winded with these things. Okay.
51:48George Pickens. He should be a top 20 player, but I don't know why he's going where he's going.
51:54I'm, I don't understand George Pickens and why he's not getting drafted a little bit earlier.
51:59I mean, come on, man. I mean, his, his ADP is way too late.
52:03I agree. George Pickens was awesome last year. Everybody was waiting for him to get in that past happy environment.
52:09He got it with Dak and he made everybody look good, right?
52:13He delivered on the promise of him, you know, looking good in that type of environment.
52:18He was wide receiver five last year and points per game.
52:22He was third and routes. He had a 23% target share.
52:25What's not to love about George Pickens other than the fact that he can get into his own head sometimes.
52:31And if he can reel that in, if he could focus on some football and what could be a generational payday after this season, right?
52:39If he delivers again, what do you have 1400 plus yards last season?
52:43He's going to make some crazy money. So I agree.
52:47I think he's motivated. Dallas is going to chuck it all over the yard and Dak looked for him in the red zone too.
52:54He had 23 red zone targets last year. That was third among receivers.
52:58So he's going to have some scoring opportunities. I'm with you all right there.
53:03Give me George Pickens in the second round. I think he's a great buy there.
53:07Yeah. I mean, this it's crazy. It really is.
53:10It's really, it's really crazy. Uh, I have him in the top 20 in best ball, especially.
53:15I think he's incredible. I think I'd, I'd rather have George Pickens in best ball than Ashton Gentry.
53:21I would now, because I love robust RB in best ball.
53:25If I've decided I'm going to go robust RB, they're probably going to go Gentry.
53:29But if I, if based on how the first round plays out, if I decide, you know what, I'm not, I'm not,
53:36I'm not, Gentry's going to be off the board anyway, but any build that's not robust RB, I would rather have George Pickens and Ashton Gentry.
53:44I think George Pickens just outscores him period. It's just, and he gives you the spike weeks that Gentry's not going to be able to offer.
53:53Certainly Gentry's going to have some spike weeks, but that's what George Pickens does.
53:57He's a spike week specialist. He's a monster producer going for a contract.
54:01I want him right. Right. And you can get him in the late second round in all of fantasy, every type of fantasy draft.
54:09You could always get him in a late second round, whether it be dynasty seasonal league, best ball target, George Pickens in the late second round.
54:17I don't care. Why not? What do you, I mean, yeah, I don't get it.
54:22I don't, I don't get the trade off the other guys available in that zone.
54:26I'm not interested like I am with George Pickens.
54:29Agreed. Now we mentioned the jets. The one area of the jets that I'm not that interested in is the running game.
54:36And we've been moving Brees Hall down, down, down as we continue to update our projections and what we expect from this
54:43team and how much this team loves guys like Isaiah Davis.
54:46It's getting real hard. It's getting real hard to draft Brees Hall where he's going.
54:51I see it. And I agree with you to some extent.
54:55I like Brees Hall, the player, but it's, it's the jets environment that sucks.
54:59And specifically what we've seen with his reception totals decreasing the last couple of years.
55:04So he had the high end RB one season, 2023.
55:07He was electric. He's explosive. He had 76 receptions that year.
55:10They dipped the 57 the year after Aaron Glenn gets there just 36 last year, right?
55:15You can't be a high end RB one only getting two receptions a game.
55:20It's not going to work specifically. If Glenn wants to play around with Braylon Allen, with Isaiah Davis, give me a break.
55:27Those guys are nowhere near the talent level that Brees Hall is.
55:30I wish they would stop messing around with these other guys and give Hall the ball, especially since you just paid them,
55:37you know, that, that big multi-year contract. So no, they're not going to, but they're going to, they're not going to stop feeding Isaiah Davis.
55:45They love Isaiah Davis. Isaiah Davis is awesome between the tackles.
55:49He is a menace and I could see them deploying him more than anyone wants.
55:53And then they're also obligated to mix in some Braylon Allen.
55:57Braylon Allen's also like a Brandon Jacobs, like white player.
56:00And if he's not going to catch passes without any target competition with a Tyrod Taylor back there, who's has the lowest arm strength in the league.
56:08How is he with Geno Smith is, is not interested in checking it down.
56:13Do you know that he, Geno Smith, Jameis Winston, these guys are here for one reason and one reason only they're bombing it down the field.
56:21That's what they want to do. They don't care.
56:24That's their, their, it's their career is almost over there.
56:27They're, you know, I know Jameis Winston's going to be a, he's going to be in the booth, right?
56:33He's going to be in a, some kind of pregame show.
56:36He's teeing himself up for that just with all the soccer coverage and all.
56:41He's just, he's, he is hamming it up. Like I've never, I mean, you've got, he is, he is the backup quarterback for the New York football giants.
56:50That's a big job. It's a big, important job.
56:53And he's like, yeah, I'm already auditioning for the pregame shows.
56:56Good for you, man. Great. I, by the way, love Jameis Winston as a stash and super flex this year.
57:02Yes. Yes. I love it. Jackson's Jackson Dart, putting his body at risk every game.
57:07He just makes irresponsible decisions with the football as a thrower and with his, with his feet as a runner.
57:13And that is eventually going to cost him. It's going to cost him games.
57:18That's my prediction. Jackson Dart will miss games this year.
57:21Winston's going to come in by the time Winston comes in, let's say it's week eight.
57:26You're going to, you're going to have neighbors out there playing at a high level, not quite all the way back, but at a high level.
57:34And, and Winston will win people games and super flex this year.
57:38That is a thing that is going to happen.
57:41Brees Hall. It's, you have to keep squinting and squinting more and more and more.
57:45They're not going to be leading. They're going to lose a bunch of games this year.
57:50There's not like they're going to be salting games away in the fourth quarter.
57:55You don't have a check down quarterback. Where are the points going to come from?
58:00I'm searching. I'm scouring the football field. Where are these fantasy points going to come from with Brees Hall?
58:05I traded Brees Hall and dynasty because of this.
58:08Now I gave up too much, gave up Purdy and Brees Hall for Burrow.
58:13I mean, it was a lot to give up too much.
58:16Coach said it was too much, but I did it.
58:19And I, one of the big reason I did is because like, I didn't want to be holding on.
58:25I was, I had a bunch of Brees Hall, dynasty to locks, check it out.
58:30We have a, a league sink that gives you your, your roster percentages.
58:34And I was like, I'm already overexposed to Brees Hall.
58:37And some guy with Burrow wants Brees Hall. I'm going to make a trade happen.
58:42I'm going to make this out. I'm going to get, I'm going to get Burrow.
58:47I want Burrow and dynasty, man. Who doesn't want that?
58:50Right. So I, that's what happened to me. And then I was like, why am I so scared?
58:56It was like, almost instinctual. I was like, why am I so scared of Brees Hall?
59:01And then I started to realize, I was like, you know what?
59:04Like in real life, in an actual game situation, close your eyes in where, where is all this production coming from?
59:11Well, that's the thing is I, I don't know about you, but I don't want to watch the jets on Sunday either.
59:18So it, it's the stench of the jets for years now, and they're just not going to put their guys in advantageous situations.
59:25So, you know, we discussed it. It's going to be an interesting offense this year.
59:30I think with Gino, they've got some weapons now, but they're not going to be a top five offense.
59:36Gino will give them some stability and he's a gunslinger, but that, that team is not going to be putting up points,
59:43you know, like the upper echelon guys every single week.
59:46It's just not going to happen. So unless Brees Hall is going to be catching passes like he did two years ago, I don't see it either.
59:54He's going to be maybe a mid to low end RB two.
59:58That's about where he's being drafted. He's been, I think he's being drafted a little bit higher than that, but I I'm with you.
60:06I don't, I don't see the upside in this offense.
60:09If they're going to continue sprinkling in Braylon Allen, Isaiah Davis and messing around with that trio.
60:14We have Kim Scadaboo 12 spots ahead. It's aggressive.
60:17That's aggressive. I'd rather have Kim Scadaboo easily, easily give me Scadaboo.
60:21Another guy that we're ahead on. We're also that much, that far ahead on Carnell Tate.
60:26Do you agree more with having Tate that far ahead or Scadaboo that far ahead?
60:31I'll take Tate and here's why the draft capital.
60:33I love him. He was, he was awesome at Ohio state and people didn't really realize that because of Jeremiah Smith.
60:40But I remember a couple months ago, I did a nice deep dive on Carnell Tate for one of our landmines and gems articles.
60:48And I really loved what I saw from him watching the tape.
60:51He's going to stretch defenses. He's going to high point the ball.
60:55He's going to gel with Cam Ward and that lively arm that he has, right?
61:00He loves to throw the ball down the field.
61:03He's, he's basically the new Jameis Winston. Okay. You close your eyes with, with Cam Ward and what it, so that I'm
61:10closing my eyes and I'm struggling to see the Brees Hall fantasy points.
61:14When I close my eyes and think about the Tennessee offense, all I see is Ward to Tate.
61:19Yes. Yes. I agree. I agree. That's, that's Cam Ward's game.
61:23He wants to extend plays. He wants to get the ball down the field.
61:27He doesn't play in structure very well. He holds on the ball too long.
61:32Those are things he's going to work on, but Tate's going to be awesome for him when he gets out of the
61:38pocket, when he goes downfield, these jump ball 50, 50 situations, those are going to be like 70, 30 with Carnell Tate.
61:45So I really like him. Cam Scadaboo. Here's the thing with Cam.
61:49You talked about reckless with Jackson Dart. That's, that's his running back mate is equally, if not more reckless.
61:55Scadaboo looks like a big horn sheep out there, just continuously putting his body in harm's way.
62:00That's awesome to watch as a fan. It's maddening if you have him in the fantasy, because there's, he's going to get
62:07hurt again with the way he plays. I will say you are right in the fact that he escaped the draft.
62:14Giants didn't add anybody, right? They didn't sign anybody in free agency.
62:18They didn't draft anybody. The backfield is his, mostly they're going to sprinkle in Tyron Tracy, but I'm just worried about Scadaboo from an injury perspective.
62:26And that's mainly what it is. Don't be he's healthy.
62:29He's good to go. Do you want to be worried about a guy, worry about a guy that's actually coming back from
62:36a, an ACL tear guy that maybe had a revision surgery on that ACL tear guy like Malik neighbors.
62:42There's only so many guys that are injured that we can totally fade and neighbors is one.
62:47I'm just, I just don't like drafting injured players, but there was not like a major ligament tear that was catastrophic with Cam Scadaboo.
62:55It looked really bad, but it, the injury recovery timeline was not as elongated.
62:59He was able to get back and start working out, start strengthening the lower body, a much earlier in the process than
63:06a guy like Malik neighbors, especially a guy like, you know, Chris bell, Chris bell's already on the pop.
63:12And that's the nice thing about drafting Chris bell and rookie drafts.
63:16Congrats on everyone that drafted Chris bell and we have an extra roster spot, but I'm on the pop these extra roster spots.
63:23Great. Happy to do it. And dynasty love that.
63:26So these articles that you're referencing, they're available for free.
63:29These are not behind a paywall player profile.com slash articles.
63:32You can see all of Wolf's work there. It's incredible.
63:35And our premium subscribers make it possible, but also our sponsors.
63:39So check out NFFC, go to NFFC in our show notes, right?
63:43Whether it's wherever you get this show, whether it's iTunes, whether it's YouTube, wherever it is, go into the show notes and
63:50click the link to check out the NFFC. We have a link to the NFFC.
63:54We also have several different promo codes. We have a promo code for first time signups.
63:59We also, once you've signed up and you've already started playing and depositing and you want to sign up for, let's say
64:06their circa championship or their primetime championship. Well, we have codes where whenever you go and enter these tournaments, you can get money off.
64:14You can get a discount, a rolling entry discount all summer using our codes at the NFFC.
64:19I've never seen anything like it. I've never seen an operator put that kind of offer out there for just ongoing discounts on entries for our community.
64:28So everybody check out the show notes and then there's a separate code for each of their featured contests.
64:34And so, and just go to the FFPC, go to the NFFC, check it out.
64:38I think you'll, I think you'll love it. And it's just a different format than we're used to, right?
64:44It's third round reversal. It's high stakes with three receivers.
64:48So it, it, it's its own unique format. It's Kentucky Derby style where you can bid on your preferred draft spot.
64:54So there's a lot of cool features that, that make it different and make it worth checking out.
65:00So go to the NFFC, sign up and use those codes in the show description and get rocket, make a bunch of money this year.
65:08And you can make a bunch of money by drafting Trey Harris, because I, I've been getting notes on Twitter, on Reddit about Quentin Johnston.
65:16Hey, you know, Justin Herbert called Quentin Johnston elite.
65:18So he must be elite, except he hasn't produced.
65:21And man, look at that Quentin Johnston ADP just keeps climbing and climbing and climbing to like 75.
65:27I saw it. Someone, someone said, he's 75, an underdog.
65:30I'm like, what? Like I saw him go in the sixties and like, you saw him go in the sixties for Christ.
65:37What are we talking about? This guy's not good.
65:40This has been decided that Quentin Johnston's not good.
65:43And then you have a guy that is good in Trey Harris, who's no longer a rookie.
65:48If you want to fade a rookie, cause he's a rookie fine, go ahead, fade him, but you can't fade Trey Harris.
65:55Come on, man. What are we doing? Trey Harris is a second year player and he is going to challenge Quentin Johnston
66:02for the role in two receiver sets. He could even challenge Lad McConkie.
66:06I could see a scenario where it's actually Johnston and Trey Harris in two receiver sets.
66:11It sounds wild, but this, this is one of those things where the most versatile, the guy that can run the most
66:18diverse route tree can be trusted in the most areas of the field, blocking all these things, all these roles, all these
66:25responsibilities, the guy that's actually most trustworthy across the board.
66:28Hey, squeeze the football in traffic. Hey, run blocking all these things.
66:32It's actually Trey Harris. So Trey Harris is one of those, those cheat codes where he goes so late in all formats.
66:39Let's go back to that startup. This is a young player.
66:42This is a young player that was super buzzworthy last year.
66:45A lot of people love Trey Harris and dynasty.
66:48Then he didn't produce big numbers. And suddenly he's an afterthought.
66:52He's forgotten. I was able to get him in this startup that I referenced earlier at the 1409 after I took JK Dobbins, he was still there.
67:00So I think that that to me, that's one of the best, that's one of the best tactics is just to fade QJ and draft Harris.
67:08Yeah. It's a, it's not a bad, you know, idea, especially if you want shots at that chargers offense, they're going to
67:15be great this year with McDaniel calling the plays Trey Harris.
67:19He had the draft capital second round last year, decent athletic profiler.
67:23Um, he was pretty good at old miss going down the field at contested catches, but the chargers didn't really use them that way last year.
67:31He only had a 9.3 a dot. So it was kind of a lot of underneath, uh, you know, manufactured stuff, couple
67:38screens at the line of scrimmage, that kind of thing.
67:41But as you mentioned, he's very good. And at getting the ball and, and getting upfield, turning up field, getting some yak yards, right?
67:48That's he's, he excels at that. So it's going to be interesting to see how the chargers use him.
67:54I could see a scenario where they do put him and QJ, like you talked about in two receiver sets, because lad's
68:01a smaller guy, he's shifty, he's good, but he can't do all the things that the bigger guys like Harrison QJ can do.
68:09So it'll be interesting to see how they use him.
68:12Are they going to put him at X and just let him be a sacrificial X, or are they actually going to
68:19use him at Z, move them around, give them some easy button touches, things like that.
68:24It's going to be one of the more fun things to watch this year, that chargers offense and how they utilize all these guys.
68:31Well, they're going to play him at Z. That's what they're going to do.
68:36They're going to play him at some X and some Z.
68:39That's what I think is going to happen. They're going to just slot in McConkie at Y and he's going to get
68:46those, those, all those short intermediate targets. McConkie is going to soak them all up.
68:51It's going to be great. Right. And then I think Trey Harris will play off him and they're going to have QJ
68:58out wide, just occupying opposing alpha corners and let Harris and McConkie go to work on the right side.
69:04I think that's, what's going to happen. And then I think there will be some flipping where Harris will go out wide and then QJ comes inside.
69:12I think that'll happen a bunch. The bottom line is he's super versatile.
69:16He can, they can deploy him all over the place.
69:19And if we look up and he's the one receiver out there in 13 personnel, it's like, yeah, this makes sense.
69:26Like he's the most trustworthy. He's maybe, maybe his blocking skills are better.
69:30Right. And if you, if you go to the news desk on player profile, or you can see a player profile slash news player, profile.com slash news.
69:39You can see there's regularly, we are posting news about players like Trey Harris.
69:43And it just, it's just been a drumbeat that the people following the chargers are like, Trey Harris is going to be involved.
69:50People get ready for it. You're going to see some Trey Harris like it or not.
69:55You're going to see some Trey Harris. They're preparing us for it.
69:59They've already told us this is going to happen.
70:02And we either listen to them or we don't agreed.
70:05And they didn't spend second round draft capital on them for nothing.
70:09So, you know, QJ has been inconsistent. Gadsden, he's, he's not a true inline tight end.
70:14You know, he's a slot guy. They brought in in Joku.
70:17So they have a lot of guys that can do multiple things.
70:21They have a ton of weapons in that passing game, which is why I think Herbert is going to go to the moon this year.
70:29But yeah, I agree. I mean, I liked Trey Harris coming out.
70:33I touched on him, I think in the very first article I did for player profiler, uh, when he was coming out
70:40and, um, and yeah, I mean, he, he's the cheapest guy you can get on this offense if you miss out on the big name.
70:47So if you want some exposure to the chargers offense, like you got them in the 14th round, that's awesome.
70:54Yeah. 14th round in a startup dynasty dynasty. It's unbelievable.
70:57I can't even believe I, I, yeah, Quinton Johnson's undraftable.
71:00It's only you have to draft Harris over Quinton Johnson.
71:03I'll just draft Josh Downs over Johnston. I think that's, that's an E that's an easy, like we're, we're, you know, around
71:10behind on Johnson and around ahead on, on Josh Downs.
71:13And that means you're going to get a lot of Josh Downs.
71:17Great. Right. So, all right, man, get us out of here.
71:20Amazing first show on the mind of mansion debut for Wolf Trellis herd.
71:25Great work. Give us a bold prediction. Bold prediction.
71:27Um, I've got two, I got two David Montgomery is going to be a top 10 running back this year.
71:34Okay. Okay. Okay. I like it. You talk about drum beats.
71:37The coaches have been hammering home that they want to run the football in Houston.
71:42They traded three picks for David Montgomery, including a fourth rounder.
71:45He's coming off a career year or a career low in touches last year.
71:50So he should be fresh. I think we're going to see Joe mix in 2024 all over again.
71:55Give me Montgomery as an RB two who could approach 300 touches.
71:59I think he's got top 10 upside this year.
72:02Second one, Malik Willis is going to be a top 10 quarterback this year.
72:06And I want people to take him at the end of drafts all day long as a backup.
72:12I was doing some research since 1999, 80% of quarterbacks who rushed for over 500 yards become top 12 quarterbacks, 80% of
72:19the time, 50% of the time they're top five.
72:22Okay. Oh, so 50% of the time it works every time.
72:2550% of the time they're top five. Malik Willis averages 44 yards rushing per game.
72:30Okay. You extrapolate that out over a 17 game pace.
72:33It's like 760 yards. He should smash 500. If he starts all season, take Malik Willis at the end of your drafts.
72:40He'll thank me later. He's got crazy upside of that offense.
72:43Malik Willis outscores Jackson Dart this year. So we'll hot take a fight.
72:48What you just said. I like it. We'll hot take a fight.
72:51We'll hot take a fight. This is how you do it.
72:55You compare two players. So it's not like he has to finish top five or top 10, but you just beat Jackson Dart.
73:02There's a lot of ways you can beat Jackson Dart and fantasy points.
73:06Yeah. You just have to stay on the field.
73:09So yeah, maybe that, maybe that's all he needs to do.
73:12So Malik Willis outscores Jackson Dart this year in fantasy football.
73:16And then we'll hot take a fight. Your take from an hour ago and Chica Conklu outscores Tucker Crab.
73:22Oh, so 50% of the time it works every time.
