Running On Empty

Analyst notes Bo Nix threw 600-plus passes last year and expects the Broncos to throw less going forward. Late-season ankle injury may reduce his scrambling tendency, potentially directing more touches to running backs. Nix's continued improvement is cited as part of the bull case for Broncos running backs, though analyst remains skeptical about actual production gains.

Completely out of the realm of possibility for fantasy relevance, especially after draft pick and recent reports. Analyst bought into the hype last season and regrets it; lesson learned about not paying up for unproven rookies.

Mentioned as a potential 2QB league target in context of Tennessee's offensive additions (Cardinal Tate, Wanda Robinson). The improved receiving weapons could help Ward's fantasy outlook.

ADP of 73 is too high; had only three top-10 weeks and zero top-five weeks, raising ceiling questions. Analyst has not been drafting Hubbard at all. His ADP is converging with backup Jonathan Brooks (around low 90s). Hubbard had zero 20-yard rushes in 134 attempts in 2025 and only one explosive rush (13-20 yards), showing lack of explosivity. However, he maintains a strong 48% success rate and just 12% non-positive attempt rate, making him a reliable but unspectacular floor play. Analyst is 'off him completely now as a fantasy asset' despite respecting him as a real football player.

Patriots quarterback Drake May took 13 goal-to-go carries in 2025, third on the team behind Henderson (16) and Mondre Stevenson (15), indicating he is involved in short-yardage situations.

Rookie running back being compared to Christian McCaffrey with no actual basis other than catching passes at Navy. Analyst dismisses the hype as unfounded speculation; lessons learned from overpaying for rookies last season.

Had two top-10 weeks and one top-five week last season. Good yardage after contact (NYPA) despite facing high volume of eight-man boxes. Slightly lower ceiling than Rashad White but still productive.

ADP of 100 is not attractive to analyst; Dobbins had no top-10 weeks in 2025. Analyst dislikes this backfield and prefers running backs who catch passes; Dobbins is all rushing impact with no receiving floor, making him less appealing than Harvey.

Analyst expresses strong skepticism about Dobbins-led Broncos backfield; notes Dobbins will lead in touches until injury but injury timeline is uncertain. Last year Dobbins posted RB24 in points per game with poor receiving production (11 catches in 10 games, more games with negative receiving yards than double-digit receiving yards), forcing reliance on touchdown upside. Analyst concerned about durability and questions whether five healthy games of fringe RB2 production is worth the draft capital, stating 'I hate this backfield with a burning white hot passion' and 'I don't even want to deal with it.'

Co-host cites McLaughlin as example of Broncos' split backfield problem; notes he had at least four carries in eight of their last nine games, representing touches that fragment the backfield and hurt all running backs' fantasy value across the board.

ADP 75 with three top-10 weeks and one top-five week. Underrated dual-threat with strong efficiency plus volume; got outshone by Gainwell last year but now Gainwell is gone. Pittsburgh was top-10 in rushing success rate despite bottom-five attempts, showing efficiency. Warren is a strong value at his price point.

If Warren receives even a small portion of the hyper-targeting that Jalen Rodgers showed toward Gainwell, he would be a 'smash' pick; analyst is getting sold on Pittsburgh backs due to two-back backfield structure where both backs split all pass-catching, garbage time, and end zone work.

Analyst has grown to like Coleman, especially in Dynasty, viewing him as a legitimate three-down running back who represents more direct competition for Dobbins than Harvey or McLaughlin did last year. However, analyst plans to target Coleman as a midseason waiver pickup only, assuming Dobbins gets injured. Co-host notes Coleman 'passes a lot of the sniff tests, usage and abilities in both sides of the game,' but acknowledges difficulty due to Broncos' split backfield approach.

Panthers are 'over the moon' about Brooks; every report from team camp highlights his potential. If Brooks outperforms Hubbard in camp, he could be the RB1 by week three or sooner. He has much higher ceiling than Hubbard but lower floor. Analyst recommends buying Brooks as a zero-RB ceiling play in redraft, but sets a cutoff around round six/seven; if Brooks creeps into that range due to positive reports, analyst will exit due to two ACL tears in the last two years on the same knee. However, analyst is willing to absorb the injury risk given the second-round draft capital and team enthusiasm.

Rookie sixth-rounder from Penn State with ADP 200. Shows pretty good balance of volume and catches with decent touchdown production. Not a strong redraft target but could have value in best-ball formats as a backfill option.

Coming on board with Pittsburgh Steelers. Could give Aaron Rodgers another quick-release option, potentially reducing reliance on running back checkdowns and affecting Warren/Dowdle target volume.

Pittsburgh Steelers have arguably the easiest first-half schedule of any NFL team; in their first eight weeks, they face only one team with a winning record (New England), with the other seven teams combining for 46 wins and 73 losses in 2025, creating positive game scripts that benefit running backs in split backfields.

ADP 190 (slightly high for a third back). Broke foot before Senior Bowl, which caused him to slide down draft boards. Has couple of thousand-yard seasons but recent low volume and injuries. Could disrupt Tony Pollard's role once healthy, making him a longer-term speculative play.

Slightly better runner than Jalen Warren but not much. Likely in line for empty-calorie work and possibly more goal-line work. Pittsburgh backfield is split between Warren and Dowdle; you have to pick a side rather than roster both.

Analyst prefers Dowdle over other backfield options when forced to choose, citing his connection with Mike McCarthy from their time together in Dallas. If analyst had to choose between two-back backfield options, Dowdle is the pick, though analyst will take both backs.

ADP of 87 is attractive; Harvey has had an off-season fall similar to what analyst expected from Trevion Henderson. He had three top-10 weeks and two top-five weeks, showing ceiling potential. Analyst jumps on board when Harvey falls to triple-digit ADP (around pick 100), viewing him as a value play in the Broncos backfield.

ADP 76 is enticing for a back with four consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons and ~1,300 scrimmage yards per year. New offensive coordinator Brian Dable has good history of emphasizing one running back, which is valuable in this backfield. Should get hot start over Nicholas Singleton (who broke foot before Senior Bowl). Risk is how long Pollard maintains the role before Singleton returns.

Analyst notes that singular-use route specialist role for Pollard is 'mostly gone the way of the Dodo,' indicating a shift away from that specific role designation in current NFL landscape.

ADP of 51 is too high; analyst believes Henderson and Mondre Stevenson ADPs should be flipped (Henderson 51, Stevenson 75). Henderson did not shine until week nine when Stevenson got injured; when Stevenson returned healthy, he played significantly more snaps due to superior pass-blocking and pass-catching ability. Analyst was not drafting Henderson last year due to concerns.

Co-host notes Beatty made at least one grab in more games than not last year, exemplifying how Broncos' split backfield approach fragments touches across multiple backs and reduces fantasy value for all running backs in the offense.