Fantasy Football Weekly

Positioned as a viable second-round alternative to running backs; source explicitly states 'the wide receivers that are in this round are Justin Jefferson, Drake London, Nico Collins, A.J. Brown. You could make the case for any of those guys over Derek Henry and Omari in Hampton,' indicating WR options are competitive with lower-tier RBs in second round.

Positioned as a viable second-round alternative to running backs; source explicitly states 'the wide receivers that are in this round are Justin Jefferson, Drake London, Nico Collins, A.J. Brown. You could make the case for any of those guys over Derek Henry and Omari in Hampton,' indicating WR options are competitive with lower-tier RBs in second round.

Ranked #3-#4 second-round RB option behind Kenneth Walker and Chase Brown; source states 'it will be very close between Saquon Barkley and Devon Achane,' indicating near-equivalent value with Achane in the second round.

Ranked #3-#4 second-round RB option behind Kenneth Walker and Chase Brown; source states 'it will be very close between Saquon Barkley and Devon Achane,' indicating near-equivalent value with Barkley in the second round.

Ranked below Kenneth Walker, Chase Brown, Saquon Barkley, and Devon Achane in second-round RB tier; source explicitly states 'If you are Henry over Hampton, you're probably not drafting Hampton,' indicating Henry is a lower-priority second-round target relative to elite RB alternatives and other position options like Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Justin Jefferson, Drake London, Nico Collins, and A.J. Brown.

The source was initially skeptical of Chase Brown but is now immediately coming around on him after reviewing game logs. Brown handled the workload on a prolific Bengals offense (1,400 scrimmage yards, 88 targets, 11 total TDs last year); the Bengals didn't bring in anyone to compete with him. Even splits with and without a healthy Joe Burrow show no ammunition to avoid drafting him. Brown is a balanced, locked-in workhorse who gets plenty of targets—not flashy but a mystery box that isn't really a mystery. The source is in full capitulation mode and willing to shift Brown toward the front of the RB group to get him. Ranked #2 second-round RB by source, directly behind Kenneth Walker.

Kenneth Walker is the source's number one running back out of the second tier. The Chiefs have not had a 1,000-yard rusher while Mahomes has been starting QB; they signed Walker to a $43 million contract, signaling they acknowledge their running game stinks and want to fix it. With Eric Biennemi returning as OC (never finished worse than sixth in total points/yards and never had a RB as good as Walker), Walker has two paths to top-tier finish: pure volume (near lock for 300+ touches if anything goes wrong with Mahomes/Kelsey/Rice) or offensive dominance if everything gels. Walker's receiving metrics were solid (9+ yards per reception, 19% target per route rate), and he's a big-game player (Super Bowl MVP) who wants the rock. Ranked #1 second-round RB by source ahead of Chase Brown, Saquon Barkley, and Devon Achane.

Keaton Mitchell is one of the big industry helium picks and a major running back sleeper right now, flying up boards. His emergence as a sleeper creates workload concerns for Omari Hampton, as Mitchell's rise means Vidal (who had been forgotten) and Hampton will split work in a three-headed backfield.

Justin Fields is cited as a comparison point for Malik Willis's upside profile, with the source describing Willis's potential as 'Justin Fields-esque,' suggesting similar dual-threat capability and ceiling.

Malik Willis is identified as a high-upside QB option despite significant risk from only six career starts and a first-year defensive-minded head coach with limited proven weapons. In three Green Bay starts, Willis posted elite efficiency: 80% completion percentage, 6 total TDs (3 pass, 3 rush), 200+ passing yards per game, 18 passing attempts per game, 7 rush attempts per game, 58 rush yards per game, and yards-per-attempt matching Drake Mays' league-leading pace. Career EPA exceeds 0.2, completion rate 68%, off-target rate in single digits, passing rating near 100, and 40%+ of passes reaching the sticks. The source emphasizes Willis as a difference-maker in 1QB formats capable of top-10 weeks with Justin Fields-esque and prime Kyler Murray-esque upside. Specific game examples: Week 3 vs. Tennessee (202 passing yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 7 carries, 73 yards); Week 17 vs. Baltimore (288 passing yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 9 carries, 62 yards). The source recommends pairing Willis with a safer QB like Dart in late rounds as a high-upside complement.

Christian McCaffrey has been jumped by Justin Jefferson in ADP rankings across some drafts, indicating a relative decline in draft preference compared to Jefferson's rising stock.

Justin Jefferson is experiencing significant ADP movement upward, jumping both CeeDee Lamb and Christian McCaffrey, and even surpassing John Taylor in some drafts, signaling strong market confidence in his draft positioning.

Justin Jefferson is currently jumping CeeDee Lamb in ADP, indicating a shift in draft market preference away from Lamb in early-season drafts.

Bo Nix is coming off a brutal ankle injury and realized a lot of mobility last year that he might not have this year. The source believes Kyler Murray should be drafted over Bo Nix due to these injury concerns and the loss of mobility.

Kyler Murray should be drafted over Bo Nix and Matt Stafford. His last full season he had 572 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs (not his career high of 800 yards and 11 TDs in 2020). The Vikings waited until round 6 to draft a running back despite having aging Aaron Jones and underwhelming Jordan Mason, suggesting they may be relying on Murray's rushing upside to compensate for backfield deficiencies. The source questions whether Kevin O'Connell is a kingmaker; Vikings macro stats with O'Connell at the helm are very middle-pack—not bad, but nothing top-five in success rate, EPA, or yards per play. However, if Murray wins the job definitively, his ADP will climb.

Chris Olave is being paired with Tyler Shuck as a back-end WR1 at back-end WR1 price. The source notes Olave commands targets consistently and, combined with the Saints' fast-track schedule and bad defenses, could finish as a mid-tier WR1 at a discount. The source is bullish on the Saints as a value pairing.

Daniel Jones suffered a leg injury in week 14 and the source is worried about his health status heading into 2026. While he was QB7 in points per game weeks 1-13 (18.5 PPG, top 5 in EPA per attempt and YPA), the source is not drafting him due to injury concerns and uncertainty about full health at week 1, despite him being expected to participate in 7-on-7 drills and be a full participant at training camp.

Matthew Stafford finished QB4 last year as QB23 in ADP and is now QB14 at ADP 102; however, the source views his QB4 finish as fluky and likely to regress. Last year's 7.7% TD per attempt was a career high by a mile, though he has a 5.5% career rate. In the two years prior, he was QB26 and QB17 in points per game, throwing 20+ more TDs last year than those seasons. Without rushing production, he is dependent on Devontae Adams for goal-line scoring, but Adams' own numbers may not be sustainable. Late-round value is available if he stays healthy, but regression is expected.

Trevor Lawrence finished QB3 last year as QB20 in ADP and is now QB10 at ADP 91; the market is settling in the middle, not buying the top-side finish but viewing him as a back-end QB1. He had seven top-10 finishes and four top-five finishes. Regression risk is significant: 640 dropbacks and nine rushing scores are hard to project again. Bull case: Liam Cohen continuity, progression in critical snaps, arm and feet production, and mid-stream talent additions (Myers). Standalone value exists due to talented receiver room (Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Parker Washington) and pairing flexibility with Brenton Strange at tight end.

Drake May finished QB5 last year as QB16 in ADP and is now going as QB5 at ADP 54; the source views him as a top-three contender and highest-rostered quarterback, citing his dual-threat upside (deep passing, rushing), improved receiving weapons (A.J. Brown), and early-season ascension trajectory. Despite schedule concerns, the tools and personnel upgrades support continued upside.

Caleb Williams finished QB7 last year but is now going as QB6 at ADP 81; however, the source is very much out on him due to a completion percentage (64.5%) that ranked second-worst among QBs with 200+ attempts (only above Shedeur Sanders), poor turnover profile, and lack of defensive support to generate late-game fantasy points. His ADP rise is driven by stack dependency on pass catchers (Luther Burden, Colson Loveland) rather than standalone value.

Lamar Jackson has moved back to the fifth round in ADP, consolidating closer to other mid-round quarterbacks; the source characterizes this as a smash value at that price point relative to his QB1 upside.

Despite high volume opportunity (led the league in routes run in a prior year), Tucker has underperformed efficiency metrics: 15% target per route and just over one yard per route run. The source believes Tucker could get replaced given the lack of production relative to opportunity, making him a risky draft target despite his volume appeal.

The source likes Mayer as a draft pick despite injury history over the last couple of years; describes him as a forgotten man and notes his ADP is basically non-existent, making him an attractive target in redraft formats where the Raiders need receiving help beyond Bowers and Gentry.

The source cannot get themselves to draft Naylor, expressing skepticism about the Raiders' wide receiver group and indicating Naylor is not a player they are willing to roster in redraft.

Tucker Kraft is going in the 7th round, 74th overall, as TE7. The source calls him the most expensive piece of the cheap Packers stack but believes he should be going in the 4th or 5th round if healthy. Last year, Kraft ranked top 5 among all pass catchers (not just tight ends) in yards per target, yards after catch per reception, broken tackle rate, and passer rating when targeted. The source recommends a late-round dart throw at tight end if Kraft misses a couple weeks or has a slow start, but views him as a stud at his current ADP.

Jordan Love is going in the 11th round at approximately the same ADP as Baker Mayfield (QB20 area). The source anchors the cheap Packers stack with Love because the Packers' weak defense (Micah Parsons out until mid-October) and uncertain backfield (Josh Jacobs concerns) should force the team to lean into the passing game. Despite ranking 30th and 27th in passing attempts the last two seasons, the Packers ranked top 12 in passing touchdowns both years, showing efficient, aggressive play-calling. More passing volume is a net win for fantasy even if efficiency dips slightly.

Jalen McMillan is moving down draft boards despite strong efficiency metrics. The source is buying him on the way down because even in a down 2024 year, he posted 18% target per route run, more than 2 yards per route run, and nearly 15 yards per reception. He's effective in tight spaces and has a history of forcing his way onto the field and producing after injuries. The source prefers him over Ted Hurst (the training camp hype rookie) as a Z receiver in the Buccaneers offense, especially at a cheaper ADP.

Ted Hurst is a last-round pick for Buccaneers stocks and is moving up draft boards on training camp hype (described as a dynamo, the next Mike Evans). However, the source cautions that this hype may be overextended; the Buccaneers never explicitly stated Hurst would be the primary third receiver, and the interpretation stems from over-extrapolation of rookie training camp buzz. The source likes Hurst in dynasty but is not biting in redraft because he's rising too fast in his rookie year, and the source prefers McMillan's proven production.

Kenny Gainwell is going in the 9th round as RB36. The source adds him to the medium-priced Buccaneers stack as a complementary piece, preferring him over Bucky Irving (RB20) despite Irving's higher ADP. Gainwell offers a comfortable ADP and fits the stack's value thesis around a resurgent Buccaneers offense with a healthy Baker Mayfield and new offensive coordinator.

Emeka Egbuka is going in the 4th round, 44th overall, as WR20. The source believes fully in him as Baker Mayfield's primary pass catcher in the Buccaneers stack. Despite a hamstring injury derailing his season after a hot start (445 yards, 5 TDs in first five games), Egbuka has been rising as a steam pick and ADP breakout, reaching as high as the second round in high-stakes leagues. The source warns that ADP could creep into the 30s and advises drafters to be prepared. He's a smash at ADP 44 but may not be available there.

Baker Mayfield is going in the 11th round, approximately 126th overall, as QB20. The source stacks him as the medium-priced Buccaneers anchor because despite a shoulder injury in week 12 (non-throwing shoulder) and missing receivers, he clawed into the top 10 in both passing yards and passing touchdowns. With a healthy receiving core, new offensive coordinator Zach Robinson (who helped Atlanta's QB situation), and the Bucs' rushing game, the source expects a big resurgence for the offense at a comfortable ADP.

Dalton Kincaid is going off the board as TE12 at ADP 118. He offers 24% target per route run and more than 2.75 yards per route run, making him an extremely cheap alternative Bills stack option. The source prefers him over other late-round tight ends as a pass-catcher stack component because of his efficiency metrics and late-round cost, though the primary Bills stack focus remains Allen and Cook.

James Cook is going in the first round, 9th overall, as RB5. The source is all in on the Bills rushing package under Joe Brady, who elevated Cook as offensive coordinator and now has even more control as head coach. The Bills averaged the most rushing yards per game in the NFL last year and ranked second in yards per rush. Cook is the clear lead back with Josh Allen as the only other relevant rushing option (goal-line vulture). The source notes Cook and Allen had six simultaneous top-10 weekly finishes together last year, disproving the cannibalization concern.

Josh Allen is going in the early third round, 26th overall, as QB1. The source emphasizes his elite, consistent upside: six straight seasons as a top-two fantasy quarterback, averaging ~100 rush attempts per season, and hasn't missed a game in the last six years. His rushing volume and dual-threat ceiling make him a fantasy freak despite the early ADP cost. Notably, Allen has had six simultaneous top-10 weekly finishes with James Cook on the same roster, proving they don't cannibalize each other.

Analyst notes Bo Nix threw 600-plus passes last year and expects the Broncos to throw less going forward. Late-season ankle injury may reduce his scrambling tendency, potentially directing more touches to running backs. Nix's continued improvement is cited as part of the bull case for Broncos running backs, though analyst remains skeptical about actual production gains.

Co-host notes Beatty made at least one grab in more games than not last year, exemplifying how Broncos' split backfield approach fragments touches across multiple backs and reduces fantasy value for all running backs in the offense.

Co-host cites McLaughlin as example of Broncos' split backfield problem; notes he had at least four carries in eight of their last nine games, representing touches that fragment the backfield and hurt all running backs' fantasy value across the board.

Analyst has grown to like Coleman, especially in Dynasty, viewing him as a legitimate three-down running back who represents more direct competition for Dobbins than Harvey or McLaughlin did last year. However, analyst plans to target Coleman as a midseason waiver pickup only, assuming Dobbins gets injured. Co-host notes Coleman 'passes a lot of the sniff tests, usage and abilities in both sides of the game,' but acknowledges difficulty due to Broncos' split backfield approach.

Analyst expresses strong skepticism about Dobbins-led Broncos backfield; notes Dobbins will lead in touches until injury but injury timeline is uncertain. Last year Dobbins posted RB24 in points per game with poor receiving production (11 catches in 10 games, more games with negative receiving yards than double-digit receiving yards), forcing reliance on touchdown upside. Analyst concerned about durability and questions whether five healthy games of fringe RB2 production is worth the draft capital, stating 'I hate this backfield with a burning white hot passion' and 'I don't even want to deal with it.'