PodcastFrom Fantasy Football Weekly
The Legend Of Zero
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50 min
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Jul 24, 2026
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Fri, July 24, 2026
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Full transcript
Episode Transcript
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2:35Get tickets now at dojacat.com. Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio.
2:40Your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and advice.
2:44What's up and welcome back to another off-season edition of Fantasy Football Weekly.
2:48With your host and friend, John Laghezza, and my friend and your co-host, Mr.
2:53Jake Trowbridge. Jake, another week that you pulled me away from drafting for a half an hour.
2:59This better be worth it. I have a feeling it's going to be.
3:04We've got some good stuff on deck. How you doing, my man?
3:08So sorry to have done that to you so many times now, John.
3:13I'm doing phenomenal. And you know why? Because it's officially fantasy football season for me now, John.
3:19It doesn't really start for me until I've drafted in Scott Fish Bowl.
3:23And I've done that this past weekend. So it's feeling good.
3:27Well, that's a really great segue into the first thing.
3:31In case anyone's wondering, it's an industry league set up by Scott Fish, who does just so much great work that we want to shout him out.
3:40Now, I don't play in the tournament because I don't really have the bandwidth for the wild scoring we're going to go over in just one second.
3:50But I do always make sure to donate. And you can get that at Fantasy Cares Org, one word, on social media.
3:58Just search Scott Fish. And I kind of give, you know, more keeping piles of respect and praise on someone.
4:05You know, I have a soft spot for Christmas and giving family stuff myself.
4:10But he really goes out there and puts a ton, ton, metric ton of time and effort into this stuff.
4:17So, Jake, I saw the scoring board. And I'll be honest, it made my eyes cross at first.
4:23Just really quick. Six points for a touchdown, two points for a conversion.
4:28And that's where it kind of goes off the rails.
4:31It's half point PPR, half point for a first down, which is kind of cool.
4:37But then tight ends, just bonuses through the roof.
4:40They get an extra full point perception, extra full point for first down.
4:44Then there's 10-point bonuses for all the big games.
4:47300, 400 yards passing. But also explosive plays, 40 yards passing, rushing, and 20 yard receiving.
4:53You also don't need a quarterback in this one or any position in particular.
4:58So, just tell us how you attacked this one.
5:01My first question was, did you draft a lot of tight ends?
5:06You know, I might have drafted a few tight ends this time around.
5:10What is really nice about this year is that you don't have to have a specific set position at all.
5:17You can draft literally whoever you want. And so, I started, John.
5:21I looked at those big play bonuses. And I got really enticed by the tight ends.
5:27Because, yeah, you're getting three times the scoring for every catch and every first down.
5:32So, I was drafting out of the four spot.
5:36And I felt very pleased when Brock Bowers was sitting there.
5:39Felt like a very reasonable pick, John. Would you agree that coming out of the gates, that's a nice start?
5:47My gut reaction was to be shocked that Bowers dropped to four.
5:51This is a guy who could contend for the target lead.
5:55And if you're going to multiply those receptions by three, that's massive.
5:59Plus, we know he's got 20-yard catches in the bag also.
6:03So, I would imagine that you set a pace.
6:06And all the other really good tight ends went right after you.
6:10I mean, you weren't able to stack any other really good tight ends, were you?
6:16Oh, you would think so. You would think all these tight ends would fly off the board.
6:22But Trey McBride went a few picks later. But I'm sitting on the clock in the second round.
6:28And Colston Loveland's still there. Yes. So, I simply had to smash the button on Colston Loveland.
6:34And I thought, you know, starting with two tight ends, I got some giggles through the rooms.
6:40It's a unique start. I come back in the third round.
6:44Guess who's still there, John? Tyler Warren, who I presume to be the leading pass catcher on the Colts.
6:51All bits aside. All bits aside. Because I knew that you took three tight ends out of the box.
6:57I'm still legitimately shocked that a guy like Warren, again, with all the target voids, who's used in so many creative ways,
7:05who can be a volume guy, get tons of first downs, and explosive plays, fell so deep.
7:11Man, I would have to think you got away with fantasy murder here.
7:16All right. Just take you through it, because we do have to get into our zero share players.
7:22But just wrap us up. How far into the draft are you?
7:26How many tight ends did you go? And who ended up on the squad?
7:31Yeah, let me cut through the bit here. But I will tell you right now that I am currently, because you start
7:39at the live draft, you draft 10 rounds, and then it continues as a slow draft.
7:45So, I'm still drafting, technically. I've completed through round 15.
7:48And, John, I have literally nothing but tight ends on the drawster.
7:52I have 15. 15 tight ends and nothing else.
7:56Because it started as a good strategy, and then it turned into a little bit of a bit, a comedy bit at the live draft.
8:04And then it transitioned into an act of charity, because I started to say to folks, if you want to keep this
8:12alive, you know, if you want to see nothing but tight ends down this board, chip in a few bucks to Fantasy
8:20Cares, show me the receipt, and I'll keep drafting them.
8:24So, they kept doing that all day, so I kept drafting them.
8:28And it looks like at this point, I'm going to complete the run.
8:32I'm going to have 20 of these things when it's all said and done.
8:37I love that. You'll also be the busiest GM week zero.
8:41It is kind of funny, though. What starts is a bit.
8:45May end up with a trophy. I'm dead serious.
8:48I have to go get my hands on this full draft board now.
8:53I haven't done all of the math right now.
8:56It's just back of the napkin vote. When you're tripling up receptions, I'm sorry, with first down bonuses.
9:02Man, I can't believe it. That sounds like so much fun.
9:06All right. Now to the kind of meat and potatoes of today.
9:11We've done a little too much niceties, right? We got to get rid of that.
9:16Let's ruffle some feathers today. We're going to do zero share players.
9:20Now, I won't bury the lead. I'm a zero out kind of guy.
9:25There are lots of people that talk about building portfolios.
9:28Not my style. There are players that I really am very binary on.
9:33And I go yes. And I go no. And I will hand build literally several hundred drafts.
9:39I already have probably close to 200. And there's a lot of players I'm zero shared on.
9:45And I'm going to stay that way. So we're going to focus on a pair from each of us.
9:52I guess you could start this one off because you have the player that's the highest.
9:57And man, first round. So it's funny because it sounds like a popular, I'm not feeding him kind of guy.
10:04When you have an ADP of six, someone's drafting Christian McCaffrey.
10:08Talk to us about why you're off. You know, one of the best players of this generation.
10:14Yeah, a lot of when you phrase it that way, John, it's really hard to come back from.
10:21But he truly is one of the best running backs of this generation.
10:25I understand the argument for drafting him. Obviously, last year, if you avoided him because of the offseason injury stuff that was
10:33happening, you felt very foolish watching him finish as the overall RB1.
10:37And since 2019, if Christian McCaffrey has played a full season, Christian McCaffrey has finished as the overall RB1 or at least very close to it.
10:46But the problem is, in his last six seasons, you've only gotten that healthy CMC half of the time.
10:53Now he's sitting there at 30 years old and he's sixth off the board.
10:58It's RB3. It's just hard for me to look at what he did last year and be willing to try to copy and paste that.
11:07You don't have to do that exactly, right? Because he's not being taken first overall or even the first running back.
11:14But it still feels like you're drafting him very close to his ceiling.
11:19And I ask myself what the most likely outcome is with this guy.
11:24Is it that he repeats what he did last year?
11:27Or is it that he gets injured or falls off in some capacity?
11:32Because he had everything going right for him when the chips actually fell last year.
11:37It didn't look that way at the start, John.
11:40But the 49ers ended up unexpectedly without Brandon Ayuk for the entire season, without Brock Purdy for half the season, without Ricky
11:48Pearsall for half the season, George Kittle, of course, missed his requisite amount of time.
11:53Six games he ended up out for. And I don't think that's a coincidence then that CMC got a career high in
12:01carries and a career high in total touches. 400 plus total touches.
12:05For a guy who's 30 years old, John, it's concerning.
12:09I think I've maybe said this stat on the show before, but I just want to put it out there one more
12:17time because I keep coming back to it. I dug into the vaults here, John.
12:22Going back to 2020, there's been six times where a running back at least 25 years old, trying to filter out the
12:30super young guys, notched at least 350 touches. And five out of six times, that running back basically cratered off the face of the earth the following season.
12:40Derrick Henry is the only guy who managed to avoid that once.
12:44So it's a tough bet. Yeah, Henry really is like the living exception.
12:48I'm probably going to make the mistake of not being on him again this year.
12:54Man, the CMC stuff really is kind of scary.
12:57You mentioned a lot of the good meta points, right?
13:00There's an efficiency decline, generally over 350 touches. Now, he did have nine top five finishes last year.
13:07Holy macaroni, man. Was he great? But it was all pass catching, like you mentioned.
13:12They've gone and addressed a lot of that. You bring in Mike Evans.
13:17And always that Shanahan X spot has been one of the really desired, you know, retail, right?
13:23Location, location, location. One of the places you want to be in fantasy football.
13:28You know what I mean? I'm not shy of the spreadsheets.
13:32I wanted to see how bad the rushing stuff was for CMC.
13:36Check this out. Of 33 running backs last year with at least 150 rushes.
13:41So 33 running backs. CMC, 29th in yard per rush.
13:44It was below four. 28th yards after contact per rush.
13:48Right around two and three quarters. 23rd in EPA per rush.
13:52It was negative. So he wasn't even adding positive value.
13:55He was 22nd in success rate at 42%. 22nd in explosive rush rate at six and a half.
14:02And 21st in that stat that I talk about all the time with running backs.
14:07Zero or less. Right? I kind of call them negative.
14:10Zero is not necessarily negative. But, you know, negative rush attempts.
14:14It's not a positive rush attempt. Nearly 19% of his attempts went for either zero or negative yards.
14:21Oof. I don't know how many. He's not the best running back.
14:25Right? When we think of running back in totality.
14:28Yes, he's still uber talented. And like I said, borderline if not objectively generational.
14:33Right now stepping off the bus. I'm not so sure.
14:37One other thing that we haven't mentioned. And I know because I've stepped on that rake and had it smack me over
14:44and over like the sideshow of Bob's kind of bit was the running backs behind him are actually healthy this time around.
14:52I was the big Isaac Grendo guy. Womp, womp, womp.
14:56You know, sad trombone. But this year, last year, they drafted Caitlin Black out of Indiana third round.
15:02Year before, Jordan James out of Oregon fifth round.
15:05The drum beats are not crazy for either one, but they have talked them up and being competent.
15:12And there is at least a non-zero chance that one or both of those young men get a chance for some of the low calorie work.
15:21Might even be the work around the end zone if it's short yardage.
15:25Plenty of red flags here. Anything else from McCaffrey before we move on?
15:30I mean, I think he's going to be good.
15:33I think we both think he's going to score fantasy points.
15:37But at the number six, you're pretty sure this guy's the chance to one, finish the season and also finish the season as a one-on-one.
15:46I've got major concerns for both of those. Yeah, that's my takeaway.
15:50That's the thing. It's not that I don't want people to be like, wow, Jake is just really, you know, trying to
15:58upset Christian McCaffrey out here, trying to talk bad about him.
16:02Not at all. Love you, CMC. But it's just that type of risk in the first six picks isn't something I'm prepared to do.
16:10I'll take big risks later in drafts, but not that early in the first round.
16:16Yeah, it's funny. That's kind of feedback I get all the time from my own writing and streams where I'm the first
16:23person to say, I do not believe in injury optimism.
16:27I don't like to pay for things we've never seen before.
16:31Or, yeah, until the later rounds, the dot, dot, dot in the parentheses after that is until it doesn't cost me anything.
16:39And the risk-reward ratio we should be prioritizing the entire time goes in my favor.
16:44Yeah, I'll take injury optimism when it doesn't cost me anything.
16:48I don't want it in the first round. I mean, you're putting him next to a guy like Ashton Gentry, who we've
16:56been talking about all summer so far. Or he's moved from the front of the second into the middle of the first.
17:03I've had him in front of CMC the entire time.
17:07And now high-stakes leagues are reflecting that. Gentry's inside the top eight, inside the top six, right next to or in front of CMC.
17:15So not to necessarily appeal to authority or look to confirm my priors, but the market is agreeing with us.
17:22I'm with you. How about where would you take CMC?
17:26If he gets into the second round, if he makes it to the turn, are you taking him at 13?
17:33Absolutely. Absolutely. Okay. It's completely a matter of him.
17:36Honestly, if I'm sitting there at, I don't know, the 1-11 and he's on the board and I have that short turn,
17:44it's a lot easier to do that game because you're not waiting so long to come back and playing the guessing game
17:52of who's going to be there for you in the second round quite as much.
17:57Yeah, I'm glad. I'm glad that you said that because it's fair, but also it can reflect our true perspective.
18:04You don't think he's bad at football, but there are real opportunity costs going on here.
18:10All right, the next player was one of my zero-fade guys.
18:14You know, not as high up as yours, but still inside the top 35 picks.
18:19Also another running back, Kyron Williams of the Rams.
18:22And I'm definitely getting some eye rolls already and some, you know, those teeth-like sucking things that my daughter does.
18:29You know, I get it, but down the stretch, we saw that workload really start to converge.
18:35After week 11, Kyron only had two top eight finishes, and I mentioned eight because he never got above that.
18:42And Corum in that same span was the overall RB3.
18:46Week 14, Kyron played that week. 12-1, 28-2, and he caught a ball for three yards.
18:52So there is some ceiling, even when they were both on the field.
18:56Then when you start to zoom in a little bit more, it really gets worse for Kyron.
19:02Again, that same time frame. He did out-touch Corum 16-10.5, but Corum was way better across the board.
19:09And we can even look at the year-to-date stats last year.
19:12Corum was better in terms of fantasy points per snap.
19:16He was better in yards per attempt, yards before contact per rush, EPA per rush, and explosive rush rate.
19:23And a lot of these, the EPA and explosive rush rate is nearly double, if not more, than Kyron.
19:29And of course, I always add the layer of heavy or eight-man boxes.
19:34Corum faced more heavy boxes, 52% to 46%. So it's not even like Kyron the banger was easier to perceive as a
19:42run play, so they were up on him. No, that wasn't the case.
19:46Corum kind of had the tougher sledding and was better.
19:50And then the piece de resistance in that, you know, I'm saying week 11 because that was really when the convergence happened.
19:58How about goal line rushes, which I've defined as inside the five-yard line?
20:02Corum had 10 to Kyron Williams' eight. So this is not down the stretch.
20:07This was not really Kyron's backfield anymore. Because if I'm going to get the majority of the goal line touches with what's
20:15like a 70-pick ADP discount, maybe 60-pick ADP discount, Corum's been one of the dead zone RB guys I like when I'm passing off Kyron.
20:24This is one of these anti-takes that we've been talking about.
20:28If you don't like Kyron, you should be drafting Corum.
20:31I've been trying to really address that my own fantasy game.
20:35What do you think about Kyron Williams? And are you even drafting him at all?
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22:31Left it to the paint. But shit is not a dog.
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22:39I actually have been drafting a little bit of Kyron Williams.
22:43And you certainly make a lot of valid points in terms of what his efficiency is and what his sort of play-by-play looks like.
22:52I think what's hard is when you step back and you just see in totality that it seems like all Kyron Williams
22:59does is finish as a top 10 running back despite all of these struggles.
23:04And so it feels like year after year, you go, ugh.
23:08The logical case doesn't support what he ends up becoming by the end of the season.
23:14And I don't know if it's simply a factor of that offense.
23:18If it's just something where maybe, yes, Blake Corum is this efficient or seems to be much better than Kyron Williams because
23:26he's not getting quite as much work overall. Sometimes that even just happens.
23:31There are guys who have been known throughout their NFL careers as running backs.
23:35You are really great if you get 100 to 150 touches.
23:39If you start getting more than that, then it starts to look a little bit shoddy.
23:45I don't know that that's the case with Blake Corum.
23:49I think it's probably just folks going, well, Corum was there last year and things still worked out for Kyron Williams.
23:56So I'm going to go ahead and invest. I don't hate it.
24:00I don't love it either with Kyron. Yeah, I conveniently left out all the counterpoints to my own argument, which is, you
24:08know, the Rams are an excellent offense that could support two running backs.
24:13And I believe that. So it's similar to the CMC thing.
24:16We're not trying to throw dirt on these guys' fantasy grave so much as it's really a price thing for Kyron.
24:24I'd like to see him around later. And again, I think the Corum price is really good.
24:30I think they should be a little bit closer together.
24:33And we've seen that in years past in the Steelers backfield and the Vikings backfield last year.
24:39And it just hasn't been. There's been this disparity.
24:43So I'm going with the cheaper and kind of younger option.
24:47But I fully understand if the Rams are going to produce at the same level, right?
24:52Number one in points per game. Number one in yards per game.
24:56Number one in success rate. Number one in first downs per drive.
25:01Number one in points per drive. And they're objectively awesome.
25:04So, yeah, there's definitely room for both to produce.
25:07But I have found last thing, and maybe you can add on this before we take a quick break, is the way
25:15I'm perceiving the Kyron price is there's been this prevalence of pushing running backs to the fore, which I'm agreeing with.
25:23I think you need to do that. But I think he's getting sucked into this tailwind, right?
25:29The current – I'm coming from Virginia Beach, you can tell.
25:33The current is kind of pulling him out where I don't quite feel the same about Kyron opposed to, let's say, a
25:40Brees Hall is going right next to him. Where I think Hall might be a better back, better in the pass game, that has a greater share.
25:50Again, I could be wrong because the offense is not nearly as good.
25:54So how are you dealing with, like, those back-end RB1s?
25:58Justin, is it like a meta draft plan type of thing?
26:02Yeah, it's this prevalence of gravitating towards anybody with a workhorse sensibility at this point.
26:07So Kyron Williams feels to have the workhorse sensibility.
26:10And you mentioned Brees Hall, who certainly – yeah, it's like, you know, all due respect to the backups there.
26:17Isaiah Davis, sure. Braylon Allen, Wisconsin alum. I have to appreciate him.
26:22But you just go, well, Brees Hall is getting all the work.
26:26And it doesn't even matter necessarily if he is a better individual running back.
26:31It's just a matter of gauging the offenses times workload.
26:34It feels like that's the equation right now that's pumping all these guys up into the same bubble.
26:41Javante Williams, I think, is probably categorically in that same boat.
26:45Even though I would say I would much rather have both Brees Hall and Kyron Williams than Javante Williams.
26:51It's kind of a flattening, I think, of this group.
26:55Probably just because everybody's so desperate to get running backs, John.
26:59Yeah, I love that. And I really do agree, which is part of why I'm trying to get in earlier, right, before
27:07the wave kind of brings me out. That was really well put.
27:11I wish I put it that way. All right, so before we move on, it's a pretty good segue also into the second half.
27:19The whistle was about to blow on our first half.
27:23And it's a running back that I defaulted to but holding my nose.
27:27And it's one of your zero fake eyes you're going to get to after this quick break.
27:33This summer, there are 250 reasons to join T-Mobile.
27:37Girls trip? Booked. And switching to T-Mobile helped make it happen.
27:41With experience beyond, switch and get $100 back. Plus $650 in value in built-in plan benefits.
27:46That's $750 in your first year guaranteed. And honestly, that $100 back?
27:50I'm putting it towards the zip line. Now that's how you do summer.
27:55Exactly. Best switch I ever made. This is just one reason to join T-Mobile this summer.
28:01There are 250 reasons. Find yours. Savings based on the value of benefits included with experience beyond like entertainment and one year
28:08of AAA Classic and DashPass on us. Benefits made before our activation.
28:13See plan for details. Get $100 via virtual prepaid MasterCard with eligible ported, no cash access and expires in six months.
28:20Issued by Sunrise Banks and a member FDIC. Allow eight weeks.
28:24Are you looking for support in your weight management journey?
28:28ZepBound Terzepatide may be able to help. ZepBound is a prescription medicine used with a reduced calorie diet and increased physical activity to help adults with obesity.
28:37Or some adults with overweight who also have weight-related medical problems to lose excess body weight and keep the weight off.
28:45ZepBound is approved as a 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5 or 15 milligram injection.
28:49ZepBound contains Terzepatide and should not be used with other Terzepatide-containing products or any GLP-1 receptor agonist medicines.
28:56It is not known if ZepBound is safe and effective for use in children.
29:01Don't share needles or pens or reuse needles. Don't take if allergic to it.
29:06Or if you or someone in your family had medullary thyroid cancer.
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30:25All right, Jake. The marching band is wrapping up.
30:28We're going to go to that running back that I was alluding to that I've been pulling the trigger on, not with
30:36confidence, but also because I don't want to end up, you know, empty handed.
30:40And it's David Montgomery with Houston. He's backed up, but been efficient.
30:45But it was a great team, right? A team that could support two guys.
30:50He's going to a team that probably can't. But now he's the lead role.
30:55ADP 54. It feels fairly priced. Again, whenever I take him, I am almost literally holding my nose.
31:01Talk to us about David Montgomery. You might push me right into the zero cliff myself here.
31:07We'll see. Sometimes, some days, John, I look at David Montgomery and I go, I get it.
31:13Sure. Again, it's a workload thing. And he's going much later.
31:17That group that we talked about just very recently, Kyron Williams, Brees Hall, Javante Williams.
31:22If you're just looking at the workload argument, he fits in there probably.
31:27But I think David Montgomery is the trappiest trap that's ever trapped in fantasy football right now.
31:33You are looking at that ADP 54. That puts him in that middle of the fifth round.
31:39Every year, there's this group of running backs, kind of similar to what we were talking about earlier, where they're getting pumped up the board.
31:48And no one really necessarily wants to draft them.
31:51But you kind of feel like you have to because the position's really starting to thin out.
31:57You know, this is the dead zone of running backs.
32:00Yes, fifth round should not be that. And yet it feels like with David Montgomery there, that's exactly what it is.
32:08This David Montgomery is that little kid from the sixth sense's favorite running back.
32:13I have to imagine because he sees dead zone running backs.
32:17And he does see David Montgomery sitting there as sort of the pack leader.
32:22And I just don't get the upside argument, I guess.
32:25We're looking at David Montgomery going from a top four scoring offense in Detroit to a middle of the pack scoring offense in Houston.
32:34He's going from a very respectable offensive line to what was one of the worst offensive lines last year.
32:40Maybe it improves. Maybe. Maybe. But it's still pretty unlikely to be as good as what he had.
32:47And I also think that people are just underselling Woody Marks potential in this backfield.
32:52I see him going just desperately late in drafts, nearing the last round of drafts as like this cast off.
32:59And I understand that Woody Marks last year, he was not a good workhorse running back.
33:05He wasn't. When he had to unexpectedly fill in, first for Joe Mixon, whose mysterious foot injury kept him out all year.
33:13Houston clearly thought they were going to have him.
33:16They didn't. And then they bring in Nick Chubb.
33:19Nick Chubb is running in sand basically the whole time.
33:22So Woody Marks has to take on a much bigger role than I think they wanted him to.
33:29Because as a pure pass catcher, John, Marks was the best in his rookie class by a long shot.
33:36And I think he still has that potential. We didn't get to see much of it last year, which was so flabbergasting
33:43because he was really great as a pass catcher.
33:46I don't know how if you're the Texans, you see what he did early in the season as that third down back guy.
33:55And you just back away from it. I mean, he was getting, you know, 10 yards per target at a point in last season.
34:03And so I think Montgomery is this guy. He looks good.
34:07We still have visions of him in Detroit, like he's going to magically get double digit touchdowns again.
34:13And I think that's what you need if he's anything more than a decent flex play.
34:19But I don't, I don't see it, John. Like I was looking at guys going right after him.
34:25You tell me, I guess, who is more interesting to you in this, in this range here.
34:31So we've got Montgomery and right near him is DeAndre Swift.
34:35Do you see a big gap there in value?
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36:18Tell your doctor if you get a lump or swelling in your neck.
36:22Stop ZepBound and call your doctor if you have severe stomach pain or a serious allergic reaction.
36:28Severe side effects may include inflamed pancreas or gallbladder problems.
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36:37If you're nursing, pregnant, plan to be, or taking birth control pills.
36:41Taking ZepBound with a sulfonylurea or insulin may cause low blood sugar.
36:45Side effects include nausea, diarrhea, and vomiting, which can cause dehydration and worsen kidney problems.
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36:54Welcome to Alaska Airlines. We're now flying to London.
36:57So enjoy a cup of tea in your lie-flat suite and get ready to experience all London has to offer.
37:04Lie back, relax, and let your dreams take flight.
37:07Welcome to Alaska Airlines. Doja Cat. My V World Tour.
37:11I said what I said. I don't care. Live in concert.
37:14With special guest, Lotto. I've done it all. Feel like shotting low.
37:19Left it to the paint. But shit is not a dog.
37:23Doja Cat. North America in 2026. Get tickets now at dojacat.com.
37:26I mean, you really want to be attached to the Chicago touchdowns.
37:31In that case, if you could. I've even kind of, I don't know.
37:35I've been dropping back for guys like Rashad White or even Tony Pollard.
37:40That a lot of the arguments feel similar. And I keep asking myself why I'm paying it.
37:46And you nailed all of it. Radio listeners can't see just the really uncomfortable, uncomfortable faces I was making throughout your entire argument.
37:54Because I couldn't, the only thing I might disagree with is the double digit touchdowns.
37:59I do think Montgomery has a chance to get there because I do, I absolutely think it's going to be his job inside of the five.
38:09Other than that, I think he could lose every other aspect of the work.
38:13And that is kind of worrisome inside the top 55.
38:17It was really hard for me to find positive notes.
38:21You know, I mentioned drafting but not excited. I put he's a little better than expected because my expectations were pretty low.
38:28And I put goal line work. That's not enough to draft a guy at number 54 or 55.
38:35He had a negative EPA per rush, 43% success rate.
38:38That 15% negative attempt rate. Now the 15% is not terrible.
38:42It's usually over 18 is when you're worried. But he's not explosive, 6%.
38:47He only had, you know, three 20-yard rushes out of 158.
38:51There might be a real lack of explosivity here, right?
38:54No one, nobody's making a case for Montgomery explosive plays.
38:58So what are we hoping for? He was already the second best pass catcher.
39:03And I think you might be right. He might be the second best pass catcher again.
39:08So yeah, he might lead the backfield in catches the first month.
39:13But right now, I think he might be an underdog to lead them in catches, let's say, after the bye.
39:20Now, the thing I wrote at the bottom, the saving grace here, because touchdowns will always matter.
39:26I think Houston will be a little bit better.
39:29And my thought of why they got away from the Woody receptions was really a condemnation of the state of that offensive line was horrendous.
39:38They didn't really do enough to address it where we should be really confident.
39:43Yeah, the more we talk about it, the more I'm getting away from Montgomery.
39:48My daughter would say, it gives me the ick, Jake.
39:51It gives me the ick. Old school LeGarrett Blunt vibes, if I can.
39:56Yeah, you know what? That's, if you went LeGarrett Blunt plus, like you would just put in a kind of nebulous descriptor
40:03at the end, I'd be fervently agreeing with you.
40:07I think I'm going to get away from Montgomery.
40:10It's another one where I don't think he'll bust out, but you shouldn't be making picks, especially at that point in the
40:18draft, that come with so many red flags. He feels like the kind of guy that you won't even be able to drop him either.
40:26And sometimes those are the worst picks. You're invested in him.
40:30He plays, but he has no ceiling with kind of a relatively low floor.
40:35He feels like the RB2 that gets dropped into a flex role.
40:40And that's really not where we want to be.
40:43The next player on the board was mine. Receiver moving to Buffalo in a much more explosive offense, which is usually a bullish sign.
40:51I'm not feeling the vibes. It's DJ Moore. We've just had a bunch out of me.
40:57Can we get your take first on DJM? Denny might have just been getting crowded out in Chicago.
41:03He did have that one really good season with poor quarterback play.
41:07I don't know. What do you think about DJ Moore?
41:11He's going to pick 60. There's a lot of wide receivers I like at that point.
41:17He's not one of them, Jake. Yeah, I get that.
41:20I've been dabbling a little bit with him. So I'm not completely staying away, but I'm terrified to draft him because I see two paths for DJ Moore.
41:30There's a fork in the woods. He can go one or the other direction.
41:35He can either be the next Stefan Diggs in Buffalo or he can be the next Amari Cooper in Buffalo.
41:42And those situations are drastically different. If he's the next Stefan Diggs in Buffalo, boy, we should just be thrilled that we're
41:50able to draft him where he's going right now.
41:53If he's the next Amari Cooper in Buffalo, we shouldn't be touching him at all.
41:58We shouldn't be touching him with somebody else's draft at that point.
42:03I think, though, DJ Moore, you mentioned that he probably needed a change of scenery, or at least that was an inference.
42:10I think getting out of Chicago is probably a better result than if he had stayed in Chicago.
42:17But that's not saying a ton. It's just not.
42:20I still think it's going to be a run-heavy offense, John.
42:24So he does scare me. Yeah, it's nerve-wracking. Last year, Josh Allen had me adding Brandon Cooks.
42:30So, you know, he can make lemonade out of lemons, apparently.
42:34But it's hard to get really too excited. When you dive in on more, to me, it looks a lot like a declining profile.
42:42Right? That feels quantifiable. Here we go. 29 years old.
42:46He did have three top ten finishes, but never above the wide receiver seven.
42:51So there was already a lack of ceiling. And again, 29 with career lows.
42:56And this is including a rookie year, which to me is very worrisome.
43:00We've often talked about how it takes repetitions. You know, so usually an entire rookie season is not great.
43:07You wouldn't want to be at your lowest point in fantasy points per route.
43:12Less than a third of a point per route, which is not good.
43:17He had his fewest receptions, 50, but also fewest receptions per game below three.
43:21Yikes. Fewest receiving yards, 682, but also fewest receiving yards per game, 40.1.
43:26His lowest EPA on targets and lowest EPA per target.
43:30Just a tenth of a point per target. Not very good.
43:33His fewest amount of first downs at 32. His fewest yards after the catch.
43:38Also yards after the catch per reception. That's at 4.1.
43:42And then those, you know, my advanced numbers that I look at the most.
43:47Lowest yards per route at less than one and a quarter.
43:51And his lowest target per route that was right around 15%.
43:55He had never been below 19. So no matter how you spin it, he was worse deep.
44:01He was worse close. He was worse at earning targets.
44:04He earned fewer and did less with them. Yes, Josh Allen could be the carrying tool.
44:10I worry a little bit about the efficiency numbers because the Bears offense was good.
44:15So you'd like to think that, yes, totals might fall when you're surrounded with talent.
44:21That makes sense. But shouldn't that talent draw attention to open up explosives?
44:25And we just didn't get it. So when you put it all together, you know, bibbidi-bobbidi-boop, I'm worried.
44:31And again, we talk about 1v1s. Right now, you can get either Christian Watson or Carnell Tate at the same ADP.
44:39You have to make that decision. Very hard to get both.
44:43You're never getting all three of them. And I'm always taking Watson and usually preferring Tate in that spot, depending on my mood.
44:51Right? Watson with the injuries opened up targets. We've seen him win.
44:55Feels like a clear number one. Tate, I'm a little bit worried about the total kind of offensive environment.
45:02But we've seen day ball make kingmakers of early first rounders.
45:06He's got a bone to pick with the league.
45:09And maybe we get progression from Ward. How can we take more of either one of those guys, man?
45:16I'm struggling. Last points on more before we get out of here.
45:20Yeah, don't do it. Take Christian Watson. And just if you're worried about the injuries there, well, don't play him when he's injured.
45:28There you go. Simple. Simple solution. Bench him when he's out.
45:32Play him when he's not. But I do think that if anybody's still holding on hope, I don't want to completely rip it away from him, John.
45:41Because I feel we should try to end on a positive note in some capacity.
45:47I will just say something positive about DJ Moore while saying something kind of negative about the Chicago Bears, which is my bread and butter.
45:56The Chicago Bears and Caleb Williams, they looked good in totality when you look at all of their stats.
46:02But Caleb Williams, not a great or accurate passer in basically 57 minutes of most football games.
46:08He was just above Shadur Sanders in terms of accuracy, completion percentage last year.
46:13So that's an upgrade for DJ Moore going to Josh Allen.
46:17Yeah, you probably could have put that period after passer.
46:21He's not an accurate passer. He's just he's not an accurate passer or at least dot dot dot yet.
46:27Now, if I could, I was going to end with something positive.
46:32Give me some credit for it. And it was my anti take was that if I'm not drafting Moore, I am really,
46:39really bullish on Dalton Kincaid, who I think could be the major threat in the offense, who is having a healthy camp
46:47and had all the efficiency stats that we like.
46:50He was over one and three quarter points, fancy points per target.
46:55I love that over 24 percent target per route, over 2.8 yards per route.
47:00But extrapolate that at pick 125 in the great offense, because, again, we don't I don't necessarily think Moore is bad.
47:07I think he's too expensive. But I do want to be attached to the Buffalo offense.
47:13And I think he's being good will be good.
47:16And I'm just getting it a little bit later down in draft board.
47:20So, yeah, it was really great. We're off CMC.
47:24We're off David Montgomery. We're off Kyron Williams. We're off DJ Moore.
47:28And we're making sure that we all donate to Fantasy Cares Orb.
47:32So from John and Jake, we really do appreciate everyone kind of hanging along with us as we do the hard charge towards opening kickoff.
47:41I'm really excited, Jake. So I'll see you in about 100 drafts, my friend.
47:46Catch everybody later and have a great weekend. Welcome to Alaska Airlines.
47:50We're now flying to London. So enjoy a cup of tea in your live flat suite and get ready to experience all London has to offer.
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