Fantasy Football Season Is Here

AJ Brown sits in a second tier of wide receivers below the six premium picks (Chase, Puka, JSN, Jefferson, St. Brown, Lamb), creating a significant ADP gap between the elite tier and the next tier that includes London, Rice, Collins, and Pickens.

Aaron Jones fits into a late-round running back slot in Davis Mattek's draft team build, positioned after the round-five tier (Tuton, Swift, Bucky, Price, Judkins, Henderson) and alongside J.K. Dobbins as a viable late-round option; Mattek notes that skipping Dobbins there hurts a little bit, suggesting both are valuable late-round targets.

Listed as one of five elite QB options for 2024 season draft strategy alongside Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Tua Tagovailoa. Davis Mattek frames the QB landscape as highly competitive, stating 'you better hope you get the one correct out of Rogers, Brassette, Mendoza, Gino or Tua,' indicating Rodgers is in the tier of QBs expected to produce at an elite level if they start all 17 games.

Pierce has touchdown upside potential; the source doesn't expect him to score 10 touchdowns, but acknowledges he definitely can, indicating the focus is on touchdown ceiling rather than route diversity or scheme changes.

Classified as one of six premium wide receiver picks in the current draft landscape (alongside Chase, Puka, JSN, Jefferson, and Lamb), reflecting elite-tier ADP and draft capital allocation. Selected in first round (9th slot) of DraftKings Millionaire Maker draft; Davis Mattek describes first round as 'a little bit of a weird' ADP landscape with CMC and JT positioning, suggesting St. Brown represents a strong value pick in that context. However, Mattek notes that St. Brown and London do not feel quite as spicy, suggesting diminished excitement or value compared to prior expectations.

Davis Mattek was taking Braelon Allen in drafts but has shifted away from him, reconsidering his evaluation after seeing additional information, suggesting a pivot away from the player due to ADP or evaluation concerns.

Brandon Aiyuk cannot currently play for the 49ers, Commanders, or any NFL team; he has not completed the necessary steps for reinstatement, creating a complete eligibility block regardless of landing spot.

Davis Mattek highlights Breece Hall at Round 4 ADP as exceptional value, stating he cannot pass on the opportunity, indicating Hall is significantly underpriced relative to his projected production and role security.

Davis Mattek suggests passing on Jadarian Price for Brian Thomas Jr. is probably not a good idea, indicating Thomas Jr. is a preferred target over Price in draft strategy.

Lamb is positioned among the six premium wide receiver picks in the 2024 draft landscape—alongside Chase, Puka, JSN, Jefferson, and St. Brown—maintaining elite-tier ADP and draft capital status. Mattek emphasizes a huge gap separates this elite tier from the next tier. In zero running back builds, Mattek wants to target Chase, Puka, JSN, or Luck into Lamb or JJ at the turn.

Christian Kirk's health status directly impacts the 49ers receiving distribution; if Kirk stays healthy, it would be negative for Deon Stribbling's target share, indicating Kirk is the preferred option in that role.

Davis Mattek's quantitative model projects McCaffrey to lead the 49ers in receptions by over 22 receptions, indicating huge passing game volume. However, an injury to McCaffrey would dramatically change the entire 49ers offensive setup, making him injury-dependent for the team's overall receiving distribution.

Davis Mattek would never take Cooper Kupp in a managed league despite Kupp being good for best-ball formats, indicating a preference mismatch between league types. Mattek didn't really like Kupp as a prospect despite him being a first-round pick, indicating skepticism about his fantasy upside. However, Mattek notes that if Kupp were a 49er instead of a Ram, he'd go in round five and be very expensive, suggesting his current ADP is lower due to being on the Rams rather than a more pass-heavy offense.

Deebo Samuel (referenced as 'Persaw') would benefit significantly if George Kittle suffers an injury, indicating he is a secondary receiving option dependent on Kittle's health status.

The source uses Derrick Henry as a contextual example when discussing NFL player nutrition and macronutrient requirements during draft preparation. The source speculates that Henry, as an elite running back in heavy training, would likely consume approximately 50% carbohydrates, 30% protein, and 20% fat, with an estimated daily protein intake around 300 grams and total caloric intake exceeding 5,000 calories per day—primarily from chicken, white fish, and high-quality steak rather than discounted meat.

Davis Mattek evaluates DeVonta Smith's ADP as appropriately priced, indicating he is not concerned about Smith going too high in drafts and sees fair value at current market price.

On 49ers training camp PUP list recovering from Achilles injury; Davis Mattek doubts week 1 availability despite team's public statements, citing rehab concerns and the logistical burden of traveling to Australia for season opener. Mattek estimates Kittle likely misses week 1 against Rams but plays week 2, with potential three-week rehab window if he stays home while team travels. Mattek has been below market on Kittle throughout draft season, not bullish on a 33-year-old returning from Achilles injury, preferring his teammates instead; holds only 3.6% exposure in best-ball leagues, reflecting skepticism relative to consensus draft positioning. However, Mattek evaluates Kittle as one of the most survivable players in fantasy football with insane spike weeks, though he likes him slightly less on DraftKings because his production is heavily touchdown-dependent, making him more volatile in PPR formats.

Pickens is positioned in the second tier of wide receivers below the six premium picks (Chase, Puka, JSN, Jefferson, St. Brown, Lamb), with a significant ADP gap between this tier and the elite group.

J.K. Dobbins fits into a late-round running back slot in Davis Mattek's draft team build, positioned after the round-five tier (Tuton, Swift, Bucky, Price, Judkins, Henderson) and alongside Aaron Jones as a viable late-round option; Mattek explicitly notes that skipping Dobbins there hurts a little bit, indicating strong value at this stage.

Davis Mattek indicates Jacoby Brissett might not play, suggesting uncertain playing time and limited fantasy upside.

Davis Mattek projects Jadarian Price to receive approximately 250 touches and score 8-10 touchdowns with decent passing game volume; he expresses strong conviction that Price would be a surprising bust, indicating confidence in Price's floor and role security despite rookie status.

Brooks is identified as one of the good late-round running back options for zero running back builds, alongside JCM, Harvey, Manungai, and Andre Warren.

Davis Mattek likes Jalen Coker among the rookie wide receivers but notes a bad landing spot as a significant concern for his fantasy value, limiting his upside despite prospect appeal.

Davis Mattek discusses quarterback ADP strategy broadly, noting discomfort with the position overall and suggesting you have to 'pay up' at quarterback this year; no specific Hurts analysis is provided.

Jaylen Royals couldn't even get on the field in year one for the Kansas City Chiefs; despite the Chiefs' thin wide receiver group, his lack of early playing time suggests limited fantasy upside.

Mattek expects Goff to be available at pick 105 in his draft and is targeting him as a quarterback option at that ADP.

Jauan Jennings (referenced as 'Tonis') would benefit significantly if George Kittle suffers an injury, indicating he is a secondary receiving option dependent on Kittle's health status.

Davis Mattek prefers Joe Burrow in the quarterback range where the field is flat with options like Watson, Judkins, Henderson, Rome, Tate, and Price clustered together; the source has very little Burrow on DraftKings, suggesting this range offers value.

Davis Mattek has drafted Brooks 114 times across best-ball leagues for $911 total with 9% exposure and average pick of 125, representing a +24.2 pick delta versus ADP. This indicates Mattek views Brooks as undervalued relative to consensus and actively targets him in drafts.

The source's quantitative model projects the Bills for 31.1 points in week 17, but the source is not nervous about being underweight or fading Allen despite this projection.

Davis Mattek positions Jefferson among the six premium wide receiver picks in the 2024 draft landscape, grouped alongside Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and CeeDee Lamb; this tier represents the elite consensus at the position.

Davis Mattek reports Keenan Allen is 100% healthy and will play this season, clearing injury concerns; he is hearing Chiefs or Ravens as potential landing spots, with Kansas City making sense as a clear backup option to Rashee Rice.

Selected in second round of DraftKings Millionaire Maker draft out of 9th slot; no explicit take provided beyond draft selection.

Davis Mattek takes Michael Penix Jr. in drafts but allocates very minimal resources to him, indicating a low-conviction, late-round flier approach rather than a core target.

Mike Washington Jr. is cited as a historical example of how RAS (Relative Athletic Score) testing impacts draft stock; he was a fifth-round pick because of a 10 RAS score, whereas he would have been undrafted with an 8.5 RAS. This context is used to illustrate how Singleton's strong testing could have elevated his draft position.

Mahomes is used as the draft tier reference point for QB strategy. Davis Mattek advises that if you take a QB before Mahomes, you should not take three QBs total, indicating Mahomes is the cutoff for early QB investment.

Davis Mattek positions Nacua among the six premium wide receiver picks in the 2024 draft landscape, grouped alongside Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and CeeDee Lamb; this tier represents the elite consensus at the position.

Johnston's role is secure and will not be diminished; he plays a role that is awesome for modern fantasy football with higher average depth of target and generates yards after catch, making him more likely to generate big plays. Mattek emphasizes the Chargers will not stop throwing him the ball or having him be a huge part of their offense because other receivers like Ladd and Charlie Kolar cannot generate those big plays. Mattek took Johnston at pick 81 in his draft. If Johnston's drops don't reappear, he is easily worth his ADP; however, Mattek notes he is not a huge target earner, which is a limiting factor for his ceiling. Johnston can definitely score 10 touchdowns, though Mattek doesn't think he will; the key with Johnston is how many touchdowns he can score.

Davis Mattek is targeting Quinshon Judkins in round six, suggesting confidence in his value at that draft position. Mattek identifies Judkins as one of the round five running back options with legitimately top-10 running back upside and considers him a strong candidate for zero running back builds, suggesting he can be taken early in that strategy without diminishing returns.

LaPorta is included in a draft team build, indicating he is being considered as a viable option in the current draft environment.

Davis Mattek drafts Shedeur Sanders despite believing he 'sucks,' because he projects to start the back half of the season, making him a value pick in later rounds. Additionally, Mattek notes Shedeur is 'probably one of the best picks' around round 20 on DraftKings, indicating strong ADP value relative to upside.

Davis Mattek repeatedly returns to Diggs as a draft target, stating 'the ADP makes no sense,' implying his current draft position undervalues his talent and production potential. Mattek lists Diggs among his top four fantasy picks this year alongside Michael Pittman Jr., Jordan Addison, Trey Ferguson, and Jaylen Waddle as elite fantasy options. While Mattek speculates Diggs may be holding out for a Rams offer (which would negatively impact his exposure to Terence Ferguson), he also notes Diggs to the Commanders feels pretty likely as a potential landing spot. Despite uncertainty around his destination, Mattek's repeated emphasis on Diggs' value at current ADP suggests he views the receiver as underpriced relative to his upside.

The source expresses high exposure to Diggs and views his ADP as illogical; notes that Diggs is ranked ahead of ADP on the Flock website and assumes every projection model has him ahead of his current draft position (ADP 136), questioning why he falls after Jaylen Coker given his projected production advantage despite zero risk concerns.

Davis Mattek is building a wide receiver-heavy draft strategy with Tee Higgins as a core component of his portfolio construction, indicating a preference for receiver volume and opportunity in his draft approach.

Terence Ferguson's fantasy value would be negatively impacted if Stefon Diggs joins the Rams, as Davis Mattek has significant exposure to Ferguson in his draft strategy and views a Diggs-to-Rams trade as detrimental to his portfolio.

Davis Mattek identifies Tory Horton as an interesting wide receiver option who avoided the PUP list and flashed with touchdowns last year. He faces competition from Rasheed Shahid for the same role, but Mattek views him as a fun flyer with upside.

Travis Hunter is described as really good for best-ball formats; however, his fantasy value depends on his role clarification. If he becomes a clear wide receiver, he would be awesome for managed leagues as well, suggesting his upside is contingent on offensive role definition.

If Tua starts all 17 games, Davis Mattek projects he will have a top-five advance rate, indicating elite fantasy performance tied to full-season availability. This is framed as a 'hot take' suggesting upside relative to current market expectations.

Hill is positioned in the source's top tier of wide receivers, grouped among the six premium picks alongside Chase, Puka, JSN, Jefferson, St. Brown, and Lamb; this tier represents the elite consensus at the position.

Davis Mattek expresses reluctance about taking Will Levis at his current ADP, stating 'I don't even like QJ' and suggesting quarterback is an uncomfortable position to draft at current pricing overall.