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0:16YouTube.com slash at Late-Round FF. Now let's get to these transactions.
0:20Add Emmanuel Wilson. Emmanuel Wilson is still out there in a little over half of Yahoo leagues.
0:26It's kind of a borderline call for this 15 transactions list.
0:30Usually I'm going after guys who are rostered in fewer than 20%, 30% of leagues.
0:35But given his week 4 performance, I figured that we should talk about him.
0:40Wilson ended Sunday's game against the Chargers with a 68% rush share and a 20% target share.
0:46He scored 27 PPR points. According to late round fantasy football's expected points model, he did outperform expectation by roughly 11.5 points.
0:54But the underlying usage was still encouraging overall for Wilson.
0:57Now, I wouldn't expect a 20% target share to hold week over week.
1:02Wilson's route share was actually only 31%, which was lower than George Helani's.
1:07But in the short term, I expect Wilson to see the most touches in this backfield.
1:12Jadarian Price is on IR, so we won't see him for a little bit.
1:17Zach Charbonnet is still coming off that ACL injury.
1:21And yeah, they did sign Joe Mixon, but I don't think Mixon is going to be heavily involved right away.
1:28The long term outlook here is definitely questionable. But the short term one, you might be able to get some more fantasy
1:35points out of Wilson before all these running backs come back, or before Joe Mixon really gets involved in this offense if he ever does.
1:44That's why Wilson is still worthy of an ad.
1:48Hold the New York Jets offense. Look guys, I'm with you.
1:51I started Kenyon Sadiq in a lot of leagues last week, and he gave me absolutely nothing, and it sucked.
1:59Anytime a performance like that happens, I always see people talk about what happened to this player this week.
2:05What did he do wrong? And I always say the first thing you should do is look at the team level first.
2:13If the team struggled overall, then it's not just the player.
2:17You don't have to feel as bad about that player.
2:20And let me tell you, when I went back and I watched that game, and when I looked at the data, that
2:28performance from the Jets offense was truly atrocious. The offense only ran 32 plays against the Bears.
2:34That was the second lowest mark from any team dating back to at least 2016.
2:40Over the first three weeks of the season, New York was averaging over 65 offensive plays per game.
2:46They ran 32 against the Bears. No one in an offense like that is going to thrive in fantasy football.
2:53Garrett Wilson didn't do anything. Kenyon Sadiq didn't do anything.
2:57And Braylon Allen didn't do anything. The Jets actually made an effort to get the ball in Sadiq's hands.
3:03He tied Garrett Wilson for the team lead with four targets.
3:07He had a 27% target share. Sadiq and Geno Smith, they just could not get on the same page throughout that game.
3:15But look, when play volume increases, if those rate stats remain, you're going to get more opportunities for your players.
3:22And eventually, you'll get more production. And I can guarantee you the New York Jets are not going to run 32 plays
3:30every week through the rest of the year. And the same could be said not just for Kenyon Sadiq, but also Garrett Wilson and Braylon Allen.
3:39Brees Hall missed week four with a quad injury.
3:42Allen didn't do a ton for fantasy, but he did handle every running back rush for the Jets on Sunday.
3:50He also had a 67% route share and a 13% target share.
3:54Across a normal game with 60 plays run, 65 plays run, those peripherals are going to give you way better fantasy production.
4:02We're going to see things shift and change for this offense when guys return from injury.
4:07But after this performance, I don't think you should go out there and start dropping players like Braylon Allen and Kenyon Sadiq.
4:15And I wouldn't be overly nervous about Garrett Wilson.
4:18Sometimes weird things happen in this game of football.
4:21Add Will Shipley. Saquon Barkley left week four's game after just playing four snaps.
4:26He has a hamstring injury. Tank Bigsby and Will Shipley, they handled that backfield from then on out.
4:33Kind of. Unfortunately, Bigsby was hurt towards the end of that game.
4:37Turns out it's a sports hernia injury. He's got to get surgery, so he's going on IR.
4:43So in week five, we could be down to just Will Shipley in this backfield.
4:48Now so far this season, he's played more of a pass catching role in that offense.
4:54That's what he was as a prospect too. But he's been mixed in a little bit with the early down stuff.
5:02Now if Saquon Barkley were to also miss time, Shipley wouldn't be the only active running back for the Eagles on game day.
5:10They would elevate someone from the practice squad. They would elevate multiple backs.
5:14Right now on Philadelphia's practice squad, you have Damian Pierce, Carson Steele, and Jaden Blue.
5:20There are definitely truthers out there for all three of those running backs.
5:24But to me, when you look at what Shipley brings to the table and what those guys bring to the table, you're
5:32probably not going to want like Jaden Blue with Will Shipley.
5:36More than likely, Damian Pierce would be the guy that I would go after for like a dollar on the waiver wire this week.
5:45Because his style of running pairs nicely with Will Shipley.
5:48We have no idea right now, but based on my own player evaluation, that's who I would pair with Will Shipley.
5:56So Shipley is definitely the guy that you want off the waiver wire this week.
6:01They don't have a great week 5 matchup, but he could be like a PPR scammer.
6:07The Eagles get Jacksonville. We saw this past week Chase Brown get a lot of work through the air against this Jags defense.
6:15But if you want to be sneaky about it, if you want a dollar play, you want to stash someone and see
6:22what happens, Damian Pierce would probably be that guy.
6:26Buy Parker Washington. It's actually been kind of a rough couple of weeks for Parker Washington after a really hot start to the season.
6:34In weeks 1 and 2, he was cruising. He posted target shares of 29% and 41%.
6:40He scored about 17 and 19 PPR points in those two games.
6:44In week 3, his target share was 18.5%, but he still had 13 PPR points.
6:49But then against Cincinnati on Sunday, he had just a 13% target share and he scored 2 PPR points.
6:56I'm still into Parker Washington though. He's still top 20 among wide receivers in route share this season, and he's above average
7:04in the percentage of routes run where 2 or fewer wide receivers are on the field.
7:10In that type of environment, wide receivers are going to be hyper-targeted and they'll be more efficient per route run.
7:17And despite his poor week 4 performance, our expected PPR points model still has Washington as a top 15 wide receiver.
7:24What's also really interesting here is something I talked about on the early season schedule analysis episode back in late July.
7:32I had mentioned that the Jags had a really tough schedule to open up the year for their passing attack.
7:39The Jags had faced the Browns, Broncos, Patriots, and Bengals to start the season.
7:44The Browns and Patriots, they're top 10 in pass defense success rates so far this year.
7:49The Bengals and Broncos, they at least have pieces in their secondary to stop opposing offenses.
7:55Jacksonville's schedule will eventually open up, especially as we get into the middle and latter parts of the season.
8:02From week 10 through the end of the fantasy season, the Jags get the Titans, Giants, Titans again, Bears, Steelers, Texans, Cowboys, and Commanders.
8:10According to our adjusted fantasy points allowed numbers through 4 games, none of those teams currently grade out as a bottom half matchup for opposing wide receivers.
8:20It's a really nice schedule when things matter most for fantasy football.
8:24Washington might not immediately crush it in fantasy football.
8:27If you trade for him this week, he might not just destroy defenses.
8:32He might not be like a 17-18 PPR point per game player.
8:36But there also might not be an opportunity like this moving forward where we can truly buy low.
8:43And look, maybe his managers, they're not flinching after a bad week 4 performance.
8:48But given the peripherals, given the schedule, I think it's absolutely worth finding out.
8:53Add Tyler Algier. So Jeremiah Love, after their week 4 loss against the Giants, he said this, quote, That quote seems pretty important to me.
9:01He had really encouraging week 3 usage. But he took a step back this past weekend.
9:07Love's snap share went from 63% in week 3 to 46% in week 4.
9:12His rush share, 78% to 54%. His route share, 36% in week 3, 21% in week 4.
9:18You get the idea. Tyler Algier is obviously the one benefiting.
9:22He ended up scoring 12.9 PPR points against the Giants.
9:26He continues to out-snap Love on third downs too.
9:29On the season, Algier has a 66% third down snap rate.
9:33Love, 32%. And this isn't just some fluky weird thing.
9:36Head coach Mike LaFleur, after their loss, said that Tyler Algier is their third down back and their hurry up back.
9:44Because of pass protection purposes. That doesn't necessarily mean that Algier is going to get a ton of looks in those scenarios.
9:51But it can help keep him on the field and play a role in this offense.
9:57He should be rostered in way more than 35% of Yahoo!
10:01Leagues. Not only could he just be usable standalone, but he's a great handcuff behind Jeremiah Love.
10:07Add Dante Myers and Mike Gasicki. This Dante Myers story is actually amazing.
10:12He's a 26-year-old rookie. He played college ball at Presbyterian College before transferring to Delta State.
10:17He then spent a couple of years in the CFL before finally finding his way on the Bengals.
10:24And all of a sudden, here in Week 5, he has a real chance to play a big role in this Cincinnati offense.
10:32Jamar Chase suffered a concussion against the Jaguars. And late in that game, T.
10:37Higgins hurt his groin. We have no idea how long either player is going to be out.
10:43But if they miss this weekend, Myers is definitely in play.
10:47He led the Bengals with a 93% route share in Week 4.
10:51He cut 7 of 9 targets for 82 yards.
10:54Cincinnati gets Miami this week. The Dolphins have just been an average opponent for wide receivers by adjusted fantasy points allowed.
11:02But they've surrendered the second highest yards per route run to the position.
11:06If Myers gets that additional work, he should be able to deliver pretty good numbers.
11:12And also, don't forget about Mike Gasicki. He was third in Cincinnati in route share this past week.
11:18And Miami has been an even better matchup for tight ends than they have wide receivers.
11:24We saw that just last week with T.J. Hawkinson.
11:27So you can give both of those Cincinnati Bengals a look off the waiver wire this week.
11:33Sell Ollie Gordon. Now look, admittedly, I wasn't that high on Ollie Gordon coming off the waiver wire in Week 4.
11:40I didn't want to spend a whole lot of my free agent budget on a Miami Dolphins running back.
11:47And so far, I've been wrong. Because in Week 4, Ollie Gordon scored 18 PPR points.
11:53But let's look at these peripherals. He had a 60% snap share, a 50% rush share, and a 45% route share.
12:00Those numbers are good, but they're not fantastic, especially in an offense like Miami's.
12:05Guys, the Dolphins have been so bad offensively this year.
12:09They've scored just 4 offensive touchdowns in 4 games.
12:12Only 6 teams since 2016 have gone through the first 4 weeks of the season with fewer scores.
12:18That means that these peripherals, this decent enough usage but not like elite usage, is being layered on top of a very, very bad offense.
12:27He's not going to see that many scoring opportunities.
12:30And yeah, like I said, he dropped an 18-burger in Week 4.
12:35And it was against a good Vikings defense. But our expected fantasy points model pegged Gordon for just 6.9 expected PPR points in that game.
12:44He really outpaced that number because he had a 53-yard run and then a 12-yard rushing touchdown.
12:50If this transaction burns me, so be it. And look, the Dolphins have a really nice schedule upcoming.
12:56Truly. In most cases, I would not be saying to sell this player.
13:01But I'm looking at social media right now, and I'm seeing people victory lapping the Ollie Gordon ad.
13:076.9 expected PPR points per game is not going to cut it.
13:11And this kind of snap share, this kind of rush share, this kind of route share, it's also not going to cut it in this kind of offense.
13:21Add Keon Coleman. DJ Moore has been pretty good when he's been healthy this year.
13:26He just hasn't been very healthy. Thanks to the shoulder injury that he re-aggravated in Week 4, he's now dropped out of two games early.
13:35And trust me, I'm in a league where the starting lineups are really shallow, and I have DJ Moore in that league.
13:43It has been absolutely brutal. So I feel your pain.
13:47If Moore finally misses time, then Keon Coleman becomes a really interesting ad.
13:51After Moore left Sunday's game against the Patriots, Coleman ended up seeing a target on 35% of his routes run.
13:58It's a small sample size, but that's a really good number.
14:02He finished the day against New England with five catches, 103 yards, and a touchdown.
14:08With Moore on the field this season, Coleman's averaged just 1.31 yards per route run, and he's seen a target on only 13.9% of his routes.
14:17When Moore's been off the field, those numbers jumped to 3.62 yards per route run, and 23.4% targets per route run.
14:24Those are insane numbers. And yes, small sample size.
14:27I get it. But we should really lean into that when we're just going to throw a couple bucks at a guy off the waiver wire.
14:37So if DJ Moore were to miss any time, Keon Coleman does become pretty interesting.
14:42Buy Matthew Stafford. It's not very typical for me to trade for quarterbacks in fantasy football, let alone pocket passers, let alone old pocket passers.
14:51But to me, the stars are really aligning for Matthew Stafford as a buy candidate.
14:56We knew regression was going to hit him this year.
15:00He had that great MVP season last year with a 7.7% touchdown rate.
15:04This year, his touchdown rate is 3.7%. He threw at least one touchdown pass in every single game last year.
15:11This year, he's failed to throw a touchdown in two of his four games played.
15:17Ironically, those two games were with Puka Nakua. We've gotten to the point though where Matthew Stafford is clearly playing below expectation in the touchdown column.
15:26It's not like the Rams offense has been bad.
15:29They had that rough opening weekend in Australia, but even still they're tied for 12th in offensive touchdowns, and they're tied for
15:377th if you remove that week 1 performance. They're 12th in EPA per play too.
15:42Things should turn around for this passing attack, or at the very least, the passing attack's numbers.
15:48The Rams get the Bills, Cardinals, Raiders, Chargers, Commanders, Cardinals again, and then the Packers over their next seven outings.
15:55Each of those teams ranks as a top half opponent for quarterbacks this year by adjusted fantasy points allowed.
16:02Now, things do get a little bit tougher in November and into December for this Rams passing attack and for Matthew Stafford.
16:10This isn't necessarily a rest of season bet, but if you've got a team that needs the win right now, Stafford's definitely
16:18one direction that I would go in. Add Keaton Mitchell.
16:21I talked about Keaton Mitchell on last week's episode, but a couple of things changed since then.
16:27Number one, his percent rostered number didn't really budge.
16:31Number two, the Chargers split their backfield up even more in a direction that favored Keaton Mitchell in week four.
16:38Mitchell led the Chargers backfield in snaps played this past week, and actually, Kamani Vidal, he played more snaps than Amari and Hampton did too.
16:47It's a three-headed monster now. That's not ideal for fantasy purposes.
16:50But Mitchell was seeing decently high-value looks in this offense.
16:54He had a 19.4% target share, and he led the backfield with 10 rush attempts.
16:59He had 12.4 expected PPR points, which placed him in RB2 territory in week four.
17:05The Chargers offense is an absolute dumpster fire. I did not expect it to be nearly this bad.
17:11Definitely an L. But you don't want to leave this kind of usage on the waiver wire.
17:17And we've seen historically the kind of big plays that Keaton Mitchell can make.
17:22He's still somehow available in 65% of Yahoo! Leagues.
17:25At least pick him up this week and throw him on your bench, please.
17:30Add Austin Eckler. Friend of the show, Austin Eckler, he joined the Commanders this past week, and then he got a little
17:38bit of run for them in week four. Now, Ja'Cory Krosky-Merritt, he led the way in that backfield.
17:44But four Washington running backs got into that mix.
17:48Each of them carried the ball at least twice.
17:51And that includes Austin Eckler, who had four rush attempts against the Colts.
17:55He played the second most snaps in that backfield behind Bill, and he ran the second most routes.
18:02And again, this was after being picked up just days before playing this game.
18:07Now, he only had four carries. But honestly, by the eye test, I thought Eckler looked really good.
18:13He was the only Commanders running back with a rush of 10 or more yards, and three of his four rush attempts were deemed an EPA success.
18:23He had a 75% success rate. The bigger thing here, though, is that Eckler was already getting run in this offense.
18:30He had barely been on the team. I know he was with them last year, but this is a new offensive system.
18:38David Blau is now offensive coordinator. If Rashad White continues to miss some time, it wouldn't surprise me if Austin Eckler's backfield
18:46share grows as he gets more comfortable with this offense.
18:49And with Jaden Daniels possibly returning as soon as this week, that's at least a little bit intriguing.
18:56Especially because running back is really, really tough across fantasy football right now.
19:00Sell Debo Samuel. The 49ers have arguably the best offense in football, so trading a piece away from that offense is obviously risky.
19:08Process-wise, though, if you can get a good return on Debo Samuel right now, probably not a bad idea.
19:15Samuel's given us outings of 15.4 and 18.0 PPR points over his last two games.
19:21And he leads all 49ers with a 70.5% route share over this two-game stretch.
19:25The problem, though, is that production has been wildly unsustainable.
19:29His week three performance included an 80-yard touchdown on a hook and ladder.
19:34In that game, he didn't see a single target.
19:37This past week, Samuel found the end zone again.
19:40But based on his usage, he played 6.2 PPR points per game above expected.
19:45That's according to our model. Over the last two weeks, Debo Samuel has scored 33.4 PPR points.
19:51Our expected fantasy points model says that he should have scored just 12.9.
19:56Samuel's been the biggest overachiever in expected fantasy points over the last two weeks.
20:01And it doesn't help that San Francisco's upcoming schedule isn't all that easy.
20:05At least according to our adjusted fantasy points allowed numbers.
20:09I don't think that Debo's all of a sudden going to become useless.
20:13He's running routes in an attractive offense. And because of that, he's probably going to outpace expectation to some degree.
20:20I just don't think it's going to happen to this degree.
20:24Add Tyreek Hill. Now look, to be honest, this transaction does not come with a lot of conviction.
20:31But this Kansas City wide receiver room has a lot of problems.
20:35Rasheed Rice left week four early with a hamstring injury.
20:39The thing is though, Kansas City has a bye this upcoming week.
20:43He may be able to play once that bye week's over.
20:47Taekwon Thornton, who had a 63% route share entering week four, he had a gruesome injury that no one should have to deal with.
20:55That injury was awful. So he's out of the picture right now.
21:00So that leaves the team with Xavier Worthy, who has a mediocre 1.12 yards per out run rate this year.
21:07Jalen Royals, who doesn't have a ton of experience.
21:10And Cyrus Allen, who has even less experience. Now Royals, interestingly, he had a Rasheed Rice comp in the ZAP model when he came out last year.
21:19And in his limited time this season, he's had similar deployment to Rasheed Rice.
21:24I think he'd be interesting if Rice missed any time.
21:28Meanwhile, Cyrus Allen, he had a lot of buzz during the summer.
21:32And his prospect profile kind of showed a vertical wide receiver who could play all over the formation.
21:39To me, he's more of the replacement for Taekwon Thornton.
21:42And obviously Taekwon Thornton, he's going to be out longer than Rasheed Rice.
21:47So I think between those two wide receivers, even though Jalen Royals probably has the higher floor, he's easier to project.
21:54I think Cyrus Allen has a little bit more upside.
21:58Just because of the unknown. You can throw a dollar at those guys if you want.
22:03That's fine. Or I guess you could go with Tyreek Hill.
22:07Rumors are swirling that Tyreek Hill is about to sign with the Chiefs.
22:12Now obviously, that would be cool. That would be fun.
22:15That would be dramatic. We've seen Tyreek Hill with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
22:20And it is very fun for fantasy football purposes.
22:24But obviously, we're not talking about a 32-year-old wide receiver who's coming off a devastating leg injury.
22:30Tyreek Hill was actually pretty good before that injury last year.
22:34But who knows what he's going to look like coming off of that injury.
22:39Especially because the number one asset to his game has been speed.
22:43I also don't know when Tyreek Hill is going to be able to play.
22:48A lot of reports say it's not going to happen until November.
22:52So if you add Tyreek Hill off the waiver wire this week, just know it may be sometime before he's usable, even if he is usable.
23:01But I don't want to count Tyreek Hill out.
23:04He's already been an outlier in the NFL. Maybe he can be an outlier again.
23:10And if he's healthy, the Chiefs could really use a player like Hill.
23:14Add Jacoby Brissett. If you need a quarterback streamer this week, I love Jacoby Brissett.
23:20The Cardinals get the Lions. They're at home. And as it stands today, that game has a 53.5 point total.
23:27We should see some scoring. Detroit ranks the third best matchup for quarterbacks this year by adjusted fantasy points allowed.
23:34The pass defense is fourth worst in EPA per dropback allowed.
23:38So overall, it's a good spot for Jacoby Brissett.
23:41Add the Cincinnati Bengals defense. The Bengals get the Dolphins this week.
23:45The game's in Miami, but Cincinnati is still a 7.5 point favorite.
23:49The Dolphins have allowed a top 10 pressure rate this year.
23:53It's a decent environment for sacks and turnovers for this Bengals team.
23:58And as we talked through earlier, this Dolphins offense is averaging just one offensive touchdown per game.
24:04So as a big favorite against one of the league's worst offenses, I think Cincinnati is at least a safe play this week as a streamer.
24:13That's it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening.
24:17If you yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are by searching for a pretty much anywhere podcast can be found.
24:27And you can follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at LateRoundQB.
24:31Thanks for listening everyone. I'll catch you tomorrow with the weekly 10 trends episode.
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