Late-Round Perspectives: Dave Richard

JJ Zachariason notes Aaron Jones is currently the featured back but expresses uncertainty about whether he will retain the role when Jordan Mason returns from injury.

Allen is preferred over Ollie Gordon and Jalen Wright on the waiver wire. He offers chunk weeks and immediate wins rather than spreading thin points across many games. Currently ranked as an RB2 this week in a decent matchup, Allen provides better value for fantasy managers seeking immediate production.

JJ Zachariason groups Breece Hall with Jordan Mason as a buy-low candidate, noting he's in a similar injury-discount situation but will likely cost more to acquire than Mason.

JJ Zachariason got off Brian Thomas completely in August after doing schedule analysis. Thomas faced good corner after good corner in his early schedule, and on top of that, he was not playing in heavy personnel, creating an even worse situation for him. Schedule analysis and personnel usage were tiebreakers that helped identify Thomas as a fade.

Brian Thomas Jr. is in the exact same boat as Marvin Harrison Jr.; he is running downfield and can draw coverage away, but JJ Zachariason sees no clear motivation for Jacksonville to trade him. Thomas is in year three of his rookie deal, giving Jacksonville no incentive to move him unless offered something substantial.

JJ Zachariason expresses doubt about Brian Thomas Jr.'s long-term ceiling in Jacksonville, stating he doesn't know if Thomas is ever going to amount to anything huge there; while Thomas has talent and overcame physical limitations last season, he is still working through those physical limitations this season.

Jacksonville's offense has evolved to a point where they are not reliant on BTJ from week to week; there will be weeks where they use him and try to get him the football, but the offense is no longer dependent on his production.

Against Cincinnati, a two high-scoring team matchup, BTJ may see increased involvement; however, if he draws DJ Turner in coverage or cloud coverage, it opens opportunities for Parker Washington and Kobe Myers instead. JJ Zachariason prefers those two receivers over BTJ for this specific week.

There have been multiple rumors about Jacksonville trading BTJ and moving on from him; JJ Zachariason notes there's been more smoke around BTJ trade speculation than around Marvin Harrison Jr., suggesting potential organizational uncertainty about his role.

JJ Zachariason notes health concerns around Bowers that made him prefer Cole McBride; Bowers had questions about his health status that McBride did not face, making McBride an easier roll in comparison.

Despite health concerns, JJ Zachariason acknowledged the gap in ADP for Bowers and could foresee a monster season from him, which was part of his reasoning for not being as heavy into McBride; however, given how things have gone, he now accepts the case for McBride over Bowers rest of season.

Bowers had health questions and injury concerns that made him a less attractive option than Trey McBride for the rest of the season, contributing to McBride being the safer and more reliable tight end choice.

Douglas is a receiving option in the Dolphins' quick-game attack under Malik Willis, ranking second or third in target priority behind Malik Washington and competing with Greg Dulcich for intermediate receiving work.

Williams has a tendency to hold the ball and run rather than get it out quickly, which is part of his DNA from his entire football life. While he was injured and may become more efficient, he's unlikely to dramatically change his play style to consistently get the ball out in 2.5 seconds instead of 3.5 seconds—it's a big mental shift. Coaches want him to be who he is (Superman-type player), and Ben Johnson will lean into that, but Williams needs to be more efficient and accurate for the Bears' receivers to produce consistently.

JJ Zachariason identifies Chase Brown as a buy-low candidate; notes that owners are likely unhappy with his return so far this season, creating a discount opportunity for acquiring him in trades.

Richard and sources indicated preseason that the Bears offense would revolve around Colston Loveland, leading to him being drafted in the top 40 picks. However, the offense has not played out that way. Loveland has been miscast in his role; Kalief Raymond has emerged as the primary target instead. Richard notes that people victory-lapping Loveland's fade are sticking with preseason priors rather than dealing with the reality of his limited role.

Loveland is one of the Bears' receivers with elite talent or scheme fit, but he's not expected to see the same volume as Raymond and Burden in the quick-hitting Ben Johnson offense. The Bears have an 'embarrassment of riches' at receiver, and defenses will pick their poison; Loveland and A.D. Dunze are likely to see lesser coverage as defenses focus on Raymond and Burden.

Richard had Drake Maye ranked as his number three quarterback preseason and drafted him in round six or seven in expert leagues as a value pick. After Maye was terrible in week one and AJ Brown went down, Richard threw out all preseason priors and went into panic mode, acquiring a different starting quarterback before week two in every league with Maye. Maye is now benched or on waivers.

Dulcich is the second or third option in the Dolphins' quick-game passing attack when Malik Willis is distributing. He's behind Malik Washington in target priority but ahead of or tied with Caleb Douglas for secondary receiving work.

JJ Zachariason expresses concern about JK Dobbins' early-season performance, noting he has not looked effective and frequently attempts to cut outside without success; cites this as a key worry about his current fantasy outlook.

JJ Zachariason views James Connor as a potential late-round value play if he can return from injury; notes he's on the last year of his Cardinals deal and suggests the team's weak running game could create opportunity for him once healthy. Caveat: uncertain if he'll return to prior form, but projects better than current Cardinals backfield alternatives.

Hunter is intriguing as a potential Dolphins back to monitor once Gordon and Wright underperform. The Dolphins acquired him, and Sean McVay's draft picks typically warrant a second look. JJ Zachariason's prospect model liked Hunter coming out of college. Once Gordon and Wright 'poop out,' Hunter could get a chance, though he'll likely produce around 7 PPR points per game given the Dolphins' offensive limitations.

Wright is exciting but historically follows a pattern where the starter returns and he loses opportunity. Even if that doesn't happen, the Dolphins' offensive coaching staff is not creative enough to turn Wright into a Devonte Henry-level producer, especially if he's mixing carries with Ollie Gordon. The Dolphins' weak offense and limited red-zone work (inside the five twice in three games) limit his ceiling.

The Arizona offense is evolving and the Cardinals have realized what they have in Jeremiah Love; he is expected to carry the team's offense against the Giants this week, suggesting an increased role and usage going forward.

JJ Zachariason recommends Jordan Mason as a buy-low candidate if you can wait out his injury; expects him to be discounted by current owners who cannot use him, and projects he will retain value when he returns despite Aaron Jones' current role.

JJ Zachariason makes a bold projection that Josh Downs will be a top-15 wide receiver this week and doubles down with an even bolder long-term take: that Downs will be the number-one receiver in fantasy for the next four years.

JJ Zachariason recommends dropping Justin Herbert in 12-team leagues. After reviewing week three film against Buffalo, Herbert demonstrates poor coverage recognition, throwing easily intercepted deep balls; his fourth-quarter interception reflects inability to read coverage. Herbert is also staring down another season without adequate offensive line protection and a new offensive coordinator, which may be affecting his decision-making and causing him to try too much.

Raymond is at worst a number three receiver in the Bears offense; he's been picked up in all of JJ Zachariason's leagues and is fine to start given the Bears' offensive strength and Ben Johnson's play-calling genius. With Case Keenum getting the ball out quickly, Raymond's low air-yards-of-target and speed profile make him a candidate for short targets similar to Luther Burden's role.

Richard calls Kalief Raymond a year-10 breakout. Raymond is running on 70% of Bears drop backs with a 26% target-per-route-run rate and catching over 90% of his targets. Richard attributes Raymond's emergence to his long tenure in Ben Johnson's system, his route-running ability, and his speed. Raymond is at worst a number three receiver and has been picked up in all of Richard's leagues. The preseason narrative around Colston Loveland and Luther Burden being the primary targets was a miscast of their roles.

Raymond's early-season production (15 PPR points per game through three weeks) draws a comp to Russell Gauge in 2020 (Falcons with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst), who was drafted late but had early-round teammates and maintained 9–11 PPR points per game as a WR3–5 despite not sustaining his hot start. Raymond likely won't maintain 15 PPR per game but has a realistic path to top-50 WR finish and WR3–4 range if production moderates.

JJ Zachariason is actively trying to acquire Keaton Mitchell on multiple fantasy teams because he believes the Chargers can use him more effectively. Mitchell is undersized but offers explosive play-making ability that the Chargers need; however, his size presents injury risk (could miss a couple weeks with one big hit). Zachariason still loves him and sees him as a better option than Hampton for the Chargers' run game.

JJ Zachariason identifies Keaton Mitchell as a late-round target with upside; positioned as a player who could emerge if given opportunity, part of a group of undervalued running backs worth targeting in late rounds.

JJ Zachariason identifies Kendra Miller as a short-term running back option in New Orleans; suggests limited long-term fantasy value but potential for immediate opportunity.

Burden was the top target-getter for the Bears last year and remains a key beneficiary of Ben Johnson's play-calling in week three, where he and Raymond were the two receivers who 'ate' in the game. Burden's profile includes excellent after-the-catch ability and ball security; he's a dog with the ball in his hands and fits Johnson's scheme of getting receivers open on crossers and in space.

Richard and sources indicated preseason that Luther Burden would be a primary target in the Bears offense, leading to him being drafted around the top 50-60 picks. However, the offense has not played out that way. Burden was miscast in his role. Richard notes that when Case Keenum played (quick-release quarterback), Burden was the top target getter with the most designed plays, but Kalief Raymond has now taken over as the primary target. The preseason narrative was incorrect.

Washington is the primary short-area target for the Dolphins when Malik Willis is getting the ball out fast. He's the first option in quick-game situations, ahead of Greg Dulcich and Caleb Douglas, making him the most viable receiving option in Miami's offense.

Harrison needs to get traded to reach his potential; the Cardinals have no motivation to trade him, but his current role in Arizona is not utilizing his strengths. He was 15 pounds lighter coming out of Ohio State and is better suited for an offense that will deploy him more effectively. Currently, he's drawing double teams and clearing space for other receivers rather than being the focal point.

Harrison is functioning as a sacrificial X receiver in Arizona's offense, receiving only deep 18-yard average depth of target throws with inconsistent volume; JJ Zachariason dropped him for Kalief Raymond and considers him droppable given the Cardinals' lack of motivation to trade him and his limited role in the evolving offense.

Despite droppable status, Harrison has a favorable matchup against the Giants this week; JJ Zachariason would not be shocked by a top-30 performance, though it would likely require more than his typical four targets or a touchdown.

JJ Zachariason projects Marvin Harrison Jr. as a top-30 wide receiver for the upcoming week, reflecting confidence in his matchup and role despite not having him ranked in his top tier overall.

JJ Zachariason notes there has been less trade speculation and organizational uncertainty around Marvin Harrison Jr. compared to Brian Thomas Jr., suggesting more stability in his role with the Commanders.

Richard notes that Michael Wilson had a nasty schedule outlook like everyone in Arizona, but even with that bad schedule, analysts could have reasoned that the offense would throw a lot more. Wilson is better suited for the floor's offense than Brian Thomas is for the Jaguars offense, making him a better value comparison despite the schedule concerns.

Gordon is averaging less than three yards per carry and is not a viable fantasy option. JJ Zachariason has a hard time believing either Gordon or Jalen Wright will be as productive as Devonte Henry, who didn't score 13 PPR points in any game this year. The Dolphins have played only 26 snaps where they're not down by seven or more points, and they've been inside the five-yard line twice, which disqualifies Gordon from meaningful opportunity.

Against Cincinnati, if BTJ draws DJ Turner in coverage or cloud coverage, it opens opportunities in man coverage for Parker Washington. JJ Zachariason explicitly prefers Parker Washington over BTJ for this week's matchup.

Quentin Johnson is making mistakes in the Chargers offense and is not reliable; JJ Zachariason notes defenses are targeting less reliable receivers because Vlad McConkie draws double coverage, and Johnson is part of the unreliable receiver group Herbert is forced to target.

Quentin Johnston had a rough start to the 2024 season. Last year he started hot but finished with approximately 12 PPR points per game, which matches his 2024 finish, suggesting consistency at a mid-tier level but disappointing given his draft capital and early-season expectations.

JJ Zachariason suggests Quinshon Judkins can be acquired at a discount heading into Week 4, but cautions against paying his draft-day value; notes his last two games produced 9.8 and 9.9 PPR points respectively, which is bench-level production. Recommends waiting for a deeper discount or seeing if he improves before committing significant trade capital.

JJ Zachariason highlights RJ Harvey as a short-term running back option in Denver with solid recent performance; notes he has a favorable matchup as a pass-catching back this week and projects him as a potential RB2 or RB3 given the depth at the position this season.

JJ Zachariason identifies Saquon Barkley as a buy-low candidate; notes that owners are likely unhappy with his return so far this season, creating a discount opportunity for acquiring him in trades.

Hunter is barely playing offense this season; JJ Zachariason notes this reduces the number of receiving options for Trevor Lawrence, implying limited offensive role and fantasy relevance.

Trey Harris is making mistakes in the Chargers offense, contributing to Justin Herbert's struggles and reduced passing efficiency.

McBride has shown significantly improved per-target efficiency compared to last season; he ran 100+ more routes than any other tight end since 2016 last year, establishing him as Arizona's best offensive option and a matchup problem in the middle of the field with easy check-down access.

McBride is preferred over Brock Bowers for the rest of the season due to superior health status; Bowers had injury questions that made McBride the easier and safer roll, and McBride's role as a matchup problem and bull in the middle of the field provides more consistent fantasy value.