0:00Buy or sell these bad quarterback receivers at cost. I've got five names for you.
0:08>> Look at the release.
0:09>> There's your separation.
0:11>> Stutter and go. Gets by clean.
0:12>> That is unbelievable.
0:13>> May be the greatest catch I've ever seen.
0:18>> What is cracking everybody? James Co.
0:20Matt Harmon here with you. The reception perception the show. The boys are back in your lives. We're talking about DraftKings baseball. All right. Today,
0:28Matt, I've got a really interesting topic for you. Um, quarterback proof.
0:32It's such an interesting phrase. I think Justin Jefferson even proved that no one is quarterback proof. But I am talking about some truly interesting and dare
0:43say good wide receivers in a lot of different situations here, but they're playing with some of the worst quarterbacks that you can find in the
0:51NFL. So, buy or sell these bad quarterback receivers at cost. I've got five names for you. I want to start in
1:01New York. Gino Smith is the quarterback for the Jets. He was good three years ago, but that was three years ago. I
1:09don't think he last year.
1:10>> Two years ago. Could we say two?
1:12>> Okay, sure. Two I'll give you two years.
1:15Pretty good.
1:15>> Yeah, fine. Okay.
1:16>> He's fine.
1:17>> Okay.
1:18>> He was f He was fine. I think three years ago he was legitimately good actually though. Um okay but uh but last
1:24year I don't think he showed a lot. Uh and I don't I don't imagine somebody a quarterback in their mid-30s uh is going to get improve especially
1:32when you go work with Frank Reich in New York. Okay. So Garrett Wilson DraftKings ADP of 37.2. He's going in the early
1:41fourth round right now. He started his career with three straight 1,000 seasons uh 10,000 yard seasons. actually had,00 yards in two of those three seasons. But
1:53last year, seven games, 395 yards later, and my guy Garrett Wilson had the worst year of his career by far. Buy or sell,
2:01Garrett Wilson at cost. I mean, Garrett Wilson statistically, yeah, he didn't have a good year from a bottom line perspective, but this was a guy who was
2:08had like a 34% target share before he got hurt. He was just behind Jackson Smith and Jigba before he suffered that
2:15injury against the Denver Broncos from a target share perspective. And this is the thing with Garrett Wilson, you know, by hook or by crook, this guy's going to
2:22get the football. And the reason he gets the football, man, is because he is always open. All right? I mean, 93rd
2:29percentile success rate verse man coverage last year. 88th against press, 81% against zone coverage. Um, separates all over the field. a little bit lower
2:39on the nine routes last year, but they also didn't use him on the nine routes.
2:42Like other than God, this was so annoying because like the role for Garrett Wilson was so good last year.
2:50That's why he was able to have the really solid usage, get the targets that he needed even though he's playing with
2:57freaking Justin Fields and my guy Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. All right, because they had him with a pretty balanced route tree, heavy diet on the
3:04breaking routes, outs and digs.
3:07What's it going to look like with Frank Reich this year? That's obviously a question mark. Although, um, I will note that Garrett Wilson's slot rate got back
3:14up over 30%. Which hadn't happened since his rookie year. That's a key variable.
3:20And he took 50.4% of his sample snaps off the line of scrimmage. First time in his NFL career that he lined up more
3:27offball than on ball last year. That is one thing that I think will continue even if I you I'm dubious of the Frank
3:33Reich offense because AD Mitchell is there and AD Mitchell James you and I have joked about this for almost every receiver. I'm like what would he look
3:40like as a Z moving around the formation?
3:41What would he look like as a slide?
3:42Could we get this big slide? Like no no 80 Mitchell just play X and that's it.
3:47And so far in the preseason I feel like that's what we've been seeing. That's what we saw for Eddie Mitchell when he
3:51got with this team last year. So, I think because he's there, I can trust Garrett Wilson to be the guy that is
3:56going to be the offball Z receiver, move around the formation, and like I mean, these success rates on the short routes
4:00are good, which I think will really help >> making him quarterback proof. And and James, like, is Gino Smith, even this
4:06version of Gino Smith, the best quarterback Gary Wilson has played with his NFL career.
4:11>> Zack Wilson, Justin Fields, uh, >> what's left of Aaron Rodgers? I don't know. [laughter] And they didn't >> None of it was good.
4:20>> None of it was good, man. So yeah, I mean I don't know if that answers the question. Is he quarterback proof? But I
4:29mean he's been he has been quarterback proofish so far because he's been a productive player even with these horrendous situations. So
4:38>> dude, yards 1100 yards in two of his four seasons in two of the three seasons where he wasn't hurt. That's bro that's
4:45about as quarterback proof as you're going to get, man. That is really impressive. Honestly, incredibly impressive. Um, okay. We go to Atlanta
4:52where Drake London, his DKDP is is actually quite a bit higher, 15 spots higher than Garrett Wilson, 22 and a
5:00half for U. Drake London. He's a late second round grade right now on DraftKings. He had a huge 2024 with,200
5:10plus yards, but man, failed to record a,000 yards in three of his first four seasons. I will pose to you this Drake
5:20London at current ADP. Buy or sell?
5:24>> Man, Drake London was having such an awesome season last year before he got hurt. Um, he was averaging 10.4 targets
5:33per game in the first 11 weeks of the season. He was only behind Jamar Chase even in half PPR, which DraftKings is
5:40obviously full PPR, which leans into Drake London's game more. He was the wide receiver three in per game scoring.
5:47Like he was being targeted on 28.8% of his routes, fourth highest rate uh over the last two seasons since he entered
5:54the league. He's eighth in targets per route run. Like this guy gets the freaking football when he is on the field and even last year. Like he was on
6:03way to having that season, you know, the monster production season. Um, and I so I say all that to say like, man, are we
6:12rooting for Michael Penn [laughter] to be the starting quarterback or what, dog? Because >> two, >> bro, bro, it's so bad.
6:21>> The vibes are so bad. I don't want to just react to like one camp video because I think that's, you know, kind
6:27of silly. Um, but that video of him against the Colts when he's just like dancing around in the pocket and then
6:33just throws it right to the guy, it looks about as bad as you could possibly look. Um, so yeah, I think when you I
6:40think the thing to remember about Drake London is one obviously he's an incredible football player, but look at like his profile last year, who it
6:47compares to. I mean, of course, his success rates are great. Like 76% almost success rate versus manals, 84 against zone, 79 against press. like baller
6:54baller receiver easy top 10 wide out in the NFL 100%. But like these guys that he compares to I think really helps kind
7:01of illustrate the point of like what his usage is. There's three Keenan Allen seasons in here and like really good Keenan Allen seasons. CD Lamb is the top
7:10comp. And that like Z slot usage is really critical for Drake London and kind of the best way to show like who he
7:19is as a player. That would be my one little worry here almost even beyond the quarterback situation, James. And so far, I have asked around about this.
7:29>> I I have I've I've not seen any reporting from Falcons, beat Writers, or anything. Is Drake London going to get
7:35stuck at X receiver this year because >> I think >> I mean, think of the other guys on the roster. It's like, you know, J my guy
7:41Jan Dodson. Um, probably not. Definitely not an X receiver. Z slot. Uh, Zakias, Zlot, Zachariah Branch, Zlot, gadget receiver, you know, it's there's not
7:52>> there's nobody else. There's nobody else.
7:54>> And Kevin Stfansky and Tommy Reese did some weird stuff last year where they moved Jerry Judy to X and Cedric Tilman
7:59to Z. I I didn't like that. That didn't make a lot of sense to me. Um, so that worries me in addition to obviously the
8:05quarterback situation. That being said, I think um one thing that does make me feel at least a little bit better um is
8:13that we saw that monster production with Michael Penn last season and so much of that came on outbreaking routes. That's something that these guys have been
8:24really good at. You look at the success rate for Drake London. Good usage and success rate on out routes almost 90%
8:30like 89.2%.
8:31He can win all over the field these big breaking routes. But I I really am a little worried about the role change in
8:37any sort of games with Tua. Um we're we're not [laughter] we're not going to see a lot of targets on these routes.
8:43Okay. If it's Tua Tongoa. So um yeah, definitely the the previous role that he's had James in 20 uh 2023 and 2024,
8:51excuse me, 2024 and 2025, those are definitely quarterback proof roles and we've seen that >> um because of the layup usage in
8:59addition to the fact that he's a baller that can win down the football field.
9:02Um, but that that has me nervous about the role. Um, and sort of the tuiness of it all. That has me nervous,
9:08>> man. Even if Michael Penn comes back earlier than anticipated. Uh, it's a little bit of oil and water when we're
9:14talking about scheme with Stfansky and Michael Pennock skill set, you know, like we're talking about purely shotgun guy in Michael Penn working with an
9:23offensive dude who again I really like Stfansky, right? Like if you like what Shanahan does, if you like what you know
9:31Shawn McVey does, Stfansky is of that mold, right? Like he's from the the Vikings building working directly under Gary Kubiaak. Like if we like that
9:41scheme, okay, cool. We can like the scheme, but we might not like the quarterback, right? And the quarterback is is Michael Pennix coming off of a
9:49major knee injury. What's his mobility from under center? That's just [sighs] >> I worry for Drake London.
9:57>> I'll just say that. Um and I really really really like the player. I just can never find myself drafting this guy
10:05just because he's going early and man the situation surrounding him is all kinds of bad.
10:12>> Couple alternatives if you want to break ties in favor of not drafting Drake London. Um Nico Collins goes 24.7 overall on DraftKings. Uh, I have him
10:21ranked ahead of Drake London. I would just take Nico over Drake. Um, better quarterback situation. Don't care what you saw from CJ's in the playoffs.
10:30Better quarterback situation. Uh, equal, if not better wide receiver talent, uh, and a situation where he's just going to get a ton of targets, efficient targets.
10:38He's been one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL the last three seasons. Um, George Pickkins goes right after Drake London. If you want to break
10:45ties in favor of saying like just >> I'd rather be attached to the Dallas Cowboys offense and Atlanta Falcons offense, I get it. Totally.
10:52>> That one's been a tough ranking for me.
10:54And then Chris Olive goes wide receiver 10, Drake London wide receiver eight.
10:58Really? What's the difference between I think Drake London and Chris Ave are super comparable from a talent perspective. Um Chris Olive also plays
11:06and we're wor maybe it's just like a small nat in the back of my head about Drake London's role in deployment. But
11:11um Chris Olive, I know his role is going to rock because I just watched it last year in this offense.
11:15>> And I have got a lot more faith in his connection with Tyler Shuck than I do with London. So um it's been tough for
11:22me to drop Drake London from my eighth receiver spot, which is where he goes on DraftKings. But um from a tier
11:29perspective, I got him in the same tier as those guys. And if you want to click like I'd take Nico over him, but if you
11:33want to click Pickkins or Olive, um like we don't even need to worry about quarterback proof with Pickkins. And I definitely think quarterback proof role
11:41Chris Olave has got one too.
11:43>> Yeah, for sure. Okay, KCC KC Conception is in Cleveland and they have arguably the worst quarterback situation uh in the NFL right now. [laughter]
11:53Some people, yourself included, Matt, you love yourself some KCC, man. DK ADP right now is about 110. He's going in
12:03the early 10th round. Talk to me about KC Conpsion. you think he can overcome again what I just described as potentially the worst quarterback
12:12situation in the NFL?
12:15>> Yes, because I one I think he's freaking awesome. You know, this is my guy obviously. Casey Conpsion from a reception perception standpoint was one
12:25of the best if not the best separator in the draft class. 92nd percentile success rate verse man, 87th against press, 81st
12:32against zone. You see the almost full green route tree here. this guy wins all over the football field. However, the thing that's really good about him for
12:40this particular format. Um, you know, if we're talking about we're scamming some touches here, >> you know, which is what's going to have
12:47to happen. Guys really good with the football in his hands on the quick hitters. You know, slants, screens, obviously we're going to see a lot of
12:53that. He obviously wins on those routes.
12:55I mean, everybody wins on screens. It's fine, but like slants gets into those pretty quickly. Put the football in his hands. Like Deshawn can do that even if
13:02he can't do much. Shur definitely I think can do that. So it's going to be a little bit of a PPR scam for Z Flowers
13:10but or excuse me for slip case concepts own. But that's kind of what we saw with Zay Flowers in his rookie year man. It
13:16was like a little bit of a scammy receiver production but you know I was sitting there in the rookie report that
13:21year on our show being like no no no this guy runs real deal routes.
13:24He gets like BS Mickey Mouse usage but watch him run like deep outs and stuff like that. I think that's going to be the same thing for um KCC.
13:32But I mean, regardless, the ADP is so good on him. I'm way ahead of this ADP.
13:36I have him at wide receiver 41. He goes off the board wide receiver 49 because it's just to me, bet on talent, bet on
13:42explosive playability.
13:45Cookie, you know, kind of ice icing on the cake here that you don't got to pick the weeks for KCC because we're doing
13:50best. Uh, I would take him ahead of some of the guys like, you know, Quinton Johnson who we talked about in a
13:55previous video. Uh, yeah, give me KCC as a really good pick there. Like I think he I think he will have a quarterback
14:03proof role this year and he's going to need it with that quarterback situation in Cleveland.
14:07>> In Tennessee, Carnell Tate is working with Cam Ward. His DK80P Carnell Tate is 67.6.
14:16He has a mid6thround grade. And you know what's funny? Despite the fact that Cam Ward is throwing up all over his shoes,
14:23Carnell Tate is actually moving up draft boards for some reason or another.
14:28>> I know. I don't get it. I don't understand. People love rookie wide receivers though. Um, they love rookies in general, but they love this rookie in
14:36particular. I feel as if there is some serious Ohio State steam coming up and gassing up Carnell Tate because everything else about it, I don't
14:46understand. I know our quarterback charter, Alfredo Brown, um, has said there's a lot of really interesting and good things about Cam Ward's uh,
14:56charting profile from from last year.
14:58But dude, I I am sorry, man, but like the preseason has been about as bad as it gets uh for Cam Ward. Where do you
15:06sit on Carnell Tate in Tennessee?
15:11>> Oh boy, I'm worried. [laughter] I'm worried about Carnell Tate in Kansas, excuse me, for Tennessee there with Cam Ward and all that. And some of it is
15:20because of Carnell Tate, but not not not a lot of it. I couldn't really care about how he's, you know, not caught any
15:27passes in the preseason, whatever. To me, it's got a lot to do with his role mixed with the Cam Ward stuff. I mean, I
15:33think you can still be I'm still open to Cam Ward having a good second season, but I mean, when you look at Carnell
15:39Tate and who he is as a player, he's a vertical outside receiver. You know, look at the route tree from Ohio State
15:45where like there's none of this stuff here underneath. It's all the downfield stuff that he's running. And by the way, he's really good at that stuff, running
15:55these downfield routes. He was really good against press man coverage. 89th percentile success rate versus man, 75th against press, which is why he's been an
16:02outside receiver for this team in the preseason. And we just I I think it's been nice to see that he hasn't been
16:08stuck at X. Like kind of looks like they're going to sacrifice Calvin Ridley, who nobody talks about and like nobody wants to draft, but kind of
16:15sounds like they're going to they're going to sacrifice Calvin Ridley and like Elliio Manor as the ex receivers.
16:20and they are at least moving Carnell Tate around. He was kind of a Z receiver, a little bit ZX split, hybrid,
16:26depending what they wanted to do with Jeremiah Smith at Ohio State. So, there is that. But, um, man, the thing that to
16:33me that is more concerning for Carnell Tate, is less about him and more about this young man right here, Wale Robinson. Like, you're telling me that
16:43we just watched Wandelle do all these routes that we just were not highlighting that Carninal Tate did not run as a prospect. Um, and he's got
16:51all these designer touches. And by the way, he was pretty good on those last year. 40th percentile success rate vers uh zone, 44th against man coverage.
16:59Likeale doesn't totally stink. And he runs some breaking routes down the football field, too, which I thought was interesting to see from him last year.
17:07But Brian Dal knows this guy and like it's a quarterback who's going to be playing in chaos behind a bad offensive
17:11line. Like Wandell Robinson is absolutely going to scam some receptions. He might lead this team in catches this year, which to me
17:20I just look at that ADP like you said Carnell Tate I mean he goes right ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. There's
17:27>> literally no difference between the two from a role perspective vertical boundary players >> but one of them plays on an offense
17:33coached by Liam Cohen who I would take over Brian Dal you know 11 times out of 10 and we've seen Brian Thomas be really
17:40good in the NFL before. Uh so if you're just looking for that like vertical big play X I would take Brian Thomas Jr.
17:46ahead of him. Um, I can't get too too crazy low on Carnotate because he is a good player and like rookies and all
17:51that, but yeah, I don't think his role is set up to be very quarterback proof, which makes me nervous where he's going
17:56right now.
17:57>> All right, there you go. Um, I I'm with you, man. I am just nervous about the Tennessee offense in general. I I don't
18:03see a lot like I know they made a lot of moves like Juan Dale and Carnell Tate and stuff, man, but overall I I'm
18:11worried about their offense, dude. I I I don't know how good they're going to be.
18:14I think there might be a bottom 10 unit uh in the NFL. Um, okay. In Las Vegas, Trey Tucker is somebody that you have
18:21highlighted in a previous uh DraftKings basketball video. Right now, he's got a DK where he's going really late, man.
18:28His ADP is 157.5. He's got a 14th round grade, and he has actually moved down nearly 12 spots since game open. So,
18:38he's moved down one full round. Has Trey Tucker. He's coming off of a season where he has 57 receptions and 696
18:46yards. Um, if Trey Trey Tucker abs his game screams spike week, dude. But talk to me about Trey Tucker. He's got
18:55potentially Kirk Cousins who looks I mean he looks triple washed. I mean, this guy is prepackaged lettuce is is Kurt Cousins, but I Okay, he'll he'll
19:06get the start for a bit. Fernando Mendoza, the rookie is anticipated again in there. But again, I would just say overall, while I like some things about
19:14Mendoza, I think we can all sit here and be honest and say Las Vegas's quarterback room, again, most likely bottom five, certainly bottom 10 in the
19:23NFL.
19:25>> Yeah, I don't know if I've talked about Trey Tucker. I know we talked about Jaylen Naylor in one of these basketball
19:30videos at one point. I obviously have talked a lot about Jack B. We just talked about Trey Tucker though on an
19:34episode of Reception Perception, the show. But I have definitely settled on the fact that Trey Tucker, if you're drafting a Raiders receiver, especially
19:41in baseball, this should be the guy that gets taken first among the Raiders receivers. Um, which I believe he does.
19:49But still, wide receiver 63, very valuable uh ADP there for me because like Trey Tucker is not just some BS player. I mean, he's actually got some
20:01skills here to his game.
20:04um ran a very balanced route tree last year as you're seeing here. You know, just some slants and stuff like that.
20:10Cool. Like a lot of yellow routes, right, which are just he ran those at an average rate. So, it feels pretty
20:16balanced. I don't think that route tree is going to feel very balanced this year. I think it's going to be indexed
20:21on these three bad boys right here. The nines, the posts, the digs. This is what this offense wants. They want to push it
20:28over the middle of the field on play action concepts. And this guy can do that, bro. like he burns. Uh my
20:34colleague Nate Ty at Yahoo had a stat, this is I think even heading into last season, that from like a miles per hour
20:40perspective, how often he hits top speed, he might be the fastest player in the NFL. And you know what, the film
20:45backs it up with those vertical route success rates. Like he actually does separate down the field, man. He is a he's just so fast and really decisive on
20:54these post and digs. When he plants that foot, he rips it inside and separates, particularly against zone coverage. 44th percentile. We can work with that as a
21:03starting receiver. Almost 62% routes against zone. We know the league plays more zone coverage right now overall.
21:09Sounds like Tucker is the guy that's emerged as the, you know, guy that's going to play the most snaps, which he
21:14did that last year, dude. Trey Tucker, what do you He had just 696 yards, not very much. 896 snaps. That was the ninth
21:21most of the wide receiver position last year because he just played the most of this team. I think he's played the most
21:25again. Like last preseason game, all the other Raiders receivers played. He rested with the starters. I think it's because he fits these big breaking
21:34downfield routes that this offense wants to hit off play action. So yeah, spike weak player, dude. Trey Tucker, give me that every time in baseball in the 60s.
21:44Uh I love where Trey Tucker is going right now. So you know, QB proof. I mean, he he ain't that kind of player,
21:51right? We're not talking about like No, the answer is not QB proof, but good value in baseball drafts that fits the
21:58offense. Definitely. I think so.
22:00>> The number that surprises me when I look at that route chart, 76.9% success rate on the dig. And when we think about
22:06Clint Kubak coming through and, you know, again, his, you know, his lineage and all that stuff, like again, when you think about Shanahan, McVey, Kubiaak,
22:14again, they're all a very similar, you know, style of offense. And those those offenses win and you got to win on these
22:22digs. You know, when cover two is your meta, you know, there's there's certain ways to attack. And for me, I think the
22:29dig route is one of those ways you can attack the cover two. Um, and it tra that number, man, I'm telling you, that
22:35number really surprised the hell out of me, Matt. I'm not going to lie to you, man. 76.9% success rate on the dig. That is an
22:42extremely useful player, especially in today's defensive meta, playing for a guy in Clint Kubak, who I think will know how to draw up those plays as well.
22:52I I was not a Trey Tucker guy. As a matter of fact, I told a um I told Ted Wyn, who covers the Raiders and has been
23:01covering the Raiders for a really long time. I told Ted Wyn uh at this time last year, I said, "Ted, come on, man.
23:08Trey Tucker's not a real wide receiver, bro. He is not an NFL level wide receiver." And I was wrong. [laughter] Sorry, Ted. Ted was arguing. He's like,
23:18"Come on." He's like, he looked at me like this. He's like, "Really?" And I was like I was like, "Dude, you see him
23:24every day, man. You tell me what's going on." He's like, "No, this guy can play a little bit." I was like, "Oh, okay." I
23:28disagreed, but I was like, "All right."
23:30>> He's like 5'9, 188 pounds. He's he's small, but he's mighty, you know, or at least he's fast. At least he can get
23:36open. He's fast and explosive and wins against zone coverage. But yeah, obviously an incomplete player. I I highlighted the zone success rates. You
23:43know, 19th percentile success rate for man, 20th against press. We're not talking about some secret superstar here, but um a useful player for a team
23:51that needs some speed. Um and like they're going to want him on the field to open things up for the run game for
23:55Brock Bower. So going to be on the field a lot, going to rip it downfield. I think that's good enough at wide
23:59receiver 63 in basketball.
24:01>> Yes. I By the way, I misspoke. I said he had moved down. He's moved up. He has moved up nearly 12 spots. So he's moved
24:07up uh an entire round since the game open. So go check him out. DK8P of 157.5.
24:13Obviously, we want you to go to check out DraftKings, play their best baseball game. It's a lot of fun. Um, I I love
24:19the set it and forget it nature of baseball. You you you clock in once a week. You have no decisions to make. You
24:25just see whether or not you won. You know, [laughter] that's not bad. It is a really good mix, especially when you're talking about,
24:32you know, operating four, five multip.
24:42Uh, plus you could win a million bucks.
24:43So, that's not [laughter] bad either, too. That's pretty good. Anyways, we got to get out of here. Be sure to check out
24:49DraftKings and be sure to check out uh the amazing data that you saw. Of course, that is on the website receptionperception.com.
24:56For Matt Harmon, I'm James Co. We got to go, but remember, it's never too late to chase your dreams. Peace.