VideoFrom Matt Harmon
The Luther Burden Hype Train Is Here | Reception Perception The Show
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
19 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 4, 2026
Published
Sat, July 4, 2026
4
Player insights
4
Players mentioned
Topics
Cole KmetEquanimeous St. BrownLuther BurdenRome Odunze
Player analysis
Player insights
Cole Kmet
PositiveUsage8:35
Cole Kmet is expected to dominate targets in the Chicago offense alongside Equanimeous St. Brown, as the third receiver options (St. Brown, Zay Thomas) are not volume hogs. Kmet will be one of the primary target recipients in the offense.
Insight pageEquanimeous St. Brown
PositiveUsage8:35
Equanimeous St. Brown is positioned to dominate targets alongside Cole Kmet in the Chicago offense. The third receiver options are not volume hogs, making St. Brown and Kmet the primary target recipients.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveProjection0:00
Matt Harmon assesses Luther Burden as a tier-three receiver prospect with a solid floor and clear upside. After a slow start with three games of negative receiving yards in his first seven games, Burden emerged as a dynamic playmaker in his final eight games with 5.6 targets, 4.3 receptions, 60.1 yards per game, 75% catch rate, and pace for 1,022 yards over that span. His yards per route run as a rookie ranks among the best ever for rookie receivers, behind only Odell Beckham. Harmon notes Burden's reception perception profile is strong: 71% success rate versus man coverage, 80% success rate versus zone coverage, 85% dig route success rate, and 73% success rate on out routes—metrics that warrant betting on him "seven out of 10, eight out of 10 times" or "way more often than not." Harmon emphasizes Burden's exceptional profile with the ball in his hands: in space on nearly 68% of his sampled catches, went down on first contact on just 38% of those plays ("crazy low"), and broke multiple tackles on nearly 24% of plays ("exceptional result"). However, Harmon expresses measured skepticism about the hype, positioning him as a good but not great player, noting insufficient evidence of real receiver skills—specifically, not enough refinement and ability to get open across multiple areas of the field to justify going all-in. Burden's postseason performance was poor: 14 targets for 42 yards in one playoff game and 24 yards in another, with a miscommunication on a route with Caleb Williams and a drop, suggesting the end-of-season hype driven by his Week 17 performance (8 of 9 targets, 138 yards, 1 TD vs. San Francisco) may not fully reflect his consistency. Harmon is optimistic about Burden's outlook and believes he's ready to be a starting receiver in the NFL and at least a high-quality WR2; if he improves technically and takes on more advanced receiver responsibilities in year two, he could develop into a WR1.
Insight pageRome Odunze
PositiveProjection8:59
Matt Harmon believes the breakout that happened at the beginning of the season for Rome Odunze was real. He views the Burden vs. Odunze comparison as closer to a toss-up than conventional wisdom suggests, with Odunze having a slight edge from a route separation standpoint and winning at all three levels. Harmon is a big fan of Odunze as a prospect and of his performance in the past season, and fully believes year three can be a monster year for him. Harmon emphasizes that liking both Odunze and Burden is not mutually exclusive and pushes back against the internet narrative that forces a choice between the two receivers on the same team. Odunze has been up and down with injuries; the injury was devastating not just physically but also from a practice reps and communication standpoint within the offense, causing him to fall out of sync with the offense. Odunze will play all over the formation and all three receiver positions, not confined to the X position as conventional wisdom suggests, with no fixed role assignment. He will get reps from the slot and outside, and was doing a lot of the Amon-Ra St. Brown-type work at the beginning of the year.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Well, if we're talking about quick game, Luther Burden is certainly one of those guys that are that's very exciting, I think, in the quick game. This is a
0:08player that in his first seven games did nothing. And as a matter of fact, in his first seven games, Matt, I really I've
0:17said this stat before and I really just can't believe it. But in his first seven games, he had three different games
0:23where he had negative receiving yards.
0:26>> [laughter] >> That is incredible.
0:29That being said, in his final eight games, he started to come alive. 5.6 targets, 4.3 receptions, 60.1 yards. He only had
0:40one touchdown in that time span, as well, but a really impressive 75% catch rate during those final eight games. If you stretch that out, he was on pace for
0:501,022 yards over those final eight.
0:54Now, let me ask you this, Matt.
0:57I think more casual fans have absolutely no idea who the hell Luther Burden is. Like none. Right? Like I Like I said, he only caught one
1:05touchdown. And casual fans, they they see a lot of touchdowns, red zone and highlights and all that kind of stuff, right? Okay. But there are a
1:13I think an inordinate amount of folks who cover football professionally that seemingly cannot stop talking about Luther Burden. Like they love the
1:25prospect of Luther Burden going into 2026. Where do you fall in terms of what Luther Burden might look like in 2026?
1:36>> Look at the release.
1:37>> There's your separation.
1:38>> Great route.
1:39>> Stutter and go. Gets by clean.
1:40>> That is unbelievable.
1:42>> May be the greatest catch I've ever seen.
1:47>> Yeah, well, number one, there's there's a lot of reasons why people would like Luther Burden. One of which is because
1:54he's a really exciting player.
1:57and frankly easy player to like with the ball in his hands. I mean, he is dynamic after the catch. Um Uh
2:06>> [clears throat] >> Roma Odunze, his teammate, told me uh that they say in the building like whenever Luther Burden catches a
2:11football in space, I guess like a punt return is about to happen because that is how dynamic he is, you know, with
2:17that football in his hands. His reception perception charting data backs that up as well. Like this is a guy that easily I mean, this these type of
2:24players are very easy to like because what they do is easy to see, right? Like these all these are fine route runners
2:32and technicians. People watching games on Sunday don't don't, you know, you don't get a get a real good glimpse of that, but you do get a glimpse of like,
2:39"Oh, that guy caught a screen pass or a quick in-breaker and got you 10 plus Yeah, yeah, exactly.
2:45Or got you 10 plus yards. In addition to a broke tackles, is really hard to bring down. He's slippery. Like all that is
2:50very easy to like. That's part of it.
2:53The other part of it is and and we don't have to give you the stat specifically because uh every other, you know, podcast that
3:01talks about Luther Burden is going to mention that his like yards per route run as a rookie is one of the best ever
3:06for uh any any rookies. It's like right behind Odell Beckham among rookie receivers. So, yards per route run, people like that stat. It's a good stat.
3:13It's also worth noting the other guys that he's up up top there with. They're all going to be some of the best
3:17receivers you've you've seen of late like Odell Beckham, A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson are is up there. These rookie yards per route Luther Burden was a
3:24part-time player doing that. These other guys were full-time players. I think So, that's obviously context worth noting even though again, he is definitely a uh
3:31a really really good player and I'm not taking away from him when I say that.
3:35The other thing is that he uh quite literally won people their fantasy football championships. His best game uh from >> [laughter]
3:42>> uh yourself include by by me included, by the way. I I won a fantasy football championship with >> [laughter] >> with Luther Burden on my roster uh in
3:50week 17 and people remember that, right?
3:53Like because we we talked about it.
3:54People remember the end of the season at a really high rate. It's the most recent thing um you have seen, and Luther
4:01Burden in week 17 against the San Francisco 49ers caught eight of his nine targets for 138 yards and one of his two
4:09touchdowns on the season uh did Luther Burden there. Now, what people don't often talk about is that he was not good
4:16in the postseason, you know, whatsoever.
4:19Uh like all that yards per route run stuff. They usually cut it off there.
4:22They cut it off a week 18. Don't mention that he uh 14 targets, 42 yards in one game, uh 24 in the other.
4:30>> Yeah.
4:30>> Uh had a miscommunication on a route with Caleb Williams, a drop in another.
4:33So, definitely like that was part of it, too, that I wouldn't say just like soared at the end of the year. There's
4:39that There's that context as well. So, that's why people like Luther Burden because, quite frankly, from a stats perspective, from an eye test
4:45perspective, he is a really easy player to like, and his reception perception profile's really good as well, which you can talk about.
4:52>> Yeah, I mean, listen, when we're talking about these thresholds, he clearly crossed those thresholds, right? Like 71% success rate versus man, 80% success
5:00rate versus zone. Again, as a freaking rookie, >> [laughter] >> anytime you cross those thresholds, there is a lot to like. Okay. Now, Matt,
5:10I don't I I guess I I fall kind of sort of like on the lower range of this uh excitement. Um I think he's a good
5:18player. I don't see him as a great player. Um and and I'll explain like because again, like you take a look at
5:24the success rates and you're thinking to yourself, wow, this is really good yards per route run. Oh my gosh, really really
5:28good Luther Burden.
5:29Just it's just too much of this like like we're we're generating touches for this guy, you know? And it's like I don't see
5:37enough like real receiver stuff. And like I don't know. Maybe I'm just I don't know. Maybe I'm just like too spoiled with the whole like reception
5:45perception stuff. But I just like man, I I don't know like I don't see enough like real receiver stuff to be like, oh my god, I'm going all in on
5:53Luther Burden. Like this isn't that guy to me. I think he is a player who's a good player, but again, I just don't see enough refinement
6:03and ability to get open in multiple areas of the field where I'm going to say to myself, yeah, I'm going to invest
6:08in that guy.
6:10>> Um yeah, I I think that there's some truth to that. I wouldn't say full truth full truth to that in terms of the
6:17Luther Burden kind of real receiverness.
6:20I mean, >> [snorts] >> I I would say that anyone who's over 70% success rate versus man, which he is at
6:2771.1%.
6:29Like that's real enough for me, especially with some of the routes that he is good on.
6:33You know, dig route success rate is almost 85%.
6:37Really awesome. Like he's so good in the intermediate area. And this was true of him as a prospect, too, by the way.
6:43Particularly how he works outbreaking routes against man coverage, which which was true at Missouri and was true in the NFL. 73% success rate on out
6:54routes.
6:55So he was really good on those like bigger outbreaking routes specifically against man coverage and he worked the middle of the field, I thought, well in
7:02the intermediate area. Now there are definitely areas where he needs to get better.
7:06The he is he is certainly not like a fully formed superstar right now. Like we didn't see that guy as a rookie.
7:13Now in fairness to him, he missed a lot of time in the off season with an injury. That was part of the reason why
7:18he started slow. This is also a guy that needed to be pushed and we talked about this when he got drafted by the Bears
7:24that, you know, had he gone to a different place, I might have been concerned about Luther Burden and some of the like
7:31less than less than savory moments on the on the field on film at Missouri from like an effort standpoint, specifically working against zone
7:40coverage where he would just kind of like run into leverage and then just stop.
7:45Like he wouldn't consistently work himself open. That it was never going to fly in Chicago. So what was either going to happen was he that he was going to
7:52bust out right away. Like it was he's okay, fine. We're done with you. That's it. Or Ben Johnson, Antoine Randle El,
7:58and these guys are going to push this player >> Yeah.
8:01>> and he's going to become a much better zone beater than he was in college. And I I think at 80.4%
8:10we we got a pretty good result there for him in terms of the ability to beat zone coverage and kind of especially like I
8:16said deep over the middle of the field.
8:18Uh dig routes and stuff like that. So I thought it was a good good rookie season for Luther Burden. Like the hype
8:25and all that stuff, I'll let other people have those those conversations. I just think from an on-field perspective I would call this a good rookie season
8:34uh for Luther Burden. Um obviously we can talk about how he fits into the receiving room without DJ Moore. That's another part of this too is that like
8:42what he was as a rookie I don't think that's the role that they kind of really like him being a part-time player, more of a created
8:49touch guy. They're going to want to put the foot put the football in his hands and create touches for him.
8:53But um he's going to take on a bigger, you know, no pun intended burden in the passing game because now like DJ Moore
9:00so with all these guys by the way like they went from a room uh in Chicago that looked kind of crowded last year to now
9:07like their third receivers are either Equanimeous St. Brown or Zay and Thomas and Equanimeous St. Brown. Like those guys are not they're hopefully efficient
9:15players when you target them, but they're not volume hogs. So I think it's pretty much like Cole Kmet and Equanimeous St. Brown,
9:21Equanimeous St. Brown, you can put the order however you want it, guys. Those guys are going to dominate targets.
9:27>> Um all right. So again, you take a look at the wide receiver room. Obviously they get rid of DJ Moore.
9:32Um this is now thrusting Luther Burden into more of a starting role opposite of Rome Odunze who oh my gosh, I can't wait
9:39for that profile to come out because my goodness gracious Rome Odunze has been so up and down with the injuries as
9:44well. They added a guy out of LSU and Zay Flowers Thomas who I think is a really interesting player. Best name in
9:51this unit is out of Tennessee Squirrel White. Squirrel White as a wide receiver 4-5 here for the Chicago [laughter]
10:01Bears. Really best name for sure in Chicago.
10:05>> Maybe in the NFL, there's no question.
10:07Okay, so Matt walk me through this here a little bit in regards to Luther Burden.
10:12I mean again, when I say I need I'd like to see more it's because nearly 40% of his routes were either the
10:19slant flat or screen. Right, so this is a lot of stuff near the line of scrimmage.
10:24That being said, as you pointed out 85% nearly 85% success rate on the dig. 73% success rate on the out. He's dominating
10:33crushing the intermediate area of the field as well. And Matt, my goodness gracious, you want to talk about like getting in the good graces of Ben
10:41Johnson? That's it right there.
10:43>> [laughter] >> You got to win on some of these intermediate routes and certainly that is what Luther Burden is doing. But my question to you though is
10:52okay, so DJ Moore moves on. Luther Burden to me right now is positioned to be the number two. Can he be a
10:59legitimate high-end number two for Chicago? And I tell you what, a lot of folks are looking at Rome Odunze and saying well, you know what? I think Rome
11:07Odunze might have to slide down. Can Luther Burden be a true number one for Chicago in this wide receiver room?
11:14>> You know, I definitely think that's possible. I think it you know, it's close to like should and I don't think
11:20it's viewed this way because of how Burden ended the regular season and Odunze ended the regular season. I think that the conventional wisdom is like oh
11:28yeah, Burden will clearly be the one and over Odunze. I don't I don't buy that. I think that people don't realize how
11:34devastating the injury was for Odunze last year, not just from a physical standpoint, but also from like a practice reps standpoint and like just
11:41falling out of like communication within the offense and things of that nature, but like the breakout that happened at the beginning of the season, I did I
11:48thought I think was real for Odunze. Um >> Same.
11:51>> But that doesn't mean that again, it has to be like one of the I like I I I like both of these players. I think it's
11:57close to probably closer to a toss-up as to who is better. Um the other thing I think is worth kind of pushing back on
12:05is I've often seen it see it framed as like, "Well, Luther Burden will be the slot guy and Odunze will be the X." I
12:11I don't think so. Like I think both of these guys are going to play all over the formation. Like one thing that's
12:16clear after watching this offense and like Detroit is Detroit, okay?
12:22>> Yeah.
12:22>> Chicago is is Chicago, right? Like what Ben Johnson did his first season on the job at the control like fully at the
12:29Bucks stops with him. These guys everybody played all different roles.
12:34Like it wasn't there was no Amon-Ra St.
12:36Brown role, which like oh Luther Burden will be that. Like a lot of Amon-Ra St.
12:40Brown stuff Odunze was doing at the beginning of the year, you know? Like I think that all three of these guys are
12:44going to all three these two guys will play all three receiver positions a ton.
12:48And like everybody's going to get reps from the slot. There's not going to be like an X and a volume hog slot. So I
12:53think the good thing for both these guys, I think they can hang on the outside and play on the inside. Like I
13:00think Burden is probably better on the quicker layup routes right now and he got a lot more usage there. Um but I
13:08definitely think that a like from a route separation standpoint, winning at all three levels, like Odunze is a little bit ahead there than than Burden
13:16is, but yeah, I think no no questions in my mind that this guy is ready to be a starting receiver in the NFL and at
13:23least be a high-quality two. And like if he gets better from a technician standpoint and stuff like that, um you know, does take on more
13:33more big boy receiver stuff even more in year two for Luther Burden, like yeah, he could he could be a one. Um
13:40I don't know that I've seen like enough to say he's let's let's go ahead and just, you know, moonwalk him in here,
13:45just wave him right on into that club, but I don't think that's true really of any of these rookie receivers this year.
13:50So, yeah, I think that it no no question in my mind that he's ready to be a starting receiver.
13:56Um and and I'm I'm very optimistic about what he's going to do this year. I think Burden's profile was good.
14:03Um you know, it wasn't great. I think it was I think it was definitely very very very good, and especially again with the
14:08ball in his hands, like he is the most dynamic player on that offense right now with the ball in his hands, and one of
14:14the most dynamic of this class. Uh he was in space on nearly 68% of his sampled catches, went down on first
14:21contact on just 38% of those plays. That is a crazy low number.
14:25>> Wow.
14:26>> Multiple tackles on nearly 24. Like anything north of 20% in terms of breaking multiple tackles is an exceptional result, especially for a guy that's
14:34seeing this much volume of catches in the open field. So, yeah, that that right there is is is an advantage and
14:41like maybe even a trump card in his favor that we can spit this thing out and and he can just go create plays on
14:48his own. And when he get if he could he just needs to get better, I think, like winning on his own to even get more
14:55of those results.
14:57>> Yeah, you talk about that um that that dig route success rate. I mean, come on.
15:01I mean, we've seen it in the NFL now, right? Like especially in Sean McVay's offense, but in a lot of offenses across
15:06the NFL. Guys who win there and are special after the catch, >> Yeah.
15:12>> Okay. We're cooking.
15:13>> Those are great receivers. Those are great receivers. I mean, yeah, like again, can he be someone that becomes like a
15:21tier one receiver in the NFL.
15:24Yeah, I I wouldn't I wouldn't rule it out just because of guys that have done this from like a from a from a catch,
15:31you know, post-catch standpoint, but also can win on their own. And to me, like maybe you you disagree a little bit, but I think to me I saw enough to
15:38say like he can be a guy that that definitely wins on his own. Now, like I said, all some of those players from like a yards
15:45per route run standpoint, the efficiency stuff, they were better than Luther Burden in their rookie years, whether it was A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson,
15:52whether it was Puka Nacua, and all those you know, Odell Beckham Jr. certainly.
15:56>> Right.
15:56>> Um but but like that doesn't we don't have to push back on that so hard to then push him down too far, I guess, if
16:02that makes sense. Um the the post >> you know what it is, Matt? You know what it is, Matt? I've gotten caught up in
16:07the internet war of uh you have to pick between Odunze or Luther Burden. I I I am fully I'm fully admitting I got
16:14caught up. I'm I'm I'm getting caught up in this war.
16:17>> No, don't do it.
16:18>> [laughter] >> It recuse yourself from that James.
16:23>> Okay. Okay.
16:23>> Like literally >> a step back.
16:25>> It is a you are allowed to like two receivers on one team.
16:30>> That's fair.
16:31>> I love Odunze. I'm a big Odunze guy. I was a big fan as a prospect. I'm a big fan of what he showed this past season,
16:38and I fully believe that year three can be a monster year for Rome Odunze. That does not mean I have to dislike
16:46>> [laughter] >> Luther Burden.
16:47>> Fair.
16:48>> We don't have to do this especially when especially when it's concentrated. Especially when it's not like oh boy This team is going to throw the
16:55football. They're going to be efficient throwing the football. Hopefully Caleb Williams takes a step in year two.
16:59That's year year two in the system.
17:02>> Yeah.
17:02>> That has to happen for all these guys, right, to be really good. That does have He does have to get better. There's no
17:06question about that, even though he has really high high promising notes, and I'm if you were to like, you know, give
17:11me truth serum, I'd say I'm more positive than negative on Caleb.
17:15That all would be Like that has to happen. A lot of things have to happen.
17:18These guys have to all have to stay healthy. They have to take the next step in their development. Like, there are
17:21parts of Adonai's game that he needs to get better at in isolation. There's no question about that.
17:25>> Oh, yeah.
17:26>> Got to make Got to make some plays to catch point. Got to be a little bit better against zone coverage.
17:29But, for the most part, like, I think if these guys stay healthy, they take next step in their development, both of them
17:33will be good. You don't You can recuse yourself from the from the culture wars of you got to like one You can only like
17:39one receiver on a team. Don't have to do that. You don't have to do that. You You can You can opt out. Opt out.
17:45>> I'm going to opt out. I am. I'm going to take a step back.
17:48>> [clears throat] >> I'm going to reevaluate my values and and see where we're at.
17:52>> And look, like, if Luther Burden came in if he Bottom line is, if he came in here and was worse in
17:58reception perception, 100% I'd be like, well, yeah, Adonai's better. But, like, I mean, you just This stuff's obviously nuanced.
18:08It should be nuanced. It's complicated.
18:10I love to make it complicated because I love and respect football and I love and respect players and like >> Uh-huh.
18:15>> You make it complicated to show your respect and not just make it the simple whatever.
18:20You just want to make this stuff real simple for a reception perception standpoint. Really talented players, which Luther Burden's obviously really
18:26talented, who play in a good who who is a solid prospect. He was a solid prospect. Tier three receiver for me. He
18:32was a solid solid prospect at at minimum solid prospect. Plays playing in a good offense.
18:37>> Yeah.
18:37>> Bears, whatever you think of Caleb Williams and all that, it's good offense. By any measure, last year was really good offense.
18:43And this talented player clears 70% success rate versus man and 80% against zone, you bet on that player like every time more often than not. But, you bet
18:51on him more OFTEN THAN NOT.
18:53>> [laughter] >> MAYBE EIGHT OUT OF 10 TIMES, SEVEN OUT OF 10, you bet on him way more often than not. So, like, yeah, if he if his
18:59profile was worse, sure, we could do the this that and the other, but like, yeah, he's a good player worth betting on. I
19:04think all these guys are good players worth betting on. So, my answer my my Matt [snorts] Harmon approves this statement uh, know, address on these
19:12Bears pass catchers is yes. Which one do you like? Yes.
19:15>> Yes. That's it.
