Answering My Subscribers Wide Receiver Questions | July Mailbag

Matt Harmon expresses valuation concern about AJ Brown, stating he wishes Brown was "a round cheaper." While not wanting to be "totally out on AJ this year," Harmon believes the market is not pricing in enough decline signals, particularly in reception perception charting. He notes that Brown may play more Z receiver than X, which could help, but early camp reports suggest more X receiver usage. Harmon cannot justify Brown's current cost when he goes in the same range as Drake London.

Matt Harmon identifies Chris Bell as the only Dolphins receiver with a realistic path to becoming an every-down fantasy starter from a talent perspective; Bell can beat man press coverage and win down the field, fitting well into Miami's offensive scheme with breaking routes and play-action. However, Harmon expresses significant concern about Bell's practice time availability in the offseason, which he dislikes for receiver development, creating uncertainty about his actual playing time.

Matt Harmon expects Christian Watson to take the most snaps at X receiver for the Packers but notes his skills are best suited to being more of an off-ball receiver than expected, especially given his proficiency on big breaking routes. Watson was more productive on a per-route basis and more heavily targeted per route when Romeo Doubs was on the field than when off the field last year; Harmon attributes this to Watson's best usage coming when moved around to exploit matchups, which aligns with Doubs' outside-on-ball receiver role. Harmon expects Watson to maintain a fluid role with continued motion and alignment changes under LaFleur's dynamic offense.

Matt Harmon avoids Courtland Sutton at his current draft cost despite his productivity last year, characterizing him as "a straight up floor play with no real ceiling." Harmon prefers to shoot for more ceiling upside at that draft point, contrasting Sutton with later-round options like Puka Nacua and Reed Downs, noting that while the floor case is negligible between them, the ceiling case for those receivers is higher, making them better value targets.

Matt Harmon calls Cyrus Allen one of his favorite deep sleepers and believes he is the player in his dynasty rankings he is most ahead of market on. Despite being sub-6 foot and sub-200 pounds in a slot-based role, Allen can beat man coverage and should benefit from the Chiefs' improved coaching with Chad O'Shea and Venable running a tight ship.

Matt Harmon highlights DJ Moore as an underrated dark horse candidate for the lone receiver in heavy personnel packages with the Bills. Moore already filled this role for the Bears last year. With the Bills able to load three tight ends (Dawson Knox, Dalton Concincaid, Jackson Halls), Moore's elite vertical plane skills make him a strong fit. His nine-route success rate was very good last season; his curl-route success rate was very high in a small sample. Moore also performs well on deeper stop routes that Josh Allen favors. Harmon sees Moore as a viable answer in single-receiver sets, suggesting he could be a productive option if the Bills load up with three tight ends on the field.

Matt Harmon uses Jamar Chase as a real-world example of how an elite number one receiver benefits from a strong number two. Chase evolved from being an X receiver-only player early in his career to someone who now moves all around the formation, gets more opportunities in motion, and operates off-ball in the slot—a transformation enabled by having Tee Higgins as a credible X receiver.

Matt Harmon highlights Jaden Higgins as a dark horse candidate for the Texans. Higgins impressed with strong separation ability on 90-degree breaking routes (digs and outs) run at high volume with solid win rate, plus a big post-route success rate. Harmon notes Higgins needs the right role catering to win—ideally as a big Z receiver when spread out, off-ball, with slot reps rotating with Jaylen Null. In single-receiver situations, he could be the lone option. Harmon compares his separation ability to Michael Pittman Jr. and emphasizes Higgins' ability to win on explosive shot plays; he's also a solid blocker. Nico Collins' health is relevant since Collins is strong in these same route situations.

Matt Harmon expects Jaden Reed to take the most snaps in the slot for the Packers, though he notes Reed can also play outside as a Z receiver and has decent work off press coverage to play some X receiver as well, providing positional versatility across all three receiver alignments.

Matt Harmon projects Jaylen Waddle as significantly undervalued at his consensus ADP of WR23/51st overall in half-PPR, believing he should rank closer to WR12. Harmon cites three key factors: (1) Waddle is an efficient receiver who wins at all three levels and beats man press coverage at a high rate on a per-route basis; (2) Denver runs substantially more plays than Miami did last year (Dolphins ranked dead last in plays run), providing higher base opportunity; (3) Waddle will experience a seismic role change from outside on-ball receiver in Miami to a movement Z receiver in Denver, allowing him to take a career-high percentage of snaps off the line of scrimmage and access more efficient targets in motion, similar to Brandon Cooks' 2016 role shift when Michael Thomas arrived. Harmon states he will be "really in on Waddle this year" and believes "the market has this one completely wrong."

Matt Harmon expresses confidence in Josh Downs having a breakout season this year despite concerns about not beating out Michael Pittman last year. Harmon acknowledges Downs was hurt early last season and couldn't get on the field due to heavier formations and positive game scripts favoring the run, but emphasizes that Shane Steichen will play Downs this year—he won't bench him for Nick Westbrook-Ikhine or other depth options. Alec Pierce being banged up further increases Downs' opportunity. Harmon is not nervous about Downs' projection and feels good about the breakout potential, though hesitant to go all-in due to the unknown.

Matt Harmon is uncertain whether Malik Washington has demonstrated enough evidence in the NFL to operate as a full-field outside receiver. While Harmon views Washington as a good and useful player, he lacks 100% confidence that Washington can function as a true outside guy, which limits his reddraft fantasy appeal.

Matt Harmon identifies Marvin Harrison Jr. as a dark horse candidate for the lone receiver in heavy personnel packages (12, 22, 31 personnel). Harrison already filled this role when healthy in Drew Petty's offense with heavy tight end usage. The Cardinals can deploy Elijah Higgins (tight end/former receiver) as a clear-out player similar to Terrence Ferguson's role, freeing Harrison to run big in-breakers and out-breakers where he excels.

Matt Harmon expects Matthew Golden to take the most snaps as the Z receiver for the Packers in the three-receiver alignment with Reed and Watson. Golden had a middling rookie charting profile overall but showed his best success rate against press coverage and is more of a vertical receiver. Harmon would like to see Golden take some X receiver work to keep Watson's role more fluid, as Golden's skills are best suited to being an off-ball receiver given his strength on big breaking routes.

Matt Harmon views Michael Wilson's current draft cost as WR37 (89th overall) as reasonable given environmental factors, but cautions that the market may be overindexing on regression risk. Harmon emphasizes Wilson is "a really good player" with a solid role in Arizona's passing game, though questions remain about the team's overall offensive environment.

Matt Harmon acknowledges Nico Collins is undeniably one of the top receivers in the NFL talent-wise, but has been frustrating and unreliable from a fantasy perspective. Harmon projects Collins as a back-half WR1 on a base case scenario and notes he will likely remain a little frustrating and inconsistent. However, Harmon sees potential for improvement: Collins could be moved around the formation more, and C.J. Stroud could be better this year after posting top-10 EPA per play last season, which could elevate Collins' production.

Matt Harmon ranks Parker Washington as Tier 5 in his dynasty rankings and identifies him as a vertical slot receiver with strong success rates on posts, corners, and dig routes. Harmon values Washington as a complementary piece who can work off the number one receiver—he's a credible downfield threat that allows the elite WR to get "layups" on concepts and serves as a clearout guy on big breaking routes.

Pat Bryant is expected to fill the on-ball slot receiver role in the Broncos offense, similar to Willie Snead's role in the 2016 Saints offense when Michael Thomas was the X receiver.

Matt Harmon views Puka Nacua as part of an undervalued group (Nacua/Reed Downs) being drafted in the 99th–120th overall consensus ADP range. Harmon notes that reception perception data tells a "really different story" than these players being throwaway options, and he explicitly states he will "be higher in the market on those three guys," indicating he views them as undervalued relative to their actual production metrics.

Matt Harmon avoids Rashee Rice at his current cost as a low-end WR1, citing multiple concerns: injury risk, off-field risk, and role uncertainty. He notes that many other receivers in that range lack both injury and off-field concerns. Additionally, Harmon expects the Chiefs' run game to improve significantly with Kenneth Walker's arrival (Kansas City ranked dead last in explosive run rate at 2.9% over the last two years), which could reduce Rice's "scammy" passing game targets that served as run game extensions. This shift may diminish Rice's easy-button target opportunities. Harmon also expresses concern about Rice's chaotic offseason and uncertainty about whether improvement will materialize this year, taking a wait-and-see approach.

Matt Harmon identifies Trey Harris as a dark horse candidate for the Chargers. Harris, a second-year receiver, showed solid ability on breaking routes and brings an exceiver background from college, suggesting he could contribute in that role.