VideoFrom Matt Harmon
Am I Buying These Receiver Storylines?
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
36 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 26, 2026
Published
Sat, September 26, 2026
34
Player insights
34
Players mentioned
Topics
Amon-Ra St. BrownBaker MayfieldBrian Thomas Jr.Bryce YoungChris OlaveChristian WatsonDavante AdamsDeAndre HopkinsDeebo SamuelDenzel BostonDeshaun WatsonDK MetcalfDontayvion WicksEmeka Egbuka
Player analysis
Player insights
Amon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveUsage13:50
Amon-Ra St. Brown is described by Matt Harmon as a 'complete metronome' at the receiver position, leading the league with 27 targets.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
NegativeProjection25:35
Matt Harmon identifies Baker Mayfield's poor, frenetic play as the primary reason for the Buccaneers' disjointed offense and the lack of production for receivers like Emeka Egbuka. Harmon notes that Mayfield needs to trust his protection and pull the trigger on open routes to improve the team's offensive output.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
NegativeUsage8:50
Brian Thomas Jr. is identified as a top-10 receiver in targets per route run, but Matt Harmon notes he has been inconsistent on the field, resulting in a 22.4% target share (23rd in the NFL). He is still working through injury and on-field consistency issues, not yet fully meshing with the offense.
Insight pageBryce Young
PositiveProjection17:34
Matt Harmon highlights that Bryce Young has looked 'awesome' recently, attributing his improved performance to the effective play-calling marriage between Young and offensive coordinator Brad Idz. This shift has allowed Young to better execute his preferred style of play, which, combined with the emergence of Jaylen Coker and Tedaroa McMillan, is a significant benefit to the Carolina Panthers' offense.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveProjection12:34
Matt Harmon considers Chris Olave a clear top-8 to top-10 wide receiver, citing his 23 targets (second in the NFL) and improved consistency at the catch point. Olave shows strong chemistry with Derek Carr on in-breaking routes.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveUsage8:19
Matt Harmon classifies Christian Watson as a fantasy WR1, noting he is 'hogging volume' and ranks 10th in targets per route run through two weeks. Watson has evolved into a well-rounded player, maintaining his physical freak profile while adding savvy catch-point ability and zone-beating skills similar to Jakobi Meyers and Jauan Jennings.
Insight pageDavante Adams
PositiveRole5:43
Matt Harmon cites Davante Adams as the gold standard for how elite route-running technique allows a receiver to remain productive deep into their career, even as physical explosiveness naturally declines.
Insight pageDeAndre Hopkins
NegativeProjection2:13
Matt Harmon references DeAndre Hopkins as a historical benchmark for maintaining high target shares over consecutive seasons, suggesting JSN has the potential to sustain his current high-volume production.
Insight pageDeebo Samuel
PositiveUsage8:48
Deebo Samuel is noted by Matt Harmon as being among the top 10 receivers in targets per route run.
Insight pageDenzel Boston
PositiveBreakout52:25
Matt Harmon identifies Denzel Boston as the rookie wide receiver one, citing his 96% route participation and 2.44 yards per route run. Harmon praises his ability to operate as an exclusive X-receiver, his success rates against man (70%) and zone (79%) coverage, and confirms he is a dynasty riser who is currently undervalued by the market.
Insight pageDeshaun Watson
PositiveProjection54:15
Matt Harmon notes that Deshaun Watson had his best game since the pandemic against the Buccaneers, showing improved accuracy on quick outs and deep routes, which directly benefits Denzel Boston's production.
Insight pageDK Metcalf
PositiveUsage25:45
Matt Harmon argues that DK Metcalf is being miscast as a high-volume 'number one' receiver in a static, outside-X role. Despite a 26% target share and 19 targets through two weeks, Metcalf has only 8 catches for 67 yards. Harmon notes Metcalf has never been a 'metronome' target-earner and is currently struggling in an offense that lacks motion and relies on a static, outdated scheme, failing to capitalize on his opportunities.
Insight pageDontayvion Wicks
PositiveUsage8:30
Matt Harmon notes that Dontayvion Wicks is currently inside the top 20 in targets per route run, sharing significant target concentration with Christian Watson in a Packers offense that is playing with increased pace.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
PositiveBreakout24:46
Matt Harmon rejects the narrative that Emeka Egbuka is struggling, arguing he is playing well in isolation and getting open at all three levels. Egbuka is deployed in a versatile role with 77% of snaps off the line of scrimmage, 40% in the slot, and 16% in the backfield. Harmon attributes Egbuka's lack of production to Baker Mayfield's poor, frenetic play rather than Egbuka's performance.
Insight pageIsiah Pacheco
NegativeUsage50:45
Matt Harmon mentions Isaiah Pacheco as part of the target distribution in the Chiefs' offense, noting he has two targets on passes of five or fewer air yards.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
PositiveValue15:25
Matt Harmon lists Ja'Marr Chase as one of the few receivers he would draft ahead of Chris Olave in a redraft scenario.
Insight pageJakobi Meyers
PositiveUsage21:13
Matt Harmon highlights Jakobi Meyers as a low-usage outlier, noting his 6.1% target share ranks 93rd out of 98 wide receivers charted.
Insight pageJalen Coker
PositiveBreakout16:57
Matt Harmon identifies Jaylen Coker as a breakout receiver and a top-25 talent in the NFL, noting he is a massive hit as an undrafted free agent. Coker is dominating Carolina's target share alongside Tedaroa McMillan, with the pair accounting for nearly 50% of team targets. Reception Perception metrics show Coker outperforming McMillan across the board, including success rates against zone (78.4%) and press coverage (75.9%). His emergence, alongside McMillan's, is a significant benefit to Bryce Young and the Panthers' offense.
Insight pageJaxon Smith-Njigba
PositiveValue7:25
Matt Harmon identifies Jaxon Smith-Njigba as an elite route runner and technician, ranking him ahead of Chris Olave in current fantasy value based on his 23 targets through the early season.
Insight pageJayden Reed
NegativeInjury10:44
Jayden Reed is expected to miss a significant amount of time due to a serious injury sustained early in week two.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
PositiveProjection5:11
Matt Harmon includes Justin Jefferson in his 'three-horse race' for the best wide receiver in the NFL, alongside Jamar Chase and JSN. Harmon also identifies Jefferson as a player he would draft ahead of Chris Olave in current fantasy rankings.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
PositiveUsage50:34
Matt Harmon highlights that Kenneth Walker's presence in the Chiefs' offense has fundamentally changed target distribution, noting that Walker has 11 targets on passes of five or fewer air yards through two weeks. His integration has forced a shift in how the offense functions, reducing the target share for other receivers like Rashee Rice.
Insight pageKhalil Shakir
PositiveUsage8:48
Matt Harmon highlights Khalil Shakir as one of the top receivers in the NFL in terms of targets per route run, placing him in the top 10.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
NegativeProjection15:49
Matt Harmon notes concerns for Malik Nabers due to his quarterback's injury status and his own current injury issues.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
NegativeUsage17:31
Matt Harmon expresses concern over Marvin Harrison Jr.'s usage, noting he is running a high volume of vertical routes (28% nine routes) and playing 79% on-ball, which limits his access to "layup" targets. Harrison has struggled with separation in his first two games, marking the worst performance of his career in that metric, and Harmon is currently ranking him only as a boom-bust flex option rather than a reliable WR2.
Insight pageMatthew Golden
PositiveUsage8:30
Matthew Golden is currently inside the top 20 in targets per route run, forming a productive tandem with Christian Watson in a Packers offense that is playing with increased pace.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
NegativeRole20:05
Matt Harmon highlights that Michael Wilson is having a solid moment and maintaining a consistent role within the Cardinals' offense, but he remains only a boom-bust flex option for fantasy purposes, falling outside the WR2 tier.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveUsage20:16
Matt Harmon identifies Parker Washington as the clear-cut WR1 for the Jaguars, citing his massive 36.7% target share, which ranks second in the NFL. Harmon attributes this success to Washington finally playing in his natural slot role (47% of snaps), where he has shown improved efficiency, including a 3.9 yards per route run rate and a 15% first-down rate.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
NegativeInjury5:11
Puka Nacua is currently dealing with an injury, which Matt Harmon notes complicates his standing in fantasy receiver rankings and the broader conversation regarding the best wide receivers in the NFL.
Insight pageRashee Rice
PositiveUsage32:08
Matt Harmon believes Rashee Rice's role has fundamentally changed due to the arrival of Kenneth Walker, shifting Rice from a primary slot role to playing 62% of snaps outside. Rice's target share on routes has dropped to 11%, and he is no longer the focal point for short-area targets. Harmon notes Rice is currently struggling to separate against man and zone coverage, potentially exacerbated by his recovery from a knee injury.
Insight pageTetairoa McMillan
PositiveProjection24:16
Matt Harmon views Tedaroa McMillan as a high-level rookie X-receiver who is performing well and expected to improve in year two. McMillan is a massive success for the franchise as a top-10 pick, currently dominating Carolina's target share alongside Jaylen Coker (nearly 50% combined). Harmon considers him a key part of the Panthers' offensive success alongside Bryce Young.
Insight pageTravis Kelce
NegativeUsage50:41
Matt Harmon notes that Travis Kelce has eight targets on passes of five or fewer air yards through two weeks, highlighting the shift in the Chiefs' offense toward spreading out quick routes among multiple players.
Insight pageXavier Worthy
NegativeUsage50:34
Matt Harmon identifies Xavier Worthy as a primary screen receiver in the Chiefs' offense, noting he has four targets on screens and six targets on passes of five or fewer air yards through two weeks. Harmon questions whether this specific usage pattern will be sustainable long-term.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveValue15:41
Matt Harmon considers Zay Flowers a close comparison to Chris Olave in fantasy value when Flowers is healthy.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00What's going on everyone? I'm Matt Harmon. Let's talk a little bit about some wide receiver fact or fiction presented by Lisa. We're going to look
0:08at some wide receiver storylines through two games of the NFL season. We're going to decide if we're buying or selling these wide receiver storylines. Fact or
0:17fiction? I'll be the one to decide that.
0:20Let's get into it.
0:28All right. All right, wide receiver storyline number one, Jackson Smith and Jigba. Speaking of number one, Jackson Smith and Jigba is the best wide
0:36receiver in the NFL. Listen, JSN is an absolute printfest right now. He's just completely crushing it. He is being targeted on 44%
0:47of his routes through the first two weeks of the NFL season. He is averaging 5.5 yards per route run. He is gaining a
0:57first down on 26% of his routes through the first two weeks of the season. It's absolutely insane what's going on right
1:06now. There is such a serious concentration between JSN and everybody else in that passing game. And it's funny because I know I said this a lot
1:13during the off season. It's like, man, JSN had the highest target share that we've ever seen among wide receivers from 2015 to current. like the last
1:23decade he has the highest target share.
1:26You know, is that is that is could that regress, right? Could could that take a step back? We've seen guys go backto
1:33back 30 plus seasons. DeAndre Hopkins has done it before. Maybe JSN could do it. Well, as a matter of fact, through
1:39two weeks the season, he's beating that number. He's actually beating that number with a backup quarterback and Drew Lockach taking the vast majority of
1:46the reps so far. Uh Drew Lock, by the way, has completed 100% of his play action pass attempts so far this season.
1:54So, shout out to Drew Lock. He's actually playing pretty good football through two weeks. But it sure helps when you have a guy who is I mean just
2:00about always open in Jackson Smith and J. Theoretically, like if I was to give you which wide receiver among that trio,
2:06I'm spitting the ball out on a quick screen or a quick slant route and he's going to house that thing like a 60 yard
2:13play. You'd probably say Jamar Chase.
2:15But we just watched it. Like JSN makes big plays as well because he's always open. He works so well on the vertical
2:22plane. He's also, as we're showing here, one of the best, if not the best, wide receivers in football on the inbreaking
2:28routes, particularly the dig route, the out route. He was absolutely insane on as well last season. We've seen no drop off on that in the in through the first
2:38uh two weeks of this NFL season. He's absolutely in that inner circle. I mean, if we're I don't know if I'm truly
2:45buying the story that he's the best wide receiver in the NFL. Uh he is certainly performing the best in terms of
2:51concentrating targets, being productive with a backup quarterback, dusting everybody he's going against. I mean, that's that's the JSN story right now.
2:58So, does he have a strong argument for it? I'm absolutely buying that he has a strong argument to be the best wide
3:03receiver in the NFL right now. Very least, he is on the podium. It's tough with Puka banged up in this current
3:11moment right now, but I mean, if we're talking best wide receivers in football, I think it's a three-horse race between Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, and JSN
3:17now firmly on that podium. Like, he he's on the podium to be considered one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. And
3:24quite frankly, it it is because of route running. Okay? Uh you can you can light my ass up in the comments for just
3:30talking about route running and technique and all that when it's always size, physicality, this, that, and the other. Of course, that stuff matters.
3:36Route running is not everything.
3:38But it is the main thing. And if you need proof of that, watch Jackson Smith and Jigba. You need a further proof of
3:43that, watch Devonte Adams on Monday Night Football this week. What we just saw on on Monday against the New York Giants. That guy is 33 years old. He'll
3:50be 34 in December and he's still capable of putting up elite performances because he is still an elite route runner. Is he
3:57the explosive separator that he was at his current his absolute peak? No. But he is going to be able to have that
4:05technique in his bag. until he's like 40 years old. That's how he became one of the best receivers in football after
4:12really struggling early in his career.
4:13JSN, I wouldn't say he struggled early in his career, but he was kind of in this like weird nebulous role in the
4:19Shane Waldron offense. He was a slot only player at Ohio State. Now we're seeing him win big boy routes. We're seeing him win against press man
4:25coverage consistently because he has become a capital E elite technician. So, you want to be the peak of wide receivers, you have to be an elite route
4:35runner. have to be an elite technician.
4:38And you want to have a game that's going to last deep into your career, you also need to be an elite route runner as
4:45well. It's not everything, but it is the main thing. And that is why Jackson Smith and Jigba has at least bare
4:50minimum got himself onto the podium as we're discussing who's the best wide receiver in the NFL. Let's go to our second storyline here. Christian Watson
4:59is a wide receiver one. I mean, there's speaking of target concentration in offenses right now. We've got a pretty good concentration going between the two
5:10Green Bay Packers wide receivers. These guys are both Matthew Golden and Christian Watson inside the top 20 in targets per route run at the wide
5:18receiver position. Watson has been incredible in terms of hogging volume through two weeks of the NFL season. He is 10th in targets per route run at the
5:28wide receiver position. There are guys like Khalil Shakir and Debo Samuel by the way. Brian Thomas Jr. You know about that one. Um two Jags in the top 10 at
5:37the position. Uh one we will talk about a little bit later on. But yes, Christian Watson has been dominant uh in
5:43terms of getting the football. He's really taken his game up I think maybe even another level based on what I'm seeing so far. In 2025 he took a step
5:51forward as a zone beater for the first time in his NFL career was hovering right around that 80% mark. you know,
5:58we're talking about someone who's so explosive and what a fascinating mix of player comps for his 2025 season. I think this really shows you the
6:04evolution of his game where yeah, he's still that like physical freak Kenny Galla type, but savvy at the catch point like a Marvin Jones, good at the dirty
6:14work, zone beating like a like a Jacobe Meyers, like a Jawan Jennings. You know, we got some T. Higgins comps in here. I
6:22mean, it's just like we saw Christian Watson become this really well-rounded player who expanded his game in 2025, and he's so far through two weeks kept
6:33that up. He's been efficient. He's been consistent. He's playing all three receiver positions. Like, they kicked this guy into the slot. Um, even Sky
6:43Moore, like replacing Jaden Reed.
6:44Unfortunately, Jaden Reed looks like he's going to miss a huge chunk of time with a serious injury that happened early on in week two. unfortunate for a
6:51guy that whose game I am really fond of.
6:53You know, at at this point now, like they had Sky Moore replace Jaden Reed.
6:59And they were still kicking Christian Watson into the slot to kind of sacrifice Sky Moore at times in week two, which I mean, listen, you should do
7:06that because Christian Watson is awesome. I think Watson certainly looks like a guy who can be a fantasy football wide receiver one the rest of the way as
7:14long as he stays healthy. and him and Matthew Golden form a really nice tandem for a team that's going to need it. Like
7:19this Packers team absolutely has to play and they are playing with more pace so far this season than we typically see
7:26them. Uh right now through two weeks they're about 14th in pass rate over expected. They are sixth uh they're they're up there in terms of plays per
7:35game, 12th in pass rate over expected, fifth in seconds per play. Like they're playing faster. They're playing with a lot more no huddle. fifth and no huddle
7:43rate so far uh this season. These guys are going to eat and they're going to get a lot of targets because the
7:48offensive line and the run game are a mess. So yeah, I think Christian Watson continues to perform at a really high
7:52level. I'm buying this story line.
7:54Number three story line, Chris Olive is a top eight wide receiver in the NFL.
8:01I'm just going to say this right now. I absolutely buy this story line. Like you know, we're sitting down doing the
8:06rankings. Um, you know, it's it's interesting to kind of kick back and forth different options here, but whether you're talking fantasy, whether
8:12you're talking real life, I think Chris Lave is making a strong case to be in that top eight. We saw in 2025, as we're
8:19showing here, kind of a breakthrough for him, 92nd percentile, career best success rate verse man coverage, still really good against zone, still really
8:26good against press, separates at all three levels. I think one thing you've seen from Olive this year who is second in the NFL at the wide receiver position
8:33in targets with 23 just ahead of Jackson Smith and Jigba. He's behind Damon Ross St. Brown who's just the complete metronome at the position 27 targets. Um
8:42you're seeing Chris Olive be a downfield receiver. You're also seeing him be really consistent at the catch point which maybe dogged him a little bit at
8:50times in 2025. I thought it was a little overstated but still he had some passes that he left on the football field. I
8:57think there's no doubt about that. But I mean, so far this year, he's made those plays. Him and Tyler Shuck are on a
9:03complete heater as we're showing. Like, let's look at the route percentage chart here. Those inb breaking routes, post, dig, cur curl route. I mean, Shuck is so
9:12good over the middle. They have a great timing, great chemistry there. I think we're going to continue to see this one.
9:18Like, if I'm sitting here and thinking about fantasy receivers that I'd rather have over Chris Ave right now, yeah, I'd go JSN. I'd go Jamar Chase. I'd go Aman
9:26Ross St. round. I' I'd probably go Justin Jefferson. Um, does the conversation start there? You know, Puka Nakua dealing with an injury right now.
9:36CD Lamb is awesome. I think CD Lamb and Chris Lave, that's a close call. Z Flowers when he's healthy. I think
9:41that's a close call.
9:43I think that I think the list stops there. You know, maybe Dvonte Smith is in that conversation. Malik Neighbors, his quarterback is hurt. He's got some
9:51injuries. I I right now if we were reddrafted today, Chris Obby would easy be easily be a top um early second round
9:58pick, early second round pick to me and I had him ranked as a second round pick anyways in fantasy. I had him ranked as
10:04a fringe top 24 player was kind of pushing him ahead of some guys that other people were drafting him ahead of.
10:10Like I just think this guy's a stud. I think he's a clear top 10 receiver in the NFL. Top eight. Um yeah, I'm I'm
10:15buying it. Like there's not a lot of guys that I would rather have than Chris Olive right now. That's the level that
10:21he is playing at. Completely buying this storyline that he has gra I mean yet another graduation moment for Chris Olive who is still I feel like kind of
10:29really underrated across the NFL sphere but not going to be after he puts him into production that he has been so far
10:34this year. All right, fourth wide receiver storyline. Cardinals wide receivers don't matter for fantasy.
10:42Unfortunately, I do think I'm I I am actually gonna sell on this storyline here. And this is a tough conversation right now to have with all
10:51of the Marvin Harrison Jr. stuff hanging over our heads. You know, I'll say this.
10:56I actually came away from watching the week 2 Cardinals offense against the Seahawks and just kind of saying like, what do you want them to do? Like this
11:04is the Seattle Seahawks defense. They were on everything in that game just like they were on everything in week number one. I that was clearly a tape
11:12that I'm I'm surprised people are freaking out about the Cardinals offense. Again, Marvin Harrison Jr.
11:18aside, I'm surprised people were freaking out about the Cardinals offense after that game. What did you expect to happen? Nobody expected Marvin Harrison
11:24Jr. to have a good game against the Seahawks. Nobody expected the Seahawks, the Seahawks to do anything but smother the Cardinals offense and they got
11:31completely smothered. Like the Cardinal I'm Cardinals curious. I but I'm not like saying they're, you know, I'm not Cardinals serious that they're going to
11:37go in there and beat the Seahawks or have a good game against that defense.
11:39That's the best defense in the NFL. I think maybe by a significant margin.
11:44they they're just way more talented and, you know, way more experienced together on that side of the ball than anything we're talking about with Arizona. Now,
11:52you know, there are going to be moments for the Cardinals where I think those wide receivers, again, Marv, there's a lot of weirdness going on, but like
11:58there's going to be moments for these guys where they have something in the bag, something to go off of here. I I
12:05will say Michael Wilson is like he he's having his moment. He's having his role.
12:10It looks pretty solid. Marv, it's tough right now. I this is through two weeks and I've charted both of these games.
12:17This is definitely the worst I've seen him play. Uh it's the worst I've seen uh Marv play. And like are there some reps
12:23where the efforts like you know come on what are what are we doing here? Yeah, for sure. Like there's no question about that. Uh but I I will
12:31say you can do that for almost any receiver in the NFL. You're going to find some disturbing reps overall there.
12:38Nevertheless, like I've got him at some really poor success rates so far this year. And some of that is because of the
12:46role, but not all of it. Okay? Like he he is definitely running a ton of vertical routes. 28% nine routes, you
12:53know, corner route 5%, post route 12%.
12:56There's definitely a lot of vertical routes against press man coverage as the ex receiver. You know, so far he is 11%
13:04slot, 79% on ball. not what you want to see from from Marv if you're looking for layups and things of that nature. It's
13:13gonna be tough. I I think there I mean there's got to be some weirdness going on in the building. I I don't know. Um
13:18but it was two really tough even if the Chargers defense is clearly taking a step back. They do generally want to try to put a limit on the
13:26outside X receiver in some of those nine routes. They're pretty good at clouding that stuff up. I don't know. I don't
13:32know what to say about the Marv thing.
13:34It's not been great. These are easily the two worst games I've ever seen in his entire career from a separation standpoint as we're showing on the 2025
13:40chart. Like this is a guy who got open in his first two years in the NFL. Not been getting a lot of separation so far
13:47this year. And I just wonder if maybe there's a trade coming for him. I I don't know. Uh is it going to be end up
13:52going to be a distraction? Like if you're Michael Ford, do you want to be answering all these questions because people want to go viral on social media?
13:58I don't know about that. So, I ultimately think I'm going to sell this storyline over the course of the season because I think this offense is still
14:05well designed and these guys are playing within their roles decently well. I think they can play better, but you know, I've not loved uh what I've seen
14:15out of Marv so far through two games.
14:17From a usage and from a play standpoint, I think it can get better for him. I think it can get better for Michael
14:21Wilson, who is a really good player. But from a fantasy standpoint, I'm not ranking either of these guys as anything more than boom bust flex options, you
14:30know, outside the wide receiver two zone for sure. That is of course where they were drafted this year and kind of what
14:35they were expected to be. Again, I don't think anybody was really expecting them to have a good game against the Seahawks
14:40and and they didn't. So, uh we'll see what it looks like this week and beyond for the Arizona Cardinals wide receivers, but not off to a great start
14:46for particularly their uh former fourth overall draft pick. Okay, number five story line. Jaylen Coker is better than Tedaroa McMillan. Um, I'm going to sell
14:57this storyline only because I kind of think this one is a push. I think these guys are basically even in terms of how
15:05good they are. And I posed this question to my co-host over at Yahoo, Nate Ty.
15:10What is Tedo McMillan better at than Jaylen Coker? And I don't think there's an easy rightway answer there. And in reception perception, you know, Jaylen
15:22Coker did clear McMillan across the board. Uh Coker was 73.8%.
15:28It was 72.3% for Tedo for Tedo McMillan.
15:32Very close there. 78.4% success rate versus zone for Coker. 77.5% for McMillan. You look at press coverage, 75.9%
15:41for Coker, 72.9% for Tedo McMillan. So it's close between these two guys. And by the way, none of Tedoa's results are like, "Oh, that's
15:51disappointing for a top 10 draft pick."
15:53No, that's perfectly good for a guy who played almost all x receiver as a rookie. I think he's going to be even
15:59better in year two. I think he has been looking pretty good so far. It's just Coker's way better than anybody outside
16:05of the reception perception hive, maybe.
16:07I'm know there are other people that like Coker, you know, come on. I don't I don't own this take, but for the most
16:13part, he's way better than basically everybody thought. And he could do more things than people thought. I I look there's a reason I love this guy. Like I
16:19think he's fully breaking out as a top 25 receiver in the NFL. I also think that Tedaro McMillan is at that level
16:27and I think both these guys can continue to get better. Bryce Young's looked awesome. The marriage between Bryce Young and Brad Idz as the play caller
16:33was a super underrated storyline this off seasonason. I feel like if you pulled most people out there, they probably still don't even know that Dave
16:40Canalis is not calling the plays. It's Bradzick now, the former off the current offensive coordinator. He's calling the plays and he's just had a better feel on
16:48what Bryce Young wants to do. Canalis talked about that in the offseason. That marriage is working out really well. As is the duo of Jaylen Coker and Tedo
16:56McMillan. So, you know, if you want to say Tedo is a little bit better than Coker, totally fine. You want to say
17:01Coker's a little bit better than Tedo McMillan, that's totally fine. Like these guys are very, very close. That's why you're seeing them dominate the
17:07targets in Carolina. These guys almost have a 50% of the targets just to the two of them in Carolina. These guys are
17:14getting the football. They should continue to get the football. They are awesome young wide receivers. Carolina has a huge hit in a top 10 pick in Tedo
17:21McMillan. And they have a massive hit as an undrafted free agent in Jaylen Coker who they waved at one point. By the way,
17:28the rest of the league could have had Jaylen Coker. They dropped the ball on that one. It gets to be to the benefit
17:34of the Carolina Panthers and Bryce Young and everyone. So, look, I just think this is absolutely fantastic for the Carolina Panthers. And I'm buying stock
17:42in both of these young receivers.
17:44They're awesome. You know it because you subscribe to Reception Perception. And you know what I know? I know that we got
17:51to take a quick break to talk about our sponsor, Lisa. And if you're talking about something I'm buying or selling, I
17:56am 100% buying that Lisa makes the best mattresses in the game. And I can tell you that because I have a Lisa mattress.
18:03I'm sleeping on that thing every single night here at home. And I am absolutely loving it. I'm getting better sleep than
18:08ever. Uh which is critical during the NFL season, by the way, here on the East Coast. You got some late nights. You got
18:14to maximize every second that you're in that bed so that you can get up in the morning and chart some routes. Okay? You
18:20got you got to be right back at this desk at some point and and you got to be looking at a Mecca Ibuka. How many times
18:26you offline? How many times you running dig routes? Is this is what is this? Are we is this the role that we're looking
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20:08Details are in the description and the pinned comment below. Okay, let's get back to the list here. Get back to some
20:14of these wide receiver storylines.
20:16Number six, Parker Washington is the clear-cut Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver one. Yeah, baby. We're buying this one. As I mentioned, the stats are
20:26actually pretty close from a target perspective, targets per route specifically when you're looking at Parker Washington and Brian Thomas Jr.
20:35because BTJ has been a little bit off and on the football field so far this year. But when you're actually looking
20:42at raw target share, that's where it's not close for the Jacksonville Jaguars wide receivers. Parker Washington is
20:50second in the NFL with a 36.7% target share. You got to scroll way down in the list before you get to any other
21:00Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver with Brian Thomas Jr. at 22.4%.
21:0523rd in the NFL is Brian Thomas Jr. You got to actually scroll all the way down to the bottom of the list. out of 98
21:13wide receivers. Jacobe Meyer's target share 6.1%.
21:17Is 93rd.
21:19Like this is Parker Washington's world and we're all just living in it. Last year Parker Washington's profile was a little bit difficult to discuss and I
21:29know we've talked about that. I I wrote this in the week one charting notebook.
21:32I hope I gave this enough context in the offseason. I feel like I did on the YouTube channel when talking about
21:37Parker Washington that for the vast majority of 2025, this Jag staff had Parker Washington playing out of position as like a reserve outside
21:47receiver, even having him line up on ball as an outside receiver way too much. It didn't make any sense. So, that
21:55depressed his overall success rates. But in the games in the back half of the year when he was a slot first player,
22:00over 40% of his snaps in the slot, he had an 82% success rate versus zone coverage, which was an excellent number.
22:07Uh he was also the best one of the best contested catch receivers I charted in 2025 and one of the best after catch
22:13receivers I charted in 2025. So far this year, 47% of his snaps in the slot. He's in the role that he should be in. He's
22:23been incredibly efficient. He's been incredibly effective. And again, I wrote this in the week one charting notebook, which is on the site reception.com if
22:30you want to check it out. Included film clips and everything. He has definitely taken a leap against man coverage so far
22:36this year. Uh that is kind of like the final hurdle to see him cross to be the guy that like is commensurate with this
22:43production. We're seeing it so far. 3.9 yards per route, getting a first down on 15% of his routes. He's checking all the
22:50boxes right now. And like I think BTJ still has some issues to work out from an injury standpoint, an onfield standpoint. Um just not totally meshing
22:59there right now, but he hasn't been useless either. Um he's had some moments, but it's just like right now Parker Washington is better and he fits
23:06the offense. And that's like period end of story. Number seven story line, Mecha Ibuka is struggling right now. I am actually going to sell this storyline. I
23:16think Amecha Ibuka is playing pretty well in isolation. charted the week 2 game for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver. I thought he played pretty
23:25well in that game. Um he got open, got separation at all three levels. He's playing the exact role that we wanted
23:32him to. He is off the line of scrimmage on 77% of his snaps. He's in the slot for 40%. He's in the backfield for 16%.
23:40Like he's moving all around the formation. It's a very Ramsayishish deployment style for the wide receiver Emecha Ibuka in year two, which is
23:49exactly what we wanted to see. Now, what we haven't enjoyed seeing is the way Baker Mayfield has played through two weeks. This is a very um 11 personnel
23:56heavy offense. They're number one in the NFL in rate of plays with three or more wide receivers on the field. They're
24:01using a ton of motion. They lead the NFL in routes with motion at the snap. This should be a printfest for Amecha Ibuka,
24:10but the quarterback is struggling right now. Like, this is a Baker Mayfield story. This is not an Acha Ibuka story who's been good with his opportunities.
24:18They just the opportunities haven't gone his way enough. And like, that's something that I guarantee you the coaching staff is looking at and saying,
24:23"Uh, yeah, we got to get this guy the football more." Like, Baker's got to pull the trigger on these routes. He's
24:28got to play a little bit less frenetic.
24:31I mean, Bucks have to be nervous with the way that Baker is playing so far this year. I'm not nervous with how
24:36Amecha Ibuka is playing so far this year. And you're looking at his 2025 route chart. There's a lot of very similar results and they're leaning into
24:43the routes that we want him to be running. 17% dig routes uh in week two, 17% post routes. There's definitely like
24:51Baker needs to hold on to the football, trust the pass protection, and rip that thing to this guy because he is getting
24:56open against man and zone coverage.
25:00We've just got to see way more consistent play from the quarterback than what we've seen so far. Uh and the overall offense is just a little
25:08disjointed right now. I'm hoping that the Bucks can settle in and kind of settle down Baker Mayfield to end this unit. A little nervous that week three
25:17is against the Brian Flores Minnesota Vikings. That's usually not a good time to settle down your offense and settle down your quarterback. Okay, number
25:23eight storyline. DK Metaf doesn't matter with the Pittsburgh offense. I I mean, doesn't matter with the Pittsburgh offense. Like, he matters. Like, he
25:33should matter to them. The problem is that it doesn't matter that DK Metaf is the number one wide receiver. JJ Watt,
25:39who I think is doing a nice job as uh the new lead commentator uh announcer for the CBS crew. I was I was watching
25:45that game on Sunday and he had a line where he basically said DK Metaf needs to be, and then again I'm like
25:52paraphrasing, needs to be that number one. He needs to be the guy that they can build the whole offense through. And
25:57they're trying, right? Like they're trying to make that DK Metaf. When you look at his target share, he's being targeted uh 26%. In terms of the target
26:05share, 19 targets overall. The problem is he has eight catches for 67 yards.
26:11Ryan Miller of the Miami Dolphins has more yards than DK Mechaf despite the fact that his 19 targets DK Mechaf is
26:19bested only by Aman Ross Brown, Chris Olive, and Jackson Smith and Jigba. Like he's getting all the opportunities. He's not making the plays. And this is the
26:26problem with JJ Watts quote, like they need him to be this guy. They need to be this. He's not this guy. At no point
26:31during his NFL career has he been the guy that the current version of the Steelers offense where he is an outside
26:37exceiver almost exclusively. 86% of his snaps outside through two weeks. He's never been a guy that's like primed Devonte Adams in this offense, which
26:47essentially just looks like it looks like what Aaron Rogers and Mike McCarthy were doing years ago. I mean, it's it's absolutely insane the way this
26:55offense is playing right now. The Steelers are fourth in pass rate over expected. They're eighth in plays with three plus wide receivers on the field.
27:03They they have no motion. They're 32nd in motion rate this year. Uh under center, 22nd percent.
27:10This is the old spread out static offense and Aaron Rogers does all the pointing stuff at the line of scrimmage and like he's not the athlete to move in
27:18the pocket anymore, boot out, any of that stuff. Yeah, that's what it is when you're 40 years old and the pass
27:24protection plan's a mess. I mean, he got smoked several times, did Aaron Rogers against the Patriots. I I really have no
27:30idea where the Steelers go from here with this offense. Like, they can't run this for 17 games, but this is what
27:37Rogers wants to do. It's what McCarthy's known. Like, this this just this was completely predictable. Like, seeing this coming here, the protection plan's
27:45a mess. They don't know what they're doing from a pass protection standpoint when it comes to adjusting to blitzes, all that. which is crazy considering
27:51Rogers is a super veteran quarterback and you McCarthy's been around for a minute. But this like static style of offense and they are one of the most
27:58static offenses in the NFL. Um I've talked about my static score which blends a lot of these you know under center play action motion all that
28:06stuff. They rank 28th in the NFL. They ran 28th in the NFL. They're one of the most static offenses out there if not I
28:11mean again one of it's bad. Okay, that part's bad. And the problem is when you have your number one receivers DK Mechaf
28:17is the X. He's not a metronome 10 plus targets, you know, set your watch by him type of guy. He's never been that. And I
28:23don't care that they paid him to be that. Like he's making 32 just almost $33 million a year at the wide receiver
28:28position.
28:30Great. That was a bad contract. You can't expect him to be that guy because he's never been that guy. JSN, Jamar
28:35Chase, Drake London, Justin Jefferson, Zayflower, CD Lamb, those are the only wide receivers on a per year basis making more than DK Mechaf. Bad contract
28:43by the front office. bad trade uh to expect him to be that guy like he is a he's still use I'm not saying he's
28:48terrible he's he's not been good through two games but he still can be a useful player just not in this role that they
28:54have him in and again the contract just it makes it worse like Garrett Wilson Chris Olive Amman Ross Brown Nico Collins shoot Jaylen Wadd I mean all
29:05these guys are they're making less than DK and I I can tell you who I'd take right now uh ahead of DK Metaf and you
29:12know that's not always like the best use the best instructive like thing contracts, but it just goes to show that they misvaluated Metaf and they
29:19misvaluated what this offense can be this year and I really just don't like you could tell me how you think it's
29:24going to get better. I don't see it.
29:26Okay, number nine storyline.
29:28It's over for Rashid Rice. I mean very harsh language obviously. Um, I do think Rasheed Rice's role has really changed
29:39through two weeks. And again, this was something that I think you could see coming. And it's primarily because Kenneth Walker has arrived. This offense
29:47in Kansas City looks way different than the unit that we saw in previous seasons. I mean, this Chief's offense has changed a ton. Like, they're using a
29:56lot more gap runs. Their play action is up. Their under center rate is up. Their use of motion is up. Their explosive run
30:03rate went from 32nd last year to eighth this year. This Chief's offense has just straight up fundamentally changed.
30:11They're using heavy personnel more. And that's number one pushed Rice from mostly a slot receiver to less of that.
30:19Like he's playing outside on 62% of his snaps so far this year. From 2024 to 2025, he's at 48%.
30:27He's being targeted on 11% of his routes through two games because these like quick routes are being more spread out throughout the
30:34offense right now. Um, Rasheed Rice has two targets on screens through two weeks. Xavier Worthy has four, Kenneth Walker has three. If you look at passes
30:41of five or fewer area yards, it's even more stark. Kenneth Walker has 11.
30:45Travis Kelce has eight. Xavier Worthy has six. EMTT Johnson has four. Rasheed Rice two. The two screens. If you look from 2025 to 2024 to 2025, Rice averaged
30:545.8 eight of those targets per game.
30:56Kelsey four, Xavier Worthy 2.4. Isaiah Pacheco two. Walker being here is a fundamental change for us as we expected. Now I think Rice so far, if
31:08I'm giving him like a benefit of the doubt part of this and like worthy being a screen guy like he kind of has to be,
31:14but I don't know if that's going to last. It's not been great so far. But, you know, Rice is a guy that rehabbed a
31:21freaking knee injury from jail. And I think he's playing on film like a guy who rehabbed a knee injury from jail.
31:27Like, he's not separating verse man coverage. He's never separated verse man coverage. That's who he's always been.
31:32But his success rate versus zone in the game I charted uh from week two also very very low. Could that improve as he
31:37gets healthier throughout the course of the season? Yes. But the days of him being like a target hog receiver, I think are over because Kenneth Walker is
31:45here and has fundamentally changed the way this offense functions. Okay, last storyline to talk through here is Denzel Boston is the rookie wide receiver one.
31:57I mean, through two weeks, yes, he has been the rookie wide receiver one. He is running a route on 96% of the Browns
32:05drop backs. He's averaging 2.44 44 yards per route run. He leads all rookies in production.
32:12Now, I think that Boston has played extremely well while also operating as a pretty much exclusive exceiver. I charted the week 2 game against the
32:24Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He was in the slot on 10% of his snaps. He was on the line of scrimmage on 98%.
32:31One snap off the ball. One, that's it.
32:35That's exceiver stuff. That's CL like so throwback. It's it's it's crazy. Now, obviously, when you're that player, you're going to have to hit on big
32:42plays. He hit on the one uh post route, ran that into the end zone thanks to some t terrible tackling from the uh
32:48Tampa Bay Buccaneers. What a mess that defense has been. And then you also think about uh the go route, like tight
32:55coverage look that Deshawn, who had his best game since the freaking pandemic.
32:59That's how embarrassing that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are. He could have he placed the ball like right in his hands along the sideline and Boston just lost
33:06control of it towards the end. He could have had an even bigger day. So, I think he's going to be like kind of big play
33:10dependent, but at the same time, Watson also hit him on some nice quick outs, some quicker routes altogether. And all in all, uh, Boston in this game, 70%
33:20success rate versus man, 79% success rate versus zone. Like, I thought people saying this guy couldn't get open as a prospect. That's crazy. You could
33:27clearly see on tape like this guy could get open, especially at his size. So, um, I'm going to sell the idea that he's
33:34the rookie wide receiver one for sure. I think some of these other guys will emerge and there a lot of these guys are
33:39in really bad situations right now, but I'm not selling on Denzel Boston, who, you know, from a dynasty perspective. I think is definitely going to rise up my
33:49rankings. He was already kind of a riser for me. He was already a player that I really liked overall. Um, Boston, I was
33:56definitely a Boston guy. Like I'm a huge Casey Conpsion fan and I think Casey Conpsion is going to be good uh and over
34:02the course of his NFL career, but there's no reason to be down on Denzel Boston whatsoever. Uh I have 12 spots in
34:09the Dynasty rankings tool ahead of the dynasty market. Um you could argue with me that it should be higher. I mean he's
34:15he's a really really really good player.
34:18Him and Casey Conpsion are going to be awesome for the Cleveland Browns. They get consistent quarterback play. Those two guys are going to completely cook
34:26this. I mean, they're just a really great duo. And Boston has been awesome in the NFL so far. And it's a consistent
34:31drum beat, by the way. This is why this stuff matters. OTAAS's training camp.
34:36Everybody who saw Boston thought he was great. Uh, I'm seeing him on the NFL field right now, and I think he is great
34:42as well. Okay, that's a look at 10 wide receiver storylines. I'm either buying or selling. Shout out to Lisa, our sponsors. Appreciate them. Once again,
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