VideoFrom Matt Harmon
How Does Quentin Johnston Fit Into The New Chargers Offense?
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
15 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 22, 2026
Published
Wed, July 22, 2026
4
Player insights
4
Players mentioned
Topics
Corey DavisJaylen WaddleLadd McConkeyQuentin Johnston
Player analysis
Player insights
Corey Davis
NegativeProjection13:00
Corey Davis in 2020 with the Titans was a disappointing first-round pick but turned into a solid starting receiver, posting 10.7 yards per target and ranking top five in the NFL in yards per route run (behind only A.J. Brown). Matt Harmon uses Davis as a comparable outcome for Quentin Johnston's potential trajectory. Matt Harmon cites 2020 Corey Davis as a comparable archetype for Quentin Johnston's potential season outcome. Davis posted 10.7 yards per target that year while making efficient plays on lower volume for the Titans, who ran 31st in 11 personnel rate at 39.3% in 2020—a similar offensive structure Harmon expects from the new Chargers team with fullback and tight end usage.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
NegativeRole7:00
Matt Harmon notes that Jaylen Waddle has been primarily an outside on-ball receiver throughout his career, contrary to common perception. His route distribution emphasizes slants, outs, digs, and flats while avoiding nine routes, curls, and comebacks—the exact inverse of QJ's current usage pattern, serving as a model for how QJ could be deployed in McDaniel's offense.
Insight pageLadd McConkey
PositiveRole7:00
Matt Harmon projects Ladd McConkey as the primary 'move around guy' in the Chargers' two-receiver heavy personnel sets, similar to how Tyreek Hill was deployed with Miami. Despite being a good press coverage receiver, McConkey's size doesn't necessitate X receiver positioning, positioning him for more versatile usage under McDaniel.
Insight pageQuentin Johnston
PositiveProjection0:33
Matt Harmon projects Quentin Johnston for ~900 yards with a good amount of touchdowns, living off big plays as a volatile boundary receiver. Johnston improved dramatically from 2024 to 2025 across coverage types: 61% success rate vs. man (up from 52%), 79.5% vs. zone (up from 75%), and 58.6% vs. press (up from 53%)—still below average against man and press but representing significant year-over-year gains. His dig route was his strongest at 75% success rate (up from 64%), and he improved dramatically on post routes from 54% to 77% success rate, demonstrating meaningful improvement in inbreaking and outbreaking techniques. His drop rate was low in 2024 (first year without being consistently haunted by drops), but he maintains an average-ish contested catch rate and will likely continue to struggle in contested-catch situations. Harmon uses 2020 Corey Davis (10.7 yards per target, efficient plays on lower volume) as a comparable outcome, reflecting the Chargers' expected 11 personnel-heavy offensive structure similar to the 2020 Titans (31st in 11 personnel rate at 39.3%).
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00I think his route tree is going to look
0:02really different this year. If you look
0:03at Quentin Johnston's route percentage
0:05chart
0:06from 2025
0:08and then you look at Jaylen Waddle's
0:10route percentage chart from 2025,
0:13>> Look at the release.
0:14>> There's your separation.
0:15>> Great route.
0:16>> Stutter and go, gets by clean.
0:17>> unbelievable.
0:19>> Maybe the greatest catch I've ever seen.
0:23>> You and I have been in a little bit of a
0:26disagreement in regards to Quentin
0:28Johnston. I read the profile, you know,
0:29like and I am impressed with his
0:31improvements overall.
0:33We're talking about a guy that posted
0:35nearly a 61% success rate versus man, so
0:38still very much below average, but got
0:40back to about league average or good
0:43markings here at 79.5% against zone, so
0:46that's a good number. 58.6%
0:50success rate versus press coverage.
0:52Again, still a below average number, but
0:54overall, Matt, this is a guy who has
0:56improved dramatically going for 2024 to
0:592025.
1:01>> Yeah, I'm sure it was like now over a
1:02month ago that you and I, when we were
1:04talking about Ladd McConkey, I think I
1:06made the point to you that I do think
1:08that we
1:10and at the time I meant you, but you
1:12know, it's not just you. It's not just
1:14you. I do feel like the the royal we,
1:17the general NFL audience, I think still
1:20holds Quentin Johnston's rookie season
1:23kind of too much against him. And by the
1:25way, I don't think that is
1:27exclusive to just Quentin Johnston. I
1:29mentioned that I I just working on
1:32It'll honestly it'll be published by the
1:33time this episode comes out, Zay
1:35Flowers's profile.
1:37He's another guy that I feel like still
1:39kind of gets
1:40typecasted in in the ways that he did as
1:43a rookie in some of these like
1:45Anyway, so totally separate
1:46conversation. But for for Quentin
1:48Johnston, I think it's it's very
1:49apparent because like his his rookie
1:52season in reception perception It a
1:55disaster. It was horrible. It's
1:58It's flat-out one of the worst
2:01that we've ever seen in reception
2:02perception history and you know, I mean
2:05I sometimes I remember at the time
2:07people put Well, he's not like he had
2:08like no production. I think he had like
2:09500 something yards his rookie season. I
2:11mean, dude, you you run enough You run
2:13like every single route on the from a
2:15drop-back standpoint with a quarterback
2:17like Justin Herbert, you're going to
2:18fall ass-backwards into some production.
2:21Um and QJ
2:22>> by the way, which is exactly what he
2:23did. He fell ass-backwards.
2:26>> As a rookie.
2:27>> Yes, as a rookie.
2:28>> As a As a rookie. So it again, just to
2:30level-set if you weren't
2:32listening to us or following Reception
2:34Perception
2:36back in the day,
2:37Johnston was just again just a really
2:40poor performer like first percentile
2:43type stuff against against man coverage
2:45specifically, not much better against
2:48zone coverage. Like it was a It was a
2:49really, really poor rookie season. As
2:51James said, one of the worst in RP
2:54history. But he has definitely gotten
2:56better. You know, he's He's not gone,
2:58you know, full Davante Adams, right?
3:00He's the best example of a player that
3:03was one of the worst starting receivers
3:04in the NFL as a rookie in his second
3:06season and everything. He had a really
3:08disastrous second season, especially. Um
3:10went from like a first percentile
3:12performer to a 99th percentile
3:13performer. As I've said many, many
3:15times, I don't think that we're going to
3:16see that happen ever again. I don't
3:18think that's going to be like a That's
3:20That's a dream outcome. It's a fantasy
3:22outcome. You should probably just let go
3:23of it. But we have seen some guys go
3:26from
3:28bottom percentile performers into what I
3:30would say are like acceptable or even
3:32maybe solid starters.
3:34And I think Quentin Johnston is still a
3:36flawed player and we can lay out some of
3:38the flaws here in this profile, but I do
3:40think there are specific areas where he
3:41is legitimately good and is more of like
3:46a guy that is
3:47I think more than an acceptable starter
3:49at at point if maybe just not that kind
3:51of like, yes, solid, sturdy receiver.
3:54>> We talk about some of these, uh, overall
3:56general scores here, right? Like, he
3:57goes from 52% against man to 60, nearly
4:0061%
4:02uh, success rate versus man. He goes
4:04from 75% success rate versus zone to
4:07nearly 80% versus zone. He goes from 53%
4:11success rate against press to nearly 59%
4:15against press going from year to year.
4:17And if you're new to these numbers,
4:19those kind of jumps are hard. Those are
4:22difficult to do. Um, and so, kudos to
4:24him for obviously working on his craft,
4:27uh, and kudos to the coaching staff for,
4:28I think, getting him in much better
4:31positions to succeed, as well. If we're
4:34going on a route-by-route basis here,
4:36Matt, he was really strong on dig
4:39routes. 75% success rate on the dig, 64%
4:43on the year prior. So, a more than a 10%
4:46jump, uh, in terms of success rate on
4:48the dig route. That, to me, was his
4:51strongest route.
4:52Um, and and obviously, his most usable
4:55route, I think, in terms of just getting
4:57him in a position to succeed.
5:00>> Right. And if, again, we're kind of
5:01dialing back to that rookie season just
5:03to talk about some of the improvements
5:04here. I mean, you go look at that route
5:06tree from 2023, that bad boy is all red,
5:09except the screen. I mean, you know,
5:10it's a it's a first percentile success
5:13rate versus man, first percentile
5:14success rate versus zone. Uh, so,
5:16obviously, he's made a lot of
5:17improvements since then, specifically on
5:18some of the routes you're laying out
5:19here, like these what I would call
5:20breaking routes. Post, dig, out, uh,
5:24slant, solid success rate, flat route,
5:26uh, 100% success rate on a small sample.
5:28So, really, some of those more breaking
5:30routes, which, by the way,
5:32it's still not really like the heaviest
5:35diet of his route tree. And I think
5:38that's an important point to talk about
5:39here. Like, he's never been an
5:41above-average performer on the nine
5:43route, uh, in his NFL career. And while
5:47he um,
5:49it while he ran fewer nine routes last
5:52year, it was still at 18%
5:54nine route rate. Like he's still he's
5:56still kind of used as a vertical X
5:59receiver. And I personally would like to
6:03see QJ moved more to like a Z receiver
6:06position. You know, there's part of me
6:08that thinks like if he was used in the
6:10way that Rashee Rice is used by the
6:12Kansas City Chiefs, I think he'd
6:14actually really cook in that role. And I
6:16actually wrote that in his second year
6:18profile
6:19for Quentin Johnston. I think he'd be
6:21really good in that role. There's some
6:22differences in their games, but I also
6:24think there's a lot of similarities. If
6:26you look at Quentin Johnston and Rashee
6:27Rice in reception perception, and I know
6:29that would sound crazy if you looked at
6:31like their production, especially on
6:32like an efficiency basis per route and
6:34everything. But you got to also note
6:37that Quentin Johnston again still in
6:38year three
6:40was not used as a flanker at all. He was
6:42on the line of scrimmage for 80.6% of
6:44his sample snaps. He lined up outside on
6:4683.5%.
6:48So he was still pretty close to like an
6:49exclusive X receiver. And my guess is
6:52that he will be used in that capacity
6:54once again by Mike McDaniel. I don't
6:57think that we will see like I think Trey
6:59Harris maybe could come in and be an X
7:01in 11 personnel and move QJ around, but
7:05um I think it's going to be and we've
7:06talked about this with Ladd McConkey.
7:07It's going to be a very heavy personnel
7:09based offense. They they signed David
7:11Njoku. They signed Charlie Kolar. They
7:13have Arionda Gadsden. They signed a
7:14fullback. We've gone on and on about the
7:16Chargers likely increase in heavy
7:18personnel. So my guess is that in two
7:21receiver sets, it'll look pretty similar
7:23to how the Dolphins used Tyreek Hill and
7:26Jaylen Waddle. And Tyreek Hill was like
7:29the move around guy. And I think Ladd
7:30McConkey's going to be the move around
7:32guy. There's really no reason that he at
7:33his size needs to be an X receiver, even
7:35though he's a good press coverage
7:36receiver. And that will leave Quentin
7:39Johnston to kind of be in the role that
7:42Jaylen Waddle, who has been, as we've
7:44discussed with Waddle many times over
7:46the years,
7:47people don't realize he's mostly been an
7:48outside on ball receiver. And I think
7:50Quentin Johnston will be the outside on
7:51ball receiver. But I So, the the
7:53pre-snap deployment won't change very
7:55much, but where I do think we will see
7:58a significant change potentially for our
8:01guy Quentin Johnston here,
8:03I think his route tree is going to look
8:05really different this year. Like the way
8:07the way that his routes will uncurl from
8:10like a usage standpoint cuz if you look
8:12at Quentin Johnston's route percentage
8:14chart
8:15from 2025,
8:17and then you look at Jaylen Waddle's
8:20route percentage chart from 2025,
8:21they're very different. And we talked
8:25about the routes where Quentin Johnston
8:27is strongest, the routes where he is
8:29weakest from a relative standpoint, the
8:31nine route we
8:32just talked about that, the curl route,
8:34and the comeback route, which are pretty
8:36much like straight-line X receiver
8:38routes. Where if you're going to run
8:39those routes, you got to be really good
8:41technically, you got to be a good route
8:42runner, and I I still think Quentin
8:43Johnston's not a good technical route
8:45runner at this point. I I don't know if
8:46he ever will be.
8:48But if you look at Jaylen Waddle's route
8:49percentage chart, the only three routes
8:51where he was below the NFL average,
8:54curl, nine, comeback. Like the routes he
8:57runs a lot are slants, outs, digs,
9:01flats. That's Those are the routes where
9:03QJ actually is good. Like so, I think
9:05his
9:06route diet will change in Mike
9:08McDaniel's offense, and I think that
9:10will actually potentially improve his
9:13overall success rates as he goes into
9:15year number four.
9:16>> Yeah, you talk about that slant route.
9:17He's been strong for
9:19on the slant for a number of years now.
9:2183% success rate on the slant in 2024,
9:26and a slight dip here in 2025, but I
9:28think still pretty good at 77.6%.
9:31Um and I think when you go back
9:32collegiately, I thought the slant route
9:34was really where he made a lot of his
9:36hay, only because when you get this guy
9:39going horizontally
9:40and away from defenders and not having
9:43to think about, you know, tracking the
9:44football, uh that's really where he was
9:47at his strongest, right? Um going back
9:50to when you compare some of these 2024
9:52numbers to 2025, you talk about
9:55how he improved dramatically. Uh at
9:57least we talked about the dig route, but
9:59as Matt mentioned the the post route, I
10:01mean, goodness gracious. And look, the
10:03the sample size is a lot smaller. He
10:05didn't run a ton of post routes, but
10:07still going from 54% um success rate on
10:10the post, which is a horrible number,
10:13to then posting a 77% success rate on
10:17the post in 2025, a really good number,
10:20um I think that just speaks to and it
10:23speaks very loudly to the improvements
10:26that Quentin Johnston has used to kind
10:28of sort of use his, you know, um
10:30outbreak or inbreaking um techniques and
10:34and try to get open as an inbreaker. So,
10:36I don't know, man.
10:37Look, I'm still very much not um in on
10:40the QJ business, um but that being said,
10:43that being [clears throat] said, there's
10:44no question. There is no question he has
10:47improved as a player and your um and
10:50your, you know, profiles, I think, have
10:52shown that perfectly.
10:54>> Yeah, and I think again, it's it's what
10:56it what is being in on the Quentin
10:58Johnston business. I I get that's like
11:00kind of a relative term.
11:02>> Sure.
11:03>> And like what are the expectations
11:04there?
11:05I will just say from like a from a
11:07fantasy standpoint, if you're if we're
11:09like setting up expectations from He
11:10right now consensus ADP-wise on Fantasy
11:13Pros is the wide receiver 41
11:16in half PPR scoring. So, it's not like
11:18people are expecting him to come in here
11:19and be, you know, a stud this year or
11:21anything like that, right? But I think
11:23he could outkick that. Like I think he
11:25could produce
11:26>> Mhm.
11:27>> better than those numbers, mostly
11:28because of his own individual
11:30improvement, but also the offensive
11:32environment, which I think suits his
11:34skills well with all the breaking routes
11:36and yards after catch stuff. Like
11:38>> Yeah.
11:38>> We got to remember with Quentin Johnston
11:40um last year was really the first year
11:42that he didn't he wasn't like
11:44consistently haunted by drops and and
11:46everything. Um actually his drop rate
11:48was pretty low last year. He he didn't
11:50have He still is going to
11:52He had like an average-ish contested
11:53catch rate. I think he will always
11:55struggle a little bit in that way, which
11:57I haven't said this on this this
11:59particular show, but I have said this
12:00over the years that I think Quentin
12:02Johnston was really set up to fail in
12:03his rookie year. Like as as we're we're
12:05talking about his rookie year being so
12:06bad, I think he also was put in a
12:09horrendous position. Like I have no idea
12:11I have no idea what the Chargers thought
12:13they were scouting in I mean Quentin
12:16Johnston and then what he was
12:17I I like think it was if we're being
12:19generous to the Chargers at that point,
12:21they they were like, well, we can
12:23develop him slowly because we have Mike
12:25Williams as an X receiver. It's like,
12:27well, Mike Williams gets hurt all the
12:28time and guess what? He got hurt like in
12:29four
12:29>> Yeah.
12:30>> into that rookie season. So QJ had to be
12:32a vertical X receiver and track the
12:33football over his shoulder, which he's
12:35never been good at, but what he was good
12:36at in college was some of the breaking
12:37routes and yards after catch, which I
12:39think is where Mike McDaniel will um
12:42kind of let him be used. And if I could
12:45make like a comparison to like a like an
12:47outcome standpoint um
12:50for him and I this came to me. I was
12:52just thinking about like what could type
12:53of year could Quentin Johnston have? Do
12:54you remember
12:56with the Titans in 2020,
12:58Corey Davis who look, very similar to
13:01QJ. I think was a disappointing
13:03disappointing first-round pick, but
13:05turned into
13:06like a solid starting receiver for a
13:08stretch. He wasn't completely worthless.
13:11He just wasn't worth the fifth overall
13:13pick. And I think Quentin Johnston
13:15probably is still a disappointing
13:17first-round pick, but is not a is is
13:20shouldn't no longer be discussed as some
13:22kind of like worthless player. And
13:24frankly, I I have that going into last
13:26year for him.
13:27But again, Corey Davis that year, him
13:29and A.J. Brown were both top five in the
13:32NFL in yards per route run that season.
13:35Uh and
13:36A.J. Brown was obviously higher, Corey
13:38Davis was uh right behind him. And Corey
13:40Davis I think had like 10.7 yards per
13:42target that year. He made a lot of
13:45efficient plays on lower volume for the
13:47Titans that year because the Titans were
13:4931st in 11 personnel rate with 39.3% in
13:532020. Which I think is kind of what this
13:55Chargers team is going to look like with
13:57all the fullback like the fullback and
13:59the the the the tight ends and
14:00everything. So,
14:02yeah. I mean, I I do think that's kind
14:05of a similar season that QJ could have.
14:06Like 900-ish yards, a good amount of
14:09touchdowns, kind of living off big
14:11plays. He probably always will be like a
14:13volatile player. That was the arc when
14:15we discussed him as a prospect. That was
14:16the archetype of prospect he belonged
14:18in. Like the volatile boundary big play
14:20receiver. I kind of think that's always
14:21who he's going to be as long as he's
14:23used in this X receiver role.
14:25But yeah, that's sort of a career
14:26outcome uh kind of standpoint for a for
14:29for Quentin Johnston, that 2020 Corey
14:32Davis season. And by the way, shoutout
14:34to our player comparison tool, one of
14:36the player comps that shows up for
14:38Quentin Johnston. Even before I knew
14:39this, by the way. Yeah. It shows up as
14:42Corey Davis as one of the comparable
14:43players. So, I do think that's kind of
14:44an outcome uh for him that could happen
14:46here.
