From the episode
He's not been good this year. He's had 10 catches for 127 yards, pretty much a non-factor through three games. But he's still playing 87% of the snaps...Last two years, Jamison never had more than three straight games below 66. That's the old leg. He's due...70 yards, almost two to one odds. When he has those games of 66 yards or better, he almost always gets a touchdown.
STACKED’s take
Williams' bimodal outcomes and three-game under streak make 70+ yards vs. injured Panthers secondary a value play.
Williams has played 87% of snaps through three games despite 10 catches for 127 yards; he shows a bimodal outcome pattern—either invisible (under 66 yards, 43 or below last year) or explosive (66+ yards in 10 games last year with 7 touchdowns, averaging 97 yards). Against Carolina's depleted secondary (both starting cornerbacks JC Horn and Mike Jackson out), Williams is due for a breakout; he's never had more than three straight games below 66 yards in the last two seasons and is currently at three straight. The source targets 70+ yards at +194 odds, noting that when he hits 66+ yards, he has a touchdown in all but one game last year (14 of 15 games), and all seven 700-yard games came with touchdowns, making 100 yards and a touchdown at 10-to-1 odds underpriced.
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