The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast

Winston is the Ravens' quarterback laying double digits against the Giants in Week 4.

Jones is the Giants' quarterback playing in London against the Ravens as a favorite, noted in the context of the Week 4 four-square parlay.

Robinson is expected to run all over the Saints' defense in Week 4; the source likes the Falcons to potentially win that matchup.

JSN is the primary offensive weapon for Seattle against the Chargers; the source notes that the Chargers' defense last year allowed only two receivers to go over 100 yards and had the biggest games against big physical receivers like A.J. Brown, which is not JSN's game. If JSN can be kept in check, Seattle's offense won't run away with the game.

Price is fumbling every game for Seattle; the Seahawks are third-worst by DVOA in rushing the football, limiting his effectiveness.

Daniels is the undrafted rookie quarterback for the Chargers, noted in the context of the team's 0-3 record and underdog status against Seattle.

Becker, a second-round Nebraska blocking tight end, has been effective in Jacksonville's heavy two-tight-end sets, improving the run game; he's played significant snaps despite one catch in his NFL career. The Bengals allowed 16 tight-end touchdowns last year (most in the league), including to blocking tight ends like Josh Oliver, Brock Wright, Darnell Washington, and Jackson Haas—Becker's archetype. With Jacksonville's offensive line concerns against Cincinnati's improved defensive line, Becker will be on the field blocking, creating a touchdown opportunity at 12-to-1 odds at DraftKings; the source also targets first touchdown at 65-to-1.

Williams has played 87% of snaps through three games despite 10 catches for 127 yards; he shows a bimodal outcome pattern—either invisible (under 66 yards, 43 or below last year) or explosive (66+ yards in 10 games last year with 7 touchdowns, averaging 97 yards). Against Carolina's depleted secondary (both starting cornerbacks JC Horn and Mike Jackson out), Williams is due for a breakout; he's never had more than three straight games below 66 yards in the last two seasons and is currently at three straight. The source targets 70+ yards at +194 odds, noting that when he hits 66+ yards, he has a touchdown in all but one game last year (14 of 15 games), and all seven 700-yard games came with touchdowns, making 100 yards and a touchdown at 10-to-1 odds underpriced.

Ravens have a 100% hit rate to cover teaser legs with Lamar; Baltimore's last 15 wins include 12 by 13+ points, supporting a floor of 13.5-point spreads against the Titans.

The source strongly favors Lamar Jackson and the Ravens against the Titans, citing dominant historical performance in the home favorite role. As a home favorite of over 9 points, Lamar Jackson is undefeated 12-0 straight up, winning by an average of 17 points per game, and 8-4 ATS. He has never won a game by less than 6 points in that spot. Baltimore's last 15 wins include 12 by 13 points or more. The source states: 'Lamar Jackson as home favorite of over nine points undefeated 12 and 0. Straight up winning by 17 points a game, eight and four ATS. He's never won a game by less than a six in that spot.' The source makes Ravens minus 11.5 and believes the line is light, estimating it should be over 14 points.

The source likes Josh Downs as a receiver prop against Washington in the Colts-Commanders game. Downs is described as an 'advanced metrics darling' who is now 'finally kind of shining' after Pittman is gone and Pierce is out; he is the receiver one. In his last two games, Downs had 9 and 11 targets, with 7 catches for 72 yards and 5 catches for 77 yards—described as 'nothing great, just solid, just steady.' The source notes Washington has allowed the most fantasy points to receivers so far this year, with JSN and CD Lamb each scoring twice over 120 yards, and Devante Smith having a nice game. The source likes over 62.5 receiving yards at DraftKings, stating: 'Josh Downs is not those guys. It doesn't have to be. It's just over 62 and a half receiving yards at DraftKings as well.'

The source identifies Malik Nabers as a favorable matchup against the Cardinals defense, which is described as 'the worst unit on the field so far by the numbers.' The source states: 'I like Malik Nabors here. I think against backup corners, he could have a good spot here.' This is in the context of the Giants playing the Cardinals, with the Giants' backup quarterback Jameis Winston starting due to J.J. McCarthy's injury.

The source expresses skepticism about Saquon Barkley's ability to produce long runs against the Rams, citing historical context and recent defensive performance. Two years ago, the Eagles beat the Rams twice (regular season and playoffs) with 599 rushing yards combined, and Barkley had runs of 62, 70, 72, and 78 yards. However, last year when Barkley played the Rams again, his longest run was 12 yards and the Eagles finished under 100 rushing yards. The Rams allowed only three running back runs over 25 yards all of last season. The source states: 'I don't think this bet's going to hit, Matt.' Instead of betting over 15.5 rushing yards, the source prefers a home-run swing: 30 yards at +450 or 50 yards at 10-to-1, betting that if Barkley breaks out, he goes deep.

The source identifies Puka Nakua as a high-volume pass-catcher with strong historical production; he had 10 catches seven times last season and 11 catches for 112 yards against the Eagles last year. The source likes escalating catch props starting at over 6.5 catches (+216 at DraftKings), escalating to 8+ catches, 9+ at 4-to-1, 10+ at 7-to-1, 12+ at 17-to-1, and 13+ at 26-to-1. The source notes these prices are mispriced and that Nakua can catch so many passes in a game; even the 12-catch line (which he has hit four times) is unlikely to be offered at this price again. The source explicitly states: 'Puka over six and a half catches all the way up.'

Nakua is positioned for strong production against Philadelphia's defense despite a groin injury discount on his line. Historically, in four matchups against the Eagles, Nakua averaged 13-15 targets per game and 8.3 receptions per game. His receptions line is discounted to 6.5 (down from 7.5 in week one) at plus 123 over, and the source trusts that if Nakua plays, he will be fully productive (not a decoy) because groin injuries typically don't affect production once a player returns. The source likes escalators: 8+ catches at plus 216, 9+ at 4-to-1, and 10+ at 7-to-1.

Watson has been catching a lot of touchdowns and is one of the Packers' primary receivers alongside Matthew Golden in their pass-heavy offense. The source notes Watson and Golden have been 'really good' this season as Love is throwing more frequently.

Lloyd's snap count, carries, and yards have declined over three straight games, dropping to six and four carries in the last two games as his role is being split with Caleb Johnson and Chris Brooks on passing downs. The source likes Lloyd to go under 8.5 rushing attempts (minus 122 at DraftKings) because the Packers cannot run the ball effectively against Tampa Bay's strong run defense (seventh in DVOA), and all three Packers running backs combined to go under this line last week.

Love is positioned for a strong passing performance against Tampa Bay's weak secondary; the Buccaneers allow the sixth most passing yards (median 266 yards), and Love's line sits at 241.5 yards. Love has already posted two of his seven best career passing games this season (312, 387 yards), and the Packers are playing faster and passing more this year. The source likes over 241.5 passing yards and escalators to 300 yards (plus 340), 350 yards (plus 1080), and 400 yards (plus 1100), betting that Love will have to throw frequently since the Packers cannot run the ball effectively.

Baker Mayfield is noted as being replaced by undrafted free agent Jalen Daniels as the starting quarterback for Week 4, providing context for Daniels' debut and rushing upside expectations.

Luther Burden is noted as playing fewer snaps than Kalief Raymond in their shared offense, per Grant Neifer's analysis; this snap share disadvantage is cited as evidence that Raymond's role is undervalued at plus 380 odds for a touchdown.

Trey McBride is identified as one of only four players with four or more red zone targets through Week 4, alongside Christian Watson, Jackson Smith-Njigba, and Juwan Johnson; this metric is cited as context for tight end and receiver red zone opportunity analysis.

Christian Watson is identified as one of only four players with four or more red zone targets through Week 4, alongside Trey McBride, Jackson Smith-Njigba, and Juwan Johnson; this metric is cited as context for tight end and receiver red zone opportunity analysis.

Sean Koerner targets Jalen Hurts at plus 175 or better for a touchdown, describing him as a 'perennial touchdown threat' in the Eagles offense; Koerner notes Hurts scored last week and expects his touchdown production to continue throughout the season, making the price attractive.

Grant Neifer targets Kalief Raymond at plus 380 for a touchdown, arguing his role in the offense is 'absolutely ridiculous,' playing more snaps than Luther Burden and receiving heavy targets; Neifer notes if Keenum starts, their strong rapport from last week should continue, and views the line as mispriced.

Sean Koerner targets Jalen Daniels (undrafted free agent starting in place of Baker Mayfield) at plus 390 for a touchdown in his NFL debut, citing massive rushing upside and expectation that Daniels will lean into the rushing game early in his debut until gaining comfort against starting NFL defenses.

Sean Koerner targets Noah Fant at plus 500 for a touchdown in Monday Night Football (Falcons-Saints), noting Fant has three touchdowns this season alongside Juwan Johnson; Koerner attributes elevated Saints tight end touchdown upside to Taysom Hill's departure, which removes red zone snap-stealing and frees up more opportunities for Fant in red zone packages.

Grant Neifer targets Juwan Johnson at plus 230 for a touchdown in Monday Night Football (Falcons-Saints), citing six red zone targets and three touchdowns through the season; Neifer argues the volume is 'far too good to have him at odds this high' and expects his odds to decline as his role continues, making the current price a buy-in opportunity.

Sean Koerner explicitly dismisses Drake London, stating he is 'done with Drake London forever' after London 'pretty much cost me two touchdowns last week when he played,' indicating strong negative sentiment on the Falcons receiver's reliability and performance.

Sean Koerner targets Kyle Pitts at plus 450 odds for a touchdown in Monday Night Football (Falcons-Saints), citing his high route volume and size profile as reasons he must be involved in the offense for Atlanta to succeed; Koerner explicitly dismisses Drake London and expresses conviction in Pitts' involvement.

Chargers wide receiver who has been dropping the ball; if he continues to drop passes, it could open up opportunities for other receivers like Trey Harris.

Priced at plus 550 for a touchdown prop; Sean Koerner targets him on the Chargers side; Harris is the clear number three wide receiver but is expected to get a boost because the Chargers tight end room is completely decimated; there is a chance if Quentin Johnson continues to drop the ball, Harris could see increased opportunities.

Around 22-to-1 odds; cashed for Sean Koerner last week; mentioned as an example of the deep value available in Sean Payton's Broncos offense for touchdown props.

Priced at plus 230 to plus 240 for a touchdown prop; Sean Koerner identifies him as the wide receiver one in the Broncos offense; he plays the most snaps and runs the most routes; he is the only Bronco to see both a red zone target and an end zone target in each game through three weeks; he almost scored in week three versus the Rams; Koerner expects him to be on the field a lot with one to two design throws into the end zone.

Priced at minus 300 for a touchdown prop; Sean Koerner explicitly avoids this option, stating 'I don't want to take Christian McCaffrey at minus 300,' preferring the value of Luke Farrell instead.

Priced at plus 150 for a touchdown prop; Sean Koerner explicitly avoids this option, stating 'I don't want to take Debo Samuel at plus 150,' preferring the value of Luke Farrell instead.

Has looked great through three games but Sean Koerner expresses concern about potential overuse given his injury history from last year; this could lead to increased snap share for backup tight ends like Luke Farrell.

Around 11-to-1 odds; has taken over the tight end two spot from Jake Tongass; played the second-most snaps of any 49ers tight end; Sean Koerner targets him as a value play because he may need to be on the field more to help block given George Kittle's injury history and the Broncos' pass rush threat; preferred over expensive 49ers options like Debo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey.

Offered at plus 370 odds for a touchdown prop; mentioned alongside other value spots in the slate.

Offered at plus 470 odds for a touchdown prop; Sean Koerner identifies as a nice spot.

Johnston is mentioned in the context of short yardage opportunities for the Steelers, though the speaker wouldn't be shocked if Najee Harris gets the short yardage touchdown instead.