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UFC Fight Night Betting Preview | Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.

45 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 21, 2026
Published
Fri, August 21, 2026
1
Player insights
1
Players mentioned
Topics
Harry Douglas
Player analysis

Player insights

1

Harry Douglas

NegativeProjection31:58

Hoda Kotb. You views Larry Douglas as an aggressive finisher but notes that his decision prop (currently 6-to-1) is undervalued compared to Hoda Kotb. You's 4-to-1 projection. Hoda Kotb. You would consider a small bet down to 5-to-1.

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Episode Transcript

596
0:00you hear the new episode of the Hey Jonas podcast.
0:03We are at D23, so we'll see who stops by.
0:06The cast of Frozen stopped by. Kristen Bell, Josh Gad, and Idina Menzel.
0:10I auditioned for Frozen. What? For Kristoff. They said, okay, what are you going to be singing today?
0:15I said, I don't know. That must have been why you didn't get it.
0:20Oh, you probably won. Plus, John Stamos, Hayden Christensen from Star Wars, and more.
0:24And I guess I can share that, uh, no way.
0:27Listen to the latest episode of Hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
0:33Hey, this is Hayes Davenport. And Sean Clements. We host the podcast, Hollywood Handbook.
0:37Each week, we talk to someone in show business and try to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us.
0:45Everyone has a good time, and no one gets mad at their publicist for letting them do our show.
0:51We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman, Adam Scott, Danny McBride, Ben Stiller, and a lot of other big
0:57shots that wouldn't be where they are without us.
1:00Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:05On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman.
1:10I can wait four hours for the next bus, or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle.
1:16I chose option B. I'm Julie Pinheiro, and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first.
1:24I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility.
1:28Listen to Solita on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:33I'm Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb.
1:37You know, I'm always searching for inspiration and useful tools to maximize joy.
1:41Like when my friend Henry Winkler offered advice to aspiring actors and really anybody hoping to stand out.
1:46You're not hired just to fill time and space.
1:49You're hired to fill the space with you. Listen to Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
1:57Our hometown is not a test tube. 90 miles northeast of Nashville, a battle for the future of America plays out in one small town.
2:05Developers with right-wing ties have purchased hundreds of acres of land.
2:08We need cities on a shining hill. This is Our Town, a podcast about what happens when a small town becomes the
2:15site of a social experiment and fights back. Guess you didn't move in on a bunch of dumb hillbillies now, did you?
2:21Listen to Our Town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
2:26The Action Network Podcast. Podcast. Podcast. If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these people over in a second.
2:32Oh! Hello, and welcome to the Action Network Podcast.
2:35This is your UFC betting preview. I'm Sean Zerula, joined today by Billy Ward to help you break down a 13-fight card
2:42for UFC Sacramento, give you our best bets, favorite underdogs, top props, and more.
2:46If you'd like to tell us some of the best that we discuss on today's show, make sure to find the quick
2:53slip link both in the podcast and video description, or visit actionnetwork.com slash betnow.
2:5713-fight card, as I said, from Sacramento. Prelims, 5 p.m.
3:00Main card, 8 p.m. from the Golden One Center in Sacramento, California.
3:04Main event, Anthony Fluffy Hernandez, about minus 185, going up against Gregory Hobo Cop Rodriguez.
3:08Five-round middleweight bout. I like Hernandez to get over three and a half takedowns here.
3:13That is the bet that I landed on in terms of my best bet for this fight.
3:18I do also like his late-round props, as I do in any of his fights.
3:2214-to-1 round four, 16-to-1 round five. Billy would be jumping in on a live play as well.
3:28He just thinks that Hobo Cop can get the finish early, as most analysts would agree, breaking this fight down, it does
3:34generally seem like Hobo Cop finds the early finish.
3:37And if he does not, he may get cooked by Hernandez in terms of the pace late.
3:42Only other time, I believe, that he went into a main event.
3:46Got finished in the fourth round by Jared Cannoneer.
3:48Kind of gassed himself out, using too much energy early.
3:51I do have an inclination going into this fight that he's going to conserve his energy a little bit better.
3:58Is coming in on a three-fight winning streak since that main event loss.
4:01Got that main event experience. I just think we will see slightly better pacing from him.
4:06But, given the physique, the body type that he has, at 185 pounds, how much weight he must cut to get there.
4:13He just doesn't seem like the type of guy who's going to be able to sustain his style for 25 minutes.
4:19And against the flight, in a flight, against Fluffy Hernandez, who is going to push a pace and grapple you a lot.
4:26And force you to counter grapple. You're going to tie her out.
4:30Almost guaranteed, unless you're able to finish him first.
4:32So, Hernandez, over three and a half takedowns, minus 115.
4:35Hobo Cop, great jiu-jitsu player. Better offensively, I think he may be able to get the hell down a little bit.
4:42But, also, he's going to be able to scramble up, get back to his feet.
4:46And Hernandez, hopefully, takes him right back down and gets us over that three and a half number.
4:52I projected it closer to five. So, I like it up to four and a half at minus 115.
4:58And then, again, those late round props. 12-1 round four.
5:0115-1 or 16-1 round five. In addition to a live bet, probably after round one or during round two.
5:06Billy, as I said, you're taking the early looks on Hobo Cop.
5:10Round one, two, or three is plus 250. You could also, same-game parlay that.
5:14Under two and a half, under one and a half.
5:17Variety of different ways. And then, you're going to roll that into a live angle on Fluffy.
5:22What's the inflection point in terms of the minute that you're looking to enter in on this fight live?
5:28And then, how do you break this down if it does go all 25 minutes?
5:33Yeah, I mean, the dream scenario on when to enter is when Hobo Cop lands a knockdown and Fluffy's price spikes, right?
5:39Like, if and when that happens, that's the dream scenario.
5:42I don't know that it will. I actually originally came into this thinking I'd be looking for Hobo Cop by knockout.
5:49But the one, two, and three is a better price most places than his knockout prop.
5:54And I think his odds of getting a submission in the first three rounds, given his Jiu-Jitsu experience, is considerably higher than
6:00a fourth or fifth round knockout against a guy like Fluffy Hernandez.
6:04You can pace yourself all you want or try to pace yourself all you want.
6:08He won't let you. Like, there's guys I grapple with at the gym all the time, some of the younger kids.
6:15Like, I'm going to take it easy. I'm going to be patient.
6:18They don't give you that option because they're just doing stuff all the time.
6:23And if you don't respond to it, you're going to lose.
6:26So, you have to move. You have to chase, whatever.
6:29Fluffy Hernandez, perfect example that not a guy is going to let you have it.
6:34The round props are interesting. I'm looking at his round one prop is plus 600.
6:38Two and three are both plus 550. So, I really like that every time we get a Fluffy fight, they do, like, the inverse stoppage odds.
6:46Normally, it goes higher each round, but he gets kind of an inverse bell curve with where they think it's going to happen, which is true.
6:54Yeah, I didn't spend too much time breaking this one down.
6:57It seems a fairly straightforward, you know, one guy early, one guy late kind of thing.
7:02I'm glad you mentioned the size disparity. With this being in California, we will get their actual weights a couple days after
7:09the fight because California weighs the guy in the next day.
7:12I don't think Fluffy cuts a lot of weight.
7:15Like, I bet he could probably make 170. So, it'll be interesting to see, you know, if he shows up low 190s
7:21and Rodriguez is like 210 or something would probably be what I would guess we're going to see.
7:27Do like the takedown angle, though. I mean, if Hernandez is going to win late, he's going to get multiple takedowns because
7:34if he just stands in front of Popo Copo, he'll get caught at some point.
7:38So, those correlate pretty nicely. Thought we both had that correlated significant strike play on Gary last week with him making it
7:45a close fight, and he managed to make it a close fight without really landing any strikes, as frustrating as that was.
7:51But I think it's a similar situation here where if our general read is right, that takedown prop is a good way to do it.
7:59Yeah, two more jabs from Gary in each round.
8:02That prop would have cashed, unfortunately. Just kind of stood at Islam or stared at Islam for the first 10 minutes of that fight.
8:09He was in that fight. That was a competitive fight.
8:12I think somebody's going to beat Islam at some point.
8:15I think it's going to be one of the two guys who were sitting cage side watching that bout, Michael Morales and Carlos Proftas, on Saturday.
8:23I'd like to see them two fight potentially for a number one contender bout.
8:27So, that being said, Vito Petrino, heavyweight bout going up against Sergei Spivak, former light heavyweight Vito Petrino.
8:33This is our fight of the night in the co-main event.
8:36It's listed as five rounds. I don't believe that is the case.
8:40I have two angles here that I like. Petrino by KO or Spivak by sub.
8:44I like to tend inside the distance, but I don't show value on the ITB prop or the unders.
8:50I do show individual value on those two finished props.
8:53There are books who let you play the double chance with one fighter by one method, the other fighter by another method.
9:00So, I might try to see if that number is actionable.
9:03Again, Petrino KO or Spivak by sub. The prop that I like here, Petrino under 39.5, significant strikes.
9:08If he's landing that frequently on Spivak, I think he's going to hurt Spivak and finish up.
9:14So, kind of correlated to the KO prop, the under for Petrino.
9:17Or, he could just get out grappled or they could spend a lot of time grappling with one another and get tied
9:24up, have a boring heavyweight fight where neither of them really clear 30 significant strikes.
9:28Billy, you're going with Petrino at minus 140 or alternatively, same price range, Spivak under one and a half takedowns at minus 135.
9:35Also curious about your thoughts on that Petrino under 39.5 strikes bet.
9:39And then how you see this one playing out.
9:42Yeah, 100% agree with the strikes where just he won't need that many.
9:46So, either he doesn't land them or he does land them and Spivak falls down.
9:50So, yeah, really like that one. Interesting angle here.
9:53Petrino is bigger or has weighed in at a heavier weight than like anti-Delizia who Spivak just fought.
9:58But, is clearly like faster and more athletic than most heavyweights.
10:02So, I'm not really that worried. Even though he's the former light heavyweight.
10:06Like, he's going to be effectively the same size as Spivak.
10:09And faster and able to move better. Has pretty good grappling defense, generally.
10:13Takedown defense. But, what really did it for me is I wanted to bet Petrino.
10:17And then I looked at Spivak's record. He is 6-1 in fights where he lands two or more takedowns.
10:23His under one and a half takedown is a slightly better price than Petrino's money line.
10:28So, assuming you can get down a similar amount on both of those.
10:32It makes more sense to take the under takedown.
10:35He could submit him with the first takedown. Right?
10:37And still cash the takedowns. But not the money line.
10:40And I think if he gets two takedowns. That means he's won two rounds.
10:45So, the only way for Petrino to win is a third round knockout or finish.
10:49Which is in his back. Right? He's a hard hitter.
10:52He throws a lot. He's dynamic. But, yeah. I don't think he's ever been.
10:57He got taken down multiple times by Anton Tercali in his UFC debut.
11:00Never since then. 79% takedown defense. We got a bigger cage.
11:04He's faster. He's going to move. He can grapple a little bit himself.
11:08I don't think we see two. Because, one, we might get a little bit of a.
11:13Or, we might get a finish before that. But, two, if he does.
11:17Because, Spivak is almost certainly going to win. And I'd rather have the minus 135 lose than the minus 140 lose.
11:23So, if you like the Petrino side. I think this is just a slightly better way to go about it.
11:29Gives you a little bit more outs at a better price.
11:32With all that said. We've got Dan Tom breaking this one down.
11:36So, look out for that. Full fight preview. I pivoted off to a different fight this week.
11:41Wondering if the fight you pivoted off to. Was Ryan here to Ritter at about minus 400.
11:46Going up against Roman De Leeds. I didn't show much money line value for this week.
11:51A small edge did pop up. On De Leeds.
11:54I make him about plus 290. His money line has come up to around plus 320.
11:59I'd want closer to plus 350. Before I jump in, in terms of playing him.
12:03But, trains with the guys at Extreme Couture. I know he is, you know, with a solid camp now.
12:09He's just giving him some amount of a game plan.
12:12Instead of just like coming into the cage. And looking for the most random, awkward submissions.
12:17From strange angles. You could have possibly seen from a fighter.
12:20In terms of durability, I think I prefer his durability.
12:23His heart to RDR. RDR took a lot of damage.
12:26So, I'm like quitting a fight. Very awkwardly. Last year.
12:29Both of these guys on the older side. But, given the price range.
12:33I just think the leads or pass. Is the way you have to go about this one.
12:38Again, I want closer to plus 350. In order to play it.
12:42I just don't see RDR covering. A minus 400 price tag.
12:45In this fight. The lead is a very awkward guy to fight.
12:49Seems like most fighters. Especially early. Have trouble pulling away from him.
12:53Is this a fight you're breaking down this week, Billy?
12:56If not. Or whether it is. Or whether it isn't.
12:59Curious of your thoughts. It is not. Johnny Football snagged this one before I could.
13:03I actually wanted this one. I thought this would be.
13:06What I'm the most interested. But no. I got beaten to the punch.
13:10I like to let those guys choose. Before I take whatever's left over.
13:14Do have a bet on this though. I am taking RDR over two and a half takedowns at plus 120.
13:20That's at DraftKings. I will say check out some of the other sites.
13:24Because we had just wild variance in the line on Jillian Robertson last week.
13:28Other books might have a different line. That you can either just middle or go for.
13:33I like that because RDR is going to get a bunch in the beginning.
13:37Roman Delizze does not defend takedowns. Because he doesn't mind grappling.
13:41What he does do really well. And we've seen him do it a bunch of times.
13:46Is roll under into that K guard series. Like he's going to attack a leg.
13:50But he just uses that to stand up. Which is 100% the correct way to use that Jiu Jitsu ability.
13:56In an MMA fight. Unless you're Walter Walker. The leg lock probability is so low.
14:01That it makes sense to get back up. But for however long RDR still has gas.
14:06He's just going to kind of lunge after you again.
14:09Get punched in the face a few times. And trip you one more time.
14:13And continue to get those takedowns. So I think that's a really good angle.
14:17Where if you. You can still cash Delizze winning.
14:20Like it would not shock me. If then Delizze in rounds 2 or 3.
14:24Stops those takedowns and beats them up. Or anything like that.
14:27Is worth pointing out. This one's at 205. They're both listed as middleweights.
14:31As their most recent fight. So they're both going up.
14:34I don't think it really matters. Probably slight advantage to RDR.
14:38Just because he has looked so bad. With all the weight he's cutting.
14:42But Delizze had fought previously at 205. Also a big guy with somewhat questionable cardio.
14:46At different points. So mostly a wash. And I wouldn't not take your underdog bet.
14:51Because of the weight difference. If that makes sense.
14:53No I agree. The switch to 205. I think certainly helps RDR.
14:57More than it helps Delizze. And helps his gas tank.
15:00Probably get through the 15 minute fight. I think also the time off.
15:04Probably helped him as well. Not cutting weight to make middleweight.
15:07I think that was part of the issue too.
15:10Like repeatedly cutting weight. To make middleweight multiple times.
15:13Within such a short span. I think kind of drained his overall physique.
15:17And gas tank. You got a couple dogs that you like here.
15:20On this card. Before we pivot to some props.
15:23First of which will be Wes Schultz. At about plus 145.
15:26Party time for Billy. On Saturday. Going up against Jackson McVay.
15:30At minus 180. I basically align with the projection.
15:33Or with the current market. For this fight. My projection aligns with the current market.
15:37For this fight. But I would lean towards Schultz.
15:40And Schultz by submission. If I was picking something blindly here.
15:43I think both of us would agree. He's been underrated by the market.
15:47And if I was handicapping this fight blindly. If you told me that somebody was minus 180.
15:52And somebody was plus 145. And I knew nothing about the fight.
15:56Other than my prior information on these guys. I would have assumed it was flipped.
16:00So I was a little surprised to see Wes Schultz is the underdog here.
16:05Billy you're going to take the dog's shot. My model telling me not to.
16:09But convince me why I should. I'm not going to have a super convincing case.
16:13I don't think either of these guys are very good.
16:16They are both good at something. And those are different things.
16:20Jackson McVay is a big powerful. Kind of awkward striker.
16:23You know southpaw. So he comes at a different angle.
16:26His opponents between. No all UFC. No contender series.
16:29His opponents have attempted four takedowns. Against him collectively.
16:31Sean. Do you want to guess how many times he's been taken down on those four attempts?
16:36I would assume all four. All four. He has not defended a single takedown.
16:41Three of those were by Zach Reese. Who's not like a great wrestler.
16:45He's a good grappler. He's not a great wrestler.
16:47Wes Schultz was a collegiate wrestler. Like that's the one thing he can do.
16:52Is shoot takedowns. And then try to submit you.
16:54So if there's a matchup. He's going to look good in it.
16:58Is this one. Provided he doesn't get knocked out first.
17:01If you were giving me plus 140 on Jackson McVay.
17:04Given some of the rumors of improvements I'm hearing about him.
17:07I'd probably take the plus 140 on the other side.
17:10But yeah I've got Wes Schultz at plus 140.
17:13And then I have a sprinkle on him by submission at plus 300.
17:17Is the best line I saw in that. Again if he's going to win that's probably how he does it.
17:23That's where most of his wins come from. He did drop Ben Johnson.
17:27But that was like a 37 year old dude who hadn't fought in a bunch of years.
17:32And was only there because it was Australia. So great for Wes Schultz to land that knockdown.
17:37I'm not projecting that as something he's going to do forward.
17:41And even when he knocked him down. He immediately jumped on a submission.
17:45So club and sub stays in play at plus 300.
17:48I think more likely than ground and pound finish.
17:50I think the easiest way I could summarize it.
17:53If you liked Jax McVay. Or if you liked Wes Schultz against Damian Pinas at about plus 190.
17:59You gotta like him against Jackson McVay. At plus 145.
18:02I think there's a gigantic gap in terms of danger from McVay to Pinas.
18:06Pinas kind of just like a souped up version of that.
18:09You're also going to take a shot on the biggest dog on the card.
18:13I believe not the biggest dog on the card.
18:16But the most biggest. The biggest reasonable price dog on the card.
18:20Because we didn't see Dustin Stoltz for his cash.
18:23In the plus 500 range. Last week. You're getting Jaisla Chavez here at about plus 410.
18:27Going up against Carly Judas. Chavez you're taking around plus 440.
18:31Curious where you like her down to. I would imagine around plus 400.
18:35And then how do you see this fight playing out?
18:38You think she's going to win a close decision?
18:40You really buried the lead there. Talking about Dustin Stoltz with Jeremiah Wells.
18:44Hit that ninja choke at plus 900. And I actually bet that one.
18:48So yeah. That was mostly a heart bet. Because I've got the personal history with Jeremiah Wells.
18:53He got you back for the Carlson Harris loss.
18:56That we had. No, we had against one another.
18:59He got the third round submission back for his record.
19:02Yeah, there we go. And you know, plus 900 makes up for a lot of misses.
19:07No, the logic here is this is basically a coin flip to go to a decision.
19:12And Jesse O'Shavez has all of the grappling upside in this fight.
19:15Carly Judas has been taken down in four or five appearances.
19:19Counting the contender series. Chavez has landed three takedowns against Eunice Dubin.
19:22Which, you know, isn't saying too much. But she might grapple here.
19:26When we have some of these close fights. If no one's getting a finish.
19:30And you consistently, or not consistently. But like clearly control from top position.
19:34That can sway some judges. I just believe it, you know, plus 400 or better.
19:39That's within the realm of judges. Just kind of giving it to you.
19:43Even if you maybe didn't deserve it. But so unless you think Judas finishes this fight.
19:47I think Chavez is worth a value just on that logic.
19:51Not that I'm. She's certainly not the better fighter.
19:53Nor am I that confident she's going to win.
19:56But at greater than four to one odds. Like we've seen enough judges shenanigans that.
20:01Who knows? Maybe Bruce Buffer will just read it wrong and give it to you as well.
20:06So if we think this goes to a decision.
20:09I want to be on the big plus money side.
20:12Yeah, not that I disagree from a money line perspective.
20:15In terms of my prop projections. I do make Judas minus money to win by decision.
20:19And you can get her at plus 120 to win by decision.
20:23I think I'd rather have that. Certainly than betting her money line.
20:27Just not sure if I want to go head to head with you on this fight.
20:32Obviously, I think she has some finishing upside. But she's also been a bit underwhelming.
20:36When she's had opportunities to finish opponents. Who I think were potentially weaker than Chavez.
20:41So Judas by decision would be my bet here.
20:43Billy going to take the underdog. What's your price start?
20:46Where's the where'd you stop? I don't know. It's only going the other way.
20:51So I don't think that really matters. But yeah, I mean try to get better than plus 400.
20:56It continues to move towards Charlie though. So I don't think we need to worry about it too much this week.
21:02That's my kind of unofficial plus 400 in general is my unofficial.
21:06Like this is where I'm willing to bet on judges shenanigans.
21:09Line too. For me. And that's not based on any like firm math or anything.
21:14But I feel like that when you get to that realm.
21:17That's where if you think it's going to be a decision.
21:21There's enough that can go wrong. Even if you don't deserve it.
21:24That it's worth taking a sprinkle I think. Especially in 125 pound women's fight.
21:29Where there's just less power in general. Less to separate them from one another.
21:33On the new podcast Solita. We share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman.
21:38I can wait four hours for the next bus.
21:40Or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle.
21:44I chose option B. I'm Julie Pinheiro. And I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first.
21:52I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita.
21:55Trading the pity for possibility. Every time I tried to be alone I kept meeting people.
22:00And they were like you smiled at us. Not a lot of people smile around here.
22:05It's when you're alone that you're most receptive to the world as it is.
22:09And not the lies you're sold about it. It can be a time where you push your limits.
22:14Change your mind. Or wake up to a new version of yourself.
22:18So whether you're a solo travel veteran. Or you're too nervous to book your first trip.
22:23I hope you listen to Solita. On the iHeartRadio app.
22:26Apple Podcasts. Or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Hoda Kotb.
22:29Host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb.
22:32If you know me. You know I'm always searching for inspiration.
22:35And useful tools to maximize joy. So this podcast lets us uncover those things together.
22:40Through meaningful conversations with fascinating people. Like when my friend Henry Winkler offered advice to aspiring actors.
22:45And really anybody hoping to stand out. You're not hired just to fill time and space.
22:50You're hired to fill the space with you. You have something in your guts.
22:54You go with it. And Shawn Johnson recalled the moment she realized her now husband Andrew.
22:59Andrew was the one. He was just so unapologetically himself.
23:02And knew nothing of Hollywood. He hadn't been on a plane before without his family.
23:06It was so pure. Listen to Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb.
23:10On the iHeartRadio app. Apple Podcasts. Or wherever you get your podcasts.
23:13Our town is small taters by most standards, right?
23:16But to the people who grew up here, it's everything.
23:19What happens when a quiet Tennessee town becomes the front line in a battle over the future of America?
23:25Developers with right-wing ties have purchased hundreds of acres of land in the area.
23:29The first thing you see when it pops up is pioneers in Appalachia.
23:33But they weren't just planting houses. We need cities on a shining hill that exemplify and embody the Christian way of life.
23:40Stop right there. Is that normal? A podcast about what happens when a small town becomes the site of a social experiment.
23:46God need men to rule. Great. And decides to fight back.
23:50Do not use my hard work to sell your bulls**t.
23:53They're not just opposing what's being planned for here.
23:55Our hometown is not a test tube. They feel like they're standing in opposition to an entire administration.
24:01Guess you didn't move in on a bunch of dumb hillbillies now, did you?
24:05Listen to Our Town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
24:10Hey, this is Hayes Davenport. And Sean Clements. We host the podcast Hollywood Handbook on the Big Money Players Network.
24:16Our show is extremely accessible to first-time listeners. Each week, we talk to someone in show business, a.k.a.
24:22the biz, and try to help them with their careers and see what they have to offer us.
24:27Everyone has a good time, and no one gets mad at their publicist for letting them do our show.
24:33We've had a lot of great guests like Sarah Sherman.
24:36Not that great. Actually, can you help me shape this?
24:39How about we flip it on his head? How about we flip the script?
24:43What if the surprise woman, who actually you think is the straight man, is actually the one who's acting weird?
24:49Adam Scott, this entire time, you've been expecting Adam Sandler to come to visit the show.
24:54I would never expect. Let go of that. I have.
24:57I would never set expectations for something like that to happen.
25:00It seems like you did. If the universe allows for something like that to happen, I'm open to it.
25:06I'm always going to accept. You know, Danny McBride, fine.
25:09Yeah. It's all this fragile masculinity exuding. I could smell it walking down the hallway, to be honest with you.
25:15I was like, is that weed? Nope. It's fragile masculinity.
25:18Ben Stiller, no. Because a lot of times, out of context, people don't get it or even know what a circle is.
25:25You know what I mean? They're so stupid. Everyone's so dumb except for you.
25:29And fake. Right. Fake and also not interested or just like, oh, I've got my life.
25:34I don't care about your life. And a lot of other big shots that wouldn't be where they are without us.
25:40Oh, and by the way, Will Ferrell told us personally he loves the show and he wants to be a guest on every episode.
25:48But he's just so busy. Listen to Hollywood Handbook on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
25:54Did you hear the new episode of the Hey Jonas podcast?
25:57We are at D23, so we'll see who stops by.
26:00The cast of Frozen stopped by. Kristen Bell, Josh Gad, and Idina Menzel.
26:04I auditioned for Frozen. What? For Kristoff. They said, okay, what are you going to be singing today?
26:10I said, I don't know. That must have been why you didn't get it.
26:14That's probably why. Plus, John Stamos, Hayden Christensen from Star Wars, and more.
26:18And I guess I can share that. No way.
26:21Listen to the latest episode of Hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
26:27Dog days of summer are the best times to be listening to this podcast.
26:31And if you want to get our bets and our analysis right away, the only way to do that is by signing up for Action Pro.
26:39Get $20 off an annual subscription with promo code POD20.
26:42Go to actionwork.com slash pro to get in on this offer.
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26:48Let's continue to discuss some of the props that we like on this weekend's card.
26:52Both got a couple KO props here. We mentioned the West Schultz sub prop.
26:57We talked about the RDR takedown prop. Let's go to the Mason Jones fight, because we both have a bet that we like here.
27:04Mason Jones going up against Markel Medeiros in the lightweight division.
27:07I like Jones by KO at plus 380. I make that closer to plus 300.
27:12You like Jones over on takedowns, assuming you can get a one and a half.
27:16I don't think we've found a line out there yet for this bout.
27:20Five-inch reach advantage for Jones here. I think he will just pretty much dominate minutes.
27:25The question is going to be whether he's able to get the finish.
27:29And in terms of Billy's prop, whether that finish comes earlier, comes late, giving us both the ability to cash our tickets.
27:35But I just like his forward pressure and then his ground and pound once he actually gets on top of people.
27:42Just very relentless, I guess, is the best way to describe his style.
27:46In terms of the forward pressure and tends to break guys.
27:49And I think he has the ability to do that here with Medeiros.
27:53So Jones by KO, down to about plus 350 would be my price target.
27:57Billy, what are you looking at in terms of the takedown number?
28:01Yeah, I'm hoping we get plus money or even money on the two takedowns.
28:05This is actually the fight I have the full breakdown for, which is why I'm comfortable waiting to give out an official number.
28:12Might come up with something else, too. Might tell you on that knockout.
28:16I am still convinced, and I don't know if you are, that he did not want to finish Jeremy Stevens in Iowa.
28:23And Jeremy Stevens' weird comeback fight and very much could have.
28:26Which means, you know, his opponent was getting up, which I think is the crucial thing here.
28:31I think Medeiros is in that sweet spot of can probably escape from a takedown or two.
28:36He got taken down twice by Austin Hubbard and Mark Cholinski.
28:40Not even sure how to say his name. He'll get taken down here and there.
28:44I think he'll survive at least one trip to the ground, which is all we need.
28:49But I am completely guessing that that is what the line will be.
28:53So it'll be interesting to see what we actually come out with.
28:57If it's not, I will have another angle as I watch more tape and write this one up on Friday morning.
29:03Right. I do not have a bet on, but you like the KO prop for Kennedy.
29:08Nunchucks, Kennedy and Setchikwu, who is an underdog to Shamil Gazeev.
29:11His knockout prop is about plus 220. Former light heavyweight, I would imagine he think will be the faster man in addition to being the longer man.
29:19Five inch reach advantage over Shamil. Shamil may have the grappling upside.
29:23We don't generally see him pursue it, at least super proactively.
29:26He might land one takedown here. I think Kennedy, though, maybe, probably, or I think Kennedy has enough to survive on bottom if he gets taken down.
29:35And I think the size and the speed certainly favors your KO prop being live.
29:39What's your price target in terms of that knockout prop?
29:42How do you see this fight playing out? Yeah, my price target is effectively Kenny Nunchucks Moneyline.
29:47I'm not attempting to pronounce his real last name.
29:50Like, shout out to you for grinding through that.
29:53But he is Kenny or Kennedy Nunchucks to me.
29:55It's just much, much easier. If he's going to win, that's almost certainly how he's going to do it against a guy
30:02who's been knocked out twice in the last 10 months and is kind of slow and seem chinny.
30:08I believe every knockout in Gazeev's career or every loss was a knockout.
30:11Yeah, because he had the, well, it was a retirement to Rosenstreich, but that still goes down as a knockout and would cash that bet.
30:19Much like Petrino, Nunchuck's not really all that small for heavyweight at this point.
30:23He's weighed in slightly heavier each time and will probably be in the 250s.
30:28My guess. This time around, carries it well. You know, big, long guy.
30:31Can strike really hard. And if he gets taken down, he's going to lose anyway.
30:36So I'd rather have the knockout prop than his Moneyline because that's how he has to do it.
30:41His grappling is not good. His cardio is even worse.
30:44I can't remember who he completely gassed out against.
30:47Oh, Buchecha. Yeah, he had the terrible fight with Buchecha where they both just ran out of steam.
30:53Gazeev should do that. I'm not confident that Gazeev will do that.
30:56Therefore, I think the knockout is alive because if it stays standing for any length of time, Nunchuck, we should get him out of there.
31:04Also, a guy I believe has the possibly the most recent win over current light heavyweight champion callers.
31:09Carlos Olberg was Kenny Nunchucks by knockout in one of their debut, both of their debut, something like that.
31:15I believe it was Olberg's debut. Yeah, Olberg had him on the ropes a couple of times in the first round and
31:22then basically just gassed himself out trying to finish through like 100 strikes and around and a half and then got finished himself.
31:29And as a result, was basically just kind of underrated, you know, the entire way up the light heavyweight ladder after that loss.
31:36It's amazing what first impressions can do, what one fight can do in terms of like future markets for fighters.
31:42I think he was matched up relatively soft after that.
31:45But I do think as a result, Olberg's just kind of value was tanked a little bit as he continued to get fights in the UFC.
31:53Let's talk about a couple of fights that are heavily favored to finish that I think you either have to bet the
31:59other direction, either the fight to go to a decision or the favorite to win by decision or pass on the fight
32:06because the fighters are so juiced to win inside the distance.
32:09The first being Larry and Douglas at about minus 380 going up against Jamal Emers.
32:14I make this fight about plus 275 to go to a decision.
32:18You can get it as high as plus 320.
32:20I also make Douglas by decision around four to one.
32:23You can get it as high as six to one.
32:26He is an aggressive finisher, has finishes throughout his career.
32:29Emers is 37 years old, but he is competitive in all of his fights.
32:34He's extremely well-rounded. Chance he gets shinned here is reasonably high, just not quite as high as I would make it.
32:40Or I should say it's, it's, uh, yeah, not quite as high as I would make it.
32:45Uh, I have this again, I make his decision prop about four to one.
32:49I would take a small poke down to five to one, but nothing.
32:53I'm rushing to the window to play. Do you have any thoughts or bets on this fight, Billy?
32:59Uh, this is another one. I'm very interested to see the takedown prop.
33:03Jamal Emers is another occasional grappler, right? In the, in the correct matchups, he will go for it.
33:08Uh, sometimes in the incorrect matchups, like against Jack Jenkins or Pat Sabatini when he doesn't need to, but for him to
33:15survive Douglas, I think he needs some takedowns. I think he has the ability to get those.
33:20So you're on Sean's angle here. It might be a good idea to also do some kind of ladder on Larry and
33:27Douglas takedown, something like that, because he could hit that ladder when the fight, thanks to his takedowns.
33:32Douglas has been matched up in a way that hasn't exposed him to that.
33:36He's never been taken down in the UFC or contender series, but he has a 0% takedown defense, Cause no one's tried.
33:43So kind of an open question. That'll be my angle.
33:46If the books allow us to ladder those up to three, four or five at a big plus money.
33:52The other being Marcio Bart Barbosa, maybe my favorite prospect in the UFC going up against Ryan Cuse, uh, Barbosa minus nine 50 on the money line.
34:00His decision prop is plus 1300. I think that should be closer to 10 to one.
34:05It is just a humongous number for any fighter to win by decision in a 15 minute fight, but he has been
34:11a very reliable finisher throughout his regional career finished, uh, very violently in his UFC debut as well.
34:17Do you have any thoughts or bets on this fight?
34:20Billy would be Barbosa by decision of plus 1300 for me or pass.
34:24I'm inclined to pass, but it is a big number.
34:27I like the sprinkle there. I mean, from, I don't know anything about Ryan Cuse, but looking at his record this week
34:34and some of the guys he's fought, you could argue, this is a step up for Barbosa after knocking out Dennis Bazooka
34:40in his last fight and Damon Wilson before that.
34:43So it's not a horrible case to make again.
34:46And you can't be that wrong at plus 1300, but Cuse has fought some UFC level guys in both of his losses or decisions.
34:53So yeah, it makes sense. I get the angle.
34:56Yep. And then let's move on to your best bet for this week.
35:00Or actually, sorry, I have one more prop. I want to discuss one more decision prop.
35:04Chanel Dyer minus 720 against Elise Reed, who's closer to plus 500.
35:08Dyer, I make decision plus 125. You can get that as high as two to one.
35:13She's eight years younger, has a two inch reach advantage here.
35:16How do you see that one playing out? Yeah, I don't like that one as much.
35:21Elise Reed has five losses in the UFC and has been finished in each of them.
35:26So that's another one though. If you think that's likely, it has to be via takedowns by Elise Reed.
35:32And you're going to get a big price on those because they expect the fight to end early.
35:37So if you think Elise Reed can be competitive enough to get it to a decision, probably get a better price on,
35:44you know, two takedowns against a Muay Thai fighter.
35:47So I think there's something there. I can see the case, but I wouldn't personally put any faith in Elise Reed surviving 15 minutes.
35:54Let's discuss your best bet for this weekend's card.
35:57I had a difficult time finding a best bet for this weekend.
36:00I had a difficult time finding much money line value or prop value on this card definitively.
36:05We'll see where I end up writing up as my best bet for this weekend.
36:10But you've got one with Christopher Padilla, Taco Padilla at about minus 102 against Nasrat.
36:14Hawk Cross, this fight was around a pick them.
36:17Hawk Cross has started to gain a little bit of momentum towards being a slight favorite.
36:22Padilla, the two inch reach advantage, both 31 years old.
36:25I feel like Taco is generally disliked by betting analysts and the betting public, myself included.
36:30I've tried to bet this guy, bet against this guy a few times, unsuccessfully so.
36:34Does seem to be getting a lot of public love this week.
36:38Tapology, MMA junkie votes, picking Taco as a pretty clear 70% side despite the pick them odds.
36:43Normally that would lead me to the bet on Hawk Cross, but actually the betting splits and the sharp bettors seem to be on Padilla as well.
36:51So you're taking Padilla. I make him about minus 120.
36:54I would be interested in laying him up to around minus 110.
36:58What's your price target on Taco and where would you bet him to?
37:02Yeah, I think I got plus 102 earlier in the week.
37:05This line has kind of moved both ways at different points, which makes it hard to analyze from that standpoint.
37:11The short answer is Padilla has never really lost a striking match in the UFC.
37:16I mean, he's never lost any fight in the UFC because he has the majority decision.
37:21And that was the weird one where Buffer, I believe, read it for Medeiros and then came back five minutes later and said it was actually a draw.
37:29And it probably should have been Padilla. Like if you look at the numbers or the MMA decisions page, like most people
37:36think Padilla should have won that outright. Which is how I arrived on this bet in the first place, which is looking at that majority of decision.
37:44Probably should have gone his way. Hackbars got knocked out in his last fight.
37:48Doesn't really grapple at all. Seems like a guy who's going to be willing to just exchange strikes with Chris Padilla and
37:55his high volume, the high volume Muay Thai from Padilla just wins rounds at a really reliable rate.
38:00Hackbars kind of has the same thing to him.
38:03But at this point in his career, Hackbars, you know, coming off a bad knockout in his last fight a long time ago.
38:10But, you know, we've seen him starting to get hurt.
38:13He's been hurt a couple of times before. I like the upside for Padilla here.
38:18I want plus money. I'm hoping we can still get plus money at different points or different books, but down to about
38:24minus 110 or so I think is okay. Fight that I want to discuss here because I do like two potential angles,
38:31but on either side of the matchup, Gage Young going up against Stanley Dorsanville, Stan the Drill Dorsanville.
38:37A lot of nicknames you could do when your last name is Dorsanville.
38:40I mean, the Anvil Dorsanville is just way too obvious, but there's a variety of directions you can go.
38:46I'm not sure if I love the drill as the optimal nickname choice.
38:50Amongst those, we've liked Gage Young in this podcast.
38:53He was our best bet for both of us.
38:56Last time he fought in a reasonable price range here, he was supposed to be an underdog to Cody Steele.
39:02Cody Steele pulled out, going to get Dorsanville in his UFC debut.
39:05Seems like Dorsanville, based upon the betting odds, may have some grappling upside, but we do like Gage Young's volume in a 15-minute fight.
39:13Fight IQ may be a little bit questionable, especially his last fight when he was dancing in front of his opponent with
39:19the ability to finish him on the mat after hurting him, not making him stand up.
39:24Also a questionable move, but I do like Gage Young by decision.
39:28About plus 200 is where he's listed. I make him closer to plus 160.
39:32And then Dorsanville inside the distance is plus 425.
39:35I make that closer to plus 350. Do you like either of those bets or do you like Young on the money line about minus 150, Billy?
39:43I have a follow-up question for you. Are you basing that split on it being a short notice fight for Dorsanville?
39:49Is that kind of why you're saying him inside the distance as his better path to victory?
39:54No, not necessarily. That was just how the model kind of worked itself out in terms of the numbers.
40:00I think he can absolutely win a decision. I would assume you're leading to he was already in full camp.
40:06Yeah, I want to throw that out there. He was supposed to fight next weekend and it got moved up one week.
40:13So like if anyone out there is handicapping it, like don't it's a short notice opponent switch, but one that affects both
40:20people equally, not some guy who they just pulled from wherever and bumped up a weight class.
40:25So yeah, I think that's a decent read. It feels like Gage Young is due for some stoppages with how like violent
40:31he throws and how more importantly, how much volume he throws, but they haven't really came against anyone good yet.
40:37So I don't know why it would here. So kind of I'm talking myself into the bet that you suggested, but I
40:44do think that's a decent side on Gage Young.
40:47I believe the only fight we haven't discussed on this card is Anthony Wint, who just won a contract on contender series
40:53nine days ago from when we recorded the pod 11 days as of when he will fight as a minus 1100 favorite
41:00against Terrence Chapman, who I was surprised to see was a MMA fighter based upon the photos alone.
41:06I have not seen video of this man actually fighting, but handicapping the line off of physique.
41:11I get the number. I just haven't seen Terrence Chapman fight yet.
41:14Have you seen him fight? And if so, is the line where it should be?
41:19I have not. I will say usually when we get these one-sided bets, like, you know, when the line posts early in
41:26the week, it continues to go towards the favorite.
41:28This one has held firm. So there's got to be some pushback from the Terrence Chapman fan community.
41:34Would love to hear from you if that describes you.
41:37I might throw a sprinkle on him just because it's like plus 800.
41:41He's never been knocked out. His only loss was a split decision.
41:44He's fought some okay dudes, I guess, but he's a big, big boy who has a win via leg kicks in his
41:51last fight, and you got to love that. If I was going to fight Anthony Wint in two days or whatever, leg
41:58kicks would be planned A through Z, right? You just kick his leg out and hope for the best.
42:03So Chapman's got in his bag. I will probably sprinkle, you know, 0.2 units on plus 750 or whatever we're getting right now.
42:10And hopefully maybe it goes a little bit bigger as the late money comes in.
42:15But yeah, if you're part of the Terrence Chapman fan club, my DMs are open.
42:20Terrence Chapman by spinning wheel kick in honor of Beast Boy would be how we'd all Beast Boy 2.0.
42:25Terrence Chapman. Beast Boy 2.0. Terrence Chapman. Exactly. That'll do it for UFC betting preview this week.
42:30You can find more UFC betting content from both Billy and myself, as well as our colleagues Dan Tom, Johnny L.
42:37Football, and others on ActionWork.com and in the ActionWork app.
42:40Don't forget to download the free awarding ActionWork app and sign up for ActionPro for immediate access to expert picks and analysis.
42:46Best of luck with all your bets this weekend.
42:49Enjoy the violence. Thanks for listening. See you back here next week on the ActionWork podcast.
42:54Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
43:01Did you hear the new episode of the Hey Jonas podcast?
43:05We are at D23, so we'll see who stops by.
43:08The cast of Frozen stopped by. Kristen Bell, Josh Gad, and Idina Menzel.
43:12I auditioned for Frozen. What? For Kristoff. They said, okay, what are you going to be singing today?
43:17I said, I don't know. That must have been why you didn't get it.
43:21Oh, you probably won. Plus, John Stamos, Hayden Christensen from Star Wars, and more.
43:26And I guess I can share that, uh... No way.
43:29Listen to the latest episode of Hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
43:35On the new podcast, Solita, we share the messy reality of traveling alone as a woman.
43:40I can wait four hours for the next bus, or this random dude is offering me a ride on his motorcycle.
43:46I chose option B. I'm Julie Pinheiro, and I travel by myself because it's a rare space where I can say yes without asking anyone else first.
43:54I'm on a mission to reclaim the word Solita, trading the pity for possibility.
43:58Listen to Solita on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
44:03I'm the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
44:06I'm Hoda Kotb, host of the podcast Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb.
44:10You know, I'm always searching for inspiration and useful tools to maximize joy.
44:14Like when my friend Henry Winkler offered advice to aspiring actors and really anybody hoping to stand out.
44:19You're not hired just to fill time and space.
44:22You're hired to fill the space with you. Listen to Joy 101 with Hoda Kotb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
44:30Our hometown is not a test tube. 90 miles northeast of Nashville, a battle for the future of America plays out in one small town.
44:38Developers with right-wing ties have purchased hundreds of acres of land.
44:41We need cities on a shining hill. This is Our Town, a podcast about what happens when a small town becomes the site of a social experiment.
44:49and fights back. Guess you didn't move in on a bunch of dumb hillbillies now, did you?
44:55Listen to Our Town on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
44:59We'll see you next time.

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