NFL Betting Playground | Week 4
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this podcast and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 2 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 2, 2026
Published
Fri, October 2, 2026
18
Player insights
16
Players mentioned
Topics
Lamar JacksonPuka NacuaBijan RobinsonChristian WatsonDaniel JonesJadarian PriceJalon DanielsJameis WinstonJameson WilliamsJaxon Smith-NjigbaJordan LoveJosh DownsMalik NabersMarShawn Lloyd
Player analysis
Player insights
Bijan Robinson
PositiveMatchup53:33
Robinson is expected to run all over the Saints' defense in Week 4; the source likes the Falcons to potentially win that matchup.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveRole0:10
Watson has been catching a lot of touchdowns and is one of the Packers' primary receivers alongside Matthew Golden in their pass-heavy offense. The source notes Watson and Golden have been 'really good' this season as Love is throwing more frequently.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
NegativeMatchup59:08
Jones is the Giants' quarterback playing in London against the Ravens as a favorite, noted in the context of the Week 4 four-square parlay.
Insight pageJadarian Price
NegativeUsage42:08
Price is fumbling every game for Seattle; the Seahawks are third-worst by DVOA in rushing the football, limiting his effectiveness.
Insight pageJalon Daniels
NegativeRole58:54
Daniels is the undrafted rookie quarterback for the Chargers, noted in the context of the team's 0-3 record and underdog status against Seattle.
Insight pageJameis Winston
NegativeMatchup59:08
Winston is the Ravens' quarterback laying double digits against the Giants in Week 4.
Insight pageJameson Williams
PositiveProjection45:00
Williams has played 87% of snaps through three games despite 10 catches for 127 yards; he shows a bimodal outcome pattern—either invisible (under 66 yards, 43 or below last year) or explosive (66+ yards in 10 games last year with 7 touchdowns, averaging 97 yards). Against Carolina's depleted secondary (both starting cornerbacks JC Horn and Mike Jackson out), Williams is due for a breakout; he's never had more than three straight games below 66 yards in the last two seasons and is currently at three straight. The source targets 70+ yards at +194 odds, noting that when he hits 66+ yards, he has a touchdown in all but one game last year (14 of 15 games), and all seven 700-yard games came with touchdowns, making 100 yards and a touchdown at 10-to-1 odds underpriced.
Insight pageJaxon Smith-Njigba
NegativeMatchup42:17
JSN is the primary offensive weapon for Seattle against the Chargers; the source notes that the Chargers' defense last year allowed only two receivers to go over 100 yards and had the biggest games against big physical receivers like A.J. Brown, which is not JSN's game. If JSN can be kept in check, Seattle's offense won't run away with the game.
Insight pageJordan Love
PositiveProjection0:05
Love is positioned for a strong passing performance against Tampa Bay's weak secondary; the Buccaneers allow the sixth most passing yards (median 266 yards), and Love's line sits at 241.5 yards. Love has already posted two of his seven best career passing games this season (312, 387 yards), and the Packers are playing faster and passing more this year. The source likes over 241.5 passing yards and escalators to 300 yards (plus 340), 350 yards (plus 1080), and 400 yards (plus 1100), betting that Love will have to throw frequently since the Packers cannot run the ball effectively.
Insight pageJosh Downs
PositiveProjection36:00
The source likes Josh Downs as a receiver prop against Washington in the Colts-Commanders game. Downs is described as an 'advanced metrics darling' who is now 'finally kind of shining' after Pittman is gone and Pierce is out; he is the receiver one. In his last two games, Downs had 9 and 11 targets, with 7 catches for 72 yards and 5 catches for 77 yards—described as 'nothing great, just solid, just steady.' The source notes Washington has allowed the most fantasy points to receivers so far this year, with JSN and CD Lamb each scoring twice over 120 yards, and Devante Smith having a nice game. The source likes over 62.5 receiving yards at DraftKings, stating: 'Josh Downs is not those guys. It doesn't have to be. It's just over 62 and a half receiving yards at DraftKings as well.'
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveProjection40:05
The source strongly favors Lamar Jackson and the Ravens against the Titans, citing dominant historical performance in the home favorite role. As a home favorite of over 9 points, Lamar Jackson is undefeated 12-0 straight up, winning by an average of 17 points per game, and 8-4 ATS. He has never won a game by less than 6 points in that spot. Baltimore's last 15 wins include 12 by 13 points or more. The source states: 'Lamar Jackson as home favorite of over nine points undefeated 12 and 0. Straight up winning by 17 points a game, eight and four ATS. He's never won a game by less than a six in that spot.' The source makes Ravens minus 11.5 and believes the line is light, estimating it should be over 14 points.
Insight pagePositiveMatchup40:20
Ravens have a 100% hit rate to cover teaser legs with Lamar; Baltimore's last 15 wins include 12 by 13+ points, supporting a floor of 13.5-point spreads against the Titans.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveMatchup29:18
The source identifies Malik Nabers as a favorable matchup against the Cardinals defense, which is described as 'the worst unit on the field so far by the numbers.' The source states: 'I like Malik Nabors here. I think against backup corners, he could have a good spot here.' This is in the context of the Giants playing the Cardinals, with the Giants' backup quarterback Jameis Winston starting due to J.J. McCarthy's injury.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
NegativeUsage0:09
Lloyd's snap count, carries, and yards have declined over three straight games, dropping to six and four carries in the last two games as his role is being split with Caleb Johnson and Chris Brooks on passing downs. The source likes Lloyd to go under 8.5 rushing attempts (minus 122 at DraftKings) because the Packers cannot run the ball effectively against Tampa Bay's strong run defense (seventh in DVOA), and all three Packers running backs combined to go under this line last week.
Insight pageNate Becker
PositiveProjection49:30
Becker, a second-round Nebraska blocking tight end, has been effective in Jacksonville's heavy two-tight-end sets, improving the run game; he's played significant snaps despite one catch in his NFL career. The Bengals allowed 16 tight-end touchdowns last year (most in the league), including to blocking tight ends like Josh Oliver, Brock Wright, Darnell Washington, and Jackson Haas—Becker's archetype. With Jacksonville's offensive line concerns against Cincinnati's improved defensive line, Becker will be on the field blocking, creating a touchdown opportunity at 12-to-1 odds at DraftKings; the source also targets first touchdown at 65-to-1.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveProjection0:19
Nakua is positioned for strong production against Philadelphia's defense despite a groin injury discount on his line. Historically, in four matchups against the Eagles, Nakua averaged 13-15 targets per game and 8.3 receptions per game. His receptions line is discounted to 6.5 (down from 7.5 in week one) at plus 123 over, and the source trusts that if Nakua plays, he will be fully productive (not a decoy) because groin injuries typically don't affect production once a player returns. The source likes escalators: 8+ catches at plus 216, 9+ at 4-to-1, and 10+ at 7-to-1.
Insight pagePositiveProjection20:29
The source identifies Puka Nakua as a high-volume pass-catcher with strong historical production; he had 10 catches seven times last season and 11 catches for 112 yards against the Eagles last year. The source likes escalating catch props starting at over 6.5 catches (+216 at DraftKings), escalating to 8+ catches, 9+ at 4-to-1, 10+ at 7-to-1, 12+ at 17-to-1, and 13+ at 26-to-1. The source notes these prices are mispriced and that Nakua can catch so many passes in a game; even the 12-catch line (which he has hit four times) is unlikely to be offered at this price again. The source explicitly states: 'Puka over six and a half catches all the way up.'
Insight pageSaquon Barkley
NegativeMatchup21:44
The source expresses skepticism about Saquon Barkley's ability to produce long runs against the Rams, citing historical context and recent defensive performance. Two years ago, the Eagles beat the Rams twice (regular season and playoffs) with 599 rushing yards combined, and Barkley had runs of 62, 70, 72, and 78 yards. However, last year when Barkley played the Rams again, his longest run was 12 yards and the Eagles finished under 100 rushing yards. The Rams allowed only three running back runs over 25 yards all of last season. The source states: 'I don't think this bet's going to hit, Matt.' Instead of betting over 15.5 rushing yards, the source prefers a home-run swing: 30 yards at +450 or 50 yards at 10-to-1, betting that if Barkley breaks out, he goes deep.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00The Action Network Podcast No one, no one is offering you action like this.
0:04It's the gambling experience of a lifetime. It's my way of saying, I understand men like you.
0:09I know what you need. This is where you belong.
0:12This is the Action Network Podcast, and this is Brandon Anderson's Playground, brought to you by DraftKings Sportsbook.
0:18I'm Matt Moore. Thanks for joining us. Every week, Brandon Anderson fills your lives with the funnest, most profitable, overall bets that
0:24you can possibly find from week to week. You're not going to have a better time than tailing Brandon Anderson.
0:30He is the almighty dominator of ROI. It's Brandon Anderson.
0:33We're going to get to all sorts of stuff here.
0:36Chutes and ladders. The playground is open for Brandon Anderson.
0:39Brandon, so I'm just going to let you handle discussion of last week.
0:43I know the deal because I've been around and know that there's peaks and valleys, but I'll let you go ahead and give the recap of last week.
0:51Yeah, there are peaks, there are valleys, and there is the Mariana Trench, and that was last Sunday for us.
0:57It did not go well up in here. We hit Monday night, we hit Thursday night.
1:02Sunday, we went something like 0 and 21 or so.
1:05It was not great. That's not an exaggeration. If you count all the escalator bets separately, it was 0 and a lot of things.
1:12Thankfully, we did well week one and two. We're still up just over three units on the year, 8% ROI.
1:18And look, positive spin, I know, but if you can have the single worst betting Sunday of your life three weeks into
1:25the season and still be 8% to the good ROI, you're doing some good things.
1:29And that is spin, but that is also true.
1:32And yeah, we are not giving out a lot of minus 110s on here.
1:36And I don't like to do, you know, like the gross under bets on props.
1:41I don't like to do the minus 150s and minus 200s to try to get some wins.
1:46I want to win money. So we did not win money last Sunday.
1:50We are winning money for the year through September.
1:52And yeah, we're going to have the peaks and valleys because when you do long shots, you're going to miss them sometimes.
1:59Today, I will say this too. You're going to hear a lot of weird, gross looking bets today.
2:04And there are a lot more longer shot looking odds today.
2:07I want to say up front, this is not me chasing to try to get back for last Sunday.
2:13That is a losing endeavor. That is not the job here.
2:16These are just the lines that I like this week.
2:19These are the bets that I like. And that's what we'll do.
2:23You can check the graph on the Action Network app and you'll see the green line slowly going up.
2:29And hopefully we move back in the right direction this week.
2:32I know that you're genuine. It just is really funny because it sounded very much like my like my I'm not chasing
2:39T-shirt is generating a lot of questions already answered by my T-shirts.
2:42I know it's true. Can I ask you if there's any bet from last week that you genuinely regret?
2:48Because you were very selective with this. I'm always like, ooh, this thing.
2:52And then you're always like, don't care. We bet it 100 times out of 100 versus every time I get a bet wrong.
2:59I'm like, it was the dumbest bet of all time.
3:02I should have known better. What a horrible bet.
3:04I am the worst. So like, was there any bets last week that you're like, OK, I probably missed the mark on that one?
3:11Yeah, I meant to actually do a post this week just kind of going through it.
3:16And I may still do that on Twitter. So Bucks Kitchen Sink, I do that one every time.
3:22Rashad White got hurt at halftime. Can't do much about that.
3:25Raiders first quarter. I don't know. Maybe that was the dumb play.
3:28Somehow we get picked the one first quarter that the Saints actually won in like the last 25 tries.
3:34Bears we hit. Marin Hampton, I think he had like three touches inside the five.
3:39Niners alts were looking good. And then we lost Nick Bosa earlier in the week after we gave it out.
3:45And we lost Trent Williams and we lost Mike Evans.
3:48Texans one score almost hit. We just didn't quite get there.
3:51Our Ravens Derrick Henry escalator, I think would have hit if we got to overtime and then we got a seven second drive.
3:58The one that I didn't really have a good answer to looking back of my bigger bets was the Pat Fryermuth thing.
4:04And we're going back to the well against the Bengals with a tight end again today.
4:09Four for four. If we miss this one, it might start.
4:12It might be time to start saying like, OK, maybe we don't just auto bet the tight end against the Bengals every week.
4:19Maybe that's it. I don't know. I don't have a good answer to what happened with Fryermuth last week.
4:25Darnell Washington caught a few. And then they also had guys like Roman Wilson and others catching passes over the middle.
4:31So maybe it's just that they did attack the weakness that we thought, but with other guys than Fryermuth.
4:37I don't know. I think that would probably be the one that I felt like was the furthest away.
4:42I don't think that one ever really had a chance.
4:45But yeah, I don't feel like it was this terrible slate of reads.
4:49I don't feel like it was this amazing slate of reads and we got horrendously unlucky either.
4:54I think we had some solid reads. I think we got a little unlucky on a bunch of them.
5:00And, you know, then you lose a lot sometimes.
5:03Well, we are not going to try and make it all back in a week, but we are going to keep plugging along and making good bets.
5:11And we're going to go ahead and get into those now.
5:14Shoot some ladders really as it's ups and downs, but mostly it's lots of fun.
5:19Going up. I'll meet you at the bottom. We'll start with your ladders as we're going up, up, up on the escalator.
5:25And we're going to start with a team that you have been so down on since preseason.
5:30You foretold their downfall coming. And that is the Green Bay Packers.
5:34But you think this is an excellent spot for Jordan Love.
5:37I do. I think it's a really good spot to invest in love, at least this week, in this matchup against the Buccaneers.
5:44Speaking of teams that I am not down on, the Buccaneers, finally for one podcast, I'm not telling you to bet the
5:51Buccaneers, even though my numbers tell you to bet the Buccaneers this week.
5:54I can't do it again. I can't make you, the listener, do it again.
5:59Football is crazy, man. A week ago, less than a week ago, we're recording Thursday afternoon.
6:03Less than a week ago, the last time we saw the Green Bay Packers on a football field, this was the worst team in football.
6:11They couldn't stop a nosebleed against the Falcons. They got run off the field.
6:15And now, a week later, they're more than a field goal road of favorite in the NFL because things change in a hurry.
6:22And suddenly, what looked like a lost season for the Packers, you get to face Jordan Love, that quarterback this week, and
6:28probably Case Keenum or Tyson Bajant next week. Pretty good stroke of luck for the Packers and a chance to turn things around.
6:35They did go out and sign Kevin Zeitler and another guard at the offensive line.
6:40Early in the season, I think you have to give the coach some possibility of, you get kind of the mini-buy here, right?
6:47Thursday to the following Sunday. You get a little extra time.
6:50What do the Packers do a little different? So, I can't get to three and a half on the road.
6:56I think that's crazy. I still have this close to a coin flip.
7:00Here's a fun trend for you, Matt. I'm not betting this one, but one you'd like to know.
7:05Week 4 through 10 since 2014. Underdogs of between 3 and 7 points that have lost 3 in a row against the spread.
7:12Guess what? The Bucs qualify. They have lost 12 in a row against the spread.
7:17Those teams are 23-2 ATS. 23-2. It's a small sample, but you like your sample to be 23-2, and you're going to do it.
7:24So, before I get to the Jordan Love bet itself, I bet this week in the app, as you may have seen.
7:30Jordan Love, 100-1 MVP. I bet Jalen Daniels, 50-1 Rookie of the Year.
7:34I got both quarterbacks in this game because I think those numbers are crazy.
7:38You'll want a quarterback in Rookie of the Year and Love.
7:42I mean, look, we got a lot of runway to go here still.
7:45So, I don't know. We're getting from Jalen Daniels.
7:48You've been Bucs in the past. We've talked a lot about this team this year.
7:53What do you think about this game? No, thank you.
7:56No, thanks. Yeah. I stayed away from Bucs last week because I was just like, man, I just don't know, man.
8:02Like, Baker just seems like it's off. And now, obviously, he's out.
8:05We'll see kind of what happens with the rookie coming in and how that goes.
8:10Do I think that the Bucs fail to cover 12 straight times bad?
8:14No, I do not. Like, I do not think that they are that bad.
8:18Do I think that they are currently lost and time might be coming short for top Bucs?
8:23Yeah. Am I worried that maybe it was just what I liked about them was almost entirely generated by Liam Cohen and
8:30that his departure has kind of taken everything away as teams adjusted to whatever the Bucs did early last season?
8:36Yeah, I'm pretty concerned about it. I'm worried about it.
8:39So, like a number of games this week, this is an absolutely no thank you for me on both sides.
8:45I absolutely do not want any Packers, especially against a desperate Bucs team.
8:48I absolutely do not want to try and catch the falling knife with a team that has lost ATS 12 straight times.
8:55I'm good, thanks. Yeah, I mean, that's about where I ended up on this, too, even though my numbers really like Tampa here.
9:02But then I looked a little closer just in case and I think, okay, there is one thing I feel really good about in this game.
9:10There's one thing I know in this game. The Packers are not going to run the football in this game.
9:16They have no chance to run the football in this matchup.
9:19But Green Bay Packers running back through three games, 46 carries for 146 yards combined, under 3.2 yards a carry.
9:25This team cannot run the football right now. And it's the Buccaneers.
9:28It's Vita Vea. You never run the ball on the Bucs.
9:32Usually don't even try to run the ball on them.
9:35Packers are last in the league rushing by DVOA.
9:37The Bucs are seventh. They're always near the top.
9:40Marshawn Lloyd was supposed to be the answer here while Josh Jacobs is out.
9:44So three straight games. His snaps are down. His carries are down.
9:48His yards are down. He's down to six and four carries the last two games.
9:52Some of his carries are going to Caleb Johnson now.
9:55Some of his snaps are going to Chris Brooks on passing downs.
9:59So this is not the main bets, but it's going to lead into it.
10:03If you can find it, Marshawn Lloyd under eight and a half rushing attempts.
10:07It's minus 122 at DraftKings. Last week, all three running backs had eight rushing attempts.
10:12All three together combined to go under this one.
10:14So I like Lloyd to go under. And if they're not running the ball at all, if they can't run the ball,
10:21it's got to be Jordan Love chucking it. The Buccaneers allowed the sixth most passing yards last year.
10:26Median outcome, 266 yards. Love's passing yards line is 241 and a half.
10:30That's the over I'm going to start with here is over that almost half his games last year.
10:36Packers are playing faster this year. They're passing way more this year.
10:39Christian Watson and Matthew Golden have been really good.
10:42Love actually has two of his seven best yards games ever in his career so far this season.
10:47312, 387. So give me over 241 and a half Love passing yards.
10:51And then we'll take the escalator. The Bucs allowed 300 yards five times last year.
10:56So 300 is plus 340 after DraftKings. 350 is just over 10 to 1 at plus 1080.
11:01And if we get a career high, 400 yards at 30 to 1 after DraftKings, just a nibble all the way to the top.
11:08I think whatever happens here, I don't know who wins.
11:11I don't know what Jalen Daniels is. I do think I know that Jordan Love's going to have to throw the ball a lot.
11:18So let's just play him. Buccaneers have the fifth highest heavy box rate via Sam Hoppanova, Hoppanova conclusions.
11:23And the Buccaneers have the 31st ranked too high shell rate, which is like how I've started determining are you going to
11:30have a good passing day or not. And so you have a bad secondary with a team that stuffs the run that
11:37is going to leave guys in man coverage with only one safety over the top.
11:41Yep, I'm in. Let's do this. Let's go. Can you help me understand how you angle in on this and why you
11:48choose to stay away from things like receiver derivatives and the over?
11:51Because like, all right, Packers defense is garbage. Even with a rookie coming in, Packers defense is garbage.
11:57Love if he's putting up good passing numbers. Some receiver has to benefit from that.
12:01How do you single in on this is the angle versus the derivatives that come from this handicap?
12:06Normally, the more aggressive it looks like I'm being on a game because I'm like, holy cow, he's taking a 31 to one.
12:13That's crazy. He must really feel confident about this.
12:16No, no, no. You've got it wrong. That's backwards.
12:19The more aggressive I'm being is actually the less confident I am in the script of the game.
12:24Here is a game. We have no idea what's going to happen.
12:28We don't know if the Packers can move the ball.
12:31We don't know if they can defend. We don't know what Jalen Daniels is going to be.
12:36There are a lot of outcomes here. You're right.
12:38I would lean over on the game. I would lean looking at Watson's been catching a lot of touchdowns.
12:44Him golden longest catches. All of that makes sense.
12:47If my script is right, that we just get a ton of love passing, then I think you want to play the
12:53most aggressive version of that that can get you the biggest payouts.
12:57So if you're if we're over like 40 points.
13:00Okay. So we take the escalator there. We go to 44, 47, 51.
13:03You're still not getting that high. You know, you're getting like a two or three to one payout on that.
13:09And so if I have a lot of things go right, I can just be right about love chucking.
13:15And I actually started here thinking we did a couple weeks ago a Bo Nix attempts escalator.
13:20I thought this was that I started with that.
13:23But loves attempts number, I think is about right.
13:26His passing is very hit or mess. He's he's shooting for the fences.
13:29He's trying to hit home runs every time. And I want some of those big plays against that terrible too high that you mentioned.
13:37So that's where I got to this one is the longer the numbers I'm finding is me not necessarily saying this is the angle.
13:44It's definitely going to be this way. It's me saying, I don't know, man, a lot of things could happen in this game.
13:51But this is one of them. And I don't think they're pricing it quite as short as I believe it should be.
13:57I like these kind of bets because it's an if then, which I really like.
14:02It's if. If love. If they can't run and if love's throwing and if love connects, it goes way over market.
14:08Right. And that I think is I think that's a great.
14:11And so far this season, it's not even if the Packers can't run.
14:15That's the usual with Matt LaFleur. Now it's been we did we know we're admitting defeat before we even try.
14:21We're not even failing to run. We are giving up running and just passing the ball.
14:26Now, I don't think they want to do that long term.
14:29So maybe that's where this goes awry, but that's what we saw more and more the last couple of games.
14:35So that's the angle on this one. You said awry and I'm really hungry.
14:39So now I want a rye sandwich. Rams at Eagles.
14:42You are going once again towards a prop angle and you're going big, big, big escalators on a receiver and a running back.
14:49Yeah, two familiar names here. Normally, I do. We'll get to some lesser names in a while, too.
14:55I think this is a really fascinating matchup. Rams at Eagles because we've seen this a lot in the last three years.
15:01We've seen this four times. The Eagles won all four of them all by six points or more.
15:06So when that happens, I look at the matchup and say, OK, why?
15:10Why did the Eagles win those games? Well, here's what happened.
15:14A.J. Brown killed the Rams. He gone. Dallas Goddard put up big numbers on the Rams.
15:18He's out. Not happening for those guys. Philly has no personnel versatility right now.
15:23Their receivers are not blocking. I think that's a big part of the problem for them.
15:27Why else did they win those games? They ran all over the Rams in those games.
15:32159 yards rushing, 314, 285, 86. They averaged over 200 yards a game on over 36 carries.
15:37Well, guess what? This ain't those Eagles anymore. They're not running the ball that well anymore.
15:42The line is struggling. A little promise against the Bears, but it was the Bears.
15:46What else happened? Stafford got sacked a ton in those matchups.
15:50Guess what? The Eagles can't pass rush right now.
15:52There's no Jonathan Grenard right now. So history says Eagles, but I think the reasons it says Eagles are history now.
15:59Like they're not there for this team anymore. I worry about their line against Aaron Donald and the D line there.
16:05To me, the question is, is Philadelphia still in there?
16:08Is this still the Eagles? Eagles? I think the answer is no.
16:12I think that the Eagles are cooked and I would like the Rams, but it's minus three.
16:17I can't do it at the key number. I know you're interested in this matchup.
16:21Before I get to the two escalators here, what are your thoughts on Rams and Eagles in the matchup?
16:27I'm starting to back away from it. I might buy out.
16:30Honestly, I grabbed it earlier this week. I, this is the first line that when I popped on the board, I was just like, what?
16:38What? What do you, what? I'm sorry. The, the Eagles are.
16:41Are three point dogs at home to a Rams team.
16:44That is one in two. And it's like, I understand the context.
16:47I understand that the, that the Rams flew to Australia on short rest.
16:51I have a lot of thoughts about that. That I only have time to get into.
16:56I will just say that like, I think the narrative about the rest stuff is actually, I think a little bit crazy
17:03because I had to do a bunch of stuff on altitude for our article.
17:07That's on it. Action network. You can look up on Google and some of the things about altitude are similar.
17:13I did the things about jet lag and there's just like mixed results there.
17:17I think that a game was actually more about how Shanahan continues to pants McVay, but, but, but, but, you know, okay.
17:24Last week, but they, they got nixed the way that Bo Nix's dark magic continues to threaten to destroy the league.
17:30I get that. I understand it. I just can't get to a place where, and I, and I totally understand like a
17:36really good kind of starting place for this is I did a composite ranking from a bunch of different places, including Brandon's
17:43on the best offensive lines in the league. And the Eagles ranked out amazing everywhere.
17:47And yet their offensive line has been like wildly disappointing this season.
17:51And that fundamentally changes everything about him. If the Eagles aren't winning in the trench, then they're not the Eagles that we've known.
17:58Yeah. I'm just not, what I don't get is what this line suggests to me.
18:02The opener was minus one and a half. Okay.
18:05I don't agree with that one either. I think this is probably closer to a pick them because I like the Eagles
18:12more coming into the year, but fine. Mine could be wrong.
18:15What I don't understand is essentially what this line is suggesting is that we should downgrade the Eagles and we should not downgrade the Rams.
18:22And that doesn't make sense to me. So like I bet Eagles, but I also was looking at things last night and
18:29found trends that make me absolutely horrified that the Rams are going to win this game by a big margin.
18:35So like I am, I started off as like, I'm putting my foot down and plant my flag.
18:40This line is dumb, which is how I approach most NFL betting.
18:44Now I'm kind of like, it might be still be, I still disagree with the line, but I don't know if I
18:50want any part of this, which is why I'm really interested in your prop angles here.
18:55Yeah. So I mentioned what are the trends I'm looking at in those specific matchups?
19:00There's two other ones and that is going to lead directly to the plays here.
19:04So one other thing I noticed, Puka Nakua was a target monster against the Eagles.
19:09In those four games, 11, 13, 14, and 15 targets, over 13 targets a game, 8.3 receptions a game.
19:14Is Puka Nakua going to play? We don't know for sure right now, Matt.
19:18So because of that, we're getting a little discount on the line.
19:22So I'm going to take the risk here. Here's what I think based on what I can read on the tea leaves
19:29and based on like some of the Twitter doctors whose angles I trust.
19:33With a groin injury, it's not going to usually affect your production back on the field.
19:37It's just keeping you off the field for a while.
19:40If he goes, I trust him to be Puka Nakua out there and I trust him not to go if he's not ready.
19:47And if that happens, we just get our money back on the bets.
19:51I don't think that there is a likelihood that he plays and is a decoy.
19:55I think they are not going to rush him back for that.
19:59When Stafford plays this Fangio defense, the one thing we've seen consistently for him is he's just going to keep looking over to Puka.
20:06It's the one thing you trust out there. So from week one, Nakua's receptions line was 7.5.
20:11We're getting it at 6.5. It's a full reception lower and the over is plus 123.
20:16So we're getting it a catch lower and plus money.
20:19And I just think we're not going to get many chances to invest in a receiver this good at this price.
20:25Seven catches last year hitting this line, 12 of 16 games.
20:29So 75%, even when he missed it, five, six, and six usually.
20:32So right there in the mix. And if over six and a half is mispriced, then that means the entire thing is mispriced all the way up.
20:40That's why I like the escalator. I call it that because it's doing the work for you.
20:45By the time you hit the one, it's moving you up automatically to the next step.
20:50The next step is closer and closer. So here we go.
20:53Eight catches or more plus 216 at DraftKings. Extra catch, double the payout.
20:57One catch more. Great. Got to do it. Nine at four to one.
21:01Ten at seven to one. Again, we're basically doubling our payout for one extra catch from a dude that can catch so many passes in a game.
21:09He had 10 catches seven times last season. The Eagles only allowed that once last year.
21:14Guess what? It was Tapuka Nakua. 11 catches for 112 yards.
21:17So last one, 12 catches at 17 to one and 13 catches at 26 to one.
21:22I think those are crazy, to be honest. But those numbers are not good.
21:26If we're right about what we've been betting, those are not the right numbers for those either.
21:31He does have 12 catches four times. Again, probably not the game for it, but we're not going to get this price
21:38on a Puka number like that too often. So Puka over six and a half catches all the way up.
21:44And then on the other side, Saquon Barkley. I did think he kind of showed a little more burst on Monday night.
21:50I don't think the Eagles run game is what it was.
21:54But two years ago, the Eagles beat the Rams in the regular season and in the playoffs.
21:59If you recall, Matt, the Eagles ran all over the Rams those games.
22:03They had 599 rushing yards in two games. And Saquon Barkley had most of it.
22:07He had runs in one season against the Rams of 62, 70, 72, and 78.
22:12Last year, it didn't happen. Last year, he played the Rams again.
22:15His longest run was 12. They finished under 100 yards.
22:18The Rams only allowed three running back runs over 25 yards last season, the entire year.
22:23So I don't think this bet's going to hit, Matt.
22:26But I want a little piece of Saquon Barkley longest run.
22:29If I'm playing the Rams, I've seen this movie before.
22:32I don't want over 15 and a half. If Saquon busts out, he's busting out.
22:37He's going deep. Swing for the fences. 30 yards longest run, plus 450.
22:4150 yards longest run, 10 to 1. I'm not hitting the home run here.
22:45I'm going for the grand slam. If we get a big one, I want him to just take it to the house and get us a big winner.
22:53I like it. This is a smart way to attack it, I think.
22:57Once again, it kind of leans towards, well, if Barkley's breaking long runs and Huka's catching 12 receptions, then we've probably got a slugfest scoring output here.
23:05But these are two, I think, defenses you can put some more faith into.
23:09It's an interesting, I think, kind of combo. I want to look up.
23:13Yeah, Eagles are mid on blitz rate. So they're not high or low on that.
23:18They do run a low amount of too high, though.
23:21So that's always kind of what Huka can break one, because if you've got one single safety back, I like that kind of equation.
23:28Really interesting angles, I think, on a fascinating game between the Rams and the Eagles.
23:32Continuing on in our playground, oh, fun. Why don't you hit me with...
23:36I love this angle. I love this angle. I love this angle.
23:40You're backing a San Francisco running back in a game versus the Broncos.
23:44I am, and it is not Christian McCaffrey. I think this is a Kalen Black game.
23:48So, really interesting game here. I don't have a great read on Niners-Broncos.
23:52I do think the Niners have not proven a lot.
23:55They played the Cardinals and the Dolphins. I think the Broncos have not been great.
24:00They were terrible against your Chiefs. They were bad for half the game against Jacksonville and the Rams until they came on late.
24:07But the first half counts, too. I think the angle on the game that's interesting is we know about all the Niners'
24:13injuries, especially at receiver and especially in the defensive line.
24:16Here's what's fascinating. No good receivers kind of just waste Denver's awesome corners.
24:20So, you kind of take away that strength. You neuter it a little bit.
24:24And Broncos haven't run the football anyway, so they can't really run on this bad San Francisco front.
24:30So, you sort of waste the advantage that way, too.
24:33They're doing this quick passing game for Denver. Well, San Fran's not getting after the quarterback anyway, so you don't really need to do that here.
24:40So, I think that's what's fascinating. The weakness here so far has been Denver's rushing defense.
24:45We saw Kenneth Walker demolish them week one Monday night.
24:48Typically, that would mean an auto bet on Kyle Shanahan.
24:51Minus two and a half. Easy choice. Run the football.
24:54Get out of here with the win. The problem is I don't think that's McCaffrey's game anymore.
24:59But in week one, it was Kalen Black. The guy from James Madison, then Indiana.
25:04The rookie running back. He's your powerful in-between-the-tackles runner.
25:06You want to protect the other line. You want to run right at that pass rush.
25:11That's how you defeat the Denver pass rush. That's what teams have been doing.
25:15Tootin had a good game. Kyron Williams had a good game.
25:19I think Kalen Black's going to have a good game here.
25:22So, his snaps are down. I said earlier some of those Marshawn Lloyd trends.
25:26It looks similar with Kalen Black. His snaps and rush attempts down in three straight.
25:30But his, there's a story here. Week two, Miami.
25:33It's a blowout. So, Jordan James plays late. Kind of takes some of Black's snaps.
25:38Week three, Arizona actually put up a lot of offense.
25:41Sam Fran's defense was on the field almost two-thirds of the game.
25:44So, you just don't get as many snaps that game.
25:47Denver opposing running backs have, the backup running back, have had eight, six, and six carries.
25:52So, I think we get at least that. Six carries, four yards, 24 yards.
25:56Here's the line, Matt. Over 22.5 rushing yards. So, I think even if we just get a boring nothing Kalen Black game, I still like that at DraftKings.
26:05He's hit that in two of three. Even last week, he played eight snaps.
26:09He only missed it by six yards on this line.
26:12So, even if he's barely playing and if we're basically wrong here, I think we might still hit that initial one.
26:18And if we're right, let's take the little escalator here.
26:21A little mini one because this is not a high one.
26:2440 yards rushing is just over three to one odds.
26:2750 yards at plus 560. And 60 yards at plus 960.
26:31All at DraftKings. Now, look. There's a couple of them giving out today that are more home run swings.
26:36If we miss here, Kalen Black might just barely play and we probably miss everything.
26:41Each one of those payouts is nearly doubling the payout for only 10 yards more.
26:45For like two more carries, we hit another one up the escalator.
26:49So, week one, 65 yards. He hit all of these all the way, even though he didn't have a long run as long as it was 14.
26:57So, I think this is a hand the ball off to your power runner.
27:01That's Kalen Black. I think it's a Kalen Black game in Denver.
27:05Your last one is Giants. You not only like the...
27:08Why mess with the plus two and a half when we can go the other direction as the Giants take on the Cardinals?
27:14Yeah, you and I both like this one. This will be in both of our contest picks later.
27:20I'm going to take the Giants plus two and a half.
27:23Look, I could not have imagined that this would be my top spread pick of the week.
27:28But this line is so wonky to me. So, let's just do some line analysis at the top.
27:34So, you're going to love this because these are the sort of line analyses that you like to do.
27:39So, here we go. Giants minus seven into the season.
27:42It's cards two and a half now. We just watched three weeks of football and everyone thought, you know what?
27:48I think the Cardinals are 10 points better than they were before the season.
27:52What are we doing? Okay, number two. The Matt Moore special.
27:56What if this game was in Arizona? It's two and a half Arizona now.
28:00That implies Arizona would be more than a touchdown favorite at home against a real NFL team.
28:05What are we doing? Heck, this line was Giants two and a half Sunday morning.
28:09Now, it's Cardinals two and a half. What happened since Sunday morning to flip this five points?
28:14I know Brian Burns is out. Brian Burns is five points.
28:18Josh Allen is five points. What are we doing with this line?
28:21Matt, this line is so confusing. I looked multiple different times and places to be like, I must be reading it wrong.
28:28The look ahead was wrong. What am I missing?
28:31Whatever that is wrong here. I don't get it.
28:33I think these teams are equally whatever. They were 20th and 21st in DVOA so far this year.
28:39They were 27th and 26th last year. They're just kind of fine.
28:42They're not even fine. They're just kind of bad.
28:45They're not terrible. They're just bad. Where are the Cardinals five points better?
28:49I don't get it. I think the Giants have been kind of solid so far, honestly.
28:54They dominated the Cowboys. They dominated the Titans, honestly, until the last five minutes in that game.
28:59They looked terrible in the game everyone watched. Yeah, well, you lost your franchise quarterback.
29:03That's kind of a shock to your system. And the Rams are pretty good.
29:07You're probably going to look terrible in that game.
29:10I think people are overreacting to the J.J. McCarthy trade, too.
29:13I think people are like, ah, Jameis Winston sucks because they had to go trade for McCarthy.
29:18No, you just needed a backup. You're taking a shot developing someone.
29:22That's a smart trade if you're the Giants. I think Jameis will be fine.
29:26And I think in this matchup, he'll be fine.
29:29Cardinals defense is the worst unit on the field so far by the numbers.
29:33I like Malik Nabors here. I think against backup corners, he could have a good spot here.
29:38I know Burns is out. We still got Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeau.
29:42Giants run defense has been pretty good, too. Run defense, top 10.
29:45Overall defense, I think their perception is that it's bad.
29:48I think they can hang a little bit. I think Cardinals offense is obviously the best unit on the field.
29:54But give me the coach I like, head coach, not assistants.
29:58Give me the special teams I like better. Give me the defense I trust more.
30:02And to be clear, this is not me just being like, Giants Island, I'm digging in my heels.
30:08No, no, no. The island's out. The island is underwater for the year.
30:11We had our fun. Would love a three and one possibility here to buy out of some of the island positions.
30:18This is just a bad number. This should not be Giants plus two and a half.
30:23So that's the bet. And then you know the drill.
30:25We've done it, I think, each week so far.
30:28Since 2015, if a home underdog of under three points wins outright, we've got 140 of those.
30:3360% of those teams that won outright won by at least a touchdown.
30:37Guess what? The Giants beat the Cowboys by a touchdown.
30:40They led the Titans 12-0 until five minutes left.
30:43If you like the short home underdog, you should bet the alt as well.
30:47So Giants minus six and a half plus 285 is our final escalator play.
30:51Yeah. Even if you drop home field advantage down to 1.9, let's say you have it under two points at 1.9.
30:57We're still looking at a little under six and a half for what this would be in Arizona.
31:03Do you really, really, really, really think that the Arizona Cardinals should be a seven point favorite?
31:08This to me screams. I said this to you in text.
31:11This to me screams that what's happened is the Cardinals went out and trucked the Chargers in week one.
31:17And the other thing beyond the line analysis that I loved all that, by the way, you were just like, I loved it.
31:24More and more and more, please. But the other thing I like to do is I like to do how the conversational
31:30pieces of this, because I do think the conversations in the sharp spheres impact things.
31:35And on the one hand, every podcast is like the Chargers are garbage.
31:39The Chargers are awful. There is no bottom. They are so terrible.
31:42They are completely lost. You know, Justin Herbert sucks.
31:45All of these types of things. And on the flip side, but what you can't do is you can't do that and
31:51then be like, hey, maybe the Cardinals aren't as bad as we thought.
31:55No, no, no, no, no, no. Can't can't do both.
31:58You can do, oh, God, the Chargers are significantly worse than the Cardinals.
32:02Or you could do, look, the Chargers are probably fine.
32:05Maybe the Cardinals are pretty good. I don't know how you argue the Chargers are probably fine when they lost.
32:11A game in which they had a plus five turnover margin.
32:14Like, no. We'll get there. So, so I'm with you on this.
32:18I love this. I'm, I'm totally in agreement. I also don't understand.
32:22It's like, well, it's Jameis Winston. Look, Jacoby Brissett.
32:24I feel like it's, it's the HR meme where it's like, oh, you're so sweet, Jacoby Brissett.
32:29And then with Jameis Winston, like inconsistent, only he's handing him inconsistent play.
32:33Oh, you're so sweet, Jacoby Brissett. And then Jameis Winston hands inconsistent play.
32:37Hello, HR? Like, that's how I feel about this.
32:40It's like, there, you can't, you cannot seriously be like, well, darts out.
32:44And it's Jameis Winston versus Brissett. No. These are two career backups.
32:47Playing against each other in a meaningless game. The line should be much closer.
32:51I am with you. Let's go on the Giants this week.
32:55We will get to the rest of Brandon's best bets.
32:58Best bets. We'll hit the sandbox next. But before we do that, let's hear a quick word from our beloved sponsor, DraftKings Sportsbook.
33:05The Action Network podcast has teamed up with DraftKings and with football back, they have got a great new offer for our listeners.
33:11Whether you're locked into the early slate, the primetime matchup, or following your favorite team every Sunday, DraftKings is now available in all 50 states.
33:19From New York to California. So no matter where you are, you can stay connected in one app.
33:24If you're new to DraftKings, sign up with the code Action Network, spend $5 and get 150 in total rewards.
33:30That's code Action Network. Download the DraftKings Sports app and keep football at your fingertips all season long.
33:36DraftKings, the crown is yours. We'll keep it simple.
33:38When I was in the sandbox as a kid, I got no respect.
33:42I like it. It's playful. Keep it simple, smarty pants.
33:45Your sandboxes are the best. That's why I want you involved.
33:49All right, back here in the playground, we're heading to the sandbox.
33:52We'll hit some quick hitter sides and props that Brandon wants to hit.
33:56And you're going to start with the one week I don't want to bet the Colts.
34:01You, of course, want to take the Colts. Yeah, I'm going to take the Colts.
34:05We got to bet the first Sunday morning game of the year.
34:09So give me the Colts minus three and a half.
34:12I will have a full write-up game guide on this one at Action Network.
34:16With the international game, I always start with the favorite.
34:19If you take out Jacksonville games, because they, you know, basically are home team on international at this point.
34:25Taking out Jaguars games, international favorites are now 36 and eight straight up, 82%, including 29 and 15 against the spread, covering two thirds of the time.
34:33It makes sense, right? The neutral field. Take the better team.
34:36You know, I love a good argument, Matt. That's just take the better team.
34:40What a lovely argument. The Colts are the better team.
34:43I think the Colts are the better team hidden by a brutal opening schedule.
34:47They got crushed by the Ravens, who I really like.
34:50They played pretty well against the Chiefs and the Texans, who I also like.
34:55They played them to field goal games. I think that's a kind of fine outcome to be one and two after that.
35:01You have the best run blocking line in the league.
35:04You have the best unit on the field, Indianapolis's offense.
35:07They have a big special teams advantage on the numbers so far this year as well.
35:12I think Steichen's offense is going to be like, man, we played the Ravens and the Chiefs and the Texans.
35:18Hello, Washington. What a nice surprise to play not those teams anymore.
35:21I think that Washington defense is the weakest unit on the field.
35:25And look, they are number one in rushing DVOA defense so far.
35:29If that's real, I think this read is going to be bad, but I don't think it's real.
35:34Seattle can't run on anyone. Dallas and Philly, who Washington played, have banged up offensive lines.
35:39Saquon still had a decent enough game that one anyways.
35:42I don't really trust that Washington's run defense is going to shut this down.
35:46Washington, I think, is overrated right now after a very fluky Seattle win.
35:50Seattle absolutely dominated in that game. I took Colts minus three on Sunday night.
35:54I don't love that it has to be three and a half now, but I still make this a couple of points above that.
36:01So give me the Colts minus three and a half.
36:04And then I do a prop on this one as well.
36:07No escalator, just another prop here. I think we're going to get plenty of passing this one.
36:12I think, honestly, Washington should be able to pass.
36:15The Colts defense has not been great. I looked at like a Diggs touchdown plus 275.
36:20I'm going to go with Josh Downs though. Give me a Colts receiver.
36:24Advanced metrics darling. Finally kind of shining now. He's the receiver one.
36:27Pittman is gone. Pierce is out. And he's looked pretty good so far.
36:31Last two games for Downs, nine targets and 11.
36:34Seven for 72 and five for 77. Nothing great.
36:37Just solid. Just steady. That guy that's like your third fantasy receiver.
36:40And you're like, oh, you're just going to give me some points every week.
36:44I can handle that. Washington has allowed the most fantasy points to receivers so far this year.
36:49JSN and CD Lamb lit them up. Two scores each over 120 yards.
36:53Devante Smith had a nice game as well. Josh Downs is not those guys.
36:58It doesn't have to be. It's just over 62 and a half receiving yards at DraftKings as well.
37:03So Sunday morning, let's get a nice, easy Colts win.
37:06Let's get some Josh Downs being part of things.
37:09I was going to take Commanders until you reminded me and that I should have known that like I knew this and it hurt it.
37:16And then just like I keep forgetting the London nature of these games.
37:20I actually don't want anything on the London games because I'm on mountain time.
37:24And so like I don't like waking up already losing.
37:27Well, either way, it's usually losing. Right. And that sucks where you're like, and my day has begun.
37:32But even if you win, you don't get to enjoy how right you were.
37:37You didn't see it. Like I'm not getting up to watch this game.
37:41I'm not getting up to watch Colts Commanders. So listen, I'm honestly completely with you.
37:45I'm going to church on Sunday morning. I'm not going to watch this game.
37:49I'm not to catch up on it later. I don't prefer Sunday morning games.
37:53I'd personally take them off the schedule. But you know who likes Sunday morning games?
37:58Everyone else listening to the podcast right now is going to watch the Sunday morning game.
38:03So we're giving you the content. We're the playground, Matt.
38:06You're right. Give out a Sunday morning bet. I think it's gonna be the Colts.
38:10I do like that. I do lean commanders here and I will try and resist it because of the reasons I've stated.
38:17But like, I am just, I have been, I am on Colts win total overs, which probably aren't going to hit.
38:23I've liked them the first three weeks. I've been on them.
38:26I've been like, this team is good, even though the defense sucks.
38:30I am just though, just like, I don't know, man, if I can get the Colts minus three and a half as a favorite anywhere on the planet.
38:38Like, I'm not sure that like, they're that good.
38:41Um, I, I do not outside of Indianapolis. I'll say, um, it makes me very nervous here.
38:46Uh, this next one, I am with you on.
38:49I just think that this is, I, I, you know, it's interesting that you're going here.
38:53I would have thought that you would be trying to find some sort of way to bet one of the most miserable
39:00franchises in the NFL here, but they are, I guess not winless.
39:04So they don't qualify for that. Uh, you are laying the wood with the Ravens versus the Titans.
39:09Yeah. I'm just going to take the big number here.
39:12Ravens minus 11 and a half. There's an even odds out there.
39:15I'll take it. Look, this is not super complicated.
39:18There are few teams in the league. I like more than the Ravens.
39:22There are a few teams in the league. I like less than the Titans.
39:26That's pretty much it. 11 and a half is light.
39:29I make this over 14. The Titans didn't even score till five minutes left against the Giants.
39:34Cam Ward. It's not happening right now. This coaching staff looks lost.
39:38Like what, what even is anything about the Titans they feel good about?
39:42Let me answer for you. It's Jeffrey Simmons. And if this goes awry, it's Jeffrey Simmons against kind of a shoddy Ravens
39:48line, rookie center, third string guy now coming in.
39:51That will be why this goes wide that. And I don't love investing in the team coming back from Brazil without rest.
39:58I don't love that. But to me, that's the only case I could find for Tennessee.
40:02And it wasn't enough to get me off of this.
40:05Lamar Jackson as home favorite of over nine points undefeated 12 and 0.
40:09Straight up winning by 17 points a game, eight and four ATS.
40:13He's never won a game by less than a six in that spot.
40:17That would also make this a very nice teaser leg.
40:20That is a hundred percent hit rate to the teaser leg for Lamar here.
40:24Baltimore last 15 wins. 12 of them are by 13 points or more.
40:28That's going to cover us here. I, if I were pricing this, there's no way I'd put this under like 13 and a half.
40:35I don't want your teaser money. I don't want you to be able to get this under two touchdowns.
40:41I don't want any part of your Ravens money.
40:43We're not getting that. We're getting 11 and a half.
40:46So just give me Baltimore here. I do have two trends just to add on here.
40:51The Titans over the last two seasons, three seasons, excuse me, when facing a team that is above league average in rushing
40:58yards per attempt, just above league average, not elite, just above league average.
41:01They are three and 11 ATS in those games.
41:04Another nice one. This is not the side though.
41:07It's the total in the last three seasons when a team is, when they are facing an above league average team in
41:13rushing yards per game, 12 and two to the over those games are.
41:17So basically teams that can run, run it up big time on the Titans.
41:21I think I am going to play an over on this game.
41:25Okay. We will carry on and now we're going to head on over.
41:29Oh no. I just saw what we're doing here.
41:32All right, Brandon, talk me into your Los Angeles Chargers plus seven and a half versus the Seahawks.
41:37Yeah. That's our last side of the week. Chargers plus seven and a half.
41:41I do want the seven and a half. Make sure to find that at a book out there.
41:47If you can, we're going to try to catch the falling knife.
41:50So I know you want no part in Mike McDaniels offense against Mike McDonald's defense.
41:55That is not a thing you like right now.
41:57So Chargers have scored 14 to 16 points all three games.
42:01And I was against the Cardinals, Raiders and Bills.
42:03Now it's the Seahawks. Not great. We might just be DOA if Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy just come up the middle every play.
42:10And like, you know, an old Tecmo bowl, Matt, if you got the snap count right, you could just like dive through the center and tackle the quarterback.
42:19We might just be betting that all game long.
42:21That's not going to be great. But I don't really love Seattle's offense either.
42:26They can't run the ball at all right now.
42:28Jadarian Price is fumbling every game. They're third worst by DVOA rushing the football.
42:33Donald made a lot of mistakes last week. Really, the whole Seattle offense is JSN.
42:37And that's been enough so far. But last year, the Chargers only allowed two receivers to go over 100 yards.
42:43The guys that they had the biggest games against were big physical receivers, like an A.J.
42:48Brown type. That's not really JSN's game. If you can keep them even remotely in check, I don't think Seattle's offense is
42:54going to run away with things right here. I kind of like Tarheep still in this matchup against JSN.
43:00Genesis Smith at safety. Delshawn Phillips at linebacker. There are some dudes for the Chargers coming around here.
43:05I like the under in this game. And if I lean toward the I'm not going to play the under, but if
43:12I lean under and we have an underdog getting more than a touchdown, I have to like the spot for the Chargers
43:19is obviously for a team this bad. Any number of buy low trends I could have thrown at you.
43:24But I text you this one. Kitchen sink part two.
43:27Since 2021, when we expanded to the extra game and the extra playoff spots, teams that are still winless.
43:330-3 in week four facing a team over 500.
43:36Tiny sample. But they're 7-0. Perfect. 100% against the spread.
43:39Covering by almost a full touchdown. Including their 4-3 straight up.
43:42Only one of those 0-3 teams lost by more than four points.
43:45This is it for the Chargers. You might still be able to hang around, but this is it.
43:51Now look. The one team that lost by more than four was a two-touchdown underdog.
43:55So this trend would fit for Miami and Tennessee.
43:58I just bet against Tennessee. I think if you're dead by week three, you might be real dead.
44:03So that's why I'm not worried about that one.
44:06Seattle had six wins last year by one score.
44:09They won a game by three this year. They're only up Arizona by 10 in the fourth quarter until some late goofiness.
44:15I think this is just too high. It's too many points.
44:19It's the wrong side of the key number. I make it more like 6-6.5.
44:23I want the hook. Give me Chargers plus 7.5.
44:25Let's catch the knife. Braver man than I. I had Lane Seahawks, but I'm just going to stay away from it.
44:32I think the hook is why I'm concerned. I shouldn't be because the hooks are always built in for a reason where it's like...
44:39Yes. There's never a game where you're like, well, I would bet it if it was under the number.
44:44Well, then that wouldn't be the market. Now, would it?
44:47Like, it's literally the deciding factor on too many bets.
44:50I don't know. I might wind up with Seahawks anyway.
44:53We'll see. Okay. You do have some long shots for us here, and you're going to go ahead and go to Sunday
45:00Night Football, and you're going to play a Jameson Williams escalator all the way up on some very big long shots versus the Panthers.
45:07So you're telling me there's a chance. Yeah, I'm really excited about this one.
45:11I think, Matt, I think this is the most fun bet you can make on Sunday.
45:16We're going to have some fun here to wrap up our Sunday night.
45:20Sunday night is not supposed to be fun. It's the first of three straight primetime NFC South games.
45:25So buckle up for that one. I think at least we're going to get points on this one.
45:31Both secondaries ravaged by injuries. You know about the Detroit stuff, but now this week, Carolina just lost both of their two
45:37cornerbacks, JC Horn and Mike Jackson, who both are pretty good, by the way.
45:42So that is a real loss. I don't really know if Carolina can move the ball on the Lions.
45:47I think maybe they can. I don't know. So I'm not doing a side, but the Lions are going to score some points.
45:54Like, I think Amon Ross should have a big game.
45:57I looked at T-Mac props. I think he could have a big game.
46:01I'm going to do the lottery ticket on Jamison Williams, and I got excited about some of the correlation stuff here.
46:07So he's not been good this year. He's had 10 catches for 127 yards, pretty much a non-factor through three games.
46:13But he's still playing 87% of the snaps. He hasn't hit the big one yet.
46:18Well, this is a pretty good spot to hit the big one against a team that just ran out of cornerbacks for the season.
46:25And so last two years, Jamison never had more than three straight games below 66.
46:30That's the old leg. He's due. Guess what? He's due.
46:33He's been under 66 yards, three straight games. So it's time to get hit one.
46:37Last year, he had seven games below 66 yards.
46:40All seven of those were way low, 43 or below.
46:43It's just similar to this year. He hasn't even hit a 50 yet this year.
46:47All of those, he also has very few catches.
46:50The other games, the other 10 games at 66 yards or more, he has at least four catches, all but one of them.
46:57He had a touchdown in seven of 10, and he's going away over that number, averaging 97 yards a game.
47:03So what does all that mean? There's a lot of numbers.
47:06Here's what it means. No median outcomes for Jamison Williams.
47:09Either he's invisible and you forgot he was on the team, or he gets a long one and you're like, man, Jamison Williams breakout is here.
47:17That's what we're looking at. So here are the lines for Williams.
47:20Over three and a half. That's a crazy line.
47:23If he goes over that, the yards and touchdown numbers are way off.
47:27Over 15 and a half yards. That's like no man's land.
47:30That is not what you want on Jamison. I want either under all the way, or I want a big escalator.
47:36And I think with no corners in this game, you want the big escalator.
47:41So here's what we're going to do. No median outcomes.
47:44That's why this is in the long shot section.
47:46We're going straight to 70 plus yards at plus 194.
47:49He hit that almost half the games last year.
47:52And he's had no streaks of under 66 in a row, four games in a row in the last couple of seasons.
47:59So 70 yards, almost two to one odds. When he has those games of 66 yards or better, he almost always gets a touchdown.
48:06He's had a lot of touchdowns in those games.
48:08Last two seasons, 14 games with a touchdown. He's only gone under 66 yards one of those times.
48:14So that's very correlated because guess why? He's getting like a 40 or 50 yard touchdown.
48:19His speed is just running right by everyone. So here's the next one.
48:2270 yards plus a touchdown at plus 515. And how about 100 yards?
48:26He's had 700 yard games in his career. Guess what?
48:29All 700 yard games came with a touchdown. Again, not coincidental.
48:33If he gets the big yards, it's because he took one to the house.
48:37100 yards and a touchdown is 10 to one.
48:39I think that is a crazy number, man. I think these bets are being treated separately when they're highly, highly correlated.
48:46I think we're getting outrageous prices. And at Sunday night, after you've been watching football for like 15 hours starting in London,
48:52why not just watch like a 50 point shootout and hope for James Williams just bust a long one?
48:58I think this is the most fun way you can end your Sunday evening.
49:02All right. You can track those in the Action Network app.
49:05You've got one more long shot here. Go ahead and give it to me.
49:10It's time for our weekly tight end against the Bengals prop.
49:13And it's time for our weekly who prop? Nate Borkercher.
49:16Touchdown against the Bengals. That is what I like here.
49:19It's a made up name. I don't know what happened in this game.
49:23This is probably the least I've felt a read on a game.
49:26Offense or defense. Jaguars and Bengals. I do worry about Jaguars offensive line against that improved Bengals defensive line.
49:32That's a little bit the angle here. And of course, a lot of it, the angle is Bengals giving up tight end points.
49:39The most points in fantasy the last two years.
49:42We know about our Dalton Schultz hit, obviously. Last year, the Bengals allowed 16 tight end touchdowns.
49:47Basically one per game. That's the most of any team.
49:50Including such luminaries as Josh Oliver, Brock Wright, Darnell Washington, Jackson Haas.
49:53You know what's anything in common with those guys?
49:56Those are big blocking tight end twos. That is Nate Borkercher.
49:59He was one of the shock picks of this year's draft.
50:02Second round Nebraska blocking tight end. Everyone made fun of Jacksonville all night.
50:06He's been really good so far. He's blocking great.
50:09Jacksonville's playing heavier. Lots of two tight end sets.
50:12They're running the ball much better because he's out there blocking.
50:15I think they need him out there blocking with the Bengals improvement on their offensive line.
50:20So Nate Borkercher so far is one catch in his NFL career, Matt.
50:24We need a second one because we need a touchdown.
50:27It's 12 to 1 at DraftKings. And why stop at 12 to 1?
50:31Is that really a long shot? How about an escalator on Nate Borkercher?
50:34Last year, the Bengals allowed the opponent tight end to score the first touchdown three times.
50:39Everyone loves these first touchdown bets. I've never done one of these before.
50:43I want in on the fun. First touchdown, Nate Borkercher.
50:46Give me like a two-yard goal line stand. Leaks out, cross the field, back of the corner.
50:5165 to 1, Nate Borkercher. Let's go. Have you spoken with Joe Gallant about this?
50:56Have you consulted Joe Gallant about this? I've been asking about this one.
51:00I'll tell you this. I saw Jacksonville play heavy tight ends the first week of the season.
51:05I had a tweet about how Brian Thomas is not playing that much.
51:08I was like, man, that's a lot of tight ends on the field.
51:12And that week I circled, when am I going to play Nate Borkercher?
51:16He's going to be on the field a bunch when I'm going to play him.
51:21And then, you know, I told you last week, I get to my each week.
51:25I look at the matchup. I'm like, OK, do I like this matchup?
51:29Do I like this player, this angle against this team?
51:32OK, who's playing the Bengals this week? Who's the tight end?
51:35Oh, it's Nate Borkercher week. So he's going to have one target probably all game.
51:40Let's hope we get the right one. OK, I am glad that I was able to get through that without having to
51:46try and pronounce Nate Borkercher's name as I did not in any way.
51:50I looked it up a bunch of times. Shape or form.
51:54Know who that person is. I'm not trying to be a square.
51:57We can play a game to pass the time.
52:00Nobody even plays four square anymore. All right, time for our four square parlay presented by DraftKings.
52:05We're going to get set for the DK Pick'em Contest that we both have entries in and put together our four square parlay presented by DraftKings.
52:13We're going head to head because Brandon likes to embarrass me.
52:16Last week, Brandon went three and two. I went two and three.
52:20He's up four. Oh, on the season. He's nine and six.
52:23I am seven and eight. I consider my contest life to be effectively over because I haven't hit five.
52:28Oh, I don't know if I've ever hit five.
52:31Oh, but we're going to keep going because I like these contests.
52:35And seven and eight, you'll be fine. You just got to get some good weeks in a row.
52:40Four square parlay. I give Brandon a lot of my dumb square sides and he picks the best of them to put
52:47into a four team parlay just on the spread plus 1250 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
52:51Here's your menu for this week. Brandon, I am going to start off with the Eagles plus two and a half.
52:57You're not even getting the best of the number here.
53:00It's one of the few cases where it locks early and you get the worst of a number.
53:06It's plus three in the market. This is plus two and a half.
53:09I know that I am worried about the Ram stuff.
53:12I may buy out of my bet, but I am going to go ahead and include it in the contest because I
53:19do think it's like I need to start taking some counter directional angles and I will go ahead and grab Eagles plus two and a half.
53:27Raiders plus four and a half. Giants plus one and a half only, but Giants plus one and a half.
53:33Broncos plus two and a half. Commanders plus three and a half.
53:36Cowboys plus two and a half. Atlanta plus two and a half.
53:40All dogs for me this week on the menu.
53:43So you have to pick four of those. Eagles, Raiders, Giants, Broncos, Commanders, Cowboys, Falcons.
53:47Which of the four you're going to take? This is not a very square menu, Matt.
53:52I think I need to see a little more square sides out of you.
53:56Give me all underdogs on the menu here. You can't even give me like a Buccaneers underdog or Jags underdog.
54:02Okay, let's do it. Giants, obviously. First one plus one and a half.
54:06I'll take them. Give me the Falcons two and a half.
54:09I wanted Falcons three. I wish there was a three and a half.
54:13I like Bijan Robinson to just run all over the Saints.
54:16I think the Falcons could win that one. So Giants, Falcons.
54:20Now it's ugly because I really did not appreciate the menu you gave me this week.
54:24I guess I'll go Raiders here. Four and a half.
54:27For the last five meetings, Raiders Chiefs were one score.
54:30We get the key numbers, the three and the four.
54:33Maybe we just get like the Mahomes last minute drive field goal.
54:37I think the Chiefs will win that one. But we'll take the four and a half points.
54:42And then I'm directly betting against Washington. I'm directly betting against Dallas.
54:46I'm heavily leaning against Denver. That leaves only the Eagles plus two and a half.
54:50Technically, that's slight value on the number. I make that one at two points.
54:54So give me the Eagles. Giants, Falcons, Raiders, Eagles, all underdogs.
54:57Plus 1250. That is our week four, four square parlay at DraftKings.
55:01I like it. Should be fun. We'll see if we can hit that one this week.
55:06For my contest, I am going to play Raiders plus four and a half.
55:10Look, just you're like this is again. I think simultaneously Kansas City is being undervalued by the sharp smarties that are like,
55:17well, I haven't been very impressed with them. Like they covering that game last week was meaningful to me.
55:22You know why? Because those are the games the Chiefs don't cover when it's like, oh, they should easily cover versus this trash team.
55:29And I thought there are times when I was like, oh, God, they're going to lose this game outright.
55:35Oh, God. And so I understand the temptation to be like, well, see, like it was close.
55:40It was actually close. But the fact that they put it away.
55:44Here's what we have in three in three weeks.
55:46We have the Chiefs when everyone thought Andy Reid was not going to run the ball, ran it all over the Broncos.
55:53And then when everybody's like up. Chiefs is more than a field goal favorite on the road.
55:58Andy Reid just puts it in coast mode. They put it away and covered.
56:02So I'm kind of like the Chiefs are a little bit different.
56:06Four and a half on the road. Come on now.
56:09Come on now. Nine. I do four and a half for the home field flip.
56:13Nine at home versus an undefeated team. No, no.
56:16That line's wrong. I want Eagles plus two and a half for the reasons I mentioned.
56:21I'm with you on Giants plus one and a half.
56:24Broncos plus two and a half. This is pretty strictly.
56:27I've been asking Brandon every week in our text.
56:29Is this the week that the Niners injuries catch up with them and their season falls apart?
56:35Is this the week that the Niners injuries catch up with them and they fall apart?
56:39And he's been like, I don't know. Maybe. I don't know.
56:43Maybe. And now I'm kind of like, yeah, this is probably the one.
56:46It just feels like the Broncos, who are I genuinely do not think are that good, are going to walk out of
56:53here being three and one and everybody being like, hey, Broncos are back.
56:57When I do not think they are as good as that record.
57:00And they're just going to catch the Niners here in a spot where the injuries catch up with them.
57:06Um, Cowboys plus two and a half, I think is one that we probably could have talked about longer if we had more time.
57:13Because I do think that the game is super interesting.
57:16Yeah. Basically on this is like, it's three now.
57:19And that this is where I will, I will buy in actually on betting side.
57:23Look, it's fine. If you want to keep like, there's lots of numbers that suggest that the beloved preseason Texans are good.
57:30I just cannot in good conscience look at this and be like, yeah, no, they're, they're, they're substantially better than a team that has not completely wept.
57:38But the, the Texans could not score on the Colts.
57:41That's a problem. Like if you can't score on the Colts, your offense is broken.
57:46You can't be like, well, they're facing this terrible Cowboys defense.
57:49The Colts. So that's where I get to on the Cowboys.
57:52So mine are going to be Raiders plus four and a half Eagles plus two and a half Giants plus one and a half.
57:59Broncos plus two and a half and Cowboys plus two and a half.
58:03Give me your five plays for the contest. Yeah, I'll keep this real quick.
58:07Cause I already made the case for four of these Giants plus one and a half.
58:12Don't love pick them in a contest, but you know, I wish we had the two and a half.
58:18I'll take the one and a half. Trust my numbers.
58:21Ravens minus 11 and a half Colts minus three and a half.
58:24We gave out above as favorites chargers plus seven and a half.
58:28And then last one I said before, I wasn't going to make you bet the box plus three and a half, but
58:35I am going to take the box plus three and a half in the contest.
58:39Since this is not a bet, this is a contest pick.
58:42I'm like that one close to coin flip. So Ravens Colts favorites and Giants chargers box as ugly underdogs.
58:48Jameis Winston, the Ravens laying double digits. Daniel Jones in London.
58:51Favorite. Favorite. In London. The Owen three disaster zone chargers.
58:54And Jalen Daniels with a rookie quarterback. That's how Brandon gets it done.
58:58A rookie undrafted debut quarterback. Let's go. Four square parlay again is going to be Giants, Falcons, Raiders, Eagles, all on the spread.
59:05Plus 1250 at DraftKings. Don't forget to download the DraftKings sports app and use promo code Action Network when you sign up.
59:12DraftKings. The crown is yours. Let's look ahead. Let's give it a shot.
59:15How about next week? I got my mindset on you.
59:18I got my mindset on you. Brandon, we got a look ahead spot here and you're going to include a mineshaft on it.
59:25Tell me the look ahead to week five. We're going Vikings.
59:29Vikings minus one and a half at the Saints.
59:31As always, just trying to get ahead of the line move.
59:35So what happened this weekend? We can talk about it, but Vikings play the Dolphins.
59:39They should crush the Dolphins. They're big home favorites.
59:42Saints play Monday night against Atlanta. I do worry, as I said, about their run defense against Bajon.
59:47If the Saints lose, it's hard to not see this getting to three or higher.
59:52It's already two and a half at DraftKings. I make this Vikings three and a half.
59:56Minnesota's improved run attack, I think, can run on New Orleans.
60:00And you get Brian Flores' defense. It's so good right now.
60:03And it's not going to last all year the way they are.
60:06But Saints' offensive line is a little bit up for grabs.
60:10Tyler Shuck, not a great pocket presence guy. Too many mistakes.
60:13That is not what you can do against Minnesota's defense.
60:16Saints are on a short week off Monday night.
60:19The Vikings are going into their bye week. So you can kind of empty the tank here.
60:24I like that spot as well. In week five and six, you'll want the road favorites.
60:29Since 2021, road favorites under a touchdown. 39 and 16 ATS, 71%.
60:32Give me the Vikings, minus one and a half.
60:35Let's get ahead of the possible key number there.
60:38Brandon and I are very far apart on our Tyler Shuck analysis.
60:41I think Tyler Shuck is like a pretty fun guy who's high upside, kind of a gunslinger, makes big plays, comes with
60:48some mistakes as he's young, but is a good quarterback.
60:51And Brandon thinks he kind of sucks. A little bit.
60:54Like a little bit? Is that fair to say you think he kind of sucks?
60:58I wouldn't say. I would probably not say the word sucks.
61:01I think that he is a fun quarterback to watch.
61:04And a fun quarterback to bet against. Gotcha. But I can't hate this.
61:08Vikings minus one and a half, especially with the injuries to the Saints.
61:12I think that that's probably a good look there on the look ahead.
61:16Vikings minus one and a half. Get ahead of it today.
61:19All right. That'll do it here on the Action Network podcast for our NFL Week 4 episode of Brandon's Playground presented by DraftKings Sportsbook.
61:27Don't forget to download the free award-winning Action Network app and follow Brandon for more picks you might be adding into the app before Sunday.
61:34And if you want instant notifications before these lines move and where all of our action experts track their bets, go to
61:41actionnetwork.com slash pro and use the promo code POD20 for $20 off a year of Action Pro.
61:46You can check out Playbook on X for quick slips, or we've got all these bets ready for you on the quick slip page.
61:53Just visit actionnetwork.com slash bet right now. It's in the episode description as well.
61:57Thanks for listening. Enjoy the slate and good luck with all your bets this weekend.
62:01And this has been the Action Network podcast. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly.
62:06If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
More episodes from The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast
NFL Touchdown Show | Week 4
Oct 1, 2026
NFL Week 4 Betting Preview
Sep 30, 2026
NFL Futures Watch | Week 4
Sep 29, 2026
NFL Betting Playground | Week 3
Sep 25, 2026
NFL Touchdown Show | Week 3
Sep 25, 2026
NFL Week 3 Betting Preview
Sep 23, 2026